[pt] Este trabalho desenvolve e estabelece a existência de equilíbrio para um modelo sequencial com dois estágios, mercados financeiros incompletos, risco de crédito e colateral endógeno. No primeiro estágio, ao escolherem o colateral, de acordo com uma regra exogenamente determinada, os agentes emitem ativos personalizados que serão transacionados no segundo estágio, em uma economia Walrasiana com dois períodos. A nossa estrutura permite o surgimento de modelos nos quais os próprios agentes escolhem suas garantias, de forma similar aos modelos já existentes de colateral endógeno. Tais modelos exibem o que podemos chamar de A Maldição do Vencedor, situação na qual o agente escolhe, racionalmente, oferecer colateral nulo, inviabilizando, em equilíbrio, a transação de ativos. Com isso, a economia é jogada para um equilíbrio Pareto inferior no qual não existem mercados financeiros. Ao introduzir uma sequencialidade nas escolhas, conseguimos resolver esse problema, pois os agentes antecipam o efeito da escolha de colateral sobre os payoffs de equilíbrio, escolhendo, racionalmente, colaterais positivos. Assim, conseguimos não somente solucionar uma limitação dos modelos existentes, como ainda, permitir o surgimento de inúmeros sub-modelos através das diversas possibilidades para a regra de escolha na determinação do colateral. / [en] This paper develops and establishes the existence of equilibrium for a sequential model with two stages, incomplete financial markets, credit risk and endogenous collateral. In the first stage, by choosing the collateral, according to a predetermined and exogenously given rule, the agents issue personalized securities that will be traded in the second stage in aWalrasian economy with two periods. Our structure allows for models in which the agents choose their own collateral, similar to the existing endogenous collateral models. Those models exhibit what we might call, The Winner s Curse, a situation in which the agent choose, rationally, to offer no collateral, making asset trading impossible, in equilibrium. The economy is then thrown in a Paretoinferior equilibria in which there are no financial markets. By introducing the agent s choice in a sequential fashion, we avoid such a problem, because the agents anticipate the effects of their collateral choice over the equilibrium payoffs, therefore choosing rationally, positive collateral. That way, we are able, not only to solve a shortcoming of the existing models, but also to allow for a variety of sub-models through the several possible choices for the collateral determining rule.

Les dernières décennies ont été témoin d’un accroissement considérable du poids et de l’influence de la finance au sein des sociétés contemporaines, un phénomène que les sciences sociales ont commencé à cerner grâce à la notion de financiarisation. La financiarisation demeure un phénomène peu étudié en droit. Notre thèse contribue à son étude en adoptant une approche socio-juridique : elle part de l’hypothèse qu’une telle transformation des rapports sociaux et économiques a été l’occasion de controverses sur la scène juridique, à partir desquelles on peut mieux comprendre ce que représente la financiarisation en droit. Nous avons choisi d’aborder ces controverses à partir d’une question spécifique, celle de l’innovation financière, en prenant comme cas d’étude un type particulier d’instruments financiers ayant bouleversé le paysage de la finance depuis leur apparition dans les années 1980 : les swaps, ou les instruments dérivés de gré à gré. À partir d’une analyse des documents contractuels produits par l’industrie, de la littérature professionnelle de droit financier et du contentieux relatif aux swaps, notre étude retrace l’histoire juridique de ces instruments financiers. Il ressort de notre étude qu’en se livrant à un travail de mise en forme juridique de l’innovation financière, les juristes ont non seulement favorisé le succès des nouveaux marchés d’instruments financiers, mais qu’ils ont en outre amorcé une profonde transformation de la culture juridique du monde des affaires. La financiarisation coïncide ainsi, en droit, avec un renouvellement des concepts, des valeurs, des pratiques, des instruments et des modes d’argumentation que déploient les juristes des milieux financiers. Nous soutenons que, sous l’influence de ces derniers, c’est en fin de compte le droit lui-même qui s’est financiarisé, d’une façon qui a sensiblement accru l’autonomie juridique de l’industrie financière. / The last few decades have witnessed a considerable increase in the weight and influence of finance in contemporary societies, a phenomenon that social scientists have begun to study with the concept of financialization. Financialization remains rarely studied in law. This dissertation contributes to its study by adopting a socio-legal approach: it assumes that such a transformation of social and economic relations must have given rise to controversies in the legal arena, from which one could better understand what financialization means in law. I have chosen to approach these controversies through a specific question, that of financial innovation. I took as a case study a particular type of financial instruments, which have transformed the financial landscape since their invention in the 1980s: swaps, or over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. Based on the analysis of contractual documents crafted by the industry, of the professional literature in financial law, and of the case law arising from swap disputes, this study recounts the legal history of these financial instruments. It shows that legal practitioners, through the legal shaping of financial innovation, have not only fostered the success of the new markets for financial instruments, but have also initiated a profound transformation of business’s legal culture. Financialization thus coincides, in law, with a renewal of concepts, values, practices, instruments and modes of argument deployed by financial lawyers. I argue that, under the influence of the latter, it is ultimately the law itself that was financialized, in a way that significantly increased the legal autonomy of the financial industry.

