1997年爆發亞洲金融風暴，隔年（1998年）起公司發生財務危機事件層出不窮，1998年至2005年間最為嚴重；2007年全球金融海嘯至今，投資人擔心買到地雷股，對於投資股票市場仍採觀望態度。在經過層層把關的財報背後究竟隱藏多少危機？這些危機難道是不可預測的嗎？其實，公司爆發財務危機並非一夕之間產生的問題，就如同人類的慢性病不是一天造成的，是長期忽略身體健康警訊造成的結果，事出必有因，因此許多學者便開始探究財務危機背後的成因，試圖找出一些指標供投資人作為投資前之考量因素。 本研究主要之目的在於探究財務危機之預測指標，分別探討Beta、公司規模、淨值市價比以及前一年平均報酬（負的動能效果）是否可作為財務危機之預測指標。本研究之樣本公司為1983年至2007年之台灣上市公司，利用Altman提出之Z-score模型將公司區分為危機公司以及正常公司，再將樣本公司依Beta、公司規模、淨值市價比以及前一年平均報酬分別分組，探討這些變數是否可作為財務危機之預測指標。實證結果指出Beta及淨值市價比無法作為財務危機之預測指標，但公司規模及前一年平均報酬（負的動能效果）可以作為財務危機之預測指標。 / With the Asian financial crisis breaking out in 1997, many companies began to suffer financial distress in the following year, and the situations were getting even worse during 1998 and 2005. Faced the new waves of financial tsunami across the world starting from 2007, the investor, therefore, have been adopting a wait-and-see attitudes towards the stock market, fearing of being hit by the “tank stocks”。How many financial problems hidden behind the carefully prepared financial statements? Are they unpredictable? As a matter of fact, just like the human chronic diseases which actually caused by long-term ignorance of health warning, corporate financial distress never happens suddenly. Thus a number of scholars are dedicated to study the reasons for financial problems, attempting to figure out certain indicators capable of being prior reference for investment decision-making. This paper aims to study the predictors of financial distress. Beta, firm size, book-to-market ratio and average monthly prior-year return (negative momentum effect) are to be considered respectively to determine their possibilities of being predictors. The sample companies discussed in this paper are chosen among the listed companies during 1983 and 2007 in Taiwan. They are grouped into two categories of crisis company and normal company by using the Z-score model developed by Altman. Then the sample companies are divided in terms of Beta, firm size, book-to-market ratio and average monthly prior-year return so as to trace these variables’ likelihood to predict bankruptcy. It eventually turns out that firm size and average monthly prior-year return could serve as predictors of financial distress, other than Beta and book-to-market ratio.

本研究主要是以「外匯報酬三因子模型」為基礎，故先檢視在本樣本期間內(1985/2至2016/10) ，以雙分類法將37國主流貨幣分為9個投組後，外匯超額報酬解釋力，是否會因加入動能策略因子形成之三因子模型，而較原本兩因子模型(市場因子、利差策略因子)來的強？最終測得三因子模型在判斷係數及殘差等適切度表現較佳。 接著利用逐步迴歸分析法(限制所有自變數均須於90%信心水準內顯著)嘗試尋找獲利成因，主要挑選出不同面向之11種經濟成因因子(股價指數波動、投機活動、流動性、貨幣波動、落後短期利率、落後股利率、落後期限利差、落後違約利差、)落後避險基金套利資本、工業生產量及通膨率因子)來檢測可否解釋三因子模型中獲取報酬之利差、動能策略因子，並利用Fama-MacBeth兩步驟橫斷面迴歸法評估模型市場定價能力。結果發現定價能力均顯著，而利差交易策略之成因為股價指數波動因子(△EVOL)，因其可能連動匯率波動而呈現負相關；動能交易策略成因則為股價指數波動因子(△EVOL)及落後期限利差因子(△LTS)，主要因動能交易主要來自於市場資訊反應不完全，前者成因因子提供更大的動量執行交易策略、後者則因投資人在不同景氣循環下而有不同的投資反應，如景氣擴張的過度自信與樂觀、景氣衰退下產生行為財務領域中的處置效果，使兩成因與動能策略因子呈現正相關。 / This paper is based on the model of three-factors foreign exchange returns. So we test whether three-factors FX model which adds the factor of momentum can have stronger ability to explain currency excess return than two-factors FX model in the sampling period of February 1985 to October 2016. And the 37 kinds of currency are sorted by double sort method and become 9 portfolios. Finally, no matter coefficient of determination or residual error, three-factors FX model performs well. Further, we use stepwise LS regression (independent variable should have statistical significance in 90% confidence interval) to find which factor we choose can cause carry and momentum strategy profit in three-factors FX model. Next, using Fama-MacBeth two-step regression to estimate the asset pricing ability. The results represent that all contribution factors which get from stepwise LS method are significant. Carry trade strategy and △EVOL are negative correlation, because volatility of stock index will influence volatility of FX. And there have the positive correlation between momentum trade strategy and two factors(△EVOL and △LTS). Just because the profit from momentum strategy comes from the incomplete reaction of market information and △EVOL give more motive force. Besides, there have different investment reactions in diverse business cycle. Investors are over confident and optimistic during the period of recession and have disposition effect during the period of boom.

