台灣自1993年公佈「有線電視法」後，有線電視產業發展快速，系統業者為因應市場的激烈競爭，紛採取垂直整合、合併或購併方式，致使廠商家數變化異常；同時由於採取整批收費方式，在價格上限管制之下，系統業者對市場具有壟斷力量，莫不提高收費管制上限的水準；而節目與廣告內容在不分級之下，可能影響青少年身心發展，依此多數學者與新聞局企圖引進「分級付費制度」及推出「付費頻道」與「計次付費頻道」以解決上述問題。有關「付費頻道」與「計次付費頻道」之供應，可增加市場服務之多樣性，然消費者的接受意願及真正的偏好。首先，本文應用巢式多項式羅吉特模型探討消費者對「分級付費制度」與現行整批收費方式的選擇意願；其次，再探討消費者選擇「分級付費制度」下，有關「付費頻道」與「計次付費頻道」的選擇意願模型；最後，應用台灣有線電視消費者的問卷資料對上述巢式羅吉特模型進行實證估計，並根據實證結果，嘗試對有線電視業者在提供「付費頻道」與「計次付費頻道」等節目時新服務管理策略的建議。

住宅為兼具消費及投資之雙重功能財貨，因此若從購屋動機劃分購屋族群，可以分為自住者及投資者，近年來受到國內房市呈現生氣蓬勃之景象及利率持續走低等總體經濟因素影響之下，出現越來越多以投資為主要目的之投資型購屋者，對於金融機構之購屋貸款業務來說，投資者之還款行為相較於自住者是比較不穩定的。故本文之研究目的即藉由探討自住者及投資者之購屋特徵異同，建立投資者之機率預測模型，預測某購屋者成為投資者之機率，提供一較為客觀之機率預測模型，供作金融機構放貸參考準則。接著進一步探討在不同機率界限（cutoff point）下之預測準確率，找出預測準確率最高之機率界限值，提高本模型之預測準確度；並探討金融機構在不同經營方針下之較適機率界限值。 / 本文使用台灣住宅需求動向季報之已購屋者問卷，建立二元羅吉特模型。研究結果顯示，區位在中心都市、高單價、小面積產品及大面積產品、預售屋及拍賣屋市場屬於投資型產品，而搜尋時間短、搜尋間數少、年齡較長、男性、無固定職業及家庭平均月收入較高者成為投資者之機率較高。接著，運用貝氏定理計算出預測準確率最高之機率界限值，結果當機率界限值為0.70時預測準確率最高，投資者達72.22%，自住者達80.07%。此外，並使用2007Q4的資料作樣本外驗證，投資者命中率為65.52%，自住者命中率為84.51%。最後，為提供金融機構運用，本文模擬兩種預測誤差在不同權重下對於金融機構所造成的損失，找出損失最少的機率界限值，結果皆是以0.70為最適機率界限值。 / Housing is dual function goods, consumption and investment, so if we separate the home buyers by their motives, they can be defined as two groups, owner-occupiers and investors. Recently, because the housing market is vigorous inland and the rates are fairly low, there are more and more home buyers buying houses for investment. To financial institutions, their payment behaviors are more instable, compare to owner-occupiers. So this article is aim to build a probability predictive model of housing investors by discussing the different home buying characters between owner-occupiers and investors. Therefore we can provide financing institutions a more objective method evaluating if they should lend money to the home buyers. Then we discuss the predictive accuracy with different cutoff points, finding the cutoff point with highest predictive accuracy, therefore we can elevate the model`s predictive accuracy. Besides, we also discuss the most optimal cutoff point for financial institutions under different administration principles. / This article builds binary logit model by the data of “Housing Demand Survey in Taiwan”. Our results suggests that if the houses in downtown、high unit price、big and small acreage、presale and court auction housing market belong to investing houses. And short search duration、few search items、older、male、non-constant job、higher income are getting higher probability to be housing investors. Then, we use Bayesian Theorem to figure out the cutoff point with highest predictive accuracy, and Our results suggests that 0.70 cutoff point with highest predictive accuracy , at that time, investor predictive accuracy is 72.22%, owner-occupier is 80.07%. Besides, we also do the out-sample test by the 2007Q4 data, the investor`s hit-rate is65.52%, the owner-occupier`s hit-rate is 84.51%. At the end, in order to provide financial institution to use, we give two predictive deviation different weights, to find the smallest loss cutoff point, the result all suggest that 0.70 is the most optimal cutoff point.

