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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
281

財政幻覺 ─ 行為財政學的觀點 / Fiscal Illusion ─ A Perspective of Behavioral Public Finance

陳皖瑜 Unknown Date (has links)
不論是坊間或專業團體所發布的數據、圖表、民調等資料都可以發現,當台灣地方政府面臨債務餘額逐年增加的同時,地方民眾仍支持政府舉辦大型活動,此即為財政幻覺的具體表徵。本論文研究之動機,便是想探討民眾是否受到政府支出的誘惑,進而支持政府過度發行公債以達成政府過度支出的情形。 文獻回顧的部分,除了介紹財政幻覺基本經濟模型外,還有介紹財政幻覺實證研究結果。接續財政幻覺介紹之後,討論台灣地方政府自有財源不足但民眾仍支持開銷龐大項目的現象。此部分並引入目前台灣地方政府各種大型活動之預算以及活動支出概況數據表格,顯示出台灣地方政府的大型活動開銷金額支龐大。文獻回顧最後,介紹行為財政學與行為經濟學之應用,並利用行為財政學之模型作為此篇論文的理論模型。 經濟模型的部份,討論跨期模型時,把誘惑因素以及利他因素加入至模型中,並求解民眾在第一、二期受到利他與誘惑這兩者之間抗衡的結果。模型推論最後發現,就減少第一期舉債數量來看,單獨只有誘惑因素影響,沒有明顯之效果;但是只有利他因素的影響,效果比同時考慮誘惑、利他因素的結果還要有效。這表示利他因素對於抑制政府舉債數量有一定之影響力。 本論文最後提到研究之限制,為理論模型尚且未能充分反應台灣真實狀況,期許未來學術研究能夠引入台灣的數據資料,為台灣地方政府政策研究貢獻一份心力。 / One of the most notable developments in recent Taiwan’s local public finance is to witness the growing size of debts and the growing popularity among constituency of those governments. To coin the term of fiscal illusion, most conventional literature takes the complexity of the taxation system as the major driving factor. Empirical studies are also surveyed in the thesis to compare to the phenomena in Taiwan. We use the stylized facts of Taiwan’s local spending to justify the use of a behavioral public finance model. Specifically, we develop a simple dynamic model incorporating bequest, debt financing, payroll tax with an unique temptation effect to address fiscal illusion. The findings show that bequest motive dominates the temptation effect in curbing debt financing.
282

財政分權下地方政府醫療衛生支出之影響因素研究——基於大陸省級追蹤資料的實證分析 / The Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Local Government Health Expenditure -- An Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Level Panel Data in China

陳羅煒 Unknown Date (has links)
中國醫療衛生體系中政府擔任著重要的角色,尤其是地方政府。從數據分析中我們發現地方政府的財政醫療衛生支出遠大於中央政府的財政醫療衛生支出,公共醫療衛生服務的主要提供者是地方政府。並且通過對比中國地方政府人均醫療衛生支出水準和醫療衛生支出占財政支出比重,我們發現各省的政府醫療衛生支出水準有明顯差異,因此我們想瞭解是什麼因素造成了這些差異,這些因素的影響效果又如何。 通過考察中國醫療衛生體制的歷史沿革以及回顧之前的研究文獻,我們發現財政分權度、地方政府競爭度、地方政府自有財源、醫療衛生服務價格水準、經濟水準、人口結構、教育程度、城市化水準以及醫療衛生服務供給等是影響地方政府醫療衛生支出水準的重要因素。 本文沿用之前實證文獻的研究方法,使用傳統回歸模型、固定效應模型以及隨機效應模型分析中國大陸2004~2012年省級追蹤資料,並且對同一變數採用不同的指標以檢驗結論的穩健性,得到以下結果: 財政分權度、地方政府競爭度以及地方政府自有財源水平和地方政府醫療衛生支出水平具有正向影響關係,而財政分權、地方政府競爭以及地方政府自有財源的交互作用會造成地方政府醫療衛生支出水準的下降;醫療衛生服務價格水準的提高、地方經濟發展水準的提高以及老齡化程度的提高多會使地方政府的醫療衛生支出水準提高;而省際間的人口流動、居民的受教育水準以及城市化水準的變化對政府醫療衛生支出水準的影響關係不確定;醫療衛生服務的供給增加會降低地方政府醫療衛生支出水準。
283

