研究顯示，家族企業之數量與經濟影響力在全球企業環境中迅速成長並占有一席之地，成為具競爭力的存在，本研究以我國2001至2008年的上市（櫃）公司為樣本，探討財務分析師針對家族與非家族企業在預測行為上之差異，本研究之迴歸模型以分析師預測誤差、追蹤意願及預測離散程度三種特性分析財務分析師的預測行為，研究顯示相較於非家族企業，分析師對家族企業之預測意願較低，追蹤數量明顯較少，在預測結果上，家族企業會使分析師的預測產生較大的誤差，且各分析師間預測結果的差異程度也較大，本研究藉此結果推論家族企業中控制股東與其他股東代理問題的存在，及家族成員擔任管理者或董事等重要職位導致董事會喪失監督職能，在資訊揭露的數量與品質上表現較差。 / Prior research shows that family firms have grown rapidly and played an important role in the global corporate environment. This study examines the relation between family firms and financial analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors in Taiwan from year 2001 to 2008. I use several analysts forecast attributes: forecasts error, number of analysts following, and forecast dispersion. The results indicate that family firms generally have less analysts following, greater analysts’ forecast errors and greater forecast dispersion. These findings support the argument that the existence of conflict between majority and minority shareholders and that family members serving as managers or members of the board may weaken the disclosure of the quantity and quality of firm-specific information.

本研究旨在探討沙氏法302條款（Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 302，以下簡稱SOX302）、沙氏法404條款（Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 404，以下簡稱SOX404）與管理當局盈餘預測之關聯性，係美國S&P500之公司為研究對象，研究期間為2002年至2009年，主要檢測：(1)相對於SOX 404而言，在SOX 302規範下揭露無內部控制缺失之公司，其管理當局盈餘預測準確度是否會較低。(2)在SOX 404之規範下揭露有內部控制缺失之公司，公司層級的內部控制缺失相較於會計層級的內部控制缺失，是否會導致管理當局盈餘預測準確度較低。 本研究之實證結果顯示：(1)在無內部控制缺失情況下，相對於SOX 404而言，在SOX 302規範下，管理當局盈餘預測準確度會較低。(2)在SOX 404之規範下揭露有內部控制缺失之公司，公司層級的內部控制缺失相較於會計層級的內部控制缺失，會導致管理當局盈餘預測準確度較低。 / The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relation among SOX302, SOX404 and the accuracy of management earnings forecasts. Using a sample of S&P listed companies during the period 2002-2009, I address the following issues: (1) whether companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecast accuracy, compared with those under SOX404; (2) in the SOX404 context, whether companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy, compared with those with account-specific material weaknesses. As predicted, my empirical results show that: (1) compared with those under SOX404, companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecasts accuracy; (2) compared with those that disclosed account-specific material weaknesses under SOX404, the companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy.

歷經國內外多起知名企業的財務弊案後，各國政府及投資人開始關注公司的資訊透明度，企業也意識到資訊透明度對於企業永續經營的重要性，因此，本研究主要探討資訊透明度對於企業價值之影響。研究貢獻在於以具有專業和分析能力之分析師預測行為作為判斷企業資訊透明度之依據，進而探究其與企業價值之關聯性。本研究以2008年到2013年台灣上市(櫃)公司為樣本，以企業價值(Tobin’s Q)為應變數，資訊透明度相關之變數(分析師追蹤意願、分析師盈餘預測偏誤與分析師盈餘預測離散性)為主要解釋變數，在控制公司成長面、獲利面、風險面與公司規模因素，並固定產業和年份，利用追蹤資料迴歸模型(panel regression)來進行分析。 實證結果分為兩部分，（1）代表資訊透明度之變數－分析師預測意願、分析師預測精準度及分析師預測離散性與企業價值具有顯著正向關係。另利用前述之結果，本研究自行建立一個衡量企業透明度的模型，以整合性資訊探討資訊透明度對於企業價值的影響，實證結果顯示（2）資訊透明度與企業價值間確實具有顯著正向關係，結果支持良好的資訊透明度，有助於公司治理，長期間更能夠提升企業價值與永續經營。此外，本研究以整合資訊衡量企業資訊透明度，相較於單一資訊更為完善，也提供企業利害關係人及一般大眾不同面相去了解企業的資訊透明度，進而保護其權益。 / Since the occurrences of financial scandal, issues surrounding corporate governance and information disclosure have been widely discussed in these few years. Not only have government and investors started paying more attention on information transparency, but more and more firms have noticed that well corporate governance could help its sustainable development. The main purpose of this study is to examine the influences of information transparency on corporate value. Based on the samples of Taiwan listed firms for the period from 2009 to 2013, this study employs panel regression model with Corporate value (Tobin’s Q) as the dependent variable against various combinations of explanatory variables (analysts following, analysts’ earnings forecast bias and analysts’ earnings forecast derivation). The results of this research reveal that (1) the firms with high corporate value significantly have more analysts following, less analyst's earning forecast error and the greater forecast derivation. And by using an integrated model to do further analysis, the evidence shows that (2) higher information transparency could improve the corporate governance, gain more corporate value and benefit sustainable development in the long term. What’s more, instead of unitary source, this research measures corporate information transparency via integrated sources to ensure credibility, and provides various angles for corporate stakeholders and the general public to learn further more about corporate information transparency and be able to protect their rights.