全球化的移民浪潮湧現，各國紛紛透過放鬆移民限制吸引白領移民前往投資和長期居住，展開對擁有資金和技術的白領移民之跨國爭奪，而活躍於全球市場的台商即為其中之一。另外在台商研究之中，從經濟面向研究者眾多，但台商的跨國生活與社會形態目前仍較少有學者關注，而對於台商為經營跨國生活的身份選擇考量，相關研究仍屬有限。有鑒於此，作者乃以上海市台商為研究案例，從跨國主義的移民研究所提出的核心分析概念「跨國社會場域」出發，整理傳統移民研究中的人員遷移因素，歸納出四種流動能力的要素，並結合公民身份理論，說明台商的流動能力如何影響其在移居國的身份選擇考量。具體而言，根據作者初步調查發現，由個人能力、跨國網絡、全球觀所構成的流動能力，在穿越國家所設下的跨界障礙後，能夠持續形成跨國社會場域，而台商為了要能夠維持其所賴以為生的跨國社會場域，來加以考量是否要選擇中國大陸的成員身份或者是公民身份。如果台商的個人能力較弱、跨國網絡缺乏、經濟發展為主的全球觀，較傾向於會考慮選擇中國大陸的成員身份或者是公民身份來強化既有的跨國社會場域經營；反之則否。

本研究根據行為財務學中反應不足的理論針對台灣上市股票進行動能策略的研究。首先根據台股1992到2005年之上市股票為樣本進行單純動能策略研究，發現台股具有中期及長期動能現象(長期在此定義為持有期三年)，接著以Fama and French 三因子模型進行風險調整，結果發現動能策略具有顯著的可行性，其報酬不受三因子調整而損失。並再加入公司特徵變數，發現大規模公司具有較大之動能效果，且低帳面市值比公司也具較大之動能效果，而大型股具有較大的動能效果與一般認知的反應不足理論不符，而由後續之研究針對規模及帳面市值比做相關分析發現兩者間具有高度的負相關，因此大型股子樣本與低帳面市值比子樣本可能具高度的雷同，因此大型股的動能策略報酬較高，其實可能反應的是成長股所具有的反應不足現象。 接著根據單純動能表現結果，結合前期兩期表現為條件，組合成中長期動能策略之構想。結果發現，中長期動能策略在大型股與成長股此兩個子樣本集中有較高的可行性。由於中長期動能策略的基礎是建立在運用兩股單純動能策略的力量，因此單純動能策略的顯著性是中長期動能策略能否成功的重要關鍵，也因此由實證結果發現，在不同的子樣本集中，受到其單純動能策略顯著性強弱的影響，使得中長期動能策略的報酬顯著性受到影響，其中尤以低帳面市值比（成長股）之中長期動能策略動能效果最為顯著。

本文試圖為當前現實主義中，國際政治理論發展的問題與瓶頸，作一概略的檢視、提出可能的倡議，並進行實證研究加以檢驗。本文發現攻勢與守勢現實主義之爭，是理論發展上不必要的誤會，現實主義內的理論爭議，其實仍是分析層次的問題：單元層級的解釋混亂繁瑣而難以驗證，但體系層級基於權力分配結構的解釋，卻也不盡圓滿。因此，本文嘗試在現實主義的物質能力傳統中，對體系穩定的變動提出「體系穩定的互動解釋」與「體系穩定的結構解釋」之新嘗試，以求在名稱上貼近解釋倡議的實質內容，跳脫過去攻勢、守勢現實主義理論名稱劃分的漩渦，並作為未來建立國際政治理論的可能選擇。 本文指出，互動能力的概念，不僅是新的解釋來源，也是界定體系範疇的前提，未來的國際政治理論應利用攻守平衡的解釋邏輯，在結構之外的互動能力解釋來源中，開發科技與地理等兩項解釋變數；並發掘結構解釋來源中，絕對的權力分配作解釋變數，再分別從此導出推論；而有關穩定的意涵，也應從戰爭的避免，擴大為對和平的威脅。本文的實證研究範圍訂在一六四八年至今的歐洲乃至全球體系，本文將先分別呈現各項解釋變數在各個時代的變化，以及依據推論所應出現的結果，再對照實際上體系穩定的變異狀態，以檢驗各項推論。整體而言，本文所進行的實證研究大致上是獲得了相當的正面結果。 / The purposes of this thesis are: examining the current obstructions in Realist theory of international politics, proposing alternatives, and conducting empirical studies. The thesis finds that, the debates between Offensive and Defensive Realism are unnecessary. The level of analysis problem is still crucial: unit level explanations are complex and hard to test, but system level explanations base on the structure of relative power distribution are not satisfactory either. Thus, to get rid of the offensive and defensive labeling, the thesis proposes two alternatives within the Realist material tradition: “interaction” and “structure” explanations on the stability of the international system. The thesis argues that, interaction capacity is both a source of explanation and the precondition of a system. In the future, the theory of international politics should take offense-defense balance as logic of explanation to explore technology, geography, and absolute power distribution as independent variables. In addition, the concept of stability as a dependent variable should also be expanded. Stability is not merely the avoidance of war, but the threat to peace. The scope of the qualitative empirical studies are European and global international systems from 1648 to present. In general, the thesis finds rather positive results to support the interaction and structure explanations.

