Financial inclusion is a public policy objective that fosters development through access to financial services for all. Financial inclusion can be defined as access, usage and quality of financial services. Inclusion of individuals and small enterprises has made considerable progress but it has also reached excesses in some situations. Regulatory changes and technological innovation have helped the expansion of financial services. Our contribution to the literature is threefold. First, we expand the large body of research that focuses on financial inclusion based on access to credit, through our analysis of payments. We provide an unique analysis of the quality dimension of payments, which we define as a catalyst between the access and usage dimensions. Second, we provide a detailed analysis of the Brazilian payment market, which transacts close to $400bn per year, in the scarce literature on developing countries. Third, we isolate the determinants of electronic payments through statistical methods, including a principal component analysis and auto regressive models (SARIMA, SARIMAX), which have not yet been used by researchers. We find that four macro characteristicshave a strong explanatory power: bank credit card lending, active population, retail sales and cash-in-circulation. Suprisingly, we find that cash-in-circulation presents a positive relationship with electronic payments, suggesting a possible distrust of citizens towards the banking system, high levels of informality, and shedding a new light on the precautionary principle described by Keynes. Our analysis is based on monthly deflated card payment data for Brazil from January 2007 to March 2017. / A Inclusão financeira é um objetivo de política pública que procura desenvolvimento através do acesso de todos aos serviços financeiros. Esse conceito pode ser definido com as suas três dimensões de acesso, uso e qualidade dos serviços. A inclusão de indivíduos e empresas conheceu uma melhora significativa, e em algum casos, apresentou excessos. Adaptações regulatórias e inovação tecnológica serviram de pano de fundo para a inclusão. Apresentamos as três contribuições da nossa pesquisa. Primeiro, existe ampla literatura sobre inclusão financeira com foco em crédito, e apresentamos um estudo original sobre pagamentos e sua dimensão de qualidade, definida como o catalisador entre acesso e uso. Segundo: nossa pesquisa apresenta uma análise única do setor de pagamentos no Brasil, um setor com faturamento de mais de R$1.2 trilhões de reais anuais, no âmbito da escassa literatura sobre economias em desenvolvimento. A terceira contribuição apresenta os determinantes dos meios de pagamentos eletrônicos, usando modelos estatísticos originais, como componentes principais e modelos auto regressivos (SARIMA, SARIMAX), que não tinham sido usados na literatura de inclusão financeira. Identificamos quatro características com significância para explicar meios eletrônicos: crédito bancário, população ativa, vendas do varejo e dinheiro em posse das famílias. De maneira surpreendente, dinheiro em posse das famílias apresentou correlação positiva com meios eletrônicos, sinalizando uma desconfiança dos consumidores com o setor bancário ou um maior grau de informalidade da economia brasileira, e trazendo uma interpretação original ao princípio de precaução descrito por Keynes. Nossa pesquisa se baseou em dados agregados e deflacionados de pagamentos para o Brasil entre Janeiro de 2007 e Março de 2017.

