The aim of this thesis was to investigate the use of effect sizes to report the results of statistical credit rating models in a more practical way. Rating systems in the form of statistical probability models like logistic regression models are used to forecast the behaviour of clients and guide business in rating clients as “high” or “low” risk borrowers. Therefore, model results were reported in terms of statistical significance as well as business language (practical significance), which business experts can understand and interpret. In this thesis, statistical results were expressed as effect sizes like Cohen‟s d that puts the results into standardised and measurable units, which can be reported practically. These effect sizes indicated strength of correlations between variables, contribution of variables to the odds of defaulting, the overall goodness-of-fit of the models and the models‟ discriminating ability between high and low risk customers. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Statistics)

本研究的目的為研究台灣省在1990年之15-17歲的在學率，在找出可能影響因素並蒐集好相關的資料後，我們將蒐集到的資料分成兩個部份，一個部份用來建造模型，而另一個部份則用來測試所建立出來的模型。主要的過程是：先利用簡單迴歸模型了解各個可能的因素對於15-17歲的在學率的影響程度，經過許多分析及了解後再對這些變數採取可能的變數轉換(variable transformations)，而後再利用三種常用的統計迴歸方法﹝包含有逐步迴歸(stepwise regression)方法、前進選擇(forward selection)方法以及後退消除(backward elimination)方法﹞去發展出一個適當的複迴歸模型(multiple regression model)。對於這個模型，以實際的台灣在學情況來看，我們看不出它有任何的不合理；同時也利用圖形及檢定去驗證模型的假設，其次還做有關迴歸參數的推論(inferences about regression parameters)。再其次，我們運用變異數分析的結果(analysis of variance results)以及新觀察值的預測情形(predictions of new observations)來評估模型的預測能力。最後並利用所得到的最適當的模型，對如何提昇15-17歲青少年的在學率給予適當的建議。 / The objective of this research is to study what factors may affect the schooling rates of 15-17 years old in Taiwan province in 1990. After finding out some possible factors and collecting those data regarding those factors, we separate the data (by stratified random sampling) into two sets. One set is used to construct the model, and the other set shall be used to test the model. The main process to build a regression model is as follows. First, we shall use simple linear regression models to help us to see if each factor may have relation with the schooling rates. With the analysis of residuals and so on, we then make appropriate transformations on each of these factors. Finally, we use three common statistical regression techniques (including stepwise regression, forward selection, and backward elimination methods) to develop a suitable multiple regression model. It seems that, by our understanding of schooling rates in Taiwan, this model is not unreasonable. In addition, we verify the assumptions of the model by graphical methods and statistical tests. We also do the inferences about regression parameters. Furthermore, ye use the results of the analysis of variance and predictions of new observations to evaluate the prediction ability of the model. Finally, we use the most appropriate multiple regression model to give some suggestions to improve (or keep) the schooling rates of 15-17 years old.

Esta tesis tiene dos objetivos principales. El primero es proponer métodos multivariantes para el estudio de las desigualdades socioeconómicas en la mortalidad en áreas pequeñas. El segundo es estudiar estas desigualdades en la práctica en varias ciudades españolas. En consecuencia, se han realizado cuatro estudios diferentes: dos de ellos más metodológicos y los otros dos más aplicados al estudio de las desigualdades. El primer estudio metodológico propone usar Análisis Factorial Bayesiano para el cálculo de índices de privación. Además, en este estudio se concluye que ignorar la variabilidad en la estimación del índice puede conducir a un sesgo cuando las áreas se agrupan según cuantiles del índice. En el segundo estudio se ha reformulado el modelo SANOVA de modo que es posible introducir una covariable dentro de este modelo. Asimismo, dicha reformulación permite la descomposición de la varianza de los patrones estudiados como suma de varianzas de todas las componentes del modelo. Finalmente, los estudios restantes evidencian la existencia de desigualdades socioeconómicas en la mortalidad total y en la mortalidad por las principales causas específicas en once ciudades españolas. Además, para las enfermedades isquémicas del corazón estas desigualdades parecen aumentar ligeramente en el tiempo. / This thesis has two main objectives. The first is to propose multivariate methods for the study of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas. The second is to study socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas of several Spanish cities. Four different studies were conducted to attain these objectives: two of them focussed on the methodological aspects and the other two being empirical studies focussed on the study of inequalities. The first methodological study proposes the Bayesian factor analysis to calculate a deprivation index. Additionally, this study concludes that ignoring the uncertainty obtained in the estimation of the index may result in a misclassification bias when the areas are grouped according to quantiles of the index. In the second methodological study the SANOVA model has been reformulated enabling the introduction of a covariate in the model. Also, this reformulation permits the decomposition of the variance of the studied patterns into the sum of variances of all the model components. Finally, the other studies show the existence of socioeconomic inequalities in total mortality and mortality by specific causes in eleven major Spanish cities. In addition, for ischemic heart disease these inequalities appear to increase slightly over time.