法人說明會為近年來企業最常使用的自願性揭露方式之一，已逐漸成為企業管理當局與投資人溝通的重要管道，然而法人說明會之參加人員通常僅限於法人股東與財務分析師，因此財務分析師在企業管理當局與投資人之間扮演了一個重要的資訊傳遞角色。本研究以台灣高科技產業上市（櫃）公司為研究對象，探討法人說明會資訊揭露之豐富度，對分析師盈餘預測之樂觀程度、預測準確度以及預測離散性之影響，以及不同國籍券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其預測之影響。研究結果發現，分析師在資訊豐富性高的法人說明會後所做的盈餘預測會偏向樂觀預測，亦容易出現樂觀偏誤的現象，且資訊越豐富，分析師盈餘預測之離散性越低。若進一步分析券商國籍對盈餘預測之影響，可以發現本國券商在資訊豐富性高的法人說明會後所做的盈餘預測會偏向樂觀預測，外國券商則無此現象，表示相較於外國券商，本國券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其盈餘預測之影響較大。 / Nowadays,conference calls are one of the most often used voluntary disclosures by firms, and have become an important way of communication between management and investors.However,participants of conference calls are often institutional shareholders and financial analysts.As a result,financial analysts play an important role as an information communicator between management and investors.Based on a sample of publicly listed firms in Taiwan,this study explores whether the extent to which the richness of the content of conference calls affect the optimism,bias and dispersion of financial analysts' earnings forecasts,and whether the nationality of brokers causes different effects when they acquire the information of conference calls.We find that analysts' earnings forecasts become more optimistic and biased if conference calls contain richer information,and the dispersion of forecasts also becomes lower.Furthermore,domestic brokers' forecasts are more optimistic after conference calls which contained rich information,while there is no such phenomenon for foreign brokers.This indicates that conference calls have a greater impact on domestic than foreign brokers in making earnings forecasts.

法人說明會是公司傳遞內部訊息給外部使用者方法之一，透過法人說明會宣佈財務及非財務資訊，藉以消弭因資訊不對稱所產生之代理問題，亦為分析師作出盈餘預測參考依據之一。在半導體供應鏈中，其上、下游產業間關聯緊密，資訊具有垂直移轉效果，因此，本研究欲探討半導體供應鏈中，下游公司分析師參考上游關聯公司法人說明會資訊並作出盈餘預測調整之程度。 本研究針對國內2005年至2011年半導體上市、櫃公司，進行法人說明會資訊與分析師盈餘預測修正之關聯性。實證結果發現，下游公司財務分析師會參考上游關聯公司召開法人說明會所宣佈之預測財務及非財務資料，並修正對公司之盈餘預測；且供應鏈中，上、下游關係越遠及國籍為外國之分析師，對上游關聯公司法人說明會資訊依賴程度越高，作出的盈餘預測調整幅度越大。