<p>The purpose of this thesis work was to make a survey of current on-line payment technologies and find out which are they and how do they work? Compare and analyze them from a security point of view, as well as a usability point of view. What is good? What is bad? What is lacking?</p><p>To achieve this purpose, an overview of the current on-line payment technologies was acquired through academic books and papers, Internet sites, magazines. Basic cryptographic and security related techniques were studied for the security analysis of current on-line payment systems.</p><p>In this work, various current on-line payment systems were classified into two groups [Macro and Micro on-line payment systems]. This classification was based on the mode of on-line payment transactions. To analyze these on-line payment systems, a set of payment system requirements were formed [Security Issues, Usability Issues, Anonymity, Scalability etc].</p><p>Under the category of Macro payment system, Credit Card payment system, Debit Card payment system, Stored Value Card payment system, Electronic Check payment system, Electronic Cash payment system, Electronic account transfer payment system and mobile payment system transactions were examined.</p><p>Under the category of Micro payment system, Hash Chain based Payment System, Hash Collisions and Hash sequences based Payment Systems, Shared Secrete Keys based Payment Systems and Probability based payment systems were examined.</p><p>Based on the requirements of payment system, these on-line payment systems were analyzed and compared. In the analysis phase, the advantages and drawbacks of these payment systems were figured out.</p><p>It was found from the study that the credit card based payment systems are the most widely used means of conducting on-line payments. It is evident that credit card based payment systems satisfy stakeholder requirements the best, as they offer more flexible payment options, having a large user-base, benefit from familiarity and simplicity of use and also allow international payments. The other on-line payment systems lack this flexibility</p><p>It can also be extracted from the study that users want more simplified, convenient and secure on-line payment systems. Thus the futuristic on-line payment systems will have all secure payment options into one system.</p>

隨著金融自由化、國際化的趨勢，加上國民所得提高、電子化的普及，使得信用卡市場蓬勃發展，國內各大銀行紛紛積極投入信用卡發卡行列。台灣的信用卡市場競爭的程度，從各發卡銀行所提供消費者的各項附加服務，如辦卡送禮、持卡免年費、失卡零風險、購物優惠…等，幾乎都已是每一張信用卡的基本配備。 隨著卡債、卡奴的事件爆發，銀行業者舊有的信用卡行銷策略已經宣告失敗，但信用卡市場背後帶來的經濟效益，仍然是不容忽視，如今，要如何增加信用卡市場的佔有率已不是銀行業者的行銷重點，高佔有率並不一定就能帶來高經濟效益。銀行業者的行銷策略應該是做好信用卡市場區隔，找出不同特性的消費族群，依消費族者選擇信用卡的考量因素擬定行銷策略，進而提升市場競爭地位。 本研究選用四種模型建置方式，分別為羅吉斯迴歸、C5.0、CHAID以及類神經網路，經由分類矩陣評估比較四種模型，其中C5.0不論是在整體預測正確率、反查率或準確度，皆是高於其它三個模型，故最後選擇C5.0此一模型。 透過C5.0共獲得七項影響「是否有使用信用卡」之相關變數，其中「是否有出國旅行」、「經濟來源是否為自己」、「性別」、「是否畢業後找工作」、「是否有使用網路消費」、「認同環保意識」、「是否有投資或買保險」，此七項變數對使用信用卡消費具較大影響力，最後本研究會針對這些變數再給與發卡銀行建議。 【關鍵字】信用卡、資料採礦、C5.0、CHAID、類神經網路 / As the trend of financial liberalization and globalization and also the popularization of electronic business and the increase of domestic income, the credit card market has bloomed vigorously then ever, banks are urging on developing credit card markets. All those additional service of every bank could be seen as a clue to know the competitiveness in Taiwan, such as free gift, free annual fee, zero risk of losing cards, shopping discount…etc., and those service almost become a basic equipment of every credit card. With credit debt and credit card slaves increasing, bank’s former marketing strategies have failed. The economic benefits of credit card market still are not ignored. Today, how to increase market share of credit card is not the key point of bank’s marketing strategy. There is not necessary that high market share can bring high economic benefits. In order to follow this trend, the study aims to discover the corn factors of possessing credit cards through the application of Clementine 12.0 software. Since Decision Tree-C5.0 is excellent in the forecast accuracy and validity as compared to Logistic Regression, Decision Tree-CHAID and Neural Net were adopted in this research. Through using Decision Tree-C5.0, this study identified seven factors that have greater impact on using credit cards and they are”Whether respondent travel abroad”,“Is the source of income making by yourself”,“Gender”,“Do respondent look for jobs after graduating from school”,“Do respondent buy something on the internet”,“Approve the environmental awareness”.This research will chiefly use these seven factors to provide the marketing portfolio strategy recommendations for banks. Keywords：Credit Card, Data Mining, C5.0, CHAID, Neural Net

