Nous présentons dans cette thèse des théorèmes d’existence pour des systèmes d’équations différentielles non-linéaires d’ordre trois, pour des systèmes d’équa- tions et d’inclusions aux échelles de temps non-linéaires d’ordre un et pour des systèmes d’équations aux échelles de temps non-linéaires d’ordre deux sous cer- taines conditions aux limites. Dans le chapitre trois, nous introduirons une notion de tube-solution pour obtenir des théorèmes d’existence pour des systèmes d’équations différentielles du troisième ordre. Cette nouvelle notion généralise aux systèmes les notions de sous- et sur-solutions pour le problème aux limites de l’équation différentielle du troisième ordre étudiée dans [34]. Dans la dernière section de ce chapitre, nous traitons les systèmes d’ordre trois lorsque f est soumise à une condition de crois- sance de type Wintner-Nagumo. Pour admettre l’existence de solutions d’un tel système, nous aurons recours à la théorie des inclusions différentielles. Ce résultat d’existence généralise de diverses façons un théorème de Grossinho et Minhós [34]. Le chapitre suivant porte sur l’existence de solutions pour deux types de sys- tèmes d’équations aux échelles de temps du premier ordre. Les résultats d’exis- tence pour ces deux problèmes ont été obtenus grâce à des notions de tube-solution adaptées à ces systèmes. Le premier théorème généralise entre autre aux systèmes et à une échelle de temps quelconque, un résultat obtenu pour des équations aux différences finies par Mawhin et Bereanu [9]. Ce résultat permet également d’obte- nir l’existence de solutions pour de nouveaux systèmes dont on ne pouvait obtenir l’existence en utilisant le résultat de Dai et Tisdell [17]. Le deuxième théorème de ce chapitre généralise quant à lui, sous certaines conditions, des résultats de [60]. Le chapitre cinq aborde un nouveau théorème d’existence pour un système d’in- clusions aux échelles de temps du premier ordre. Selon nos recherches, aucun résultat avant celui-ci ne traitait de l’existence de solutions pour des systèmes d’inclusions de ce type. Ainsi, ce chapitre ouvre de nouvelles possibilités dans le domaine des inclusions aux échelles de temps. Notre résultat a été obtenu encore une fois à l’aide d’une hypothèse de tube-solution adaptée au problème. Au chapitre six, nous traitons l’existence de solutions pour des systèmes d’équations aux échelles de temps d’ordre deux. Le premier théorème d’existence que nous obtenons généralise les résultats de [36] étant donné que l’hypothèse que ces auteurs utilisent pour faire la majoration a priori est un cas particulier de notre hypothèse de tube-solution pour ce type de systèmes. Notons également que notre définition de tube-solution généralise aux systèmes les notions de sous- et sur-solutions introduites pour les équations d’ordre deux par [4] et [55]. Ainsi, nous généralisons également des résultats obtenus pour des équations aux échelles de temps d’ordre deux. Finalement, nous proposons un nouveau résultat d’exis- tence pour un système dont le membre droit des équations dépend de la ∆-dérivée de la fonction. / In this thesis, we present existence theorems for systems of third order nonli- near differential equations, for systems of first order nonlinear time scales equa- tions and inclusions and for systems of second order nonlinear time scales equa- tions under some boundary conditions. In chapter three, we introduce a concept of solution-tube to get existence theorems for systems of third order differential equations. This new definition generalizes to systems the notions of lower- and upper-solution to third order differential equations introduced in [34]. In the last part of this chapter, we study third order systems when the right member f sa- tisfies a Wintner-Nagumo growth condition. To obtain an existence result in this case, we use the theory of differential inclusions. This result generalizes in many ways a theorem due to Grossinho and Minhós [34]. The next chapter concerns the existence of solutions for two kind of systems of first order time scales equations. Existence results for these problems are obtained with new notions of solution-tube adapted to these systems. Our first theorem ge- neralizes to systems and to an arbitrary time scale a result for difference equations due to Mawhin and Bereanu [9]. Our result permits to deduce the existence of so- lutions for systems which could not be treated in a result of Dai and Tisdell [17]. The second theorem of this chapter generalizes under few conditions some results of [60]. The fifth chapter presents a new existence theorem for a system of first order time scales inclusions. As far as we know, there is no result in the littera- ture for this kind of system of inclusions. Therefore, this chapter opens new doors in the branch of time scales inclusions. Again, our new result is obtained with the introduction of an hypothesis of solution-tube adapted to the problem studied. In the last chapter, existence of solutions for systems of second order time scales equations are obtained. The first result of this chapter generalizes theo- rems of [36] since the hypothesis used by these authors to get a priori bounds for solutions is a particular case of our definition of solution-tube for this type of problems. Let us mention also that our notion of solution-tube generalizes to systems the definitions of lower- and upper-solution used for second order time scales equations by [4] and [55]. We also generalize to systems, results obtained for second order time scales equations. Finally, we conclude this chapter with a new existence result for systems of second order time scales equations with a right member depending on the ∆-derivative.

