This dissertation consists of three articles on social assistance benefit receipt dynamics in European countries. The first article presents an analysis of state dependence in benefit receipt in Germany based on annual survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. The observation period extends from 1995 to 2011, thus covering the 2005 'Hartz reforms'. I estimate a series of dynamic random-effects probit models to control for observed and unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of initial conditions. The high observed state dependence has a substantial structural component, with benefit receipt one year ago being associated with an increase in the likelihood of receipt today by 13 percentage points. There is only little evidence for time-variation in state dependence. The second article presents evidence on spell durations and the frequency of repeat spells using monthly administrative data from Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. In the two Nordic countries, short-term benefit receipt is the norm, with only around 6% and 11% of spells in Norway and Sweden lasting longer than 12 months. Most recipients however have multiple spells. In Luxembourg and the Netherlands, long-term benefit receipt is frequent, with median spell durations of 14 and 9 months, respectively, and one-third and one-quarter of all spells lasting 24 months or longer. The total duration of benefit receipt across spells is much higher in the Netherlands and Luxembourg than in Norway and Sweden. The third article tests the validity of one of the central assumptions of dynamic discrete-choice models of benefit dynamics, the conditional Markov property. Using monthly administrative data from Norway, the article shows that the Markov property is violated as estimated state dependence is affected by the chosen time unit of analysis. The standard model can be improved by permitting for different entry and persistence equations and duration and occurrence dependence in benefit receipt.

Die Regulierung eines Marktes ist das Ergebnis eines komplexen Prozesses, der sowohl von politischen als auch wirtschaftlichen Kräften beeinflusst wird. In drei sich ergänzenden Essays wird die Frage ökonometrisch untersucht, wie die Wirkungen und die Leistungsfähigkeit von Regulierungen neu zu bewerten sind, wenn die betroffenen Unternehmen ihrerseits die Regulierung beeinflussen können. Der erste Teil behandelt die Liberalisierung des Markteintritts im Mobilfunkmarkt in OECD Ländern in den neunziger Jahren. Insbesondere wird analysiert, wie politische und bürokratische Institutionen und die politische Umgebung im Deregulierungsprozess gewirkt haben. Hier werden relevante, "stilisierte Fakten" herausgearbeitet: Länder mit Mehrheitswahlsystemen, rechenschaftspflichtigen Regulierungsbehörden und rechtsorientierten Regierungen haben den Liberalisierungsprozess stärker vorangetrieben, während Länder mit einer Consensus-Demokratie, einem Präsidialregime, einer Koalitionsregierung und einem starken ex-monopolistischen Anbieter eher weniger oder langsamer dereguliert haben. Der zweite Teil der Arbeit konzentriert sich auf das strategische Verhalten der Unternehmen und auf die Frage, inwieweit dieses Verhalten von der politischen und bürokratischen Umgebung beeinflusst wird, in der die Unternehmen operieren. Diese Problematik wird anhand des US-amerikanischen Mobilfunkmarkts am Ende der achtziger Jahre empirisch untersucht, wobei die Beziehung zwischen der Entscheidung über das Regulierungssystem und die Preisentscheidungen der Unternehmen im Mittelpunkt der Betrachtung steht. Es wird gezeigt, dass es den Unternehmen durch Ihre Lobbyingaktivitäten gelang, die Wahl des Regulierungssystems zu beeinflussen. Überprüft man die so getroffene Selektion, dann zeigt es sich, dass die Regulierung zwar im allgemeinen in die gewünschte Richtung gearbeitet hat, aber nicht sehr signifikant wirkte. Das Lobbying mancher Unternehmen war hierbei so erfolgreich, dass gerade solche Märkte nicht reguliert wurden, in denen es am effektivsten gewesen wäre. Im dritten Essay zusammen mit Astrid Jung wird die Beziehung zwischen dem Marktverhalten von Unternehmen und ihren Spenden an politische Parteien untersucht. Die empirische Analyse findet eine signifikante, starke und negative Verbindung zwischen Lobbyingausgaben und der Fähigkeit der Unternehmen Marktabsprachen abzuschließen. Das Ergebnis ist ein Hinweis darauf, dass geheime Absprachen auf