早期的購併股價績效研究，多以短期CAR模型作為衡量方式，但購併行為的促成與否，多以長期是否有綜效的出現來決定。故本研究以短期與長期股價績效衡量之結果，來看市場是否可以真實在購併當下反映出購併兩至三年後的價值，發現(1)購併股價績效以短期方式衡量都沒有異常報酬的出現，顯示市場並不預期購併對於主併公司會出現綜效或損失，所以股價並沒有異常報酬；(2)以長期方式衡量，則會因使用的模型不同而使結果出現分歧，全體、非金融、相關樣本長期績效以AMAR及BHAR模型衡量，會出現負向異常報酬，顯示市場不能在購併當時立即股價反應購併價值；以三因子模型衡量，卻顯示無異常報酬，可能原因為其與AMAR、BHAR模型在選取預期報酬的標準不同導致。(3)金融樣本則是在長、短期都不會出現異常報酬，表示金融業購併沒有綜效出現，且此一事實會立刻被市場反應。(4)非相關樣本在長期績效的衡量上以三種不同模型會得到三種不同結果，無法確實區分出其長期績效為何。(5)綜效動機下的購併行動以長期方式檢測有負向異常報酬，而短期則無，可能是因為在分群時被資訊誤導，自傲假設或代理人問題的購併行動被誤判為綜效動機，導致長期市場發現沒有綜效而調整股價，使股價下跌。(6)非綜效動機下的購併樣本，以長、短期方式檢測都無異常報酬，表示在購併宣告時，市場已經認為將來該購併不會有綜效出現，因此股價沒有異常反應，而長期觀之，市場也確實沒有異常報酬的產生，完全依照市場機制的運行。 關鍵字：購併、長期績效、短期股價績效、市場反應

本研究以事件研究法探討國內上市櫃公司於進行現金減資後，股價的短期宣告效果以及長期走勢。本研究實證結果顯示，公司進行現金減資後短期內，其股價有正向的異常報酬，並與現金減資比例之大小呈正相關。關於現金減資公司的長期表現，本研究發現，公司辦理現金減資後，其股價的長期異常報酬呈現下滑的趨勢。

