Global ETD Search

51	Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) Analysis and Predicted Physical Properties of Shocked Quartz from the Chicxulub Impact Crater, Mexico Prastyani, Erina January 2022 (has links) As one of the most common minerals in crustal rocks, quartz has been widely used as an indicator for shock metamorphism. Shocked quartz is found in the Chicxulub impact crater, an impact crater that has been linked to the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction ~66 million years ago. The microstructural deformation features found in the shocked quartz do not form randomly, and their orientation provides a better understanding of the impact cratering process. At present, there are no studies of EBSD data analysis of shocked quartz from Chicxulub. We investigated six thin sections from two samples from the M0077A borehole in the lower peak ring of the Chicxulub impact crater, using the Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM)-EBSD technique. Both samples consist of shocked granite, with a significant amount of quartz. Therefore, this study investigates the crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) of shocked quartz and predicts the seismic velocities and anisotropy, based on the EBSD data. We carried out the analysis of EBSD data by using the MATLAB-based MTEX toolbox that can perform CPO analysis from pole figure plots and the prediction of seismic properties of minerals based on the Voigt-Reuss-Hill effective medium method. Although acquiring the EBSD data from these samples is challenging, leading to the lack of data measured, we found out that the prediction of P wave seismic velocity is in good agreement with other recent studies conducted in the same area. The range of predicted P wave velocities is 5.5-6.5 km/s with anisotropy of 8-15%. The actual observed laboratory measurements and in-situ seismic measurements are considerably smaller than this velocity range because our calculations do not incorporate pores or take microcracks into account. A likely explanation for the large variability of anisotropy in shocked quartz is the relatively few mapped grains with EBSD, which would influence the CPO and lead to high predicted seismic anisotropy. Considering a greaternumber of grains in the CPO analysis, the CPO is reduced, and seismic anisotropy becomes smaller. EBSD SEM shocked quartz quartz CPO seismic velocity anisotropy Chicxulub impact crater pole figures MTEX toolbox microstructural features planar deformation feature planar fracture feather features Geophysics Geofysik
52	Contralateral Limb Assessment: Novel Perspectives from Danish CPOs in Diabetic Care : An exploratory qualitative study Gregersen, Una, Heick, Emilie January 2024 (has links) Background: The number of people with diabetes is rising globally, and they are at higher risk of foot complications that can ultimately result in lower limb amputation. Additionally, individuals with diabetes whoundergo amputation are more likely to lose the contralateral limb. Consistent care and preventive measuresare crucial for reducing the risk of further amputations. Aim: This study aims to explore the current experience of certified prosthetist and orthotist in Denmarkconcerning the assessment of the contralateral limb in individuals with diabetes who utilize a lower limbprosthesis. Method: A qualitative study with an exploratory research design was conducted. Thematic analysis, using aninductive approach was employed to analyze data from eight semi-structured interviews with CPOs from Denmark. Findings: The analysis of the interview results revealed three main themes - responsibility, prioritization,and barriers - which frequently overlap. Each theme had multiple sub-themes which highlights the variationin the participants’ experiences. Conclusion: The variation in responses gathered from the interviews unveiled diverse perspectives on responsibility, prioritization, and barriers which points to a lack of clear guidelines in the Danish healthcaresystem regarding this assessment of the contralateral limb in this patient group. This study offers novel insightsinto the diverse experiences and decision-making processes of Danish CPOs when it comes to the contralaterallimb assessment in diabetic foot care. / <p></p><p></p> contralateral limb lower limb amputation diabetes assessment CPO Denmark Orthopaedics Ortopedi Medical and Health Sciences Medicin och hälsovetenskap Other Health Sciences Annan hälsovetenskap