dem Produktmarkt eine stärkere Gleichschaltung der politischen Ziele unter den Unternehmen fördert und damit weniger Lobbying nötig ist, um die so koordinierte Ziele zu erreichen. / Regulation, like many other policy decisions, results out of a complex process that is shaped by political as well as economic forces. Therefore, regulatory decisions must be endogenized when studying their impact on the market outcome. This thesis offers various econometric approaches to study this issue. In the first contribution, I analyze how a country's political and bureaucratic institutions, as well as its political environment, affect the entry liberalization of the mobile telecommunications industry in OECD states during the 1990s. I found that majoritarian countries, countries with more accountable regulators, and countries with right-wing governments liberalized more intensely, whereas countries with consensus-type of democracies, a presidential regime, coalition rather than one-party governments, and a strong incumbent firm liberalized less. Next, I focus on the firms' strategic behavior and analyze how this is influenced by the political and regulatory environment. I use data from the U.S. mobile telecommunications industry in the late 1980's, which can be seen as a natural experiment because of its particular market and regulatory structure. The second essay studies the relation between the choice of a regulatory design and firms' pricing behavior. I show that, through their lobbying activities, firms endogenously influence the price-regulatory regime under which they operate. Accounting for this endogenous selection, price regulation is observed to decrease cellular tariffs. However, regulation is not particularly effective in reducing prices because firms prevent it from occurring where it would be mostly successful. In the final contribution together with Astrid Jung, we investigate the link between firms' political decision, i.e. their lobbying expenditures, and their product market conduct. The relationship between collusion and the industry's lobbying expenditures is strongly significant and negative: Higher lobbying expenditures foster a more competitive industry and collusive conduct reduces firms' contributions to the political system. The interpretation is that, if firms' political goals are not perfectly aligned, collusion in the product market reduces industry's total campaign contributions by enhancing firms' coordination in lobbying.

Diese Dissertation besteht aus zwei Teilen, die durch eine Einleitung zu Auktions- und Oligopolmärkten und durch eine kurze Diskussion über die erzielten Resultate am Ende der Arbeit miteinander verbunden sind. Der erste Teil diskutiert die Literatur zu Auktionen und analysiert das Verhalten von Bietern in Österreichischen Rinderauktionen. Das Ziel der Untersuchung ist es zu bestimmen, ob es Unterschiede im Verhalten der Bieter gibt und ob diese die Möglichkeit eines späteren Kaufes in Betracht ziehen. Der zweite Teil beschäftigt sich mit den Strategien von Firmen in der Halbleiterindustrie. Im besonderen werden die strategischen Effekte von "learning-by-doing" und "spillovers" betrachtet. Des weiteren werden die Konsequenzen der Aggregation von firmenspezifischen Preisverhalten zu einer industriespezifischen Presigleichung empirisch untersucht. In beiden Teilen wird schwerpunktmäßig auf der Frage eingegangen, ob das Vernachlässigen von Asymmetrien unter den Marktteilnehmern und/oder das Vernachlässigen dynamischer Effekte die geschätzen Parameter beeinflußt. / This thesis consists of two parts, which are connected by an introduction on auction and oligopoly markets and a short discussion about the obtained results at the end. The first part provides a literature review on auctions and analyzes bidders' behavior in Austrian cattle auctions. The aim is to investigate whether there are differences among bidders and whether bidders take the possibility of buying later into account when bidding for objects. The second part analyzes firms' strategies in the semiconductor industry. In particular, the strategic effects of learning-by-doing and spillovers are considered. Further, the consequences of aggregating firms' pricing behavior to an industry level pricing equation are empirically investigated. In both parts emphasis is put on the question, whether neglecting asymmetries across market participants and/or neglecting dynamic effects influences the estimated parameters.

