台灣由於特殊的地理位置，所以地震、颱風等巨災所造成之損失時有所聞。這些巨災除造成交通、農業等經濟損失，更造成人員傷亡、房屋倒塌，也在每個人心中都刻畫難以抹滅的傷痛。為了因應這些巨災帶來的損失，台灣政府撥出許多補助費用予死傷及失蹤人民或其家屬，也提供某些房屋損失的補助。巨災不只危害個人，也同樣衝擊政府財政。 本文以台灣的地震風險為研究對象，並將地震損失劃分為經濟損失與財政損失。經濟損失泛指因地震所造成之一切直接損失，財政損失係指政府因災後所需之賑災與重建經費。因此本文不僅考慮地震所帶來的直接損失，同時也涵蓋政府對於災後的各項補助措施，以完整描述地震全面性的影響範圍。除描述地震整體影響外，本文另設計三種政府預算保險（比例式、自負額、給付最高額度與自負額並行等）作為風險管理機制。模擬說明有無風險管理機制輔助之下對地震損失所帶來之影響及其差異，可從中分析此保險的成本和效益。 本文主要使用國家地震工程研究中心提供之一般建築物損失資料表，輔以中央政府各主管機關對於其下轄業務範圍內之損失統計年報，從中取得因地震所造成之損失統計資料，例如傷亡與失蹤人數、房屋倒塌數、交通損失以及農業損失等，來建立損失模型。損失模型之建立係以模擬出之一般建築物損失為基礎，用迴歸分析評估其與其他損失之相關性，再建立其他損失模型。 本文之分析說明政府若能落實巨災風險管理，將產生極大的利益，在減少社會經濟損失方面尤為顯著。巨災風險管理是正面且必要之事，無論是住宅地震保險基金或政府預算保險，依初始規劃角度來看，政府皆扮演風險管理者的角色。 / Taiwan is usually hit and hurt by some natural catastrophes several times in a year due to its special location. Natural catastrophes brought not only losses of personal properties, agricultural products, and infrastructures but also casualties that brought painful, lasting feelings. In order to deal with the losses caused by natural catastrophes, Taiwan government released significant amount of consolation money for the dead, missing, and injured people. The government also compensate for some house losses. Catastrophes affect not only the private sector economy but also the public finance. This paper focuses on the impacts of the earthquake risk on economic losses and public finance losses of Taiwan. The economic losses include all reported losses while the public finance losses reflect the expenses paid for the post-disaster need, including disaster relief and reconstruction. Considering both the economic losses and public finance losses give us a better-informed picture about the consequences of natural catastrophes. After establishing the models for various types of losses, we analyze how government budget insurances can mitigate the natural catastrophe risks. We employ simulations to display the differences in the loss distributions with and without the insurance. The costs and benefits of the insurance can then be analyzed. Our model of the earthquake risk is based upon the scenario output generated by a model of the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering of Taiwan. We coupled the scenarios and official statistics on the earthquake losses to construct the building loss model. The models for other types of losses are then established using regression analyses. The above analyses demonstrate how the risk management on natural catastrophes taken by the government can benefit Taiwan. The benefits on the economic losses of the society are particularly apparent. Catastrophe risk management is positive and necessary. The Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund and government budget insurance are the measures for the risk manager - the government.

自從民國八十八年政府採購法實施之後，依照該法第九十三條規定：「各機關得就具有共通需求特性之財物或勞務，與廠商簽訂共同供應契約。」我國政府部門於焉開始推行共同供應契約此一採購制度。依據經濟學的相關理論與採購實務的經驗，該採購制度具有集中各政府機關共通需求的特性，可以擴大採購的規模，俾以量制價，降低政府的採購成本；此外，該採購制度也具有減少政府重複辦理相同標的之採購作業的功能，可以節省人力，降低行政成本。 　　本研究係利用文獻探討、專家訪談與問卷調查諸研究方法，針對我國共同供應契約採購制度實施以後的情況（例如共同供應契約產品的供應價格是否低廉等）做一調查與研究，藉以驗證此一採購制度確實具有降低採購成本與行政成本的功能，可以減少政府財政支出；此外，本研究亦針對此一採購制度自實施以後所產生的問題進行探討並提出建議，冀做為主管機關修改政策與執行機關實際作業之參考。 / Since the Government Procurement Law (abbreviated as “GPL” hereinafter) entered into effect in 1999, the Republic of China endeavors herself to implement a procurement system named “Inter-entity Supply Contract” (referred to as “the system” hereinafter) in accordance with the Article 93 of GPL. Based on relevant theories of the Economics and experience of procurement practice, the system should provide an advantage in reducing the government procurement cost by collecting the amount of common needs of different entities and in reducing the government administration cost by avoiding procuring same objectives repeatedly. 　　By means of reviewing literature, interviewing experts and questionnaire, this thesis aims at evaluating the actual performance of the system, such as whether the prices of the supplies are advantageous, and verifying that the system indeed has a effect in reducing government procurement and administration costs. Furthermore, this thesis also explores the problems emerged due to the implementation of the system and offers some practical solutions in eliminating these problems. The suggested solutions are in a hope to be referred to by the GPL Responsible Entity during amending policies and by the conducting entities during operation.