53	Lumière lente et rapide dans les amplificateurs optiques à semi-conducteurs pour des applications en optique micro-onde et aux RADAR / Slow and fast light in semiconductor optical amplifiers. Applications in microwave photonics and RADAR Berger, Perrine 20 February 2012 (has links) Les techniques permettant de maitriser la vitesse de la lumière, au-delà de l'intérêt scientifique qu'elles suscitent, peuvent être appliquées au domaine radar. Elles permettent, ainsi, de remplacer avantageusement les retards optiques, jusqu'alors réalisés par des modifications géométriques du chemin optique. L’objectif de la thèse est d’étudier la lumière lente et rapide créée par oscillations cohérentes de population dans les amplificateurs à semi-conducteurs.Nous avons évalué théoriquement et expérimentalement les performances d’une ligne à retards accordables, en termes d’amplitude des retards et déphasages accordables, et de bandes passantes. Nous avons aussi étudié l’impact des oscillations cohérentes de population sur les facteurs de mérite de la liaison opto-électronique. La compréhension des mécanismes physiques mis en jeu nous a amenés à proposer des solutions pour contourner les limites identifiées du composant. Nous avons montré qu’il était possible d’utiliser les lignes à retards accordables au delà de l’inverse du temps de vie des porteurs (500 MHz) en utilisant la montée en fréquence des oscillations cohérentes de population par modulation croisée de gain. Nous avons ainsi obtenu des retards accordables de 389 ps à 16 GHz, sur une bande passante instantanée de 360 MHz. Enfin nous avons proposé une architecture permettant d’obtenir des déphasages accordables proches de 180 degrés à haute fréquence, en substituant l’effet du couplage gain-indice, révélé par l’utilisation d’un filtre optique, par l’excitation paramétrique des oscillations cohérentes de population. Nous avons utilisé ce principe, qui permet par exemple d’atteindre un déphasage accordable de 162 degrés à 2,2 GHz, pour concevoir un oscillateur optoélectronique fonctionnant à 2,2 GHz. La fréquence de ce dernier est rapidement accordable sur 6 MHz à l’aide du courant d’injection de l’amplificateur à semi-conducteur. / Slow and fast light is becoming a wide research field driven by an extensive effort to implement this new technology in real applications. Coherent population oscillations in semiconductor optical amplifiers constitute one of the most promising approaches, in particular for the processing of optically carried microwave signals, which includes the control of tunable true time delays and RF phase shifts.We studied theoretically and experimentally the available tunable delays and phase shifts and the associated bandwidths for a microwave photonics link including a semiconductor optical amplifier. We analyzed the influence of the coherent population oscillations on the dynamic range of the link.The understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms led us to propose new architectures in order to overcome the identified limitations of the components. We show how up-converted coherent population oscillations enable to get rid of the intrinsic limitation of the carrier lifetime (500 MHz), leading to the generation of true time delays at any high frequencies in a single semiconductor device. We demonstrated tunable delays up to 389 ps at 16 GHz, with an instantaneous bandwidth of 360 MHz.Lastly we demonstrate how to conceive a RF phase shifter up to 180 degrees at high frequency by forced coherent population oscillations. This effect replaces the enhancement of the coherent population oscillations by gain-index coupling effect, revealed by an optical filter. We used this principle, which enables to achieve a tunable phase shift up to 162 degrees at 2,2 GHz, in order to conceive an optoelectronic oscillator at 2,2 GHz. The frequency of this oscillator is fast tunable over 6 MHz by changing the current of the semiconductor amplifier. Lumière lente et rapide Optique micro-onde RADAR Hyperfréquence Ligne à retards accordables Déphaseur RF accordable Oscillations cohérentes de population SOA CPO Slow and fast light Semiconductor optical amplifier Microwave photonics Radar Hyperfrequency Tunable delay lines RF phase shifter Coherent population oscillation SOA CPO
