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本文主要在探討在較為短的時間段以及不同的金融環境之下，是否仍然能捕捉到匯率市場中主要解釋投組報酬變動的共同風險因子－平均超額報酬以及利差報酬。我們依據重要金融事件將全樣本分為八個子樣本；總共使用39種幣別並將1983年11月至2015年10月的遠期貼水由小到大排序後，依序建構六個投資組合。全文以美國投資者的觀點出發。結果顯示平均超額報酬無論是在長期或短期的時間段下，仍然為匯率市場中解釋匯率報酬變動的主要風險因子。然而，利差報酬則不然。在銀行危機期間，利差報酬與第二主要成分之相關係數皆為高度負相關。近期自2008年次貸危機開始，利差報酬與解釋投組變動的第二主要成分之相關係數也從先前的0.8~0.9降至-0.80.此結果顯示利差交易似乎在次貸危機之後有所轉變。此外利差風險因子無法有效的解釋動能報酬。 / This paper investigates whether or not the common risk factors, dollar and carry trade risk, in currency markets proposed by Lustig, Roussanov and Verdelhan (2011) will still exist even under a short-run period with a concern of different financial backgrounds. A split of full sample into eight subsamples with respect of financial events is made. A total of 39 currencies is used to build six portfolios on the basis of the forward discounts from November 1983 to October 2015. The whole paper is in the view of an American investor. The finding suggests that under both long-run and short-run period, the dollar return is always the common factor in currency markets. However, it is not the same case for the carry trade return. During bank crises, the carry trade return is strongly negative correlated with the second component. The carry trade return turns out to have a negative correlation with the second component during and after the subprime crisis, decreasing from 0.8~0.9 in the previous subsamples to -0.80. It indicates that the desirability of carry trade activities has changed since the subprime crisis. Besides, the carry trade risk has a little power to explain the variations of momentum returns.

Nous étudions des stratégies d'investissement dont l'utilisation s'est généralisée sur les marchés financiers, et leur impact sur le prix des actifs et le risque de marché.Dans le premier chapitre nous nous intéressons aux stratégies de diversification de portefeuille. Nous montronsau travers d'un modèle théorique que si la diversification a un effet positif au niveau individuel pour l'investisseur,elle crée également des liens entre les différents investisseurs et titres, qui peuvent se révéler dangereux d'un pointde vue systémique. Nous mesurons les deux effets afin de discuter de la désirabilité globale de la diversification.Le second chapitre considère les stratégies d'investissement basées sur le groupement de titres financierspartageant certaines caractéristiques en différentes classes, ou styles. Nous postulons que ces stratégies créentun co-mouvement excessif entre titres d'un même style, qui seront vendus et achetés ensemble au sein d'une mêmeclasse. Appliquant cette intuition aux notes des agences sur les obligations, nous montrons qu'une obligation quichange de note se met en effet à varier comme sa nouvelle note, même quand les fondamentaux économiques ne lejustifient pas.Dans le troisième chapitre nous étudions trois types d'investisseurs opérant sur le marché des changes : les carry traders, les chartistes et les fondamentalistes. Notre modèle théorique suggère que l'interaction entre cestrois règles d'investissement peut expliquer la déconnexion bien documentée entre le taux de change et sa valeurfondamentale, ainsi que provoquer un effondrement endogène des taux de change. / We study how popular investment rules in financial markets may induce endogenous movements inasset prices, leading to higher market risk.In the first chapter, we focus on portfolio diversification. We show through a theoretical model that this strategyis beneficial at the individual investor level, but also creates endogenous links between assets and investors, whichcan be dangerous from a systemic perspective. We measure both effects in order to discuss the overall desirabilityof diversification.The second chapter considers strategies based on grouping assets that share common characteristics intodifferent classes, or styles. We postulate that these strategies create excess comovement between assets of asimilar style, as they are traded together as part of the same class. Applying this reasoning to bond credit ratings,we show that bonds joining a new rating class indeed start comoving more with the bonds of this rating, evenwhen fundamental factors suggest otherwise.In the third chapter, we study three investors who operate in the foreign exchange market: carry traders,chartists and fundamentalists. We provide a theoretical model which suggests that the interaction between thesetrading rules may explain the well documented exchange rate disconnect from its fundamental value, and lead toendogenous currency crashes.

