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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
11

Performance of socially responsible investment funds in South Africa

du Plessis, Ruschelle January 2015 (has links)
Socially responsible investing has presented itself as a growing, multifaceted, advanced and sophisticated investment philosophy. Socially responsible investment (SRI) involves incorporating social, ethical and responsible investment objectives with financial investment objectives during the investment decision-making process. Social, ethical and responsible investment objectives are set in line with environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) criteria which are established within the SRI strategy followed. SRI strategies include screening (negative, positive and best-of-sector), shareholder activism and cause-based investing. Although international SRI markets such as that of the United States of America and the United Kingdom are sophisticated and established markets, the South African SRI market is still relatively new and is yet to reach its full potential. Thus, as a growing market, little research regarding the long term risk-adjusted performance of SRI funds in South Africa has been conducted. The long term risk-adjusted performance of the sample of SRI funds was measured through the use of five risk-adjusted performance measures, namely the Treynor ratio, Sharpe ratio, Jensen’s alpha, Sortino ratio and Omega ratio, and through the use of three performance measurement models which included the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model. The risk-adjusted performance of the sample of SRI funds was measured with the intent to establish if these funds out- or underperformed against three benchmark categories, namely the Financial Times Stock Exchange/Johannesburg Stock Exchange (FTSE/JSE) SRI Index, a matched sample of conventional investment (non-SRI) funds and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. The probable effect of the 2007/08 global financial crisis was also measured to analyse whether such a hazardous market event affected the performance of the SRI funds. According to the results and findings, the risk-adjusted performance of the SRI funds has improved over the research period. However, the SRI funds neither outperformed nor underperformed against the three benchmark categories over the research period. The performance measurement models’ analysis indicated that the SRI funds were less sensitive to market fluctuations, more exposed to small capitalisation portfolios, more growth-oriented, and exhibited significant momentum after the period of the 2007/08 global financial crisis. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the SRI funds significantly underperformed against the non-SRI funds during the Performance of socially responsible investment funds in South Africa research period. Mixed results were obtained with regards to the probable effect of the 2007/08 global financial crisis on the performance of the SRI funds.
12

Performance of socially responsible investment funds in South Africa

du Plessis, Ruschelle January 2015 (has links)
Socially responsible investing has presented itself as a growing, multifaceted, advanced and sophisticated investment philosophy. Socially responsible investment (SRI) involves incorporating social, ethical and responsible investment objectives with financial investment objectives during the investment decision-making process. Social, ethical and responsible investment objectives are set in line with environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) criteria which are established within the SRI strategy followed. SRI strategies include screening (negative, positive and best-of-sector), shareholder activism and cause-based investing. Although international SRI markets such as that of the United States of America and the United Kingdom are sophisticated and established markets, the South African SRI market is still relatively new and is yet to reach its full potential. Thus, as a growing market, little research regarding the long term risk-adjusted performance of SRI funds in South Africa has been conducted. The long term risk-adjusted performance of the sample of SRI funds was measured through the use of five risk-adjusted performance measures, namely the Treynor ratio, Sharpe ratio, Jensen’s alpha, Sortino ratio and Omega ratio, and through the use of three performance measurement models which included the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model. The risk-adjusted performance of the sample of SRI funds was measured with the intent to establish if these funds out- or underperformed against three benchmark categories, namely the Financial Times Stock Exchange/Johannesburg Stock Exchange (FTSE/JSE) SRI Index, a matched sample of conventional investment (non-SRI) funds and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. The probable effect of the 2007/08 global financial crisis was also measured to analyse whether such a hazardous market event affected the performance of the SRI funds. According to the results and findings, the risk-adjusted performance of the SRI funds has improved over the research period. However, the SRI funds neither outperformed nor underperformed against the three benchmark categories over the research period. The performance measurement models’ analysis indicated that the SRI funds were less sensitive to market fluctuations, more exposed to small capitalisation portfolios, more growth-oriented, and exhibited significant momentum after the period of the 2007/08 global financial crisis. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the SRI funds significantly underperformed against the non-SRI funds during the Performance of socially responsible investment funds in South Africa research period. Mixed results were obtained with regards to the probable effect of the 2007/08 global financial crisis on the performance of the SRI funds.
13