本文以敘事研究的方式，透過深入訪談，探討一位台灣語言學習者的自主動能（learner agency）與其學習環境之互動。經由敘事訪談（narrative interview）、開放式訪談、半結構訪談以及分析受訪者社群網站發表之文章，本論文意圖呈現台灣語言學習者在不同學習環境中如何表現自主動能。 本研究以受訪者Erin出國留學為分界，共三個階段：第一階段為受訪者出國前（2014/08/25），以敘事訪談（narrative interview）的方式，Erin完整呈現自我對英語的認知與語言學習歷程之掙扎。第二階段為Erin出國以後，藉由開放式與半結構訪談，描繪出Erin在國外求學的經驗，並更深刻探討過去的語言學習歷程。第三階段為Erin回國後(2015/09/17)，再次以敘事訪談的方式，Erin反思英國求學的經驗以及英語在其人生中扮演的角色。 本研究以vam Lier所提之自主動能的三個特色為分析框架，並推衍出兩項申明：其一，台灣英語學習者在正式的語言學習環境中面臨許多挑戰，但學習者仍有表現自主動能的空間，表現方式包括逃避或拒絕學習；其二，學習者若能沈浸於語言習得的環境（foreign language acquisition environments），極有可能脫離正式語言學習環境的框架而成為一個不同於以往的自己。本研究檢視學習者在不同的學習環境中如何展現自主動能，筆者期望研究結果可提供語言教師看待語言學習者一個新視角。 / Drawing on the concept of learner agency, a narrative inquiry was conducted in order to achieve an in-depth, qualitative understanding of the interplay between a Taiwanese learner's exert of agency and various contexts. The study was developed in three phases, and multiple number of interviews were the main instrument for data collection. The first interview was conducted in August, 2014, before the participant, Erin, headed for England to pursue a Master's degree. The following interviews documented her life experiences abroad and further explored her past language learning history. The final interview was conducted in September, 2015 after she came back to Taiwan, in which she reflected on her overall study abroad experiences and the role of English in her life. The findings delineated Erin's English learning story and her agency domestically and internationally. van Lier's proposal of core features of learner agency was used as the analytic framework to discuss Erin's story, and later two assertions were derived from the discussion: (1) Being an EFL learner in the Taiwanese formal educational context may involve many challenges, but the learner still has room to exercise his or her agency-even though this could mean avoiding or rejecting learning, and (2) Fully engaged in a foreign language environment, the learner is likely to break away from the limitations of formal English learning system. The study delineates a close examination on how the language learner interacted with various contexts and demonstrates several considerations TESOL practitioners can take. Based on the findings and the discussion, pedagogical implications as well as suggestions for future research are also provided at the end of the thesis.

大型股過去一直被認為平均報酬率低於小型股，但如果從個股來看，不少大型股的績效並不會比指數差。考慮到一般非專業投資人在投資股票時，選擇大型股還是比小型股容易，本論文試圖建構一套在實務上較可行的大型個股選股策略—選擇市值第二大的股票，並定期調整個股。我們以美股標準普爾500指數中前兩大市值的股票，分為兩種投資組合做比較，結果發現，市值最大的股票不容易創造超額報酬，市值第二大的股票，反而締造極佳的超額報酬，此現象在過去3年、5年、10年，尤其較過去20年更為明顯。原因在於市值排名第二的股票，多半屬於排名仍在持續上升的成長股，這些個股基本面尚未到達頂點，故股價還會反應一段時間的基本面利多，採取類似動能策略(Momentum Strategy)的方法，報酬率容易超越指數；市值最大者則因為基本面普遍伴隨市值排名已經到頂，加上投資人對於排名第一的股票，多半易產生定錨效應(Anchoring Effect)，即認為股價可能已經反應其該有的價值，較難創造超額報酬，傾向賣出。故同樣投資大型股，選擇市值第二名的股票會優於第一名。 / According to The Size Effect Theory, small cap securities generally generate greater returns than those of large cap companies. However, this trend has involved into the difficulties of stock picking due to the large number of small caps. In this paper I propose a strategy against the size effect theory, “Second is Better”, to pick the second largest market value security as the single stock investment. I examine the performances of the No.1 and the No.2 largest market cap stocks in the S&P500 and apply a 6-month rebalance to construct two different portfolios, which is similar to the concept of Momentum Strategy that buy the past winners and sell the past losers. I find the No.2 stock outperforms than No.1 stock and generate amazing excess returns in the near mid-to-long-term periods. Because No.1 stocks are more likely to experience Momentum Crash than No.2 stocks due to investor’s anchoring bias as they believe the No.1 stock might have been peaked. No.2 stocks are usually in the growing stages that many investors believe the 2nd largest caps still yet to peak during market value expansion.