Cette thèse propose trois essais économétriques ayant trait au capital humain et au bien-être de l'enfant. Chacun des essais présente une méthodologie distincte afin de répondre à l'objectif concerné. Dans le premier chapitre, nous évaluons les effets à long terme d'une politique de services de garde universels au Canada sur le bien-être de l'enfant (santé, comportement, développement moteur et social). Nous montrons que la réforme a un effet négatif sur le bien-être des enfants d'âge préscolaire, mais ces effets tendent à disparaître lorsque l'enfant devient plus âgé. Nous trouvons que cette tendance persiste même dix ans après la mise en place de la réforme. Le second chapitre s'intéresse à l'effet de l'intensité des services de garde sur le développement cognitif des enfants d'âge préscolaire. Nous utilisons la méthode d'appariement à traitements multiples pour répondre à cet objectif. Nous montrons que les effets des services de garde sont grandement hétérogènes. Leurs effets varient selon le statut socioéconomique des familles, la scolarité ou non de l'enfant, le niveau d'intensité des services de garde ainsi que le mode de garde utilisé. Le troisième chapitre porte sur la modélisation des trajectoires des performances mathématiques des enfants canadiens de 7 à 15 ans ainsi que sur l'identification des facteurs de risque durant la petite enfance susceptibles d'influencer l'appartenance à ces trajectoires. La méthode utilisée est celle du Group-Based Trajectory Modeling de Nagin (2005). / This thesis contains three econometric essays on child human capital and well-being. Each essay has a distinct methodology to meet the purpose. In the first chapter, we evaluate the long-term effects of a reform of universal child care in Canada on children's health, motor and social development, and behaviour. We show that the policy had negative effects on preschool children's well-being, but these effects tend to disappear as the child gets older. We find that this pattern persist even ten years after the implementation of the reform. The second chapter focuses on the effect of the intensity of child care on preschool children's cognitive development using propensity score matching with multivalued treatments. We show that the effects of child care are significantly heterogeneous and vary by family socioeconomic status, schooling or not of the child, the intensity of child care and the type of child care arrangement. The third chapter models mathematics trajectories of Canadian children aged 7 to 15 years and identifies risk factors during early childhood on the membership of these trajectories using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (Nagin, 2005).

Orientador: Valeriano Mendes Ferreira Costa / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T09:52:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Avila_MilenePeixoto_D.pdf: 1865783 bytes, checksum: e04b7528a8ef8d88268f41769cee6793 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: O programa de transferência de renda condicionada Bolsa Família tem se destacado, nos últimos anos, como a principal política social do Brasil, destinada aos "mais pobres" do país. Em poucos anos de implementação, o Bolsa Família é conhecido por grande parcela da população, desperta muito interesse e é objeto de vários estudos, em sua grande maioria, amostrais e estatísticos. Esse trabalho tem como objetivo discutir essa política pública em suas diferentes etapas, considerando tanto os aspectos institucionais (desenho, implementação e modelo de gestão), como os subjetivos. O foco da análise é apreender a interação entre a população e a política. Para tanto, realizei, tendo como metodologia a etnografia, um estudo comparativo com técnicos/as e beneficiárias das cidades de São Paulo (SP) e São Carlos (SP), observando as diferenças e semelhanças que a política assume depois que 'sai do papel'. Privilegia-se o olhar do beneficiário, isto é, 'daquele que recebe', com o intuito de realizar um levantamento das percepções, avaliações e sentimentos sobre a política. Busquei, com isso, analisar os efeitos gerais do Programa, com destaque para os impactos políticos dessa nova política de combate à pobreza. Um dos resultados observados é que, embora seja uma política federal, por ser implementado pelos municípios, o Bolsa Família 'funcionando' assume uma dinâmica diferente, de acordo com a estrutura política e administrativa local. Além disso, apesar de conter em seu desenho mecanismos que estimulem a participação política do beneficiário, na prática, entre as pessoas entrevistadas, ser beneficiário do Programa não se reverteu em uma maior participação e consciência política: a maioria participa das reuniões "porque tem que ir". Outro ponto observado é a falta de conhecimento e informação sobre o Programa, tanto entre os/as técnicos/as responsáveis pela política, como entre a população beneficiária. A pesquisa realizada com as pessoas que estão 'dentro' do Bolsa Família mostrou que é mais do interessante, ao se analisar uma política pública, considerar as falas daqueles que estão lidando diariamente com a política, uma vez que, ao se considerar os aspectos simbólicos e subjetivos, novos e significativos elementos surgem, demonstrando efeitos