O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica

Sousa, Victor Pereira 15 May 2015 (has links)
Submitted by Victor Sousa (vpsousa@globo.com) on 2016-10-07T15:34:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-11-09T13:17:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-12-06T11:47:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-06T11:47:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-15 / In this work we analyze the systematic risk implied in the Brazilian electricity distribution sector and compare it with the evolution of regulatory return rate (WACC Regulatory), in order to identify the presence of an additional risk premium with characteristics of regulatory risk. The energy distribution sector and its energy tariffs (price-caps) are regulated by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL). The agency performs tariff revisions, every four/five years, in order to reestablish the financial-economic balance of concessionaires and to provide any adjustments to the regulatory model. The main step consists in measure the minimum regulatory return to reward the invested capital. Currently the sector goes through the 4th cycle of rate review (form 2015 to 2019) and, unlike the first two processes; ANEEL does not include the regulatory risk component in the composition of the Regulatory WACC (from CAPM methodology). Despite advances in the creation and consolidation of the regulatory model, the sector has faced serious problems in the regulatory/political front and huge financial losses in all electricity segments, resulting in a significant increase in systematic risk. The main sector’s events and their side-effects were analyzed in this work. In order to identify factors that explain the presence of additional risk in electric utilities, this work analyzes the evolution of some electricity distributors’ betas and applied a multi-factor panel data model. The main conclusion is that regulatory instability and institutional uncertainties affects the sector`systematic risk (betas) and show evidences to support the presence of a non-diversifiable regulatory risk. On the other hand, a stable and properly regulatory framework reduces the variance of returns, reduces the betas and the required rate of return for investments in a sector that is capital intensive and long-term investment. / Este trabalho objetiva analisar o risco sistemático presente no setor de distribuição de energia elétrica, avaliar a evolução da taxa de retorno regulatória (WACC Regulatório) e identificar a presença de um prêmio de risco adicional com características de risco regulatório. O setor de distribuição de energia elétrica por seguir a lógica de monopólio natural é regulado pelo Estado. Nesse sentido, de forma periódica (geralmente a cada 4 anos), a agência reguladora realiza um processo de revisão tarifária com objetivo de reestabelecer o equilíbrio econômico-financeiro das concessionárias, além de promover eventuais ajustes no modelo regulatório. Em uma das etapas do processo é definida a taxa de remuneração regulatória com objetivo de remunerar o capital investido frente aos riscos assumidos pela companhia. Atualmente o setor passa pelo 4ª Ciclo de Revisão Tarifária '4CRTP', compreendendo o período de 2015 a 2019 e, ao contrário dos dois primeiros processos, a ANEEL não inclui o componente de risco regulatório na formação do custo de capital próprio. Entretanto, o Sistema Elétrico Brasileiro, apesar dos avanços com a criação e consolidação do modelo institucional, tem enfrentado graves problemas e elevadas perdas financeiras em todos os segmentos. Com falhas de implementação, os esforços governamentais geraram problemas ainda mais severos, culminado com aumento significativo do risco sistemático. Os principais acontecimentos e seus efeitos foram analisados neste trabalho. De forma a identificar fatores que explicam a presença adicional de risco nas empresas de energia elétrica, foi analisada a evolução das medidas de risco sistemáticos (betas) de algumas empresas do setor elétrico e aplicado um modelo econométrico de regressão de multi-fatores em dados em painel. A principal conclusão é que a instabilidade regulatória e insegurança institucional afeta o risco sistemático das empresas (betas) e torna evidente a presença de um risco regulatório não diversificável. Por outro lado, uma regulação feita de forma adequada reduz a variância dos retornos, reduz os betas e a taxa de retorno requerida para investimentos em um setor que é intensivo em capital e de longo prazo.
14

Risk Management and Sustainability - A Study of Risk and Return in Portfolios With Different Levels of Sustainability / Finansiell riskhantering och hållbarhet - En studie om risk och avkastning i portföljer med olika nivåer av hållbarhet