本研究以2000年至2004年台灣上市櫃的623家電子業為研究對象，探討員工分紅制度對企業經營績效的影響。本研究採用兩階段法，第一階段，採用DEA併用單變量統計之變異數分析法(ANOVA)及無母數分析法(Wilcoxon兩樣本檢定；K-W多樣本檢定)，來驗證電子業實行員工分紅對企業經營績效的影響。第二階段，DEA併用Tobit迴歸模型，比較第一階段單變量統計檢定的研究結果。研究結果發現： (1)電子產業內有發放員工分紅者的企業經營績效顯著較低，同時電子業發放前一年度員工分紅者對當年度的經營績效為負向顯著相關。 (2)電子產業內發放員工現金紅利對企業經營績效的影響顯著高於股票紅利者，同時電子業發放前一年度員工股票紅利者對當年度的企業經營績效為負向顯著相關。 (3)電子產業內員工分紅佔公司市值比例高者對企業經營績效的影響劣於員工分紅佔公司市值比例低者，且在增加其他控制變數後，電子業發放前一年度員工分紅佔公司市值比例高者對當年度的企業經營績效為負向顯著相關。 (4)電子產業內員工分紅佔薪資比例高者對企業經營績效的影響優於員工分紅佔薪資比例低者，且在增加其他控制變數後，電子業發放前一年度員工分紅佔薪資比例高者對當年度的企業經營績效為正向顯著相關。

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:28:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-07-21Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:18:41Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 alonso_aa_me_sjc.pdf: 816482 bytes, checksum: 5e7f9255e591189fa6c1f9a1470015f7 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Este trabalho avaliou a influência de três diferentes métodos de fundição (maçarico e centrífuga elétrica - G1, indução eletromagnética - G2 e plasma - G3), sobre a interface de uma liga metálica de Pd-Ag-Sn e uma cerâmica odontológica de cobertura. Foram encerados para cada método de fundição 30 padrões em cera. Os padrões em cera foram incluídos e fundidos de acordo com as especificações de cada fabricante de equipamentos de fundição. Após o processo de sinterização da cerâmica, os corpos de prova (CP) foram divididos em dois subgrupos. Um subgrupo foi submetido diretamente ao ensaio mecânico de cisalhamento, e o outro recebeu ciclagem térmica e mecânica, seguido do ensaio mecânico de cisalhamento. Então, para cada método de fundição (n=24), metade dos CP receberam ciclagem térmica e mecânica (n=12), e a outra metade os CP não foram ciclados. Após o cisalhamento, os CP foram examinados em estereomicroscópio, para verificação do padrão de fratura. Os valores coletados durante o ensaio de cisalhamento receberam análise estatística, (ANOVA e teste de Tukey), com nível de significância de 5%. Os resultados mostraram os seguintes valores (média l desvio padrão), para os subgrupos sem ciclagem: 108,35 l 22,97 MPa para o maçarico; 103,64 l 28,28 MPa para a indução; 93,79 l 11,07 MPa para o plasma; para o sub grupo com ciclagens: 97,96 l 18,30 MPa para o maçarico; 62,34 l 11,26 MPa para a indução; e 58,10 l 10,66 MPa para o plasma. Conclui-se que os grupos Plasma com ciclagem e Indução com ciclagem apresentam médias dos resultados semelhantes e menores que os demais. / The aim of this study was to evaluate the three differents methods of melting (gas oxygen torch and eletrical centrifuge G1, Induction electrical centrifuge G2 e automated casting machine with gas argon - G3), between the interface of the Pd-Ag-Sn alloy, and a dental ceramic. Thirty standardized specimens were waxed for each method of melting. The specimens were included and melted in agreement with each manufacturer's melting equipments specifications. Following a feldspatic ceramic was applied over the metal copping, according to the manufacturers' instructions The specimens were divided in two subgroups. One subgroup was directly submitted to the shear bond strength test; and the other subgroup was thermo-cycled, mechanic-cycled, followed by the shear bond strength test. The fractured specimens were evaluated under a stereoscopic loup (20 X magnification), and the type of fracture recorded. The data collected during the shear bond strength test were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey's test statistical analysis with 5% level of significantly. The results showed the following values (mean l S.D.), for the sub groups without cycling: 108,35 l 22,97 MPa by gas oxygen torch and eletrical centrifuge, 103,64 l 28,28 MPa by Induction electrical centrifuge, 93,79 l 11,07 MPa by automated casting machine with gas argon and for the sub group with cycling 97,96 l 18,30 MPa by gas oxygen torch and electrical centrifuge, 62,34 l 11,26 MPa by Induction electrical centrifuge, and 58,10 l 10,66 MPa by automated casting machine with gas argon. Considering this study we can conclude that the automated casting machine with gas argon with cycling and Induction electrical centrifuge with cycling presents similar averages and lower than the others groups.

