臺灣隨著戰後嬰兒潮步入高齡，加上生育率為世界最低國家之一，刻正面臨嚴重的少子化及高齡化問題，除提升生育率、減少本國勞動力外流、並爭取海外留學生、僑民回國就業外，補充外籍勞動力，以減緩工作世代壓力，實為我國的當務之急。 為了解外國勞動力在臺工作縣市分布的影響因素，不同於以往的研究，本文從縣市別角度出發，採用2006年至2015年臺灣21個縣市的追蹤調查資料，以外籍專業人員、外籍勞工、全部外籍勞動力為被解釋變數建立3個模型，並分別以最小平方法、固定效果模型以及隨機效果模型進行迴歸分析，結果顯示，影響外國專業人才來臺工作縣市分布之重要因素為產業因素與教育資源因素，而失業率、產業因素以及教育資源因素則為外籍勞工與全部外籍勞動力的重要影響因素。 / Taiwan, with the post-war baby boom turning into the elderly boom by time, coupled with being one of the lowest birth rate in the world, is currently facing serious population aging problems. In order to deal with this situation, Taiwan government needs to encourage fertility, reduce domestic workforce outflows, and attract overseas students and nationals to return home. In addition, it is also urgent to recruit foreign workforce to ease the pressure of domestic working generation. Different from the previous studies, this study attempted to understand the influencing factors of foreign workforce’s distribution in Taiwan by adopting a new perspective of observing each city and county respectively. This study used the data of 21 cities and counties in Taiwan from year 2006 to 2015, choosing the data of foreign workforce, foreign professionals and foreign labors as the dependent variables. Afterwards, the OLS model, the fixed effect model and the random effect model were conducted to estimate those variables separately. The results indicated that the industrial factors and educational resources factors were the main important factors influencing the distribution of foreign professionals in Taiwan, while the unemployment rate, industrial factors and educational resources factors were the important factors influencing the distribution of foreign labors and all the foreign workforce.

疤痕效應(Scarring Effect)所指的當一個人的就業歷程出現失業，失業將會對往後的就業歷程產生長期性的影響，且影響的範圍相當廣，包含收入、就業狀況、身心健康等等。然而，在所有年齡層中，青年是最容易失業且待在勞動市場中時間最長的群體。 　　本研究將在疤痕效應的理論基礎上探討：台灣青年在失業後是否會影響終生的就業歷程、造成長期性工作貧窮的現象。本研究試著從青年找不到適得其所的工作時，其實際工作狀況和生活來理解失業的成因及長期性影響。 　　本研究採取多元方法的研究設計，透過「人力運用擬-追蹤調查資料庫」以及「華人家庭動態資料庫」比較15-29歲有失業經驗的青年及無失業經驗青年，往後薪資及就業狀況，觀察失業的短期性及長期性的影響。並以深度訪談的方式，訪談七位不同背景且在15-29歲期間有3個月以上失業經驗的受訪者，透過訪談青年失業理解連續性脈絡，藉此理解疤痕效應的成因及疤痕效應造成影響的詳細情形。 　　實證結果發現不論觀察期長短，有失業經驗的青年的收入漲幅普遍會低於沒有失業經驗的青年，失業確實會對收入水準造成長期影響。就業情形的差異上，有失業經驗青年陷入再度失業的機率普偏高於無失業經驗青年陷入失業的機率。 　　訪談結果發現疤痕效應的原因有(一)工作經驗不足，無法進入職場；(二)雇主對過短工作經驗的負面評價；(三)人力資本難以積累；(四)社會關係封閉，難以向外得到援助；(五)工作經驗的中斷。 　　本研究透過疤痕效應的理論，指出失業對青年所造成的長期性影響。藉由實證數據及訪談結果，深入理解青年失業所造成的長期性影響及成因，作為解決青年失業問題及工作貧窮上的政策參考。 / The “Scarring Effect” means the unemployment of a person's career path, which will have a long-term impact on the future career path, and have the influence of a wide range, including income, employment status, physical and mental health and so on. However, youth have the highest unemployment rate in all ages and have the longest time in the labor market. 　　This study will explore the theory of scarring effect: whether unemployment will affect Taiwanese youth’s lifetime career path after unemployment, resulting in long-term poverty. This study tries to understand the causes and long-term effects of unemployment from the time when youth find jobs that are not suitable for them. 　　This study is based on a multimethod research approach to compare youth from 15 to 29 years old with unemployed experience and young people with no unemployment experience. Through "Manpower Utilization Quasi-longitudinal Survey" and the “Panel Study of Family Dynamics" in subsequent earnings and employment status, we observe the short-term and long-term effects of unemployment. And through deep-interviews with seven different backgrounds and those who had more than three months of unemployment experience during the 15-29 year old period, we understand the continuity of unemployment, the causes of scar effects and the details of the impact. 　　The empirical results show that regardless of the length of the observation period, the income growth of youth with unemployed experience is generally lower than which of those without unemployed experience. Unemployment will indeed have a long-term impact on income levels. The difference in employment status, the re-unemployment rate of the youth with unemployment experience is higher than which of youth without unemployment experience. 　　