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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
51

O valor preditivo do resultado líquido contábil, dos accruals e do fluxo de caixa operacional das empresas do mercado segurador brasileiro / The predictive value of the earnings, accruals and operating cash flow of the companies of the Brazilian insurance market

Jorge Andrade Costa 30 March 2015 (has links)
O objetivo principal desta tese foi de verificar se as variáveis contábeis resultado líquido contábil, os accruals e os fluxos de caixa operacionais divulgados (FCOs) possuem capacidade de prever fluxos de caixa operacionais das empresas do mercado segurador brasileiro reguladas pela Susep. Adicionalmente foi verificado qual das três variáveis contábeis foi a mais eficiente na previsão, bem como se os accruals conseguem incrementar a capacidade preditiva dos FCOs. Foram analisadas 2.876 demonstrações contábeis semestrais divulgadas por 200 empresas relativas ao período iniciado em 30 de junho de 2005 e terminado em 31 de dezembro de 2013. A base de dados é original. As empresas foram segregadas em cinco segmentos (seguradoras, resseguradoras, sociedades de capitalização, entidades abertas de previdência complementar sem fins lucrativos (EAPCs) e empresas de vida e previdência), em função de suas especificidades. Foram realizadas análises descritivas e análise de dados em painel para verificar a relação existente entre as variáveis. Percebeu-se que as entradas e saídas de caixa provenientes das aplicações financeiras das empresas (resgates e aplicações) são alocadas na Demonstração dos Fluxos de Caixa (DFC) como atividades operacionais e não como de investimentos. Diante deste fato, os procedimentos estatísticos aplicados aos FCOs também foram aplicados aos fluxos de caixa operacionais modificados (MODs), os quais contemplam a reclassificação das movimentações das aplicações financeiras das atividades operacionais para as atividades de investimentos da DFC. A finalidade de também testar o MOD foi de verificar se o mesmo é mais adequado do que o atualmente divulgado (FCO) e se há melhora na sua capacidade preditiva. Os resultados da previsão dos FCOs mostram que as seguintes variáveis contábeis possuem capacidade de prever FCOs do período subsequente, em cada segmento: (a) as três variáveis, nas empresas de vida e previdência e nas seguradoras; (b) o resultado líquido contábil e o FCO, nas resseguradoras; (c) o resultado líquido contábil, nas sociedades de capitalização; e (d) nenhuma variável contábil, nas EAPCs. Os resultados mostram que somente nas empresas de vida e previdência os accruals incrementam a capacidade preditiva do FCO. Quanto ao preditor mais eficiente, os resultados apresentados apontam que o resultado líquido contábil foi mais eficiente nas resseguradoras e nas sociedades de capitalização e os accruals foram mais eficientes nas seguradoras e nas empresas de vida e previdência. A análise dos resultados dos MODs mostram, para cada segmento: (a) quais variáveis possuem capacidade de prever MOD no período subsequente; (b) qual variável foi mais eficiente para prever MOD; e (c) se os accruals incrementam a capacidade preditiva de MOD. Conclui-se que, apesar de distintos resultados entre os segmentos, as variáveis contábeis possuem capacidade preditiva, confirmando entendimentos do FASB e do IASB de que a informação contábil é relevante, pois é capaz de fazer a diferença nas decisões tomadas pelos usuários. Adicionalmente é entendimento do autor desta tese de que as entradas e saídas de caixa proveniente das aplicações financeiras dessas empresas deveriam ser alocadas nas atividades de investimento da DFC. / The main objective of this dissertation was to verify if the accounting variables: earnings, accruals and operating cash flows (FCOs) have the capacity to predict operating cash flows of the companies of the Brazilian insurance market regulated by SUSEP. Additionally, was checked which of the 3 (three) accounting variables was most efficient in the forecast and if the accruals can help to increase the predictive ability of FCOs. 2.876 financial statements were analyzed that were released by 200 companies for the semiannual period beginning on June 30, 2005 and ended December 31, 2013. The database is original. The companies were separated by 5 (five) segments (insurers, reinsurers, capitalization companies, not for profit open private pension entities (EAPCs) and life and pension companies), according to their specificities. Descriptive analysis and panel data analysis were performed to verify relationship between the variables. It was noticed that the cash inflows and outflows from financial investments companies (redemptions and applications) are allocated in the Statements of Cash Flows (DFC) as operating activities and not as investing. Due to this fact, the statistical procedures applied at the FCOs were also applied at modified operating cash flows (MODs), which include the reclassification of movement of financial investments of operating activities for the investing activities of DFC. The purpose to also test the MOD was to verify if it is more appropriate than the currently released (FCO) and if there is any improvement in their predictive ability. The results of FCOs forecasts show that the following accounting variables have the ability to predict FCOs of the subsequent period, in each segment: (a) the 3 (three) variables in the life and pension companies and insurers; (b) the earnings and the FCO in reinsurers; (c) the earnings in capitalization companies; and (d) none of the accounting variables in EAPCs. The results show only in life and pension companies the accruals increment the predictive ability of FCO. As the most efficient predictor, the results show that the earnings was more efficient for reinsurers and the capitalization companies and accruals were more efficient in insurance and in life and pension companies. The results of MODs show, for each segment: (a) which variables have the ability to predict MOD in the subsequent period; (b) which variable was more efficient to predict MOD; and (c) if the accruals increment the predictive ability of MOD. It follows that, although different results between the segments, the accounting variables have predictive ability, confirming understanding of the FASB and IASB that the accounting information is relevant, because it can make a difference in the decisions made by users. Additionally it is the understanding of the author of this dissertation that the cash inflows and outflows from financial investments of these companies should be allocated in investing activities of DFC.
52

