學習表現為教育社會學中的重要議題，其中城鄉間的學習表現差距受到重視。過去研究認為家庭背景與地區的教育資源是影響學生學習表現的主要因素，然而這些研究缺乏班級因素與同儕效果的分析。因此本研究使用台灣教育長期追蹤資料庫（Taiwan Education Panel Survey, TEPS）在2001年與2003年的國中生樣本，以階層線性模型（Hierarchical Linear Modeling, HLM）分析國一班級同儕學習投入對國三數學表現的影響，學習投入以學生為課業所付出的時間為指標。分析結果發現：(1)學生數學表現的總變異中有24%來自班級因素的影響，76%為學生因素。(2)國三數學表現、個人學習投入與班級同儕學習投入有城鄉差距。(3)在控制其他變項下，個人學習投入、班級同儕學習投入對數學表現有正向效果。(4)班級所在地區的都市化程度透過班級同儕學習投入間接影響國三數學表現。 / Academic performance has been an important topic of research on educational sociology for a long time, while urban-rural differences have been already well documented in literatures. In the past, the literature indicated that the key factors to affecting academic performance are family background and the educational resources. But these researches have ignored the factors of class level and peer effects. In this study, the data are from Taiwan Education Panel Survey (TEPS) in 2001 and 2003, use Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) to assess how peer engagement affects junior high students’ mathematics performance. The time students spend in studying is an index of engagement. The main finding are: (1) This research model accounts for 76% of the variation in student level and for 24% of the class variation in class level with regard to mathematical performance. (2) Students in the urban and rural city show a differences in their mathematics performance, student’s own engagement and peer engagement. (3) When controlling variables, student’s own engagement and peer engagement have positive effect on mathematics performance. (4) Urbanization levels indirectly affect mathematics performance through peer engagement.

近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 / In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.

觀光產業為現在世界主要產業之一，稱之為「無煙囪產業」，因其汙染少且外部成本相較許多工業產業來的低，許多國家都致力於發展觀光業，投入許多政策吸引觀光客到訪。我國政府近年來也推動許多政策是針對外籍旅客觀光計畫。如民國92年的「觀光客倍增計畫」預期於2008年達成目標，於是在同年於「觀光發展條例」中增訂的「外籍旅客購物退稅」，外籍旅客購物退稅的實施更是發展觀光產業的重要措施之一，觀光產業在觀光較為發達的已開發國家中，都十分重視旅客購物退稅這項措施，臺灣政府於民國92年實施政策至今，經歷了幾次重大改制，本文致力於研究於民國100年7月實施的「現場小額退稅」措施，是否對來臺外籍旅客的消費行為有顯著影響，並對今年實施的新制退稅措施是否再次影響旅客消費意願作出預期。 本研究以外籍旅客國籍及其消費金額之追蹤資料進行迴歸分析，蒐集位於臺北市區的某特定營業人2009年8月至2015年12月的外籍旅客退稅資料，針對來自七個國家及地區的外籍遊客消費行為建立來臺觀光需求模型。以政府實施的「現場小額退稅」措施當作主要的政策變數，並選取幾個影響旅客需求的重要變數為控制變數，建立以旅客總消費量、平均消費量、特定營業人之營業額為因變數的三個模型，觀察政策變數及其他控制變數對於外籍旅客消費行為的影響。 以全體樣本實證結果發現，本政策變動對於旅客總消費量、商店之營業額均有顯著正向影響，對於旅客平均消費量也是正面的影響；本文也將七個國家及地區分別討論，以美國、日本及中國旅客對於政策效果的影響最為顯著且正向，其他國家雖不顯著但多為正向關係。顯見政策的推動確實有助於提升外籍旅客來臺及消費意願，對發展臺灣觀光旅遊產業是一項助益。 / According to UNWTO, tourism industry has experienced continuous growth and become one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Many countries have committed themselves to developing tourism industry nowadays due to lower externality. Taiwanese government also has some implemented plans on tourism industry of which foreigners are allowed to apply for “VAT Refund”, hoping that the increase in international tourist may give the economy a boost. Our study has conducted an empirical analysis on the policy of On-Site Small Amount Tax Refund, which is mainly concentrated in panel data estimation. The purpose of this thesis is to find out the effect of this policy. First, we use Dummy variable as a main variable to capture the influence of the policy. Second, we introduce both the demand factors and the supply factors to explain tourism spending in Taiwan. The span of the data is from August 2009 to December 2015, using Tax Refund data of foreigners from 7 countries and districts. Our empirical analysis show that the Tax Refund policy has had significantly positive effect on both dependent variables, including total consumption and store revenue, especially these from U.S.A., Japan and China. These three countries show the strongest response to the dependent variables. It also shows that implementation of this Tax Refund policy really contributes to our tourism industry by increasing international tourism receipts of Taiwan.