我國高階主管特別管理制度規劃方向之研究:以對外開放競爭取才為核心之討論 / Research of Senior Executives Administration System in Taiwan– the discussion of opening opportunity to external competitor as a core

謝瀛隆 Unknown Date (has links)
1980年代以來先進國家所進行之政府再造,其外在環境背景因素中,主因是企業部門面對經濟全球化(globalization)競爭壓力,轉為政府層次的國家競爭力,以及資訊及通信技術之急速變遷,衝擊政府運作方式,此一趨勢驅使政府職能因應轉換,也導致政府必須就其組織重新設計或調整並加速改革步伐。經濟合作暨發展組織(Organization for Economic and Development,以下簡稱OECD)會員國為應此趨勢,紛紛建構獨立的高級文官制度以為因應。至於我國除以行政院組織改造為主軸,打造精簡、彈性、有效能的政府外;考試院則提出「建構高階主管特別管理制度」規劃,參採OECD國家建構高級文官制度經驗,希望建立有別於現行一般公務人員之特別管理制度,以系統化延攬及培育推動國家政務主幹之高階常任文官,藉以回應外界之要求。 我高階主管制度應採何種取才途徑,一直是規劃過程中之重點,因以何種取才途徑為設計基礎,影響後續配套措施,諸如俸給、考核、訓練及退離機制等規劃。換言之,取才途徑之選擇,關乎整個特別管理制度之規劃。本研究認為確立對外開放競爭取才之政策目標,始能導引高階主管制度整體規劃方向。至於對外開放競爭取才相關配套如高階主管職務範圍及其外補比例,宜細緻化及彈性化。推動上需漸進並建構合理有效之誘因體系;亦應強化政策溝通及研訂外部人才培育計畫,以爭取高階文官對於政策之認同。未來則應以對外開放競爭取才為前提,重行檢視並研究各議題之妥適性,俾使我國高階主管制度更為妥善可行,更於制度實施後,能提升國家之競爭力。 / Since 1980, government reformed in advanced countries because the external environment background and factors. Due to corporates were facing competitive pressure of economic globalization which turned the competition to the level of government, as well as rapid changes in information and communication technology that impact government’s operation. Hence government functions need to be converted and the structure need to be redesigned or reformed as soon as possible. The member of OECD (Organization for Economic and Development) built an independent senior civil service to respond these trends. In Taiwan, the main target is to redevelop Executive Yuan’s organization as well as create a retrench, flexible, and efficiency government. Furthermore, Examination Yuan planned “Building Senior Executives Administration System” based on OECD member’s experience of senior civil service in past years. The goal was to establish a special administration system other than the current one and to recruit and train senior civil service systemically as well as in response to public concern. Which recruiting method and devise basis should our senior executive service use was always our main concern because different method and measurement will effect stipend, assessment, training, and retirement etc. as planned. In other words, each method we take will result different administration system. It is suggested in the research that setting the goal of opening to external competition in government will lead the scheme for our senior executive service. Supplementary regulations for senior executive service need to be meticulous and flexible for open competition. Reasonable administration system should be built before moving to next step, as well as enhance communication policy and set up a training plan for external talent people to strive for senior civil service system identification. In the future, our government need to be focused on opening competition as a premise, and revise all the issues that might happen; this will result our senior executive service administration system more appropriate and make our country competitive worldwide after implementation.
284

地方政府城市企業化治理—北京上海文創園區之形塑 / Governance in Urban Entrepreneurialism of Local Government-The Construction of Beijing and Shanghai's Cultural Industries Quarters

曾占旭 Unknown Date (has links)
2011年初,中國大陸把“推動文化產業成為國民經濟支柱性產業”列入《國家“十二五”規劃綱要》中,許多城市紛紛制定創意產業發展戰略,並把它作為城市未來的支柱產業進行培育。在地方政府為主導體系下的發展策略,文創產業成為新的獲利支柱,許多文化創意產業園區便如雨後春筍。從許多既有文獻上來看,中國大陸文創產業園區的發展,行動者非常多,但是主要的掌控者依舊在地方政府,本論文將透過城市企業主義的論點為基礎,分析北京、上海四個文化創意產業園區個案,觀察文創園區形塑的參與者與地方政府之間的互動,從地方政府的視角切入,探討地方政府的治理模式與利益分配,並試著歸納中國大陸文化創意產業園區的建構過程與發展模式。
285

公共價值導向的政府資訊公開評估指標建立 / Open Public Sector Information: Establishment of Public-Value Oriented Performance Evaluation Indicators