Social Capital and Open Innovation are important for organisational growth, as both of them influence Innovation, Learning and Job Satisfaction. The literature indicates that informal network measured as social capital and formal network measured as open innovation influences positively to organizational innovation performance, learning and job satisfaction. Most of the studies in this area have been carried out using univariate approaches, and only few dimensions of both Social Capital and Open Innovation have been considered. Current literature outlines the positive influence of Social Capital and Open Innovation on Learning, Innovation and Job Satisfaction. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-dimensional framework for Social Capital and Open Innovation, in order to better understand the nuances of Learning, Innovation and Job Satisfaction in an R&D setting. Another important factor influencing the R&D outcomes is Absorptive Capacity; it is the capacity of the organisation to identify and use external knowledge. The direct and moderating role of Absorptive Capacity has been examined. Both theoretical and conceptual models have been proposed, and a measurement scale in form of a questionnaire has been developed. Data was collected from 35 organisations across India operating in the field of defence R&D. The sample included Government-run R&D organisations, Public Sector Units (PSUs) and private firms, and total of 331 engineers/scientists responded to the survey. Data was analysed using statistical methods such as Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), Common Method Variance (CMV), and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Reliability and validity of the proposed scales for the constructs have been verified using appropriate techniques, and further inferences have been drawn by using regression techniques and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to assess the proposed relationships. It has been found that both Social Capital and Open Innovation have positive influence on Learning, Innovation and Job Satisfaction. Further, it was found that Absorptive Capacity had a positive association with both Innovation and Learning. However, Absorptive Capacity did not moderate the relationship of Social Capital with both Innovation and Learning, but was found to moderate the relationship between Open Innovation and Innovation, for both outbound and inbound approaches of Open Innovation. Bonding Social Capital had a relatively stronger positive association with Learning, while Bridging Social Capital was found to have a stronger relationship with Innovation. In summary, networking factors Social Capital and Open Innovation have strong positive association with R&D outcomes measured as innovation performance, learning and job satisfaction.

La dégradation des contacts tribologiques sous une sollicitation de fretting est un phénomène complexe lié à l’interaction entre deux corps sous une faible amplitude de débattement, ce qui limite la durée de vie des pièces de manière significative. La lubrification solide est de plus en plus utilisée dans les applications tribologiques pour réduire les frottements et protéger la surface du substrat contre l'usure par fretting. La performance du revêtement dépend de nombreux facteurs tels que les conditions de sollicitation, les propriétés du substrat, du contre-corps et du revêtement et l'adhérence entre le revêtement et le substrat. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de discuter le frottement et le comportement en usure du revêtement sous différentes conditions et d'analyser l'effet des paramètres d’essai sur le coefficient de frottement et la durée de vie du revêtement, ce qui peut être effectivement utile pour l'évaluation de la qualité des revêtements. Les tests de fretting sont menés pour comprendre les relations entre le comportement tribologique d'un vernis à base de MoS2 et les conditions d’essai. Le revêtement est étudié pour différentes valeurs de force de contact, amplitude de déplacement, configuration de contact, position du revêtement, nature du substrat et épaisseur. L'effet de chaque facteur est évalué par l'analyse de variance. L'analyse de régression est utilisée pour prévoir la performance du revêtement. L'observation de l'évolution de la trace d’usure est réalisée pour expliquer l’importance des facteurs et les coefficients dans les équations de prédiction. En outre, l'analyse de fiabilité est utilisée pour décrire et prévoir le taux de survie du revêtement sous certaines conditions d’essai. Enfin, un modèle linéaire de durée de vie est évalué afin de prendre en compte l'amplitude de déplacement variable. / Fretting wear is considered as a complex wear phenomenon related to interaction between two sliding bodies under very low displacement amplitude, which limits the lifetime of elements significantly. Solid lubricant is more and more applied in tribological applications to reduce friction and protect the substrate surface from fretting wear. The performance of coating depends on many factors such as running conditions, properties of substrate, counterbody and coating, and adhesion between coating and substrate. The objectives of this thesis are to discuss the friction and wear behavior of the coating under different running conditions, and to analyze the effect of test parameters on the friction coefficient and lifetime of the coating, which can be effectively helpful for the evaluation of quality of the coating. Fretting experiments are carried out to understand the relationships between the tribological behavior of a MoS2 based varnish coating and running conditions. The coating is investigated under different contact forces, different displacement amplitudes, different contact configurations, different coating positions, different substrates and different thicknesses. The rank of effect of factors is evaluated by the analysis of variance. Regression analysis is used to predict the performance of coatings under certain running conditions. The observation of evolution of wear scar is applied to explain the rank of factor and coefficients in the prediction equations. Furthermore, the reliability analysis is used to describe and predict the survival rate of coatings under certain running conditions. Finally, a linear model for lifetime is assessed in order to take into account variable displacement amplitude.