Contexte et objectifs. En 1995, le gouvernement canadien a promulgué la Loi C-68, rendant ainsi obligatoire l’enregistrement de toutes les armes à feu et affermissant les vérifications auprès des futurs propriétaires. Faute de preuves scientifiques crédibles, le potentiel de cette loi à prévenir les homicides est présentement remis en question. Tout en surmontant les biais potentiels retrouvés dans les évaluations antérieures, l’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer l’effet de la Loi C-68 sur les homicides au Québec entre 1974 et 2006. Méthodologie. L’effet de la Loi C-68 est évalué à l’aide d’une analyse des bornes extrêmes. Les effets immédiats et graduels de la Loi sont évalués à l’aide de 372 équations. Brièvement, il s’agit d’analyses de séries chronologiques interrompues où toutes les combinaisons de variables indépendantes sont envisagées afin d’éviter les biais relatifs à une spécification arbitraire des modèles. Résultats. L’introduction de la Loi C-68 est associée à une baisse graduelle des homicides commis à l’aide d’armes longues (carabines et fusils de chasse), sans qu’aucun déplacement tactique ne soit observé. Les homicides commis par des armes à feu à autorisation restreinte ou prohibées semblent influencés par des facteurs différents. Conclusion. Les résultats suggèrent que le contrôle des armes à feu est une mesure efficace pour prévenir les homicides. L’absence de déplacement tactique suggère également que l’arme à feu constitue un important facilitateur et que les homicides ne sont pas tous prémédités. D’autres études sont toutefois nécessaires pour clairement identifier les mécanismes de la Loi responsables de la baisse des homicides. / Context and objectives. Laws with extensive background checks and making mandatory the registration of all guns have been adopted by some governments to prevent firearms-related homicides. On the other hand, methodological flaws found in previous evaluations question the potential of such laws to prevent gun homicides. By taking into account previous limitations, the main objective of this study is to estimate the effect of Bill C-68 on homicides committed in the Province of Quebec, Canada, between 1974 and 2006. Methodology. Using extreme bounds analysis, we assess the effect of Bill C-68 on homicides. Estimates of the immediate and gradual effects of the law are based on a total of 372 equations. More precisely, interrupted time series analyses were conducted, using all possible variable combinations, in order to overcome biases related to model specification. Results. We found that Bill C-68 is associated with a significant and gradual decline in homicides committed with a long gun (either a riffle or a shotgun). The substitution effects are not robust with respect to different model specifications. Patterns observed in homicides involving restricted or prohibited firearms suggest that they are influenced by different factors, not considered in our analyses. Conclusion. Results suggest that enhanced firearm control laws are an effective tool to prevent homicides. The lack of tactical displacement supports the concept of firearm as a crime facilitator and suggests that all homicides are not carefully planned. Other studies are however needed to pinpoint law provisions accountable for the decrease in homicides.