多樣化壽險商品時代來來臨、壽險業目標市場鎖定的需求，致使「選擇適當的目標市場」和「設計適合目標市場的行銷組合策略」成為保險業者在擬定行銷策略所應注重兩大方向。惟如何選擇最具有吸引力，而又適合本身資源條件及競爭環境的目標市場，則就是行銷理論研究及實務上最重要的一項問題。 綜觀目前國內各研究所的論文中，關於消費者對於保險商品之購買行為的研究，多集中在消費者購買保險的原因或動機之分析上。惟其多是描述性、相關性分析為主，而此類研究方式雖然有其實用性，但其在缺乏「因果關係」的分析下，實無法了解消費者本身之不同，所引起購買意願之不同。再者，其並未進一步針對不同商品，研究影響消費者之所以購買不同商品之因素，係因任何忽略「商品多樣性」的研究，顯然過於簡化影響是否消費者購買保險商品之因素。本文對於消費者購買行為之基本認識為：消費者決定『是否購買』。保險，以及決定『選擇何種』保險的過程是同一的、不可分的。」因此，本文將以「多樣化的保險商品」為前提，來研究消費者決定「是否」購買保險、以及「選擇」購買何種保險之原因或動機。 究竟「消費者本身的差異性」與「是否購買及購買何種保險」之間存在什麼樣的關係，同時也是保險公司在保單設計、搭配、以及保險行銷上不可忽略之重要裁題。本文從于證資料上分析此一問題，以EKB消費者行為模式為理論基礎，依消費者本身的不同的背景、不同投保的動機、不同對保險的認知等等不同追求產品的相對利益為基礎因素，來探討消費者對不同的保險商品的需求。 本文乃以『問卷調查』為研究工具，針對台灣地區 20 歲- 70 歲之消費者為研究對象，實際訪查消費者所偏好之保險商品。共計取得有效問卷 965 份，輔以以效用函數為理論基礎之『羅吉特迴歸模式』計量方式，找出「消費者本身的差異性」與「是否購買及購買何種保險產品」之間的因素，並而建立消費者效用函數，進而預估消費者購買保險機率，促使業者更能設計符合消費者需求之保單組合。 研究結果顯示，在「是否會購買保險」的議題上，發現消費者教育程度不同會影響其購買意願；「保險演講會的舉行」、「親友在保險公司做事」或「自身或家屬曾發生事故」時，亦會明顯提高消費者之購買意願；業務員的上門推銷將是促使消費者引起購買保險的主要動機之一；再者，消資者在購買保險時，最重要之評估準則，則在於壽險期間是否太長、領回的錢值不值得及保費是否會太高等問題。 就「偏好購買不同商品」的議題上，本研究亦就目前市面上較為普遍之十種商品作研究，研究發現影響消費者偏好購買各個商品之因素各有不同，本文亦對其作綜合整理。最後亦針對研究結果，就各個不同保險商品，依其具有顯著水準之人口統計變項作--市場區隔，以期能提供保險公司或業務員在銷售時，可依商品的不同對消費大眾做市場區隔，使業務員或保險公司較易針對消費者不同的需求，做出較適合消費者且較易使消費者接受的保單設計。相信如此一來，非但有助於保險公司之保單設計與行銷，對於保險消費者如何選擇最適合自己的保單，也有相當的助益。 / The main goal of this research is to study the motives of the consumers purchasing the insurance policies and the selecting procedures. The previous researches on this area have been focused on the purchasing motives of each individual consumer. This kind of approach is widely used in practice. However, the consumers are not facing one insurance product but a variety of different insurance portfolios. In this study, we focus on analyzing the consumer-purchasing behavior of insurance portfolios. The logistic regression model is used to estimate the preference of the consumers among different insurance policies. The procedures of this study are summarized in the following: ( 1 )Review the developments of the previous researches and the findings. ( 2 )Design an appropriate questionnaire to collect the valid information and formulate the logistic regression model in this study. ( 3 )Collect the samples from the questionnaire and code this survey into a database system. ( 4 )Estimate the coefficients in the regression model in Step (2) and analyze the results. Finally comment on the findings. Using the logistic regression model is helpful for the marketing department in insurance company to target the appropriate populations and differentiate the various insurance portfolios. In this study, the information from the questionnaire is investigated based on our choice model. Monitoring these effects is beneficial for the managers having concise information in our target markets. Finally, a quantitative model is proposed for Taiwan insurance markets and the recommended marketing strategy.

