2008年馬英九總統上任後，遵行「先經後政」的兩岸政策方針，積極與中國大陸簽訂了多項協議，但我國民眾對此出現許多疑慮。2013年6月，海基會與海協會於中國大陸上海簽署《海峽兩岸服務貿易協議》，並對外公布兩岸的開放清單，此舉引發我國民眾不滿，認為政府單位未做到與民間充分協調的工作，並憂心將使臺灣在經濟與政治上更依賴中國大陸，造成社會不安，其後，我國於2014年3月，爆發了國內大規模的「太陽花學運」抗爭活動。 近年來，中國大陸已成為臺灣最大的貿易夥伴，但基於臺灣與中國大陸的特殊關係，兩岸間的經貿發展一直是台灣民眾相當關心的問題。本研究的主要目的為，在兩岸經貿互動非常密切與民意優先的今日，了解民眾對於兩岸經貿的認知與立場，試圖了解哪些因素會使民眾對於兩岸經貿的態度改變，並在過往研究的基礎上，洞悉影響民眾兩岸經貿態度的內在及外在因素如何相互作用，使民眾的兩岸經貿認知產生變化，並使用國立政治大學選舉研究中心「線上調查實驗室」於2015年4月，所進行的網路民調資料來分析。 根據前述架構，本研究將內在因素歸類為人口變項、心理認同、經濟考量以及政治考量四個部分；外在因素則藉由當今兩岸經貿交流互動中所遭遇到的問題點作為設計，涵蓋經濟利益、談判過程與安全因素等三部分，並提出政府可實行政策之方向，以條件問句來看民眾在情況下的態度變化。 資料檢測的結果發現，民眾對於各項條件句的接受程度不一，甚至加入條件句後，對於兩岸經貿的態度有轉向負向的情況，顯見不同的背景的民眾，將藉由相異的思考面向來形塑其對於兩岸經貿認知。而其中，安全因素的條件，將最有助於扭轉原先不贊成兩岸經貿的民眾意見。 研究發現，影響民眾對於兩岸經貿態度的變數中，除過去較常討論的內在因素外，外在因素同時具有影響力。臺灣民眾看待兩岸經貿不全然受到感性因素影響，當政府適時的給予政策上的幫助時，民眾仍會改變態度，以理性作為思考。希冀藉由本研究的討論，對於民眾兩岸經貿立場認知有更全面性的了解，並提供實質上的政策意涵。

地方民意代表，以繼續連任為目標，對於選區的經營及選民的個案服務無不全力以赴，做好選區經營選民服務，是再次爭取選民選票支持的重要關鍵；本文以第一屆新北市65位現任議員為研究對象，透過對全體議員的問卷調查和對10位議員的深入訪談，探知他們對於選區經營選民服務的看法和作為，藉以了解地方民意代表如何服務地方服務選民的參考依據。 依問卷填答資料統計顯示，新北市議員平均聘請助理數7.40人，平均設置之服務處數2.16處，每星期選民反應請託案件數平均19.88件，每星期紅白帖平均數29.06張；以每周工作70小時計，花在議會問政25.55小時，選民服務時間39.91小時，自己事業時間4.54小時。議員為民服務最重視的項目依序是：選民個案服務、爭取選區地方建設經費、議會質詢及監督行政機關。各類型選民反應或請託案最多的是糾紛調解，其次是爭取社團、里活動經費補助和地方小型建設建議案。各不同黨籍或新科/連任議員皆盡全力做好選區經營選民服務，所以比較各項數據沒有明顯差異。 深入訪談第一部分訪談選區經營具特色及代表性議員，請議員說明其選區經營選民服務的理念和實際做法，詢問其選區特性、選民結構及選舉競爭，並了解其依個人特質所建立的選舉資源網絡。第二部分訪談市府規劃欲興建殯葬專區之選區議員，做為選區經營案例之研究，了解議員以何管道探知選民反對意向，如何發動選民陳情抗爭，如何維護選區選民權益，及利用此一議題進行選區經營的思維與策略。 / The local elected representatives go to great lengths to manage their electoral districts and to provide the best service for their votes as their main goal is to continue in office, and the key to it is to gain the voters’ support. This study will focus on the case of the 65 councilmen of the first session in New Taipei City. Through a questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews with 10 of the councilmen, their viewpoints and behaviors related to their electoral district management and service are provided as to have reference to understand their ways of provided service. According to the statistical results of the questionnaire survey, the average number of assistant per New Taipei City councilman is 7.40 persons; the average number of service center is 2.16; the average number of cases of the voters for any request per week is 19.88; the average number of red/white envelopes per week is 29.06; they work 70 hours per week, for which 25.55 hours are spent in the parliament, 39.91 hours are dedicated for the voters and 4.54 hours are for their own business. The priority of tasks in importance are in the following order: voters’ cases, seeking for local infrastructure funds, questioning in the parliament, and supervision of the administrative offices. In regard to the type of the voters’ cases, the major issue consists of dispute resolution followed by the seeking of association or neighborhood subsidies and recommendations for minor establishments. The councilmen show no distinctive differences as all of them, regardless their political parties or seniority, are trying their best for good management and service for their electoral districts. As for the in-depth interview, the first part consists of the interviews with representative councilmen with features in their electoral district management. The interviewees are asked to provide their visions and practical executions for their electoral districts, and then explained the features of their electoral districts, the structure of the voters and the electoral competitions as to understand the online electoral resources established in accordance with their personal characteristics. The second part consist of interviews with the councilmen whose electrical districts contain planning funeral area by the city government as management case studies. Through the interviews, we are able to understand the councilmen’s channels to discover voters’ opposition, to mobilize voters for petition, to defend voters’ rights and to promote ideas and strategies for the electoral district management.