銀行個人金融中，信用卡產品的競爭相當激烈，而為了吸引持卡人消費，行銷人員也設計了許多的信用卡行銷優惠。現有銀行的資訊部門為了滿足新行銷方案的設計與行銷方案優惠的判斷，採取的作法是在現有的系統上不斷的新增外掛程式，來滿足新的需求，但這樣的作法會產生許多問題，每當一個新的行銷優惠方案產生後，就必須在現有系統上新增外掛，不但可能會危及現有系統的穩定度，同時這些外掛的系統會造成系統的複雜度，增加維護與修改的困難度與成本。 本研究運用邏輯符號以及物件導向的觀念，分析行銷人員設計信用卡行銷優惠方案，提出規則模型以及事實模型。規則模型提供了一套通用的邏輯符號架構，並將邏輯的表達透過XML的標準，轉化成電腦可處理的形式；而事實模型架構出通用的事實模版架構，提供在事實與實際資料庫對應上的處理標準。並透過以規則為基礎的推論機制，建構出實際的系統，來驗證研究的可行性。希望透過本研究的規則模型以及事實模型架構，將行銷人員的知識結構化與知識儲存，達到邏輯符號的可重複使用性與可延伸性，並提供了系統未來修改與延伸的彈性與準則，改善過去新增行銷優惠方案時，就必須增加外掛系統的問題。 / Competition for credit card is sharp in personal finance of banking and financial service industry. In order to attract customer to use credit card, the marketing staff designs lots of marketing campaigns. But for information system department of the bank, it takes more effort to manage and process these campaigns. The approach that the information system staff uses is to create lots of plug-in systems. But this approach harms the stability of the system architecture and increases the complexity of maintenance and cost. In this research, we use the concept of symbolic logic and object-oriented concept to analysis how the marketing staff designs the credit card campaigns and provide the rule model and fact model. The rule model provides standard symbolic logic architecture and uses the XML standard to transform logic symbols into RuleML. The fact model is a standard architecture and provides the mapping between facts and database. And we build a prototype rule-based system to validate the feasibility. The research contributes to construct and store the knowledge of credit card marketing campaign of the marketing staff by the rule model and the fact model. And the rule-based system in this research also provides flexibility and modifiability in the future to reform the drawback of original plug-in system approach.

企業透過併購為了要獲得更多資源以建立競爭優勢的策略。過去很多研究關注在兩家公司之間的流程與資源整合，而忽略合併後因為文化與系統整合的衝突而產生對顧客關係管理的影響。理論上，合併後的公司除了獲得更多資源之外也要能夠獲得更多的顧客，但是實際上因為兩家公司組織間擁有不同的企業流程、文化與資訊系統，有可能無法維持顧客關係的水準。本研究的目的希望了解企業併購對顧客關係管理的影響以及希望找出影響顧客關係管理的成功因素。本研究選擇金融產業的信用卡業務作為研究對象，因為在金融產業裡消費金融是一項需要依賴顧客關係管理，才能維繫顧客忠誠度與獲得更多的顧客。 本研究透過文獻蒐集找出可能影響顧客關係管理的關鍵因素，建立研究架構。並透過兩階段驗證與及擴充研究架構。第一階段，我們先定義出與顧客關係管理相關的信用卡指標，然後蒐集台灣過去八年有從事合併活動的銀行在信用卡業務上的資料，並透過指標分析以了解銀行在合併前至合併後的顧客關係管理成效，目的是希望了解企業在併購後顧客關係管理的維繫。第二階段，我們針對所選的個案去做深度的跨個案研究，目的是希望了解企業可以維持顧客關係的重要成功因素。 本研究結果透過跨個案分析驗證我們在文獻中發現的關鍵因素，並說明這些因素如何影響顧客關係。此外還發現可能會影響管理顧客關係的其他影響因素。本研究發現關鍵因素分別為1.顧客重整與服務調整2.服務文化調整3.流程整合4.資訊整合5.溝通6.組織慣性改變7.企業轉換時標準程序的建立8.合併後的顧客關懷。而影響併購後顧客關係管理的因素分別為1.策略目的2.客群的規模3.品牌效益4.組織心態。透過本研究可了解併購後維繫顧客關係的重要性，並提供影響顧客關係管理的成功因素，以幫助企業維繫顧客忠誠度與獲得更多的顧客。 / Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) represent a strategic approach for businesses to acquire resources and build competitive advantages. Many studies have investigated the process and results of the resource integration between two firms. Some cases have revealed satisfactory results in building asset portfolios and some cases uncovered a downside to merger due to conflicts in cultural and system integration. One of the key objectives of business acquisition is to expand business operations in providing customers with superior products and services. However, there is limited understanding about how customers react to the post-merger services. In theory, the merged enterprise should be able to leverage the assets and knowledge in growing and retaining customers, but in reality the customer relationships may not be well managed because of a lack of synergy between the merged organizations. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of mergers and acquisitions on customer relationship management (CRM), and we select the credit card business in the banking industry as our focus of study. Finance industries, especially consumer banks, rely heavily on CRM for targeting customers, promoting services, building deep knowledge, and generating revenue. M&A is the most applied approach in increasing business scope and enhancing services for engaging more customers. Based on the literature about M&A and CRM, this study builds a framework for data collection, and the study is conducted in two stages. First, we collect data on CRM performance of credit card business in banks in Taiwan that have experienced M&A in the past eight years, and we compare CRM performance before and after