Avaliação do uso de accruals discricionários: uma abordagem qualitativa quanto às práticas de auditoria e seu poder de mitigação

Leite, Rodrigo Romanato 13 August 2012 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:32:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo Romanato Leite.pdf: 735005 bytes, checksum: d78d736bf048f998493edfb524967d64 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-13 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The earnings management practices started to be researched more intensely, concerning international terms, after the corporate scandals occurred in the beginning of 2000 years In Brazil, this research topic has mainly focused the quantitative approaches (discretionary accruals evaluation and operational models discussion). The research that resulted the present work has highlighted, according to the statistical tests, that the companies audited by the Big Four have less degree of accruals discretionary regarding to the other companies audited by companies Non Big Four, then, showing that the largest audit companies have a larger capacity to mitigate earnings management. In the presented context, this work aimed to investigate which are the main factors that specify the higher power of the big audit companies (Big Four) in mitigating the earnings management practices. Also, it has being identified the tools used by the independent audit companies for the work performance process, which, among other aspects, could make easier the earnings management practices identification process. The research herein presented was performed using the qualitative method (exploratory by nature), and using as procedure the data collecting, heartfelt interview with eight audit professionals. The data collected were analyzed through content analysis, using the software NVIVO. In this research it was identified the main job differential factors of these companies: company insertion environment and abroad relationship, audit company structure, audit company exposure, audit tools, compliance with the independence rules, work methodology and audit procedures, auditors training and qualification. Also, it was noticed that the audit companies are able or not to use customized tools to perform the jobs, sampling extraction processes and results projection, being its utilization related to the audit company size. / As práticas de gerenciamento de resultado passaram a ser estudadas com mais intensidade, no âmbito internacional, após os escândalos corporativos ocorridos no início da década de 2000. No Brasil, as pesquisas sobre esse tema têm focado, principalmente, as abordagens quantitativas (avaliação de accruals discricionários e discussão dos modelos operacionais). A pesquisa que originou o presente estudo evidenciou, segundo os testes estatísticos que empresas auditadas pelas Big Four possuem menor grau de accruals discricionários em relação às demais empresas auditadas por empresas Non Big Four, indicando, assim, que as empresas de auditoria de maior porte possuem uma maior capacidade para mitigar práticas de earnings management. No contexto apresentado, este trabalho objetivou investigar quais são os principais fatores que determinam o maior poder das grandes empresas de auditoria (Big Four) na mitigação das práticas de gerenciamento de resultado. Complementarmente, identificaram-se as ferramentas utilizadas pelas empresas de auditoria independentes para o processo de execução dos trabalhos, as quais, entre outros aspectos, pudessem facilitar o processo de identificação de práticas de gerenciamento de resultado. A pesquisa realizada foi de natureza exploratória, com o uso do método qualitativo, utilizando como procedimento para a coleta de dados, entrevistas em profundidade com oito profissionais de auditoria. Os dados coletados foram tratados por meio da análise de conteúdo com a utilização do software NVIVO. Como principais resultados identificaram-se os principais fatores de diferenciação do trabalho das empresas objeto deste estudo: ambiente de inserção da empresa e relacionamento com o exterior; estrutura da empresa de auditoria; exposição da empresa de auditoria; ferramentas de auditoria; atendimento às normas de independência; metodologia de trabalho e procedimentos de auditoria; treinamento e qualificação dos auditores. Ainda, verificou-se que as empresas de auditoria podem ou não utilizar ferramentas customizadas para a execução dos trabalhos, e processos de extração de amostras e projeção de resultados, sendo que a utilização das mesmas pode estar relacionada ao tamanho da empresa de auditoria.
53