資訊與通訊科技的發達，公部門將其應用在公民參與，形成電子化參與。然而，由於政策議題的複雜使得一般大眾對其不甚了解而選擇冷漠，一般大眾將此種複雜的議題交給公部門中的行政菁英作決策，長久以來形成菁英文化。雖然近年來，文官致力於推展電子化參與，但電子化參與所獲得的網路民意，多半具有非理性、瑣碎、情緒化等特性，可能促使公部門菁英文化更加顯著，而影響電子化參與的推展。為了解公部門菁英文化是否會影響文官電子化參與的推展，利用計畫行為理論為研究架構。然而，由於計畫行為理論經常用於非組織內行為的研究，因此忽略組織無形因素的影響（例如：組織文化），因此本研究在利用計畫行為理論為研究架構檢視文官推展電子化參與時，特別納入菁英文化。本研究以文官推展網路民意論壇為研究範圍，採用問卷調查法，以非隨機抽樣，發放250份問卷，回收185份，回收率為74%，有效問卷為179份。 本研究主要發現為，第一、以計畫行為理論檢視組織內個體行為，雖然皆有顧及資源和機會等組織有形的影響因素，然而，許多研究忽略組織抽象的影響因素，如組織氣候，組織文化等。第二、菁英文化對於文官推展民意論壇的行為意圖有其影響性，只是僅有菁英文化其中之一的概念－公務人員相對於民眾對本身知識的看法對於行為意圖有影響，另一概念－公務人員相對於民眾對本身主導與影響力的看法則無影響。第三、計畫行為理論預測行為意圖僅考量態度、主觀規範、認知行為控制，然而，本研究認為在檢視文官推展民意論壇行為意圖時，更需考量菁英文化對行為意圖的直接影響。 為了改善菁英文化對於文官推展民意論壇的影響，本研究對此提出的實務建議有三，第一、利用願景工作坊改善文官對於菁英文化的看法，第二、促使電子化參與制度化使得網路民意品質提升，第三、文官民意分析能力提升以及機關資源的有效利用，促使文官提高推展民意論壇的行為頻率。而本研究後續研究建議有五，第一、樣本代表性的改善，第二、檢驗電子化參與的不同個案，第三、應用結構方程模型及質化研究方法，第四、檢視菁英文化與主觀規範之間的中介變項，第五、檢視菁英文化與行為意圖之間的調節變項。 / The civil servants have set into e-participation due to the fast development of information communication technologies (ICTs). However, because the public can’t understand policy domain knowledge in decision making, they expect the civil servants to cope with these professional matters. This long-term dependence on the civil servants and their expertise may foster the elite culture in the public sector and the elite culture has also impact on the civil servants’ intention for e-participation. In my thesis, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) is used to design and survey the above-mentioned elite culture situation for the public servants dealing with e-participation. The survey focuses on the civil servants’ intention and behavior of handling e-forum. 250 copies of questionnaires (non-probability sampling) are distributed and 185 copies returned, with 179 valid responses. Through data analysis, there are three key research findings. First, the majority of the existing research includes the physical organizational factors such as organizational resources. However, many previous studies do not include the implicit organizational factors such as organizational climate, organizational culture. Second, elite culture has general impact on the civil servants’ intention of setting into e-forum. However, only the civil servants’ evaluation of citizens’ policy expertise has impact on the intention; the other concepts fail to affect their attitude. Third, the study proposes to add elite culture to the existing TPB framework when we study the civil servants’ intention of setting into e-forum. To change elite culture’s impact on the civil servants’ intention, my thesis addresses three pragmatic suggestions. First, the civil servants can change their perspectives of elite culture through the scenario workshop. Second, the institutionalization of e-participation can enhance the quality of public opinions. Third, the enhancement of the civil servants’ ability of public opinions analysis and efficiency of organization resources can contribute to their performance of e-participation. The following research suggestions are recommended, including improving the representative of samples, studying multiple cases of e-participation, applying structural equation modeling and qualitative methods, studying the potential mediating variables between elite culture and subjective norm, and studying the moderating variables between elite culture and intention.