在全球化趨勢下，地方競爭將取代國家的競爭，地方是國家能否與全球競爭之關鍵，提高地方的競爭優勢與發展地方經濟是各國政府努力的目標。財政制度對長期地方發展扮演重要角色。透過政府間的權限與財源之劃分，一方面可使政府所提供之財貨和勞務適應不同地方人民偏好之制度效率目標，進而使所得成長；另方面可維持全國一致性和地方間的發展平衡，避免各地方所得分配過度懸殊的公平目標。良好的財政制度必須能提升各政府部門自我負責性及經濟效率，促進地方所得成長卻不會傷害地方間均衡發展之公平目標。本文以單根檢定法分析發現民國72年至93年間我國政府部門財政制度變遷，以及民國88年以後財政收支劃分法修正後財政制度調整，的確使政府間財政資源分配更趨向公平，但多個地方政府間財政自主程度並未提升且差異大。又透過民國79年至93年23個直轄市與縣市地方政府長期追蹤資料，分析發現我國財政制度在地方發展上扮演非常重要角色。財政分權制度與地方政府財政收支制度的確對各地方所得成長率與地方所得分配有顯著影響效果。但地方政府財政收支制度無法發揮效率，對地方發展有不利影響。88年財政制度調整後地方財政制度對地方發展之不利影響並未有所改善。本文根據研究結果提出制度建議，以作為未來制定地方財政制度與地方發展政策之參考。 / Local governments faced severe fiscal imbalance problems for a long time, caused in part by long-term structural imbalances between their spending and revenue requirements. May be financial structural has positive consequences on local economic development. The article examines the relationship between the fiscal structure of local government and local economic development. Although most prior empirical studies present inconsistent findings about the effects of local taxing and spending policies, but more empirical works conclude that local income growth relates negatively to tax increases if the revenue finances income redistribution, but not if the revenue finances public services. The study examines these issues with more recent panel data of Taiwan and with more careful attention the effects of fiscal decentralization. We conclude that local economic development relates negatively to local tax increases if the revenue finances local public service . Local Financial structural and fiscal decentralization have negative consequences on local economic development.

本論文包括3篇時間序列方法在財務的應用。第一篇以門檻向量自我迴歸模型(threshold vector autoregression)分析股市訊息傳遞的不對稱效果；第二篇利用不對稱共整合模型(asymmetric cointegration)分析中國大陸股市之間長期均衡關係；第三篇根據追蹤資料共整合檢定(panel Cointegration test)檢定購買力平價說。 第一篇文章利用門檻向量自我迴歸模型分析Nasdaq股市對台灣、日本與韓國股市不對稱的訊息傳遞效果。實證結果發現，當Nasdaq市場處於下跌狀態時（壞消息狀態），Nasdaq市場干擾對亞洲股市的衝擊較大，反之，當Nasdaq市場處於上漲狀態時（好消息狀態）時，Nasdaq市場干擾對亞洲股市的衝擊較小，而在壞消息狀態時，Nasdaq指數大跌對Jasdaq指數與Kosdaq指數的衝擊效果大於Nasdaq指數大漲的效果，Nasdaq指數小跌所產生的衝擊與小漲所產生的效果具有對稱性。 第二篇文章以Enders and Siklos(2001)不對稱共整合模型探討，中國大陸上海及深圳A股與B股股價指數之間長期不對稱的均衡關係，實證結果發現，在1992年10月至2001年8月，上海A股指數與深圳A股指數之間具有不對稱共整合關係，且當上海A股處於好消息狀態（股市上漲）時，其誤差修正項的調整速度較壞消息狀態（股市下跌）之下為快，此外，上海A股指數與深圳A股指數之間其有雙向的連動關係。在B股開放之後，則是深圳股市A股與B股指數存在不對稱共整合關係，同時Granger因果關係檢定顯示深圳B股指數領先A股指數。 第三篇文章利用Pedroni(2001)追蹤資料共整合檢定，探討大麥克漢堡價格與CPI兩種不同的價格指數用於檢定購買力平價說的有效性，根據14個國家1992-1999年的追蹤資料得到的實證結果顯示，以名目匯率作為被解釋變數，則大麥克漢堡價格與CPI都是支持PPP假說，然而若以相對價格為被解釋變數，則只有大麥克漢堡價格是支持PPP假說，而以CPI為基礎的PPP假說則是無法得到支持。除此之外，本文的實證結論並不受生產力差異的影響。 關鍵字：門檻向量自我迴歸模型、不對稱共整合、追蹤資料共整合、股票市場、購買力平價說 / This dissertation includes three financial applications using time series methods. The first article investigates the asymmetric effects of information transmissions in stock markets using threshold vector autoregression model. The second article uses asymmetric cointegration to study the long-run equilibium relationships among Chinese stock markets. The third article uses panal cointegration to test purchasing-power parity (PPP). Firstly, we examines the asymmetric effects of information transmissions of Nasdaq stock market on Taiwan, Japan, and Korea stock markets by using a threshold vector autoregressive model. And also, we check whether Nasdaq stock market have different impacts on organized stock