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本文探討退休金發展程度與投資策略對股票市場發展的影響，並同時採用「縱橫門檻迴歸模型」（panel threshold model, PTM）及結合縱橫門檻模型與穩健迴歸的「穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型」（robust panel threshold model, ROPTM）來研究此一議題。我們用退休基金投資證券市場的金額佔總額的比例為分類標準，將樣本分為高投資比例與低投資比例兩部分。對部分OECD國家及台灣的panel data分析後之結果顯示：在股票市場方面，若基金採高投資比例之投資策略，則退休金發展或投資股市比例越高，越能促進股市發展；採低投資比例策略的基金，對股市發展的影響並不顯著。 / This paper analyzes the impact of pension fund investment on securities markets using a panel threshold model (PTM) and a robust panel threshold model (ROPTM) which combines a panel threshold model with a robust regression model. We use panel data for some OECD countries and Taiwan to test the validity of our propositions. The data is divided into low and high investment regions based on the value of securities as a percentage of total financial assets of the pension fund. Our results are the following. In the high stock investment region, pension funds have a positive impact on stock markets. Whereas, in the low stock investment region, the positive impact seems to disappear.

This thesis deals with modern statistical approaches and their application aimed at robust methods and neural network modelling. Selected methods are analyzed and applied on frequent practical problems in czech industry and technology. Topics and methods are to be benificial in real applications compared to currently used classical methods. Applicability and effectivity of the algorithms is verified and demonstrated on real studies and problems in czech industrial and research bodies. The great and unexploited potential of modern theoretical and computational capacity and the potential of new approaces to statistical modelling and methods. A significant result of this thesis is also an environment for software application development for data analysis with own programming language DARWin (Data Analysis Robot for Windows) for implemenation of effective numerical algorithms for extaction information from data. The thesis should be an incentive for boarder use of robust and computationally intensive methods as neural networks for modelling processes, quality control and generally better understanding of nature.

Submitted by Maria Aparecida (cidazen@gmail.com) on 2017-08-24T11:30:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Lima.pdf: 9275191 bytes, checksum: 7f56bba066e97503f4da03ab7ab861c9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-24T11:30:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Lima.pdf: 9275191 bytes, checksum: 7f56bba066e97503f4da03ab7ab861c9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-31 / A fuzzy project Takagi-Sugeno (TS) with robust stability based on the specifications of the gain and phase margins via multi-objective genetic algorithm in continuos time domain is proposed in this master thesis. A Fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering algorithm is used to estimate the antecedent parameters and rules number of a fuzzy TS model by means of the input and output experimental data of the plant to be controlled, while minimum squares algorithm estimate the consequent parameters. A multi-objective genetic strategy is defined to adjust the parameters of a fuzzy PID controller, so that, the gain and phase margins of the fuzzy control system are close to the specified values. Two theorems are proposed to analyse the necessary and sufficient conditions for the fuzzy PID controller design to ensure the robust stability in the close-loop control. The fuzzy PID controller was simulated in the Simulink environment and compared with lead and delay compensator. Experimental results obtained in a control platform in real time to validation the methodology proposed are presented and compared with fuzzy PID controller obtained by the Ziegler Nichols method. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and practical feasibility of the proposed methodology. / Um projeto de controle nebuloso Takagi-Sugeno(TS) com estabilidade robusta baseado nas especificações das margens de ganho e fase via algoritmo genético multiobjetivo no domínio do tempo contínuo é proposto nesta dissertação. Um algoritmo de agrupamento Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) é usado para estimar os parâmetros do antecedente e o número da regras de um modelo nebuloso TS, por meio dos dados experimentais de entrada e de saída da planta a ser controlada, enquanto que o algoritmo de mínimos quadrados estima os parâmetros do consequente. Uma estratégia genética multiobjetiva é definida para ajustar os parâmetros de um controlador PID nebuloso, de modo que, as margens de ganho e fase do sistema de controle nebuloso estejam próximos dos valores especificados. São propostos dois teoremas que analisam as condições necessárias e suficientes para o projeto do controlador PID nebuloso de modo a garantir a estabilidade robusta na malha de controle. O controlador PID nebuloso foi simulado no ambiente Simulink e comparado com compensadores de avanço e de atraso e os resultados analisados. Resultados experimentais obtidos em uma plataforma de controle, em tempo real, para validação da metodologia proposta são apresentados e comparado com controlador PID nebuloso obtido pelo método de Ziegler Nichols. Os resultados obtidos demonstram a eficácia e viabilidade prática da metodologia proposta.

