This article examines the possibility of an unusual change of the security returns, which is defined as 10% changes, by applying recurrent event data technique in survival analysis. The empirical evidences obtained from S&P 500 firms show that the momentum effect has a significantly positive relation with the probability of the acute fluctuations to occur. And the book-to-market factor, which can be seen as a value/growth indicator, is always negatively related to probability of the events. However, the market factor, the size factor, and the liquidity factor provide no additional information to predict the probability. Based on the estimated hazard rate for the market, we find an interesting result that during the bull market, the stock prices rise gradually over time while collapse acutely, and the converse is true when the market is bad.

Bankruptcy prediction has been of great interest to academics in the fields of accounting and finance for decades. Prior literatures focus mostly on investigating the covariates that lead to bankruptcy. In this thesis, however, we extend the issue of interest to what are the possible covariates that cause significant jumps in bankruptcy probability for a company. We consider the BSM-probability measure examined by Hillegeist, Keating, Cram, and Lundsedt (2004) to help us calculate the variation in bankruptcy probabilities for companies. In addition, recurrent event data analysis is applied to explore these jumps in bankruptcy intensity. By investigating the S&P500 constituents with sample consists of 343 S&P500-listed companies and 17,836 quarter observations starting from 1994 to 2007, we find that, in three of our models, all of these six covariates are negatively related to the recurrences of event that a company will suffer significant jumps in its bankruptcy probability during the next quarter. Additionally, macroeconomic covariates have greater explanatory power as factors affecting the probability of these jumps, while company-specific covariates contribute less to these recurrences of events. In comparison, we conduct another estimation based on the observation of slight increases in bankruptcy probability for companies. Contrary to what we find on the prior dataset, our empirical results suggest the factors that evoke these events are less prominent and their influences on the event recurrence are mixed.

以往重複事件分析法主要用於醫學與科學領域，近來學者逐漸將其應用至經濟、商學、社會科學等領域，本篇論文採用重複事件分析法，分析S&P 500公司股票回購的行為，回顧過去學者對股票回購之研究，我們檢視公司執行股票回購的三大原因，根據我們的實證結果發現公司可能會以股票回購作為影響公司資本結構的工具，再者亦可能用以減低剩餘資金，然而，本篇論文的實證結果較不支持訊號發射理論。 / In this study, we apply Cox proportional hazard model in recurrent event analysis, which usually used in medical and science studies, to analyze the determinants of the stock repurchase events of S&P 500 companies. We investigate three main incentives that companies conduct stock repurchase. The empirical results show that companies employ repurchase as a technique to alter capital structure. In addition, companies conduct stock repurchase to distribute excess capital. In contrast, there are little evidences to support signaling undervaluation.

關於描述兩個觀察地A和B相似的程度而言，生物品種是否相同是其中的一個切入點，因此品種重複（species overlap）便為描述兩觀察地相似度的一種指標。就一般的生物或生態研究而言，較常使用的品種重複指數為以品種數為計算基礎的 Jaccard index，公式為 ，其中 和 分別為觀察地A和B的總品種數，而 則為兩地的共同品種數，這樣的計算方式為Gower(1985) 歸類描述兩單位（unit）的相似度（similarity）中的一種。在我們的研究中，將令依觀察到的品種數及品種重複數所計算出的 Jaccard index 視為估計值，記為 ；若描述相似度時僅以品種為計算單位，而忽略個別品種的數量未免有資訊流失的情形，因此我們延伸 Jaccard index 指數而另立以個別品種數為計算單位的 N 指數，並以無母數最大概似估計法（Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator, NPMLE）估計 N 指數，記為 。另外，Smith, Solow 和 Preston (1996) 也提出利用 delta-beta-binomial 模型修正 Jaccard index 的低估（underestimate）情形，我們將此模型所推估的品種重複記為 ，因此我們的研究重點便在於以模擬實驗比較 、 和 在估計真正參數時的行為。 在模擬實驗中，根據蒙地卡羅（Monte-Carlo）模擬法則，我們設計6種品種發生機率相等的平衡母體，及12種品種發生機率服從幾何分配的不平衡母體，以500次抽樣所得的平均數及標準差決定估計的好壞。根據研究結果，若在已知母體為平衡母體的情形之下， 和 有不錯的估計；而 則是不管在平衡母體或不平衡母體皆有不錯的估計，但 和 在某些不平衡母體時，卻有極偏差的估計。 除了模擬實驗之外，我們並推導出 的期望值和變異數，並證明其為 N 指數的大樣本不偏估計值（asymptotic unbiased estimator），並以台灣西北部濕地的鳥類記錄為實例，計算出三個估計值，並以跋靴法（Bootstrapping）計算出三個估計量的標準差估計值，發現NPMLE 有最小的變異程度。 / In describing the similarity between communities A and B, species overlap is one kind of measure. In ecology and biology, the Jaccard index (Gower, 1985) ,denoted , for species overlap is widely used and is useded as an estimation in our research. However, the Jaccard index is simply the proportion of overlapping species, that is those species appearing in more than one community, to unique species, that is those species appearing in only one community. However, this index ignores species proportion information, assigning equal weight to all species. We propose a new index, N, which includes proportion information and is estimated by a Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPMLE), denoted . Smith et al. (1996) proposed a delta-beta-binomial model to improve underestimation of the Jaccard index, we denoted this estimator . In our Monte-Carlo simulations, we design 6 balanced populations in which every species has an equal proportion and 12 unbalanced populations in which species proportions follow a geometric distribution. We found that and are accurate for balanced populations but overestimate or underestimate the true value for some unbalanced populations. However, is robust for both balanced and unbalanced populations. In addition to simulation results, we also give theoretical results, which prove some asymptotic properties of NPMLE .For example, species abundance of wild birds communications occurred at two locations in north-western Taiwan.Via bootstrapping, has smaller standard error than and .

