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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
81

中國大陸城市化對住宅價格的影響 ——基於2003-2011年中國不同規模城市追蹤資料的實證檢驗 / Impacts of urbanization on residential housing prices in Chinese cities

莊凱融, Rong, Zhuang Kai Unknown Date (has links)
城市化意味着城市的經濟結構、社會結構和空間結構變遷。隨着中國大陸城市化的推進,城市人口遷移、建成區面積增長,城市發展質量逐步提高,而同期內城市商品住宅價格亦呈現普遍而明顯的上漲趨勢。 過去雖有許多國內外文獻對全國城市商品住宅價格的影響因素進行了探討,但少有文獻從城市化的層面着眼進行研究;在部分集中討論城市化效應的文獻中,亦存在以省域代替城市作爲研究對象,以及採用橫截面數據進行實證研究,未能體現不同城市化和社會經濟發展階段之變動趨勢的缺憾。 有鑑於此,本文使用中國大陸2003年至2011年不同規模城市的相關追蹤資料,以“人口城市化”“土地城市化”和城市發展質量優化作爲城市化的主要體現,用從業人口、建設用地面積、房地產開發投資額等一系列指標作爲自變數構建追蹤資料固定效應模型,分析城市化對不同規模城市商品住宅價格的影響,探究中國大陸社會經濟重要發展來源的城市化能否繼續維持城市商品住宅市場的穩定。實證結果顯示,城市化發展對城市商品住宅價格上漲的貢獻明顯,而人口城市化的作用較之土地城市化更爲顯著;大城市和中小城市在城市化發展過程中商品住宅價格影響因素亦有所不同,城市發展中由政府主導的城市土地開發利用與基礎設施建設應集約化發展,土地城市化必須與人口城市化以及城市發展質量提升相互協調。 / Urbanization means changes of cities ‘economic structure, social structure and spatial structure. With the development of Chinese urbanization, the urban population and construction land area is growing, the urban development quality is improving gradually, in the same period city residential housing prices also presents common and obvious rising trend. In the past, although there were many domestic and external literature focusing on the influence factors of the national urban residential housing prices, but there were few literature based the study on the impact of urbanization; many of literatures in which the urbanization effect discussed, also taken provincial data as the research object instead of city , using cross-sectional data for empirical research, so failed to reflect changes in different stages of urbanization and social and economic development trend. In light of this, this article refer to mainland China from 2003 to 2011, 213 level panel data, related to "land urbanization" and "population urbanization" quality optimization as the main embodiment of urbanization, taking urban working population, construction land area, real estate investment and a series of indicators as independent variables to construct panel fixed effects model, in order to analyze the effect of urbanization on the urban residential property prices. We expect to explore whether if mainland China's urbanization, which is a source of important social and economic development of the nation, will continue to maintain the stability of the urban residential market. Empirical results indicates that the influence of urbanization on city residential housing price is evident, besides population urbanization plays a more important role than land urbanization. In the process of urbanization, the influential factors of residential housing price varying in metropolis and small cities, therefore development of urban land dominated by local government ought to realize intensification, and land urbanization should be coordinated with population urbanization and city development quality.
82

貪腐程度對中國地方政府財政透明度的影響─以追蹤平滑轉換迴歸模型分析 / The Influence of Corruption on the Fiscal Transparency in China─An Application of Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

王鈺琪, Wang, Yu Chi Unknown Date (has links)
財政透明度為建立一個良好政府治理的基礎。近年來隨著中國大陸高速的經濟發展,中央政府相關單位亦注意到財政公開的重要性。然而,目前中國財政資訊仍處於不透明的狀態。另一方面,中國大陸貪腐現象無所不在,內部腐敗行為更是日益猖獗,因此如何打擊貪腐、提升中國地方政府的財政透明度,就成為迫在眉睫的問題。 因此,本文的研究目的主要探討中國貪腐程度對地方政府財政透明度的影響:第一,瞭解當今社會對於財政透明度的提倡與國際規範;第二,考量貪汙與財政透明度之間可能存在非線性關係,建構一個追蹤平滑轉換迴歸模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model,PSTR),瞭解中國大陸財政資訊的公開情形是否因各地區貪腐程度的不同而有所差異;最後,對於中國大陸嚴重的貪腐與財政透明度的關聯做深入探討,以期能為中國大陸財政不透明與不重視情況提出政策建議。
83