Nous introduisons un nouveau modèle de la communication à deux parties dans lequel nous nous intéressons au temps que prennent deux participants à effectuer une tâche à travers un canal avec délai d. Nous établissons quelques bornes supérieures et inférieures et comparons ce nouveau modèle aux modèles de communication classiques et quantiques étudiés dans la littérature. Nous montrons que la complexité de la communication d’une fonction sur un canal avec délai est bornée supérieurement par sa complexité de la communication modulo un facteur multiplicatif d/ lg d. Nous présentons ensuite quelques exemples de fonctions pour lesquelles une stratégie astucieuse se servant du temps mort confère un avantage sur une implémentation naïve d’un protocole de communication optimal en terme de complexité de la communication. Finalement, nous montrons qu’un canal avec délai permet de réaliser un échange de bit cryptographique, mais que, par lui-même, est insuffisant pour réaliser la primitive cryptographique de transfert équivoque. / We introduce a new communication complexity model in which we want to determine how much time of communication is needed by two players in order to execute arbitrary tasks on a channel with delay d. We establish a few basic lower and upper bounds and compare this new model to existing models such as the classical and quantum two-party models of communication. We show that the standard communication complexity of a function, modulo a factor of d/ lg d, constitutes an upper bound to its communication complexity on a delayed channel. We introduce a few examples on which a clever strategy depending on the delay procures a significant advantage over the naïve implementation of an optimal communication protocol. We then show that a delayed channel can be used to implement a cryptographic bit swap, but is insufficient on its own to implement an oblivious transfer scheme.

This thesis is a collection of three essays on inflation expectations, forecasting uncertainty, and the role of uncertainty in sequential auctions, all using experimental approach. Chapter 1 studies how individuals forecast inflation in fictitious macroeconomic setup and analyzes the effect of monetary policy rules on their decisions. Results display heterogeneity in inflation forecasting rules and demonstrate the importance of adaptive learning forecasting if model switching is assumed. Chapter 2 extends the analysis from Chapter 1 by analyzing individual inflation forecasting uncertainty. Results show that confidence intervals depend on inflation variance and business cycle phase, have a strong inertia, and are often asymmetric. Finally, Chapter 3 analyzes the role of uncertainty about the number of bidders for the behavior of subjects in a sequential auction experiment. Uncertainty does not aggravate price decline, but it changes individual bidding strategies and auction efficiency. / Esta tesis consta de tres ensayos sobre las expectativas de inflación, la incertidumbre de la predicción, y la importancia de la incertidumbre en subastas secuenciales. Todos ellos utilizan un método experimental. El capítulo 1 estudia cómo los individuos predicen la inflación en la economía ficticia y analiza el efecto de las reglas de política monetaria en sus decisiones. Los resultados revelan la heterogeneidad en las reglas de predicción de la inflación y demuestran la importancia del mecanismo de aprendizaje adaptivo si el cambio entre los modelos se supone. Capítulo 2 continúa el análisis del capítulo 1, analiza la incertidumbre individual de las expectativas de inflación. Los resultados muestran que los intervalos de confianza dependen de varianza de la inflación y la fase del ciclo económico, tienen una fuerte inercia, y son frecuentemente asimétricos. Por último, el capítulo 3 analiza la influencia de la incertidumbre sobre el número de oferentes en el comportamiento de los individuos en un experimento de la subasta secuencial. La incertidumbre no agrava la caída de los precios, pero cambia las estrategias de los oferentes y la eficiencia de la subasta.