Contribution à l’étude de la qualité de l'audit / Contribution to the study of audit quality

Ouattara, Alassane 02 December 2016 (has links)
En gestion des entreprises, l’audit est un mécanisme clé de gouvernance en contribuant notamment à améliorer la qualité du reporting financier et réduisant, par là-même, l’asymétrie d’information entre les parties prenantes. Pour assurer un tel dessein, l’audit doit être de bonne qualité, c’est-à-dire, diligenté par des auditeurs à la fois compétents et indépendants. Au plan académique, depuis les travaux fondateurs de Watts et Zimmerman (1979), et DeAngelo (1981), la difficulté d’opérationnalisation de la qualité de l’audit reste présente, compte tenu du caractère inobservable de cette procédure. Fort de ce constat, cette recherche doctorale propose un cadre analytique de l’audit utile à l’étude empirique de ses conséquences économiques pour les parties prenantes de l’entreprise. En premier lieu, dans un contexte institutionnel dit d’audit implicite – l’UEMOA – et à partir d’un échantillon constitué de banques, au cours de la période 2006-2010, nous montrons qu’un audit de qualité s’avère complémentaire aux mécanismes de gouvernance traditionnels. Dans un second temps, dans un contexte institutionnel dit d’audit explicite – la France –, nous proposons une mesure originale de l’indépendance de l’auditeur afin d’étudier ses conséquences économiques pour les sociétés cotées. A partir d’un échantillon constitué de sociétés cotées au CAC All-Tradable, pour la période allant de 2006 à 2013, nous concluons que le renforcement de l’indépendance des auditeurs, aussi bien individuelle que collective, impacte significativement (1) la qualité des états financiers divulgués à travers une amélioration de la qualité des résultats, (2) le comportement des investisseurs à travers le coût du capital et (3) les prévisions des analystes financiers dans le contexte particulier des tests de dépréciation du goodwill. / In business management, audit seems to be a key element of corporate governance which contributes to improve the quality of financial reporting. For this purpose, it plays an essential role in reducing the information asymmetry between stakeholders and in ensuring the credibility of accounting numbers disclosed. Firms must be audited by competent and independent auditors. In this academic area, since the seminal studies of Watts and Zimmerman (1979), and DeAngelo (1981), the operationalization of audit quality remains critical for researchers, because of its unobservable character. This thesis, hereby, proposes an analytical framework for audit and empirically examines the economic consequences of this procedure for stakeholders. On the one hand, focusing on an institutional context of implied audit (i.e. WAEMU), and based on a sample made of commercial banks over 2006-2010, we find that audit quality through mandatory joint audit is complementary to traditional corporate governance mechanisms. On the other hand, under an explicit audit context, we test an original proxy for audit quality and study its economic consequences for French listed companies over the period 2006-2013. Our results suggest that the higher single and joint auditor independence are, (1) the better earnings quality is, (2) the less implied cost of equity is, (3) the higher disclosure on goodwill impairment testing is, which leads financial analysts to greater earnings forecast revisions.
54

