金融自由化後，金融商品交易的多樣性在活絡金融市場方面佔有很重的份量，也使得投資者有更多樣化的投資管道及標地。投資者購買金融商品除了追求較高的報酬外，對於投資風險的管理也是不容乎視。2007年，美國的次級房貸subprimemortgage風爆使得雷曼兄弟和AIG集團爆發財務危機，正是投資者追求高報酬之後，在風險管理上並未妥善管理所造成。 　　 　　衡量風險時，通常會使用變異數或標準差當做衡量指標，即在衡量其波動性，因此波動性裏含有許多訊息。在本論文中，我們將探討波動性所透露出來的兩個訊息，一個是風險值(VaR)，文中將分別使用二種衡量可解釋長期記憶的GARCH模型探討台股指數期貨及新加坡的摩台股指數期貨這兩個期貨市場的VaR。另外則是試圖尋找出這兩個期貨市場殘差值的波動性之間的長期共整合關係。 本論文主要由三篇文章組成，第一篇是利用Baillie, Bollerslev, and Millelsen (1996) 所提出的長期記憶模型FIGARCH來計算台指期貨的風險值（VaR）；第二篇也是利用長期記憶模型來計算新加坡的摩台指期貨的風險值，但這次的長期記憶模型增加一個由Tse (1998)　提出的可以考慮不對稱性波動的FIAPARCH模型。 　　這兩個模型都搭配三種不同的分配來計算VaR，分別是Normal, Student-t和skewed Student-t分配；實證結果顯示，這兩個期貨市場報酬的波動皆具有長期記憶，表示之前影響指數期貨報酬率的因素對未來指數期貨報酬率會有較長時間的影響力。而在傳統認為差殘值服從常態分配的假定下所計算出的VaR的配適情況較以Student-t分配計算出的VaR的配適情況不具效率，這除了說明傳統的常態分配假說在計算此兩個指數期貨報酬率是不適用之外，亦得出他們是具有肥尾（厚尾）的現象。 　　第三篇則是結合前兩篇的結果來探討此兩個指數期貨報酬率之間的波動性是否具有長期關係。因為台指期貨報酬率與摩台指期貨報酬率的波動性皆具有長期記憶，故在此部分，利用Engle-Granger (1987) 的兩階段共整合模型來求此兩個指數期貨報酬率之間的波動性是否存在長期關係。實證結果顯示，他們確實存在長期共整合關係，且摩台指期貨報酬率的波動性較台指期貨報酬率的波動性強，因此我們可以在台指期貨市場買入期指，而在新加坡的摩台指期貨市場避險 / The finance commodity exchange's multiplicity holds the very heavy component in the detachable money market aspect, after the financial liberalization. It also enables the investor to have many chances and commodities of investment. The investor purchases the financial commodity besides the higher reward, and does not allow regarding investment risk's management to regard. In 2007, the securitization commodity violation of US's subprimemortgage explodes causes Lehman Brothers and the AIG group erupts the financial crisis. This is precisely the investor pursues the high reward, and their administration centers have not created properly in the risk management. When we measure risks, we usually adopt the variance or the standard deviation. That is to weight its property of volatilities. There is much information in the volatilities. In this thesis, we discussed two kinds of information which the property of volatilities discloses. One is the value at risk (VaR hereafter). In this article, we use long-term memory's GARCH model to explain that the VaR of Taiwan stock index futures returns and Singapore's MSCI Taiwan index futures returns. Moreover, we attempts to seek for whether there are long relationship of the residuals volatilities between these two futures markets. This thesis was combined by three essays. The first essay employed the FIGARCH model of Baillie, Bollerslev, and Millelsen (1996) to calculated the VaR of Taiwan stock index futures returns. The second essay employed the FIGARCH model and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998) to calculated the VaR of Singapore's MSCI Taiwan index futures returns. We calculated the VaRs of the different two futures markets by using the FIGARCH and FIAPARCH models with three different distributions-normal, student-t and skewed student-t. The empirical results showed the two futures markets both has long memory. It is not efficient to calculated the VaRs by using the traditional normal distribution. The Student-t distribution fitted the model better than the normal distribution. The third essay, we employed the Engle-Granger (1987) two-step cointegration model to test whether there are long relationship of the residuals volatilities between the Taiwan stock index futures returns and Singapore's MSCI Taiwan index futures returns. The empirical results showed that there was fractional cointegration between the two futures markets and the volatility in Taiwan stock index futures market is about 83% of that in MSCI Taiwan Index Futures market.