que a avaliação estatística não consegue apreender / Abstract: The program of conditional cash transfer "Bolsa Família" has emerged in recent years as the main social policy in Brazil, for the "poorest" of the country. In a few years of implementation, the "Bolsa Família" is known for a large portion of the population, it has obtained much interest and it has been the subject of several studies, in the vast majority of sampling and statistical. This present study aims to discuss the public policy in its different stages, considering both the institutional (design, implementation and management model) and the subjective aspects. The focus is to understand the interaction between population and policies In order to manage to do this, I carried out, with the ethnography methodology, a comparative study with technicians and beneficiaries from the cities of São Paulo (SP) and São Carlos (SP), noting the differences and similarities that policies takes over after 'out of paper'. Attention is given to the look of the beneficiary, I mean, 'the one who receives "in order to conduct a survey of perceptions, evaluations and feelings about policy. I sought, therefore, to analyze the effects of the Program, with emphasis on the political impact of new policies in fighting poverty. One of the observed results is that, although it's a federal policy, being implemented by municipalities, the Bolsa Família, once 'working' takes a different dynamic, according to local administrative and political structure. Furthermore, although it contains in its design mechanisms to encourage the political participation of the beneficiary, in practice, among those surveyed, the fact of being a beneficiary of the program is not reversed in a greater participation and political awareness: most part of them, go to the meetings "because they have to go". Another point observed is the lack of knowledge and information about the program, both among the technicians as policy makers, and among the beneficiary population. The survey of people who are 'inside' the Bolsa Família shows that it is more interesting when analyzing public policy, to consider the statements of those who are dealing daily with the policy, since, if we consider the symbolic aspects and subjective, new and significant elements emerge, by demonstrating effects that statistical evaluation cannot grasp / Doutorado / Ciencias Sociais / Doutora em Ciências Sociais

Orientadora: Ângela Maria Grossi de Carvalho / Resumo: Considerando a Ciência da Informação um campo interdisciplinar buscamos enlaçar seus pressupostos teóricos aos do campo das políticas públicas em especial no contexto do Plano Nacional do Livro e da Leitura (PNLL). Com o objetivo de destacar as habilidades específicas dos profissionais da informação sobre o ciclo de vida e o desenvolvimento de políticas públicas visando alavancar as transformações trazidas pelas tecnologias da informação e comunicação, visamos elencar elementos reguladores da sociedade contemporânea, no âmbito da sociedade da informação e, principalmente, neste universo governamental. O estudo apresenta por meio de uma metodologia quali - quanti exploratória com características de pesquisa aplicada baseada em análise qualitativa, conseguimos explorar a necessidade do profissional da informação focar sua formação na transdisciplinariedade, permitindo que suas habilidades sejam potencializadas para atender uma determinada demanda social. Nos interessamos pelas investigações do campo teórico e metodológico da Ciência da Informação que contribui para a validação das teorias propostas, a compreensão dos sujeitos sociais no processo de atuação do profissional da informação no âmbito das políticas públicas, através da conexão do percurso histórico da ciência da informação e seus profissionais e o cenário político nacional, reforçando a importância do envolvimento do profissionais da ciência da informação na elaboração destas políticas. A posição social do profission... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Considering the information science an interdisciplinary field seek to ensnare the assumptions to the field of public policies especially in the context of the National Book and Reading Plan (PNLL). In order to highlight the specific skills of information professionals on the life cycle and the development of public policies to leverage the changes brought about by information and communication technologies, we aim to list regulatory elements of contemporary society in the framework of the information society and especially this government universe. The study presents through an exploratory and bibliographical qualitative methodology fundamental research characteristics and applied based on qualitative analysis, we explore the need for the information professional focus their training on transdiciplinariedade, allowing your skills are leveraged to meet a certain social demand. We care for the investigations of the theoretical and methodological field of Information Science that contribute to the validation of the proposed theories, understanding of social subjects in the information professional practice process within public policies through the historic route connecting science information and its professionals and the national political scene, reinforcing the importance of the involvement of professionals in information science preparation of these policies .A social position of the information professional is explicit in the critical analysis of the Brazilian government i... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Cette thèse regroupe trois travaux d'économétrie liés par l'application du machine learning et de la statistique en grande dimension à l'évaluation de politiques publiques. La première partie propose une alternative paramétrique au contrôle synthétique (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010) sous la forme d'un estimateur reposant sur une première étape de type Lasso, dont on montre qu'il est doublement robuste, asymptotiquement Normal et ``immunisé'' contre les erreurs de première étape. La seconde partie étudie une version pénalisée du contrôle synthétique en présence de données de nature micro-économique. La pénalisation permet d'obtenir une unité synthétique qui réalise un arbitrage entre reproduire fidèlement l'unité traitée durant la période pré-traitement et n'utiliser que des unités non-traitées suffisamment semblables à l'unité traitée. Nous étudions les propriétés de cet estimateur, proposons deux procédures de type ``validation croisée'' afin de choisir la pénalisation et discutons des procédures d'inférence par permutation. La dernière partie porte sur l'application du Generic Machine Learning (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) afin d'étudier l'hétérogénéité des effets d'une expérience aléatoire visant à comparer la fourniture publique et privée d'aide à la recherche d'emploi. D'un point de vue méthodologique, ce projet discute l'extension du Generic Machine Learning à des expériences avec compliance imparfaite. / This dissertation is comprised of three essays that apply machine learning and high-dimensional statistics to causal inference. The first essay proposes a parametric alternative to the synthetic control method (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010) that relies on a Lasso-type first-step. We show that the resulting estimator is doubly robust, asymptotically Gaussian and ``immunized'' against first-step selection mistakes. The second essay studies a penalized version of the synthetic control method especially useful in the presence of micro-economic data. The penalization parameter trades off pairwise matching discrepancies with respect to the characteristics of each unit in the synthetic control against matching discrepancies with respect to the characteristics of the synthetic control unit as a whole. We study the properties of the resulting estimator, propose data-driven choices of the penalization parameter and discuss randomization-based inference procedures. The last essay applies the Generic Machine Learning framework (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) to study heterogeneity of the treatment in a randomized experiment designed to compare public and private provision of job counselling. From a methodological perspective, we discuss the extension of the Generic Machine Learning framework to experiments with imperfect compliance.

This thesis is a collection of three essays in causal evaluation. The first chapter investigates the effects of formal ties between firms and banks on the amount of credit received. I focus on the micro-effects of ties (bank-firm level) and how they reverberate at the macro level. Results are consistent with the literature considering links as a source of favoritism. However, efficient firms are more likely to be connected to banks, thus benefiting more often than less efficient firms from connections. The comparison of Portugal’s GDP in 2017 with that produced under a hypothetical scenario where every tie was severed shows that severing links results in virtually no changes in GDP. I interpret the result as evidence that the different likelihood of being connected experienced by efficient and not efficient firms counterbalances the misallocating potential of connections.The second chapter introduces a novel Stata implementation of Egger and von Ehrlich’s (2013) econometric framework for the estimation of treatment effect when the treatment is continuous and multidimensional. After the illustration of the package, I present a simple simulation to show the capability of the method to overcome bias.The third chapter consists of an evaluation of European regional policy. It analyzes how different mixes of investments in infrastructure and productive investments affect regions’ growth rate. The main results are that allocations in infrastructure foster growth only when coupled with expenditures in productive investments. Moreover, the highest growth is obtained when investments have high intensity in both dimensions. By generating two hypothetical scenarios, I investigate how the allocation of funds can be improved. The results show that regions could allocate more efficiently. However, the actual transfer intensity is not enough to choose the mix that would globally maximize growth. The findings are consistent with Becker et al. (2012) since enforcing common support restricts the analysis to regions with low transfer intensity.