exchanges (including TAIEX, NIKKEI 225 Index, Korea Composite Index) and over-the-counter markets (including Taisdaq Index, Jasdaq Index, and Kosdaq Index) or not. The empirical results indicate that negative innovations in Nasdaq market (bad news regime) have large influence on Asia stock markets. Particularly, the positive innovations in Nasdaq market (good news regime) have small influence on Asia stock market. The large negative innovations in Nasdaq market have great influence than those of the large positive innovations on Jasdaq Index and Kosdaq Index in bad news regime. The second article uses Enders and Sikios's (2001) asymmetric cointegration model to investigate the long-run asymmetric equihbrium relationships. The empirical results find that there exits an asymmetric cointegrated relationship between Shanghai A share index and Shenzhen A share index for the period from October 1992 to August 2001. The adjustment parameters of error correction term at Shanghai A share market are larger in bad-news regime than those in good-news regime. This result reveals investors at Shanghai possess over-reaction behavior on news of stock market. Moreover, there exists a bi-directional Granger causality between Shanghai A share index and Shenzhen A share index. We find there exists an asymmetric cointegrated relationship between Shenzhen A share index and Shenzhen B share index after 19 February 2001. Furthermore, the Shenzhen B share index leads Shenzhen A share index after 19 February 2001. The third article uses Pedroni's (2001) panel cointegration test to examine the validity of PPP hypothesis by two different price indces, i.e. Big Mac prices and CPI. Our panel observations include 14 countries from 1992 to 1999. The empirical evidence indicates Big Mac PPP and CPI PPP is supposed if we use nominal exchange rate as the explanatory variable. Nevertheless, the Big Mac PPP is valid but CPI PPP not valid if we use price level as the explanatory variable. Moveover, our concludtion does not influenced by productivity bias. Keywords: threshold vector autoregression, asymmetric cointegration, panel cointegration, stock markets, purchasing-power parity

本論文的研究主軸圍繞於自我迴歸模型的估計與推論上。文獻上自我迴歸模型的估計多直接採用最小平方法, 但此估計方式卻有兩個缺點:(一)當序列具單根時,最小平方估計式的漸近分配為非正規型態,因此檢定時需透過電腦模擬得到臨界值;(二)最小平方估計式雖具一致性,但卻有嚴重的有限樣本偏誤問題。有鑑於此,我們提出一種「二階差分轉換估計式」,並證明該估計式的偏誤遠低於前述最小平方估計式,且在序列為粧定與具單根的環境下具有相同的漸近常態分配。此外,二階差分轉換估計式相當適合應用於固定效果追蹤資料模型,而據以形成的追蹤資料單根檢定在序列較短的情況下仍有不錯的檢定力。 本論文共分四章,茲分別簡單說明如下: 第1章為緒論,回顧文獻上估計與推論自我回歸模型時的問題,並說明本論文的研究目標。估計自我迴歸模型的傳統方式是直接採取最小平方法,但在序列具單根的情況下由於訊息不隨時間消逝而快速累積,使估計式的收斂速度高於序列為恒定的情況。不過,這也導致最小平方估計式的漸近分配為非標準型態,並使得進行假設檢定前必須先透過電腦模擬來獲得臨界值。其次,最小平方估計式雖具一致性,但在有限樣本下卻是偏誤的。實證上, 樣本點不多是研究者時常面臨的窘境,並使得小樣本偏誤程度格外嚴重。本章中透過對前述問題形成因素的瞭解,說明解決與改善的方法,亦即我們提出的「二階差分轉換估計式」。 第2章主要目的在於推導二階差分轉換估計式之有限樣本偏誤。我們亦推導了多階差分自我迴歸模型下二階段最小平方估計式(two stage least squares, 2SLS)與 Phillips andHan (2008)採用的一階差分轉換估計式之偏誤,以同時進行比較。本章理論與模擬結果皆顯示,一階與二階差分轉換估許式與2SLS之 $T^{−1}$ 階偏誤程度皆低於以最小平方法估計原始準模型(level model)的偏誤,其中 T 為時間序列長度。另外,一階差分轉換估計式與二階差分轉換估計式在 $T^{−1}$ 階偏誤上,分別與一階和二階差分模型下2SLS相同,但兩估計式的相對偏誤程度則因自我相關係數的大小而互有優劣。同時,我們發現估計高於二階的差分模型對小樣本偏誤並無法有更進一步的改善。最後,即使在樣本點不多的情況下,本章所推導的偏誤理論對於實際偏誤仍有良好的近似能力。 第3章主要目的在於發展二階差分轉換估計式之漸近理論。與 Phillips and Han (2008) 採用之一階差分轉換估計式相似的是,該估計式在序列為恒定與具單根的情況下收斂速度相同,並有漸近常態分配的優點。值得注意的是, 二階差分轉換估計式的漸近分配為 N(0,2),不受任何未知參數的影響。