張凱媛, Chang, Kai Yuan Unknown Date (has links)
政府資訊公開是指政府將所擁有之資訊以各種方式公布或提供人民申請,是保障人民知的權利之基礎和促進民主參與之重要基石,與政府透明、課責和政府信任等公共價值的實踐有緊密連結性。本研究經由文獻回顧及國內外實務觀察,發現目前國內外就政府資訊公開的績效評估並沒有全面的架構,同時,也較缺乏政府資訊公開成效與其影響之間的關聯。因此,本研究主要探討政府資訊公開所連結的公共價值,並嘗試將之融入績效評估指標架構當中,期能建立初步評估架構並分析其政策意涵。   本研究透過文獻回顧瞭解國內外政府資訊公開發展現況與趨勢,整理既有的評估指標和實證研究,發展以公共目標價值為基礎的績效評估架構:包含透明、信任、課責、參與、效能、效率等6個目標公共價值,以及12個公共價值構面和其下的衡量指標。建立架構後,本研究透過層級分析法,彙整學者專家、政府官員,以及公民團體代表三類專家之意見,對架構指標權重排序並進行整體和不同專家類型之比較分析。   整體結果顯示,透明為政府資訊公開評估架構中最重要之層面,而三類專家亦一致認同在透明層面下的政治透明構面,及其下的政策決策過程透明指標為達成透明價值之關鍵作為,其次,較受整體專家重視的還有課責及參與。以絕對重要性來看,整體專家認為最重要的公共價值構面也是政治透明,指標層次則以政策決策過程透明、對政府資訊的信任等為重。除整體結果外,三類專家所認定的權重順序也有所差異:(1)學者專家對課責的權重明顯較其他專家高,(2)政府專家對效率的重要性排序排在第三位,其他專家則認為較不重要,(3)公民專家與其他專家最大的不同是將參與置於首要位置。根據分析結果,本研究建議應強化政策決策過程透明的相關措施以真正落實政治透明、透過穩定輸出正確可靠的資訊來培養公民對政府資訊的信任,並積極提升對課責和參與之重視。 / Information held by government agencies is a valuable national resource, and it should be open to public unless there is required legal protection for sensitive in-formation. The development of open public sector information (OPSI), based on people’s right to know, will enhance public values such as transparency and ac-countability of government, democratic participation, and even social welfare.   This study focuses on the establishment of public-value oriented performance evaluation indicators. To build the objective level and the corresponding indicators of the assessment framework, it investigates the linkage between public value and OPSI by literature review and sorts out the existing indicators related to OPSI. Also, in purpose to refine the applicability of this framework and analyze the order of in-dicators’ importance, it applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP), gathering the mul-tiple-criteria decision-making opinions from 14 experts of Public Administration, Information Management, and E-Government practice, including 6 academics, 4 government officials, and 4 civil groups experts.   The framework shows that transparency, trust, accountability, participation, ef-ficiency and effectiveness are 6 main public values to evaluate the performance of OPSI, with 12 aspects and 12 indicators included in. The overall results show that transparency, trust and participation are more important than the others. And for the absolute importance, political transparency aspect and indicator transparency of policy decision-making process are the most important ones based on integrated opinions. Moreover, three groups of experts show some differences in the order of importance: academics are more concerned with accountability, government offi-cials care more about efficiency, and civil group experts regard participation the most important one. Based on the analysis of AHP results, this study suggests that government should put political transparency into effect, bring up the trust to gov-ernment information, and attach more importance to accountability and participa-tion.
286

國際非政府組織的責信 / The accountability of international nongovernmental organizations

趙紫軒 Unknown Date (has links)
國際非政府組織憑藉著組織的專業與知識、資訊的提供、組織架構的彈性以及多元的網絡,在國際社會中佔有重要的角色。但同時也面臨一些挑戰,例如缺乏合法性、代表性與責信。其中責信問題涵蓋最廣,也最為重要。 責信是國際非政府組織向利害關係者解釋其行為,利害關係者包含政府、捐款者、受益者、組織會員、組織員工、企業以及其他組織,當然更應涵括一般群眾,因為國際非政府組織具有草根性的性質。 國際非政府組織都必須解釋行為,且把解釋的行為的措施發展為一套機制,融入組織的架構之中,以利組織長期貫徹責信;利於利害關係者追蹤與檢視責信。這些措施集結成五種責信機制:資訊公開 、成效評估、擴大參與、自我規範以及社會審核。
287