mergers. Second, we do in-depth case study on selected cases regarding possible causes for CRM success in post-merger. The research results not only verified and enhanced the list of critical factors for CRM success but also discovered influential factors that can affect the effectiveness of CRM after merger. The critical factors are: strategy for rebuilding customer base and service portfolio, service culture, process integration, technology integration, communication and organizational inertia, standard of procedures of the business transition and customer care after the merger. The additional influential factors are: strategic purpose, customer base, brand effect, and organizational mindsets. It is hoped that we can learn from these cases about managing customer relationships after a merger and help companies develop effective plans for building synergy in CRM after M&A.

Submitted by JONAS MARCHETTI (jonas.marchetti@gmail.com) on 2015-03-04T02:02:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Jonas_Simoes_Coelho_Marchetti.pdf: 738783 bytes, checksum: 95af4abacbaf288580dd0c89b2ce4b78 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-03-04T17:28:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Jonas_Simoes_Coelho_Marchetti.pdf: 738783 bytes, checksum: 95af4abacbaf288580dd0c89b2ce4b78 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-04T18:27:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Jonas_Simoes_Coelho_Marchetti.pdf: 738783 bytes, checksum: 95af4abacbaf288580dd0c89b2ce4b78 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-09 / Until June 2011, in Brazil, each credit card company was responsible for its own minimum payment due policy, which defines the minimum percentage of the invoice that should be paid by the customer. From July of that same year, the Central Bank of Brazil - BACEN has established by law the minimum percentage of 15% of the total statement, as a minimum payment amount. This study assesses the effects of this change in credit card policy from a theoretical point of view. This policy might have the following effects: increased short-term default, change the volume financed and anchoring impact. To empirically investigate this effect I used invoice and payment information, in the preceding and subsequent implementation period. This institutional change effects are identified by the method of difference in differences, the effects of the new law in short term financed volume caused by the credit crunch and anchoring. Results indicates that the adjusted minimum impact on the number of customers overdue. Moreover, variations were not observed in the number of customers who have paid more than the minimum payment required by legislation. This result contrasts the use of the minimum as anchoring and increases the default in the short term, caused by the increase in the minimum payment. / No Brasil, até junho de 2011, cada banco emissor de cartões de crédito estipulava, por critérios próprios, o percentual mínimo da fatura que deveria ser pago pelo cliente. A partir de julho daquele mesmo ano, o Banco Central do Brasil – BACEN, estabeleceu o percentual de 15% do total da fatura, como valor de pagamento mínimo. Em vista disso, este estudo busca analisar as consequências dessa alteração na política de cartões de crédito. Do ponto de vista teórico, uma política desse tipo pode ter os seguintes efeitos: aumento da inadimplência de curto prazo, alteração do volume financiado e diferentes impactos em anchoring. Para investigar empiricamente esse efeito são utilizadas informações de fatura e pagamento destes clientes, nos momentos anteriores e posteriores à implantação da regulamentação do BACEN. Tal mudança institucional permite identificar, através do método de diferenças em diferenças, os efeitos da nova lei na inadimplência e alteração de volume financiado no curto prazo, provocados pela restrição ao crédito, e anchoring. As estimações indicam que a alteração do mínimo impactou no número de clientes em atraso, também é observada uma redução no volume financiado dos clientes que pagavam mais que 20% da fatura. Por outro lado, não são observadas variações na quantidade de clientes que pagaram mais que o mínimo exigido na regulamentação. Este resultado indica que a elevação do mínimo está positivamente correlacionada com o volume de pagamento para clientes que costumam fazer pagamentos superiores a 20% e aumenta a inadimplência no curto prazo, causada pela elevação do pagamento mínimo.