In this thesis the two disciplines of Statistics and Artificial Neural Networks are combined into an integrated study of a data set of a weather modification Experiment. An extensive literature study on artificial neural network methodology has revealed the strongly interdisciplinary nature of the research and the applications in this field. An artificial neural networks are becoming increasingly popular with data analysts, statisticians are becoming more involved in the field. A recursive algoritlun is developed to optimize the number of hidden nodes in a feedforward artificial neural network to demonstrate how existing statistical techniques such as nonlinear regression and the likelihood-ratio test can be applied in innovative ways to develop and refine neural network methodology. This pruning algorithm is an original contribution to the field of artificial neural network methodology that simplifies the process of architecture selection, thereby reducing the number of training sessions that is needed to find a model that fits the data adequately. [n addition, a statistical model to classify weather modification data is developed using both a feedforward multilayer perceptron artificial neural network and a discriminant analysis. The two models are compared and the effectiveness of applying an artificial neural network model to a relatively small data set assessed. The formulation of the problem, the approach that has been followed to solve it and the novel modelling application all combine to make an original contribution to the interdisciplinary fields of Statistics and Artificial Neural Networks as well as to the discipline of meteorology. / Mathematical Sciences / D. Phil. (Statistics)

An exploratory study was undertaken to investigate the relationship between personality preference groupings, as described by Jung’s (1959) type theory, and emotional intelligence, as measured by Bar-On’s emotional intelligence quotient (Bar-On, 1997). The sample group consisted of 1 121 recruitment candidates for a South African investment bank. The sixteen personality types, as measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, were represented in the sample. The statistical analysis conducted for this study included comparison of means, correlation analysis and analysis of variance. The results indicated statistically significant relationships between the preferences of Extroversion, Judgement, their combined preference grouping and emotional intelligence. No statistically significant relationships were found between the preference groupings of Intuition and Thinking, Sensing and Thinking, Intuition and Feeling, and Sensing and Feeling. The preferred Feeling preference type consistently scored the lowest in terms of emotional intelligence scores. / Industrial and Organisational Psychology / M.A. (Industrial and Organisational Psychology

Os glicosímetros permitem que a medição da glicemia seja realizada pelo próprio usuário sem alterar a sua rotina de vida. Dois princípios são utilizados para mensurar o nível de glicemia no sangue: o fotométrico e o amperométrico. No princípio fotométrico, após reações bioquímicas com a amostra de sangue venoso capilar, a glicemia é avaliada pela mudança de comprimento de onda de um feixe de luz padrão. No princípio amperométrico, após reações bioquímicas com a amostra de sangue venoso capilar, é avaliada a intensidade de corrente elétrica que circula pela amostra, sendo proporcional a glicemia. Os glicosímetros disponíveis no mercado utilizam um dos dois princípios. O equipamento utilizado pelos laboratórios de análises bioquímicas utiliza o princípio fotométrico com amostras de sangue venoso coletadas do antebraço do paciente. Este trabalho foi aprovado pelo comitê de ética e avalia de forma pareada um conjunto de medidas de glicemia realizadas com vários glicosímetros disponíveis no mercado e um equipamento laboratorial. Os resultados apresentaram forte correlação entre as medições dos glicosímetros e o equipamento laboratorial, mas com erros sistemáticos e aleatórios elevados. Com os resultados obtidos confirma-se que o glicosímetro pode ser utilizado para monitoramento individual de glicemia, mas não pode ser utilizado para fins de diagnóstico / The glucometer allows the measurement of glycemia to be performed by the user without hindering his daily routine. Two principles are used to measure the level of blood glycemia: photometric and amperometric. On the photometric principle, after biochemical reactions with the sample obtained from capillary venous blood, the glycemia is measured by changing the wavelength of a light beam pattern. On the amperometric principle, after the biochemical reactions with the capillary venous blood sample, intensity of eletric current flowing through the sample can be measured and evaluated, where the intensity of the electric current is proportional to the blood glycemia level. The glucometers available on the market use one of the mentioned principles. Equipment used by biochemical analysis laboratories do make use of the photometric principle with venous blood samples collected from the patient's forearm. This work, approved by the ethics committee, evaluates a set of glycemia measures made by multiple glucometers and laboratory measuring equipment used by clinical laboratories. Presented results demonstrated a strong correlation between glycemia measures obtained from glucometer and equipment used on biochemical analysis laboratories, but with a high rate of systematic and random errors. With the results, the usage of glucometers can be assured for personal and individual measurement of glycemia, whereas this kind of device cannot be used for diagnosis.