無 / This paper investigates the long term performance of Taiwan stock market from 1967 to 2008. We obtain the total return of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (“TAIEX”) by adjusting cash dividends. Prior to Dec 31st, 2008, the adjusted TAIEX (AdTAIEX) become 16,088.49 is 3.5 times than 4591.23, the TAIEX it reach. Based on annualized rate of return, AdTAIEX has 13.069% greater than 9.743% of TAIEX. Investors not only care about the rate of return of their portfolio, but the real purchasing power they have. Based on correction of inflation, AdTAIEX only has 8.25% annually, with 4.819% erosion by inflation. TAIEX only has 5.07% annually, with 4.673% erosion by inflation. Also, we create a timing strategy according to the varying of past variance that may help “buy and hold”strategy.

影響不動產使用權價值之因素除了使用期限之長短外，再開發行為更是關鍵之一。Capozza（1991）認為承租人由於租賃契約存續期間之限制，會選擇在較早時機以較小規模進行再開發。然這樣的行為不利於不動產維持最高最有效之利用。故Dale-Johnson（2000）將選擇權加入到租賃契約中，希望藉此提高承租人再開發之誘因。然選擇權具有價值，選擇權之價值應反映在初始租金之約定上，然初始租金之變動對於承租人之再開發行為是否會有影響尚無定論。本文使用Capozza（1991）之模型探討初始租金之變動以及租金成長假設型態不同對於承租人再開發行為之影響，結果顯示，初始租金變動會影響承租人再開發行為，而租金服從隨價變動時承租人再開發時點會延遲且再開發規模會增加。 / The factors effect real estate value beside the term of using property, redevelopment is one of the important key. Capozza(1991)consider that because the limited term of lease, the lessee will redevelopment earlier and less scale than lessor. But this kinds of lessee behavior isn’t good for the property in high and best use. Dale-Johnson(2000) let option into lease to give lessee more incentive under redevelopment. However, option with value and must reacted to initial rent. But the chang in initial rent if effect lessee’s redevelopment at the same time is unknown yet. This paper use Capozza(1991) model to confer how initial rent change and different pattern of rent growth will chang lessee’s redevelopment. The result shows that initial rent change will reduce lessee’s redevelopment scale,and when rent follow Arithmetic Brownian Motion, lessee redevelopment timing will defer and increase scale.

No description available.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23875号 / 工博第4962号 / 新制||工||1775(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 小椋 大輔, 教授 高野 靖, 教授 原田 和典 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

在分級醫療體制三段五級規劃中，地區醫院肩負診所、醫學中心轉診重要樞紐，扮演橋樑的重要角色。台灣的地區醫院在健保實施的20多年來，減少2百多家，而大型醫學及診所的數量卻大增，加上民眾不論大小病都愛跑大型醫院、健保給付有利大型醫院、和護理人力荒及一例一休勞基法的規範，都是造成現在地區醫院經營困難的主要原因。目前地區醫院仍無力與大醫院競爭，多以收治慢性照護患者為主，不再扮演大醫院和診所間的橋樑角色。政府部門也注意到這個問題，近年來開始推動醫療資源垂直整合，針對中風病患等急性後期照護患者，讓患者在大醫院接受完急性期治療後，再回到原先看診的地區醫院慢性復健治療，除了讓民眾獲得妥善照護，也盼扭轉民眾就醫的習慣，提升地區醫院的角色及地位，但成效不彰。 K地區醫院也面臨著目前的健保困境，和經營瓶頸的問題，加上今年實施的長期照護法又將影響台灣的醫療環境與生態，K地區醫院必須提早因應。K地區醫院須考慮如何利用本身的優勢，在外在環境的改變下(例如人口老化及長期照護法的實施)，去利用內外部的資源，進行醫院組織變革，以擬定經營策略使危機變為轉機，讓長期照護成為發展轉型的助力。 本研究即在探討K地區醫院為了改變現狀，針對本身的資源與能力、願景與目標和外在環境的政府政策及地區需求，並參考標竿醫院，所提出的一個解決方案-轉型長期照護導向的營運模式，期能達到醫院永續發展的目標。K地區醫院採用的長期照護導向策略是運用醫學中心急重症醫療支援作為後盾，並結盟長照機構，深耕社區營造與健康促進，落實社區慢性疾病的管理，建立部門負責以長照為導向的組織營運模式。