Submitted by Danilo Braun Santos (danilobraun@gmail.com) on 2016-02-02T14:55:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_DaniloBraunSantos.pdf: 1948390 bytes, checksum: 413a446ba14b77d36c85ff61e90851ca (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Boa tarde Danilo, Para que possamos aprovar seu trabalho é necessário as seguintes alterações: A DEDICATÓRIA deve ser feita do lado direito e inferior da pagina. AGRADECIMENTO, RESUMO E ABSTRACT, devem ser em letra maiúscula, centralizado e negrito. Lembrando que é necessário tirar os pontinhos que se dão como tópicos. Por gentileza, apos fazer as correções submeter novamente. Att, Pâmela Tonsa 3799-7852 on 2016-02-02T15:42:50Z (GMT) / Submitted by Danilo Braun Santos (danilobraun@gmail.com) on 2016-02-02T20:19:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_DaniloBraunSantos.pdf: 1948311 bytes, checksum: 4e017f373e615b676f9c17f3da00ccb0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2016-02-03T09:17:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_DaniloBraunSantos.pdf: 1948311 bytes, checksum: 4e017f373e615b676f9c17f3da00ccb0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-03T10:13:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_DaniloBraunSantos.pdf: 1948311 bytes, checksum: 4e017f373e615b676f9c17f3da00ccb0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-27 / How to guide public policies in order to promote people´s well-being? In order to answer this question the academic community has focused on the necessity of understanding better the individual consumer choices. This trend is supported by the growing number of microdata bases provided by the government agencies and the private sector. The aim of this study is to analyze the choices of Brazilians towards financing decisions and labor supply. The work is divided into three distinct empirical essays. The focus of the first essay is to verify how the informal credit markets are stimulated by financial education deficit. Considering more than 2,000 notes on taken credit, a multinomial logit model was used to estimate the propensity to informal credit taken in contrast to bank credit. The results indicate that financial education can have greater relevance to the selection of informal forms of financing than credit tightening measures. The second essay analyzes the use of credit cards among 1,458 young adults that live in Brazil, USA or France. A structural equation model is used to establish links between latent variables. The model validated by the study represents a situation in which the financial well-being is affected by the way the individual uses the credit card, and this use, in turn, is affected by the sense of social comparison and by the financial self-confidence, which is influenced by the financial education received from parents. Comparing groups, we found evidence that social comparison has a stronger effect on young Brazilians, and that men are more influenced by parental education than women. In the last essay, Brazil´s poor population is analyzed towards a so called laziness effect, that would be caused by a decrease in labor supply because of the families that receive the financial benefit from the government by means of the Bolsa Família Program. A survival model was used to compare the length of employment among program beneficiaries and a control group, using a database of over 3 million people. The hypothesis of a laziness effect is rejected. The risk of employee resignation among beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program is measured to be 7% to 10% lower, which is able to set aside, for example, the largest risk of employee resignation that is caused by the presence of young children in family composition. Since the change of employment hinders the receipt of pensions for length of service, it can be concluded that the Brazilian income transfer program will have a positive impact on the future financial well-being of the worker. / Como orientar políticas públicas de modo a promover o bem-estar da população? Para responder a essa questão a comunidade acadêmica tem enfocado a necessidade de se conhecer melhor as escolhas de consumo individuais. Essa tendência encontra apoio no número, cada vez maior, de bases de microdados disponibilizadas pelos órgãos governamentais e iniciativa privada. O presente trabalho analisa as escolhas dos brasileiros com relação às decisões de financiamento e de oferta de trabalho. O estudo é dividido em três ensaios empíricos distintos. Como a contratação de crédito em mercados informais é motivada pelo déficit de educação financeira é o foco do primeiro ensaio. Considerando mais de 2.000 observações sobre tomadas de crédito, utiliza-se um modelo logit multinomial para estimar a propensão à tomada de crédito na informalidade em contraste com o crédito bancário. Os resultados indicam que a educação financeira pode ter uma relevância maior para a seleção de financiamentos informais do que a restrição de crédito. O segundo ensaio analisa o comportamento de uso de cartões de crédito dentre 1.458 jovens