The main purpose of this research was to evaluate use of Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF) as an imputation method when persistent binary outcomes are missing in a Randomized Controlled Trial. A simulation study was performed to see the effect of dropout rate and type of dropout (random or associated with treatment arm) on Type I error and power. Properties of estimated event rates, treatment effect, and bias were also assessed. LOCF was also compared to two versions of complete case analysis - Complete1 (excluding all observations with missing data), and Complete2 (only carrying forward observations if the event is observed to occur). LOCF was not recommended because of the bias. Type I error was increased, and power was decreased. The other two analyses also had poor properties. LOCF analysis was applied to a mammogram dataset, with results similar to the simulation study.

本研究欲探討國家商品貿易特性在匯率報酬評價中扮演的角色，決定匯率報酬的因素非常多，包含利率、市場波動、國際貿易及國家政治等非常廣泛的因素，而國家商品貿易特性也會是影響匯率報酬評價的可能因素之一。本研究以「進口比率」(Import Ratios) 衡量國家的商品貿易特性，也以該數值建構投資組合。研究結果發現，去除商品貿易特性特殊之國家後，進口比例(Import Ratio)越高之投資組合，其遠期外匯貼水也偏高，且外匯超額報酬也隨之遞增。 在Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013)論文中認為，國家的商品貿易特性是造成不同國家利率高低差異的原因，所以該作者認為國家商品貿易特性極有可能是利差交易背後的原因。然而，本研究的Fama-Macbeth 兩步驟橫斷面迴歸實證結果發現，國家的商品貿易特性確實是造成國家利率差異的因素之一，但利差交易背後的風險背後的因素，雖然包含國家商品貿易因素，但仍包含其他因素，且商品貿易因子(IMX)無法取代利差交易因子(HML)在外匯超額報酬評價模型中的角色。 此外，本研究亦嘗試在Lustig所提出之市場因子(RX)和利差交易因子(HML)的兩因子模型中，再額外加入商品貿易因子(IMX)，構成匯率評價的三因子模型，但研究結果發現不論是在遠期外匯貼水投資組合或商品貿易投資組合中，三因子模型都沒有優於兩因子模型。 / There are many factors in determinant of exchange rate returns, such as interest rates, market volatility, international trade and politics. The purpose of this research is considering commodity trade in the pricing model of excess return of currency market. This research use “Import Ratios” to measure the characteristic of different countries’ commodity trade. We use import ratios to construct “Import Ratio Sort Portfolio”. After removing the countries which commodity trade characteristics are special, we could see when import ratios is higher, the forward discount and exchange rate return are also higher in import ratio sort portfolio. Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013) thought the commodity trade is the reason that cause interest rate differences between countries. In this research, the result of Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that commodity trade is one of the reasons that cause interest rate differences. It means that there are other risks behind carry trade. In the pricing model of excess return of currency market, HML factor can’t be replaced by IMX factor. We also try to construct three-factor model, which consider excess return, carry trade, and commodity trade simultaneously. But the result shows that three-factor model can not have better explanatory power than Lustig, Roussanov, and Verdelhan(2011)’s two-factor model.