另外,當序列呈現正自我相關時,二階差分轉換估計式相較於一階差分轉換估計式具有較小的漸近變異數,進而使得據以形成的檢定統計量有較佳的對立假設偵測能力。最後, 誠如 Phillips and Han (2008) 所述,由於差分過程消除了模型中的截距項,使得此類估計方法在固定效果的動態追蹤資料模型(dynamic panel data model with fixed effect) 具相當的發展與應用價值。 本論文第4 章進一步將二階差分轉換估計式推展至固定效果的動態追蹤資料模型。文獻上估計此種模型通常利用差分來消除固定效果後,再以一般動差法 (generalized method of moments, GMM) 進行估計。然而,這樣的估計方式在序列為近單根或具單根時卻面臨了弱工具變數(weak instrument)的問題,並導致嚴重的估計偏誤。相反的,差分轉換估計式所利用的動差條件在近單根與單根的情況下仍然穩固,因此在小樣本下的估計偏誤相當輕微(甚至無偏誤)。另外,我們證明了不論序列長度(T )或橫斷面規模(n)趨近無窮大,差分轉換估計式皆有漸近常態分配的性質。與單一序列時相同的是,我們提出的二階差分轉換估計式在序列具正自我相關性時的漸近變異數較一階差分轉換估計式小;受惠於此,利用二階差分轉換估計式所建構的檢定具有較佳的檢力。值得注意的是,由於二階差分轉換估計式在單根的情況下仍有漸近常態分配的性質,我們得以直接利用該漸近理論建構追蹤資料單根檢定。電腦模擬結果發現,在小 T 大 n 的情況下,其檢力優於文獻上常用的 IPS 檢定(Im et al., 1997, 2003)。 / This thesis deals with estimation and inference in autoregressive models. Conventionally, the autoregressive models estimated by the least squares (LS) procedure may be subject to two shortcomings. First, the asymptotic distribution of the LS estimates for autoregressive coefficient is discontinuous at unity. Test statistics based on the LS estimates thus follow nonstandard distributions, and the critical values obtained need to rely on Monte Carlo techniques. Secondly, as is well known, the LS estimates of autoregressive models are biased in finite samples. This bias could be substantial and leads to serious size distortion for the test statistics built on the estimates and forecast errors. In this thesis,we consider a simple newmethod ofmoments estimator, termed the “transformed second-difference” (hereafter TSD) estimator, that is without the aforementioned problems, and has many useful applications. Notably, when applied to dynamic panel models, the associated panel unit root tests shares a great power advantage over the existing ones, for the cases with very short time span. The thesis consists of 4 chapters, which are briefly described as follows. 1. Introduction: Overview and Purpose This chapter first reviews the literature and states the purpose of this dissertation. We discuss the sources of problems in estimating autoregressive models with the conventional method. The motivation to estimate the autoregressive series with multiple-difference models, instead of the conventional level model, is provided. We then propose a new estimator, the TSD estimator, which can avoid (fully or partly) the drawbacks of the LS method, and highlight its finite-sample and asymptotic properties. 2. The Bias of 2SLSs and transformed difference estimators in Multiple-Difference AR(1) Models In this chapter, we derive approximate bias for the TSD estimator. For comparisons, the corresponding bias of the two stage least squares estimators (2SLS) in multiple-difference AR(1) models and the transformed first-difference (TFD) estimator proposed by Chowdhurry (1987) are also given as by-products. We find that: (i) All the estimators considered are much less biased than the LS ones with the level regression; (ii)The difference method can be exploited to reduce the bias only up to the order of difference 2; and (iii) The bias of the TFD and TSD estimators share the same order at $O(T^{-1})$ as that of 2SLSs. However, to the extent of bias reductions, neither the 2 considered transformed difference estimators shows a uniform dominance over the entire parameter space. Our simulation evidence lends credible supports to our bias approximation theory. 