adultos residentes no Brasil, EUA ou França. Um modelo de equações estruturais é utilizado para incorporar relações entre as variáveis latentes. O modelo validado pelo estudo representa uma situação em que o bem-estar financeiro é afetado pela forma com que o indivíduo utiliza o cartão de crédito que, por sua vez, é afetado pelo sentimento de comparação social e pela autoconfiança financeira, essa última sendo impactada também pela educação financeira recebida dos pais. Na comparação entre grupos encontramos evidências de que a comparação social tem um efeito mais forte sobre os jovens brasileiros e que homens são mais dependentes da educação dos pais do que as mulheres. No último ensaio a população pobre brasileira é analisada em relação a um suposto efeito preguiça, que seria causado pela diminuição de oferta de trabalho das famílias que recebem o benefício financeiro do governo via o Programa Bolsa Família. Um modelo de sobrevivência foi usado para comparar a duração no emprego entre beneficiários do programa e um grupo controle, utilizando uma base de dados com mais de 3 milhões de indivíduos. A hipótese de um efeito preguiça é rejeitada. O risco de desligamento do emprego para os beneficiários do Bolsa Família é medido como sendo de 7% a 10% menor, o que é capaz de anular, por exemplo, o maior risco de saída do emprego causado pela presença de filhos pequenos na composição familiar. Uma vez que a rotatividade no emprego dificulta o recebimento de aposentadorias por tempo de contribuição, pode-se concluir que o programa de transferência de renda brasileiro terá um impacto positivo sobre o bem-estar financeiro futuro do trabalhador.

Submitted by Aquinoel Neves Borges Neto (anborgesneto@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-10-04T21:34:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TA_AQUINOEL_MPGC.pdf: 1080495 bytes, checksum: 19b1b0ac13439ceb214e21c812818b86 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tamara Oliveira (tamara.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-10-05T15:11:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TA_AQUINOEL_MPGC.pdf: 1080495 bytes, checksum: 19b1b0ac13439ceb214e21c812818b86 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-10-05T17:12:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TA_AQUINOEL_MPGC.pdf: 1080495 bytes, checksum: 19b1b0ac13439ceb214e21c812818b86 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-05T17:12:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TA_AQUINOEL_MPGC.pdf: 1080495 bytes, checksum: 19b1b0ac13439ceb214e21c812818b86 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-29 / Empresas tem se dedicado a compreender as etapas vivenciadas pelos seus consumidores ao longo do processo de aquisição e uso de um determinado produto ou serviço. A difusão dessa abordagem introduziu conceitos como jornada do cliente e experiência do consumidor, bem como novas metodologias, como a do Net Promoter Score (NPS). O Net Promoter Score (NPS) foi adotado por empresas de diferentes seguimentos, sendo um exemplo delas o banco Itaú Unibanco. No Brasil, o segmento bancário foi um dos pioneiros na implementação dessa metodologia nas suas pesquisas de mercado, tanto na visão relacional como na visão transacional. O desafio, portanto, continua sendo agregar esse indicador aos demais indicadores de qualidade (tais como satisfação e recomendação), e relaciona-lo com indicadores do negócio (receita, lucro, retenção). Esse trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto, em termos de NPS, das interações dos clientes com as centrais de atendimento, do banco Itaú Unibanco, do segmento pessoa física do produto cartão de crédito, no resultado da retenção. Para esse fim, foram adotados procedimentos estatísticos de teste ANOVA, teste de diferença de médias, correlações de Pearson, bem como modelos de árvore de decisão e regressão logística para avaliar, primeiramente, a percepção de distintas interações de atendimento ao cliente em termos de NPS, e o impacto do NPS das interações de atendimento anteriores no resultado da retenção de clientes. Os resultados corroboraram a ideia de diferentes percepções entre interações, em termos de NPS, e destacaram a importância das avaliações NPS anteriores das interações de Atendimento e Retenção no resultado da retenção de clientes. Adicionalmente, variáveis controle do atendimento (como tempo entre contatos, volume e resolutividade) e dos clientes (como idade, renda e tempo de relacionamento) foram incluídas nos modelos e, em algumas abordagens, foram relevantes para os resultados auferidos. Estudos futuros sobre o tema poderiam aprofundar a análise para outros bancos, bem como extrapolar o universo de interações de atendimento para a jornadas críticas do cliente bancário, avaliando o impacto das percepções ao longo da jornada de consumo nos resultados financeiros. / Companies have been dedicated to understanding the stages experienced by their consumers throughout the process of acquiring and using a product or service. The diffusion of this approach introduced concepts