The financial crisis that struck financial markets in 2008 was devastating for the global economy. The impact continues to be felt in the market - most recently in sovereign defaults. 1 There are many questions as to the origin of the crisis and how the same events may be prevented in the future. This dissertation explores two financial instruments: securitisation and credit default swaps (CDSs) and attempts to establish the role they played in the financial crisis. To fully understand the events that unfolded before and during the crisis, a sound theoretical understanding of these instruments is required. This understanding is important to discern the future of stable financial markets and to gain insight into some of the potential risks faced by financial markets. The South African perspective regarding securitisation, CDSs and the global financial crisis is an important field of study. The impact of the crisis on South Africa will be explored in this dissertation, as well as, the effect of the crisis on South Africa's securitisation market (which has proved healthy and robust over the first part of the new millennium despite the global slowdown of these instruments) and the CDS market. A key goal of this work is to establish whether or not CDSs have been used in South Africa to hedge the credit risk component of bonds linked to asset–backed securities (ABSs). This will provide an indication of the maturity of the South African credit risk transfer (CRT) market and how South Africa compares to more developed financial markets regarding complexity, regulation, sophistication and market sentiment. Through the exploration and understanding of these concepts, the efficacy of emerging economies to adapt to globalisation, and how welcome financial innovation has proved to be in emerging markets will be addressed. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

The financial crisis that struck financial markets in 2008 was devastating for the global economy. The impact continues to be felt in the market - most recently in sovereign defaults. 1 There are many questions as to the origin of the crisis and how the same events may be prevented in the future. This dissertation explores two financial instruments: securitisation and credit default swaps (CDSs) and attempts to establish the role they played in the financial crisis. To fully understand the events that unfolded before and during the crisis, a sound theoretical understanding of these instruments is required. This understanding is important to discern the future of stable financial markets and to gain insight into some of the potential risks faced by financial markets. The South African perspective regarding securitisation, CDSs and the global financial crisis is an important field of study. The impact of the crisis on South Africa will be explored in this dissertation, as well as, the effect of the crisis on South Africa's securitisation market (which has proved healthy and robust over the first part of the new millennium despite the global slowdown of these instruments) and the CDS market. A key goal of this work is to establish whether or not CDSs have been used in South Africa to hedge the credit risk component of bonds linked to asset–backed securities (ABSs). This will provide an indication of the maturity of the South African credit risk transfer (CRT) market and how South Africa compares to more developed financial markets regarding complexity, regulation, sophistication and market sentiment. Through the exploration and understanding of these concepts, the efficacy of emerging economies to adapt to globalisation, and how welcome financial innovation has proved to be in emerging markets will be addressed. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