Oil palm has flourished as an economically vital crop in Indonesia given its use in both food and non-food products (including biodiesel) for domestic and export markets. However, the expansion of oil palm plantations in Indonesia is controversial. While the crop generates fiscal earnings for the country, and regular income streams for farmers and companies, oil palm plantation expansion is claimed to cause deforestation, environmental degradation and biodiversity losses. At the same time, there is a national target to reduce GHG emissions from land use change and the production of palm oil. Climate change mitigation goals also include ambitious targets to blend biodiesel with fossil diesel in various economic sectors. This thesis looks at the palm oil agro-industry, from oil palm plantation to crude palm oil (CPO) production, and CPO based biodiesel production. It proposes a policy evaluation to verify policy implications in relation to the issue of land use allocation, and the poor profitability in palm oil biodiesel production. The overarching objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of prevailing policies used to promote the palm oil agro-industry for biodiesel production in Indonesia. The thesis is framed by policy research and ex-post policy evaluation. The focus is on the process of policy formulation and implementation, rather than outcome evaluation. Two specific analytical frameworks are used to answer the research questions while addressing the criteria of effectiveness in policy evaluation: (i) policy coherence analysis and (ii) life cycle cost analysis. Qualitative indicators are used to measure the coherence of biofuel policy with other sectoral policies (agriculture, climate and forestry) in relation to land allocation. Quantitative economic indicators are used to compare the costs and benefits of conventional palm oil biodiesel production with a biorefinery conceptual plant. There are valuable lessons to be learnt from this policy evaluation. The results indicate areas in which policy effectiveness can be improved. For land allocation, adjustments and improvements in policy formulation and implementation are crucial. Uncertainties when it comes to the allocation of land to meet multi sectoral policy goals are to be addressed by clarifying land use definitions and categories, which should be backed up by consistent land use definitions in various policy documents. The dual land classification presently applied should move towards a single land classification, linking actual landscape coverage and the legal status of the land. Policy information and guidance across sectoral policies should be compiled in a single database. Such a publicly available database would help enhance the efficiency of land allocation for multiple policy purposes. More importantly, the formulation of biodiesel policy has to engage various sectoral policies that compete for the same resources. The biorefinery conceptual plant allows the reduction of government subsidies, while also providing a pathway to enhance the use of renewable energy and reduce GHG emissions. Policies have been designed to enhance plant profits through the improved utilisation of biomass residues in the palm oil mill for energy generation and composting. However, the low implementation rate of policies indicates the need to improve the effectiveness of policy implementation, and therefore the need for better monitoring processes, and possibly more stringent consequences for non-compliance. / <p>QC 20180223</p>

El principal objetivo de la presente tesis radica en la comparación de diferentes metodologías para comparar el nivel de desarrollo de los sistemas regionales de innovación. Una de las principales aportaciones es determinar por un lado el grado de robustez que las metodologías de evaluación de la capacidad innovadora ofrecen en la esfera regional. Tras haber observado las principales características así como las debilidades de dichos métodos, se pretende analizar las posibilidades que ofrece el análisis de eficiencia como método complementario en el estudio de la capacidad innovadora. El por qué de la utilización del concepto de eficiencia como propuesta alternativa a las existentes en la bibliografía radica en que las metodologías existentes están principalmente basadas en el concepto de cuanto más mejor , ya que su principal fundamento está en la cantidad de recursos utilizados, pero no en la forma en la que son empleados. En este sentido, creemos que la otra gran aportación de la tesis consistirá en mostrar la necesidad de incorporar criterios de eficiencia a las metodologías de evaluación (o benchmarking regional) de la capacidad innovadora. La metodología de actuación está constituida por tres principales líneas de actuación que se han definido como prioritarias para la consecución de los objetivos planteados con anterioridad: 1.- Comparar metodologías orientadas hacia la determinación de la capacidad innovadora regional en las comunidades autónomas españolas. 2.- Realizar un benchmarking sobre el Sistema Valenciano de Innovación. 3.- Mostrar la necesidad de complementar las metodologías de evaluación de la capacidad innovadora regional empleando para ello criterios de eficiencia. / Zabala Iturriagagoitia, JM. (2008). Benchmarking Regional Innovation Systems: the relevance of efficiency towards their performance [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/3787