死亡突顯性對注意力的影響-以文化性線索為例 / The effect of Mortality Salience on Attention-An example of Cultural Cues

何華府, He, Hua Fu Unknown Date (has links)
根據恐懼管理理論(Terror Management Theory, 1986)人們會適時地管理死亡想法的威脅,故Pyszczynski、Greenberg及Solomon(1999)依據此理論提出了一套雙元歷程模式來解釋人們的防衛方式:近端防衛與遠端防衛。在遠端防衛中文化世界觀尤為重要,在過去的西方研究之中,發現人們常以對自身文化世界觀持正向或偏好的態度,來防衛死亡想法的威脅;然而這樣的現象卻在亞洲研究中難以得到驗證,因此本研究的目的即在於重新檢驗文化世界觀的防衛方式。本研究操弄參與者的死亡想法,並藉由分心作業的方式,使其死亡想法掉入意識邊陲之中,以探究遠端防衛的本質。本研究除了以偏好的評估作為依變項外,且從認知的注意力面向出發,探討文化世界觀與防衛死亡想法之間的關係。本研究設計兩個實驗:實驗一以視覺搜尋作業的派典進行研究,以對自身文化的偏好、正確率與反應時間當作依變項。結果發現當參與者進行遠端防衛時,會對於與自身文化有關的線索,表現出較高的正確率,但在對自身文化的偏好,與反應時間的變項上,未能發現有顯著差異。實驗二以眼動追蹤儀器當作研究工具,並以眼動指標中首次凝視位置的數量,以及凝視時間作為依變項。結果發現當參與者進行遠端防衛時,會對於與自身文化有關的線索,表現出較長的凝視時間,但在首次凝視位置的數量上,亦未能發現有顯著差異。因此,綜合以上兩個實驗,本研究並未能完全支持文化世界觀的遠端防衛效果。 / According to terror management theory (1986), people can manage the threat from death thought. Thus, Pyszczynski, Greenberg, & Solomon (1999) proposed a dual-process model to explain how people defend the death. There are two defense routes: the proximal defense and the distal defense. The culture-worldview is an important function in the distal defense. In the western research, it was found that people were more positive or preferred to self-culture-worldview. However, there are mixed findings in the eastern research. In order to investigate the distal defense mechanism, this study manipulated participants’ death thought, and let the thought drop into the unconscious level via a distracting task. Furthermore, this study examined the relationship between the culture-worldview and the death defense from attentional paradigms. We conducted two experiments. In the first experiment, we adopted the visual search paradigm, and the dependent variables were self-cultural preference, reaction time and the rate of accuracy. We found it was more accurate when participants were asked to search the self-related cultural cue after reminding one’s death comparing to those are not reminding about death. But they were no significant difference in the self-cultural preference and reaction time. In the second experiment, we adopted the eye-tracker as the instrument, and the dependent variables were the index of number of first fixation and the duration of fixations. We found the fixation duration was longer for the self-related cultural cues than for the non-self-related cultural cues when participants being reminded about one’s death. But it was no significant difference in the number of first fixation. So, through these two experiments we found an inconsistent result in the distal defense.
84

大學圖書館網站首頁讀者視覺注意力之眼動 分析研究 / Assessing User’s Visual Attention on University Library Web Page with Eye Tracking Technology