在一般的研究過程中均可能有離群觀測值產生，只要有離群觀測值存在， 就可能對研究結果產生極重大的影響。在統計學上常用的參數估計式中， 有許多極易受離群觀測值影響。因此本研究採用模糊族群分析混合最大概 似估計演算法運用在參數估計上，以去除離群觀測值對分析結果的影響。 本研究主要針對相關係數與迴歸係數的估計進行探討，利用演算法中所求 得之隸屬度，計算穩健相關係數和穩健迴歸係數，以期能正確估計參數值 。

Treatment planning for radiation therapy inherently involves tradeoffs, such as between tumor control and normal tissue sparing, between time-efficiency and dose quality, and between nominal plan quality and robustness. The purpose of this thesis is to develop methods that can facilitate decision making related to such tradeoffs. The main focus of the thesis is on multicriteria optimization methods where a representative set of treatment plans are first calculated and the most appropriate plan contained in this representation then selected by the treatment planner through continuous interpolation between the precalculated alternatives. These alternatives constitute a subset of the set of Pareto optimal plans, meaning plans such that no criterion can be improved without a sacrifice in another. Approximation of Pareto optimal sets is first studied with respect to fluence map optimization for intensity-modulated radiation therapy. The approximation error of a discrete representation is minimized by calculation of points one at the time at the location where the distance between an inner and outer approximation of the Pareto set currently attains its maximum. A technique for calculating this distance that is orders of magnitude more efficient than the best previous method is presented. A generalization to distributed computational environments is also proposed. Approximation of Pareto optimal sets is also considered with respect to direct machine parameter optimization. Optimization of this form is used to calculate representations where any interpolated treatment plan is directly deliverable. The fact that finite representations of Pareto optimal sets have approximation errors with respect to Pareto optimality is addressed by a technique that removes these errors by a projection onto the exact Pareto set. Projections are also studied subject to constraints that prevent the dose-volume histogram from deteriorating. Multicriteria optimization is extended to treatment planning for volumetric-modulated arc therapy and intensity-modulated proton therapy. Proton therapy plans that are robust against geometric errors are calculated by optimization of the worst case outcome. The theory for multicriteria optimization is extended to accommodate this formulation. Worst case optimization is shown to be preferable to a previous more conservative method that also protects against uncertainties which cannot be realized in practice. / En viktig aspekt av planering av strålterapibehandlingar är avvägningar mellan behandlingsmål vilka står i konflikt med varandra. Exempel på sådana avvägningar är mellan tumörkontroll och dos till omkringliggande frisk vävnad, mellan behandlingstid och doskvalitet, och mellan nominell plankvalitet och robusthet med avseende på geometriska fel. Denna avhandling syftar till att utveckla metoder som kan underlätta beslutsfattande kring motstridiga behandlingsmål. Primärt studeras en metod för flermålsoptimering där behandlingsplanen väljs genom kontinuerlig interpolation över ett representativt urval av förberäknade alternativ. De förberäknade behandlingsplanerna utgör en delmängd av de Paretooptimala planerna, det vill säga de planer sådana att en förbättring enligt ett kriterium inte kan ske annat än genom en försämring enligt ett annat. Beräkning av en approximativ representation av mängden av Paretooptimala planer studeras först med avseende på fluensoptimering för intensitetsmodulerad strålterapi. Felet för den approximativa representationen minimeras genom att innesluta mängden av Paretooptimala planer mellan inre och yttre approximationer. Dessa approximationer förfinas iterativt genom att varje ny plan genereras där avståndet mellan approximationerna för tillfället är som störst. En teknik för att beräkna det maximala avståndet mellan approximationerna föreslås vilken är flera storleksordningar snabbare än den bästa tidigare kända metoden. En generalisering till distribuerade beräkningsmiljöer föreslås även. Approximation av mängden av Paretooptimala planer