冷戰後，全球地緣政治發生了兩個重要變化，一是印度洋成為世界海權的「心臟」，二是中國和印度崛起為歐亞大陸上新的地緣權勢中心。由此，美、中、印三國的安全戰略都聚焦印度洋，在地緣政治視角下，圍繞印度洋海權之爭，三國在印度洋極力締造均勢，並為自己謀求最大的戰略利益。 近幾年美國才赫然發現，一直被忽視的印度其實是南亞安定的基石。不但是全球最大民主國，更是中東、中亞、南亞間的樞紐，一能替民主世界穩住這塊戰略板塊，二能攔阻回教基本教義及恐怖主義。尤其中共崛起態勢森然，印度既能用來抗衡中共，又沒有真把美國比下去的實力或野心，是美國最合適的戰略夥伴？所以美國決心要與印度建立結盟關係，這將使南亞在未來數十年間的合縱連橫關係趨於複雜。 中共為保障經濟發展和能源運輸安全，為了突破「麻六甲」海峽，只有直面印度洋才能真正達到長期的戰略目的。21世纪的中共大戰略必須依托大陸，面向海洋，一出太平洋，二出印度洋。但對於外人把手伸進亞洲次大陸周圍，難免要讓印度神經緊繃。中共正在改變此前向巴基斯坦一邊倒的南亞戰略，轉而採取一種同樣重視對印關係的平衡外交。 美日防務指針和印度的印度洋戰略在威脅中共經濟發展方面不謀而合，客觀上已形成左右中共對外經濟命脈、制約中共海洋經濟發展的力量。無論是主觀願望，還是客觀現實，印度洋戰略因素的發展及其互動，是中共未來安全穩定不可忽視的因素。 關鍵詞：印度洋、地緣政治、能源、安全、麻六甲 / After cold war, global geopolitics has had two radical changes. First is the Indian Ocean becomes the heart of the world sea power; Second is China and India rise as a new power center of geopolitics in Eurasia. Thus, the security strategy of the America, China and India has focused on the Indian Ocean. From the viewpoint of geopolitics, surrounded by the competition of the sea power in the Indian Ocean, the three nations create a power balance vigorously and seek the best strategic benefit for itself. In recent years, the America has suddenly realized that India which has been ignored all the time turns out to be the cornerstone of the South Asia’s stability. It is not only the biggest commonwealth of the world, but also the key position among Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia. It can stand firm this strategic tectonic plate for the democratic world, and also detain the Islam basic religious doctrine and the terrorism. Especially when China rises the situation to be dense, India is the most appropriate strategy partner to the America, for its use to contend with China and lack with real power and ambition to look down upon the America. Therefore, the America has determined to form an alliance with India, which will make the political relations of South Asia more complicated in the future decades. For the long-term strategic purpose, China can only face directly the India Ocean and breakthrough Malacca to assure economic development and energy transportation security. The main strategy of China in 21st century must rely on mainland and face the ocean. One is the Pacific Ocean, and the other is the Indian Ocean. However, for those bystanders who put their hands around the Asian subcontinent, it would unavoidably cause India in a state of nerves. China is changing the South Asia strategy, which used to favor Pakistan all the way, and turns into take a balanced diplomacy which puts equal emphasis on India. The defense principles of the America and Japan hold the same view with India’s strategy of the Indian Ocean in threatening China’s economic development. Objectively, it has become a power to influence China’s foreign economic lifeline and restrict China’s economic development in ocean. Regardless of the subjective desire or the objective reality, the development and interaction of the strategic factors in the Indian Ocean is a noticeable factor to China’s future security and stability. Key word：the Indian Ocean，Geopolitics, Energy, Security, Malacca

本文採取文獻分析法為主，並以戰略邏輯與國際事務為出發點，從海權觀念意識與國家發展思維上去探討，再以目的、手段、方法之研究途徑切入。 研究重點首重中共在印度洋戰略之思維，從周邊地緣分析切入，瞭解東亞、南亞地區地緣戰略關係；再分析中共國家戰略需求（以能源安全為主），及中共海軍戰略進程，包含劉華清走出第一島鏈的三階段海軍戰略，也就是藍水海軍戰略。 其次為中共印度洋戰略之角色與實踐，主要圍繞中共在印度洋戰略布局的手段，包含政治、經貿及軍事手段之實踐作為，並探討其戰略意涵。 第三，探討中共印度洋戰略之影響與限制因素，分別為區域安全之影響（南亞地區）、大國之影響（美、蘇、日）及對中共自身之影響。可以預見的，印度與美國對中共在印度洋的活動非最敏感，日印美聯合制中之傳聞早已甚囂塵上，各國之反應對中共後續之布局產生哪些具體滯礙與限制。 最後為研究心得，計有中共海軍戰略進程、中共印度洋戰略布局的過程及中共戰略布局印度洋後的影響與限制等三點。 / The research is to adopt Document analysis, use strategic logic and international affairs as a starting point, and discusses the concept of consciousness from the sea power with the thinking of national development, then the purpose, means, methods, ways to cut into the study. First of all, the most important point of this research is focus on the PRC’s strategy thinking in the Indian ocean, from the surrounding geographical metrology to understand East Asia, South Asia’s geo-strategic relationships and then analysis PRC’s national strategic needs (Focus on the energy security), and the PRC’s maritime strategic process, including Liu’s three-stage maritime strategy which is out of the first island chain, also means Blue-water Navy. Secondly, the PRC’s role and practice in the Indian Ocean mainly focus on the strategic layout, including political, economic and military methods, and explore its strategic implications. Third, Regarding the influences and constraints of PRC’s strategy in the Indian Ocean are the regional security (South Asia), the influences of powerful nations (USA, USSR, and Japan) and the influences to itself. It is can be expected, India and U.S.A are very sensitive of all the activities of China in Indian Ocean. The rumor of that Japan, U.S.A and India are standing on the same side to against China had already spread, what will China respond and what kind of difficulty they will face. The last part of this research comprises the process of PRC’s maritime strategy, the strategic layout in the Indian Ocean and the influences and restrictions after PRC’s strategy in the Indian Ocean.