本文以1999年至2006年間台灣改名公司為樣本(控制組)，並以與改名公司相同產業、相同規模之非改名公司作配對樣本(對照組)，透過兩者之比較以探討企業更名前後分析師行為之差異。本研究旨在檢驗改名事件日之前後60天(樣本期間為120天)，分析師之盈餘預測、盈餘成長率預測及盈餘預測離散性之差異，另外也會對改名前後之分析師人數變動作檢測。為了探討樣本期間拉長而樣本數增加是否會影響檢測之情形，額外於第五章之敏感性分析作改名前後90天(樣本期間為180天)，改名對於分析師行為影響之研究。另外，為比較不同類型的改名方式或條件不同的改名公司其改名事件對於分析師行為之影響，本文將改名的樣本公司依不同標準分成以下三類：第一種分類以新名稱是否有當紅產業字眼的變化作區分，第二種分類依新舊名稱之改變是否明顯且易於分辨而作大改名與小改名之區分，第三種分類方式則依新名稱是否與公司本業相符合作區分。 研究結果發現，不論樣本期間為120天或180天，實證結果皆顯示，相對於非改名公司，分析師會向上修正改名公司之盈餘預測及盈餘成長率預測，惟120天之結果較180天更為顯著，推測可能原因為樣本期間拉長後，干擾預測變動的因素相對增加而使改名之影響減低。樣本期間120天之實證結果也顯示，若新名稱有當紅產業字眼者，則對事件日後分析師盈餘預測及盈餘成長率預測也有正向關係；屬於大改名者則對事件日後分析師盈餘預測有正向關係 / This paper investigates the impact of corporate name changes on analysts’ behavior around the time of their announcement by analyzing listed Taiwanese companies that changed their name over the period January 1999 to December 2006. To make further investigations, we conduct separate analysis of firms having certain popular industry related new names versus non-popular industry related new names; of firms having ‘major’ versus ‘minor’ name changes; of firms having good versus poor connection between business and new names. Generally, we find some evidence of a significant positive association between the corporate name change event and the change of analysts’ behavior. The empirical results show that in contrast to non name change firms, analysts will revise up EPS and EPS growth forecast for name change firms. The results also suggest that analysts tend to revise up EPS and EPS growth forecast for firms having certain popular industry related new names. Furthermore, we also find a positive association between major name changes and analysts’ EPS forecast.

本論文分為兩部分，第一部份是探討全球航空產業的油料避險會不會對公司價值有所影響，以及油料避險的誘因。第二部份則是檢視全球航空公司的風險曝露會不會影響分析師的預測誤差，尤其是燃油價格變動的風險曝露。 / In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures. Two essays are comprised in this dussertation to examine whether jet fuel hedging has effects on firm value and analysts’ forecast accuracy in the global airline industry. Using global data allows us to cmpare the differences of jet fuel hedging behavior and incentives for hedging across different sub-samples. Furthermore, we also examine how jet fuel hedging affects analysts’ forecast erros across different sub-samples and its implications for firm disclosures about their risk exposures in the financial reports. In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures.

企業自願性盈餘預測屬資訊公開體系的一環，我國相關法令雖要求自願性盈餘預測必須於發布後二日公告，並經會計師核閱，且錯誤超過盈餘之20%必須要強制修正，但是實務上企業管理者常游走法律邊緣，而主管機關也沒有嚴格執法，使得公司盈餘預測常被詬病，甚至有淪為股票炒作工具之說，嚴重損害投資人的利益，這樣的現象或許可以透過規範董事會的組成進而強化公司監管的機制來獲得解決。先前有關盈餘預測的研究並沒有將公司監管機制以及董事會中的家族因素納入考量，因此，本研究試圖以公司監管的角度出發，並加入家族因素，以橫斷面迴歸分析的方法，探討一般董事會結構及公司監管機制（自變數）與自願性盈餘預測行為（應變數）之關聯性。 在自變數中，一般董事會結構方面除了包括董事會持股比例外，尚採用Cubbin and Leech（1983）的表決機率模型，做為家族企業判斷的依據，以便將家族因素納入考量，而公司監理機制方面則包括非關係企業法人董事、法人投資機構以及法人以外第二勢力等三項。在應變數中，本研究將應變數依照是否發布自願性盈餘預測、自願性盈餘預測發布次數以及自願性盈餘預測發布準確性等，分為三個主題依序探討。研究結論如下： 1.董事會持股愈高，企業愈不會發布自願性盈餘預測，一旦發布，錯誤的機會較高。 2.家族愈能掌控董事會時，企業愈有發布自願性盈餘預測的意願，一旦發布，修正的機會並不高。而家族企業中，家族持股愈高時，發布自願性盈餘預測的意願愈強烈，但是準確性也愈低。 3.董事會中法人第二勢力存在（非關係企業法人持股大於3%），同時持股較高時，會提高企業對外發布自願性盈餘預測的意願，其修正預測的機會比較低。 4.董事會中法人以外第二勢力存在，同時持有股數較高時，愈會降低自願性盈餘預測修正的機會，而盈餘預測準確性也會比較高。 5.公司董事會被家族所掌控時，在第一次盈餘預測發布時，較有可能發布比實際情況樂觀的盈餘預測，而公司當年度有好消息或是規模較大時，也較可能發布比實際情況樂觀的盈餘預測。至於負債比率較大的公司，發布盈餘預測的態度反而比較保守，較可能出現低估的情形。