林惠卿, Lin, Hui Ching Unknown Date (has links)
隨著網際網路的普及,促使大學圖書館紛紛建立網站服務讀者。目前國內各大專院校圖書館網站的建置已達到百分之百,網頁成為行銷各校學術資源最直接快速的管道,而圖書館網頁也利用廣告吸引讀者對於活動訊息的注意。目前國內大學圖書館網站中,並非每個學校均設有廣告來傳播重要的訊息給讀者,即使擁有廣告也是呈現位置不一。在設計上,大學圖書館網站首頁廣告應與整體版面搭配,以引起讀者視覺關注,並達透過廣告成功行銷圖書館資源與活動的目的;而以圖書館行銷的角度考量,惟有促使圖書館網站首頁的廣告被有效注意與理解,才能達到成功行銷廣告內容的目的。 本研究採用真實驗研究法(true-experiment research method),結合網頁視覺設計相關理論對於讀者目光注意力的吸引原則,以及視覺元素之間如何影響讀者的視覺行為為基礎,設計出三種內容相同但廣告放置於不同位置之圖書館網站首頁,比較讀者視覺注意力行為的差異,並以國立中正大學大學部學生五十四名為研究對象,利用「眼球追蹤儀器」(eye tracker)收集受試者眼動指標資料,並進行廣告傳達內容之記憶效應檢測,以及實驗後輔以問卷調查與訪談,探討大學圖書館網站首頁的廣告位置對於讀者視覺注意力及記憶效應的影響。 研究結果發現,讀者在三種不同廣告圖片位置之眼動訊息、記憶效應、瀏覽順序、整體印象滿意度均具有顯著差異。研究結果歸納如下: 一、讀者在廣告置上版面具有較多的注視次數,但是在廣告置左版面則具有較多的視覺停駐。 二、讀者在三種不同廣告位置版面之廣告內容的記憶效應具有顯著差異,廣告圖片位置置左版面具有最佳之記憶效應。 三、讀者在廣告置左版面之廣告內容的記憶效應與眼動指標之「平均注視時間」具有顯著關聯性,其他兩種版面則均無顯著關聯。 四、讀者在三種不同廣告位置版面之其他讀者服務項目所定義興趣區的眼動指標具有顯著差異,廣告置左版面讀者服務項目具有較為平均之視覺分布。 五、讀者在三種不同廣告位置版面之瀏覽順序具有差異,廣告置左版面之廣告較能引起讀者的優先注視。 六、讀者在三種不同廣告位置版面之圖書館網站首頁的整體印象具有顯著差異,廣告置左版面獲得較高的評價;其中版面在「簡單的」、「不散亂的」、「可靠信任的」、「引人注目的」等項目上均顯著高於廣告置右與廣告置上版面。 綜合本研究之研究結果,建議圖書館應善用置左廣告位置提升圖書館行銷相關訊息之目的。此外,圖書館網站首頁應重視視覺元素編排對於版面整體印象的提升效應。圖書館網頁編排也應善用接近性與相似性原則,使得版面呈現具一致性。 / The popularity of the Internet has pushed university libraries establishing websites to serve readers. The establishment of domestic university library websites has currently reached 100%, web pages become the most direct and rapid channels to market the academic resources, and advertisement on the library web pages is utilized for attracting readers’ attention to activities. So far, not all domestic university library websites are established advertisement for propagating important information to readers; even though there is advertisement, the presentation positions are distinct. In terms of the design, advertisement on the index page of a university library website should match the entire layout so as to appeal readers’ visual saliency and successfully market the library resources and activities. In consideration of library marketing, merely advertisement on the index page of a library website being effectively noticed and comprehended could the successful marketing be achieved. With true-experiment research method, the visual design of web pages to attract readers’ attention in this study is integrated with the effects of visual elements on readers’ visual behaviors to design three identical advertising contents which are placed in different positions on the index page of the library website in order to compare the difference in readers’ visual attention. Furthermore, 54 undergraduate students in National Chung Cheng University are selected as the research participants. An Eye Tracker is utilized for collecting the participants’ eye-tracking indicators, and the memory effect of the advertisement is tested. Furthermore, the questionnaire survey and interviews are proceeded to discuss the effects of advertising position on the index page of a university library website on readers’ visual attention and memory effect. The research findings show that the readers present significant difference on the eye-tracking information, memory effect, browsing order, and overall satisfaction of the three advertisement positions. The research results are concluded as follows. 1.The readers appear more attention on top-layout advertisement, but stay the vision more on left-layout advertisement. 2.The readers reveal remarkable difference on memory effect of advertisement among three advertisement positions, where the optimal memory effect appears on the left-layout advertisement. 3.The readers show significant correlations between memory effect of left-layout advertisement and the eye-tracking indicator of Average Fixation Time, while the rest two layouts do not show notable correlations. 4.The readers show remarkable difference on the eye-tracking indicator of interests defined in other reader service items of three advertisement layouts; the reader service items on the left-layout advertisement appear more average visual distribution. 5.The readers reveal distinct browsing orders on the three advertisement positions; the left-layout advertisement could better appeal the readers’ prior attention. 6.The readers show significantly different impression on the index page of the library website with three advertising positions; the left-layout advertisement acquires higher appraisal, where the items of Simple, Not Disordered, Reliable, Attention Attractive reveal higher appraisal than right-layout and top-layout advertisement. Summing up the research results, the libraries are suggested to well apply left-layout advertisement to enhance the marketing information. What is more, the index page of a library website should focus on the layout of visual elements to promote the overall impression. The layout of library web pages should also well apply the principles of proximity and similarity to present the consistency.
85