第一章：係以討論核子時代，蘇聯如何利用海權，以實現戰略嚇阻，有限戰爭，商業 擴張，以及國家威望四項國家利益目標為重點。 第二章：就蘇聯對印度洋政治、經濟、軍事與文化環境之理解，試圖探討蘇聯在印度 洋積極從事海權擴張的動機。 第三章：以討論蘇聯在印度洋海權擴張的特徵為主題，並刀別就蘇聯在印度洋區域的 「友好國家之爭取」、「戰略基地之建立」、「司期艦隊之駐泊」、「海洋貿易之開 拓」、「遠洋漁業之投資」五個子題，加以探討。 第四章，探討印度洋在蘇聯戰略思想中的地位，闡述蘇聯在印度洋的「圍堵中共」與 「海上阻絕」的戰略思想，並論及蘇、印友好合作條約之簽訂及影響。 第五章：專論蘇聯對美國在印度洋建立第西哥力加西亞島基地的反應與抨擊。 第六章：析論「印度洋和和平區域」運動在第三世界、聯合國、與美、蘇強權間的發 起與推動，以圖瞭解該和平區運動成功的機率。 第七章：結論，係就前述各章節的假設、推斷與討論作重點剖析，並大膽蠡測蘇聯印 度洋海權擴張的未來可能發展，以及提出西方國家所應採取的對策。

根據世界銀行的資料顯示，佔全球面積約19%的2500萬平方公里之地球表面，及佔全球一半以上人口的34億人是相對的暴露在一個以上天然災害之威脅下。隨著全球化的來臨，我們居住在一個風險共享的社會中，而在全球環境安全被視為全球公共財的同時，如何在集體行動的邏輯下進行全球危機管理，已成為全球行動者的主要課題。例如如何透過國際合作來對抗SARS，禽流感等危機，皆是當前全球行動者關注的議題。值得注意的是，儘管近二十年來國際社會對於減災所做的承諾與投入的資源日益增加，災害所造成的經濟損失及受到災害影響之人口卻也逐漸上升。面對這些現象，本研究最主要想要探究的研究問題即在於什麼樣的因素影響著全球減災合作。 本研究主要的研究問題，係探求在全球行動者為何要參與減災合作，而此全球減災合作又如何運作的呢？全球減災合作、理性選擇與全球社會資本的分析架構將被運用。從理論上粹取的因素，例如風險意識、能力素養、偏好、制度限制、資訊、可信的承諾與信任等，被用來分析行動者如何決定參與合作，以及此合作如何運作。鑑於2004年印度洋海嘯所造成的重大傷亡以及後續國際社會對救災及減災的承諾，本研究將以印度洋海嘯預警系統的個案為例，並透過在4個國家共計22人次對參與此系統的國際行動者之訪談資料，以及對參與印度洋海嘯預警系統之人員發放共計591份問卷進行調查及分析，回收問卷目前共計61份，然進行論文分析時為59份。換言之，實際上的回收率為10.66%，而本研究用以分析之問卷回收率為10.32%。本研究最主要的發現為風險意識及能力素養的提升，結合理性選擇與社會資本的不同因素作用下，將對全球減災合作的結果有正面的影響。最後，本研究也對未來國際減災合作提出相關之建議。 / Writing on the issue of global environmental security, the World Bank has noted that approximately “25 million square kilometers (about 19 percent of the Earth’s land area) and 3.4 billion people (more than half of the world’s population) are relatively highly exposed to at least one hazard.” With the coming of the globalization era, we .also live in a shared risk society. Since global environmental security is seen as a global public good, how to act for global crisis management under the logic of collective action has become a primary subject for global actors. Coping with the crises of SARS or Bird Flu through international cooperation has become a significant issue for these global actors. One of the main dilemmas of international cooperation for disaster reduction is the reconciliation of different individual actions. Interestingly, in spite of two decades efforts of international cooperation, the amount of damage caused by natural disasters and the total number if people affected have gradually increased since the 1960s. This research focuses on two questions in the present research: why do global actors cooperate in disaster reduction, and how does this cooperation operate? The frameworks of international cooperation in disaster reduction, rational choice and global social capital are employed here, to explore the issue of international cooperation. Several factors, such as awareness of risk, capacity, preferences, institutional constraints, information, credible commitment, and trust, are used to examine how an actor engages in decision-making and how cooperation occurs. Because of the tremendous damage that resulted from the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 and the engagement of the global society in disaster recovery and reduction, the above issues will be explored through a case study of the development of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS). Twenty-two interviews were conducted in four countries and these constitute the qualitative data for this analysis. 591 questionnaires also have been sent to the participants in the IOTWS to collect the quantitative data. I analyzed the quantitative data from 59 returned questionnaires (10.32% returning rate) and the qualitative data from 22 interviewees in four countries. These analyses resulted in several suggestions to facilitate international cooperation for disaster reduction.