Variable pay as a predictor of earnings management

Frisk, Niklas, Andersson, Max January 2016 (has links)
This paper examines the relationship between executive compensation – in the form ofvariable pay – and earnings management. Since most research is done on Americancompanies, and Swedish companies are adopting a more Anglo-American compensationstructure, we would like to study this in Sweden. We hypothesize that CEOs with highervariable pay are more likely to engage in earnings management. This study is done onSwedish companies listed on Large- and Mid-Cap. Using data from the companies’ annualreports we find no significant relationship between variable pay and discretionary accrualsusing our regression. / Denna studie undersöker relationen mellan kompensation till ledande befattningshavare –den del av lönen som är rörlig - och manipulering av intäkter. Då större delen av tidigareforskning har fokuserat på amerikanska företag, och svenska företag anammar en mer angloamerikanskstruktur av kompensation, vill vi undersöka detta i Sverige. Vi kommer fram tillen hypotes där vi antar att en VD med högre rörlig lön är mer trolig att manipulera intäkter.Studien är gjord på svenska företag listade på Large och Mid Cap. Genom att använda datafrån företagens årsredovisningar och Datastream hittar vi genom våra regressioner ingasamband mellan rörlig lön och diskretionära periodiseringar.
55

Earnings Management pre- and post IFRS Adoption : Results from Sweden, Finland and Norway

Dahlén, Victor, Lindberg, Daniel January 2017 (has links)
This paper examines the behaviour and use of accruals management (AM) and real activities manipulation (RAM) under local Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and if it has been altered following IFRS implementation in Sweden, Finland and Norway. The paper takes inspiration from Roychowdhury (2006) and Zang (2012) and use previously developed frameworks for earnings management. It provides empirical results with data from 1997 to 2016, focusing on companies around zero earnings and zero earnings growth. The results are mixed where the use of RAM through production suggests increased earnings manipulation. RAM, through discretionary expenditures, on the other hand are positive, which suggests that companies do not engage in these activities. The results regarding AM suggest downward adjustments. However, neither discretionary expenditures nor AM have a significant change following IFRS implementation. Overall, earnings management behavior in the sample appears to be limited. Although, increased RAM has been found regarding production costs, which suggest adjustments following IFRS adoption. Lastly the paper finds that studying one type of earnings management behavior, as often previously done in research, is insufficient in order to fully estimate earnings management.
56

CEO Stock Option Exercises : Private Information and Earnings Announcements / Exercice de stock-options des dirigeants : information privée et annonce de résultats

Selmane, Nassima 02 December 2016 (has links)
Cette thèse comprend trois chapitres. Le Chapitre 1 présente des généralités sur les stock-options et synthétise la littérature existante sur les attributions et les exercices de stock-options. Le Chapitre 2 examine le comportement d’exercice des dirigeants dans les plus grandes entreprises françaises. Les résultats fournissent des preuves de l’utilisation d’informations privées pour exercer les options loin de l’expiration. Le Chapitre 3 examine l'annonce des résultats annuels et sa relation avec la décision d’exercice des stock-options des dirigeants. Les résultats de ce chapitre indiquent que les résultats annuels sont plus susceptibles de dépasser les prévisions des analystes quand les dirigeants exercent leurs options proches de l'expiration peu de temps après les annonces. La probabilité d'annonces de résultats positifs est également plus élevée lorsque les dirigeants exercent leurs options et revendent les actions obtenues. Les résultats montrent également la capacité de synchronisation des dirigeants. Ils accélèrent les annonces de résultats quand ils doivent exercer leurs options à proximité de l'expiration, en particulier lorsqu’ils vendent les actions obtenues. Le Chapitre 3 montre que les dirigeants utilisent un niveau plus élevé d’Accruals discrétionnaires lorsqu’ils doivent exercer des options à expiration. / This dissertation contains three chapters. Chapter 1 presents a description of stock option compensation and discusses the existing literature on stock option awards and exercises. Chapter 2 investigates CEO exercise behavior in the most important French companies. The results provide evidence of information timing of option exercises. Chapter 3 examines annual earnings announcement and its relation with CEO exercise decisions. The results of this chapter indicate that earnings are more likely to exceed analyst forecasts when CEOs exercise their options close to expiry shortly after the announcements. The likelihood of positive surprise increases when option exercises are followed by stock sales. The results also show CEO timing ability. CEOs accelerate earnings announcements when they have to exercise their stock options close to expiry, especially when they sell the obtained shares. Chapter 3 shows that CEOs use a higher level of discretionary accruals when they have to exercise options that are about to expire.
57