The results of interviews finds that the cause of scarring effects are contributed to (1)Lack of working experiences to get work. (2)Employer have negative impression on short working experience.(3)The difficulty of accumulating human capital.(4) Closed social relationships, which is difficult to get assistance from others. (5)Interruption of work experience. 　　This study, through the theory of scarring, points out the long-term effects of unemployment on youth. Through empirical data and interviews, we will understand the long-term impact and causes of youth unemployment as a policy reference to solve the problem of youth unemployment and working poverty.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(医学) / 甲第21007号 / 医博第4353号 / 新制||医||1028(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科医学専攻 / (主査)教授 川口 義弥, 教授 井上 治久, 教授 瀬原 淳子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Medical Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第21234号 / 地環博第170号 / 新制||地環||34(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 高岡 昌輝, 教授 藤井 滋穂, 教授 勝見 武, 准教授 大下 和徹, 准教授 浅利 美鈴 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

近幾年，風險值已經成為金融機構風險控管的重要工具。它的明確及簡單易懂是其讓人接受的原因，加上巴塞爾銀行監理委員會在1996提出的巴塞爾協定修正，規定銀行將市場風險因素納入考量，並允許銀行自行發展內部模型，以風險值模型衡量市場風險後，各種風險值的估算方法相繼被提出。 本篇論文是使用部分整合自回歸條件變異數（Fractional Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity，簡稱FIGARCH）計算長期利率期貨多空部位的每日風險值。選取的三支長期利率期貨是在芝加哥期貨交易所掛牌的三十年期美國政府債券期貨（TB）、十年期美國政府債券期貨（TN） 與十年期市政債券指數期貨（MNI）。 利率期貨的研究在過去文獻中，甚少被提及。但隨著利率型商品日新月異的發展，以利率期貨避險的需求也與日遽增。尤其在台灣，利率期貨更是今年新登場的期貨商品。因此，我選擇利率期貨作為研究標的，藉由以FIGARCH模型來配適波動性，提供避險者一個估算風險值的方法。 FIGARCH模型係由Baillie、Bollerslev與Mikkelsen於1996所提出，與傳統GARCH模型所不同的是，FIGARCH模型特別適用於描述具有波動性長期記憶（Long Memory）性質的資料。所謂長期記憶性，是指衝擊所造成的持續性是以緩慢的雙曲線速率衰退。而許多市場實證分析均指出，FIGARCH較適合用來描述金融市場上的波動性。此外，本研究的風險值計算，除了一般實務界常用的常態分配以外，還考慮了t分配與偏斜t分配，以捕捉財務資料常見的厚尾與偏斜的特性。 而實證結果顯示，長期利率期貨報酬率的波動性確實存在長期記憶性，所以FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型可以適切地估算長期利率期貨的每日風險值，不論在樣本內或樣本外的風險值計算均優於傳統GARCH(1,1)模型的計算結果。至於各種不同分配的比較，在樣本內的風險值計算，當α=0.05時，常態分配FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型表現較佳；當α=0.025到0.0025時，t分配與偏斜t分配FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型表現較佳，而偏斜t分配FIGARCH又稍微優於t分配FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型。 而樣本外的風險值預測，則有不同的結果，當α=0.05，t分配與偏斜t分配FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型表現較佳；而α=0.01時，常態分配FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型表現較佳。而且t分配與偏斜t分配FIGARCH(1,d,1)模型在α=0.01會出現太過保守的情形，出現失敗率（failure rate）為零，高估風險值。 / Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the standard measure used to quantify market risk recently, and it is defined as the maximum expected loss in the value of an asset or portfolio, for a given probability α at a determined time period. This article uses the FIGARCH(1,d,1) models to calculate daily VaR for long-term interest rate futures returns for long and short trading positions based on the normal, the Student-t, and the skewed Student-t error distributions. The U.S. Treasury bonds futures, Treasury notes futures, and municipal notes index futures of daily frequency are studied. The empirical results show that returns series for three interest rate futures all have long memory in volatility, and should be modeled using fractional integrated models. Besides, the in-sample and out-of-sample VaR values generated using FIGARCH(1,d,1) models are more accurate than those generated using traditional GARCH(1,1) models. For different distributions among FIGARCH(1,d,1) models, the normal FIGARCH(1,d,1) models are preferred for in-sample VaR computing whenα=0.05, and the Student-t and skewed Student-t models perform better for in-sample VaR computing whenα=0.025-0.0025. Nonetheless, for out-of-sample VaR, the Student-t and skewed Student-t FIGARCH(1,d,1) models perform better in the case α=0.05 while the normal FIGARCH(1,d,1) models perform better in the case α=0.01. The VaR values obtained by the Student-t and skewed Student-t FIGARCH(1,d,1) models are too conservative whenα=0.01.