Interested by the relation of function and fashion expression, this project choose ‘carry’ as an example function to dive in. It explores how ‘carry’ affects the expression of wearing and how it can be interpret into fashion expression. The research question - what do we carry in life - gives the foundation in the developing of an aesthetic for sustaining. Problem solving was the methodology that I adopted from Industrial design. Together with other methods, it helped me in deign rationale. During the exploration, ‘carry’ is analyzed, decomposed and translated into a conceptual collection. The interpretation of ‘carry’ is not functional oriented or literal-symbol inspired. The dynamic moment of functioning is more of the focus rather than a static expression of garment. In addition, minimized fashion expression is also discussed as the aesthetic of sustainability. / Program: Modedesignutbildningen

Hlavním cílem této práce byl souhrnný pohled na trh úrokových futures. Z počátku byly vysvětleny základní pojmy a vztahy a postupně byly přidávány poznatky o jednotlivých arbitrážních a zajišťovacích vztazích. Důraz byl kladen na precizní vysvětlení dané problematiky na příkladech za použití reálných dat z trhu.

I propose a global risk factor – Currency Traded Risk (CTR). This risk factor is the first to identify the directional link between currencies and equities. CTR captures the genesis of financial globalization, and contains the greatest predictive ability to date for monthly returns on a global stock portfolio. Theoretically, return expectation is intimately linked to time-varying risk premia. Due to the intrinsic scope of currency values in integrating the world’s financial markets, information on time-varying risk premia prices into currencies at greater speed, scale, and global consensus, relative other asset classes. High interest rate currencies proxy as a risk-on asset class. Low interest rate currencies proxy as a risk-off asset class. Innovations in these currencies’ values summarize global risk premia and forecast equity market returns. CTR measures two sources of global risk premia; the difference between averaged spot returns of high interest rate currencies and low interest rate currencies, and the difference between implied and realized volatility of high interest rate currencies. Using recursive regressions, CTR predicts monthly MSCI World Index© returns out of sample, with R2’s consistent at 10% from 2008 to 2017. Currencies track global risk premia, whereas equities respond to it.

It is hypothesized that individuals make reproductive decisions based on current assessments of their physiological condition and environmental conditions. For female lesser scaup (Aythya affinis), breeding occurs after an energetically costly spring migration. Increasing fat reserves (i.e., ‘body condition’) prior to breeding allows a female to produce a larger clutch of eggs, but time spent gaining body condition is costly in terms of time allowed to raise ducklings before freezing conditions in the fall. In Chapter 2 I explored rate of pre-breeding body condition gain in female lesser scaup, and how that rate influenced clutch size. Spring phenology, measured by proxy as water temperature, and water depth strongly influenced the rate at which females increased body condition. Early springs with low water levels led to greater rates of body condition gain in female scaup. The higher the rate of body condition gain, the larger the clutch of eggs females produced. Body condition is also an important determinant of breeding in female ducks; females in poor body condition are more likely to forego breeding. I explored how body condition, wetland conditions, and prior experience influence a female’s decision to breed in Chapter 3. Body condition was a strong determinant of when a female bred, with females in good body condition breeding earlier than females in poorer body condition. Habitat conditions were also important, with drought reducing the proportion of breeding lesser scaup females. In Chapter 4 I examined survival costs of reproduction in female scaup. Nesting exposes females to increased predation risk (a concurrent survival cost), and reduced post-breeding body condition may reduce female survival the subsequent non-breeding season (a serial, or ‘downstream’, survival cost). Female survival during breeding and non-breeding seasons was most correlated with breeding season water level on the study site, but in opposite directions. Breeding season survival increased with increasing water levels, while non-breeding season survival declined. High water levels on the study site increased the availability of presumably high-security nesting habitat, and also increased female reproductive effort. The former increased breeding season survival, while the latter reduced non-breeding season survival.

<p>Fast addition is essential in many DSP algorithms. Various structures have been introduced to speed up the time critical carry propagation. For high throughput applications, however, it may be necessary to introduce pipelining. In this report the power consumption of four different adder structures, with varying word length and different number of pipeline cuts, is compared. </p><p>Out of the four adder structures compared, the Kogge-Stone parallel prefix adder proves to be the best choice most of the time. The Brent-Kung parallel prefix adder is also a good choice, but the maximal throughput does not reach as high as the maximal throughput of the Kogge-Stone parallel prefix adder.</p>