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Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / India has made a concerted effort to upgrade its ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities as it competes with China and Pakistan for regional power. The Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System, Su-30MKI fighter-bomber aircraft, and S-300PMU surface-to-air missile system are some examples of the new capabilities India is acquiring. I argue that if India continues its military modernization, Pakistan will become more insecure. The increase in the conventional military capabilities gap will likely upset the existing balance of power in South Asia, leading to a regional arms race, lowering the nuclear threshold, and increasing instability in the region. The strategic stability/tactical instability paradox that exists between two nuclear countries may lead them to engage in "small" wars. India's increasing military capabilities may encourage it to conduct a preventive strike against Pakistan. In such a climate, a regional arms race eventually may lead Pakistan to establish a "hair-trigger" nuclear posture. India's effort to achieve a significantly superior conventional military force over Pakistan paradoxically may reduce Indian security by causing greater instability, and possibly lead to nuclear war. Regional stability is enhanced to the extent that there is a rough conventional military balance between India and Pakistan. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

Abstract The thesis deals with the US foreign policy under Richard Nixon. More specifically, it examines the US rapprochement with Communist China (PRC) and the triangular diplomatic relations between the US, USSR, and PRC. The thesis draws from the realist theories, particularly the offensive and defensive branches of neorealism represented by John Mearsheimer and Kenneth Waltz. The thesis applies the theoretical concept of wedging strategies as power-balancing tools on the selected US foreign policy. The thesis conducts a qualitative case study using the process-tracing method. A causal mechanism derived from the concept of wedging strategies is theorized and further applied in the analysis. The analysis of the US foreign policy towards China examines the individual traces in the theorized mechanisms. The results of the study show that the US broke the Sino-Soviet alliance using a defensive wedging strategy by exploiting the Sino-Soviet split, resulting in PRC's dealignment with the USSR. The US reapproached the PRC and swayed the Chinese leadership with strategic guarantees tacitly aimed against the USSR. These guarantees were ultimately projected into the Shanghai Communique of 1972.

Text in Afrikaans / Summaries in English and Afrikaans / The statutory definition of the lock-out encompasses certain acts (inter alia termination of contracts of employment) which must be executed by the employer with a certain purpose. The Appellate Division has recently found that the employment relationship not necessarily terminates similarly to the common law contract of employment, but may subsist after termination of the contract of employment. The industrial court does not easily accept that it has been deprived of its unfair labour practice jurisdiction where terminations of employment take place in consequence of a lock-out. The motive of the employer seems to be decisive. In line with both the trend in first world countries and principles established by the courts in South Africa, the Constitution and especially recent labour legislation significantly curtail the bargaining power of the employer because it is progressively being believed that the employer has sufficient economic power to his disposal. / Die omskrywing van die uitsluiting in wetgewing omvat sekere handelinge {onder andere beeindiging van dienskontrakte) wat deur die werkgewer met 'n sekere doel verrig moet word. Die Appelhof het onlangs beslis dat die diensverhouding na beeindiging van die dienskontrak kan bly voortduur en nie noodwendig soos die gemeenregtelike dienskontrak ten einde loop nie. Die nywerheidshof aanvaar ook nie geredelik dat hy in geval van diensbeeindiging wat volg op 'n uitsluiting van sy onbillike arbeidspraktyk jurisdiksie ontneem is nie. Die motief van die werkgewer blyk hier deurslaggewend te wees. In lyn met sowel die ne1g1ng in eerstew~reldse lande, asook beginsels reeds deur die howe in Suid-Afrika gevestig, word die bedingingsmag van die werkgewer ingevolge die Grondwet en veral onlangse arbeidswetgewing betekenisvol ingekort omrede toenemend aanvaar word dat die werkgewer oor voldoende ekonomiese mag beskik. / Law / LL.M.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the claim that Great Power Wars are a necessary condition for successful hegemonic ascent in the modern world-system, primarily from the standpoint of World- Systems Analysis. This study advances the conception of hegemony primarily in economic and state terms, and it was investigated, by way of a historical case study, how the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) impacted the economic domains of agro-industrial production, commerce, and finance of the United Provinces of the Netherlands, and its main rival for systemic leadership, Hapsburg Spain. The variables utilised in the study were Great Power War, and the ‘material base’ of the state involved (both independent), the three abovementioned economic domains (intervening), and hegemony or defeat (dependent). The case study was primarily descriptive and explanatory, with the use of process-tracing in its compilation, and a method of within-case structured, focused comparison was utilised with the aim of tentatively producing standardised, generalised knowledge concerning the wider link between Great Power War and hegemony beyond the Dutch case. The findings of the study, although derived from only one historical case of hegemonic ascent in the modern world-system, strongly support the argument that Great Power War is necessary to secure the hegemony of the leading insular core state, which is physically removed from the fighting during the conflict, since the full mobilisation of its economy is effected, while the economies of most other core states are impaired, especially the main continental rival for hegemony. However, the ascending hegemon must also possess the requisite favourable ‘material base’. Further research on this topic is called for, given the potential destructiveness of a future Great Power War, and its role in establishing hegemony in the modern world-system. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die bewering dat Groot Moontheid Oorloë ‘n noodsaaklike vereiste is vir suksesvolle hegemoniese bestyging in die moderne wêreld-sisteem, hoofsaaklik vanaf die standpunt van Wêreld-Sisteem Analise. Hierdie studie bevorder die konsepsie van hegemonie hoofsaaklik in ekonomiese en staat terme, en dit het ondersoek, deur middel van ‘n historiese gevallestudie, hoe die Dertig Jaar Oorlog (1618-1648) ingewerk het op die ekonomiese arenas van agri-industriële produksie, handel, and finansies van die Verenigde Provinsies van Nederland, en hul mededinger vir sistemiese leierskap, Spanje. Die veranderlikes wat in die studie ingespan was, was Groot Moontheid Oorlog, en die ‘materiële basis’ van die state in kwessie (onafhanlik), die drie bogenoemde ekonomiese arenas (albei tussenkomend), en hegemonie of nederlaag (afhanklik). Die gevallestudie was hoofsaaklik beskrywend en verduidelikend, en proses-nasporing (oftewel ‘process-tracing’) is in die samestelling daarvan benut, en ‘n metode van gestruktureerde, gefokusde vergelyking (oftewel ‘structured, focused comparison’) is gebruik binne die gevallestudie met die doel om tentatiewe gestandardiseerde en veralgemeende kennis te genereer wat bydra tot die verduideliking van die wyer skakel tussen Groot Moontheid Oorlog en hegemonie buite die geval van die Verenigde Provinsies. Die bevindinge van die studie, hoewel gegenereer aan die hand van slegs een historiese geval van hegemoniese bestyging in the moderne wêreld-sisteem, het sterk steun verleen aan die argument dat Groot Moontheid Oorloë nodig is om die hegemonie van die vernaamste insulêre kern staat te bewerkstellig, wat fisies verwyderd van die gevegte is tydends die oorlog, aangesien die volle mobilisasie van die ekonomie van hierdie staat bewerkstellig word, terwyl die ekonomieë van die meerderheid van die ander kernstate benadeel word, veral die vernaamste kontinentale mededinger om hegemonie. Die opkomende hegemoon moet egter ook oor die vereiste gunstige ‘materiële basis’ beskik. Verdere navorsing in hierdie veld word benodig, gegewe die waarskynlike vernietiging wat gesaai kan word deur ‘n toekomstige Groot Moontheid Oorlog, en die rol daarvan in die daarstelling van hegemonie in die moderne wêreld-sisteem.