本研究係利用財務理論定價模型之實質選擇權擴張情境模式，以三項式選擇權評價方法，評估現行上市的不動產投資信託商品（REITs）的合理價值。並選定富邦一號與二號、國泰一號與二號、新光一號等5檔REITs商品進行評價分析。 　　經研究結果，其中有4檔REITs評價價值與其2010年財報淨值非常接近；此外，並有其中3檔REITs的評價價值，相對於財報的每股淨值，更為接近實際股票市場交易的最高價格，證明本研究的三項式選擇權評價模型可適用於REITs商品的評價方法。 / This paper employs the Trinomial Real Option Pricing Model for the valuation of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The following five REITs in Taiwan (or T-REITs) are selected for empirical analysis: Fubon No.1 and No.2 REITs, Cathay No.1 and No.2 REITs, and Shin Kong No.1 REITs. Results show that the values of four T-REITs values from the valuation model are very close to their book value in the end of 2010, and three T-REITs values are also similar to their highest prices in the exchange market. Conclusions of this study imply that the Trinomial Real Option Pricing Model may serve as a good approach for the valuation of REITs prices.

估價平滑相關研究大多採取Quan and Quigley（1991）提出的理性行為解釋估價師的部分調整行為。然而財務行為學認為行為人通常具有非理性的行為，因此本研究以保守性心理偏誤解釋部分調整行為，探討非理性心理對於估價師之影響。為了捕捉估價師個體的行為資訊，本研究以台灣不動產投資信託的重估價結果作為研究資料，檢視估價師對市場新資訊和過去估值的處理行為。本研究首先應用部分調整模型進行實證分析，結果發現台灣估價師確實具有部分調整行為，相對較低估市場價值資訊的權重，而此類保守性偏誤即為總體估價平滑效果的展現。此外進一步以Tobit Model進行市場價值資訊權重的影響因素分析，結果發現市場資訊的權重會受到心理效果而改變，當估價方法價值差異率越大時，估價師會降低市場資訊的權重，展現了對模糊事件的趨避傾向。捷思法可以幫助估價師提升效率，但過度依賴捷思法亦有可能引發錯誤和偏差；本研究發現模糊趨避效果顯示估價師更重視市場資訊的可信度，似較符合估價證據之要求，故非理性心理偏誤對估價師言非全為負面影響。 / Previous appraisal smoothing studies were based on the appraiser rational behavior assumptions which developed by Quan and Quigley (1991) and found that appraisers do insufficiently react to market fluctuate. However, this paper starts with behavioral finance theory to investigate the partial adjustment behavior of Taiwan appraisers, using the reappraisals of Taiwan Real Estate Investment Trust (T-REITs) to show each appraiser’s behavioral intention at disaggregate level which could be diversified away at aggregate level. This study tests the partial adjustment model to observe the weights of new market information and previous estimates of the same property reappraisal. The results show that Taiwan appraisers more rely on the previous estimates, namely the conservatism bias, which will induce the appraisal smoothing at aggregate level. Further, the Tobit Model is employed to test the influence factors of appraisers’ weight on new market information, and the results show weights on new market information will be affected by appraisers’ heuristics. There is a negative effect to weights on new market information which stands for the ambiguity aversion of appraisers. It shows appraiser do concern about the reliability of market evidence which is much accord with the appraisal normative model.