54	Tragik in Werken Dürrenmatts Horne, Brigitte Katharina 11 1900 Text in German / Friedrich Durrenmatt hat die meisten seiner Dramen als Komodien oder Tragikomodien bezeichnet, da er davon uberzeugt war, daB es unmoglich sei, in der heutigen Zeit noch Tragodien zu schreiben. Diese Arbeit versucht am Beispiel einiger dramatischer Werke Durrenmatts zu zeigen, daB der Autor der "Physiker", der "Panne" und anderer Stucke, vor allem des "Besuchs der alten Dame", in weit hoherem MaBe der griechischen Tragodie verpflichtet war, als er erkannte oder zugeben wollte / Friedrich Durrenmatt has described most of his dramas either as comedies or as bitter comedies for he firmly believed that it was not suitable to write tragedies in our modern times. This paper was written to prove with the help of a few examples that the author of "The Physicists", "The Puncture" and others especially "The Visit" - was more bound to the classical Greek form of tragedy than he recognized or admitted / Linguistics and Modern Languages / M.A. (German) Classical form of tragedy Fear (cpo{3o~) Sympathy(EAEo~) Suffering Tragic flaw Acceptance of personal responsibility Tragic hero Personal innocence Individual Tragic nature Morality 832.914 Tragic, The, in literature
55	Tragik in Werken Dürrenmatts Horne, Brigitte Katharina 11 1900 (has links) Text in German / Friedrich Durrenmatt hat die meisten seiner Dramen als Komodien oder Tragikomodien bezeichnet, da er davon uberzeugt war, daB es unmoglich sei, in der heutigen Zeit noch Tragodien zu schreiben. Diese Arbeit versucht am Beispiel einiger dramatischer Werke Durrenmatts zu zeigen, daB der Autor der "Physiker", der "Panne" und anderer Stucke, vor allem des "Besuchs der alten Dame", in weit hoherem MaBe der griechischen Tragodie verpflichtet war, als er erkannte oder zugeben wollte / Friedrich Durrenmatt has described most of his dramas either as comedies or as bitter comedies for he firmly believed that it was not suitable to write tragedies in our modern times. This paper was written to prove with the help of a few examples that the author of "The Physicists", "The Puncture" and others especially "The Visit" - was more bound to the classical Greek form of tragedy than he recognized or admitted / Linguistics and Modern Languages / M.A. (German) Classical form of tragedy Fear (cpo{3o~) Sympathy(EAEo~) Suffering Tragic flaw Acceptance of personal responsibility Tragic hero Personal innocence Individual Tragic nature Morality 832.914 Tragic, The, in literature
56	Comparação do estado de saúde bucal da população de Baixo Guandu-ES, 50 anos após a fluoretação das águas e de Itarana-ES Casotti, Cezar Augusto [UNESP] 28 July 2006 (has links) (PDF) Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:33:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-07-28Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:43:56Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 casotti_ca_dr_araca.pdf: 660013 bytes, checksum: c630d7bb4fdb85d40a30ec52f8e05ca2 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A fluoretação da água de abastecimento público é reconhecida como uma das principais estratégias de saúde pública para prevenir a cárie dentária. A cidade de Baixo Guandu, localizada no Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil, foi a primeira a implantar o método. Foi objetivo do presente estudo avaliar o impacto que a fluoretação artificial da água proporcionou à saúde bucal de indivíduos com idade de 5, 12, 15 a 19, 20 a 34, 35 a 44 e 45 a 56 anos, que sempre viveram e consumiram exclusivamente água da rede de abastecimento público dos municípios de Baixo Guandu onde a fluoretação ocorre há 52 anos e Itarana, onde o método foi implantado há 3 anos. A metodologia, os códigos e os critérios adotados foram os recomendados pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), com a inserção dos grupos etários de 20 a 34 e 45 a 56 anos. Inicialmente foram identificados os moradores permanentes das duas cidades, as quais foram examinados no domicílio, com auxílio de espelho bucal e sonda periodontal CPI. Previamente à realização do estudo, o examinador passou por uma oficina de calibração e treinamento para a padronização dos diagnósticos da cárie dentária, fluorose dentária, perda dentária e uso e necessidade de prótese, em indivíduos com grupos etários semelhantes aos do estudo. Para o cálculo da concordância kappa intra-examinador, 10% dos indivíduos foram reexaminados, sendo os resultados obtidos para a cárie dentária 0,95; fluorose dentária 0,91; perda dentária 1 e o uso e necessidade de prótese 1. No total foram examinados 1588 moradores sendo 1129 (71,1%) de Baixo Guandu e 459 (28,9%) de Itarana. Foram utilizados os testes estatísticos Qui-quadrado, Fisher, Mann