studeras även för direkt maskinparameteroptimering, som används för att beräkna representationer där varje interpolerad behandlingsplan är direkt levererbar. Det faktum att en ändlig representation av mängden av Paretooptimala lösningar har ett approximationsfel till Paretooptimalitet hanteras via en metod där en interpolerad behandlingsplan projiceras på Paretomängden. Projektioner studeras även under bivillkor som förhindrar att den interpolerade planens dos-volym histogram kan försämras. Flermålsoptimering utökas till planering av rotationsterapi och intensitetsmodulerad protonterapi. Protonplaner som är robusta mot geometriska fel beräknas genom optimering med avseende på det värsta möjliga utfallet av de föreliggande osäkerheterna. Flermålsoptimering utökas även teoretiskt till att innefatta denna formulering. Nyttan av värsta fallet-optimering jämfört med tidigare mer konservativa metoder som även skyddar mot osäkerheter som inte kan realiseras i praktiken demonstreras experimentellt. / <p>QC 20130527</p>

Models are important tools for understanding the hydrological processes that govern water transport in the landscape and for prediction at times and places where no observations are available. The degree of trust placed on models, however, should not exceed the quality of the data they are fed with. The overall aim of this thesis was to tune the modeling process to account for the uncertainty in the data, by identifying robust parameter values using methods from computational geometry. The methods were developed and tested on data from the Choluteca River basin in Honduras. Quality control of precipitation and discharge data resulted in a rejection of 22% percent of daily raingage data and the complete removal of one out of the seven discharge stations analyzed. The raingage network was not found sufficient to capture the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Choluteca River basin. The temporal variability of discharge was evaluated through a Monte Carlo assessment of the rating-equation parameter values over a moving time window of stage-discharge measurements. Al hydrometric stations showed considerable temporal variability in the stage-discharge relationship, which was largest for low flows, albeit with no common trend. The problem with limited data quality was addressed by identifying robust model parameter values within the set of well-performing (behavioral) parameter-value vectors with computational-geometry methods. The hypothesis that geometrically deep parameter-value vectors within the behavioral set were hydrologically robust was tested, and verified, using two depth functions. Deep parameter-value vectors tended to perform better than shallow ones, were less sensitive to small changes in their values, and were better suited to temporal transfer. Depth functions rank multidimensional data. Methods to visualize the multivariate distribution of behavioral parameters based on the ranked values were developed. It was shown that, by projecting along a common dimension, the multivariate distribution of behavioral parameters for models of varying complexity could be compared using the proposed visualization tools. This has a potential to aid in the selection of an adequate model structure considering the uncertainty in the data. These methods allowed to quantify observational uncertainties. Geometric methods have only recently begun to be used in hydrology. It was shown that they can be used to identify robust parameter values, and some of their potential uses were highlighted. / Modeller är viktiga verktyg för att förstå de hydrologiska processer som bestämmer vattnets transport i landskapet och för prognoser för tider och platser där det saknas mätdata. Graden av tillit till modeller bör emellertid inte överstiga kvaliteten på de data som de matas med. Det övergripande syftet med denna avhandling var att anpassa modelleringsprocessen så att den tar hänsyn till osäkerheten i data och identifierar robusta parametervärden med hjälp av metoder från beräkningsgeometrin. Metoderna var utvecklade och testades på data från Cholutecaflodens avrinningsområde i Honduras. Kvalitetskontrollen i nederbörds- och vattenföringsdata resulterade i att 22 % av