Borg, Magnus, Ternqvist, Lucas January 2023 (has links)
This thesis examines the risk profile of Electronically Traded Funds and the dependence of the ESG rating on risk. 527 ETFs with exposure globally were analyzed. Risk measures considered were Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, while some other metrics of risk was used, such as the volatility, maximum drawdown, tail dependece, and copulas. Stress tests were conducted in order to test the resilience against market downturns. The ETFs were grouped by their ESG rating as well as by their carbon intensity. The results show that the lowest risk can be found for ETFs with either the lowest ESG rating or the highest. Generally, a higher ESG rating implies a lower risk, but without statistical significance in many cases. Further, ETFs with a higher ESG rating showed, on average, a lower maximum drawdown, a higher tail dependence, and more resilience in market downturns. Regarding volatility, the average was shown to be lower on average for ETFs with a higher ESG rating, but no statistical significance could be found. Interestingly, the results show that investing sustainably returns a better financial performance at a lower risk, thus going against the Capital Asset Pricing Model. / Denna studie undersöker riskprofilen för elektroniskt handlade fonder och sambandet mellan risk och hållbarhetsbetyg. 527 ETF:er med global exponering analyserades. De riskmått som användes var Value-at-Risk och Expected Shortfall, och några andra mått för risk användes, däribland volatilitet, största intradagsnedgång, samband i svansfördelning, och copulas. Stresstest utfördes för att testa motsåtndskraften i marknadsnedgångar. ETF:erna grupperades med hjälp av deras hållbarhetsbetyg och deras koldioxidintensitet. Resultatet visar att lägst risk finns i ETF:er med högst respektive lägst hållbarhetsbetyg. Generellt har ETF:er med högre hållbarhetsbetyg en lägre risk, med endast viss statistisk signifikans. Därtill har ETF:er med högre hållbarhetsbetyg, i genomsnitt, en lägre största intradagsnedgång, högre samband i fördelningssvansarna och är mer motståndskraftiga i marknadsnedgångar. Volatiliteten är i genomsnitt lägre desto högre hållbarhetsbetyget är, men detta resultat saknar statistisk signifikans. Ett intressant resultat är att om man investerar hållbart kan man få en högre avkastning med en lägre risk, vilket går emot Capital Asset Pricing Model.
15

Capital market theories and pricing models : evaluation and consolidation of the available body of knowledge

Laubscher, Eugene Rudolph 05 1900 (has links)
The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)
16

Capital market theories and pricing models : evaluation and consolidation of the available body of knowledge

Laubscher, Eugene Rudolph 05 1900 (has links)
The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)
17

不動產投資信託與直接不動產投資關係之探討 / The relationship between real estate investment trusts and direct real estate investment

邱逸芬, Chiu, Yi Fen Unknown Date (has links)
台灣不動產投資信託(T-REITs)自2005年發行至今已逾六年,然其市場表現仍不如發行之初所預期。過去國內已有許多研究針對T-REITs市場發展進行探討,然而目前就T-REITs與直接不動產投資市場價格表現間之相關研究尚付之闕如。有鑑於此,本研究藉由共整合與Granger因果關係檢定,檢視REITs與直接不動產市場間之關聯性,了解台灣與美國之REITs市場表現差異及其影響因素,進而作為改進T-REITs運作機制或架構之參考依據。 實證結果發現,美國之REITs與直接不動產市場之間存在共整合關係。此結果表示,長期而言,這兩者可能具有相似之風險分散效益。此外,透過Granger因果關係檢定發現REITs領先於直接不動產,乃因前者市場較具效率。另一方面,台灣之REITs與直接不動產市場之間則不具有共整合以及領先或落後關係,然直接不動產當期價格仍會受到本身與REITs之前期價格影響。 本研究進一步分析台、美兩國實證結果之差異原因如下:資料的樣本期間、REITs市場規模、存在於T-REITs市場之集中性風險以及潛在的代理問題。其中,針對T-REITs潛在代理問題,本研究藉由分析股票與T-REIT報酬率之波動性,發現T-REIT之不動產管理機構若與母集團相關者,則其市場表現較差。因此,我們得出T-REITs市場發展主要是受限於代理問題之結論。本研究成果不僅有助於改善T-REITs市場效率,亦可提供學術與實務之參考。 / The mechanism of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Taiwan (or T-REITs) was launched in 2005, however, T-REITs market did not perform as expected. What caused the limited development of T-REITs market? Current literature on the performance between T-REITs and direct real estate investment is limited. Through the cointegration and Granger causality tests, the purpose of this study is hence to explore the short-term and long-term dynamics between REITs and direct real estate markets in the U.S. and Taiwan, respectively. This study presents evidence of the cointegration relationship between REITs and direct real estate in the U.S. It implies that the diversification properties of these two assets are likely to be similar over the long horizon. According to the Granger causality test, REITs leads direct real estate due to the market information efficiency. These findings are consistent with those of previous studies. On the other hand, we find no cointegration and lead-lag relation between T-REITs and commercial real estate. Moreover, the current commercial transaction price is affected by both its and T-REIT previous price. By comparing the difference between the results of these two countries, there are several possible explanations for the different results between the U.S. and Taiwan, including difference in sample period, market capitalization, concentrated risk, and most importantly, the potential agency problem existing in T-REITs market. Finally, the underperformance of parent-related management T-REIT is verified through the volatilities of stock and T-REIT returns. Therefore, we conclude that the limited development of T-REITs is caused by the agency problem in REITs market. Results of this study may provide T-REITs market for improving its efficiency, as well as for the reference for both academics and real practices.
18