Accruals contábeis, persistência dos lucros e retorno das ações / Accruals, earnings persistence and stock returns

Takamatsu, Renata Turola 19 December 2011 (has links)
A presente pesquisa foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de avaliar a capacidade dos investidores em interpretar os dados emanados pela Contabilidade; mais especificamente, analisou sua habilidade em compreender informações relativas ao lucro. De forma complementar, buscou analisar a existência de oportunidades de obtenção de ganhos econômicos por intermédio da adoção de estratégias de investimento com base em informações relativas aos accruals. A amostra compreendeu empresas não financeiras para as quais o banco de dados Economática dispunha de informações relativas ao período de 1995 a 2010. Foram descartadas da amostra as empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo, companhias com dados faltantes (missings), bem como observações com comportamento distinto dos demais (outliers). Por conta do baixo impacto dos números contábeis no mercado de capitais brasileiro detectado por Lopes (2005) esperava-se uma baixa presença da anomalia dos accruals no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Isso porque, países em que a importância dos lucros para os preços de mercado é reduzida, a precificação de ações seria menos influenciada pela fixação funcional no lucro final reportado o que, por sua vez, provocaria interferências na anomalia dos accruals (EL MEHDI, 2011). Para avaliar se a persistência dos componentes dos accruals era significativamente inferior aos componentes de fluxos de caixa, estimou-se uma regressão com dados em painel, na qual foi possível comprovar a hipótese de que os ajustes do regime de competência exibem uma menor persistência, com um parâmetro padronizado e estatisticamente significativo na regressão estimada de 0,43, enquanto os componentes de fluxos de caixa apresentaram um parâmetro de 0,53. A falta de significância estatística entre os accruals correntes e retornos anormais futuros das companhias estudadas, bem como, da ausência de retornos anormais significativos de estratégias baseadas em accruals demonstraram que uma baixa qualidade dos lucros correntes - devido a um alto nível de accruals - não resultou em retornos anormais negativos no período posterior. As proxies relativas a adoção das normas IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) e ao nível de investimentos - incluídas no modelo de regressão - compreendem parte das contribuições deste tralho, ainda que não se tenha identificado significância estatística para tais variáveis. Isso porque, por intermédio do teste-t, foi explicitada a ocorrência de uma relação entre o nível de acrruals e o crescimento do imobilizado. Tal resultado sugere indícios de que ambas as variáveis captariam o mesmo efeito, qual seja, a atividade investimento por parte das firmas (WEI; XIE, 2007; ZACH, 2007). Os resultados coadunam com as evidências detectadas por Cupertino (2010), ampliando os indícios sobre o comportamento do mercado frente a informações emanadas pela Contabilidade em mercados emergentes, além de explicitar a ausência da denominada anomalia dos accruals no mercado de capitais brasileiro. / This research was developed to evaluate investors\' ability to interpret Accounting data, more specifically, to examine its ability to effectively understand earnings information. As a complement, we have analyzed the existence of economic opportunities to obtain abnormal returns through investment strategies based on accruals. The sample was composed by nonfinancial companies with available information in Economatica database from 1995 to 2010. We\'ve excluded firms with negative equity, missing data, as well as outliers. In countries in which profits importance to market price is lower, pricing of shares would be less influenced by the bottom line functional attachment, which in turn, would decrease the Accruals Anomaly (El MEHDI, 2011). Since Accounting numbers in Brazilian stock market have demonstrated low impact (LOPES, 2005) we previously expect a lower presence of the Accrual Anomaly. To assess whether persistence of accruals was significantly lower than cash flow component, we\'ve estimated a panel data regression, in which it was possible to prove our first hypothesis, that accrual\'s exhibit a lower persistence with a 0.43 estimated parameter, while the cash flows have presented a 0.53 parameter, both significantly different from 0 at the 0.05 level. The lack of statistical significance between current accruals and future abnormal returns among studied companies and the absence of significant abnormal returns in strategies based on accruals have demonstrated that a low quality of current earnings - due to a high level of accruals - did not result in a negative abnormal return, thereafter. Adding proxies to IFRS adoption and investment level can be considered as an additional contribution. Although these variables have shown no statically significance, we\'ve found a relationship, explicit by T-test, between accruals level and inventory growth, providing evidences that both variables would capture the same effect, namely, investments activity by firms (WEIK; XIE, 2007; ZACH, 2007). The results are consistent with Cupertino (2010) research, have increased evidences about market behavior to Accounting information in emerging markets, and explicit the absence of the Accrual Anomaly in Brazilian stock market.
58