本研究主要探討台北都會區都市蔓延與氣候暖化之關係，實證分析是否都市蔓延的發展形態會造成氣溫的上升。有研究指出台灣的歷年氣溫上升是因為近年來工商業急速發展，人口增加，建築物型態改變，交通運輸量激增等所致。國內外許多研究也發現都市化與氣溫是呈現正相關，而綠地與氣溫呈現負相關。 本研究實證分析部分使用地理資訊系統之內差法和空間分析方法，以及迴歸分析使用panel data之固定效果模型等工具，內插法之結果得到台北都會區年平均氣溫自1996年至2006年約上升1℃，有些地區甚至上升約2℃，且上升之溫度範圍有擴大的趨勢，呈現放射狀的溫度分布，此與都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態類似。使用空間分析方法則證實了一地人口數的增加會造成該地氣溫上升，並且也發現近來人口數多增加在都市外圍地區，這與上述氣溫分布和都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態也相符合。 迴歸分析結果顯示人口數對於氣溫有相當大之正相關，耕地面積對氣溫則呈現負相關，可見得擁有廣大綠地可以降低區域之氣溫，減緩氣候暖化，因此建議政府需檢討當前農地政策，配合環境保護，適合時宜的提出正確之政策。另外在各鄉鎮市區固定效果估計量方面，可以歸納出若一地區有廣大的公園、綠地、或是有河川流域的經過，對於降低當地氣溫有明顯的幫助；時間趨勢之固定效果估計量顯示台北都會區隨著時間的經過，氣溫將持續上升。因此在未來都市規劃方面，規劃者必須了解各地區特性，善加利用其自然環境以調和氣候暖化之影響、多設置公園綠地、多種植綠色植物、在道路周邊行道樹的設置、建築物間風場之設計等。如此將可以降低都市蔓延對氣候暖化的影響，以及防止氣候暖化的發生。 / In this study, we research the relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming in Taipei metropolitan area. Analyze empirically whether the developed shape of urban sprawl causes the climbing of the temperature. Some studies indicate that the reasons why the climate is getting warmer in Taiwan are the high-speed developments of industry and commerce, the increase of population, the changes of the buildings and the huge increase of the traffic volume. Some other studies also find out that there is a positive correlation between the urbanization and the temperature, and there is a negative correlation between the green space and the temperature. The empirical analysis in this study is based on the Interpolation Method and Spatial Analysis of GIS. And the regression analysis is based on the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data. The yearly average temperature increased about 1℃ to 2℃ in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1996 to 2006. Furthermore, the range of the increasing temperature has been trending up, and it reveals a radial distribution. It is similar to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl. By using Spatial Analysis, we prove that the temperature of an area increases when the population rises. And we find out that the population rises in most of the peri-urban areas. It also answers to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl and the distribution of the temperature as above. The result of using the regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the number of the population and the temperature and is a negative correlation between the farmland areas and the temperature. So that if there is a big green space, it can decrease the temperature in an area, reduce climate warming. For this reason, I suggest that the government should review our current farmland policy, which should be worked with the environmental protection policy, and bring it into practice at the right time right place. From the fixed effect estimation, we concludes that it helps decrease the temperature in an area obviously when there is a big park, big green space or where a river passing through. The time trend of the fixed effect estimation indicates that the climate in the Taipei metropolitan area will be getting warming with time goes by. Therefore, the urban planner should know better of the feature in each area, using the natural environment to accommodate the influence of climate warming. To have more parks, green spaces and plants, plant more trees by the roads, design the wind flow between buildings. Cut down the carbon production by using either way. Thus and so, we can reduce the influence of urban sprawl to climate warming, and also prevent climate warming.