巨量資料環境下之新聞主題暨輿情與股價關係之研究 / A Study of the Relevance between News Topics & Public Opinion and Stock Prices in Big Data

張良杰, Chang, Liang Chieh Unknown Date (has links)
近年來科技、網路以及儲存媒介的發達,產生的資料量呈現爆炸性的成長,也宣告了巨量資料時代的來臨。擁有巨量資料代表了不必再依靠傳統抽樣的方式來蒐集資料,分析數據也不再有資料收集不足以致於無法代表母題的限制。突破傳統的限制後,巨量資料的精隨在於如何從中找出有價值的資訊。 以擁有大量輿論和人際互動資訊的社群網站為例,就有相關學者研究其情緒與股價具有正相關性,本研究也試著利用同樣具有巨量資料特性的網路新聞,抓取中央新聞社2013年7月至2014年5月之經濟類新聞共計30,879篇,結合新聞主題偵測與追蹤技術及情感分析,利用新聞事件相似的概念,透過連結匯聚成網絡並且分析新聞的情緒和股價指數的關係。 研究結果顯示,新聞事件間可以連結成一特定新聞主題,且能在龐大的網絡中找出不同的新聞主題,並透過新聞主題之連結產生新聞主題脈絡。對此提供一種新的方式來迅速了解巨量新聞內容,也能有效的回溯新聞主題及新聞事件。 在新聞情緒和股價指數方面,研究發現新聞情緒影響了股價指數之波動,其相關係數達到0.733562;且藉由情緒與心理線及買賣意願指標之比較,顯示新聞的情緒具有一定的程度能夠成為股價判斷之參考依據。 / In recent years, the technology, network, and storage media developed, the amount of generated data with the explosive growth, and also declared the new era of big data. Having big data let us no longer rely on the traditional sample ways to collect data, and no longer have the issue that could not represent the population which caused by the inadequate data collection. Once we break the limitations, the main spirit of big data is how to find out the valuable information in big data. For example, the social network sites (SNS) have a lot of public opinions and interpersonal information, and scholars have founded that the emotions in SNS have a positive correlation with stock prices. Therefore, the thesis tried to focus on the news which have the same characteristic of big data, using the web crawl to catch total of 30,879 economics news articles form the Central News Agency, furthermore, took the “Topic Detection & Tracking” and “Sentiment Analysis” technology on these articles. Finally, based on the concept of the similarity between news articles, through the links converging networks and analyze the relevant between news sentiment and stock prices. The results shows that news events can be linked to specific news topics, identify different news topics in a large network, and form the news topic context by linked news topics together. The thesis provides a new way to quickly understand the huge amount of news, and backtracking news topics and news event with effective. In the aspect of news sentiment and stock prices, the results shows that the news sentiments impact the fluctuations of stock prices, and the correlation coefficient is 0.733562. By comparing the emotion with psychological lines & trading willingness indicators, the emotion is better than the two indicators in the stock prices determination.
86

開放性、犧牲比率與通貨膨脹:工具變數分量迴歸模型之應用 / Openness, sacrifice ratio, and inflation: application of instrumental variable quantile regression