不動產證券化可行性之研究 摘要 為解決傳統不動產投資困境，將不動產投資方式由固定的資產形式轉變為證券型態的概念，而有不動產證券化（Real Estate Securitization）的產生。國內主要的不動產證券化模式分為不動產投資信託（Real Estate Investment Trust）與不動產資產信託（Real Estate Asset Trust），這兩種模式未來市場供需面實際運作的可行性為何，將是不動產證券化制度成功與否的重要關鍵。 本研究先從需求面投資者的角度切入，透過問卷調查資料，運用Logit模型探討證券化可行性因素對於投資者購買不動產受益證券的影響。實證結果發現，一般投資者認為受益證券的市場流通性、分散風險的重要性愈高，以及預期報酬率愈高，其購買不動產受益證券的可能性愈高；在總體因素方面，對於未來證券市場情況愈樂觀，以及房地產市場情況愈樂觀，其購買受益證券的機率將愈高；法人投資者則認為分散風險的重要性愈高，以及該法人機構主要投資工具的種類愈多，其購買不動產受益證券的機率愈大。 以供給面不動產持有者財務上的可行性而言，其財務目標在追求自身的ROE極大化，因此不動產持有者將視各項風險來源對於投資報酬的影響，決定是否運用證券化投資方式。模擬分析結果發現，除了不動產持有者本身的財務結構限制與不動產經營能力之外，在個別考量委託成本風險與開發風險的情況下，其對於不動產持有者ROE的影響較小，但營運風險相較於其他風險來源，對於不動產持有者ROE的影響較大；綜合各項風險來源同時納入考量時，發現不動產持有者自有資金比例愈低，其運用證券化方式的ROE較高，但變動的幅度也較大。此一實證與模擬分析結果，對於未來國內不動產證券化實際運作，可提供政府、業者及一般投資大眾作為決策參考。 關鍵字：不動產證券化、不動產投資信託、不動產資產信託、Logit模型、蒙地卡羅模擬 / A Feasibility Study of Real Estate Securitization in Taiwai Abstract By transforming real assets into securities , real estate securitization is created to solve the liquidity problem of real estate investment. The real estate securitization system in Taiwan is divided into two types - Real Estate Investment Trust and Real Estate Asset Trust. Whether the real estate securitization system succeeds or not is based on the feasibility of the market operation in practice. On the demand side, this research uses Logit model to analyze the impact of the feasibility of the real estate securitization system on the investors’ behavior of buying beneficiary certificates by sampling from intuitional investors and individual investors. The empirical results show that the individual investors emphasize on liquidity, divergence, and expected return. In addition, the probability of buying real estate beneficiary certificates increases with the degree of their optimistic expectation on both the stock and the real estate markets. However, the institutional investors regard the divergence of portfolios and investment instruments as the main factors of their buying those certificates. On the supply side, given the financial objective of ROE maximum, the owners of the real estate will review all of impacts of risk on return of investment before their decision to take the way of securitization. In addition to the financial structure and the management ability of the owners, the results of Monte Carlo simulation on the effect of real estate securitization also reveal that: a. There is little influence on the ROE of the owners’ real assets while taking trust cost risk and land development cost risk into consideration. b. The influence of operation risk on ROE is more than that of other risks. c. Lower the proportion of capital, higher the ROE and bigger the variation of the ROE are. The results of empirical analysis can be a reference of decision making for Government, trust industry, and investors in the real estate security market operation. Keywords：Real Estate Securitization , Real Estate Investment Trust , Real Estate Asset Trust , Logit Model , Monte Carlo Simulation

