Samhället är mer eller mindre konstant utsatt för risker. De flesta av dem är så små, och har kanske till och med så pass obetydande effekter för individen om de realiseras, att vi negligerar dem i våra dagliga beslut. Vid vissa tillfällen står vid dock inför beslut som är betydligt svårare, t.ex. i vilken mån vi ska handla kostsamma försäkringar för stora olyckor som högst osannolikt inträffar men skulle få katastrofala konsekvenser. Liknande situationer uppstår för centrala beslutsfattare där man fattar beslut att genomföra riskreducerande åtgärder i samband med potentiella katastrofer. Sådana åtgärder finansieras genom skattemedel och kanske kan man då kräva att myndigheter åtminstone försöker redovisa de förväntade kostnaderna och fördelarna som följs av besluten. För detta ändamål kan man använda kostnads-nyttoanalys, vilket vanligtvis rekommenderas för riskhantering inom t.ex. vägtrafik, eller i viss mån den mindre avancerade kostnads-effektanalysen. Riskanalysens utformning är bl.a. beroende av om man hanterar risk (man kan tilldela utfallen sannolikheter) eller osäkerhet (man känner till utfallen men kan inte tilldela dem sannolikheter) och begränsas vanligtvis av en mängd ovissheter, såsom värden för olika ingående parametrar (t.ex. värdet på ett statistiskt liv). Detta arbete tar upp teori angående värdering ex ante av kostnader i samband med potentiella katastrofer och hur dessa värden kan användas under risk eller osäkerhet i en kvantitativ riskanalys. Med hjälp av det försöker jag beskriva i stora drag hur man skulle kunna värdera den ekonomiska nyttan av riskreducerande åtgärder i samband med den s.k. fågelinfluensan. Mina slutsatser är att en probabilistisk ansats och en kvantitativ riskanalys försvåras av bl.a. ett knapphändigt material för sannolikhetstolkningar, förekomsten av kollektiv risk och svårigheter i att värdera t.ex. statistiska liv. Socialstyrelsen är nationell samordnare av arbetet med förebyggande åtgärder i samband med potentiella pandemier men varken använder eller rekommenderar andra myndigheter att använda nyttobaserade beslutskriterier som en del av beslutsunderlaget i samband med den s.k. fågelinfluensan (i detta fall). Kanske borde det tillhöra deras uppgifter att se över möjligheterna att använda samhällsekonomiska utredningar vid sådana situationer. Istället använder de vad som liknar en försiktighetsprincip, vilket också kan försvaras under förutsättningen att riskerna är påtagliga. För stora och långsiktiga beslut borde man istället införa en snävare anti-katastrof-princip innefattande en prioriteringsordning för när man, baserat på om det är möjligt och utredningsekonomiskt motiverat, ska genomföra kostnads-nyttoanalyser och när man istället ska genomföra kostnads-effektanalyser. De kan sedan vara en del av ett större beslutsunderlag. / Our society is constantly exposed to risks. Most of them are so small, and maybe even have so little effect if they occur, that we disregard them in our daily decisions. Quite often, however, we face decisions that are harder for us to make, as whether or not to buy expensive insurance to cover for accidents that have only a small probability to occur but also catastrophic consequences. Similar situations appear for central decision makers when they decide whether or not to reduce a certain catastrophic risk for the society as a whole. Those actions are financed through taxes and therefore it might be fair to say that the authorities should at least try to account for the possible benefits and costs associated with a risk reducing programme. For this you may use Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), which is usually recommended for use in, for example, risk management for traffic risks, or the less advanced Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA). The shape and form of the risk analysis is to a great deal dependent of whether you are dealing with risk (it’s possible to assign the predicted states probabilities) or uncertainty (it’s not possible to assign the predicted states probabilities) and is also usually limited by a number of other uncertainties, say in value parameters (e.g. the value of a statistical life, VSL). This paper deals with theories regarding how to value (ex ante) the costs of potential catastrophes and how these values could be used in dealing with risk or uncertainty in a quantitative risk analysis. From there I try to describe how, possibly, you could value the benefits from programmes reducing risks of an avian influenza. My conclusions are that a probabilistic approach in a quantitative analysis is complicated by, among other things, the short amount of data necessary to compute objective probabilities, the existence of collective risks and for example difficulties in measuring VSL. The Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare (Socialstyrelsen) is the national coordinator for all work regarding risk reducing actions for potential pandemics, but the board neither uses nor recommends other authorities to use utility-based criteria as a part of their decision material when dealing with, in this case, the bird flue. Quite possibly it should be a part of their work to look into the possibilities of using economic evaluations in these situations. Instead they use what resembles a Precautionary Principle, which also can be used on justified grounds as long as the risks are highly present. What should be done for large and long term decision making, though, is to define a narrower Anti-Catastrophe Principle containing orders of priorities for when, based on if its possible and financially motivated, to use CBA and when to use CEA. Those analyses could then be used along with any other decision material.