3. Gaussian Inference in AR(1) Time Series with or without a Unit Root The goal of the chapter is to develop an asymptotic theory of the TSD estimator. Similar to that of the TFD estimator shown by Phillips and Han (2008), the TSDestimator is found to have Gaussian asymptotics for all values of ρ ∈ (−1, 1] with $\sqrt{T}$ rate of convergence, where ρ is the autoregressive coefficient of interest and T is the time span. Specifically, the limit distribution of the TSD estimator is N(0,2) for all possible values of ρ. In addition, the asymptotic variance of the TSD estimator is smaller than that of the TFD estimator for the cases with ρ > 0, and the corresponding t -test thus exhibits superior power to the TFD-based one. 4. Estimation and Inference with Moment Methods for Dynamic Panels with Fixed Effects This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the TSD estimator when applying to to dynamic panel datamodels. We find again that the TSD estimator displays a standard Gaussian limit, with a convergence rate of $\sqrt{nT}$ for all values of ρ, including unity, irrespective of how n or T approaches infinity. Particularly, the TSD estimator makes use of moment conditions that are strong for all values of ρ, and therefore can completely avoid the weak instrument problem for ρ in the vicinity of unity, and has virtually no finite sample bias. As in the time series case, the asymptotic variance of the TSD estimator is smaller than that of the TFD estimator of Han and Phillips (2009) when ρ > 0 and T > 3, and the corresponding t -ratio test is thus more capable of unveiling the true data generating process. Furthermore, the asymptotic theory can be applied directly to panel unit root test. Our simulation results reveal that the TSD-based unit root test is more powerful than the widely used IPS test (Im et al, 1997, 2003) when n is large and T is small.

研究目的：本研究旨在探究高功能自閉症類群障礙（High-Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder, HFASD）兒童基本的運動知覺、動物生物性運動知覺、與人類生物性運動知覺之偏好注視表現與注意力時間歷程，逐步澄清HFASD兒童的生物性運動知覺表現與社會缺損的關聯性。此外，針對自閉症類群障礙的異質性，進一步探討HFASD兒童具智能優異特質者之生物性運動知覺表現。 研究方法：本研究共招募50名7至10歲之HFASD兒童與25名配對生理年齡與智力之TD兒童。本研究採偏好注視作業，以光點呈現三種運動刺激對比的視覺配對情境：（1）基本運動知覺：物體運動配對散亂運動；（2）動物生物性運動知覺：動物運動配對物體運動；（3）人類生物性運動知覺：人類運動配對動物運動。透過眼動追蹤技術測量受試兒童觀看各運動刺激之凝視時間比例與時間歷程之凝視可能性。研究亦涵蓋智力、症狀嚴重度、及適應行為評估。 研究結果：基本運動知覺方面，TD兒童與HFASD 兒童皆對散亂運動具偏好反應。生物性運動知覺方面，整體來說，TD與HFASD兒童皆較偏好動物與人類運動。時間歷程分析顯示，HFASD與TD兒童在相同的時間窗格對動物與人類運動產生偏好興趣。此外，在動物生物性運動知覺中，於時間歷程早期階段，HFASD兒童偏好動物運動之程度低於TD兒童，且偏好動物運動的程度與社會溝通缺損具相關性，於晚期階段，兩組偏好動物運動的程度無顯著差異。在人類生物性運動知覺中，於時間歷程早期階段，HFASD兒童偏好人類運動的程度與TD兒童相當，隨時間遞增，TD兒童維持對人類運動的偏好興趣，然而，HFASD兒童對人類運動的偏好興趣則逐步遞減，至晚期階段，HFASD兒童偏好人類運動的程度顯著低於TD兒童，且與自閉症狀具相關性。考量本研究HFASD兒童樣本之異質性，結果指出智能優異的HFASD兒童對動物生物性運動的偏好程度與TD兒童相當，但在人類生物性運動知覺中，智能優異組與非智能優異組皆隨時間遞增對人類運動的偏好興趣則逐步遞減。 總結：研究結果指出，HFASD兒童對生物性運動的偏好興趣及產生偏好的速度與TD兒童無明顯差異。但HFASD兒童對人類生物性運動偏好興趣的持續度較TD兒童低落，且不因認知優勢具補償作用。整體而言，顯示HFASD兒童的生物性運動知覺表現型態在反映其社會缺損上具有參考價值。本研究也進一步探討臨床應用、研究限制與未來的研究方向。 / Purposes: This study investigated the preferential attention and attentional processing on the basic motion perception, animal biological motion perception, and human biological motion perception in children with High-Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder (HFASD). It aimed to explore the processing of biological motion perception in children with HFASD and the association to social deficit. Moreover, concerning the heterogeneity within ASD, the study examined the biological motion perception in intellectually gifted children within HFASD. Method: Fifty children aged 7 to 10 years with HFASD and twenty-five children with typically development（TD）matched on age and IQ were recruited. The current study utilized preferential looking paradigm and motion point-light displays, demonstrating three visual comparison: (1) basic motion perception: object motion paired with scrambled motion; (2) animal biological motion perception: animal motion paired with object motion; (3) human biological motion: human motion paired with animal motion. Eye-tracking techniques were applied to measure proportion of dwell time and time course of fixation probability on each motion stimuli. Cognitive function, symptom severity, and adaptive function were also measured. Result: In basic motion perception, children with TD and HFASD preferentially attend toward scrambled motion. In biological motion perception, generally, children with TD and HFASD preferentially attend toward animal motion and human motion. Time-course analysis revealed that children with TD and HFASD attended toward animal motion and human motion at the same time window. Moreover, in animal biological motion perception, children with HFASD showed lower preferential interest in animal motion than children with TD at the early stage of time course, and there were no significnant difference between groups at the late stage of time course. The results also found that the level of preference for animal motion was associated with the severity of social communication. In human biological motion perception, children with TD and HFASD showed similar level of preferential interest in human motion at the early stage of time course; afterthat, children with TD matained preferential interest in human motion across time, but children with HFASD reduced preferential interest in human motion across time. At the late stage of time course, children with HFASD showed significantly lower level preferential interest in human motion than children with TD, and it was associated to symptom severity. Concerning the heterogeneity within the study sample of HFASD, results indicated that there was no difference on the level of preferential interest in animal motion between intellectually gifted HFASD (IG-HFASD) and TD group; however, in human biological motion perception, IG-HFASD and nonIG-HFASD group reduced preferential interest in human motion across time course compared to TD group. Conclusion: Findings suggested that children with HFASD exhibit the equivalent preferential interest and speed of attending to biological motion as did TD children. However, children with HFASD reduced referential interest in human biological motion across time course compared to TD children, and not influenced by the intellectually gifted advantage with compensation. The results implicated that biological motion perception may play an important role to understanding the social deficit in children with ASD. Theoretical and clinical implications of the study were discussed.