侯俊宇, Hou, Jun Yu Unknown Date (has links)
開放性與通貨膨脹之間的關係一直是總體經濟學中重要的議題。Romer (1993) 使用 Kydland and Prescott (1977) 和 Barro and Gordan (1983) 的模型進行分析,發現開放性增加會使的降低背離法則的誘因。本篇論文使用 Galvao (2008), Galvao and Montes-Rojas (2009), 和 Harding and Lamarche (2009) 的追蹤資料工具變數分量回歸模型進行分析,同時也以實證分析開放性和犧牲比率之間的關係。在考慮的開放性的內生性之後,我們發現在通膨越高的國家其開放性的影響越大,動態不一致性也越嚴重。 / The relationship between openness and inflation is an important issue in macroeconomics. Romer (1993) uses the models of Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordan (1983) to argue that greater openness will reduce the policymakers' incentive to deviate from the rule. Cukierman, Webb, and Neyapti (1992) and Romer (1993) have an idea that countries with less political stability have a higher probability to violate the pre-committed monetary policies. In addition, as proposed by Romer (1993), the openness may be endogenous when analyzing the relationship between openness and inflation. Thus, we apply instrumental variable quantile regression for panel data proposed by Galvao (2008), Galvao and Montes-Rojas (2009), and Harding and Lamarche (2009) to test whether or not the negative effects of openness is stronger when inflation is higher. We also do the empirical work between openness and the sacrifice ratio to test the mechanism that openness affects inflation established by Romer (1993). After dealing with the potential endogeneity of openness, we find that when the inflation is higher the negative effect of openness is stronger. As the argument of Romer (1993), our empirical results show that the time inconsistency problem is more serious in countries with higher inflation. But our empirical results show that the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio is positive which is different from the mechanism established by Romer (1993).
87

財政赤字會造成通貨膨脹嗎?動態追蹤資料的分量迴歸分析 / Is fiscal deficit inflationary? A dynamic panel quantile analysis

朱浩榜, Chu, Hao Pang Unknown Date (has links)
經濟理論認為,長期持續的財政赤字將會因貨幣融通而造成通貨膨脹,而且通膨越高的經濟體越容易受到赤字的影響。本文依照Catao and Terrones (2005)的理論模型,以狹義貨幣衡量財政赤字的規模,並據此檢驗1960到2006年間91個國家赤字與通貨膨脹的關係。本文使用Lin (2010)的分量迴歸方法,藉以估計在不同通膨水準下赤字的影響,並且允許兩者之間的動態調整。實證結果發現:當通膨越高,赤字造成的影響將越嚴重;若通膨在低水準,赤字則影響很弱、甚至不會造成任何影響。因此,當通膨越高的時候,維持財政紀律將越能有效達成物價穩定。這層赤字與通膨間關係不會因為考量了其他變數而有所改變。此外,赤字通常在開發中國家影響較強,尤其是在高通膨的時候。最後,在1990到2006年間,卻沒有發現赤字具有任何的通膨效果。 / In economic theory, sustained fiscal deficits might cause inflation by means of money creation, and the economy in a higher inflation level would be more strongly impacted by an increase in deficits. Following the theoretical model of Cat\~{a}o and Terrones (2005), I scaled fiscal deficits by narrow money stock and examined the deficit-inflation relationship in 91 countries from 1960 to 2006. A dynamic panel quantile regression of Lin (2010) was employed, which can estimate the impact of fiscal deficits at various inflation levels and allows for a dynamic adjustment. The empirical results show that fiscal deficits will be more serious as inflation rises, and weakly or not related to inflation if it is at a low level. Therefore, fiscal consolidation would be more effective in price stabilization the higher the inflation. Moreover, the results remain robust while taking other possibly inflation-related factors into consideration. Furthermore, the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation is generally greater in developing countries, particularly when inflation is at a high level. Finally, the inflationary effect of deficits is not detected over 1990--2006.
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匯率轉嫁效果-動態追蹤資料的分量迴歸分析 / Exchange rate pass-through into inflation: a dynamic panel Quantile analysis

李婉璘, Li, Wan Lin Unknown Date (has links)
開放經濟中,匯率可以透過競爭效果及進口型的通貨膨脹抬升價格,或藉由資產負債效果造成通貨緊縮。本文依循 Carranza et al. (2009) 的實證模型,控制美元化程度的影響,並使用Lin (2010) 的動態分量迴歸方法,針對1974Q1-2010Q4期間80個國家,檢驗不同通貨膨脹水準下的匯率轉嫁效果。總體而言,通膨愈高的時候,匯率貶值的擴張效果愈強;但當通膨降低,其強度也隨之減弱。此結果在考慮其他解釋變數或不同貶值情形後仍維持穩健。而當進一步檢視不同國家或期間的匯率轉嫁效果,匯率對通貨膨脹的正向效果,在中低所得國家中普遍較強,但在1995年後減弱,甚至轉為負向。Taylor(2000)的假說,得以在本文大部分的實證結果中證實。 / In an open economy, exchange rate could either increase prices by competitiveness effect and imported inflation, or be disinflationary through the balance-sheet effect. Controlling for the impact induced by the degree of dollarization, I follow the empirical model of Carranza et al. (2009) with a wide panel of 80 countries over 1974Q1-2010Q4. The exchange rate pass-through is investigated at various inflation levels in a dynamic panel quantile analysis suggested by Lin (2010). In general, exchange rate depreciation is more inflationary the higher inflation levels, but the magnitude of pass-through is reduced as inflation become lower. Also, the results are robust with respect to add other explanatory variables or take the depreciation cases into account. Furthermore, to investigate the pass-through across countries or periods, the positive impact of exchange rate on inflation is greater in middle- and low-income countries, but declines and even becomes negative after 1995. The hypothesis in Taylor (2000) is thus confirmed in most part of our empirical results.
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銀行資本與金融控股體系對銀行放款管道的影響-追蹤資料分析 / The impact of bank capital and financial holding company on the bank lending channel-a panel data analysis