The impact of international financial reporting standards on earnings quality : EU evidence

Mohamad, Housam January 2016 (has links)
Earnings have numerous properties that can be investigated, including earnings smoothness, abnormal accruals after modelling the accruals process and asymmetric timely loss and gain recognition. In latest decades, as earnings are the main source of firm-specific information for investors, earnings quality has become a significant focus in the financial accounting field. Moreover, high-quality financial reporting helps investors improve decisions and better evaluate firm performance because capital markets depend on the credibility of financial accounting information. The aim of this study investigates the impact of the mandatory adoption of IFRS on earnings quality in term of earnings management and accounting conservatism in consideration of eleven European countries (Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Belgium, Norway and the United Kingdom) as a sample study. Then to test whether investors could predict a company's future performance efficiently based on deferred tax expense as one of the accruals components before and after the mandatory adoption of IFRS. Since the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) required by the European Union (EU) Parliament, numerous research studies have examined whether earnings management has been reduced due to the mandatory adoption. Chapter two of this study examines whether the board of directors is more effective in constraining earnings management after the mandatory application of IFRS. More specifically, the study explored ways that two board characteristics, board independence and the existence of an audit committee, have impacted earnings management since 2005. The empirical results with eleven European countries (Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Belgium, Norway and the United Kingdom) showed evidence of an inverse relationship between the strength of corporate governance and the extent of earnings management. This negative association suggests that firms that apply IFRS with a high level of corporate governance standards are less likely to be involved in earnings management. This study indicates that board independence and the existence of audit committees play important and effective roles in reducing earnings management after the introduction of IFRS. The results also provide evidence that the internationally uniformed accounting regulatory framework significantly contributes to the effectiveness of the two corporate governance mechanisms. Chapter three examines the impact of the mandatory IFRS adoption on the asymmetrically timely gain and loss recognition (accounting conservatism). The findings provide evidence of the importance of the mandatory adoption of IFRS in increasing of accounting conservatism in pooled samples and separate samples. Chapter four investigates whether investors could predict a company's future performance efficiently based on deferred tax expense as one of the accruals components before and after the mandatory adoption of IFRS. Moreover, whether or not the predictions could be generalised to other European countries was examined. The results imply that an accrual anomaly exists in pooled samples before and after mandatory IFRS adoption and the study prove that deferred tax expense as a determinant factor of accounting accruals is overweighed by stocks prices before and after IFRS adoptions.
59