面對國人的人口老化及老年人慢性疾病逐年升高趨勢，隨著國人生活水準改善，醫療技術提升，平均餘命亦逐年提高；尤其，近年來國人平均餘命上升幅度較往年更為快速，加上少子化現象，對於衍生之老人照護問題，值得政府及民間各界重視。政府近年來大力推動長期照護政策，2007年推動「我國長期照顧十年計畫」，2009年底將「長期照護保險法」草案送立法院審議，預定2011年後實施長期照護保險制度。給付型態以實物給付（服務提供）為主，現金給付為輔，給付水準區分四級，且有補助時數限制。草案中引進「部分負擔」作法，超過政府補助時數，將由民眾全部自行負擔照護費用，可見被照護者或家屬所須負擔之照護費用及精神壓力，仍是一項沈重的負擔。 依據經建會委託長期照護服務需求評估報告及我國長期照護資源供給調查報告，顯示未來長期照護服務需求與照護資源供給相差甚遠。綜觀各國政府所提供之長期照護保障，以基本保障及服務為原則，若要達到讓身心功能障礙者，能夠增進獨立生活能力，提升生活品質，以維持尊嚴與自主之目的，當然，須要靠商業長期看護保險的補充，才能架構完整的長期照護保障網絡。 觀察國內在1995年全民健保制度實施後，明顯激發了民眾對於商業保險之健康醫療保險商品需求的重視與認同。以全民健保制度開辦當年(即1995年)至2004年，此十年間的商業健康保險保費收入來看，十年之間健康險保費收入成長超過七倍。顯示政府推動全民健保制度後，不但激發民眾潛在需求意識，而且促進商業保險商品多元化快速發展。依照先進國家在長期看護保險商品市場的發展經驗，保險公司除重視其商品架構之開發，針對消費者對於長期看護保險的各種認知問題，也應要求業務人員在銷售過程說明清楚，以擴大潛在商機，及避免日後產生非必要之爭議。 有鑑於此，本研究除了詳細彙整介紹德國、日本及台灣政府長期照護制度現況，並對於美國、日本及台灣長期看護保險商品市場進行深入介紹與探討，且對於美國、英國長期看護保險消費者購買須知進行深入介紹與探討。目的在藉由本研究之介紹與探討之結果，提供台灣保險產業長期看護保險之商品開發、業務推動及編製長期看護保險消費者購買須知等實務運作之重要參考。拋磚引玉，期待保險產業有志之士一起掌握藍海商機，協助消費者購買到適合自己的長期看護保險保單。 / Aging population is a topical issue to today’s society, with improved living standard, advanced medical technology, and rising trend of chronic diseases; causing life expectancy to increase year by year. As a result of faster increase in life expectancy in recent years, together with the phenomenon of low birth rates, long-term care is an issue that should be taken seriously to both the public and the government. Recently, the government has been promoting long-term care policy vigorously, where it published “Taiwan’s 10 Years Long-term Care Program” in 2007, submitted “Long-term Care Insurance Law ” draft to the Legislative Yuan of Republic of China by end of 2009, and is scheduled to implement “Long Term Care Insurance” by 2011. Long-term care benefits provided by the government can be classified into four levels, and the benefits will mainly be service based, with hours limit, supported by cash payments. This means that, any long-term care exceeding government’s limit will have to be paid by the user, which may be a stress and burden, financially and mentally, to the family of those needing long-term care. According to “Long-term Care Service Needs Assessment Report” and “Supply of Long-term Care Resources Survey Report” consigned by the Council for Economic Planning and Development, it can be seen that the supply of long-term care resources can never quite meet the demand of long-term care services. After studying long-term care benefits provided by other governments, it is clear that commercial insurance is essential to allow people requiring long-term care to maintain a full standard of living. This may includes being able to live independently, to improve the quality of life, and to maintain one’s dignity. By observing the National Health Insurance （NHI） in Taiwan, implemented in 1995, it has stimulate people to be aware of their personal needs towards private health insurance products. The premium of private health insurance products had been increased by seven times from 1995 to 2004. It has been proven that government’s strong support on the NHI has help people to better understand the demands on their health protection, and at the same time, diversify private health insurance products. An overview on the experience of developing private long-term care insurance products in developed countries, insurance companies not only focus their core competence on developing insurance products but also pay attention on maintaining customers’ satisfaction, customer loyalty and customer retention. It is essential that insurance sales agents should help clients choose insurance policies that suit their needs by explaining policies in detail, in order to create new business opportunities and prevent from any future claim conflict or argument. In view of this, the purpose of this research is to firstly introduce the long-term care system in countries such as German, Japan and Taiwan, study on the experience of developing private long-term care insurance products in developed countries, and follow by an in-depth study and discussion about U.S. and U.K. shopper’s guide to long-term care insurances. Moreover, the findings of this dissertation can hopefully provide suggestions to insurance companies on development of long-term care insurance products and help building consumers satisfaction and consumer retention. To conclude, it is important to create a win-win solution to both customers and insurance companies, where insurers shall develop long-term care products that satisfy customers’ need and in return profit from the market opportunities.

隨著人口結構老化、疾病型態慢性化以及家庭結構的變遷，我國對老人長期照護需求日增，長期照護財務問題也成為政府及各界關心的社會議題。由於長期照護問題本身牽涉到兩代，甚至是多代之間的家庭決策，對整個經濟社會而言，時間更無限延伸，因此本文擬以一跨世代模型(overlapping generations model)來分析長期照護，期能更清楚了解家庭與政府決策行為的交互影響。 　　本論文採用兩階段決策模型(two-period strategic model)分析家庭成員的長期照護決策，在探討政府補助變數對家庭決策的影響時，例如現金和實物補貼，本研究模型同時考慮與補助相對應的財源；亦即在財政收支平衡架構(balancing scheme)下，對工作者（成年的子女）的所得課稅率t，收入全部作為對長期照護需求的現金補助或實物補助。在不同補助條件設定下，我們可以求得家庭內最適照護數量的決策，以及政府最適稅率的均衡條件；為了能更清楚變數間影響效果的程度大小，最後以本研究中的模型為基礎進行模擬分析。