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master’s Degree in Public Management, Department of Public Management & Economics, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2016. / In order to eradicate the legacy of the apartheid past, the South African democratic government adopted a development approach to local government. This necessitated a commitment on the part of local government, through the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), to facilitating community participation by finding ways to meet economic, social and material needs, as well as improving quality of life. The IDP can only be well received and implemented if there is an effective public participation process to ensure that the needs and aspirations of the people are met. This research focused primarily on evaluating community participation in the IDP process through the use of the case study of Umzumbe Municipality in the KwaZulu-Natal province. Furthermore, the research answers the following questions: to what extent do communities participate in the IDP process?; what were the challenges facing communities with regard to participation in the IDP process?; and what was the role of ward councillors and ward committees in promoting community participation in the IDP process? In order to answer these questions, an empirical study was conducted using quantitative research methodology. The case study approach was used in this study in order to obtain detailed views of respondents and issues relating to the objectives of the study. Using the quantitative research methodology, the study employed a questionnaire to collect information linked to community participation. Three hundred and ninety respondents from ten wards in the local municipality were randomly sampled. In addition, ten ward councillors were requested to participate in the study in order to explore the factors influencing community participation in the study area. The questionnaires were developed and approved by the Durban University of Technology’s ethics committee before the commencement of the study. Data was then collected. The results of the study, conclusions and recommendations are provided in a way that will enable the reader to draw his or her own conclusions on the value of this study. The study was worth undertaking since the challenges of community participation for local economic development and the IDP enhance service delivery. The results of the study should expand the knowledge base of rural community participation in the IDP process in Umzumbe Municipality. The findings of this study should benefit the municipality by highlighting the challenges of community involvement in the IDP process. The envisaged outcome of this study is the development of a theoretical framework for rural community participation in the IDP process in local government. Findings from the study point to the profusion of poor or non-participation of the community in the IDP process. The study shows sour relationship between ward councillors, ward committee members and community members. Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations have been made: upgrade levels of education/capacity development for ward councillors, ward committee members and community members; poverty alleviation and economic development to create employment; encourage youth and adults to engage in public forums; encourage the involvement of all stakeholders in the identification of development initiatives; co-ordination and information sharing sessions; and systems of monitoring and evaluation should be put in place to monitor community participation in the IDP process, with guidelines for the implementation of community participation initiatives. / M

本文旨在探討台灣省政府消滅貧窮政策「小康計畫」的制定經過及執行情形，各章要 點如下： 第一章─緒論；先闡明公共政策的意義及小康計畫的實施經過，次說明本文的研究動 機、目的、研究方法、分析架構、研究範圍和所受限制。 第二章─政策的形成；先說明「小康計畫」政策形成的背景，次說明台灣省貧窮問題 的狀況及政府當局對該問題的體認，並探究貧窮問題進入政府議程的過程。 第三章─政策的規劃與合法化；說明政策規劃的內涵。次分別探究「小康計畫」政策 規劃和合法化的過程。 第四章─政策的執行；分別說明「小康計畫」政策執行的機構、經費、人員、貢目， 並以統計數字說明執行的實際效果。 第五章─政策的評估；先說明政策評估的必要性和重要性，次就政策形成、政策規劃 和化法化、政策執行第三個過程，檢討台灣省消滅貧窮政策。 第六章─結論；依據前述各章的分析說明與檢討，提出研究心得與建議意見，期能有 助於政府爾後制定社會福利政策的充實與改進。

La criminalità organizzata ha aumentato la propria presenza nell’economia legale attraverso l’infiltrazione in aziende, generando così delle conseguenze negative per il sistema economico e alterando le relazioni tra attori economici. Molti paesi europei hanno adottato dei sistemi di recupero di capitali illeciti, ma l’Italia è la sola che prevede anche il recupero di aziende come misura di contrasto efficace. La politica di recupero dei capitali illeciti dovrebbe ridurre l’infiltrazione della criminalità organizzata nelle aziende, ma ad oggi è assente una valutazione la politica di recupero delle aziende infiltrate da gruppi criminali. Questa tesi intende valutare la politica di recupero delle aziende infiltrate dalla criminalità organizzata in Italia. L’analisi riguarda la valutazione dell’efficacia, efficienza e impatto di questa politica e, attraverso lo studio di nove casi, propone un nuovo quadro di analisi che combina diversi metodi (es. analisi degli indici di bilancio) e fonti (es. casi giudiziari e bilanci). Lo studio dei casi mostra che il recupero delle aziende è efficace se l’amministratore giudiziario ha esperienze manageriali; è efficiente se i procedimenti di recupero sono brevi e l’azienda viene destinata ad uso sociale; ed ha un impatto positivo se i media e le associazioni locali si interessano alle sorti dell’azienda. / By misusing legitimate businesses, organised crime is increasingly present in legal economies, generating serious consequences for legal systems and distorting relationships among legal actors. Several European countries have adopted asset-recovery regimes, but Italy is the only one that foresees the confiscation of companies as an effective countermeasure. Taking profits out of crime should curtail its infiltration into legitimate businesses, but there are no evaluations of the recovery of companies once infiltrated by organised crime. This study aims to evaluate the recovery of confiscated companies infiltrated by organised crime in Italy. It measures the effectiveness, efficiency and impact of this policy, and, analysing nine cases to assess the achievement of the policy objectives, proposes a new analytical framework that combines different methods (e.g. financial ratio analysis) and sources (e.g. judicial files and balance sheets) to evaluate asset-recovery policies. The results from case studies show that the recovery of companies is effective if the legal administrator has managerial skills; it is efficient if the proceedings are short and the company is disposed to social reuse; and it has a positive impact if media and local associations show an interest in the company.