不動產證券化條例於2003年7月23日公佈實施以來，不動產投資信託受益證券(REITs)和不動產資產信託受益證券(REATs)均已發行多檔，信託財產種類含括辦公室、百貨公司、旅館、商務住宅等；不動產產權型態包含所有權與設定地上權二類。然而「設定地上權的不動產」其資產價值會隨著時間而遞減的特性，對於以封閉型態上市的REITs基金而言，將產生淨資產價值(NAV)不斷下跌的問題，為避免前項問題影響基金的市價(Market Price)表現，本研究將透過「中崙大樓」出售予「富邦二號不動產投資信託基金」的實施經驗、相關財務理論的佐證及專家學者的深度訪談，來研究提撥「投資本金攤提準備金」(Reserve Fund)機制的優缺點及替代方案。 本研究結果發現，在不動產市場穩定發展的情況下，Reserve Fund除了可對投資人產生節稅效果之外；對基金而言：可避免基金之淨資產價值(NAV)隨時間不斷遞減的問題、可供地上權到期時還本之用、得以分散投資風險並發揮良好的財務槓桿的效果。然而相對的，除非基金的年營收維持每年固定上漲，否則投資人的名目收益率可能會逐年下降，並產生資金運用的無效率狀況。 至於是否ㄧ定要提撥Reserve Fund，從本研究中發現，若從投資人偏好來看，所有淨收益每年均全部發放或設計為PO、IO二個群組，或發行有期限的Finite Life REITs都是可以替代的方案。從開發商的角度，則可以將應收租金債權設計為金融資產證券而不做REITs。 此外，本研究亦發現目前台灣REITs的投資人幾乎將REITs視為固定收益證券，致使其市價波動及成交量均極小，建議政府應放寬法令限制，致力於活絡交易市場，才能達到初衷。而受託機構應扮演更積極的角度並將其與管理機構間的責任與分工進一步釐清，以避免發生管理機構的代理問題，以期更健全市場的發展。 不動產證券化就是將金融商品的彈性注入不動產的開發，本研究為設定地上權的不動產找出參與REIT的配套機制，期許能對政府及產業有所貢獻。 / The Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) and Real Estate Asset Trust (REATs) securities had been issued since the “Real Estate backed securities Act” published on July 23rd, 2003. The properties being entrusted, for instance, office buildings, department stores, hotels, business suite, etc.. The right of property can be divided into two parts: the ownership and the superficies on land；However, the value of the properties with superficies right will be decreased when time passes by. The close-end fund will continually decline of Fund’s net asset value (NAV), and indirectly affect its market price. To solve such problems, the purpose of this research paper is to discuss the solution of the Reserve Fund design when the Chung-Lung building, offered by “ Fubon REITs no.2” , has its financial theories implication, also tried to interviews of scholars and professionals for the suggestions. From the result of this research paper, when the real estate market is at its steady growing stage, the Reserve Fund design can not only accurately solve to the problem of decreasing Fund’s NAV with time, but also it can bring such benefits as tax-saving and principle-paying at the expiration date. Moreover, the growing amount of Reserve Fund can positively benefit the fund itself by diversification and higher leverage capability. On the contrary, unless the revenue of the fund keeps constant growing, the investors’ nominal yield of return might decrease year by year, which will result in inefficiency in the usage of investment capital. For the Reserve Funds design, from the view of investors’ preference points, we find that the revenue allotment or issued Finite Life REITs could be substituted. On the other hand, from the view of developers’ points, they may regard it as a CMBS rather than REITs. If the government can abstemiously open financing limits of REITs, we can refer as company、SPC or SPT types of USA or Japan to substitute for the Reserve Funds design. The stock market of the real estate is the financial commodities will be more flexible to input the development of the real estate. The study of research paper is to form a complete set of REITs mechanism for the superficies on land of property which can be contributed for the government and industry of the real estate.