本論文由三篇獨立的文章所組成，各章摘要如下。 一、第壹章摘要 第壹章主要在論述台灣多層次長期照護財務保障架構的概念與內涵。台灣地區因為人口老化快速，加上婦女總生育率的下降，使得高齡化、少子女化的社會漸次形成，使得長期照護需要日益增加，也弱化了家庭照護資源，降低家庭財務負擔的能力。而且，目前臺灣長期照護所需的費用，大部分由個人及其家庭支應，成為家庭部門沈重的財務負擔。此外，因長期照護制度服務輸送、照護管理及法令規範等不夠完善，照護需要者所接受的服務品質無法獲得保障。 本文首先從公平和效率的角度探討建立長期照護制度的必要性，其次探討長期照護社會保障模式的選擇。長期照護制度宜採社會保險或稅收制?基於稅收制長期照護保障體制，往往因財政負擔考量，設計資產調查的機制，以選取合格的低收入戶做為支付的對象，形成殘補式的長照制度，無法提供所有長照需要者，長照服務基本的滿足；然而，社會保險所提供的長照服務保障代表一種保證的權利，為被保險對象的合法權益。此外，在人口結構以及家戶型態的巨大變遷下，長照需要風險已非個人能力所能對抗，並且關係到整體社會的福祉，已經由個人性風險轉而為社會性風險，故本文主張採用社會保險的方式來提供普遍和基本的長照服務。 接著說明多層次長期照護財務保障架構的內容。第一層為社會保險制度，其功能主要在提供基本的保障水準，支付內容為實物與現金給付，財務來源則為政府、雇主與個人共同分攤的社會保險保費。第二層為商業保險，可以提供補充性的保障水準，採定期定額的現金給付方式，利用家戶所得以及不動產反抵押（reverse mortgage）的融資模式提供購買商業保險的財源。第三層為個人自付額，使用老年年金、個人投資理財以及不動產反抵押作為財源，享受優質的長期照護水準。多層次的財務保障架構可以達成不同層次的保障水準，又可以達成政府、市場以及家庭共同分擔財務的責任，兼顧公平、風險分攤與自我負責的目標。 繼則分析此多層次長期照護財務保障架構的可行性，最後利用財務數字來模擬分析公、私部門在此財務保障架構中適當的分工問題。最後，本文分析此多層次長期照護財務保障架構的可行性，最後利用財務數字來模擬分析公、私部門在此財務保障架構中適當的分工問題。模擬分析結果顯示此一財務保障架構應為可行：（1）以長期照護社會保險制度，提供第一層的基本給付水準保障；（2）在單純考慮家庭可支配所得的情況下，中、高所得家庭有能力購買商業保單來補充保障水準，享受適當或優質的長期照護服務；（3）如果加入不動產反抵押融資的方式，則有助於提高所有家戶長期照護需要者的保障水準。 因此，本文建議政府應積極規劃長期照護社會保險，鼓勵商業保險公司開發合適的保單，並探討不動產反抵押的市場需求潛力和供給面的障礙，研擬相關法律規範，鼓勵銀行提供長期照護所需貸款，進而創造不動產反抵押的市場，活用房地產資源來減輕家庭長期照護的財務壓力。對於金融機構部分，本文建議其可以考量台灣本地經濟社會條件，研發出合適的反抵押商品，在適當的風險管控下，降低所可能發生的金融風險，參考國外推行的經驗，研發適合台灣老人需求的產品內容，平衡供需雙方的利益與風險。另外，制定行銷人員相關作業規範，藉以提高借款人的信賴，並且設計應有的諮商服務作業標準系統，提供借款人進行決策所需要的資訊，以減少發生不適當理財規劃的機率。 二、第貳章摘要 第貳章探討長期看護商業保險市場發展的理論與實務。由相關文獻可以歸納出影響市場發展的因素，主要為供給面高交易成本以及不完全競爭市場。雖然市場存在不完全競爭，但是仍有給付範圍與內容全面性的保單存在，因此文獻上認為主要的問題應與需求面相關。 然而文獻忽略正式照護和非正式照護所提供的照護服務，在財貨特性的數量上的差異。這些特性如情緒支持、熟悉程度、服務品質以及自主性等，故本文繼則在考慮自主性和情緒支持兩特性下，分析該特性與消費者長照服務類型的選擇，發現重視自主性者，偏好正式照護服務，因而比較有動機去購買長期看護險保單，以降低並分散失能事故發生後的財務風險。當消費者有動機去購買保單時，消費者願意支付的保費高低，將影響其實際的購買行為，然而消費者的認知偏誤，對其所願支付保費會產生偏低的影響，以致發生不願購買長期看護險的現象，本文發現消費者願意支付的最高保費的金額，與失能機率和長照總成本的大小成正向關係，因此消費者因為某些訊息的認知錯誤，而發生有限理性的情況，將低估失能機率和長照總成本，最後影響其實際的購買決策。此外，對於台灣長期看護險保單在給付內容的設計，本文建立理論模型，以分析台灣消費者對於商業長期看護險契約的最適需求。 其次，在長看險市場發展的實務上，美國商業保險市場的發展過程，提供許多寶貴的經驗。其長看險保單市場的發展，除了導因於商品內容的發展符合消費者的需要外，政府部門相關法令規範的周延，以及相關監理單位的努力，增加民眾對於保險公司的信賴程度，更是扮演著關鍵的角色。另外，美國保險監理官協會所制訂的長期看護險條款範本，在平衡相關團體利益的前提下，增進消費者對於保險公司的信心。目前台灣長看險市場尚屬於初期發展階段，參與該市場銷售的人壽保險公司仍屬少數，因此存在某種程度的不完全競爭，然而因為目前台灣銷售的保單，實際上存在可以含蓋預期可能發生的照護成本總額。此外，現有保單在條款內容存在的缺失，主要有三項：（1）最高投保年齡只至74歲，相對於國人的需要應有相當改善的空間；（2）保險公司給付條件的差異，使得保單的比較更加複雜，將增加消費者選擇的成本，也可能增加理賠的糾紛。（3）不具有通貨膨脹保障的功能。 若以需求面而言，調查研究文獻顯示，台灣大眾對於長看險的接受程度不高。其次，有多數民眾對於其所擁有的其他保險，在給付範圍上有著錯誤的認知，而且因為保險資訊流通的不完全，阻礙長看險保單的發展。此外，以商業保險在長期照護費用籌措上的補充性立場而言，推估40歲以上的單人家戶與夫妻家戶的潛在的購買能力，本文發現大多數的家戶具有能力購買保單，因此本文認為此市場值得重視與開發。至於業務監理規範部分，在費率計算與調整、契約效力以及業務人員的市場行為上的規範，已有相當完整的內容；然而，許多的險種皆已有示範，用以保障消費者權益，但是在長期看護險部分則尚無示範條款。而政府部門並未訂定相關法規，以明確界定公部門和家庭部門的責任。前述分析，顯示監理單位與政府部門仍有許多努力的空間。 台灣長看險市場，現有保單在給付條件上，對於長期看護狀態的認定標準，各公司間著有相當大的差異，容易造成保險理賠上的糾紛。因此本文建議，儘速制訂長期看護保險單示範條款，規範長期看護狀態在身體功能失能認定最低的標準，以及認知損害的承保內容，進而保護消費者權益。此外，台灣既有法規並無長期照護之專法，現行相關法規見諸於老人福利法、行政院衛生署及內政部訂頒的各式行政命令，完整長期照護制度的建立有賴相關法規修訂。相關法規制訂的功能，除了建構台灣長照制度，並且可以提高一般民眾在長期照護的認知，亦可因為服務水準的界定，明確劃分商業保單的發展空間，發揮補充性的功能。 三、第参章摘要 第参章則探討不動產反抵押制度與在地老化，藉以探討此制度的利益與風險，並建構台灣的訂價理論模型，據以分析台灣引進該制度，對於老年家戶在地老化的意義。面對人口老化帶來的長期照護需要，長照成本主要由家庭負擔。而台灣地區老年家戶（老年單人戶和老年夫妻戶）所占比例2004年已高達12%，大多數老年家戶所得低落以致長照需求未能有效的獲得滿足，產生福利損失。在美國「所得低，房產多」的老年家戶可以經由不動產反抵押融資方式取得資金，補充個人在生活費用和長照費用等財務支出，達成在地老化的願望。 本文使用2006年家庭收支調查原始資料，以及內政部2006年房地產交易價格資料，推估老年家戶自有住宅的價值，藉以估算台灣不動產反抵押市場的潛在規模，進而建構台灣的訂價理論模型，分析台灣老年家戶使用此融資方式補充長期照護費用的受益程度。本文主要發現：（1）台灣不動產反抵押市場的潛在規模（高推估）約為6.1兆元，約占當年度家庭房地產總值24.4兆元的25%。低推估結果亦約有5千4百億元；（2）在長期照護社會保險提供基本服務水準的前提下，台灣老年家戶使用不動產反抵押融資，在長期照護費用的補充水準上對於所設定對象而言，可以適當的協助多數的家戶在地老化，進而提升其福利水準。本文推估結果顯示，台灣地區在市場規模上已俱備發展不動產反抵押的基礎，隨著家戶結構與少子女化的發展趨勢，此市場的需求將日益成形。反抵押市場的建立將有助於老年家戶，提升其滿足照護需求消費選擇的自主性，提高獨立生活的人性尊嚴，最終達成其在地老化的意願。 有關考量台灣本地經濟社會條件，因地制宜的制定出合適的法令規範，防止金融機構舞弊超貸的行為，降低所可能衍生的金融風險，對台灣的此金融商品市場的發展將是重要的關鍵。另外，符合台灣老人需求的產品內容的設計，不動產反抵押商品相關租稅優惠政策的制定，市場供給面的風險分攤機制，以及降低道德危險與逆選擇的商品契約設計，皆為後續研究的重要方向。此外，借款者事前的心理諮商與產品教育，也是提高商品接受程度非常重要的一個環節，經由心理諮商可以釐清借款人的動機，使得借款人可以更加瞭解此產品的正確用途，減少發生不適當理財規劃的機率。產品教育的功能在於協助借款人選擇適合其個人需要的融資給付的方式，以保障其養老資金需求的滿足。最後，政府部門介入供給的示範效果以及提供的產品與私部門產品的區隔亦為重要的研究方向。本文研究的主要限制在於無法取得收支調查原始資料中，擁有自有住宅老年家戶的市鄉鎮區域別資料，因此無法對於在同一縣市不同鄉鎮的房地產價值予以分開估算，此限制對於本文的模擬結果可能有所影響。

都市發展固然帶動了經濟成長、生活舒適、交通便利等諸多正面效益，但隨著都市不斷向外發展之成果，卻也帶來了都市內的空間擁擠、交通壅塞、空氣汙染、生活環境惡化等現象，以及都市外的分散、無秩序蔓延發展等環境問題。為解決這些問題，都市規劃者提出大眾運輸導向發展理念。從都市化之觀點來看，發展大眾運輸導向能降低都市蔓延，提昇都市內之使用密度，減少私人運具之使用，進而降低能源消耗、改善空氣品質。然而，運輸建設具有改變土地使用模式與活動區位，進而帶動人口、產業在空間上重新分布的特性；當運輸建設的興建促使周邊都市活動頻繁時，少有研究探討到大眾運輸導向帶來的效益，是否會隨著人口、產業往捷運沿線聚集，反而使交通流量增加，進而造成空氣品質愈加惡化之問題。因此，本研究從捷運營運前後台北市空氣品質變化之觀點，以台北市433個里之1995年至2006年為研究範圍，以懸浮微粒為汙染變數，運用空間分析法和長期追蹤資料實證分析法，探討捷運、人口及產業三者對空氣品質之影響程度。 / 研究結果顯示，人口密度和就業密度對懸浮微粒濃度有顯著正向影響，因此，政府在推廣大眾運輸導向理念，鼓勵人口和產業往捷運沿線發展時，需有完善配套措施，否則將導致反效果－空氣品質的惡化。而有捷運經過之村里對懸浮微粒濃度有顯著正相關；但是分析各年度懸浮微粒可發現，台北市年平均懸浮微粒濃度下降，且隨捷運路網愈加完善，空氣品質愈好。因此，捷運建設雖造成沿線懸浮微粒濃度的上升，但卻降低了整體懸浮微粒濃度，提昇台北市空氣品質。 / Urban development is driven by economic growth, comfortable living, convenient transportation and other positive benefits. However, the results of urban development also brought crowdedness, traffic congestion, air pollution, environment degradation inside the city, and sprawl development out of the city. To solve these problems, urban planners proposed mass transit-oriented development (TOD) concept. From the perspective of urbanization, developing TOD can reduce urban sprawl, enhance the use of space inside the city, and reduce the use of cars. Further, these can decrease energy consumption and improve air quality. However, a transportation system can change the land-use patterns and redistribute the population and industries. Few studies have discussed whether the benefits of TOD will gather people and industries along the mass rapid transit (MRT), where results in the increase in traffic and more deterioration of air quality are inconclusive. Therefore, from the perspective of air quality varies over time in Taipei before and after the operation of MRT, this study uses spatial analysis and panel data analysis to investigate the impact of MRT, population and industry on air quality in 433 villages of Taipei City from 1995 to 2006. / The results show that population density and employment density have significant positive effects on the concentrations of PM10. Thus, when promoting the concept of TOD and encouraging the development of population and industry along the rapid transit, the Government should plan and implement the proper procedure; otherwise they will result in rising air pollution. The villages along the rapid transit have significant positive effects on the concentrations of PM10. However, analysis of the annual PM10 concentration can be found that the annual average has declined in Taipei City; the air quality will be better with a more extensive rapid transit network. Although the construction of transit system will cause the increase in the concentration of PM10 along the rapid transit, it has decreases the overall concentration of PM10 in Taipei City.

21世紀是經濟繁榮及醫療科技進步的時代，世界各國面對人口結構快速老化、生命延長、慢性疾病遽增，及流感與疾病的可快速傳播，使世界衛生組織的功能逐漸受到重視。台灣各級醫院的病床幾乎都是急性病床，植物人在健保醫療照護體系中，被歸屬於慢性病非重大傷病，並無特殊的減免醫療支出與補助，僅提供慢性病床及有限的居家護理給付。我國自實施全民健保以來，減輕了許多急重症病患家庭的醫療支出，但健保收入在政治因素的介入下，永遠跟不上醫療支出；且健保局預估今（2009）年收支短絀約320多億(健保局，2008)。不免讓我們憂心未來醫療資源的可能枯竭，加上植物人在病情穩定後即需出院，無法長期留在醫院受專業及妥適的照顧，使得植物人照顧家庭在精神及經濟層面更是雪上加霜陷入困頓。為此，內政、社福、衛生等行政部門，實需積極整合介力協助；如此或可與先進國家的長照體系接軌，使植物人照護得到兼具專業、人性與尊嚴的照應。 本研究採用質性研究中的深入訪談法，以台北縣市植物人照顧家庭的12位家屬為訪談對象，以深入探討都會地區照顧家屬難兼具照顧及就業。照顧者是無酬勞的工作，易在身心俱疲下陷於下一個被犧牲者的情境，植物人家庭對植物人照料與甦醒期待及照顧過程裡對自我生命成長價值觀。訪談所得資料，經歸納、分析所得研究結果: 都會地區家庭結構的轉變，使得家庭照護人力不足，何況目前尚無新醫療可預測植物人何時甦醒，況且頭部病變照顧已久植物人再甦醒的機會很渺茫。大台北地區雙薪家庭聘請外籍看護工的型態，確實讓蠟燭兩頭燒的雙薪家庭，減輕了部份照顧人力不足及精神壓力負擔，但此終究非長久之計。但是，如何讓受照顧的植物人，享有品質的醫療與照護，從而體現生命之尊嚴與國家、社會照護、互助的價值，這正是長照體系建立刻不容緩。或許在可預見的將來，因著教育及社會觀念的轉化，我們可以欣然接受安樂死或推行生前醫療契約，坦然接受自己或家人在面對需要長期療護，特別是可能造成植物人情況的事前自在選擇。所以，如何建構可長可久且結合醫療、勞工、社福用以嘉惠老人及植物人之機構，是政府在拼經濟、擴大內需建設及增加就業，不可不亟力擘劃貫徹的重大議題。但這需要政府與民間一起攜手打造，使台灣寶島實現老吾老以及人之老的平和尊嚴人生之樂土。 本研究依據研究結果，提一些建議：一、對家庭之建議：均衡飲食、養成運動習慣、強化家庭生命共同體。二、對醫療團隊：建立醫院網頁、建構植物人疾病成因及預防之道、社工諮商團隊協助家庭以落實社區長期照護系統。三、對學校建議：課程加入生死學課程、強化衛教觀念及基本照顧方式、培養怡情興趣、學習紓解壓力。四、對政府的建議：政府各部會平台資訊聯結化、行政作業單一窗口化、政策宣導口語化、政策推行離島實施而後推廣至全國，應快速實施長期照護系統。 關鍵字：全民健保、植物人、長期照護、安樂死、生前醫療契約 / The 21st century is a time of economic prosperity and technological advancement. However, the world is facing challenges from the problems of the rapidly aging population, increasing longevity, the surging of chronic disease, in addition to epidemics and flues spreading faster then before. Most hospital beds in Taiwan are considered to be “acute hospital beds”, where vegetative patients are considered by the National Health Insurance to be suffering from a chronic disease and not as major illness/injury. There is no extra medical subsidy for these vegetative patients, and only limited payments for home care. Unfortunately, due to the inefficient funding for health insurance, we are concerned that medical resources might become exhausted in the future. Also, a vegetated patient is required to leave the hospital whenever his or her condition becomes stable. They are unable to remain in the hospital for long-term and professional care, which causes the families with vegetated patients to suffer emotionally and economically. Thus, studying ways for vegetated patients to obtain more professional, human, and dignified care is an important issue worthy of research. This study uses an in-depth interview method from quantitative research. 12 families with vegetative patients in Taipei County are the subjects of the interview. In-depth discussions are conducted on the difficulties for families who take care of a vegetative patient, and who have employment in the urban area. The information obtained was categorized and analyzed. 1. Nursing manpower insufficiency Due to the shifting of family structure in the urban area, there are not enough people in the family to take care of the vegetated patient. It is not possible to predict when a medical breakthrough will enable the patient to regain consciousness. Moreover, there is only a slight chance a vegetated patient suffering from head trauma for a long period of time can be revived again. 2. Dependence on foreign nurse aides By hiring foreign nurse aids, the dual-earner families in the Taipei metro area are able to get relief from the burden of caring for a vegetative patient. However, it is not a long-term solution. 3. The need for long-term care. Therefore, it is very important to construct a long-term care system for the vegetated patient to be able to receive quality medical care. Furthermore, Taiwan will benefit from showing respect for life, the importance of social care, and the value of helping each other. 4. Trying new concepts. Perhaps in the foreseeable future, we will accept things such as euthanasia or pre-paid medical contracts due to the changes in education and social attitudes. We might accept that one of our family members might be facing long-term care in the future, so any one of us is able to make arrangements before an unforeseen accident or illness results in becoming a vegetated patient. 5. Co-operation between the government and the people. This is an important issue for the method of constructing a long-lasting system that can combine medicine, labor, social welfare, and benefits for senior citizens and vegetated patients. However, it will take the cooperation of both government and the people to make Taiwan into a peaceful land that will respect their elders and respect life. Some suggestions have been developed as a result of this study: 1. suggestions to families: a balanced diet, exercise regularly, and strengthen the unity between family members. 2. suggestions to the medical team: develop hospital websites, prevent diseases that can cause vegetation, and the social worker consulting team should help families to implement a long-term community care system. 3. Suggestions to schools: add life and death lessons into the school’s curriculum, reinforce the concept of health education and a basic caring method, as well as increase community service, and teach methods for relieving stress. 4. Suggestions to the government: linking information by using a single window to handle all processes, use colloquial language for promoting policies, the policies should first be implemented in off-shore islands before being used in the main island, implement a long-term care system, and provide subsidies to those who hire domestic nurse aids. Keyword： National Health Insurance, Vegetative, Long-Term care, Home care, Euthanasia, Pre-paid medical contract

台灣資通訊產業面臨毛利率與獲利屢創新低的困境，但國內部分企業仍能維持高於同業的毛利率與獲利水準，本研究將這類企業稱為「藝匠型企業」，研究問題包括：（1）藝匠型企業應如何定義？（2）藝匠型企業的核心能耐為何？（3）藝匠型企業如何培養與延伸新的核心能耐？有哪些途徑？如何選擇？ 本研究採個案研究法，在手機產業設定五家企業為個案進行分析研究，發現藝匠型企業在擴大事業範圍前，會優先深耕特定領域的技術深度；具有主動實驗未來的精神和常態的知識創造活動，因此能把握先機，優先布局下一階段事業成長所需的技術；和該領域全球龍頭業者有深厚的供應商或客戶關係，除了是穩定訂單來源外，也能掌握或共同定義未來技術趨勢。 因此，藝匠型企業的核心能耐資產不斷提升，具有長期競爭力，而非短線的機運或能力，這也是能維持高水準毛利率和獲利率的原因。 藝匠型企業的核心能耐是實體技術系統、管理系統、員工知識與技能和價值觀的組合，這項組合深受創辦人與經營團隊專長影響，且藝匠型企業傾向以師徒制自行培育人才，員工需熟練公司專屬的流程與常規，這也使得外界不易以挖角形式取得該藝匠型企業的核心能耐。 藝匠型企業傾向朝產業上游延伸新核心能耐，延伸途徑可分為內部研發、外部併購與聯結研發三類；又以內部研發、深度聯結研發最能形成長期核心競爭力。 1. 內部研發是在既有資源（人員、時間、資金）充足、目標是重點新能耐時的第一選擇，通常可形成長期競爭力； 2. 外部併購或合資通常是為了快速卡位（快速取得新核心能耐及市場），併購是完整移轉其他企業的核心能耐，若整合成功可形成長期競爭力，合資則僅移轉其他企業的部分核心能耐，因此通常只是短期競爭力； 3. 