Depuis le début des années 1980, on observe une augmentation importante du nombre de crises bancaires, combinée en parallèle à un essor important des systèmes financiers. La crise des subprimes de 2007-2008, par sa durée et son intensité récessive sans précédent depuis la Grande Dépression des années 1930, a relancé le débat sur le rôle joué par le développement financier dans l’accroissement de l’instabilité financière et l’amplification des chocs économiques. Or, bien qu’un grand nombre d’études soulignent que le fonctionnement du secteur bancaire constitue un facteur essentiel pour comprendre les dynamiques associées à la survenue ainsi qu’aux conséquences des crises bancaires, aucune analyse économétrique n’a jusqu’à présent évalué précisément l’effet qu’exerce le développement financier, considéré sous l’angle de la taille et de l’activité des intermédiaires financiers, sur l’origine et l’amplification des conséquences des crises bancaires. Il s’agit précisément de l’objectif de cette thèse. Pour cela, nous proposons dans le chapitre I de replacer notre étude dans une perspective de long terme au travers d’une histoire des crises financières du XVIIe siècle jusqu’à nos jours. Puis, sur la base d’un échantillon couvrant les principales crises bancaires qui se sont produites dans les pays développés et en développement durant les quarante dernières années, cette thèse analyse l’effet qu’exerce le développement financier sur les crises bancaires selon quatre dimensions. Nous nous intéressons au rôle que joue le développement financier sur la probabilité d’occurrence (chapitre II), l’amplification de la durée et du coût pour l’économie réelle (chapitre III), ainsi que l’impact redistributif (chapitre IV) des crises bancaires. Les résultats de ces trois chapitres vont dans le même sens et mettent en évidence que des systèmes financiers plus développés sont associés à des crises bancaires caractérisées par une probabilité d’occurrence, une durée, une contraction de la production et une hausse des inégalités de revenus significativement plus importantes. Notre travail apporte donc un éclairage précis et univoque quant au rôle joué par le développement financier tant au niveau des causes que des conséquences des crises bancaires. Dans un environnement international encore marqué par l’impact récessif de la crise des subprimes, la conclusion générale de la thèse soutient l’idée selon laquelle la promotion de la stabilité financière, ainsi que de la capacité de résilience des économies aux chocs passent par la mise en œuvre de la part des gouvernements de mesures visant à limiter de façon plus contraignante la taille et l’activité du secteur bancaire. / Since the beginning of the eighties, there is a significant increase in the number of banking crises at a worldwide level, in parallel with a surge in financial system development. The subprimes crisis, because of its recessive length and intensity without equivalent since the Great Depression of the thirties, has re-launched the debate on the role played by financial development in the amplification of both financial instability and economic shocks. Despite a large number of studies stressing that banking sector is a key factor to understand the outbreak and consequences of banking crises, no econometric analysis as so far assessed precisely the effect of financial development, viewed from the standpoint of both size and activity of financial intermediaries, on the occurrence and consequences of banking crises. It is precisely the goal of this thesis. In chapter I, we put our analysis into a long term perspective by proposing a history of financial crises from the 17th century until now. Then, based on a sample covering the main banking crises that happened in developing and developed countries over the last forty years, the thesis analyzes the effects of financial development on banking crises through four dimensions. We investigate the role played by financial development in the occurrence (chapter II), the duration and the cost for the real economy (chapter III) and also the redistributive impact (chapter IV) of banking crises. The results of these three chapters converge and highlight that more developed financial systems are associated with banking crises that are more numerous, last longer, are more costly for the real economy and lead to a larger surge in economic inequalities. Our work thus brings an insightful analysis of the effect of financial development on the causes and consequences of banking crises. In an international environment still facing the recessive impact of the subprimes crisis, the general conclusion of the thesis supports the view that in order to promote financial stability and a greater ability for economies to deal with negative shocks, governments should implement public policies aiming at strictly limiting the size and activity of the banking sector.