Kapitalkostnadsberäkning och investeringsbedömning i några dominerande svenska industri- och fastighetsföretag

Younan, Rudy, Kander, Isak January 2023 (has links)
Bakgrund: Betydelsen av investeringsbedömningen kan inte överbetonas till följd av dess långsiktiga fördelar för företagets giltighet och operativa funktionalitet. Beräkningsmetoder som används för investeringsbedömning bistår med nödvändig kunskap för att underlätta beslutsfattande samt för att skapa sig en tydligare bild över det föreslagna investeringsprojektet. Företag investerar för att upprätthålla sina ekonomiska mål och värderingen av olika investeringsalternativ spelar således en central roll för företagets ekonomiska fortlevnad och utveckling. Kapitalinvesteringar är ofta omfattande och förväntas generera värde på lång sikt, vilket formar företagets ekonomiska fokusområden. Detta belyser viktigheten av en kvalitativ bedömning för olika investeringsalternativ och deras respektive utvecklingsmöjligheter. Syfte: Genom att undersöka användningsområdet för kalkylräntan avser studien att öka kunskapen för sambandet mellan kalkylräntebestämningen och investeringsbedömningen. Detta som ett delsyfte till att undersöka vilka metoder som några svenska industri- och fastighetsföretag använder. Studien avser även vidare att beskriva och analysera företagens investeringskalkylering och kapitalstruktur. Metod: Studien har antagit en kvalitativ forskningsansats med semistrukturerade intervjuer med svenska industri- och fastighetsbolag. Respondenterna valdes ut genom ett målstyrt urval och vidare beskriver metoden hur insamling av det empiriska materialet har gått till. För att besvara studiens problemformulering har det empiriska materialet analyserats med den teoretiska referensramen. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visar tydliga skillnader i relation till den klassiska kapitalteorin och att långsiktiga strategiska investeringar i viss utsträckning tenderar att inkräkta på investeringar som kan generera en högre internränta och således vara mer ekonomiskt lönsam, men som är av mindre strategisk betydelse för bolaget. Detta strider mot teorins förutsättningar om att uppnå en normativt optimal kapitalstruktur. En viktig aspekt av det är att företagen försöker bibehålla en helhetlig bild av investeringarna där förutsättningar för nyutveckling ska uppmärksammas, vilket i regel inte strider mot kapitalteorins antaganden. Men i relation till det kan dock investeringskalkyler endast förse bolag med en begränsa uppfattning av investeringens ekonomiska konsekvenser. / Background: The importance of the investment appraisal cannot be overemphasized as a result of its long-term benefits to the company's validity and operational functionality. Calculation methods used for investment assessment assist with the necessary knowledge to facilitate decision-making, as well as to create a clearer picture of the proposed investment project. Companies invest to maintain their financial goals and the valuation of different investment alternatives thus plays a central role for the company's financial survival and development. Capital investments are often extensive and expected to generate value over the long term, shaping the company's financial focus areas. This highlights the importance of a qualitative assessment for different investment options and their respective development opportunities. Purpose: By examining the area of use for the discount rate, the study intends to increase knowledge of the connection between the discount rate determination and the investment assessment. This as a partial aim to investigate which methods some Swedish industrial and real estate companies use. The study also intends to describe and analyze the companies' investment calculation and capital structure Method: The study has adopted a qualitative research approach with semi-structured interviews with Swedish industrial and property companies. The respondents were selected through a targeted selection and the method further describes the collection of the empirical material. In order to answer the study's problem formulation, the empirical material has been analyzed with the theoretical frame of reference. Conclusion: The results of the study show clear differences in relation to the classic capital theory and that long-term strategic investments to a certain extent tend to encroach on investments that can generate a higher internal rate of return and thus be more financially profitable, but which are of less strategic importance for the company. This goes against the theory's prerequisites for achieving a normatively optimal capital structure. An important aspect of it is that the companies try to maintain a holistic view of the investments where the conditions for new development must be noticed, which as a rule does not contradict the assumptions of the capital theory. However, in relation to that, investment calculations can only provide companies with a limited idea of the financial consequences of the investment.
19