Studi condotti sulla crisi finanziaria del 2007-09 e la recessione economica hanno evidenziato l’inadeguatezza delle teorie predominanti e la loro inefficacia nel proporre adeguate soluzioni di policy. La presenza di moneta bancaria nell’economia e di un sistema finanziario caratterizzato da innovazione finanziaria e speculazione modificano profondamente la natura stessa del processo di credit creation. Una nuova prospettiva sulla relazione tra finanza e crescita economica necessita essere sviluppata cercando di colmare le lacune esistenti tra New Growth Theory e Evolutionary Theory, come J.A. Schumpeter (1934) e altri studiosi hanno evidenziato. I fattori strutturali sono alla base della persistente instabilita` finanziaria nell’economia. Questo studio tenta di spiegare l’ipotesi che sta alla base dell’intera analisi circa il passaggio avutosi nell'impianto strutturale dell'economia da un virtuous cycle ad un bad cycle, e dimostrare l’esistenza di cio` che definiamo wealth trap, la quale e` ipotizzata essere conseguenza di un sistema finanziario tecnologicamente avanzato, ma non socialmente avanzato. Un modello non lineare ad Agenti (AMB) chiamato BFSE (Based-line Financial System Economy) mostra , tramite la sperimentazione sul modello ICEACE(Erlingsson et al., 2011), evidenze sulla centralita` del sistema finanziario e dell’esistenza del bad cycle. Una discussione sulle macroprudential policies e le politiche strutturali e` introdotta. / Studies of the 2007-09 credit crisis and the resulting recession have revealed the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical frameworks and their failure to propose adequate policy solutions. The presence in the economy of bank money and a financial system characterized by financial innovation and speculation changes the nature of credit creation. As J.A. Schumpeter (1934) and others scholars have recognized, a new perspective on the financial-growth relationship needs to be developed by filling the gaps in New Growth Theory and Evolutionary Theory - two Sons of Schumpeter - and in some way combining them. Structural factors are at the bottom of the persistence of the financial instability in the economy. The goal of this research is to explain the main hypothesis of the historical passage of the economy from a virtuous to a bad cycle and to show the existence of the wealth trap, which is a consequence of a high-technologically advanced financial system within the economic system. A non-linear ABM (Agent Based Model) called BFSE provides, through experimentation using ICEACE model (Erlingsson et al., 2011), interesting evidences of the centrality of the financial system and the bad cycle. Macroprudential and structural policies are introduced.

新藥研發為一高風險、高報酬的產業，股票或債券投資人通常不願承擔那麼高的風險。本研究利用類似Mortgage Backed Securities的概念，發行RBO（Research Backed Obligation），募集50億美金的Megafunds，投資在200個藥物上。RBO包含了Senior bond、Junior bond，以及Equity三個tranche。Senior與Junior的利率分別為5%與8%，在4年與6年後到期，Equity不發利息或股利，而是於投資期間結束後，領回基金總額扣除Bond後的價值。 本研究使用2003-2011年共5820個新藥臨床實驗結果，依照藥物型式、對應疾病分為59類，將各種藥物於各階段臨床實驗的成功機率帶入模型。每種藥物模擬5000次。最後得到投資各種藥物時，Senior bond與Junior bond的違約機率與違約時的期望損失，以及Equity報酬率的期望值與標準差。 分析模擬的結果，可得到除了其中三種藥物之外，Senior與Junior bond的違約機率皆分別在5 bp與2.5 %以下。至於Equity的部分，除了其中四種藥物的報酬率較低外，多數藥物年化報酬率的期望值在8-16%間、標準差在14-15.5%間。各藥物的風險並不會差太多，然而各種藥物報酬率的期望值彼此間有所差距。故以RBO投資新藥產業時，仍需注意投資的藥物種類。 / Biomedical innovation has become riskier and more difficult to finance with traditional sources such as private and public equity. Here we propose a financial structure called RBO (Research Backed Obligations) which is similar to Mortgage Backed Securities. In RBO structure, a $5 billion ‘Megafunds’ is financed by issuing Senior bonds, Junior bonds, and Equity. Senior bond and Junior bond tranches yield 5% and 8% annually, due within 4 and 6 years, respectively. Equity tranche does not pay any interest and obtain the residual asset after all debt obligations have been satisfied. ‘Megafunds’ will be invested on the 200 biomedical programs at various development stage to reduce the portfolio’s risk. We use the historical clinical trail data of 5820 new drug programs from 2003 to 2011. These drugs are classified into 59 groups by molecular type and disease area. Success rates of each development stage are imported into our simulation model, 5000 simulations for each drug group. The simulation result included the default rate of the Senior bonds and Junior bonds, loss of the bonds when the bonds default, and the expected value and standard deviation of the Equity return. We show that except for 3 drug groups, the default rate of Senior bond and Junior bond are less than 5 bp and 2.5% respectively for all the drugs. The expected return of Equity are between 8-16% of almost all the drug, although 4 drug groups show poorer performance. The standard deviations are between 14-15.5% for all drug groups. Consequently, almost all the drug groups have similar risks, but the expected return of the Equity tranche of these drug groups are quite different.

This thesis aims to analyze the origins of the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis in the US and describe the most significant channels that caused its transmission to the EU countries. Second part of this paper compares both the progress and consequences the financial and economic crisis had for the United Kingdom and Germany with respect to institutional differences of their economic models. Firstly, the second part of this paper focuses on the main institutional patterns including market for corporate control, banking sector, market as a means of financial allocation, labour market flexibility and the economic role of the state. Secondly, using an elaborate micro and macroeconomic data analysis I compare both the progress and the impacts the crisis had on the UK and German economy. Hereby I show that some of the differences in the progress and economic consequences the crisis had for the UK and Germany (price bubble on the real estate market, firms' financial distress, lower domestic and foreign demand and increased unemployment rate) reflected the institutional particularities of their economic models.

Financial inclusion is a public policy objective that fosters development through access to financial services for all. Financial inclusion can be defined as access, usage and quality of financial services. Inclusion of individuals and small enterprises has made considerable progress but it has also reached excesses in some situations. Regulatory changes and technological innovation have helped the expansion of financial services. Our contribution to the literature is threefold. First, we expand the large body of research that focuses on financial inclusion based on access to credit, through our analysis of payments. We provide an unique analysis of the quality dimension of payments, which we define as a catalyst between the access and usage dimensions. Second, we provide a detailed analysis of the Brazilian payment market, which transacts close to $400bn per year, in the scarce literature on developing countries. Third, we isolate the determinants of electronic payments through statistical methods, including a principal component analysis and auto regressive models (SARIMA, SARIMAX), which have not yet been used by researchers. We find that four macro characteristicshave a strong explanatory power: bank credit card lending, active population, retail sales and cash-in-circulation. Suprisingly, we find that cash-in-circulation presents a positive relationship with electronic payments, suggesting a possible distrust of citizens towards the banking system, high levels of informality, and shedding a new light on the precautionary principle described by Keynes. Our analysis is based on monthly deflated card payment data for Brazil from January 2007 to March 2017. / A Inclusão financeira é um objetivo de política pública que procura desenvolvimento através do acesso de todos aos serviços financeiros. Esse conceito pode ser definido com as suas três dimensões de acesso, uso e qualidade dos serviços. A inclusão de indivíduos e empresas conheceu uma melhora significativa, e em algum casos, apresentou excessos. Adaptações regulatórias e inovação tecnológica serviram de pano de fundo para a inclusão. Apresentamos as três contribuições da nossa pesquisa. Primeiro, existe ampla literatura sobre inclusão financeira com foco em crédito, e apresentamos um estudo original sobre pagamentos e sua dimensão de qualidade, definida como o catalisador entre acesso e uso. Segundo: nossa pesquisa apresenta uma análise única do setor de pagamentos no Brasil, um setor com faturamento de mais de R$1.2 trilhões de reais anuais, no âmbito da escassa literatura sobre economias em desenvolvimento. A terceira contribuição apresenta os determinantes dos meios de pagamentos eletrônicos, usando modelos estatísticos originais, como componentes principais e modelos auto regressivos (SARIMA, SARIMAX), que não tinham sido usados na literatura de inclusão financeira. Identificamos quatro características com significância para explicar meios eletrônicos: crédito bancário, população ativa, vendas do varejo e dinheiro em posse das famílias. De maneira surpreendente, dinheiro em posse das famílias apresentou correlação positiva com meios eletrônicos, sinalizando uma desconfiança dos consumidores com o setor bancário ou um maior grau de informalidade da economia brasileira, e trazendo uma interpretação original ao princípio de precaução descrito por Keynes. Nossa pesquisa se baseou em dados agregados e deflacionados de pagamentos para o Brasil entre Janeiro de 2007 e Março de 2017.