L'objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier la définition de paiements incitatifs pour la conservation de la biodiversité d’un point de vue empirique et théorique. Dans ce travail, nous visons également à intégrer de façon pertinente les processus écologiques spatiaux et dynamiques inhérents à la biodiversité terrestre dans les modèles économiques que nous développons.Dans le premier chapitre de cette thèse, nous évaluons empiriquement la coût-efficacité des paiements pour contrats Natura 2000 mis en place en forêt en France par le biais d'une approche ex ante. Le caractère insuffisant de la définition de ces paiements et leur mauvaise calibration montre la nécessité de repenser la définition de ces dispositifs d’incitations. Dans le deuxième et troisième chapitre de cette thèse, nous étudions donc la définition de paiements incitatifs efficients et coût-efficaces de façon théorique et conceptuelle, tout en prenant en compte les principaux enjeux posés par la définition de paiements incitatifs pour la conservation de la biodiversité terrestre. Le chapitre 2, par le biais d'un modèle principal-agent à valeur commune, étudie la possibilité de définir des paiements incitatifs différenciés à destinations des propriétaires privés lorsque les coûts et bénéfices de conservation sont hétérogènes et inobservables pour l’agence de conservation. Ce chapitre s’intéresse donc à l’impact de l’asymétrie d’information -- en particulier du phénomène d’anti-sélection -- sur la définition des paiements. Dans le chapitre 3, nous nous intéressons principalement à l’impact du changement climatique sur la définition de paiements incitatifs coût-efficaces. Dans ce chapitre, nous développons un modèle écologique-économique intégré, dynamique et spatialement explicite, nous permettant d’étudier la coût-efficacité relative de différents types de design, impliquant différents degrés de ciblage et de différentiation des paiements de conservation. Le travail réalisé dans l'ensemble de cette thèse nous permet de formuler des recommandations concernant le ciblage et le design de paiements incitatifs pour la conservation de la biodiversité. / The objective of this thesis is to study the definition of incentive payments for biodiversity conservation from an empirical and theoretical perspective. In this work, we also aim to account, in a relevant way, for spatial and dynamic ecological processes inherent to terrestrial biodiversity in the economic models that we develop. In the first chapter of this thesis, we empirically assess the cost effectiveness of incentive payments for biodiversity conservation implemented in French forests, namely Natura 2000 contracts, by undertaking an ex ante approach. Our results underline the inadequacy of the current definition of payments for Natura 2000 contracts and their poor calibration. This calls for a rethinking of the definition of conservation incentives. In the second and third chapter of this thesis we leave the framework of Natura 2000 contracts. We study the definition of efficient and cost-effective incentive payments in a theoretical and conceptual way, while taking into account the main challenges posed by the definition of incentive payments for biodiversity conservation. Chapter 2 explores, through a principal-agent common-value model, the possibility of differentiating conservation payments for private landowners when both conservation costs and benefits are heterogeneous and unobservable to the conservation planner. This chapter focuses on the impact of asymmetric information - especially of adverse selection - on the definition of payments. In Chapter 3, we investigate the impact of climate change on the definition of cost-effective incentive payments. In this chapter, we develop an integrated, dynamic and spatially explicit ecological-economic model, and study the relative cost-effectiveness of various payment design options, involving different levels of targeting and differentiation of conservation payments. The work done throughout this thesis allows us to formulate recommendations regarding the targeting and design of incentive payments for biodiversity conservation.

Cette thèse contribue à rendre le marché de la rénovation énergétique durable et autonome. L’objectif est de contribuer à quantifier le risque de non atteinte de la performance énergétique après rénovation. Tout d’abord, nous analysons les facteurs psychologiques des ménages à prendre en compte pour améliorer les modèles de prédictions de consommation d’énergie. Via le programme Je rénove BBC, nous mettons en évidence quatre biais cognitifs impactant l’écart de la consommation d’énergie réelle et prédite. Puis, nous étudions les structures de contrats les plus appropriés pour améliorer le déroulement des chantiers, incitant les artisans à mieux travailler. D’une part, nous déterminons des contrats pour un Agent devant effectuer deux tâches et sous-estimant l’impact de l’une d’entre elles sur la performance du bâtiment. D’autre part, nous testons des incitations individuelles et collectives sur la capacité de plusieurs artisans à se coordonner selon leur formation initiale (DORéMI, …). / This thesis aims at contributing to make the energy renovation market long-lasting and self-sustaining. To achieve this, our objective is to quantify the risk of not achieving energy performance after renovation. First, we analyze households’ psychological factors that should be considered to improve energy consumption prediction models. Drawing on the Je rénove BBC program, we highlight four cognitive biases that negatively impact the difference between actual and predicted energy consumption. We then study the most appropriate contract structures improving the flow and quality of renovation projects, encouraging craftsmen to work better. On one hand, we determine optimal contracts for an Agent who has to perform two tasks and underestimates the impact of one of them on the building's performance. On the other hand, we test individual-based and group-based incentives on the ability of several real Agents (craftsmen) to coordinate, according to their initial training (DORéMI, …).