台灣股票市場的長期超額報酬與股票風險溢酬值 / The Equity Excess Return and Risk Premium of Taiwan Stock Market

簡瑞璞, Chien, Dennis Jui-Pu Unknown Date (has links)
已實現投資報酬率與無風險利率之差、被稱為超額報酬,而股票的預期報酬率超過無風險利率的部份則為股票風險溢酬,是許多資產評價模型的重要依據,例如資本資產定價模型。有不同的理論架構解釋說明風險溢酬值,例如;股票風險溢酬的迷思、短期損失的憎惡、生還存留因素和回歸與偏離平均值等等。 研究台灣股市的超額報酬與股票風險溢酬,有助投資大眾和企業理性面對股市的預期報酬和風險,對台股才有合理的期望報酬值。分析1967年迄2003年的台灣金融市場,計算過去37年長期的幾何平均年報酬率,以臺灣證券交易所發行量加權股價指數為台股市場報酬率,已實現台股實質年報酬率為6.71%。無風險報酬率使用第一銀行的一年期定期存款利率,實質台幣存款年利率為3.07%,消費者物價指數年增率則為4.80%。以年資料計算的台股實質超額報酬,算術和幾何值分別為12.48%和3.63%(年),計算月資料算術平均和幾何平均值分別為0.77%和0.25%(月)。過去37年長期的台股超額報酬現象未較歐美市場的情況更加明顯,也比一般市場的預期報酬率低。 因資料取得的限制、台股的理論超額報酬方面,1991年迄2003年的近十三年來,經固定股利成長模式和盈餘成長模式的兩種計算方式,台股的實質超額報酬分別為 0.6%和-4.3%,此時期台股的投資報酬率比起台幣存款並不突出、且是低超額報酬。同期的已實現的實質超額報酬值;算術平均1.69%和幾何平均-3.35%。評估目前台股風險溢酬,將十分接近過去37年長期歷史資料得到的超額報酬數值,算術年均值為12.48%(年)和0.77%(月),幾何平均分別為3.63%(年)和0.25%(月),低風險溢酬是當前台灣股票市場的一般現象。 / The difference between the observed historical investment return and the risk-free interest rate is the excess return. The equity risk premium, ERP is the expected rate of return on the aggregate stock market in excess of the rate of risk-free security. ERP is one of important factor of many asset-pricing models, including Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM. There were many theories and factors to explain the equity risk premium; equity premium puzzle, myopic loss aversion, survivorship bias, mean reversion & aversion and etc. Studying the value of Taiwan equity excess return and risk premium is fundamental for investors and institutions evaluating the expected market investment return and risk. Analyzing the data from year 1967 to 2003 for thirty-seven years long holding period, Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index as Taiwan stock market return, the realized real return was 6.71%. One-year bank time deposit rate as NT dollars risk-free asset rate and real interest rate was 3.07% and consumer price index, CPI annual growth rate was 4.80%. The historical real yearly excess return was 12.45% for arithmetic mean and 3.63% geometric mean; the historical real monthly excess return was 0.77% for arithmetic mean and 0.25% geometric mean. Taiwan realized equity excess returns were not higher than the returns in the developed countries and were also lower than the market's expectation. Due to the limits of available data, the theoretical equity excess returns that were calculated on two theoretical models; Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model (dividend yield model) and earnings yield model were 0.6% and -4.3% from year 1991 to year 2003. Comparing the same period of historical realized excess returns of 1.69% for arithmetic mean and -3.35% geometric mean, Taiwan stock market returns were not spectacular. The current equity risk premium of Taiwan stock market is low and should be near the level of the long historical realized equity excess return.

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