本研究主要是在討論公司在興櫃期間，公司特徵的變動如何影響轉上市（櫃）後的績效。樣本期間取自民國94年3月1日至民國98年12月31日由興櫃轉上市（櫃）的公司，總計111間，特徵包括，資產總額、負債比率、內部人持股、本益比、創投持股、營收，以及其他公司特徵變數，績效的討論分為首日報酬與長期異常報酬。選擇此樣本期間的原因為行政院金融監督管理委員會宣佈自2005年3月1日起實施『初次上市（櫃）股票首五日無漲跌幅限制』之措施，我們相信此制度之實施可使轉上市（櫃）普通股的市場價格迅速反應合理價值，故可視首日報酬等同折價幅度。 實證結果發現，興櫃期間公司各項特徵之變動幅度對轉上市（櫃）的首日報酬具有預測能力，興櫃市場確實具有資訊揭露的效果。其中，內部人持股比率與創投持股比率增加，新股上市的首日報酬會顯著越小；公司的本益比提高、銷貨成長率越高及興櫃期間越長，首日報酬越大； 而在公司長期績效方面，實證結果發現本研究變數對於公司的一年期長期報酬並無解釋能力；在二年期長期報酬的部分，內部人持股比率的增加以及興櫃期間越長，公司會有顯著較佳的長期報酬。其他特徵則與公司長期績效無顯著關聯，興櫃期間公司各項特徵之變動幅度並無法有效解釋公司長期績效。

自從1993年開始台灣已達到世界衛生組織所訂之老化標準，開始邁入老化國家之林，發展長期照護政策已是刻不容緩之事，政府也開始陸續推出相關計畫，但在發展初期，政府的長照政策無法滿足所有民眾的需求，再加上看到非營利組織所做出的成績，漸漸開始與非營利組織合作。現今多元化的社會中，社會福利的輸送方式已和過去大不相同，是由政策網絡中各方的參與者共同合作執行的，其中政府和非營利組織幾乎展現相當強的影響力。因此，不論是政府或非營利組織的角色及功能都產生了變化，使得雙方在政策網絡中的互動及協力合作程度，影響到政策規劃與執行的成敗。 　　本文以政策網絡之觀點，分析政府與非營利組織在長期照護政策網絡中之互動、角色、資源狀況，並得出網絡內參與成員因環境與政策上的限制，參與者是有限的，在資源上互相依賴，目前資源上最缺乏的是人力及經費，人力的解決問題有建教合作、增加訓練場次、強化服務員專業形象、設立完整升遷制度等。互動的產生主要是基於資源的互賴，互動上的困難有本位主義、費用核銷問題、目標認知上的差異、承辦人異動率過高、財務補助與人力比例問題，為解決互動上的困難，通常是由第一線工作人員互相溝通，若溝通無效，再交由更高層來協商，層級會逐漸往上提升，但當問題過大甚至會影響整個長照服務的執行，則非營利組織會先將意見彙集至聯盟性組織，直接向中央主管部會進行政策倡導。