This thesis deals with the problem of estimating the velocity of a mobile station (MS)in a mobile communication system using the instantaneous frequency (IF) of the received signal at the MS antenna. This estimate is essential for satisfactory handover performance, effective dynamic channel assignment, and optimisation of adaptive multiple access wireless receivers. Conventional methods for estimating the MS velocity are based either on the statistics of the envelope or quadrature components of the received signal. In chapter 4 of the thesis, we show that their performance deteriorates in the presence of shadowing. Other velocity estimators have also been proposed which require prior estimation of the channel or the average received power. These are generally difficult to obtain due to the non-stationary nature of the received signal. An appropriate window which depends on the unknown MS velocity must first be applied in order to accurately estimate the required quantities. Using the statistics of the IF of the received signal at the MS antenna given in chapter 3, new velocity estimators are proposed in chapter 4 of this thesis. The proposed estimators are based on the moments, zero-crossing rate, and covariance of the received IF. Since the IF of the received signal is not affected by any amplitude distortion, the proposed IF-based estimators are robust to shadowing and propagation path-loss. The estimators for the MS velocity in a macro- and micro-cellular system are presented separately. A macro-cell system can be considered as a special case of a micro-cell in which there is no line-of-sight component at the receiver antenna. It follows that those estimators which are derived for micro-cells can be used in a macro-cell as well. In chapter 4, we analyse the performance of the proposed velocity estimators in the presence of additive noise, non-isotropic scattering, and shadowing. We also prove analytically that the proposed velocity estimators outperform the existing methods in the presence of shadowing and additive noise. The proposed IF-based estimators need prior estimation of both the IF of the received signal and Ricean K-factor. The IF estimation in a typical wireless environment, can be considered as a special case of a general problem of IF estimation in the presence of multiplicative and additive noise. In chapter 5, we show that current time-frequency approaches to this problem which are based on the peak of a time-frequency distribution (TFD) of the signal, fail because of the special shape of the power spectral density of the multiplicative noise in a wireless environment. To overcome this drawback, the use of the first-order moment of a TFD is studied in chapter 5. Theoretical analysis and simulations show that the IF estimator based on the first-order moment of a TFD exhibits negligible bias when the signal-to-additive noise ratio is more than 10 dB. The Ricean K-factor is not only necessary for velocity estimation in micro-cells, but also is a measure of the severity of fading and a good indicator of the channel quality. Two new methods for estimating the Ricean K-factor based on the first two moments of the envelope of the received signal, are proposed in chapter 6. Performance analysis presented in chapter 6, prove that the proposed K estimators are robust to non-isotropic scattering. Theoretical analysis and simulations which are presented in chapters 4 and 7 of this thesis, prove that the proposed velocity and K estimators outperform existing estimators in the presence of shadowing and additive noise.

No description available.

Ce travail de recherche traite le problème inverse d’estimation de la distribution de tailles de particules (DTP) à partir des données de la diffusion dynamique de lumière (DLS). Les méthodes actuelles d’estimation souffrent de la mauvaise répétabilité des résultats d’estimation et de la faible capacité à séparer les composantes d’un échantillon multimodal de particules. L’objectif de cette thèse est de développer de nouvelles méthodes plus performantes basées sur les techniques d’inférence bayésienne et cela en exploitant la diversité angulaire des données de la DLS. Nous avons proposé tout d’abord une méthode non paramétrique utilisant un modèle « free-form » mais qui nécessite une connaissance a priori du support de la DTP. Pour éviter ce problème, nous avons ensuite proposé une méthode paramétrique fondée sur la modélisation de la DTP en utilisant un modèle de mélange de distributions gaussiennes. Les deux méthodes bayésiennes proposées utilisent des algorithmes de simulation de Monte-Carlo par chaînes de Markov. Les résultats d’analyse de données simulées et réelles montrent la capacité des méthodes proposées à estimer des DTPs multimodales avec une haute résolution et une très bonne répétabilité. Nous avons aussi calculé les bornes de Cramér-Rao du modèle de mélange de distributions gaussiennes. Les résultats montrent qu’il existe des valeurs d’angles privilégiées garantissant des erreurs minimales sur l’estimation de la DTP. / This research work treats the inverse problem of particle size distribution (PSD) estimation from dynamic light scattering (DLS) data. The current DLS data analysis methods have bad estimation results repeatability and poor ability to separate the components (resolution) of a multimodal sample of particles. This thesis aims to develop new and more efficient estimation methods based on Bayesian inference techniques by taking advantage of the angular diversity of the DLS data. First, we proposed a non-parametric method based on a free-form model with the disadvantage of requiring a priori knowledge of the PSD support. To avoid this problem, we then proposed a parametric method based on modelling the PSD using a Gaussian mixture model. The two proposed Bayesian methods use Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithms. The obtained results, on simulated and real DLS data, show the capability of the proposed methods to estimate multimodal PSDs with high resolution and better repeatability. We also computed the Cramér-Rao bounds of the Gaussian mixture model. The results show that there are preferred angle values ensuring minimum error on the PSD estimation.