Whitney e de proporções com nível de significância de 5%. As médias do ceod aos 5 anos e CPOD aos 12, 15 a 19, 20 a 34, 35 a 44 e 45 a 56 anos foram, respectivamente, em Baixo Guandu... / The water fluoridation in the public supply is recognized as one of the main public health strategies to prevent dental caries. Baixo Guandu-ES was the first city to introduce this method in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impact that the artificial fluoridation of the water brought to the oral health of subjects in the age of 5, 12, 15 to 19, 20 to 34,35 to 44 and 45 to 56 years, that have always lived and consumed exclusively the water from the public supply of the city of Baixo Guandu for 52 years and Itarana where the method was introduced 3 years ago. The methodology, the codes and criteria adopted were recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), with the insertion of age groups of 20 to 34 and 45 to 56 years. Initially the identification of the permanent inhabitants of both cities, was realized and they were locally examined with the aid of plan oral mirrors number 5 and CPI periodontal probes. Previously to this study, the examiner went through a calibrator's workshop and training for the diagnosis of dental caries, dental fluorosis, tooth loss, the use and need of prosthesis with age groups similar to the ones in the study. In order to have the Kappa's intra-examiner calculated, 10% of the individuals were re-examined and the obtained result for dental caries was 0.95; for dental fluorosis 0.91; for dental loss, and for the use and need for prosthesis 1. A total of 1588 inhabitants were examined, of those 1129 (71.1%) of Baixo Guandu and 459 (29.9%) of Itarana. The Chi-square, Fisher's, Mann-Whitney's and the Proportions tests with level of significance of 5% were used to verify the significant statistic of the results. The mean dmft for 5 year old subjects and DMFT for 12, 15 to 19, 20 to 34, 35 to 44 and 45 to 56 subjects were respectively in Baixo Guandu 2.32; 1,55; 3.48; 7.69; 13,85 and 16.49 and ...(Complete abstract, click electronic address below) Saúde bucal - Baixo Guandu (ES) Cáries dentárias Fluor Prótese dentária Fluorose dentaria Fluoretação Índice CPO Perda de dente Fluoridation Fluorine Dental caries DMF index Tooth loss Dental prosthesis Dental fluorosis Oral health
57	競爭風險下長期存活資料之貝氏分析 / Bayesian analysis for long-term survival data 蔡佳蓉 Unknown Date (has links) 當造成失敗的原因不只一種時，若各對象同一時間最多只經歷一種失敗原因，則這些失敗原因稱為競爭風險。然而，有些個體不會失敗或者經過治療之後已痊癒，我們稱這部分的群體為治癒群。本文考慮同時處理競爭風險及治癒率的混合模式，即競爭風險的治癒率模式，亦將解釋變數結合到治癒率、競爭風險的條件失敗機率，或未治癒下競爭風險的條件存活函數中，並以建立在完整資料上之擴充的概似函數為貝氏分析的架構。對於右設限對象則以插補方式決定是否會治癒或會因何種風險而失敗，並推導各參數的完全條件後驗分配及其性質。由於邊際後驗分配的數學形式無法明確呈現，再加上需對右設限者判斷其狀態，所以採用屬於馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法的Gibbs抽樣法及適應性拒絕抽樣法(adaptive rejection sampling) ，執行參數之模擬抽樣及設算右設限者之治癒或失敗狀態。實證部分，我們分析Klein and Moeschberger (1997)書中骨髓移植後的血癌病患的資料，並用不同模式之下的參數模擬值計算各對象之條件預測指標(CPO)，換算成各模式的對數擬邊際概似函數值(LPML)，比較不同模式的優劣。 / In case that there are more than one possible failure types, if each subject experiences at most one failure type at one time, then these failure types are called competing risks. Moreover, some subjects have been cured or are immune so they never fail, then they are called the cured ones. This dissertation discusses several mixture models containing competing risks and cure rate. Furthermore, covariates are associated with cure rate, conditional failure rate of each risk, or conditional survival function of each risk, and we propose the Bayesian procedure based on the augmented likelihood function of complete data. For right censored subjects, we make use of imputation to determine whether they were cured or failed by which risk and derive full conditional posterior distributions. Since all marginal posterior distributions don’t have closed forms and right censored subjects need to be identified their statuses, we take Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling of Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate parameter values. We illustrate how to conduct Bayesian analysis by using the bone marrow transplant data from the book written by Klein and Moeschberger (1997). To do model selection, we compute the conditional predictive ordinate(CPO) for every subject under each model, then the goodness is determined by the comparing the value of log of pseudo marginal likelihood (LMPL) of each model. 治癒率模式競爭風險混合模式擴充的概似函數馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法(MCMC) 完全條件後驗分配 Gibbs 抽樣法條件預測指標(CPO) 對數擬邊際概似函數值(LPML) cure rate models competing risks mixture models augmented likelihood functions Markov Chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC) full conditional posterior distributions Gibbs samplings conditional predictive ordinate(CPO) log of pseudo marginal likelihood(LPML)