Regression discontinuity designs are increasingly popular quasi-experimental research designs among applied econometricians desiring to make causal inferences on the local effect of a treatment, intervention, or policy. They are also widely used in social, behavioral, and natural sciences. Much of the existing literature relies on the assumption that the discontinuity point or cutoff is known a-priori, which may not always hold. This thesis seeks to extend the applicability of regression discontinuity designs by proposing a new approach towards detection of an unknown discontinuity point using structural-break detection and machine learning methods. The approach is evaluated on both simulated and real data. Estimation and inference based on estimating the cutoff following this approach are compared to the counterfactual scenario where the cutoff is known. Monte Carlo simulations show that the empirical false-detection and true-detection probabilities of the proposed procedure are generally satisfactory. Finally, the approach is further illustrated with an empirical application. / Graduate

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zu den Gebieten der Finanzmarktökonomik und der Makroökonomik liefern. Der erste Essay beschäftigt sich mit der Spezifikation der Investoren verfügbaren Informationsmenge in Tests bedingter Kapitalmarktmodelle. Im Speziellen schlägt es die Verwendung dynamischer Faktoren als Instrumente vor. Diese fassen per Konstruktion die Information in einer Vielzahl von Variablen zusammen und stellen daher intuitive Maße für die Investoren zur Verfügung stehenden Informationen dar. Es wird gezeigt, dass so die Schätzfehler bedingter Modelle im Vergleich zu traditionellen, auf einzelnen Indikatoren beruhenden Modellvarianten substantiell verringert werden. Ausgehend von Ergebnissen, dass die Zentralbank zur Festlegung des kurzfristigen Zinssatzes eine große Menge an Informationen berücksichtigt, wird im zweiten Essay im Rahmen eines affinen Zinsstrukturmodells eine ähnliche Idee verwandt. Speziell wird die Dynamik des kurzfristigen Zinses im Rahmen einer Faktor-Vektorautoregression modelliert. Aufbauend auf dieser dynamischen Charakterisierung der Geldpolitik wird dann die Zinsstruktur unter der Annahme fehlender Arbitragemöglichkeiten hergeleitet. Das resultierende Modell liefert bessere Vorhersagen US-amerikanischer Anleihenzinsen als eine Reihe von Vergleichsmodellen. Der dritte Essay analysiert die Vorhersagekraft der Zinsstrukturkomponenten "level", "slope", und "curvature" im Rahmen eines dynamischen Faktormodells für makroökonomische und Zinsdaten. Das Modell wird mit einem Metropolis-within-Gibbs Sampling Verfahren geschätzt, und Überraschungsänderungen der drei Komponenten werden mit Hilfe von Null- und Vorzeichenrestriktionen identifiziert. Die Analyse offenbart, dass der "curvature"-Faktor informativer in Bezug auf die zukünftige Entwicklung der Zinsstruktur und der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aktivität ist als bislang vermutet. Der vierte Essay legt eine monatliche Chronologie der Konjunkturzyklen im Euro-Raum vor. Zunächst wird mit Hilfe einer verallgemeinerten Interpolationsmethode eine monatliche Zeitreihe des europäischen BIP konstruiert. Anschließend wird auf diese Zeitreihe ein Datierungsverfahren angewandt, das kurze und flache Konjunkturphasen ausschließt. / This thesis consists of four essays of independent interest which make empirical and methodological contributions to the fields of financial economics and macroeconomics. The first essay deals with the proper specification of investors’ information set in tests of conditional asset pricing models. In particular, it advances the use of dynamic factors as conditioning variables. By construction, dynamic factors summarize the information in a large number of variables and are therefore intuitively appealing proxies for the information set available to investors. The essay demonstrates that this approach substantially reduces the pricing errors implied by conditional models with respect to traditional approaches that use individual indicators as instruments. Following previous evidence that the central bank uses a large set of conditioning information when setting short-term interest rates, the second essay employs a similar insight in a model of the term structure of interest rates. Precisely, the dynamics of the short-term interest rate are modelled using a Factor-Augmented Vector-Autoregression. Based on this dynamic characterization of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates is derived under the assumption of no-arbitrage. The resulting model is shown to provide superior out-of-sample forecasts of US government bond yields with respect to a number of benchmark models. The third essay analyzes the predictive information carried by the yield curve components level, slope, and curvature within a joint dynamic factor model of macroeconomic and interest rate data. The model is estimated using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling approach and unexpected changes of the yield curve components are identified employing a combination of zero and sign restrictions. The analysis reveals that the curvature factor is more informative about the future evolution of the yield curve and of economic activity than has previously been acknowledged. The fourth essay provides a monthly business cycle chronology for the Euro area. A monthly series of Euro area real GDP is constructed using an interpolation routine that nests previously suggested approaches as special cases. Then, a dating routine is applied to the interpolated series which excludes business cycle phases that are short and flat.