de dagliga nederbördsobservationerna måste kasseras liksom alla data från en av sju analyserade vattenföringsstationer. Observationsnätet för nederbörd befanns otillräckligt för att fånga upp den rumsliga och tidsmässiga variabiliteten i den övre delen av Cholutecaflodens avrinningsområde. Vattenföringens tidsvariation utvärderades med en Monte Carlo-skattning av värdet på parametrarna i avbördningskurvan i ett rörligt tidsfönster av vattenföringsmätningar. Alla vattenföringsstationer uppvisade stor tidsvariation i avbördningskurvan som var störst för låga flöden, dock inte med någon gemensam trend. Problemet med den måttliga datakvaliteten bedömdes med hjälp av robusta modellparametervärden som identifierades med hjälp av beräkningsgeometriska metoder. Hypotesen att djupa parametervärdesuppsättningar var robusta testades och verifierades genom två djupfunktioner. Geometriskt djupa parametervärdesuppsättningar verkade ge bättre hydrologiska resultat än ytliga, var mindre känsliga för små ändringar i parametervärden och var bättre lämpade för förflyttning i tiden. Metoder utvecklades för att visualisera multivariata fördelningar av välpresterande parametrar baserade på de rangordnade värdena. Genom att projicera längs en gemensam dimension, kunde multivariata fördelningar av välpresterande parametrar hos modeller med varierande komplexitet jämföras med hjälp av det föreslagna visualiseringsverktyget. Det har alltså potentialen att bistå vid valet av en adekvat modellstruktur som tar hänsyn till osäkerheten i data. Dessa metoder möjliggjorde kvantifiering av observationsosäkerheter. Geometriska metoder har helt nyligen börjat användas inom hydrologin. I studien demonstrerades att de kan användas för att identifiera robusta parametervärdesuppsättningar och några av metodernas potentiella användningsområden belystes.

El problema de encontrar condiciones robustas al efecto de factores no controlados es un tema que interesa enormemente a las empresas ya que es una característica que demanda el mercado. Existen básicamente dos métodos para estudiar el problema: El que se basa en el método propuesto por G. Taguchi a comienzos de los 80's con el que se aproxima la variabilidad a partir de matrices producto y se seleccionan las condiciones robustas minimizando la respuesta, o el que parte de una matriz más económica que permite estimar un modelo para la respuesta Y en función de los factores de control y ruido, y estudia las condiciones robustas a partir de las interacciones entre los factores ruido y los factores de control. Aunque en un principio cabrían esperar resultados muy similares analizando un mismo problema por las dos vías hemos encontrado ejemplos donde las conclusiones son muy dispares y por ello nos hemos planteado este trabajo de investigación para encontrar las causas de estas diferencias.El trabajo de investigación lo hemos iniciado estudiando la naturaleza de las superficies asociadas a la variabilidad provocada por factores ruido realizando el estudio de forma secuencial aumentando el número de factores ruido. Hemos demostrado que independientemente de que la métrica seleccionada sea s2(Y), s(Y) o lo(s(Y)) las superficies difícilmente podrán ser aproximadas por polinomios de primer orden en los factores de control llegando a la conclusión de que algunas de las estrategias habituales que los experimentadores utilizan en la práctica difícilmente llevan a un buen conocimiento de esta superficie. Por ejemplo no es adecuado colocar un diseño 2k-p de Resolución III en los factores de control en una matriz producto siendo recomendables diseños de Resolución IV con puntos centrales.A continuación se han supuesto dos fuentes de variación en la respuesta debidas a ruido, fuentes desconocidas para el experimentador, y se ha estudiado la sensibilidad de los dos métodos para recoger estas oportunidades de reducción de la variabilidad demostrándose que el modelo para métricas resumen está más preparado para recoger todas las fuentes de variación que el modelo a partir de métricas no-resumen, el cual es muy sensible a la estimación del modelo de Y.Por último se ha investigado sobre los errores más comunes a la hora de seleccionar las condiciones robustas a partir de gráficos.