住宅選擇是每一個家戶都會面臨到的問題，過去文獻發現購屋者先選擇租屋或購屋，若決定購屋，則先決定於何區位購屋，然後再決定購買何種房屋類型之房屋，然而卻未曾提及購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇。預售屋、新成屋以及中古屋等不同市場類型之住宅，各自隱含不同的效用及風險，影響著購屋者之選擇，因此本研究試圖討論購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇與偏好。 本研究採用內政部營建署「住宅需求動向調查」資料，利用混合多項羅吉特模型探討不同限制條件下，預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之個體選擇行為。實證結果顯示，投資者較偏好於購買知覺風險較高之預售屋，期待以高知覺風險換取高的報酬；教育程度較高者，因對居住品質要求愈高，因此傾向於選擇設備新穎之預售屋與新成屋；家戶平均月所得較高之購屋者，負擔能力較高，因此選擇總價較高之預售屋機率較高，其次為新成屋。此外，搜尋頻率愈高者，選擇預售屋之機率愈高，因預售屋無實體存在，預售屋購屋者為降低其知覺風險，將花費更高之搜尋成本。在價格彈性分析部分，實證結果顯示預售屋之競爭力最高，但預售屋之受衝擊力亦最高，而中古屋之競爭力於三種市場類型中居次，但中古屋衝擊力最小，因此，當單價屬性發生變動時，較不影響中古屋購屋者之選擇，但卻大幅影響預售屋購屋者之選擇機率。 / Every household would face housing choice, the past housing choice study founded that households decided tenure choice first, if they decides to buy a house, they first decided on what location, and then decided what type of housing to buy, but it has not been mentioned the housing choice among different residential market types. Pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses implied different effectiveness and risks, affecting the choice of homebuyers. This article tried to discuss homeowners’ choice among different residential market types. This study use Construction and Planning Agency, "Housing Demand Survey of 2009" data, use mixed multinomial logit model, investigated under different constraints, housing choice behavior among pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses. The empirical results showed that investors prefer higher perceived risk in buying pre-sale housing, looking for a high perceived risk and high rewards; higher education level, due to the higher quality requirements for living, so they preferred pre-sale houses and newly constructed houses. Homebuyers which have higher average monthly household income, have more affordable ability, so the probability of choosing pre-sale houses are much higher, followed by the newly constructed houses. In addition, the higher search frequency were more likely to choose pre-sale houses because pre-sale houses for sale no physical presence, pre-sale housing homebuyers in order to reduce their perceived risk, would spend more search costs. In the price elasticity analysis, empirical results showed that the pre-sale houses had the highest competitiveness, but the impact force was also the highest, while the existing houses market, the competitiveness of the third types was the second place, and the competitiveness of the existing houses was the smallest. Thus, when a change in unit price attribute, does not affect existing houses homebuyers, but significantly affected the choice probability of pre-sale houses homebuyers.

台灣地區由於國民平均壽命延長，加速了人口結構轉型、老人人口快速增加，因此衍生許多老人居住安養之課題。為探討影響都會區民眾選擇老人住宅之因素，本研究以台北縣永和市為研究範圍。透過問卷調查收集所需資料，以安德遜服務使用行為模式之個人因素及影響服務使用之限制因素為基礎，透過卡方檢定、因子分析、羅吉特迴歸分析及交叉分析等量化分析方法，實證影響台北縣永和市50歲以上人中、老年人選擇老人住宅服務的相關因素。 本研究結果發現，在個人決定方面，性別、年齡、健康情況、現有子女數、家庭總收入、目前居住型態及理想居住型態等變項對入住老人住宅之意願有顯著影響。在限制因素方面，老人住宅之資訊、可近性、租金及老人住宅類型等變項對入住老人住宅之意願有顯著影響。大部份受訪者認為複合化、多機能的老人住宅及降低收費最能提高入住老人住宅之意願。另最廣為受訪者接受之老人住宅類型為規模在50戶以內、與醫療保健設施或社會教育設施以分棟型態複合開發之老人住宅。 本研究建議老人住宅開發業者以複合化、多樣化、小型化的開發模式興建老人住宅；建議政府應重視老人住宅出租市場，加強宣導鼓勵民眾居住老人住宅，建立老人住宅資訊平台，以活絡老人住宅出租市場，增加需求量，吸引更多優質廠商投資。在對台北縣永和市老人住宅政策之建議方面，建議老人住宅服務對象應從選擇性服務擴大到全民性服務，中興社區安養堂應轉型為多機能、複合化的老人住宅。 / In Taiwan, with the advances of medical technology, the life span of people has been extended. As a result, the population of senior people has increased dramatically; therefore, their accommodation and domiciliary care became a big issue in modern society.This research studies the middle-aged and senior people whose age over 50 and live in Yonghe City,Taipei County. Collecting data by questionnaire and using quantity methodology of Andersen model, Chi-square test, Factor Analysis, Logistic Regression and Cross Analysis to understand the factors that affect senior people to choose elderly housing. The result shows, in term of personal decision, the factors of gender, age, healthy conditions, number of children, household income, current living pattern and ideal living pattern etc. will affect senior people to choose elderly housing. In term of limiting factors, the information of elderly housing, residence distance with relatives, a rental and type of elderly housing etc. will affect senior people’s choices. Most interviewers think composite and multifunctional elderly housing as well as cheaper charge would increase the desire to live in elderly housing. Meanwhile, the most popular elderly housing type is less than 50 apartments with medicinal facilities or educational services in the community. This research suggests house building company should develop composite and multifunctional elderly housing in a small community for senior people. In addition, government should think seriously of elderly housing letting market by publicizing the information to encourage senior people to live in elderly housing. Once the house demand increased, it will attract more decent building companies developing more elderly housing to promote for senior people. Furthermore, this research suggests the housing policy in Yonghe City, Taipei County should broaden elderly housing service from selectivity senior people to general elderly. And the Jhong-sing Elderly Community Shelter should be transformed into composite and multifunctional elderly housing.

過去有關土地使用分區管制與地價兩者間關係之研究，往往假設地價在實施規劃管制過程中呈中立性，且過去在探討土地使用分區管制與地價二者間關係之研究時，多著重在探討土地使用分區管制施行後對地價之影響上，對於土地使用分區管制決策是否受到土地市場中地價之影響，則僅在少數的研究中被探討。故本研究首先透過國內外相關文獻之回顧與分析，得知規劃管制決策者有時為求得最大之政治支持，有可能會以規劃管制為其尋求最大政治利益之工具，而扭曲規劃管制之原意，使得土地使用分區管制決策可能受到土地市場中地價之影響，然而地價於實際經濟社會中是否會影響土地使用分區管制決策，則有待進一步的探討與驗證。 是以本研究以公共選擇理論與消費者效用理論為基礎，透過台北縣市土地使用分區管制決策過程與內涵之探討，利用羅吉特(logit)迴歸分析模型，以台北市為實證範圍，並以其72至81年度之房地移轉買賣實際調查資料，進行分年橫斷面分析方式，求取選擇性偏誤訂正項後，再納入地價方程式中估計，以求地價函數一致性估計，據以逐年檢驗地價對土地使用分區管制決策之影響情形。再以台北市信義計畫區為個案分析之對象，檢視於現實社會中地價對土地使用分區管制決策之影響情形。 經由上述之實證與個案分析，得到以下之結論： 一、土地使用分區管制決策在執政者追求最大政治利益之假設下，將可能受到利益團體等相關者之壓力，而做出只利於少數人之土地使用分區管制決策。 二、土地使用分區管制決策可能會受土地市場中地價之影響。 三、地價對土地使用分區管制決策之影響不穩定。 四、對土地使用分區管制決策時應有制度性之建立以審慎考量規劃管制之旨意。 / In the literatures, the study on. the relationship between land price and zoning control was assumed that land price is neutral. Moreover, the studies of land price and zoning control are more on the impact of land use control upon land price. The issue that impact of land prices upon the decision making of zoning control is rarely investigated. Based upon the theories of public choice and consumer's utility, this study discusses the process and content of zoning control decision-making. Then, by Logit model, the transaction data of property in Taipei City from 1983 to 1992 are employed to test the impact of land price upon the decision making of zoning control. Furthermore, a case study of Shin-I Planning District in Taipei City is analyzed so as to examine the impact of land price upon zoning control decision-making in the real operation. The major findings of this study are that, land price may affect the decision making of zoning control in the long term. However, the impact of land price upon the zoning control decision-making is unstable. Finally, based upon the public choice theory, the empirical results are discussed so as to apply the findings to the land policy.