財務報表記錄可說是企業經營績效良窳的反映指標，而其中所衍生出來的財務比率，向 來均是管理者、投資者進行企業診斷或未來經營績效預測的重要資訊來源。然而，相關 的研究發現，由於產業間經濟環境與市場結構特性的不同，所呈現出來的財務報表資訊 內涵亦將有所差別。因此，若進一步運用個別產業之報表資訊預測公司未來盈餘時，將 能夠提供產業間結果進行分析與比較的基礎。 如何自報表中獲取與公司經營績效相關之會計資訊，進而建構出優良的盈餘預測模式， 是近幾年來學者感興趣的研究課題之一。鑑於人工智慧之類神經網路系統擁有多項的特點，因此，對於盈餘預測會計資訊萃取的應用上，無非是提供了我們一個新的選擇途徑。 本研究即根據此項概念，以民國70年第一季至民國82年第三季為止共十五項大小產業之 股票上市公司財務報表以及股價報酬等資料作為研究樣本，進行盈餘預測模式的建構以 及投資超額報酬的計算。 進一步地說，本研究的內容可以分成三個部份，第一部份是以整體市場樣本為例，對類 神經網路主要參數如輸入變數組合、隱藏層節點數等進行調整及測試，以從中選取出盈 餘預測效果較佳之模式設定；在第二部份則是運用此一盈餘預測模式，分別對整體市場 以及紡織、電子電機 兩項產業樣本進行網路的訓練與測試，並根據模式所獲得之區別及 預測能力評估指標，探討不同產業特性樣本所建構的模式之間，其預測結果上的差異性 ；而第三部份則是利用各類產業模式預測結果的資訊，從利潤與風險兩種角度，定義"總 體"、"高利潤"、"低風險"、 "高利潤低風險"等四種不同類型投資策略，並以事件研究 法計算各項策略所能獲取之累積超額報酬，最後，則根據各策略之獲利績效，進行產業 間的分析比較，以找出本研究各類特定產業之最適投資策略。 本研究根據前述方式所進行的實驗研究中，獲得了以下三點結論： 一、類神經網路盈餘預測模式之建構 (一)以整體市場樣本為對象所進行之網路的測試中，發現模式整體區別能力大致介於五 到七成之間；而整體預測能力則介於四到六成之間。 (二)本研究所找出盈餘預測效果較佳之網路模式設定如下：1.輸入變數組合：單因子多變量變異數分析之22項顯著性財務比率 2.網路架構(輸入層-隱藏層-輸出層)：22-22-1 3.連結權數初始值設定範圍：-0.1~0.1 二、產業盈餘預測結果之分析 (一)整體而言，產業間模式測試結果的差異並不大，其中以紡織產業的模式區別及預測 能力最好(70%以上)，電子電機產業次之，而整體市場模式的結果均不及兩項單一性產業。 (二)模式預測能力穩定性方面，各產業於五個年度間預測率的波動大致還算穩定，其中 就紡織產業而言，其年度之間模式預測能力的差別不大，但電子電機產業年度間的變化 則要比前者來得明顯。 三、產業投資策略績效之分析 (一)各類型投資策略的整體結果中，紡織與電子電機兩項產業的獲利績效相當，且均要 比整體市場來得好，其中，紡織產業之"高利潤低風險"策略所獲得的累積超額報酬(43.28%) 更居全體之冠。 (二)本研究所找出之個別產業最適投資策略分別為： 1.整體市場：總體策略、低風險策略 2.紡織產業：高利潤低風險策略、高利潤策略 3.電子電機產業：高利潤低風險策略、低風險策略 / Financial Statements are very important information indicating performance of corporations. Managers and investors use financial ratios as vital indexes to evaluate and predict operating results of corporations, and make their decisions. ategy, and compute CAR for each investment strategies. At last, I analyze the investing results of the four strategies for individual industry. ANN ( Artificial Nerual Network) shoot a new direction on researching application of abstracting accounting information which can efficiently predict earnings. According to results of relative researches, financial statements from different industries present and implicate different accounting information. If we further apply ANN on financial statement information to predict earnings of corporations, we can use the results as bases of analyses and comparisons among industries. Because ANN model has many advantages, in this research, I use financial statements and return on stocks from corporations as researching samples to construct prediction models and compute CAR(Cumulative Abcdrmal Return) on investments. These samples are chosen from 15 different industries and covered from the first quarter of 1981 to the third quarter of 1993. This research consists of three parts: 22 financial ratios selected by MANOVA First, I use the general market samples to adjust and predict the vital parameters of ANN models, such as the selection of input variable, the number of hidden node, and finally pick better setups for the prediction model. Second, I use this model to train and test samples from the general market, the textile, and the electron industry, and research the variation of predicting results by different models made up different industries by means of evaluation indexes . Third, I use the results predicted by the three different industry models, inspect of risk and return, to define four types of investment strategies -- "the general", "the high return", "the low risk", and "the high return - low risk" strategy, and compute CAR for each investment strategies. At last, I analyze the investing results of the four strategies for individual industry. After researching, I find:s of the textile and electron industry are better than the general markets'. 1.The better setups of ANN predition models are :industries are: (1)the selection of input variable:the 22 financial ratios selected by MANOVA (2)the ANN model topology(input node - hidden node - output node):22-22-1 rategy (3)the range of initial connection weights:-0.1~0.1 return - low risk strategy 2.The analyses of results predicted by the three different industry models are: (1)the predicting abilities of the textile and electron industry are better than the general markets'. 3.The proper investment strategies of individual industries are: (1)the general market:the general and the low risk strategy (2)the textile industry:the high return and the high return - low risk strategy (3)the electron industry:the low risk and the high return - low risk strategy