開發型不動產證券化制度，定義上係以未開發完成之不動產之權利，透過特殊目的機構，在破產隔離之法律關係下，加以小口化、規格化，並發行有價證券表彰該權利且對外募集或私募有價證券之行為。在我國法規範之下，制度上則可包括「不動產投資信託基金投資於開發型不動產」以及「不動產資產信託以開發型不動產作為信託財產私募有價證券」二種型態。證券化對於不動產之開發而言，係一相當有利之融資管道，且同時亦提供了小額投資人投資大型不動產開發案共享獲利之機會。一般均認為開發型不動產係對於證券化需求最大之標的，然而，因開發性不動產本質上具有較已開發不動產更高之風險，故學說、實務及立法上之討論亦有眾多見解主張對於開發型不動產之證券化應予禁止或限制。 我國不動產證券化條例於民國92年公布施行時，對於開發型不動產納入規範係採所謂「分階段立法」之模式，而在民國98年1月6日始由立法院三讀通過不動產證券化條例之修正案，正式將開發型不動產納入我國不動產證券化之法制，惟現行法基於道德危險之防止、風險控管與投資人保護等考量，對於開發型不動產之證券化仍設有多數禁止或限制規範。然而，本文認為風險控管與投資人保護之並非不動產證券化制度唯一或絕對之考量；並且，制度上之限制或禁止應屬投資人保護之最後手段，若尚可透過主管機關之有效監理降低投資風險並保障投資人時，仍應儘量朝「興利同時防弊」之方向運作，不應過度限制該制度之適用範圍，否則反而將使制度之立法目的無法達成。 綜上所述，本文嘗試從開發型不動產證券化之本質、特性與優缺點出發，參酌國外相關立法例，並考量我國民情與資本市場之特色後，分析提出我國開發型不動產證券化制度之走向，主張應修法開放募集之不動產投 資信託基金得投資於一般開發型不動產。另外，針對都市更新及BOT等開發案適用不動產證券化條例之議題，本研究採取否定見解，認為應於各該法律另行立法規範此種特別法上之開發型不動產證券化，而不應以不動產證券化條例規範之。故本研究尚針對現行不動產證券化條例、都市更新條例、促進民間參與公共建設法等法律規範提出修正建議。期能提供開發型不動產證券化制度將來修法及運作上之參考。 / The “development-oriented real estate securitization” could be defined as an arrangement that subdivides and standardizes the right of real estate which is undeveloped or under development, into separate shares through a special purpose vehicle and the bankruptcy-remoteness structure, and the public offering or private placement of the real estate securities representing ownership of such shares. Under the Real Estate Securitization Act of Taiwan, R.O.C. (the “Act”), so called development-oriented real estate securitization could also be construed as either 1) fund investment of REIT into real estate(s) under development, or 2) entrusting real estate(s) under development or to be developed to a REAT. Securitization is a favorable way to finance the development project, also it provides opportunities for investors with limited fund to invest in and profit from the same. Generally, development projects have the strongest needs for securitization financing. However, due to the risks accompanied with development, there are opinions from researchers and legislators for the restriction of their securitization. Upon the Act’s promulgation in 2003, the Legislative Yuan also resolved the guidelines for future amendment that the real estate under development or to be developed shall be included upon the maturity of real estate securitization operation. However, due to legislators’ concerns on moral hazard, risk control and investor protection, the amendment promulgated in 2009 formally adapting the development-oriented real estate securitization was still quite restricted. It is held by this thesis that risk control and investor protection are not the only or supreme purposes of the Act. Meanwhile, the restriction shall be deemed the last resort of investor protection, it is to say, if the monitoring and supervision of competent authority is operable, we shall use them to protect investors instead of legislative restriction. Or some objectives of the Act would be therefore hindered. Based on the analysis of the nature, advantages, disadvantages, comparative law study of development-oriented real estate securitization, and also referring to the customs and capital market structure of Taiwan, this thesis has provided some thoughts and suggestions for other researchers and legislators’ reference. Firstly, it is held that the restriction on publicly offered REIT’s investment in development project shall be removed. Also, the urban renewal and BOT project shall not be applicable under the Act as which shall be exceptional types respectively legislated in Urban Renewal Act and the Law for Promotion of Private Participation in Infrastructure Projects. It is expected that the issues, thoughts and opinions raised or provided by this thesis could encourage further discussions toward the subject to ensure the sound and stable development of real estate securitization in Taiwan.