Submitted by Bernardo Andrade Lyrio Modenesi (bmodenesi@gmail.com) on 2015-07-22T21:31:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 modenesi_thesis_v4whatseparatemen.pdf: 819403 bytes, checksum: d0a2f018fe44526173ae5b3f9e4c13a9 (MD5) / Rejected by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Bernardo bom dia, Nome da fundação e escola em negrito, o trabalho é em inglês vem primeiro o ABSTRACT depois o RESUMO e para aprovar o trabalho é necessário o seu orientador encaminhar e-mail para o cmcd@fgv.br com o novo Título autorizando o protocolo da versão final. Aguardo! Grata. Suzi 3799-7876 on 2015-07-23T11:30:51Z (GMT) / Submitted by Bernardo Andrade Lyrio Modenesi (bmodenesi@gmail.com) on 2015-07-23T14:56:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 modenesi_thesis_v4.pdf: 819610 bytes, checksum: 8482a7c46b6c9bada5d33905e41147d7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2015-07-23T17:16:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 modenesi_thesis_v4.pdf: 819610 bytes, checksum: 8482a7c46b6c9bada5d33905e41147d7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-23T18:29:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 modenesi_thesis_v4.pdf: 819610 bytes, checksum: 8482a7c46b6c9bada5d33905e41147d7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-25 / When estimating policy parameters, also known as treatment effects, the assignment to treatment mechanism almost always causes endogeneity and thus bias many of these policy parameters estimates. Additionally, heterogeneity in program impacts is more likely to be the norm than the exception for most social programs. In situations where these issues are present, the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) parameter estimation makes use of an instrument to avoid assignment bias and simultaneously to account for heterogeneous effects throughout individuals. Although this parameter is point identified in the literature, the assumptions required for identification may be strong. Given that, we use weaker assumptions in order to partially identify the MTE, i.e. to stablish a methodology for MTE bounds estimation, implementing it computationally and showing results from Monte Carlo simulations. The partial identification we perfom requires the MTE to be a monotone function over the propensity score, which is a reasonable assumption on several economics' examples, and the simulation results shows it is possible to get informative even in restricted cases where point identification is lost. Additionally, in situations where estimated bounds are not informative and the traditional point identification is lost, we suggest a more generic method to point estimate MTE using the Moore-Penrose Pseudo-Invese Matrix, achieving better results than traditional methods. / A estimação de parâmetros relevantes no contexto de intervenções políticas, também conhecidos como efeitos de tratamento, enfrenta diversos problemas práticos como o viés relacionado ao mecanismo de atribuição do status de tratamento. Adicionalmente, efeitos heterogênos na literatura de Avaliação de Impactos é mais comum que efeitos homogêneos. Em situações nas quais estes problemas estão presentes, a estimação do Efeito Marginal de Tratamento (MTE) emprega o método de variáveis instrumentais para contornar o viés de seleção ao tratamento, obtendo ao mesmo tempo efeitos heterogêneos. Mesmo que a literatura identifique pontualmente este parâmetro, as hipóteses por trás da identificação são costumeiramente restritivas. Neste trabalho pretende-se afrouxar as hipóteses vigentes na literatura de modo a obter identificação parcial do MTE, requerendo apenas monotonicidade do mesmo ao longo das diferentes propensões ao tratamento, o que é comum em diversos exemplos da literatura econômica. Simulações de Monte Carlo são performadas, resultando em limites para o MTE que se mostram informativos, mesmo em situações restritas nas quais a tradicional identificação pontual é perdida. Complementarmente, em situações quando a identificação parcial não é informativa e a tradicional ponto identificação é perdida, propomos a ponto identificação utilizando a matrix pseudo inversa de Moore-Penrose. Esta metodologia prescinde da hipótese de monotonicidade e resulta em melhores estimativas quando comparada aos métodos tradicionais.