非政府組織與低度開發國家關係之研究-以馬拉威共和國為例 / The Relationship between NGOs and LDCs- the case of the Republic of Malawi

常國祥 Unknown Date (has links)
非政府組織現今全球性議題上,均扮演著重要的角色,其活動範圍亦遍及全球性、區域性及個別國家之中;目前一般學者對非政府組織的研究多偏重於理論探討,暨其在國際建制的角色與功能;既然非政府組織在善心的動念上是為了更平等的世界,因此研究者在本文研究對象上,決定選擇全球發展最不平等的低度開發國家,並且藉由實際走訪馬拉威共和國的經驗與例證,檢視非政府組織與該國的關係。 本論文首先對非政府組織與低度開發國家做個別的一般性說明,並著重於討論低度開發國家形成原因,進而選擇漠南非洲做為低度開發國家的代表區域;嗣在漠南非洲國家的討論之中,聚焦於馬拉威共和國為個案研究的對象,期藉該國近年的穩定發展,排除政治與內戰之干擾,得到較為獨立的結論。本論文在經過系統性的研究後認為,非政府組織在低度開發國家從事服務遞送與災難救援等類型之活動,成效明顯較一般政府組織卓著,機動性亦強,惟可能導致該等國家之依賴心理,妨礙政府正常職能之建立;其次,非政府組織在低度開發國家中,對高階政治議題的參與,仍有根本性的限制;最後,低度開發國家中,跨國性非政府組織與國內非政府組織所獲資源與具備之能力對比太大,權力分配不均,使國內基層組織能量始終無法有效建立,亦難構建成為合理的組織模型,可能阻礙未來效率之提升。 / Although the activities of the Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) have spread all over the world, most studies still focus on the theory of NGOs or their roles in the international regime. This paper, meanwhile, has targeted to focus on the relation between NGOs and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), especially for the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. By analyzing the case of the Republic of Malawi, this paper has proved that for LDCs, the NGOs have more efficiency in the mission of rescue or deliver service than that in the local government or International Governmental Organizations (IGOs) because of their flexibility. Even NGOs have reached the achievement that is mentioned above, they still have difficulty involving in LDCs’ politics or decision-making process. Meanwhile, the conclusion also shows that LDCs may lie on NGOs’ support too much to develop their own functions as well.
288

中、東歐國家加入歐盟之研究

梁震宇 Unknown Date (has links)
本論文旨在探討2004年5月1日加入歐盟10個國家中的波蘭、捷克、匈牙利、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亞、愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞、立陶宛等8個中、東歐國家。自1989年東歐劇變,中、東歐國家就提出了回歸歐洲的口號,具體而言就是申請加入歐洲聯盟與北大西洋公約組織,並依1993年6月歐盟訂下的「哥本哈根標準」,實施政治經濟改革,從此中、東歐國家就開始踏上了漫長的入盟之旅。 歐洲的整合有其歷史的淵源,除了在政治、經濟及地理上的考量,最重要的還是基於安全上的因素。希望藉由整合謀求歐洲的永久和平,所以進行制度上、理念上的改革與嘗試,從經濟的合作到有關共同外交與安全政策、內政與司法的合作,使歐洲的關係愈來愈緊密的結合,藉由整合理論分析歐盟深化與廣化的進程中,所採取不同的整合概念與內部機制運作的變化;並以歐盟四次擴大經驗的成就與影響,作為研究第五次擴大脈絡之依據。 中、東歐前社會主義國家最廣受世人矚目者,莫過於極權統治的共黨政權,竟然出現和平演變,轉型成為新興民主國家。經過了十五年的改革,各國政局和社會相對穩定,多黨議會體制已基本成型,黨派間的鬥爭雖仍相當激烈,但基本上能按憲政架構所建立的議會民主制度執行,成為共同合法化的政治規則。經濟發展已漸趨好轉,少數國家甚至已超過或接近劇變前的水準。目前,中、東歐各國現在仍處於過渡時期,要完全成為西方所要求的「民主體制」式的國家和市場經濟社會,對大多數國家來說,仍要走相當一段路程。 歐盟抓住冷戰結束後的天賜良機,向中、東歐國家擴張,實現了大歐洲夢想的第一步。就歐盟方面而言,所有成員國都認為整個歐洲的穩定、安全和繁榮是符合自己的利益的,東擴乃是地緣政治和經濟利益雙重選擇的結果。東擴對歐盟而言,既是機遇,也是挑戰;同時,東擴是歐盟穩定周邊局勢的最佳選擇。此次擴大所接納的新成員國與歐盟原成員國間存在著巨大的經濟發展差距,歐盟新、舊成員國間將有面臨一個艱難的磨合時期。同時藉擴大的契機,能找出一個能平衡各方利益的解決方案;而在調整權力結構和提昇機構運行效率方面,如何使機制運作與政策之執行能順遂,都是歐盟當前最重要的課題。另歐盟最後的邊界在何處?可接納成員國的能量範圍?歐洲防務的自主與整合?都是後續值得關注的議題。
289