本文以2003到2006年美國上市之不動產投資信託（REITs）的資產稅賦遞延交換做研究，並用資產出售交易作為比較，觀察稅賦遞延交換對股票報酬和股利的影響，研究結果發現稅賦遞延交換對於股票報酬有負的宣告效果，然而出售資產的交易有正的且顯著的宣告效果，由於美國REITs基於稅法規定，作為免稅體，每年要以股利的形式分配百分之九十的盈餘給股東，稅賦遞延交換並不能像資產出售交易一樣帶來現金流入，因此對於未來股東的股利所得有所影響，股東對於股票報酬沒有正向的反應，但是股東會考慮稅賦遞延交換會帶來資產重配置的效率，再加上REITs通常會支付比規定還要多的股利，因此稅賦遞延交換的對於股票報酬的負影響會因此而減弱，進一步針對交易方式還有REITs股利分配進行研究，研究的結果支持稅賦遞延交換後的股利比起直接出售交易後所發放的股利還要少。本文除了研究股東對於交易宣告的反應之外，也綜觀不同資產交易方式的現金流量和REITs股利的關連性，藉此瞭解影響REITs選擇交易方式的內涵因素，以及對股票報酬和股利的影響。 / This research examines the tax deferred exchanges made by public U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) over 2003-2006 as well as the transactions of sell-off. The purpose of this study attempts to explore the effects of tax deferred exchange on stock returns and dividend distribution. Result of this study shows that announcement effect of tax deferred exchange is negative in stock value. On the contrary, the relationship between sell-offs and stock value is significantly positive. The reason to explain the difference on announcement effect between two types of property transaction is the specific taxable earning distribution restriction on REITs. U.S REITs have to pay out 90 % of taxable earnings in the form of dividends to their shareholders to exempt from tax. As a result, tax deferred exchange doesn’t bring cash inflow contributing to dividend increase and then shareholders react a lower stock return on tax deferred exchange than on sell-offs. However, the negative effect is weakened by the efficiency of asset reallocation and the regular dividend distribution over tax law restriction. In the analysis of dividend payment, the result of dividend examination supports the hypothesis that tax deferred exchange without cash inflow make dividend fewer than sell-offs. This study may be of importance in explaining the reaction of shareholders on tax deferred exchange of REITs’ property, as well as in providing shareholders with a better understanding of the relationship between cash flow and dividend distribution in order to clarify the cause that affect REITs to utilize different types of transaction and the factors that affect stock return and dividend.

台灣不動產投資信託（T-REITs）自2005年發行至今已逾六年，然其市場表現仍不如發行之初所預期。過去國內已有許多研究針對T-REITs市場發展進行探討，然而目前就T-REITs與直接不動產投資市場價格表現間之相關研究尚付之闕如。有鑑於此，本研究藉由共整合與Granger因果關係檢定，檢視REITs與直接不動產市場間之關聯性，了解台灣與美國之REITs市場表現差異及其影響因素，進而作為改進T-REITs運作機制或架構之參考依據。 實證結果發現，美國之REITs與直接不動產市場之間存在共整合關係。此結果表示，長期而言，這兩者可能具有相似之風險分散效益。此外，透過Granger因果關係檢定發現REITs領先於直接不動產，乃因前者市場較具效率。另一方面，台灣之REITs與直接不動產市場之間則不具有共整合以及領先或落後關係，然直接不動產當期價格仍會受到本身與REITs之前期價格影響。 本研究進一步分析台、美兩國實證結果之差異原因如下：資料的樣本期間、REITs市場規模、存在於T-REITs市場之集中性風險以及潛在的代理問題。其中，針對T-REITs潛在代理問題，本研究藉由分析股票與T-REIT報酬率之波動性，發現T-REIT之不動產管理機構若與母集團相關者，則其市場表現較差。因此，我們得出T-REITs市場發展主要是受限於代理問題之結論。本研究成果不僅有助於改善T-REITs市場效率，亦可提供學術與實務之參考。 / The mechanism of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Taiwan (or T-REITs) was launched in 2005, however, T-REITs market did not perform as expected. What caused the limited development of T-REITs market? Current literature on the performance between T-REITs and direct real estate investment is limited. Through the cointegration and Granger causality tests, the purpose of this study is hence to explore the short-term and long-term dynamics between REITs and direct real estate markets in the U.S. and Taiwan, respectively. This study presents evidence of the cointegration relationship between REITs and direct real estate in the U.S. It implies that the diversification properties of these two assets are likely to be similar over the long horizon. According to the Granger causality test, REITs leads direct real estate due to the market information efficiency. These findings are consistent with those of previous studies. On the other hand, we find no cointegration and lead-lag relation between T-REITs and commercial real estate. Moreover, the current commercial transaction price is affected by both its and T-REIT previous price. By comparing the difference between the results of these two countries, there are several possible explanations for the different results between the U.S. and Taiwan, including difference in sample period, market capitalization, concentrated risk, and most importantly, the potential agency problem existing in T-REITs market. Finally, the underperformance of parent-related management T-REIT is verified through the volatilities of stock and T-REIT returns. Therefore, we conclude that the limited development of T-REITs is caused by the agency problem in REITs market. Results of this study may provide T-REITs market for improving its efficiency, as well as for the reference for both academics and real practices.