本文以事件研究法探討在公司治理程度不同的公司發布盈餘預測時， 不同類型的投資人在事件窗期中所反映的投資行為。首先以獨立董事與監 察人佔董監席次比例、董監事持股比例、大股東持股比例、經理人持股比 例、機構投資人持股比例、盈餘股份比以及董事長是否兼任總經理作為判 別公司治理程度的指標。再以公司發布盈餘預測的時點做區別，分別以當 年度首度預測是否由公司本身發布，與之後調高以及調低預測做為事件日。 實證結果顯示，當公司治理佳者發布盈餘預測時，外資會出現較多的買超 行為且獲得較高的異常報酬，散戶則持相反動作；而公司治理差者發布盈 餘預測時，散戶的買賣超變化量一般而言會較法人大，出現短期進出的情 形較多，且外資在其調高盈餘預測時，也不會馬上進行買進。整體而言， 外資在公司發布盈餘預測時所做出的交易行為，大致上與公司的治理程度 有正向關係，散戶則大多報持短線進出的態度。 / This study examines how different types of investors behave when entities with different corporate governances announce earnings forecasts. Using seven corporate governance indicators to categorize all of the samples and analyzing how the abnormal return, the results suggests foreign institutional investors are gaining more abnormal return by buying more stocks after earnings announcements of the entities with better corporate governance, and would not interact right after earnings announcements of the entities with worse corporate governance, when the individual investors are going the opposite way to the foreign institutional investors.