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / Bibliography / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This case study on East Africa analyses the impact of changing power relations over the last decade on Egypt’s hydro-hegemony on the Nile River Basin. Covering one-tenth of Africa’s landmass and providing resources for the 340 million people and countless species, the Nile is exemplary of Africa’s geographic, cultural and ecological diversity, as well as its political complexity. Eleven riparian states lie in its basin area and compete for dwindling water resources as demand rises in a highly asymmetrical power relationship between upstream and downstream states. Egypt, although geographically disadvantaged due to its downstream position, has established hydro-hegemony by combining material capabilities, legal and institutional mechanisms, as well as knowledge production. Its relative wealth is contingent upon the supply of Nile water, as it makes up 95% of Egypt’s freshwater. Egypt has legally secured its claim through the 1959 Treaty on the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters which divides the Nile water flow between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt further established consolidated control by using its downstream position in the World Bank to de facto veto upstream hydro-electric power projects throughout the 1990s. In contrast, the East African Community Partner States only started to lay claim to the water over the last decade due to its history of colonialism, proxy wars and political instability. In 2002, the EAC decided to manage the Lake Victoria Basin jointly. Paired with growing stability and economic growth in the region, this management has attracted Chinese investment in hydro-electric power projects, notably dams, giving East Africa financial independence from both the World Bank and Egypt to build hydro-infrastructure projects. East African states use the influx of Chinese investments to increase their respective defence budgets while Egypt’s military spending, as a share of GDP, has been decreasing over the last decade. Under the Nyerere Doctrine, East African states refuse to honour the 1959 Treaty and have asked for re-negotiation. The first step was taken in 2011, when six upstream states under EAC leadership signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement paving the way for renegotiation, in the face of Egypt’s explicit refusal. Domestic factors in Egypt, coupled with East Africa’s growing self-confidence, are slowly changing the power relations in the Nile basin. Using the London Water Research Group’s Hydro-Hegemony framework in a triangular diachronic single-case study research design, this study traces the processes of counter-hegemony and hydropolitical power shifts. Understanding these political processes is the first step towards the sustainable distribution of the Nile water resources on the basin level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie gevallestudie oor Oos-Afrika ontleed die impak van veranderende magsverhoudinge op Egipte se beheer oor die loop van die Nylwater gedurende die laaste dekade. Die Nyl, wat vloei oor een tiende van die landmassa van Afrika en lewensmiddele verskaf aan die 340 miljoen mense en ontelbare spesies wat daar ´n bestaan voer, dien as voorbeeld vir Afrika se geografiese, kulturele en ekologiese diversiteit sowel as die politieke kompleksiteit daarvan. Elf oewerstate lê in die Nylopvanggebied en wedywer vir waterbronne wat afneem, terwyl die aanvraag styg in ‘n hoogs asimmetriese magsverhouding tussen die lande wat stroomop en stroomaf geleë is. Alhoewel Egipte geografies benadeel is deur stroomaf geleë te wees, het die land hidrohegemonie verkry deur middel van sy materiële vermoëns, wets- en institutêre meganismes, en kennisproduksie. Die relatiewe rykdom van Egipte is afhanklik van die beskikbaarheid van Nylwater, wat 95% van die land se varswater verskaf. Egipte het sy aanspraak daarop wetlik vasgelê deur middel van die 1959 Verdrag oor die Volle Gebruik van die Nylwater, wat die Nyl se vloei verdeel tussen Egipte en die Soedan. Gedurende die 1990s het die land sy beheer verder versterk deur sy stroomafposisie by die Wêreldbank te gebruik om hidroelktriesekragprojekte stroomop de facto te veto. As gevolg van ‘n geskiedenis van kolonialisme en politieke onrus, het die lidstate van die Oos-Afrikaanse Gemeenskap (OAG) egter eers gedurende die laaste dekade begin om die Nylwater te eis. In 2002 het die OAG besluit om die Victoriameer-opvanggebied gesamentlik te beheer. Hierdie beheer, saam met toenemende bestendigheid en ekonomiese groei in die gebied, het aanleiding gegee tot Chinese beleggings in hidroelektriesekragprojekte, veral damme, sodat Oos-Afrika finansiële onafhanklikheid verkry het van beide die Wêreldbank en Egipte om sy eie hidro-infrastuktuurprojekte te bou. Terwyl die Oos-Afrikaanse lande die invloei van Chinese beleggings gebruik om hulle onderskeie verdedigingsbegrotings te vergroot, het Egipte se militêre uitgawes afgeneem as ‘n deel van die BBP oor die laaste dekade. Die Oos-Afrikaanse lande beroep hulle op die Nyerere Dokrine deur te weier om die 1959 Verdrag na te kom, en het versoek dat dit heronderhandel word. Die eerste treë is in 2011, geneem toe ses stroomoplande onder die leierskap van die OAG die Koöperatiewe Raamwerk Verdrag onderteken het, wat die pad voorberei vir heronderhandeling ten spyte van Egipte se onomwonde weiering daartoe.