指數成分股調整效應是行為財務領域的一大研究課題。近年來隨著中國股市不斷發展，各類指數衍生品層出不窮，指數的編制和調整也就產生越來越大的影響。另一方面，中國股市仍屬於新興市場，指數成分股調整的效應相較國外發達市場也許存在其特殊之處。而面對這一重要課題，中國學界和業界的研究卻略顯不足。鑒於此，本文從短期和長期兩個角度來研究對中國股市影響最大的指數——滬深300指數的成分股調整效應。 在滬深300指數成分股調整的短期效應方面，本文從股價和成交量兩個方面進行了研究。實證結果顯示，在股票剛被調入指數後，股價會產生正的異常報酬且成交量上升，而被調出指數的股票成交量會略微上升且產生負的異常報酬。但是與國外的實證結果相比，滬深300指數成分股調整的短期效應並沒有非常明顯，本文認為這可能與中國股市機構投資人占比過少有關。 在指數成分股調整對調入股和調出股的長期影響方面，本文首先研究了指數調整後的長期股價表現，發現調入股的股價累積報酬優於指數，但不如調入指數前自身的股價表現，調出股則與之相反。接著對股東人數、機構投資人數量和股價波動度進行比較分析。研究發現，指數調整之後，調入股的股東人數會顯著上升，調出股的股東會減少，但該因素對指數調整後股票的長期異常報酬沒有明顯影響；指數成分股調整後機構投資人數量和股價波動度也有明顯變化——調入股的機構投資人增加，波動度降低，調出股機構投資人減少，波動度上升——且這兩個因素對股價異常報酬的影響是顯著的。另外，公司規模大小也是影響股價異常報酬的一個顯著因素。 / The effect of stock index composition changes is one of the important subjects in the field of behavioral finance. With the rapid development of Chinese equity market, stock index is playing an increasingly important part. Chinese equity market, on the other hand, is still at emerging stage, the stock index composition changes may have the different effect from that of the developed countries. However，the correlative study in China is far from enough. This paper investigates the CSI 300 which is the most influential stock index in China to find out the the effect of stock index composition changes in both short term and long term. In the short term, the study focuses on the price and volume. The empirical results show that there is a positive abnormal returns and increasing trading volume of added firms, while a negative abnormal returns and slightly increasing trading volume of deleted firms. However, compared with empirical results abroad, short-term effects associated with the change of the CSI 300 index list is not very obvious, which may be accounted for too little institutional investors in the Chinese stock market. In the long term, this paper firstly studies the long-term stock price performance of the index adjustment. For additions, cumulative return after index adjustment is better than that of the CSI 300 index, but is worse than the performance before the adjustment, while the deletions performance is opposite. Secondly, number of shareholders, institutional investors and stock price volatility are analyzed. There is a significant increase in the number of shareholders of added firms and a decline for deleted firms, but this factor has little influence for abnormal stock price returns. Similarly, for additions, institutional investors increases and volatility reduces, deletions are opposite. Abnormal stock price returns are significantly affected by the number of institutional investors and volatility. In addition, the company size is also a significant factor affecting the abnormal returns.