我國行政院在1982年即訂定《行政院所屬各機關民意調查作業要點》，透過社會科學研究方法的運用，瞭解相關人員對政府施政之意見，以作為政策研擬、評估及提升服務品質與機關內部管理等之參考。隨著1987年宣布解嚴，以及後續政黨政治、公職選舉、媒體發展等等因素，使得民意調查的應用更為廣泛，並且成為台灣民主政治發展歷程中相當重要的一環。同一時期，Sidney Blumenthal於1980年出版《永無止盡選戰》(The Permanent Campaign)一書，指出民選首長當選之後，即不斷為連任作準備，為了達到此一目的，不僅過去的輔選團隊會隨著進入到白宮擔任政治顧問的角色，並且選戰思維也會影響著民選首長的決策作為，讓選戰模式變成是一種治理方式，當中最明顯的特點就是民意調查的執行與應用。 台灣從解嚴之後，選舉次數亦十分地頻繁，從地方到中央，從民意代表到行政首長，儼然已經形成一個相當完整的職涯歷程。為探求我國民選首長就任之後，是否會藉由民意調查機制協助他們解決問題並進行相關的決策，本研究透過次級資料分析法、深度訪談法、民意調查法，針對我們地方政府的民意調查執行及應用情形進行調查。研究發現我國地方政府在民意調查的執行部分受到行政程序及財政狀況之影響，因此不若選舉時期來的有彈性。其次，在民意調查機制的應用部份，受訪者表示對於政策環境的釐清相當具有幫助，可以協助他們決定政策方案的採行。最後，為了瞭解「從眾效應」策略性民調結果的公佈是否會影響到一般民眾既有的認知，本研究透過兩階段民意調查的實驗，分別針對雲林縣、台中市的民眾進行電話民意調查，依據差異分析顯示，無法證實民意調查結果的公佈的確對於民眾既有的認知會造成改變。 / In the field of public opinion polls initiated in the 1930s, seeking collective preferences of citizens and customers for the government and the business sector by means of mail, telephone, or face-to-face interviews has brought about a significant impact on human political and business life in the 20th century. In the 1980, Sidney Blumenthal published the book "The Permanent Campaign". In this book, Blumenthal explained how the changes in American politics from old-style patronage and party organization to that based on the modern technology of computer driven polling created a fundamentally new system. The concept of a permanent campaign describes the focus which recent presidents have given to electoral concerns during their tenures in office, with the distinction between the time they have spent governing and the time they have spent campaigning having become blurred and political consultants had replaced the party bosses and brought with them a new model by which campaigning became the forms of governing. Is campaigning becoming the forms of governing in Taiwan? To answer this questions, this dissertation is beginning with the theory discussion of the perspective of the “permanent campaign” and the “democratic governance”. Then, with the help of the method of interview and secondary data analysis, author discuss the application and limitation of the public opinion poll using in the governance of the local government. Public opinion poll can help the elected leader to find out the problems but it is limited by financial condition of the government itself. The author also designed a two-stage public opinion poll and divided the respondents into experimental group and contrast group. The author hypothesizes that respondents will change their choices because of the impact of “Conformity” and used an evidence-based analysis to testify the hypothesis. Finally, the author gives his conclusion and suggestion.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第24652号 / 農博第2535号 / 新制||農||1097(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R5||N5433(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科地域環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 星野 敏, 教授 中村 公人, 准教授 鬼塚 健一郎, 特定准教授 清水 夏樹(神戸大学) / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:一般研究(A) 課題番号:03402043 研究代表者:中原 信生 研究期間:1991-1994年度