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate risk neutral and risk averse approaches to multistage stochastic programming with applications to hydrothermal operation planning problems. The purpose of hydrothermal system operation planning is to define an operation strategy which, for each stage of the planning period, given the system state at the beginning of the stage, produces generation targets for each plant. This problem can be formulated as a large scale multistage stochastic linear programming problem. The energy rationing that took place in Brazil in the period 2001/2002 raised the question of whether a policy that is based on a criterion of minimizing the expected cost (i.e. risk neutral approach) is a valid one when it comes to meet the day-to-day supply requirements and taking into account severe weather conditions that may occur. The risk averse methodology provides a suitable framework to remedy these deficiencies. This thesis attempts to provide a better understanding of the risk averse methodology from the practice perspective and suggests further possible alternatives using robust optimization techniques. The questions investigated and the contributions of this thesis are as follows. First, we suggest a multiplicative autoregressive time series model for the energy inflows that can be embedded into the optimization problem that we investigate. Then, computational aspects related to the stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) algorithm are discussed. We investigate the stopping criteria of the algorithm and provide a framework for assessing the quality of the policy. The SDDP method works reasonably well when the number of state variables is relatively small while the number of stages can be large. However, as the number of state variables increases the convergence of the SDDP algorithm can become very slow. Afterwards, performance improvement techniques of the algorithm are discussed. We suggest a subroutine to eliminate the redundant cutting planes in the future cost functions description which allows a considerable speed up factor. Also, a design using high performance computing techniques is discussed. Moreover, an analysis of the obtained policy is outlined with focus on specific aspects of the long term operation planning problem. In the risk neutral framework, extreme events can occur and might cause considerable social costs. These costs can translate into blackouts or forced rationing similarly to what happened in 2001/2002 crisis. Finally, issues related to variability of the SAA problems and sensitivity to initial conditions are studied. No significant variability of the SAA problems is observed. Second, we analyze the risk averse approach and its application to the hydrothermal operation planning problem. A review of the methodology is suggested and a generic description of the SDDP method for coherent risk measures is presented. A detailed study of the risk averse policy is outlined for the hydrothermal operation planning problem using different risk measures. The adaptive risk averse approach is discussed under two different perspectives: one through the mean-$avr$ and the other through the mean-upper-semideviation risk measures. Computational aspects for the hydrothermal system operation planning problem of the Brazilian interconnected power system are discussed and the contributions of the risk averse methodology when compared to the risk neutral approach are presented. We have seen that the risk averse approach ensures a reduction in the high quantile values of the individual stage costs. This protection comes with an increase of the average policy value - the price of risk aversion. Furthermore, both of the risk averse approaches come with practically no extra computational effort and, similarly to the risk neutral method, there was no significant variability of the SAA problems. Finally, a methodology that combines robust and stochastic programming approaches is investigated. In many situations, such as the operation planning problem, the involved uncertain parameters can be naturally divided into two groups, for one group the robust approach makes sense while for the other the stochastic programming approach is more appropriate. The basic ideas are discussed in the multistage setting and a formulation with the corresponding dynamic programming equations is presented. A variant of the SDDP algorithm for solving this class of problems is suggested. The contributions of this methodology are illustrated with computational experiments of the hydrothermal operation planning problem and a comparison with the risk neutral and risk averse approaches is presented. The worst-case-expectation approach constructs a policy that is less sensitive to unexpected demand increase with a reasonable loss on average when compared to the risk neutral method. Also, we comp are the suggested method with a risk averse approach based on coherent risk measures. On the one hand, the idea behind the risk averse method is to allow a trade off between loss on average and immunity against unexpected extreme scenarios. On the other hand, the worst-case-expectation approach consists in a trade off between a loss on average and immunity against unanticipated demand increase. In some sense, there is a certain equivalence between the policies constructed using each of these methods.