This thesis examines the evaluation of the economic, environmental and social effects of dams, and lessons learned from previous dams. It then focuses on cost benefit analysis as a decision-making tool pre-project for evaluating the potential gains and losses of building a dam; and as a framework for evaluating dams in operation. It reviews the basic assumptions required for a legitimate cost benefit analysis, and the inherent limitations of this method. It uses the Sardar Sarovar dam as a case study for the use and abuse of cost benefit analysis in decision-making, interstate politics, propaganda and activism. It also illustrates the difficulties in dividing costs and benefits in an equitable manner at national, state, and grassroots levels.

Climate change tests the limits of human understanding of complexity and uncertainty. It challenges assumptions about our presumed power of control over this planet. This paper examines the theory of how governmental executive branch agencies make regulation decisions about climate change using the decision-making methodologies of cost-benefit analysis and the precautionary principle, and as influenced by perceptions of the bounds of human rationality and ability to deal with risk and uncertainty.

Ett företag som ska välja mellan olika investeringsalternativ kan använda sig av nettonuvärdesmetoden för att beräkna vilken investering som anses mest lönsam. För att genomföra uträkningen prognostiseras framtida positiva kassaflöden som investeringen förväntas generera. Nettonuvärdesmetoden kan även användas vid bedömningar av infrastrukturinvesteringar men för den offentliga sektorn är de positiva kassaflödena inte lika frekventa i investeringsprocessen. För den offentliga sektorn är det istället befolkningens nytta av en investering som värderas. Nyttan är från början kvalitativ och värderas monetärt med hjälp av kalkylvärden, kalkylprinciper, trafikprognoser och andra verktyg. En monetär värdering av nytta gör att en nettonuvärdesuträkning blir möjlig. För att genomföra omformuleringen används en metod som kallas Cost-Benefit Analysis. Genom metoden identifieras de kvalitativa effekterna av en investering för att de sedan ska kunna kvantifieras. Studiens undersökningsenhet är Trafikverket som utvecklar och underhåller det Svenska transportsystemet. Studien har identifierat vilka värden Trafikverket kvantifierar i sin nettonuvärdesuträkning, vilka faktorer som ligger bakom värderingen och hur kvantifieringen går till. Det är nyttan i form av sparad tid, trafiksäkerhet och konsekvenser för miljö som kvantifieras. Undersökningen har skett genom insamling av teori i form av vetenskapliga artiklar samt rapporter och den empiriska utgångspunkten har varit de rekommendationer och den beräkningsmetodik som Trafikverket använder sig av vid den monetära värderingen. Värderingen av nytta som genereras av en investering är beroende av befolkningens betalningsvilja för ökad nytta. Det är den betalningsviljan som är grunden för de rekommendationer som Trafikverket följer. Resultatet har visat de faktorer som är grunden för värderingen, vilka värden som kvantifieras och hur kvantifieringen är möjlig, för att Trafikverket ska kunna använda nettonuvärdesmetoden för att göra en bedömning angående ett investeringsalternativ. / When a company decides which project to invest in among different alternatives they can use the net present value method. The method uses the expected generation of cash flow from the different investments in order to determine which investment would generate the most profit for the company. The net present value method can also be used by the public sector to decide between different projects. The public sector does not consider the same aspects with regards to cash flows as companies. The public sector calculates future cash flows in terms of benefits and costs for the countries population. The benefits from an investment are qualitative from the start and need to be monetized in order to be used in the net present value calculation. The quantification of the qualitative effects is accomplished though calculation values, calculation principles, traffic forecasts and other applications. To be able to facilitate the transformation the public sector can use a method called Cost-Benefit Analysis. The method makes it possible to identify the qualitative effects of an investment and then translate the effects to quantity values. A case study has been made with the Swedish Transport Administration as investigation unit, which is the organization that develops and maintains the Swedish transportation system. The case study has resulted in an identification of which values the Swedish Transport Administration decides to monetize, which aspects the values depends on and how the monetization is made. It is the benefits of saved travel time, value of a statistical life and environmental effects that are monetized. The theoretical part of the study is composed of scientific journals and reports. The empirical part of the study has been founded in the different recommendations and calculation methods which the Swedish Transport Administration uses to perform the monetization. The valuation of the benefits generated from a project is dependent on the populations’ willingness to pay for it. It is the willingness to pay which is the foundation of the recommendations which the Swedish Transport Administration adhere to. The results have shown the different aspects which are the foundation for the valuation. The results have also shown which values are quantified and how the quantification is possible to enable the Swedish Transport Administration to use the net present value method in order to judge different investment alternatives.