本論文共分七章二十七節。主要內容如下： 第一章為緒論。說明撰寫本論文之動機和目的、研究方法、範圍暨限制以及論文架構。 第二章為金融創新之本質與金融商品開放之理由。介紹金融創新的定義、種類、源起及發展，並探討外匯期貨暨選擇權在金融創新中之歸類、定位，以及金融商品應開放之理由。 第三章為我國現行的外匯管理制度及避險工具。首先說明我國目前外匯管理制度的特色，其次就外匯風險之類型加以分類，並介紹我國現有之主要匯率避險工具－遠期外匯暨其它匯率避險工具，最後則針對我國遠期外匯市場交易清淡之原因進行探討。 第四章為外匯期貨契約。除了介紹外匯期貨契約的起源、經濟功能及法律概念與規範意義外，並對保證金之制度及法律性質加以說明。另外，則對美、日、新加坡之外匯期貨交易制度進行比較，並特別介紹互相結轉沖銷系統(MOS)及全球交易系統 (Globex)。最後，則針對外匯期貨交易中之避險及投機操作，逐一舉例說明分析。 第五章為外匯選擇權契約。本章首先介紹外匯選擇權之起源、定義及種類；接著說明其法律性質、規範意義與實務操作，並綜合比較遠期外匯、外匯期貨暨選擇權；最後則對我國國外期貨交易法加以評釋。 第六章為金融規範分析-Laffer Curve 於政府修法時之應用。本章為法律之經濟分析，筆者嘗試將成本效益分析、博弈理論(Game Theory)及諮商(Negotiation)策略應用到政府之立法上面。探討法令規範之最適規模及其與時間函數之關係，並檢討「立法從嚴、執法從寬」暨「惡法亦法」之不當。 第七章為結論與建議。本章以摘要方式將前述章節內容做一總結，並對正草擬中之國內期貨交易法提出筆者淺見，俾供參考。 / GATT is the most important organization which governedrld trade since it was founded in 1948. since China15th trader in the world,so it certainly cannotutside of GATT.China's special case has given rise to certain legalonomic problems,which have made its participation intill remain unsolved.legal issues come from China's request for "resumptioninal membership".This request will cause difficult whens to some rights and obligations under GATT such asion ticket,grandfather clause and non-application clause.ms GATT will "acknowledge" China's orginal seat,butneeds to negotiate is terms and obligations as a newant.economic problems are caused by China's non-marketic system and its claim for developing country status.hough China has carried out many reforms on economicure,major GATT contracting parties still think China'sy and trade regime are not liberlized enough to fit GATT.ina's great potential export power makes other countriesant to give China special treatment which other developingies enjoy.to China's reform of its trade system,China only has toake tariff concession without undertaking other importments which some East European countries have made. Chinareally like to avoid discriminatory quantity restriction special safeguard clauses,but other contracting partiest likely to permit this.use of changes in international circumstances, theation of China's participation has made no progress during991.After 1992,the negotiation begin to accelerate,butcan' t reach a certain conclusion.

近年來，隨著企業籌資需求上升、金融機構避險需求增加、以及一般民眾投資理財意識抬頭，各式金融創新產品因應而生。這些金融創新產品可以滿足不同客戶之需求，提升企業競爭力，或是協助一般民眾達到投資理財之目標…等目的，而以上都是傳統金融商品所無法提供的功能，因此金融創新之重要性不言而喻。然而，在目前相關文獻中，鮮少研究探討金融創新與其創新擴散相關議題。 基於上述動機，本研究旨在利用以往用於科技技術創新之「創新擴散」與「行銷鴻溝」模型，探討「金融創新」當中最具代表性之創新產品「連動式債券」，是否也擁有類似科技技術創新之創新擴散與行銷鴻溝現象。 本研究以台灣地區2002 年以後主管機關核准連動式債券銷售業務開始，到2008 年雷曼兄弟倒閉事件爆發為止，做為研究期間範圍。首先，根據創新擴散與行銷鴻溝理論建構出研究架構，提出探索性假設。接著，透過先導個案之方式針對銀行與壽險業者進行訪談，得出對應探索性假設的初步答案，形成研究假設。最後，再將研究假設設計成問卷，針對所有連動式債券第一線銷售人員進行發放與回收，以進行假設檢定量化分析。 經由本研究結果發現：(一) 金融創新產品存在與科技技術創新相同之創新擴散模式； (二) 金融創新產品擴散過程中，先後採用之不同族群存在不同特性，包括風險承受度、投資預備金額、投資連動債之專業知識程度皆隨時間遞減；(三)金融創新產品擴散過程中，也存在科技技術創新所面臨難以跨越的鴻溝，其中產品單位金額大小是最關鍵之成因。然而，由於金融創新技術相較於科技創新技術較不需要時間與金錢成本去進步改良，因此金融業者僅須透過調整產品單位金額大小，便可輕易跨越鴻溝。也由於金融創新產品此種技術特性，業者其實是有能力同時向不同族群區隔進行銷售，但是礙於主流市場消費者一定要在看到可參考之成功經驗後才敢購買，因此業者仍然會先從早期市場開始銷售，形成與科技技術創新擴散模型相同之模式；(四) 有別於科技技術創新擴散模式當中，早期市場消費者之接受行為擁有降低創新不確定之象徵意義，在金融創新產品擴散過程當中，早期市場消費者之採用行為，並不能代表產品風險已經縮小至一定程度，因為金融市場之風險並不會隨技術進步而消失。然而，主流市場消費者卻存有科技技術創新擴散模型之習性，誤以為早期市場消費者之接受行為代表著金融創新產品之風險已縮小而積極跟進購買，因而承擔了超過原本所能容忍之風險程度，導致最後往往面臨虧損。 / In recent years, many kinds of financial innovation products have been invented in response to the rising demands of corporate financing, financial institutions’ hedging, and personal financial management of general public. These financial innovation products can meet different needs of different customers, bring competitiveness to enterprises, or even help the general public to manage their money more efficiently, while these are which the traditional financial products cannot achieve. As a result, the importance of financial innovation goes without saying. However, in the existing literatures, there are only a few studies concentrated on this issue. This study took 2002 to 2008 as the research period, which was from the Taiwan government first approved the business of selling structured notes to the outbreak of bankruptcy of Lehman Brother. This study first constructed the research framework and exploratory hypotheses based on the innovation diffusion theory, then explored the corresponding answers to the initial exploratory hypotheses through interviewing workers in banks and insurance companies and formed the research hypotheses, and finally conducted a questionnaire survey among those first-line sales of structured notes to test the research hypotheses statistically. This study found that: (a) financial innovation had the same pattern with the technological innovation diffusion process, but it was because general customers needed to see a successful example to pursue themselves to accept that financial innovation; (b) different groups in the innovation diffusion process had different features, including the level of risk tolerance, the amount of money used to invest, and the knowledge of investing structured notes, and the level of these features will gradually decrease as the time point of their acceptance; (c) there also existed a chasm in the financial innovation diffusion process as the technological innovation diffusion, and the key to cross the chasm was the price of each product; (d) the acceptance of earlier customers in the process of financial innovation diffusion did not mean that the risk of the products had reduced, which was quite different from the technological innovation diffusion process, and later customers usually perceive lower risk than it actually was and borne more risk than they actually can afford without knowing the above difference.