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(教育学) / 乙第12810号 / 論教博第151号 / 新制||教||148(附属図書館) / 31297 / 京都大学大学院教育学研究科教育科学専攻 / (主査)教授 岩井 八郎, 教授 前平 泰志, 教授 田中 耕治 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Education) / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(経済学) / 乙第12995号 / 論経博第391号 / 新制||経||278(附属図書館) / 32923 / (主査)教授 川北 英隆, 准教授 曵野 孝, 教授 澤邉 紀生 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

付記する学位プログラム名: グローバル生存学大学院連携プログラム / 京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第21913号 / 情博第696号 / 新制||情||120(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科社会情報学専攻 / (主査)教授 矢守 克也, 教授 多々納 裕一, 教授 畑山 満則 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DGAM

人際經驗是個體發展他人形象與環境評估的關鍵因素。大部分尋求長期心理治療的個案，其困擾多與過去負面的人際經驗所帶來的關係議題有關。若個體在成長過程經常遭受拒絕，會發展出「世界不能控制、別人不可預測、不可信任」的他人觀點。因此，本研究旨在探討長期心理治療歷程個案他人表徵的差異，以及心理師如何協助個案改變原有的他人表徵，並創造新的人際關係經驗。 本研究以質性研究方式進行，總共以六位長期心理治療取向為主的資深心理師作為研究對象，以一對一的方式，與每位受訪者進行一次深度訪談。訪談內容著重探討個案他人表徵的改變，以及個案過去的重要他人形象如何重現在治療關係中；並深入了解長期心理治療關係對於個案發展新的人際關係經驗之影響。本研究透過現象學方式進行訪談資料的分析，呈現長期深度心理治療對改變個案人際關係經驗之成效。本研究結果發現如下： 一、他人表徵 治療前的他人表徵是模糊、沒有彈性、單一、負面的，因而無法辨認心理師真實的形象。經過長期心理治療，個案對他人形象的詮釋逐漸清晰、具體、有彈性、且納入更多正向的觀點。 二、長期心理治療歷程 先個案會將自己慣用的人際互動帶入與心理師的治療關係中。接著個案感受到心理師溫暖、支持的回應。由於治療關係不同於過去的人際經驗，使個案重新經驗穩定、安全的人際關係，進而開始辨認並建立新的他人形象。最後個案將學到的新人際互動方式帶到其他關係中，發展更適應的人際關係。 三、心理師的角色與功能 為了建立穩固的治療同盟，心理師需維持穩定的態度、提供溫暖支持的環境、尊重個案的自主性。同時心理師也可幫助個案覺察、理解自身的狀態，建立更彈性的想法、協助個案願意信任心理師及冒險。 / Interpersonal experience is the key factor for people to develop other- representation and to evaluate the environment. Most issues of long-term psychotherapy clients’ come from past negative experiences about interpersonal relationship. If people were frequently rejected by others as they grew, it is much easier for them to develop the viewpoints of other that the world is uncontrollable, and that people are unpredictable and untrustworthy. Hence, the main purpose of this research was to explore the difference of other-representation during the long-term psychotherapy period, and how counselors help the clients to change their old other-representation, in order to create new interpersonal relationship experience. This study used semi-structured interviews to collect data from 6 counselors who primarily conducted long-term psychotherapy for clients. Each psychologist was interviewed once, one by one. All interviews lasted for about one and half hour. The contents of the interviews focused on the change of other-representation, the reappearance of clients’ important interpersonal patterns in counseling relationships, and the influences of long-term counseling relationships on clients’ developing new interpersonal relationship experience. After data collection, verbatim transcription of each interviews were analyzed in a phenomenological approach. The study aims to obtain the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy on the change of clients’ interpersonal relationship experience. The main findings of this study were as follows: 1. Other-representation The other-representation is indistinct, inflexible, single, and negative before long-term psychotherapy begins, and clients have difficulties to recognize the real image of counselor. After long-term psychotherapy, clients are able to interpret the image of others in a more distinct, specific and flexible way, and to include some positive view points in their other-representation. 2. Long-term psychotherapy process First, clients bring their habitual interpersonal interactive mode into counseling relationships. Second, they receive kind and supportive response from the counselor. Because of counseling relationship is different from their past interpersonal experience, clients re-experience a stable and, secure interpersonal relationship and start to recognize and establish a new image of other people. Third, clients learn new interpersonal interactive skill, and develop more suitable interpersonal relationship . 3. The role and function of a counselor In order to establish stable working alliance, counselors should keep stable attitude, provide a holding environment, and respect the autonomy of clients. At the same time, counselors also help clients to comprehend their predicament, expand their cognition with elasticity, and trust counselors.