such as customer journey and consumer experience, as well as new methodologies such as the Net Promoter Score (NPS). Companies from different segments, such as Itaú Unibanco, adopted the Net Promoter Score (NPS). In Brazil, the banking segment was one of the pioneers in implementing this methodology in its market research, both in relational and transactional approaches. The challenge, therefore, remains to aggregate this indicator to other quality indicators (such as satisfaction and recommendation), and relates it to business indicators (revenue, profit, retention). The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact, in terms NPS, of customer interactions with the Itaú Unibanco contact centers, of retail segment, of credit card holders, on retention results. For this purpose, statistical procedures were used such as ANOVA test, Mean Difference test, Pearson correlations, as well as decision tree analysis and logistic regression models to first, evaluate the perception of different customer service interactions in terms of NPS, and access the impact of previous customer service interactions NPS on retention results. The results corroborated the idea of different perceptions between interactions in terms of NPS and emphasized the importance of previous NPS evaluations of the Interactions of Problem Resolution and Retention in the result of customer retention. In addition, control variables (such as time, volume and resolution) and client variables (such as age, income and relationship time) were included in the models and, in some approaches, were relevant to the results obtained. Future studies on the subject could deepen the analysis for other banks, as well as extrapolate the universe of customer service interactions to critical customer bank journeys, evaluating the impact of customer interactions perceptions on financial results.

Apresentamos três estudos sobre os assuntos mencionados no título. O primeiro, econométrico, avalia os impactos da quebra de exclusividade no lado credenciador da indústria de cartões de pagamentos no Brasil que ocorreu em 2010. Por um lado, tentamos a construção de um grupo de controle e, por outro, fazemos a decomposição dos preços em markup e custo marginal. As estimações, que empregam um banco de dados com informações individuais para os maiores lojistas de cada setor, apontam para o sucesso dessa intervenção na promoção da concorrência. No segundo artigo, propomos que cobranças indevidas feitas por instituições financeiras podem ser uma forma de discriminação de preços, já que sua devolução demanda esforço dos consumidores. Nesse caso, tendo em vista que as cobranças indevidas ótimas dependem do perfil do consumidor, construímos um teste baseado numa função de verossimilhança para mostrar como a informação de reclamações poderia ser utilizada para detectar esse tipo de comportamento, mesmo quando a autoridade interessada nesse monitoramento sabe menos sobre os clientes que a instituição financeira. O terceiro artigo, teórico aplicado, estuda o comportamento de plataformas comerciais em mercados de dois lados nos quais os papéis de compradores e vendedores são bem definidos e há heterogeneidade dentro de cada um desses grupos de agentes. Diferentemente do que ocorre no caso em que os interesses são simétricos, no lado vendedor não ocorre autosseleção dos participantes e a plataforma passa a ter um papel de certificação dos vendedores, criando ambientes de qualidade selecionada onde um preço maior pode ser cobrado dos compradores. / This thesis has three papers related to the subject in the title. The first one, an econometric paper, evaluates the impact of a break of exclusivity promoted by Brazilian authorities in the payment card acquiring industry in 2010. We use two frameworks: in one of them, we try to identify categories of merchants to use as control group, while in the other we decompose prices into markup and marginal cost elements. The estimations employ a dataset of individual merchants with information for the largest ones in each category. The results indicate success in promoting some competition. In the second paper, we argue that undue charges made by financial institutions may be a form of price discrimination, since their reversion requires effort from consumers. Given that in such case the optimal undue charges depend on consumers profiles, we build a likelihood function based test to show how information on complaints might be used to detect this sort of behavior, even when the relevant authority knows less about clients than the financial institution. The third one, an applied theoretical paper, analyses the behavior of commercial platforms in two-sided markets where the roles of buyers and sellers are well defined and there is heterogeneity within each of these groups of agents. Differently from what happens in a setting with symmetric interests, in the seller side no self-selection takes place and the platform gains an important quality certification role, creating spaces for trade where seller quality is higher and buyers are willing to pay more.