郭羿伶 Unknown Date (has links)
本文以1999年第4季至2011年第3季24家銀行的追蹤資料,分析銀行資本與金融控股體系對銀行放款管道的影響。全體樣本銀行的實證結果顯示,沒有顯著證據支持放款管道的存在。銀行淨值及調整成本對放款有顯著的影響,支持銀行資本管道存在。另外,銀行加入金融控股體系之後,調整成本的影響增加。 大型銀行樣本的實證結果顯示,大型銀行放款管道的作用不顯著;但是,銀行資本管道呈現顯著影響。小型銀行放款管道及資本管道皆沒有顯著證據支持兩者存在,但非存款負債對小型銀行放款的影響顯著。除此之外,小型銀行在金融控股體系下,短期投資及非存款負債對放款的影響顯著。由此結果可知,大小型銀行皆可藉由資產負債的調整來抵銷貨幣政策的衝擊,維持放款的成長。
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工廠火災相關因素探討-以新北市為例 / The determinants of factory fires : the case of New Taipei city 2009-2015

林晏辰, Lin, Yen Chen Unknown Date (has links)
內政部消防署「104年消防白皮書」統計2005年至2014年建築物火災中,以獨立住宅火災最多,工廠火災次之,但工廠火災所造成的損失及使用消防人力、消防車輛數,卻超乎一般建築物甚多,也造成了許多警消及民眾之傷亡,因此有必要將其獨立於建築物火災之外,進行相關之資料分析與研討。 新北市轄區幅員廣闊,以人口數或工廠家數,都是全台灣最多,具有主要交通、消費市場及生產製造多重角色,且各行政區因歷史、環境或文化等因素,嚴然為另一個台灣縮影,與其他縣市相比也較具代表性,因此本研究使用2009至2015年新北市追蹤資料來作迴歸分析,探討消防概念因素(例如:工廠消防檢查次數等4項)、人口及區域概念因素(例如:大學以上教育人口比例等6項)與工廠火災指標【例如:火災發生件數、人員傷(亡)數量、火災件數/列管工廠數量比】關係。 在實證結果內,並扣除掉部分因素可能有內生性影響後,顯示「消防專用蓄水池」、「工廠消防檢查次數」及「老化指數」【(65歲以上年底人口數/0-14歲年底人口數)x100為代表】3項,有影響工廠火災指標。其中消防專用蓄水池與此地區有無發生工廠火災呈負相關,但與老化指數呈正相關。其次發現,消防安檢次數與工廠火災件數呈負相關。最後,工廠火災件數與工廠數量比,和老化指數呈正相關。 / According to the yearly fire report in Taiwan, factory fire has accounted for the highest proportion, and also cause lots of people and firefighters’ casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to separate factory fire from normal building fire cases, and use related data to analyze and discuss independently. New taipei city has a large territory, which including the largest population and highest number of factories in Taiwan, therefore, this study applied New Taipei city panel data from 2009 to 2015 to perform regression analysis,and explore the influence of concept fire factors, population, and conceptual regional factors on the index of factory fire. According to the research, after deducting the suspected endogenous problems, the result shows that fire water reservoir, factory fire safety inspection, and aging index 【(population age number of 65 years above / number of 0-14 years old )X100 】will have influence on factory fire index. Fire water reservoir have an inversely relationship with factory fire within the area, however, the aging index is proportional to factory fire. Second, the increasing number of fire safety inspection will reduce factory fire. finally , the number of factory fire is proportional to the number of factory and aging index.

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