58	空間相關存活資料之貝氏半參數比例勝算模式 / Bayesian semiparametric proportional odds models for spatially correlated survival data 張凱嵐, Chang, Kai lan Unknown Date (has links) 近來地理資訊系統(GIS)之資料庫受到不同領域的統計學家廣泛的研究，以期建立及分析可描述空間聚集效應及變異之模型，而描述空間相關存活資料之統計模式為公共衛生及流行病學上新興的研究議題。本文擬建立多維度半參數的貝氏階層模型，並結合空間及非空間隨機效應以描述存活資料中的空間變異。此模式將利用多變量條件自回歸(MCAR)模型以檢驗在不同地理區域中是否存有空間聚集效應。而基準風險函數之生成為分析貝氏半參數階層模型的重要步驟，本研究將利用混合Polya樹之方式生成基準風險函數。美國國家癌症研究院之「流行病監測及最終結果」(Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results, SEER)資料庫為目前美國最完整的癌症病人長期追蹤資料，包含癌症病人存活狀況、多重癌症史、居住地區及其他分析所需之個人資料。本文將自此資料庫擷取美國愛荷華州之癌症病人資料為例作實證分析，並以貝氏統計分析中常用之模型比較標準如條件預測指標(CPO)、平均對數擬邊際概似函數值(ALMPL)、離差訊息準則(DIC)分別測試其可靠度。 / The databases of Geographic Information System (GIS) have gained attention among different fields of statisticians to develop and analyze models which account for spatial clustering and variation. There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in public health and epidemiologic studies. In this article, we develop Bayesian multivariate semiparametric hierarchical models to incorporate both spatially correlated and uncorrelated frailties to answer the question of spatial variation in the survival patterns, and we use multivariate conditionally autoregressive (MCAR) model to detect that whether there exists the spatial cluster across different areas. The baseline hazard function will be modeled semiparametrically using mixtures of finite Polya trees. The SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) provides comprehensive cancer data about patient’s survival time, regional information, and others demographic information. We implement our Bayesian hierarchical spatial models on Iowa cancer data extracted from SEER database. We illustrate how to compute the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), the average log-marginal pseudo-likelihood (ALMPL), and deviance information criterion (DIC), which are Bayesian criterions for model checking and comparison among competing models. 空間聚集比例勝算模型貝氏階層模型混合Polya樹馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅模擬多變量條件自回歸模型條件預測指標平均對數擬邊際概似函數值離差訊息準則 spatial clusters proportional odds Bayesian hierarchical model mixture of Polya trees Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) deviance information criterion (DIC)
59	Konstituierungsbezogene Rechtsbehelfe im schiedsrichterlichen Verfahren nach der ZPO Henkel, Thomas 25 June 2007 (has links) Mit den konstituierungsbezogenen Rechtsbehelfen behandelt die Arbeit den Aspekt personeller Konfliktsituationen eines schiedsrichterlichen Verfahrens nach der ZPO. Es geht insbesondere um die Fragen, wie Schiedsrichter bei unterbliebener Mitwirkung einer Partei bestellt werden, auf welchem Weg eine Verfahrenspartei einen Schiedsrichter ablehnen oder dessen Amt sonst beenden kann und wie gegen einen Schiedsspruch vorzugehen ist, wenn die Konstituierung nicht ordnungsgemäß verlief. Definiert und systematisiert werden die Grundsätze und Begriffe der Konstituierung (Kapitel 1 und 2) sowie die Konstituierungshindernisse und Kriterien für die Bestellung von Schiedsrichtern (Kapitel 3 und 4). Im Detail und mit Blick auf die Praxis folgt die Erörterung aller konstituierungsbezogener Rechtsbehelfe (Kapitel 5 bis 8): Während des schiedsrichterlichen Verfahrens handelt es sich dabei um die Verfahren der Ersetzung von Schiedsrichtern (§ 1034 ZPO), der Ersatzbestellung von Schiedsrichtern (§ 1035 ZPO) und der Nachbestellung (§ 1039 ZPO), der Ablehnung von Schiedsrichtern (§ 1037 ZPO) und der Beendigung des Schiedsrichteramts (§ 1038 ZPO). Abschließend wird untersucht, wie Fehler der Konstituierung in den Verfahren nach dem Schiedsspruch geltend zu machen sind, also im Aufhebungsverfahren (§ 1059 ZPO) und im Vollstreckbarerklärungs- oder Anerkennungsverfahren (§§ 1060 f. ZPO). Ausgewertet ist neben der schiedsverfahrensrechtlichen Literatur und Kommentierung insbesondere die umfangreiche Rechtsprechung. / The text discusses the legal remedies for and in connection with the constitution of the arbitral tribunal, in regards to any personal conflict of arbitral proceedings as per the German Code of Civil Procedure (CPO). Hence the focus is on questions of how an arbitrator is to be appointed if one party fails to