本研究首先建構一個無窮交替的兩期疊代模型，說明當經濟體系的年輕人口面臨流動性偏好之衝擊時，金融中介機構(銀行)可藉由其資產配置的功能，來分散年輕存款者的流動性風險，並達成極大化代表性個人效用之目的。 另外，當存款者具有不同的風險趨避程度時，本文亦分別考量金融中介機構是否受限於法定存款準備率的情形下，分析中間財貨生產部門不完全競爭程度的改變與各項政府政策變動如何影響其資產配置功能，並透過該管道來影響經濟體系的經濟成長率及名目利率。最後，我們將進一步分析在受限制的法定存款準備率之下，各項參數的變動將如何對社會福利水準產生影響。 / This study will first construct a two-period-lives overlapping generation model, indicating that when the young agents in the economy are facing “ liquidity preference shock”, financial intermediaries (banks) could disperse liquidity risk of young agents by the function of asset allocation, and to reach a purpose of representative individuals’ utility maximization. In addition, when depositors have different degrees of risk aversion, this text also considers the condition whether financial intermediaries binds reserve requirement rate respectively, analyzing how to through the changes of the extent of imperfect competition of the intermediate goods production sector and the government policy affect its function of asset allocation, and the impact on productivity growth rate and nominal interest rate of the economy mainly influenced by this channel. Finally, we will further analyze how to affect the social welfare through changes in the economic parameters under the condition of binding reserve requirement rate.

中國TFT-LCD產業在十五計畫至十一五規劃期間(2001-2010年)，相對於東亞先進者出現產能快速的產能擴張與技術追趕現象。本研究認為：在此現象背後，政府所提供的科技產業政策扮演主要促成因素。 本研究藉由整理中國TFT-LCD產業在2000-2010年間的發展歷程，歸納各時期TFT-LCD產業的發展模式與政府產業關係。本研究發現：中國政府部門持續對TFT-LCD產業所推出優惠政策手段，為促成本土TFT-LCD產業大量投資與技術進步主要因素；與中國政府部門具有產權聯繫的大型TFT-LCD面板廠，為科技產業政策主要執行者與受益者；地方政府基於地方經濟發展需求，以提供基礎建設與股權投資方式，積極執行科技產業政策，與當地投資設廠的TFT-LCD面板廠藉由股權關係進行結盟，同時擔任企業所有者與保護者角色；中國TFT-LCD產業與外資間關係，則從九五計畫時期單純設備購買輸入，至十五計畫時期，轉為與二線外資共同投資設廠與技術開發，至十一五規劃時期，隨一線主要外資獲准直接設廠，與本土企業轉為競合關係。 本研究認為：中國TFT-LCD產業的國家產業關係，主要企業受產業景氣循環制約，須持續進行先進製程設備投資保持經濟規模，因此對政府部門政策優惠與資本挹注維持依賴，因此兩者間在國家與產業關係上，維持一管制/扈從及挹注/接受模式。此一依賴關係，並未因主要企業製程進步與規模擴大而出現改變，反而更形鞏固。

因應資訊科技帶動政府再造的趨勢，國立故宮博物院（以下簡稱故宮）在推行各國家型數位政策的過程中，有許多亮眼的數位化成果，對應過去的傳統形象和經營模式也有很大的改變，然而目前卻鮮少有研究去探討故宮這樣一個傳統機關進行轉型的過程。因此，本研究擬以組織變革為探討的理論基礎，運用質性研究方法，探討近年來故宮的組織變革，以及瞭解資訊科技在故宮變革中的角色，來瞭解故宮近年來何以有這麼多的數位發展成果，以及對故宮造成了哪些影響，綜合故宮近年來的變革發展。 　　本研究藉由深度訪談與次級資料整理，針對研究問題提出下述結論，並提出組織變革理論與實務上的建議。 一、促使故宮變革的趨力可分成組織外部的國家典藏計畫資源的挹注，以及組織內部因應領導者決策、組織法規的修訂以及發展上的侷限，造成故宮必須改變現況的變革需要，並在變革過程中受到資源、組織結構與成員三方面的阻力。 二、資訊科技並非直接促使故宮變革的趨力，但在故宮的變革過程中也扮演了推波助瀾的重要角色。具體而言，資訊科技不只是協助故宮落實變革的工具，也是讓故宮在組織法規上不符需要的問題被關注的契機，更是故宮在發展上的新途徑。 三、資訊科技對故宮的影響，不僅可對應於電子化政府的發展願景，對內部管理、組織結構、組織成員、與民眾的溝通，以及服務流程等方面產生影響，也擴散了故宮的行銷，擴展了故宮的發展範疇。 / Following the trend of applying Information Technology to Reinvent Government, National Palace Museum (NPM) produces remarkable digitalized asset through carrying out National Digital Archives Program. In addition, NPM gets distinct from the previous stereotype and also runs a modified business model; however, the shifting process is rarely explored. This research focuses on the transformation process of the most traditional institution based on Organization Change theory. The author adopts qualitative approach to investigate the organization change of NPM in order to know what the impact on NPM is, what the role Information Technology plays in the evolution and to know why NPM is able to bring in the abundant digital asset, apart from summarizing the recent changes of NPM. 　　The author attains the following conclusions and proposes suggestions on the organization change in both the theoretical and the practical aspects, after conducting in-depth interviews and researching secondary materials. First, the driving force which transforms NPM can be categorized into two kinds. Outside NPM, there is a sustained funding from National Digital Archives Program. Inside NPM, the transformation necessity results from the limitation of the legal regulations, the policies of the leaders and the development confinement. NPM confronts problems from resources scarcity, organization structure and members’ resistance in the evolving process. 　　Second, although Information Technology is not the direct driving force, it plays a critical stimulus factor to the evolution of NPM. Generally speaking, Information Technology, not simply a tool, reveals the problems of out-of-date legal regulations but also an innovative way of development. 　　Third, the lessons of Information Technology impact on NPM can be served as a reference of e-Government vision. It not only influences the internal management, the organization structure, the participant members, the communication with the public and the serving process, but also spreads the marketing and expands the scope of NPM.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration