近年來，隨著我國國民的壽命持續增長，人口老化愈加明顯。預期臺灣在2021年將進入人口零成長，2025年65歲以上人口比例也將超過20%（來源：國家發展委員會2014年人口推估）。人口老化帶來許多問題，如老年生活、醫療、以及長期照顧等需求，其中照顧需求與年齡正相關，預期需求將隨壽命延長而增加，需要及早規劃及因應，這也是今年通過長期照護法的原因。由於各國國情不同，對於長期照護的定義、補助及需求也不盡相同，有必要發展適用於臺灣特性的，推估長期照顧需求的所需之資源。重大傷病中的許多疾病與失能、甚至長期照護有關，由於全民健保實施至今已逾20年，重大傷病的認定標準及程序相對客觀、中立，受到民眾、學術、政府各界肯定。 有鑑於此，本文以全民健保資料庫的重大傷病資料庫為基礎，挑選八類引發長照的重大傷病，作為規劃長期照護保險的參考。本文以這些傷病的發生率、罹病後死亡率、罹病後存活率等，結合國發會所人口推估的結果，利用年輪組成法(Cohort Component Method)推估長期照顧的未來需求。研究發現：未來需求人口從2013年約10萬人，迅速增加至2060年的21萬人，增加速度相當快。而參考「長期照顧保險法」草案的給付內容，若聘請一名外籍看護每月20,000元計算，每人分擔將從2012年的$530元/月升至2060年的2,728元/月；若不調整保費且以隨收隨付計算，每人每月繳交400元長照保費，長照給付將從2012年每月13,353元降至2060年每月3,556元，由此可知壽命延長、人口老化將造成長照保險的財務問題。另外，本文考量的八項重大傷病較為保守，沒有加入老化、遺傳等因素的長照需求，預期將不足以因應實際需求，未來有必要引入商業保險來彌補社會保險的不足。 / In recent years, with the sustainable growth of the life expectancy in our country, population aging becomes more apparent. Taiwan’s population of ages 65 and over will exceed 20% within 10 years, before 2025. (Source: National Development Council - Population Projection on 2014). The population aging an prolonging life incurs a big demand for caring the elderly, such as the economic need after the retirement, medical cost, and long-term care. Among these needs, the demand of long term care was under-estimated and is only recognized recently. Thus, this study focuses on predicting the need of long-term care in Taiwan. Specifically, the definition and standard (as well as types and amounts of subsidy) for juding whether one needs long-terma care is not yet determined, although Taiwan’s government passed the long-term care law (Long-Term Care Insurance Law) earlier this year. We should adapt the notion of catastrophic illness (CI) and use certain CI categories, which are related to long-term care, to design the long-term care insurance. Catastrophic illness (CI) is one of the key features of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI), and the definition and process of evaluating if one is with the CI is quite complete. We choose eight categories of CI and use the NHI database to obtain their incidence rates, mortality rates, and survival probability. Together with the population projection from National Development Council in 2014 and the cohort component method to predict the long-term care demand in Taiwan. The syudy result shows that the population needing long-term care will rise from about 100 thousands in 2013 to about 210 thousands in 2060. Moreover, if the long-term care insurance is funded via pay-as-you-go, the individual premium required will rise 5 times from 2012 to 2060. This indicates that the long-term care might be too expensive and the commercial insurance can play an important role as a supplement.

本研究主要探討生技產業公開說明書之風險因子揭露對首次公開發行公司5年內的獲利能力做研究，想得知風險因子的揭露是否會影響公司獲利時間的長短。本研究以美國生技產業首次公開發行公司為研究對象，樣本期間為1997年至2012年。 許多文獻指出越來越多公司在尚未獲利前即先行上市，但公司未來的前景及獲利能力卻充滿高度的不確定性，而透過資訊的揭露可使該不確定性下降，因透過揭露，投資者可以了解公司營運狀況及表現，對公司價值能做較正確之判斷， 此時願意提供資金給公司營運，充足的資金使公司未來獲利機會上升。 本研究參考過去文獻，建立資訊揭露的四級指標加上風險因子所揭露的項目多寡，系統性地衡量生技公司公開說明書之風險因子，並以存活分析檢測假說。實證結果顯示：風險因子的內容描述越著重在某些特定資訊，例如：顧客資訊、重要員工資訊、量化資訊的表達、公司未來不確定性、財務需求時，公司未來獲利能力機會大增，而當更進一步的探究時，又發現對顧客資訊和量化資訊的表達越具體，越詳細時，也會使公司未來獲利機會上升。 / This study investigates whether disclosure of risk factors in the prospectus will influence the probability of the biotech firms to attain profitability. Data is collected for biotech companies of U.S IPOs issued from1997 to2012 as the research sample. Many extant empirical evidences indicate that the proportion of firms going public prior to achieving profitability has been increasing over time. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the long-term economic viability of these firms at the time of going public. Disclosures in the prospector may mitigate the effects of ex-ante uncertainty about firm’s value, and disclosures are potentially important means for management to communicate firm performance and governance to outside investors. Therefore, firms can raise more money by disclosing more information in IPO prospectors, because more information reperesent lower uncertainty between investors and firms.This study uses risk factors in the prospectus as concern issue and expects that the quantity of risk factors and the content or description of risk factors will influence the uncertainty and would mitigate investors’ concern. Referring to past literature, this study builds four-class index for disclosure score and uses two classifications of risk factors to systematically measure risk factors in the prospectus. The empirical results show that a biotech IPO with more information or some specific information of risk factors, like disclosures of main customers and key employees, will experience good performance after IPO. In addition, more detail descriptions in quantitative risk factors and customers’ information contributed to better performance in the future. In conclusion, disclosure of risk factors in the prospectus are related to firms’ probability of profitability after IPO as expected.

憂鬱症是盛行的精神疾病之一。慢性疼痛或是處在長期壓力情境的患者常與憂鬱症產生共病。在動物研究中，類鴉片delta受體制效劑能產生抗憂鬱效果，並且在發炎性疼痛的研究也指出類鴉片delta受體制效劑能展現抗痛覺過敏的效果。本研究主要利用大白鼠腦室內給予類鴉片delta受體制效劑SNC80以及三環抗憂鬱劑amitriptyline，來探討並比較其所產生的抗憂鬱效果在發炎性疼痛或長期壓力情境下與正常情境下的異同。大白鼠強迫游泳試驗被用來比較測試藥物的抗憂鬱效果；佛氏完全佐劑經由皮下注射至大白鼠右後腳掌底板來產生發炎性疼痛；腎上腺皮質酮經由皮下注射且持續21天來產生長期性壓力；西方墨點法用來檢驗在發炎性疼痛或長期壓力下，類鴉片delta受體蛋白質在大白鼠海馬迴的細胞膜上的改變。另外，拮抗劑實驗則用來確認類鴉片delta受體所產生的抗憂鬱效果。實驗結果顯示，大白鼠在正常情境下，SNC80及amitriptyline皆能產生抗憂鬱效果；然而在發炎性疼痛下，SNC80所產生的抗憂鬱效果有提高的表現，並且類鴉片delta受體蛋白質的數量在海馬迴的細胞膜上也隨著疼痛的時間增長而增加，amitriptyline則跟正常情境下的效果相似。另外，大白鼠在長期性壓力下，SNC80的抗憂鬱效果則沒有提高的表現，並且類鴉片delta受體蛋白質的數量在海馬迴的細胞膜上也未受到改變。本研究透過行為實驗提出類鴉片delta受體制效劑的藥理特性，並用分子生物學的方法來對應行為實驗的結果。本研究可做為未來類鴉片delta受體制效劑在治療慢性疼痛的憂鬱症患者上，可能發展為抗憂鬱藥的一個證據。 / Depression is one of the most prevalent mental illnesses all over the world. Patients with chronic pain or stress often have depression. Previous studies have shown that delta opioid receptor (DOR) agonists produced antidepressant-like effects in animal models and that antihyperalgesic effects of DOR agonists can be enhanced in rats under inflammatory pain. The aim of the study was to investigate and compare the antidepressant-like effects of a DOR agonist, SNC80, and a tricyclic antidepressant, amitriptyline, following intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) administration in rats under different states. The forced swim test was used to determine the antidepressant-like effects of test compounds. Complete Freund’s adjuvant was injected subcutaneously into the right hind paw of rats to elicit inflammatory pain. Corticosterone was injected subcutaneously once per day for 21 days to induce chronic stress. The western blot was used to quantify the levels of DOR protein on plasma membrane in the hippocampus of rats under inflammatory pain or chronic stress. In addition, antagonist experiment was conducted to verify the receptor mechanism underlying the antidepressant-like effects of DOR agonist. Results indicated that i.c.v. SNC80 and amitriptyline dose-dependently produced antidepressant-like effects in rats under normal state. More importantly, the potency of SNC80-induced antidepressant-like effects, but not amitriptyline, was enhanced in rats under inflammatory pain. In addition, up-regulation of supraspinal DORs was time-dependently associated with enhanced antidepressant-like effects of SNC80 in rats under inflammatory pain. On the other hand, SNC80 did not produce enhanced antidepressant-like effects, and DOR density was not changed in rats under chronic stress. This study provides evidence of the DOR agonist’s state-dependent effects and suggests that DOR agonists may be more effective as potential antidepressants for patients with depression comorbid with chronic pain.

本文首先構建了在完全資訊下的異質分群模型。當玩家可以觀察其他玩家的類型，則均衡必定是非隔離的：大多數玩家將無意移動，這是因為他們的夥伴可以為他們帶來最好的報酬。均衡狀態將會是一個有效率的狀態。     然後，我們構建另一個分組模型:訊息不完全和雙重改變下的分群模型。結果表明，雖然非隔離的均衡有可能是在短期的穩定均衡，但只有隔離的均衡狀態可以在長期維持穩定。這是因為在長期下，大多數非隔離狀態可以輕易地切換到隔離狀態的緣故。 / This paper first constructs a grouping model with heterogeneous population under the setting of complete information. When player can observe other's type, the result isnon-segregation: most players have no intention to move and they can match with the one who brings them the best payoff in the original group. The equilibrium state is always efficient. We then construct another grouping model with incomplete information and double mutation. The result shows that, although non-segregation equilibria may emerge as stable equilibria in the short run, only segregation equilibria can be stochastically stable in the long run. This is because most of non-segregated states can switch to the others by the same re-sistance and some of them can easily switch to segregated state, but it is hard to switch back.

學習表現為教育社會學中的重要議題，其中城鄉間的學習表現差距受到重視。過去研究認為家庭背景與地區的教育資源是影響學生學習表現的主要因素，然而這些研究缺乏班級因素與同儕效果的分析。因此本研究使用台灣教育長期追蹤資料庫（Taiwan Education Panel Survey, TEPS）在2001年與2003年的國中生樣本，以階層線性模型（Hierarchical Linear Modeling, HLM）分析國一班級同儕學習投入對國三數學表現的影響，學習投入以學生為課業所付出的時間為指標。分析結果發現：(1)學生數學表現的總變異中有24%來自班級因素的影響，76%為學生因素。(2)國三數學表現、個人學習投入與班級同儕學習投入有城鄉差距。(3)在控制其他變項下，個人學習投入、班級同儕學習投入對數學表現有正向效果。(4)班級所在地區的都市化程度透過班級同儕學習投入間接影響國三數學表現。 / Academic performance has been an important topic of research on educational sociology for a long time, while urban-rural differences have been already well documented in literatures. In the past, the literature indicated that the key factors to affecting academic performance are family background and the educational resources. But these researches have ignored the factors of class level and peer effects. In this study, the data are from Taiwan Education Panel Survey (TEPS) in 2001 and 2003, use Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) to assess how peer engagement affects junior high students’ mathematics performance. The time students spend in studying is an index of engagement. The main finding are: (1) This research model accounts for 76% of the variation in student level and for 24% of the class variation in class level with regard to mathematical performance. (2) Students in the urban and rural city show a differences in their mathematics performance, student’s own engagement and peer engagement. (3) When controlling variables, student’s own engagement and peer engagement have positive effect on mathematics performance. (4) Urbanization levels indirectly affect mathematics performance through peer engagement.

人口高齡化是一個社會問題以及商機。 日本比中國更早面對這個問題，所以在長期照護領域累積了豐富的經驗。 本論文藉由分析兩家日本長照公司商業模式的關鍵資訊（例如：提供的服務、客戶分群、營運點和特性）說明政策對日本長照公司如何在中國和日本營運的影響。 因為長期照護服務往往基於政府政策而設計， 本論文先介紹日本和中國的政策， 然後研究這兩家─ Nichii Gakkan和長壽控股作為個案公司。 這項研究結果將有助於致力進軍中國市場並需要計劃營運策略和服務內容的日本長照公司。 / Growing aging population is one social issue to face as well as business opportunities. Japan has faced the issue much earlier than China, and thus has accumulated expertise in long-term-care services fields. This thesis answers questions governmental policies effect on firms operation and on how Japanese LTC companies operate in China and Japan, by providing key information on their business models (e.g., services offered, customer segments, locations of operation, and operational characteristics). Since long-term care (LTC) services tend to be designed based on governmental policies and definitions, the thesis fist introduces policies in japan and China. It then investigates Nichii Gakkan and Long Life Holdings as case companies. This research findings would be useful for other Japanese LTC companies which aim to enter Chinese market and need to plan strategies and design service offerings.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22874号 / 理博第4640号 / 新制||理||1667(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 西村 卓也, 教授 久家 慶子, 教授 宮﨑 真一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地域研究) / 甲第18398号 / 地博第167号 / 新制||地||56(附属図書館) / 31256 / 京都大学大学院アジア・アフリカ地域研究研究科グローバル地域研究専攻 / (主査)教授 田辺 明生, 教授 石川 登, 教授 籠谷 直人, 教授 杉原 薫 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Area Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:09630040 研究代表者:江崎 光男 研究期間:1997-1999年度

本研究旨在探討「以常用詞根輔以圖像構詞式詞彙教學法」、「常用詞根無圖像構詞式詞彙教學法」及傳統的「詞義說明式詞彙教學法」在學生的詞彙記憶上的差異；本研究亦探討學生的英文詞彙量、構詞察覺度、短期記憶、長期記憶及拼詞能力之間的相關。 本研究的主要發現如下：接受「以常用詞根輔以圖像構詞式詞彙教學法」的學生比接受「常用詞根無圖像構詞式詞彙教學法」及傳統的「詞義說明式詞彙教學法」的學生表現出更好的構詞察覺度、短期記憶、長期記憶及拼詞能力。在這三組中，構詞察覺度較高的學生對生詞有較佳的短期記憶與長期記憶能力，反之亦然；在詞彙記憶方面，短期記憶力較佳則長期記憶力也是較佳，反之亦然；並且，一星期後的後測分數比較高的學生在一個月後的後後測分數也會比較高；再者，詞彙的短期記憶與學生英文詞彙量的差異無關，因為學生所記住的生詞都可以持續短暫的時間，但不一定能長久記憶。 / This study aims to investigate the discrepancy in the use of the iconic-morphological approach via commonly-used roots, the non-iconic morphological approach via commonly-used roots, and the traditional definition-based teaching method in vocabulary memorization. It also explores the correlation between English vocabulary size, awareness of morphology, short-term memory for words, long-term memory for words, and vocabulary spelling abilities. The subjects of this study are 91 third-year students studying at the National Overseas Chinese Experimental Senior High School in Taipei County. They received instruction in the iconic-morphological approach via commonly-used roots, the non-iconic morphological approach via commonly-used roots, and the traditional definition-based teaching method, respectively. In the beginning, the three groups took the same pre-test to examine their vocabulary size. Then, subjects were immediately asked to take post-test 1 to examine their awareness of morphology after receiving different instructions. Later, subjects were asked to memorize forty unknown words within twenty minutes and then to take post-test 2 to investigate their short-term memory for words. A week later, post-test 3 was held to check their long-term memory for words. A month later, they sat for post-test 4, used to explore their longer-term memory for the forty words. In conclusion, the study summarizes the main findings pertinent to the proposed research questions. The students who receive instruction in the iconic-morphological approach via commonly-used roots finally develop higher awareness of morphology, better short-term memory for words, better long-term memory for words, and better spelling ability than those who learn in the traditional definition-based approach or in the non-iconic morphological approach via commonly-used roots. Among the three groups, the students who display higher awareness of morphology have better short-term memory and long-term memory for words, and vice versa. Moreover, those who have better short-term memory have better long-term memory, and vice versa; those who have better one-week long-term memory for words definitely have better one-month long-term memory for words. Interestingly, students can learn words by rote for a short period of time regardless of their vocabulary size. That is, one person’s short-term memory for words is not correlated with his vocabulary size.