cooperate, of how a party may challenge an arbitrator or otherwise terminate an arbitrator''s mandate, and of how to proceed with an arbitral award issued by an unduly constituted arbitral tribunal. Chapters 1 and 2 deal with the principles, terms and definitions of the arbitral tribunal’s composition. Chapters 3 and 4 systematise obstacles to such a tribunal’s composition, and the criteria for an arbitrator’s appointment. Chapters 5 to 8 continue with a detailed examination, and focus on current practice with all corresponding remedies. During the arbitral proceedings such remedies make provision for an arbitrator’s replacement (section 1034 CPO), the appointment of an arbitrator (section 1035 CPO) or substitute arbitrator (section 1039 CPO), the challenge of an arbitrator (section 1037 CPO), or the termination of an arbitrator’s mandate (section 1038 CPO). Finally, for cases where an arbitral award has already been granted, the text discusses how an unduly constituted tribunal may be dealt with through proceedings for setting aside an award (section 1059 CPO), or for an award’s enforcement or recognition (sections 1060 f. CPO). In addition to the literature on arbitration and the annotations of the CPO, the substantial amount of legal precedent is particularly evaluated. Aufhebungsgründe Ablehnung Ablehnungsgrund Ablehnungsgründe Ablehnungsverfahren Aufhebungsgrund Befangenheit Benennung Bestellung Bestellungskriterien Bildung des Schiedsgerichts Dienstrechtliche Beschränkungen DIS Ernennung Ersatzbestellung Ersetzungsverfahren ICC Konstituierung Konstituierungsgrundsätze Konstituierungshindernisse Kosten LCIA Offenbarungspflicht Rechtsbehelfe Schiedsgerichtsbarkeit Schiedsrichter Schiedsrichterablehnung Schiedsrichteramt Schiedsspruch Schiedsvereinbarung Unabhängigkeit Unparteilichkeit Verfahrenskosten Vollstreckbarerklärungsverfahren Zivilprozeßordnung ZPO Zusammensetzung des Schiedsgerichts § 1034 ZPO § 1035 ZPO § 1036 ZPO § 1037 ZPO § 1038 ZPO § 1039 ZPO § 1059 ZPO § 1060 ZPO § 1061 ZPO Arbitral Award Arbitration Arbitration Clause Arbitrator Challenge Costs CPO DIS Disclosure German Civil Procedure Code ICC Impartiality Independence Legal Remedy LCIA Remedy 340 Recht 19 Recht ddc:340
60	含存活分率之貝氏迴歸模式李涵君 Unknown Date (has links) 當母體中有部份對象因被治癒或免疫而不會失敗時，需考慮這群對象所佔的比率，即存活分率。本文主要在探討如何以貝氏方法對含存活分率之治癒率模式進行分析，並特別針對兩種含存活分率的迴歸模式，分別是Weibull迴歸模式以及對數邏輯斯迴歸模式，導出概似函數與各參數之完全條件後驗分配及其性質。由於聯合後驗分配相當複雜，各參數之邊際後驗分配之解析形式很難表達出。所以，我們採用了馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法（MCMC）中的Gibbs抽樣法及Metropolis法，模擬產生參數值，以進行貝氏分析。實證部份，我們分析了黑色素皮膚癌的資料，這是由美國Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group所進行的第三階段臨床試驗研究。有關模式選取的部份，我們先分別求出各對象在每個模式之下的條件預測指標（CPO），再據以算出各模式的對數擬邊際概似函數值（LPML），以比較各模式之適合性。 / When we face the problem that part of subjects have been cured or are immune so they never fail, we need to consider the fraction of this group among the whole population, which is the so called survival fraction. This article discuss that how to analyze cure rate models containing survival fraction based on Bayesian method. Two cure rate models containing survival fraction are focused; one is based on the Weibull regression model and the other is based on the log-logistic regression model. Then, we derive likelihood functions and full conditional posterior distributions under these two models. Since joint posterior distributions are both complicated, and marginal posterior distributions don’t have closed form, we take Gibbs sampling and Metropolis sampling of Markov Monte Carlo chain method to simulate parameter values. We illustrate how to conduct Bayesian analysis by using the data from a melanoma clinical trial in the third stage conducted by Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group. To do model selection, we compute the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) for every subject under each model, then the goodness is determined by the comparing the value of log of pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) of each model. 存活分率貝氏治癒率模式 Weibull迴歸模式對數邏輯斯迴歸模式完全條件後驗分配馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法 Gibbs抽樣法條件預測指標對數擬邊際概似函數值 surviving fraction Bayesian cure rate models Weibull regression model log-logistic regression model full conditional posterior distributions Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) Gibbs sampling conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) log of pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML)

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