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / The dynamics in U.S.-Turkey relations in both 1964 and 2003 continued to be between a large global power and a medium regional power in the framework of a global threat that required regional cooperation. In both cases the priority of the global power was the fight against the global threat and this created expectations from the medium power ally in the region, who -in both cases- had its own reservations about the issue, considering its own national interests. The analysis of the 1964 Crisis shows that both U.S. and Turkey would have five main sources of influence over their foreign policy decisions leading to disagreement in 1964: the dynamics in the U.S. Turkish relations as one between a global power and a regional partner; domestic concerns of both countries; unaligned goals of the two parties; the international circumstances; and the influence of signaling failures and previous interactions. When we analyze the 2003 Crisis in light of these findings we see that all the main issues seem to be consistently relevant, though their effects might have changed slightly. Overall, both cases reveal that the above-mentioned five factors determine the outcome of interactions between large global powers and medium powers in the region. / 1st Lieutenant, Turkish Army

Cosa determina la stabilità di un sistema politico internazionale? L’anarchia sistemica determina sempre una minaccia alla sopravvivenza? Il modello strutturale qui proposto integra le variabili della concentrazione del potere e della localizzazione geografica delle Grandi Potenze, per dimostrare come specifiche configurazioni strutturali contribuiscano a plasmare le motivazioni che stanno alla base dei comportamenti statali, condizionando i risultati sistemici osservabili. Viene, inoltre, inquadrato il processo di socializzazione come variabile interveniente, attivata da specifiche condizioni strutturali, in grado di inibire la ricorrenza della tendenza sistemica al bilanciamento attraverso la riduzione delle opzioni di politica estera a disposizione degli Stati. Dal punto di vista teorico, concentrandosi sul ruolo svolto dal potere e dalla geografia nell’orientare le motivazioni di base degli attori, il modello modifica l’assunto realista di incentivi strutturali costanti all’azione degli Stati, ipotizzando che questi varino al variare dei livelli di concentrazione del potere. Inoltre, mitiga il carattere meccanicistico del realismo strutturale, considerando il bilanciamento come una tra tante opzioni disponibili. Dal punto di vista empirico, il modello viene applicato a tre casi di studio, nel tentativo di evidenziare come la stabilità o l’instabilità sistemica siano determinate dall’esistenza di strutture di potere diffuse o concentrate. / What does effectively determine systemic stability? Does international anarchy always determine a threat to survival? The structural model introduced in this work focuses on two main variables, power concentration and geography, to demonstrate how structural constraints shape States’ base motivations to action, and how the resulting behaviors condition the observable systemic outcomes. Furthermore, I introduce the socialization process as an intervening variable, enabled by specific structural conditions. Socialization could inhibit the systemic balancing tendency by narrowing States’ foreign policy options. From the theoretical point of view, the model modifies the realist assumption towards constant structural incentives to action. By focusing on the role played by power concentration and geography in shaping States’ motivations, it is possible to link together the shifts in international power distribution with shifts in structural incentives. Nonetheless, the model loses the rather mechanistic character of structural realism, making balancing one among many viable options. From the empirical point of view, I apply the model against three case studies, trying to demonstrate how the existence of concentrated or diffused power structures determines systemic stability or instability.

This dissertation seeks to conceptualise and operationalise the concept of soft balancing in international relations by articulating a “theory of tripartite strategic balancing” which is applicable to both international and regional unipolar systems. It has a twofold purpose: one theoretical and the other empirical. First, it seeks to develop a theory of tripartite strategic balancing which encompasses three forms of strategic balancing: internal, external, and soft balancing. The second part seeks to test the theory’s utility in explaining international political outcomes in the post-Cold War international system. In particular, it seeks to ascertain whether and how “second-tier great powers” have strategically balanced against the United States on a global level since the end of the Cold War. The analyses will focus largely on the foreign policies of Russia and France – the chief soft balancers. However, this dissertation also seeks to extend the concept of soft balancing into the regional level of analysis by examining whether and how minor-regional powers soft balance against regional unipolar leaders. For instance, it will examine whether and how the Russian Federation has been soft balanced against by states in the “European Near Abroad.” The analyses will focus primarily on the foreign policies of Poland – the chief soft balancer in the region. The dissertation will employ three in-depth case studies – the Kosovo Crisis (1999), the Iraqi wars (1991-2003), and the Georgia Crisis (2008) – to verify whether or not tripartite strategic balancing is actually occurring as the theory predicts. It will heavily rely on sources and interviews conducted during my time working at the United Nations Security Council and the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These findings seek to contribute a more nuanced strand of thinking to the realist paradigm in international relations, and they offer practical implications for both US and Russian foreign policymaking.