聯結研發的速度與成本介於中間，有助於借外界長處、同時培養內部專屬知識。其中強勢網絡的深度聯結研發，表示參與者均投入較強的組織承諾，有機會帶來長期競爭力，弱勢網絡則因多方的組織承諾不同，通常只是短期競爭力。 / While the IT and Telecom Industry in Taiwan generally suffers from low gross-margin rate and profit, some companies still sustain these at a higher level than others. In this thesis, these outstanding companies are defined as “Modern Craftsman Companies.” The aim of this thesis is to find out: (1) How to define “Modern Craftsman Company”? (2) What are the core capabilities of a Modern Craftsman Company? (3) How does a Modern Craftsman Company develop its core capabilities and extend into new ones? What are the paths? How to make the choices? Research was conducted using case studies of five companies in the mobile phone industry. The results show that when Modern Craftsman Companies extend the scope of their businesses, they devote themselves to a certain area of technology and go deep into it. Also, their spirit of actively experimenting along with regular knowledge-creating activities results in their ability of foreseeing great opportunities. Lastly, long and strong relationships with leading suppliers and major clients not only brings stable and sustainable orders, but also help these companies have control over or even co-define the trends of future technology. Thus, Modern Craftsman Companies have an ever-improving core competence position and long-term competence, not just luck or abilities that only work in short-term. This is how Modern Craftsman Companies can keep a higher margin rate and profit rate. The core competence of Modern Craftsman Company is the combination of physical technical systems, the managerial system, employee knowledge and skill, and its values and norms. This combination is deeply influenced by the founders’ and management’s expertise. Because this kind of company tends to cultivate its talents using a mentor system and the employees need to know the process very well, it is very unlikely that it obtains its core competence simply by recruiting its staff. Modern Craftsman Companies tend to extend their core competence to the up-stream part of the industry. The paths include internal development, acquisition & development, connection & development: 1. Internal development is the best choice when the existing resources (human resource, time, capital) are abundant and the new aim is an important competence. 2. Acquisition and joint venture are usually used to gain a new core competence and market quickly. Acquisition is to have the other firm’s core competence fully transferred. If successfully integrated into the acquirer itself, a long-term competence is formed. Joint venture is used only to transfer some part of the other firm’s competence and usually merely brings short-term competence. 3. Connection & development works somewhere between the two above-mentioned principles in perspective of speed and cost. It helps by utilizing external expertise as well as developing internal exclusive knowledge. When the network of connection & development is strong, the involved parties commit more and therefore there is greater chance of forming long-term competence. On the other hand, when the network is weak, commitments on different parties bring only short-term competence.