Detecting Financial Statement Fraud: Three Essays on Fraud Predictors, Multi-Classifier Combination and Fraud Detection Using Data Mining

Perols, Johan L 10 April 2008 (has links)
The goal of this dissertation is to improve financial statement fraud detection using a cross-functional research approach. The efficacy of financial statement fraud detection depends on the classification algorithms and the fraud predictors used and how they are combined. Essay I introduces IMF, a novel combiner method classification algorithm. The results show that IMF performs well relative to existing combiner methods over a wide range of domains. This research contributes to combiner method research and, thereby, to the broader research stream of ensemble-based classification and to classification algorithm research in general. Essay II develops three novel fraud predictors: total discretionary accruals, meeting or beating analyst forecasts and unexpected employee productivity. The results show that the three variables are significant predictors of fraud. Hence Essay II provides insights into (1) conditions under which fraud is more likely to occur (total discretionary accruals is high), (2) incentives for fraud (firms desire to meet or beat analyst forecasts), and (3) how fraud is committed and can be detected (revenue fraud detection using unexpected employee productivity). This essay contributes to confirmatory fraud predictor research, which is a sub-stream of research that focuses on developing and testing financial statement fraud predictors. Essay III compares the utility of artifacts developed in the broader research streams to which the first two essays contribute, i.e., classification algorithm and fraud predictor research in detecting financial statement fraud. The results show that logistic regression and SVM perform well, and that out of 41 variables found to be good predictors in prior fraud research, only six variables are selected by three or more classifiers: auditor turnover, Big 4 auditor, accounts receivable and the three variables introduced in Essay II. Together, the results from Essay I and Essay III show that IMF performs better than existing combiner methods in a wide range of domains and better than stacking, an ensemble-based classification algorithm, in fraud detection. The results from Essay II and Essay III show that the three predictors created in Essay II are significant predictors of fraud and, when evaluated together with 38 other predictors, provide utility to classification algorithms.
60

Accruals: signalling or misleading? Evidence from New Zealand

Koerniadi, Hardjo Unknown Date (has links)
Studies on earnings management usually hypothesise that managers manage accruals opportunistically. Few studies however, argue that managers can also use accruals to improve the value relevance of reported earnings to help investors better assess the firm's operating performance. While substantial evidence on managers' opportunistic behaviour on accruals has been documented in the literature, empirical evidence on the informativeness of accruals is scarce and inconclusive. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether managers use accruals to communicate private information regarding the firm's operating performance, or as reported in the literature, use them for their own benefit. This thesis finds that on average, firms reporting high earnings accompanied by high accruals have significantly negative subsequent period stock returns suggesting that these firms manage their accounting earnings. Focusing on stock dividend issues as an incentive to opportunistically increase accruals, the results are found to be consistent with the earnings management hypothesis. Stock dividend issuing firms are reported to significantly increase accruals in the issue year followed by poor earnings and stock price performances in the subsequent year. Moreover, discretionary accruals of the issuing firms are negatively correlated with both future earnings and abnormal stock returns. This evidence attempts to complement the earnings management literature. The analysis on the incentive to decrease accruals related to share repurchases, however, does not provide sufficient evidence to suggest that managers use their discretion to decrease accruals. To investigate the hypothesis that managers use accruals to convey information regarding their firm's future profitability, this thesis employs the contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements as the research setting. This choice was made to increase the likelihood of detecting the use of accruals as private information communication while simultaneously mitigating the likelihood of the opportunistic income smoothing hypothesis to explain the results. The evidence strongly indicates that managers use both accruals and dividend increases as their private information communication regarding their firm's future profitability. Dividend increasing firms report positive accruals which are positively correlated with future profitability. This finding contributes to the literature by providing evidence on the accrual signalling hypothesis. Overall, the results of this thesis suggest that, depending on the incentives, managers can use the discretion accorded under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in estimating accounting accrual, either to manage accruals opportunistically or to help investors better assess the firms' operating performance.

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