近年來穿戴相關發展越來越蓬勃，特別是在虛擬-實境的綜合藝術表 演中，例如: 電影「猩球崛起」。然而大部分虛擬實境的綜合內容是 基於腳本預先錄製好的，而且演員需要大量的練習，使表演能夠完美 演出。此外，如果我們想要在兩人的相對方向定位上有特殊效果，那 麼預先錄製的的方法是不合適的。解決這個問題的一個方法是，使用 高品質的相機偵測身體的姿勢或位置。但是精准度常會受限於光線或 是障礙物。 本篇論文中，我們提出一個即時相對方向定位方法，這方法使用無線 可穿戴式設備解決這個問題。我們結合BLE 所發送的Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI)與IMU 感測器資訊，來追蹤兩個表演者的相對方向定位的位置。但是RSSI 資料有波動與不穩定性、IMU 會引起 累積的誤差。我們發明了「可靠程度」的RSSI 量測概念，並且把這 概念運用在IMU 定期校正上。我們實驗的情況是，兩個人的舞蹈來 驗證準確性，結果是令人滿意的。我們還使用Unity 來實踐人體骨架， 以便與兩個舞者動作做比較。在未來，我們開發的方案可以用於藝術 表演，使內容更豐富，更具互動性。 / In recent years, wearable-related applications are flourishing, especially in virtual-real integrated art performance, such as “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”. However, most of the virtual-real integrated contents are pre-recorded based on the script, and the performer needs a lot of practice to make the integration perfect. Moreover, if we want to make special effect based on the relative directional positions of two performers, the pre-recorded approach is not suitable. One way to tackle this problem is to use the high-quality camera to detect the body posture or position.But the accuracy is usually limited in light intensity or obstacles. In this thesis, we propose a real-time relative directional positioning approach using wireless wearable devices to solve this problem. We use Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) of BLE, combined with IMU sensors to track two performers’ relative directional positions. The RSSI fluctuates and the IMU causes accumulated errors. We invent the concept of “reliable level” of RSSI measures to periodically correct the IMU errors. We experiment the scenario of two-person dance to validate the accuracy, and the result is satisfactory. We also use Unity to real-time render the human skeleton for comparison with the two dancers’ motion.In the future, our developed scheme can be used in the art performance to make the content richer and more interactive.

當資料屬於類別型的長期追蹤資料（Longitudinal categorical data）時，除了可以透過廣義估計方程式（General estimate equation, GEE）來求解模型參數估計值外，潛在移轉分析（Latent transition analysis, LTA）法也是一種可行的資料分析方法。若資料的期數不多，也可以選擇將資料適度分群後使用羅吉斯迴歸分析（Logistic regression）法。當探討的反應變數為二元（Binary）型態，且觀察對象於每一期提供多個測量變數值的情況之下，廣義估計方程式與羅吉斯迴歸分析法的使用，文獻上常見先將所有的測量變數值加總後，以「中位數」作為分類的切割點。不同於以上兩種方法，潛在移轉分析法則是直接使用原始資料來取得觀察對象的潛在狀態相關訊息，因此與前二者的作法不同，可能導致後續的各項分析結果有所差異存在。 為了能夠了解造成中位數分類法與移轉分析法差異的可能因素，我們架構在潛在移轉分析法的模型下，以不同的參數設定來進行電腦模擬，比較各參數條件下的兩分類方法差異。結果發現各潛在狀態下的測量變數反應機率形式、第一期潛在狀態的組成比例等皆會對兩分類方法是否具有相同分類有所影響。另外，透過分析「青少年媒體使用與健康生活調查」的實際資料得知，潛在移轉分析會將大部分的觀察對象歸屬於「網路成癮」，而中位數分類法則是將大部分的觀察對象歸屬於「無網路成癮」。此外，可以注意到「沮喪」、「線上情色每星期平均使用天數」、及「父母相處狀況」這幾個控制變數與各分組結果的關聯性，於上述三種資料分析方法中有所不同。 / Several methods can be used to analyze longitudinal categorical data, as among them Latent Transition Analysis (LTA), and Generalized Linear Models estimated by Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) probably the most popular. In addition, if the number of periods is two, then with certain grouping of data, the Logistic Regression can also be applied to perform the analyses. When there are more than one manifest response variable for each study subject, LTA is able to classify the subjects in terms of the original manifest response variables and proceeds with necessary analyses. On the other hand, GEE method and Logistic Regression lack the flexibility, and require certain transformation to transform the manifest response variables into a categorical response variable first. One common way to form a binary response is to sum all manifest variables, and then taking median as a cut-point. In this study, we explore the differences of the classification resulted from LTA directly and using median as a cut-point through simulations. An empirical study is also provided to illustrate the classification differences, and the differences on the subsequent analyses using LTA, GEE method, and Logistic Regression approach.