警察機關巡邏勤務規劃與執行之研究-以新北市政府警察局分駐(派出)所為例 / The study of patrol task planning and enforcement in the police department :an example of police department’s divisions in New Taipei City government

張清峰 Unknown Date (has links)
巡邏勤務是警察最常見的勤務方式之一,長久以來被公認是警察的核心勤務,由於巡邏勤務兼具積極打擊犯罪的主動作為及消極防制的被動作為,更加突顯巡邏勤務的重要與特色。而警察巡邏勤務之規劃及執行方式受到許多因素的影響,如何有效發揮巡邏勤務預期效能的議題,也就值得深究。 本研究以立意抽樣,採質化半結構深入訪談方式,針對實際規劃與執行巡邏勤務之派出所所長與協助派出所所長規劃勤務並參與實際執行巡邏勤務基層員警10人進行訪談,旨在探討巡邏勤務之規劃與運作過程,藉此找出其中所存在的問題,並將結果提供相關單位作為警察巡邏勤務規劃與運作之參考,期能有效發揮預防犯罪及達到維護社會治安之功能。 本研究主要研究結果分述如下: 一、巡邏勤務,警察核心勤務:巡邏勤務24小時綿密規劃,勤務時數約佔每日總時數50%-70%,為警察勤務中核心勤務。 二、工作項目,符合主要目的:巡邏勤務工作置重點於犯罪預防、交通順暢及為民服務,符合巡邏的主要目的。 三、攻勢勤務,具有預防效果:巡邏勤務屬攻勢勤務,具迅速、快速、機動等特性,具有預防犯罪的效果。 四、符合原理,有效預防犯罪:巡邏勤務運作符合迅速、機動、彈性、顯見等4項原理,能有效預防犯罪。 五、巡邏勤務,以深夜勤為主:深夜時段為犯罪活動高峰期,應將巡邏勤務加重於該時段,以符合實際需求。 六、因時因地,使用交通工具:巡邏勤務交通工具應因時因地制宜,彈性運用,發揮巡邏勤務之機動性及顯見性。 七、事故處理,影響巡邏成效:巡邏勤務規劃編排常因事故處理導致巡邏勤務落空情事,影響巡邏預期成效。 八、強化措施,落實巡邏勤務:強化勤務指揮中心功能、落實實施勤前教育及採師徒制編組,以利經驗傳承,落實巡邏勤務作為。 九、巡邏裝備,適時因應添購:巡邏勤務配備裝備應適時因應添購,以維執勤安全,提升巡邏勤務效能。 十、落實盤檢,減少巡邏箱數:巡邏勤務應以加強盤查為主,巡簽巡邏簽章表為輔,以發揮巡邏勤務預期之效能。 十一、巡邏勤務,優點缺點並俱:巡邏勤務可有效產生嚇阻犯罪功能,惟因各項因素,常無法落實執行。 本研究並根據研究發現,提出研究建議: 警察機關應採問題導向巡邏勤務策略,實施因地制宜措施以規劃巡邏勤務,落實盤查作為為主,巡簽巡邏簽章表為輔,因應需求適時添購裝備,強化巡邏勤務精進作為;並落實金融超商業自我防護機制,精簡業務提升警力運用,同時面對問題落實檢討規劃。 / Patrol duty is one of the most common duties for the police officers, which has been generally accepted as their core duty for a long time. Moreover, the patrol duty’s importance and characteristics are more highlighted by its active actions like fighting against crime and its passive actions like prevention and control. However, the policy officers’ planning and executive methods of patrol duty are affected by various factors. Therefore, it deserves deeply exploration about how to achieve the expected effect of patrol duty. Taking the purposive sampling and qualitative semi-structured in-depth interview, this study interviewed 10 persons including a police station chief and some grassroots police officers assisting the chief to plan and carry out patrol duty, with the aim to explore the patrol planning and operation process. In this way, it can find out the existing problems and provide the study results to relevant units as reference of planning and operation for the police officers, expecting to effectively achieve the function of crime prevention and social order and security maintenance. The major study results are illustrated as below: 1.Patrol duty is the core duty for the police officers: the duty is 24-hour planned, and accounts for 50%-70% of the work hours every day, so it is the core duty for the police officers. 2.The work. details conform to the primary purpose: Patrol duty focuses on crime prevention, smooth traffic and public service, which conform to the primary purpose of patrol. 3.Offense duty has the preventive effect: Patrol service belongs to offense duty, which is quick and mobile, and has the effect of crime prevention. 4.It conforms to the basic principles and can prevent crime effectively: Patrol operation conforms to the four principles of quickness, mobility, flexibility and conspicuousness, and can prevent crime effectively. 5.Patrol duty is mainly served at late-night: The late-night is the peak period of crime activity, so the patrol duty should be strengthened during that period to meet the practical demands. 6.Use vehicles based on the specific time and place: The vehicles used for patrol service should be flexible based on the specific time and place, so as to achieve the mobility and conspicuousness of patrol service. 7.Accident handling affects the effect of patrol duty: Patrol planning and scheduling is often delayed or vacated due to accident handling, which further affects the expected effect. 8.Strengthen the measures to carry out the patrol duty: Strengthen the function of the command center, carry out the pre-duty education and adopt senior-junior grouping to facilitate teaching experience and achieving the purpose of patrol duty. 9.Procure the patrol equipments in time: Patrol equipments should be procured in time based on the specific demands, so as to ensure secure duty and improve the patrol efficiency. 10.Carry out question to reduce the number of patrol boxes: The patrol duty should strengthen question primarily, together with patrol duty form signing, so as to achieve the expected patrol effect. 11.Patrol service has both advantages and disadvantages: Patrol duty has the function of effective crime prevention. However, it can’t be carried out due to various factors. Based on the study findings, this study proposes the following suggestions: The police institutions should adopt the problem-oriented patrol strategies and make measures based on the specific conditions for patrol duty planning. It should carry out question primarily, together with patrol duty form signing. Moreover, it should procure equipments in time based on the demands to strengthen the patrol practice. Besides, it should also carry out the self-defense mechanism of finance-over-business and simplify the business to improve the manpower application. At the meanwhile, it should implement review and planning for the problems.
290