This study empirically investigates the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in three Southern African Development Community countries, namely: Malawi, Zambia, and South Africa, using annual data for the period 1970-2013. The study uses the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing approach to co-integration and error correction model. In Malawi, the study finds that investment, human capital development, and international trade are positively associated, while inflation is negatively associated with economic growth in the short run. In the long run, the results reveal that investment, human capital development, and international trade are positively and significantly associated, while population growth and inflation are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In Zambia, the short-run results reveal that investment and human capital development are positively and significantly associated, while government consumption, international trade, and foreign aid are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. The long-run results reveal that investment and human capital development are positively and significantly associated, while foreign aid is negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In South Africa, the study results show that in the short run, investment is positively and significantly associated, while population growth and government consumption are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In the long run, the results reveal that economic growth is positively and significantly associated with investment, human capital development, and international trade, but negatively and significantly associated with population growth, government consumption, and inflation. These results all have significant policy implications. It is recommended that Malawian authorities should focus on strategies that attract investment: in addition there is a need to improve the quality of education, encourage export diversification, reduce population growth, and ensure inflation stability. Similarly Zambian authorities should focus on creation of incentives that attract investment, provision of quality education: moreover they need to improve government effectiveness, encourage international trade and ensure the effectiveness of development aid. South African authorities are recommended to focus on policies that attract investments, the provision of quality education, and trade liberalisation: concomitantly there is also a need to reduce population growth, government consumption and inflation. / Economics / Ph.D. (Economics)

Le Network Calculus est une théorie visant à calculer des bornes pire-cas sur les performances des réseaux de communication. Le réseau est modélisé par un graphe orienté où les noeuds représentent des serveurs, et les flux traversant le réseau doivent suivre les arcs. S'ajoutent à cela des contraintes sur les courbes de trafic (la quantité de données passées par un point depuis la mise en route du réseau) et sur les courbes de service (la quantité de travail fournie par chaque serveur). Pour borner les performances pire-cas, comme la charge en différents points ou les délais de bout en bout, ces enveloppes sont combinées à l'aide d'opérateurs issus notamment des algèbres tropicales : min, +, convolution-(min, +)... Cette thèse est centrée sur l'algorithmique du Network Calculus, à savoir comment rendre effectif ce formalisme. Ce travail nous a amené d'abord à comparer les variations présentes dans la littérature sur les modèles utilisés, révélant des équivalences d'expressivité comme entre le Real-Time Calculus et le Network Calculus. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons proposé un nouvel opérateur (min, +) pour traiter le calcul de performances en présence d'agrégation de flux, et nous avons étudié le cas des réseaux sans dépendances cycliques sur les flux et avec politique de service quelconque. Nous avons montré la difficulté algorithmique d'obtenir précisément les pires cas, mais nous avons aussi fourni une nouvelle heuristique pour les calculer. Elle s'avère de complexité polynomiale dans des cas intéressants. / Network Calculus is a theory aiming at computing worst-case bounds on performances in communication networks. The network is usually modelled by a digraph : the servers are located on the nodes and the flows must follow path in the digraph. There are constraints on the trafic curves (how much data have been through a given point since the activation of the network) and on the service curves (how much work each server may provide). To derive bounds on the worst-case performances, as the backlog or the end-to-end delay, these envelopes are combined thanks to tropical algebra operators: min, +, convolution... This thesis focuses on Network Calculus algorithmics, that is how effective is this formalism. This work led us to compare various models in the litterature, and to show expressiveness equivalence between Real-Time Calculus and Network Calculus. Then, we suggested a new (min, +) operator to compute performances bounds in networks with agregated flows and we studied feed-forward networks under blind multiplexing. We showed the difficulty to compute these bounds, but we gave an heuristic, which is polynomial for interesting cases.