The existence of substantial socio-economic inequalities is one of the most fundamental features of the Brazilian society. Although educational inequality is not the only source of such socio-economic inequalities, it plays a major role, particularly regarding income inequality, both for current and for future generations. Acquiring a better understanding of the patterns of educational inequalities in Brazil is thus a relevant research topic, with implications for policy-making. The first part of the thesis contains a conceptual discussion in which we try to determine an appropriate definition of educational justice. We advocate the use of “essential educational achievements” as the relevant “currency of educational justice” and we defend a version of “equality of educational opportunity” in which the responsibility that is assigned to individuals increases as they grow up. While a remarkable quantitative improvement has taken place recently in Brazil, the situation concerning the quality of education is less clear. To explore qualitative aspects, in the second part, we turn to pupils' performance in standardized tests. Applying usual distributional assessment tools to such data, we map the intensity of educational inequalities in the country. Using recently-developed indices of inequality of opportunity, we assess the fairness of the Brazilian schooling system. Thus we identify both the areas where educational inequality is more intense, and those where educational unfairness is more severe. In the third part, we use econometric methods to investigate how the reallocation of educational resources could contribute to moving Brazilian educational system towards educational fairness. First, we evaluate the effect of teachers' wages on pupils' achievement, and our analysis suggests there is scope for Brazilian public schools to improve their human resources policies, with potential benefits accruing to low-performing pupils. Then, we analyze the reallocations of educational resources required to equalize educational opportunities, and we find that the redistribution of non-monetary inputs could considerably reduce the magnitude of the financial redistribution needed.

Essay 1: (with Henrik Jordahl and Panu Poutvaara) We present and test a theory of prospective and retrospective pocketbook voting. Focusing on two large reforms in Sweden, we establish a causal chain from policies to sizeable individual gains and losses and then to voting. The Social Democrats proposed budget cuts affecting parents with young children before the 1994 election, but made generous promises to the same group before the 1998 election. Since parents with older children were largely unaffected we use a difference-in-differences strategy for identification. We find clear evidence of prospective pocketbook voting. Voters respond to campaign promises but not to the later implementation of the reforms. / Essay 2: This essay presents a detailed analysis of voters' response to municipality and regional level unemployment and economic growth, in Swedish general elections from 1985 to 2002, using data on 284 municipalities and 9 regions. The preferred specification suggests that an increase in regional growth or a reduction in regional unemployment by one percentage point is associated with an increase in the support for the national government by about 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points. Changes in unemployment and growth at the municipality level seem to have muchsmaller effects on government support. / Essay 3: One prediction from cognitive dissonance theory is that the act of voting makes people more positive toward the party or candidate they have voted for. Following Mullainathan and Washington (2008), I test this prediction by using exogenous variation in turnout provided by the voting age restriction. I improve on previous studies by investigating political attitudes, measured just before elections, when they are highly predictive of voting. In contrast to earlier studies I find no effect of voting on political attitudes. This result holds for a variety of political attitudes and data from both Sweden and the United States. / Essay4: (with Niclas Berggren and Henrik Jordahl) We conduct an extensive robustness analysis of the relationship between trust and growth by investigating a later time period and a bigger sample than in previous studies. In addition to robustness tests that focus on model uncertainty, we systematize the investigation of outlier influence on the results by using the robust estimation technique Least Trimmed Squares. We find that when outliers (especially China) are removed, the trust-growth relationship is no longer robust. On average, the trust coefficient is half as large as in previous findings.