個人學習動機向來被認為是影響學習成就的重要因素，但是家庭也對學生的學習提供特定的脈絡條件。因此，在探討學生學習成就與時間發展效應之時，若能同時納入個人與家庭因素，並探討其間的交互作用，將能對於兩者的影響力進行客觀的檢驗。本研究的目的主要在探討臺灣青少年學習成就的成長軌跡變化型態，以及家庭文化資本與個人學習動機對於學習成就成長軌跡的影響機制。其中學生的文化資本是來自家庭父母所傳遞下來的先天條件，係屬於一種結構因素；而學生的學習動機則是來自個人後天的努力與學習的正向動力，係屬於一種個人因素。具體而言，本研究目的分為三個主要的研究議題，首先，根據Bourdieu（1977）的文化資本概念，以及Bandura（1977, 1986, 1997）與McInerney和McInerney（1994）的學習動機觀點，探討這兩個重要解釋變數對於各波學生學習成就的影響情形；再者，根據Sternberg（1985, 1986, 1988）的智力三元論觀點探討學生學習成就的成長變化情形；最後，探討文化資本與學習動機對於學生學習成就成長軌跡的交互作用效果。 研究資料取自臺灣教育長期追蹤資料庫（Taiwan Educational Panel Survey）的四波追蹤樣本，以潛在成長曲線模式進行次級資料分析。研究結果發現：1.臺灣青少年的學習成就成長軌跡呈現非線性的遞增漸緩的成長曲線；學生在學習成就的起始能力與成長速率存在個別差異，且學生的起始能力與成長速率具有正向的關係，顯示隨著時間的遞移，起始能力高與低的學生，其能力的差距會逐漸擴大。2.文化資本與學習動機對於學習成就成長軌跡的影響未具交互作用，顯示個人的學習動機並不能減緩或反轉文化資本對於學生學習成就的影響。3.文化資本與學習動機對於學生學習成就的主要效果，在學習的早期階段，存在正向的影響效果，但影響力會隨著時間而逐漸降低。4.文化資本係影響學生學習成就成長軌跡的重要因素，文化資本的豐富與不足會加劇學生學習成就的差距，因而造成強者恆強、弱者恆弱的「馬太效應」現象。最後，依據上述的研究發現，分別提出教育實務上、未來研究與對資料庫研究的建議，以供相關教育人員與研究者參考。 / Individual motivation has always been recognized as the key factor for influencing the students’ learning achievement. However, the family of the students is also considered as an important contextual determinant. As a result, in order to analyze the students’ learning achievement against the temporal effect of time, it is imperative that the factor of family background should be included for understanding the interaction of the factors on the learning achievement. The primary goal of this study is to inquiry the patterns the development and change of learning achievement growth trajectory of the Taiwan adolescent. Particularly, this study explores the effects of family cultural capital and learning motivation on adolescent learning achievement growth trajectory. By definition, family cultural capital which is a structural factor refers to the inherent characteristics that are passed down from the students’ parents. On the other hand, the students’ learning motivation which is a personal factor refers to the extrinsic factor that arises from later days’ hard work and positive learning efforts. In terms of research objectives, this study tries to integrate the Bourdieu’s (1977) perspective of cultural capital, and Bandura’s (1977, 1986, 1997) as well as McInerney and McInerney’s (1994) concept of learning motivation into a framework for examining the effects of the learning growth of different waves of students. Secondly, by applying the Sternberg’s (1985, 1986, 1988) triarchic theory of intelligence to examine the changes of the students’ learning growth trajectory. Finally, to analyze the interaction between the students’ cultural capital and learning motivation on their learning achievement trajectory. The data using in this study was selected from the longitudinal database Taiwan Educational Panel Survey (TEPS). A total of four waves of students’ data were downloaded and analyzed as secondary data using the latent growth curve modeling (LGCM). Major results of the study were followed: First, the learning achievement trajectory of Taiwan adolescents’ seemed to be gradually growing in a non-linear incremental curve; it also shown that at the beginning the students’ learning achievement displayed significant individual differences. Likewise results also revealed a positive relationship between the students’ initial status and growth rate of learning achievement. That is, as the passing of time, the initial status of learning achievement affected the growth of disparity among the students. Second, there were no significant interaction effect between the students’ cultural capital and learning motivation on the learning achievement growth trajectory. This means that the students’ learning motivation cannot moderate the effects of cultural capital towards the learning achievement. Third, results revealed that the main effects of the students’ cultural capital and learning motivation on the learning achievement were occurred on the early stages of learning. A significant positive effect was found in these stages, however, the positive effect gradually decreased along with the passing of time. Fourth, it was found that the minimal effect of students’ cultural capital on their learning achievement growth trajectory was determined by the abundance or deficiency of the former. The amount of cultural capital also determined the distance of the students’ gap. In other words, a phenomenon of the Mathew effect was supported; wherein the students who are in a strong stand will get stronger later on, while the weak shall get weaker. Besides the findings mentioned above, recommendations for further study and limitations of the present study were given at the end.