應用社會網路連結預測理論於政府官員職務繼任分析 / Applying social network analysis and link prediction for government post succession analysis

沈曜廷, Shen, Yau Ting Unknown Date (has links)
隨著資訊科技的發達,資訊成長的速度日以倍計,對於大量且片斷的資料,社會網路分析(Social Network Analysis)提供我們可能的研究方法。社會網路主要是由節點以及節點彼此間的連結所形成的網路結構,透過社會網路分析和連結預測理論,我們可以從微觀與巨觀的切入角度,來進行龐大資料量的政府人事異動資料庫進行研究分析。本論文研究,將政府人事異動資料庫中的異動記錄建構為人物與職務兩類不同的社會網路結構,並透過社會網路分析以及連結預測,來發掘人物與不同職務之間的相互影響性,並進一步分析在特定職務的實際接任人選上,實際被影響的因素為何。實驗結果呈現本研究所設計出的模型,對於政府人事異動的互動關係在不同角度的觀察上有所幫助,也從中可以發現在實際接任人選上的考量上,歷任人選的歷任職務有相當程度的影響性,並瞭解社會網路分析與連結預測在實際情境應用下的可能性與限制性。 / Information grows up in very fast way with the advancement in information technology. SNA (Social Network Analysis) provides the possible research ways for the large number of fragmentary information. Social network is the network structure which constructed by the links of each nodes in it. Through SNA (Social Network Analysis) and Link Prediction theory, we can investigate government official's succession database with huge amount of data from micro and macro perspectives. The objective of this study is the construction of two different types of person and position social network structures and the exploration of the interaction between the person and position nodes through link prediction theory. We also discover the impact factors for actual appointee of specific position in further analysis. The study result shows the design model helps us to observe the interaction in government official's succession from different perspectives. We found that is great influence of successive positions of successive candidates in consideration of actual appointee.

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