Financial inclusion is a public policy objective that fosters development through access to financial services for all. Financial inclusion can be defined as access, usage and quality of financial services. Inclusion of individuals and small enterprises has made considerable progress but it has also reached excesses in some situations. Regulatory changes and technological innovation have helped the expansion of financial services. Our contribution to the literature is threefold. First, we expand the large body of research that focuses on financial inclusion based on access to credit, through our analysis of payments. We provide an unique analysis of the quality dimension of payments, which we define as a catalyst between the access and usage dimensions. Second, we provide a detailed analysis of the Brazilian payment market, which transacts close to $400bn per year, in the scarce literature on developing countries. Third, we isolate the determinants of electronic payments through statistical methods, including a principal component analysis and auto regressive models (SARIMA, SARIMAX), which have not yet been used by researchers. We find that four macro characteristicshave a strong explanatory power: bank credit card lending, active population, retail sales and cash-in-circulation. Suprisingly, we find that cash-in-circulation presents a positive relationship with electronic payments, suggesting a possible distrust of citizens towards the banking system, high levels of informality, and shedding a new light on the precautionary principle described by Keynes. Our analysis is based on monthly deflated card payment data for Brazil from January 2007 to March 2017. / A Inclusão financeira é um objetivo de política pública que procura desenvolvimento através do acesso de todos aos serviços financeiros. Esse conceito pode ser definido com as suas três dimensões de acesso, uso e qualidade dos serviços. A inclusão de indivíduos e empresas conheceu uma melhora significativa, e em algum casos, apresentou excessos. Adaptações regulatórias e inovação tecnológica serviram de pano de fundo para a inclusão. Apresentamos as três contribuições da nossa pesquisa. Primeiro, existe ampla literatura sobre inclusão financeira com foco em crédito, e apresentamos um estudo original sobre pagamentos e sua dimensão de qualidade, definida como o catalisador entre acesso e uso. Segundo: nossa pesquisa apresenta uma análise única do setor de pagamentos no Brasil, um setor com faturamento de mais de R$1.2 trilhões de reais anuais, no âmbito da escassa literatura sobre economias em desenvolvimento. A terceira contribuição apresenta os determinantes dos meios de pagamentos eletrônicos, usando modelos estatísticos originais, como componentes principais e modelos auto regressivos (SARIMA, SARIMAX), que não tinham sido usados na literatura de inclusão financeira. Identificamos quatro características com significância para explicar meios eletrônicos: crédito bancário, população ativa, vendas do varejo e dinheiro em posse das famílias. De maneira surpreendente, dinheiro em posse das famílias apresentou correlação positiva com meios eletrônicos, sinalizando uma desconfiança dos consumidores com o setor bancário ou um maior grau de informalidade da economia brasileira, e trazendo uma interpretação original ao princípio de precaução descrito por Keynes. Nossa pesquisa se baseou em dados agregados e deflacionados de pagamentos para o Brasil entre Janeiro de 2007 e Março de 2017.