近年來，由於家庭型態急速變遷，受少子女化現象、公共衛生發展、疾病之有效控制，及科技醫療發達等影響，全球人口高齡化現象日益顯著。根據內政部統計統計，我國截至2012年止，老年人口所佔比率，已大幅攀升至11.15%，該現象顯示未來，老年生活之經濟安全保障，已成為國內重大社會課題之一，而政府為了加強老人福利服務、醫療照護與保健等，近幾年來更是積極規劃「長期照護」等相關政策。 在我國，「長期照護」主要係指針對缺乏自我照顧能力者，提供健康與社會照顧之服務，雖然各年齡層人口均有發生長期照顧需要之風險，惟老人係照護服務需求之主要族群；由於照護時間往往漫長且無法預期，其成本往往超出家庭成員可負擔之範圍，普遍認為需由政府積極介入；惟中央財政缺口日深，舉債額度業逼公債法之上限，如何籌措財源即成為首要之務，按政府目前規劃方向，係朝開辦單一制之社會保險因應。 然而，我國已開辦之社會保險種類繁多，根據立法院預算評估報告，勞保、退撫、國民年金保險三大退休保險基金財務缺口總額已逾台幣八兆元，且持續惡化中，如今再將全民強制納入長期照護之被保險對象，是否適當有待商榷，且長期照護保險未來開辦後，若仍維持「高給付、低費率」之設計，恐落入相同財政困境，使負債世代移轉問題日益嚴重，且影響基金永續經營。 況且，如何說服所有民眾願意繳納長達數十年之長照保險費，直至「有可能發生」身心功能障礙，且持續達六個月以上時，始得被列為長期照護服務之對象，獲取保險給付及相關補助等，亦是項艱難的任務；另外，開辦後對於國內經濟將產生之影響與衝擊，更須妥為評估。 本研究將以目前已開辦之社會保險經營現況、國家財政、經濟發展情況及各界觀點等為切入點，佐以他國實施之經驗為參考，並就各種財源籌措方式之優缺點，以及社會民眾之接受度等，討論我國長期照護財源籌措較可行之方式。 / Globally, population aging has become an increasing trend in recent years due to rapid changes in family patterns, low fertility rate, development of public health and effective control of diseases, and advanced medical technology. According to local statistics, as of 2012, Taiwan’s elderly population has substantially increased to 11.15%. This denotes the future economic security of old people which has become one of the major social issues in Taiwan. In recent years, the government has also actively implemented policies relating to “long-term care” in order to strengthen welfare services, nursing and medical care for the elderly. In Taiwan, “long-term care” means to provide health and social care for dependent-care patients. Old people are the primary focus of care services, although people of all ages are likewise at risk of requiring long-term care. Given the long-term and unexpected time involved in care giving as well as the high expense that families could incur, the government is actively considering a social insurance system. With the increasing gap between the national budget and the debt limit which affects the law governing government bonds, raising funds has become a priority. To establish a unitary social insurance system is the current direction that the government wants to take. However, Taiwan has already established various forms of social insurance. Based on reports from the legislatures’ budget and assessment, there is a financial gap in three major pension funds including labor protection, civil service pension and national annuity insurance, which has exceeded NTD 8 trillion and is constantly getting worse. Recently, there was an issue whether to require everyone to apply insurance with long-term care. By implementing a long-term care insurance in the future, there would be a constant need to maintain a “high pay, low rate” package that could possibly lead to a similar fiscal difficulty, which would increasingly aggravate the transfer of debt from generation to generation, affecting sustainable operation of the fund. It is also difficult to persuade people to pay insurance premium for decades until physical and mental problems occur and last for over 6 months. It is only during this period that people can avail long-term care services and receive compensation and subsidy. The effect and impact of introducing this form of insurance on the domestic economy needs to be further evaluated. With an established social insurance management status, the national budget, the economy and opinions from all members of society as well as experience of other countries should be considered as a starting point or reference in initiating such plans. This study discusses potential measures for long-term fund raising based on the advantages and disadvantages of various fund raising measures as well as social acceptance.

本篇論文探討在高齡社會下，如何透過創新保險商品設計，提高長期照顧保險以及年金保險的銷售。本篇論文包含兩部分，第一部分討論長期照顧保險以及年金保險可能隱含的逆選擇成本，利用台灣地區中老年身心社會生活狀況長期追蹤調查資料，估算不同的健康轉移速率矩陣，並計算可能存在的逆選擇成本。更也進一步探討不同的商品設計，對逆選擇成本的影響。第二部分則探討這兩種商品結合降低逆選擇成本的效果，過去的文獻指出長期照顧保險結合年金保險可以降低長期照顧保險市場的核保問題，以及年金保險市場逆選擇成本過高等問題。不同於過去文獻，本研究討論當兩種商品結合為一新型產品時，在具備同時吸引具有不同個人健康資訊的長期照顧保險被保險人以及年金保險被保險人之特性下，可降低多少逆選擇成本。若降低逆選擇成本的效果夠大，相信這樣子的商品設計能吸引更多被保險人購買，並有助於商業保險市場之成長，提供更多對老年社會經濟的保障。

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22289号 / 理博第4603号 / 新制||理||1660(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科生物科学専攻 / (主査)教授 平野 丈夫, 教授 川口 真也, 教授 森 和俊 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM