Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

Agroforestry (AF) or agroforestry innovation (AFI) production has long been and continues to be a component of the mixed farming system of Ethiopian and smallholder farmers worldwide. Interventions continue introducing new or improved management practices, species, and techniques to raise AFI's livelihood and natural resource management contributions. Despite considerable efforts, the adoption of these AFI continues to be limited, as proved by several adoption studies and development efforts. Formal and informal studies were conducted for decades to understand the problems for the low adoption of various AFI. Nevertheless, these studies generated redundant and marginally growing important information as it has weakly altered the course of development approaches and policy regulations. Learning from previous studies, researchers have been requesting more robust studies that help address existing knowledge gaps on adopting AFI. To respond to these calls, this PhD project examined the factors affecting the adoption of AFI by smallholders and Ethiopian farmers as a case study. The project builds upon previous studies to explore the diverse perspectives that influence the adoption of AFI. Literature assessment of recent studies indicated that several factors belonging to farmers and institutions influence the adoption of AFI. Simultaneously, we discovered that some issues were explored frequently (e.g., socioeconomic factors), whereas others (e.g., psychological factors) were largely ignored. Besides, researchers have followed the static assumption (i.e., adopt or non-adopt) and failed to learn the adoption process beyond a one-time decision. Additionally, the studies focused on discrete factors and activities and failed to comprehend the diverse perspectives and factors and their combined effect on eventual AFI adoption. Ultimately, learning from the larger adoption science and previous studies, we developed a comprehensive framework, 'AFI adoption framework' (chapter 4.1), that supports the meaningful assessment of adoption practices and comprehensively discovers factors influencing AFI adoption. The framework encompassed three compartmentalized and yet interlinked components that influence AFI adoption under smallholder contexts. The framework commended both distinct studies for exhaustive elaboration and simultaneously suggested holistic examination. Besides, it recommended minor and major modifications to the research approaches, such as proper treatment of variables in econometric models, incorporation of variables related to the psychological status, and employment of robust tools such as the real-options approach for profitability analysis. Based on this framework, we designed a project and conducted fieldwork in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, a typical smallholder context. We explored the household contexts (i.e., farm level and psychological), system level features, and innovation characteristics influencing smallholders' AFI adoption decisions. It employed mixed conventional and advanced analytical tools comprising content analysis, econometric models, principal component analysis, and financial discounting methods. Advanced methods comprehend process analysis and adoption dynamism. The results from discrete analysis indicated that socioeconomic factors, psychological constructs, system level features, and innovation attributes influence AFI adoption. Regarding innovation characteristics, the different attributes are foundations for undertaking AFI adoption decisions of smallholder farmers. Beyond adopt-non-adopt concepts, we found farmers continuously undertake follow-up adoptions of varying extents such as reduced, maintained, and increased. Based on our query and comparable to existing frameworks, the newly developed 'AFI adoption framework' is more reasonable to meaningfully investigate factors influencing AFI (and agricultural innovations) adoption under smallholder contexts. However, there is a need for precaution while employing the framework to more clearly discern the adoption process and reflect the integration among the factors and activities involved from the development to the adoption of AFI. This dissertation excluded empirical analysis of profitability and holistic assessment due to the voluminous nature of the dissertation.:PREFACE ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii SUMMARY iv ZUSAMMENFASSUNG vi LIST OF FIGURES ix LIST OF TABLES xi ACRONYMS xi 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Agroforestry in Ethiopia 1 1.2. Problem statement 4 1.3. Objectives and research questions 6 1.4. Scope of the study 7 1.5. Dissertation structure 8 2. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 11 2.1. The adoption concept 11 2.2. Theoretical frameworks on adoption 12 2.3. The critique and research context 16 2.4. The AFI adoption analytical framework 17 2.5. Description of links between objectives and research questions 19 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 21 3.1. Description of the study area 21 3.2. Selection of innovations and farmers 22 3.3. Research methods 23 3.3.1. Data collection methods 23 3.3.2. Sampling technique and sample size 24 3.3.3. Data analysis 25 4. RESULTS 26 4.1. Agroforestry adoption as a systems concept: a review 27 4.2. Can a sequential analysis provide a more robust understanding of farmers’ adoption decisions? an example from an agroforestry adoption study in Ethiopia 58 4.3. Farmers’ intentions towards sustained agroforestry adoption: an application of the theory of planned behavior 88 4.4. Adoption under the influence of innovation attributes: the case of agroforestry innovations from Ethiopia 111 4.5. Influence of system level factors on adoption of agroforestry innovations 141 5. SYNTHESIS and CONCLUSION 170 5.1. Synthesis of key findings 170 5.1.1. State of AFI adoption research in SSA 170 5.1.2. Persistent calls for rigorous research 172 5.1.3. Critical factors affecting AFI adoption 173 5.1.4. Conceptualizing adoption as a complex decision process 175 5.2. Reflections on research method, theoretical framework, and generalization 177 5.2.1. Reflection on research methods and analytical generalization 177 5.2.2. Reflection on the theoretical framework and theoretical contribution 179 5.3. Outlook and suggestions 184 5.4.1. Recommendations for future research 185 5.4.2. Development and policy recommendations 186 5.5. Limitations of the study 186 REFERENCES 187 APPENDICES 192

Urban quality of life is measured by how clean the environment is, how safe people feel, how close they are to green spaces, and in general by the quality of outdoor space. Good quality public spaces are spaces that reduce road accidents through managing appropriately different transport modes, especially walking and cycling [1]. Cycling is healthy, economical, and environmentally sound form of mobility that is fundamental to life. More than one billion of the people in African cities walk or cycle for more than 55 minutes every day - to reach work, home, school, and other essential services [2]. One-third of the population of the African continent uses active mobility as a daily means of transport. This reveals that there is a potential of using cycling as a daily mode of travel in Africa. However, the poor quality of infrastructure for cycling sends a message that cyclists are not welcome in the urban environment. Despite the widespread use of non-motorized modes, transport planning and the provision of infrastructure in most of the cities in Africa have become carcentered, undermining the importance of cycling and walking. While the majority in the global south are active mobility users, they are not being respected by the public policies and experience 93% of the world's traffic fatalities and injuries [3]. Road traffic accidents are a major shes are not different in Africa. The World Health Organization Global Status report on Road Safety 2018 showed that the African region had 26.6 deaths per 100,000 populations, which is the highest among all regions [5]. Sub-Saharan Africa still has the highest per capita rate of road fatalities of any region in the world. Unfortunately, in most cases, the victims of traffic casualties are primarily pedestrians and cyclists [6]. Much of that is linked to the neglect of the infrastructure needs for pedestrians' and cyclists' safety. [From: Introduction]

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Bamboo is an abundant resource in Ethiopia and has a great potential for commercialization, which can drive rural development. In view of these realities, this study analyzed the state and determinants of small-scale bamboo commercialization in Ethiopia. Data were collected from three major bamboo-growing districts (Awi, Sidama, and Sheka) and four urban centers (Masha, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, and Addis Ababa) via semi-structured interviews, group discussions, and questionnaire surveys with key actors along the value chain. Results revealed distinctive differences in proportion of cash income, value chain structure, and management engagement among the districts. Percentages of cash income were 60.15, 42.60, and 9.48 at Awi, Sidam, and Sheka, respectively. Differences were statistically significant between Sheka and both other districts (p = 0.05), but not between Awi and Sidama. The value chain structure showed that compared with Sheka, Awi and Sidama have a relatively large number of actors involved. The major factors explaining commercialization differences among regions were distance to market and presence of alternative forest products. Within Sheka, households with larger family size, higher education attainment, and access to training reportedly engaged more in commercial extraction. Therefore, we conclude that development of infrastructure for linking resource and consumer centers and expansion of extension education among producers may enhance the commercial engagement of producers and improve the accessibility of bamboo resources for commercial production.

Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. This is because its important economic sector, agriculture, is virtually rain-fed. The role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the anticipated biophysical impacts of climate change necessitates proactive adaptation in agriculture. This, however, breeds questions of adaptation costs and adaptation finance. This study attempts to derive plausible range of planned adaptation costs in agriculture along with their economy-wide and regional effects in Ethiopia. It also assess the economy-wide and regional effects of the likely options available to a government of a least-developed country to finance adaptation in agriculture. The results show that planned public adaptation in agriculture puts pressure on government surplus, impedes on manufacturing and private services, and GDP of urbanized regions. As such, it may strain the current macroeconomic endeavors of the country which puts government driven structural transformation and reducing fiscal deficit relative to GDP at the center. Government of Ethiopia may reconcile this by laying out incentives to urban agriculture and private investment in agriculture. Besides, foreign support in the form of biotechnology transfer and debt-relief may help to control the side effects of grants on foreign exchange market and trade balance.

This policy brief deals with the research findings of the collaborative research project “CHAnces IN Sustainability – promoting natural resource based product chains in East Africa” (CHAINS) funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, and the DLR Project Management Agency. It presents the studies investigating the value chains of highland BAMBOO and NATURAL GUM AND RESIN products in Ethiopia as well as GUM ARABIC value chains in Sudan. These products possess high eco¬nomic, social and environ¬mental benefits and untapped potentials. However, their pro-duction and commercialization are con¬strained seriously by various challenges limiting the realization of their potentials. Identified policy options are: • strengthen institutional capacity; • improve infrastructure and support services; • organize necessary information for sustainable utilization planning; • facilitate actors’ communication, innovation and fair partnership. This calls for forest product value chain development that is supported by policy, training, research, technology development and transfer, market linkage that consider private sectors, state, civic organizations, universities and research institutes.

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This paper examines the extent to which the economic gains derived from gum and resin commercialization impact rural livelihood improvement under different resource management regimes in the drylands of Ethiopia and Sudan. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 240 randomly selected small-scale producers in four regions with gradients of resource management regimes. The survey was supplemented by secondary data, group discussions and key informant interviews. In the four regions, gum and resin income contributes to 14%–23% of the small-scale producers’ household income. Absolute income was positively correlated with resource management regime and commercialization level. It was higher from cultivated resources on private lands, followed by regulated access to wild resources. In open-access resources, the producers’ income was the lowest, although accessed by the poor and women. However, dependence on gum and resin was higher in open-access resource areas. Households’ socioeconomic characteristics, resource access, production and marketing variables determining income from gum and resin were identified and their variation across the cases is discussed. Overall, gum and resin commercialization in the study areas play a potential poverty alleviation role as a source of regular income, a safety net, and a means of helping producers move out of poverty.

Bamboo is an abundant resource in Ethiopia and has a great potential for commercialization, which can drive rural development. In view of these realities, this study analyzed the state and determinants of small-scale bamboo commercialization in Ethiopia. Data were collected from three major bamboo-growing districts (Awi, Sidama, and Sheka) and four urban centers (Masha, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, and Addis Ababa) via semi-structured interviews, group discussions, and questionnaire surveys with key actors along the value chain. Results revealed distinctive differences in proportion of cash income, value chain structure, and management engagement among the districts. Percentages of cash income were 60.15, 42.60, and 9.48 at Awi, Sidam, and Sheka, respectively. Differences were statistically significant between Sheka and both other districts (p = 0.05), but not between Awi and Sidama. The value chain structure showed that compared with Sheka, Awi and Sidama have a relatively large number of actors involved. The major factors explaining commercialization differences among regions were distance to market and presence of alternative forest products. Within Sheka, households with larger family size, higher education attainment, and access to training reportedly engaged more in commercial extraction. Therefore, we conclude that development of infrastructure for linking resource and consumer centers and expansion of extension education among producers may enhance the commercial engagement of producers and improve the accessibility of bamboo resources for commercial production.