由於租稅課徵影響國際直接投資與證券投資甚鉅，各國為積極狀勵外人投資及對外投 資，莫不致力消除因課稅權與稅制差異所引起之國際重複課稅現象。目前各國雖採取 國外所得免稅法，減除法或國外稅額扣抵法，消除股東與公司之間的所得重複課稅， 然而所採取方法有別，其免除重複課稅效果互異。有鑑於此，本文擬探討目前各種不 同所得稅制下，消除國際重複課稅之租稅處理，以及各種消除重複課稅方法，如合與 課稅之世界效率、國家效率與國際公平目標配合。本文一冊共五萬餘字，其各章要點 為：一、緒論二、概述股東與公司問所得稅課征之國際性問題三、避免國際重複課稅 之租稅處理四、各種消除國際重複課稅方法五、評估各國國際重複課稅概況與消除方 法六、結論與建議。

在公司財務的領域中，探討公司資本結構決策主要有三個主流理論：靜態抵換理論、融資順位理論以及折時理論。本篇文章採用重複事件分析法，首先沿用Baker and Wurgler (2002)中提及之五個因素做為自變數，研究影響公司辦理現金增資危險函數之因子研究，研究結果顯示，公司現金增資之危險函數與財務槓桿成正向關係，此項證據傾向支持融資順位理論，然而本篇論文研究結果，並無顯著證據支持折時理論。本篇論文接著建立另一組變素設定，將價格趨勢納入模型中，取代原來在Baker and Wurgler(2002)中觀察折時現象之因子，結果顯示折時現象是顯著的。因此，本篇論文研究結果並未對是否支持折時理論下定論，值得思考的是，欲觀察公司是否存在折時現象，除了Baker and Wurgler(2002)中提及之變數之外，直接將價格趨勢納入模型或許是另一個可行之道。 / In the field of traditional corporate financing theories, there are three mainstream theories leading the way while talking about the firms’ financing decisions: static trade-off theory, pecking order theory, and market timing theory. In this paper, we apply the recurrent event analysis and follow the independent variables appearing in the Baker and Wurgler (2002) first to examine the factors that affect firms’ hazard rate to offer seasoned equity. The results indicate that higher leverage is in positive relation with the hazard rate of firms’ seasoned equity offering, meaning that firms’ financing decisions follow the pecking order theory to some degree. However, while the recurrent event analysis is adopted, the market timing effect becomes insignificant when considering the independent variables appearing in the Baker and Wurgler(2002). As a result, we proceed to establish another set of covariates in which the price trend factor is involved to examine the market timing effect. While the price trend factor is substituted for the market-to-book ratio to represent the market timing effect, the market timing effect turns out to be significant. Thus, we consider that using the price trend of the market directly may be a suitable way to examine the market timing effect.

隨著社會人口結構的變化，高齡化與少子化對未來勞動力的運用、及相關社會保險產生很大的影響，因此提高中高齡人力資源的運用是必要的。在提升中高齡勞動力的運用政策下，期望中高齡失業者參加藉由職業訓練以協助其再就業。然而卻發現重複參加訓練者大多是中高齡的問題，未因為接受職業訓練而就業或穩定就業，反而再度回到職業訓練中，代表著中高齡的職業訓練制度出現了問題，以致無法發揮原來的效用。本研究從提升中高齡人力資源的角度，了解中高齡人力資源運用的現況、運用及再就業所面臨的問題，進而討論我國職業訓練制度現況、問題及相關規範，做為了解中高齡職業訓練的研究基礎。藉由訪談結果，分析影響中高齡職業訓練成效的原因，以探討中高齡重複參訓的原因，以釐清職業訓練在對於提升中高齡人力資源運用可能存在的問題。 本研究發現從參加職業訓練前、課程開始、訓練過程、到訓練結束，皆存在可能影響中高齡重複參加職業訓練的原因。職業訓練未能使中高齡者順利再就業或穩定就業，職業訓練對於提高就業的效果不佳，顯示職業訓練制度存在者一些問題。本文將造成中高齡者重複參訓的問題結論出四個面向，即中高齡受訓者與環境互動所形成的選擇、中高齡受訓者與職業訓練單位的相互關係、訓練單位在職業訓練制度中的選擇、職業訓練制度模組與社會的連結等所衍生出來的現象。 最後對於減少、解決中高齡者重複參加訓練的情況，提出相關建議。分為三個部分，首先為職業訓練制度設計的規定，包括職業訓練生活津貼、失業給付的規範、就業輔導、評鑑制度的調整等。及職業訓練執行過程，對於篩選機制的落實、課程設計與實務連結度、就業服務之資源連結、資訊宣導等。再者為中高齡與職業訓練的關係，包括協助創業、就業機會的連結與結合產業發展、增加職業訓練專班等，不僅減少重複參訓所產生資源配置不均的問題，同時也期望職業訓練能確實發揮促進中高齡者就業的功用。

本篇論文的目的在於探討母親在親子對話中談論過去事件的方式對於小孩自行敘說過去事件能力的影響。研究語料來自於兩名以漢語為母語的三歲小孩與她們母親的對話，以及這兩名小孩與研究者之間的對話。研究結果顯示，根據Reese, Haden, & Fivush (1993)的研究，這兩位母親都展現出高度詳述的風格(high-elaborative style)，不過這兩位媽媽所注重的敘說內容(narrative information)是不同的，其中一位媽媽注重事件的過程(complicating action)，另一位媽媽則注重事件發生的背景(orientation)。至於小孩自行敘說過去事件的能力，研究結果發現這兩位小孩會受到她們母親的影響，亦即這兩位小孩在與研究者對話時，常常詳述(elaborate)正在討論的過去事件，較少重複(repeat)已提過的資訊，不過有關於敘說的內容(narrative information)，這兩位小孩到了後期所注重的內容並不相同，她們所強調的內容會與她們母親類似，而這個結果與維高斯基(Vygotsky)的理論是一致的。 / This study investigates mothers’ ways of co-constructing narratives about the past in mother-child conversations when the children were 3;6 and the children’s narrative performance in researcher-child conversations at three time points when the children were 3;6, 3;9, and 4;0. The effect of mothers’ ways of co-constructing narratives with children on children’s narrative performance was also investigated. Mothers’ ways of co-constructing narratives with children were examined in terms of the conversational styles and the narrative information types, and children’s narrative performance was examined in terms of the conversational contributions and the narrative information types. Subjects in this study are two female children (D and Z) and their mothers. The results show that the two mothers displayed the same conversational style, namely, high-elaborative style termed by Reese, Haden, & Fivush (1993). But, they differed in the type of narrative information that they placed more emphasis on. One of the mothers was particularly concerned about orientation information, while the other mother placed more emphasis on complicating actions. As for children’s narrative performance, the two children were very similar about the type of utterances that they contributed in the narratives when having conversations with the researcher. More specifically, they both frequently produced the type of elaborations, which was much higher than repetitions at each time point. In terms of narrative information types, at Time 1 (3;6) and Time 2 (3;9), D and Z were similar in that complicating action was higher than orientation. However, at Time 3 (4;0), Z’s orientation was higher than complicating action, while D’s complicating action was still higher than orientation. With respect to the effect of mothers’ ways of co-constructing narratives with children on children’s narrative performance, it was found that the difference that D’s mother provided or requested for complicating actions much more often than Z’s mother did at Time 1 (3;6) was reflected in the two children’s percentage of this narrative information type at Time 3 (4;0). This is in line with Vygotskian theory that early scaffolds provided by mothers would be reflected in children’s performance at a later time.

重複式閱讀法(repeated reading)最初在英語為母語的國家施行，藉由重複閱讀同一文章方式，達到認字自動化(automaticity)，用以提升閱讀的速度與理解度。多項實驗研究顯示，口語流暢度與閱讀能力有高度的正向相關，而重複式閱讀法能有效提升口語流暢度。此研究是為期十二週的同儕教導式閱讀教學法(peer-mediated repeated reading)運用於台灣北部一所國中英語課程中，參與者為二十八名八年級學生。以學校教科書內文章和學校採用的學習補充閱讀內容為學習教材。重複閱讀活動每週兩次，共二十四節活動。 此研究採個案研究法，選擇三組學習者作為觀察對象，以深入探討學習者於同儕教導式重複閱讀法中的學習過程，以及觀察探討關鍵事件(critical event)於學習的影響。資料蒐集包含質性資料：(1)課堂觀察記錄，(2)學生學習日誌，(3)四次個人訪談，以及(4)四次文章一分鐘口語閱讀正確字數(correct words read per minute)的量化資料。 根據三組個案研究得到的結果顯示，於國中英語課堂中實行同儕教導式閱讀教學法，對口語流暢度產生的學習機會為：(1)因累積的練習影響與斷句運用而導致口語速度的增加。(2)口語閱讀準確度的增加。同儕提供的口語錯誤糾正，學習者自身對於正確度的自覺提升，以及自我學習狀態監測對正確度提升有正向影響。(3)因閱讀速度增加的學習成果或指導同儕提高自我信心而提升的英語學習動機。而在運用同儕教導式閱讀教學法於課堂活動，可能遭遇到的挑戰為：(1)同儕無法提供糾正性回饋，導致口語錯誤一再重複。(2)因欲增加口語速度或因重複的過程無聊，而未清楚地唸出英文字彙的發音，隨意帶過。(3)過度依賴同伴提供的立即口語回饋，以及標示的中文注音符號來念出不會的單字。最後，依據本研究結果，針對此三項挑戰提出建議。並基於此研究中同儕教導式重複閱讀法對於口語流暢度產生正向的增進效果和提供的學習機會，建議於國中英語課堂中採用此學習法，有助於增進國中生口語能力。 / This study was conducted to determine affordances and challenges pertaining to peer-mediated repeated reading (RR) as a regular classroom activity in junior high schools. Although RR has been widely used in L1 countries as a method to develop oral reading fluency, it has only been studied by Taiwanese researchers in the last decade. However, limited research has been conducted regarding the implementation of RR in junior high school English classrooms. Therefore, this qualitative study was conducted to obtain further understanding of the impact of RR regarding the improvement of oral reading fluency among junior high school students. Changes in oral reading performance among 28 participants from a junior high school in Northern Taiwan were observed over the course of a 12-week peer-mediated RR program; furthermore, the learning processes among all participants, which featured three focused dyads, and the critical events experienced along with the impact of these events, were observed. The collected data included classroom observation notes and videos, students’ learning journals, four interviews, and quantitative oral reading rate data (correct words read per minute). The affordances of this method were determined as follows: (1) oral reading rates increased because of the effect of accumulated practice and more practice with sentence chunking; (2) oral reading accuracy was enhanced because participants were provided corrective feedback and developed a sense of accuracy; furthermore, some high achievers demonstrated an enhanced metacognitive ability; and (3) having a partner motivated the participants to learn and facilitated the development of a sense of self-competence during the RR sessions. The following challenges were also encountered: (1) repeated errors resulted from the lack of corrective feedback from partners, (2) careless oral reading owing to the pursuit of a higher oral reading rate or the boredom arising from repetition, and (3) overreliance on corrective feedback from partners and the use of Mandarin phonetic symbols to read out unknown words. Overall, the findings of this study suggested that the peer-mediated RR method could be effectively applied as a regular classroom activity in junior high schools to enhance the oral reading fluency of students.

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