The stockholm county proposed legislation in 2010 on the use of studded tires in the city. The aim of the policy was to reduce the use of studded tires by 50 percent. The research question investigates the authenticity of the policy where it was hypothesized that the net social benefits for the imposition of this charge was less than or equal to zero. Emperical literatures were chosen systematically and with the help of theories on welfare economics, a meta analysis was employed quantifying cost and benefits of all outcomes. The findings shows that the NSB is less than zero meaning that it was a wise decision to reject the proposal.

The first paper examines the value of a statistical life (VSL) for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) victims. We found VSL values to be higher for OHCA victims than for people who die in road traffic accidents and a lower-bound estimate of VSL for OHCA would be in the range of 20 to 30 million Swedish crowns (SEK). The second paper concerns hypothetical bias in contingent valuation (CV) studies. We investigate the link between the determinants and empirical treatment of uncertainty through certainty calibration and find that the higher the confidence of the respondents the more we can trust that stated WTP is correlated to actual WTP. The third paper investigates the performance of two communication aids (a flexible community analogy and an array of dots) in valuing mortality risk reductions for OHCA. The results do not support the prediction of expected utility theory, i.e. that WTP for a mortality risk reduction increases with the amount of risk reduction (weak scope sensitivity), for any of the communication aids. The fourth paper presents a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the effects of dual dispatch defibrillation by ambulance and fire services in the County of Stockholm. The intervention had positive economic effects, yielding a benefit-cost ratio of 36, a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of € 13 000 and the cost per saved life was € 60 000. The fifth paper explores how different response times from OHCA to defibrillation affect patients’ survival rates by using geographic information systems (GIS). The model predicted a baseline survival rate of 3.9% and reducing the ambulance response time by 1 minute increased survival to 4.6%. The sixth paper analyzes demographic determinants of incident experience and risk perception, and the relationship between the two, for eight different risk domains. Males and highly educated respondents perceive their risks lower than what is expected compared to actual incident experience.

Currently several disparate and incomplete approaches are being used to analyse and make decisions on the complex methodology of carbon capture and storage (CCS). A literature review revealed that, as CCS is a new and complex technology, there is no agreed-upon thorough assessment method for high-level CCS decisions. Therefore, a risk model addressing these weaknesses was created for assessing complex CCS decisions using a multi-criteria decision analysis approach (MCDA). The model is aimed at transparently and comprehensively assessing a wide variety of heterogeneous CCS criteria to provide insights into and to aid decision makers in making CCS-specific decisions. The risk model includes a variety of tools to assess heterogeneous CCS criteria from the environmental, social, economic and engineering fields. The model uses decision trees, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with utility curves and decision makers’ weights to assess decisions based on data and situational uncertainties. Elements in the model have been used elsewhere but are combined here in a novel way to address CCS decisions. Three case studies were developed to run the model in scenarios using expert opinion, project-specific data, literature reviews, and engineering reports from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Europe. In collaboration with Alberta Innovates Technology Futures, a pilot study was conducted with CCS experts in Alberta to assess how they would rank the importance of CCS criteria to a project selection decision. The MCDA model was run using experts’ criteria weights to determine how CCS projects were ranked by different experts. The model was well received by the CCS experts who believed that it could be adapted and commercialized to meet many CCS decision problems. The survey revealed a wide range in experts’ understanding of CCS criteria. Experts also placed more emphasis on criteria from within their field of expertise, although economic criteria dominated weights overall. The results highlight the benefit of a model that clearly demonstrates the trade-offs between projects under uncertain conditions. The survey results also revealed how simple decision analyses can be improved by including more transparent methods, interdisciplinary criteria and sensitivity analysis to produce more comprehensive assessments.

Viešojo ir privataus sektorių bendradarbiavimas yra kontraversiškas dalykas. Iš vienos pusės, į rinką pritraukiama naujovių, tobulinamas viešojo sektoriaus darbas, skatinamas verslo ir regionų konkurencingumas, tačiau tokia partnerystė gali turėti ir neigiamų pasekmių, tokių kaip politiniai ir demokratiniai kaštai, iškreipta viešojo administravimo reikšmė visuomenėje ir neracionalūs ar neskaidrūs sprendimai. Todėl svarbu, kad visi partnerystės dalyviai teisingai suprastų projektų tikslus, norus, ar kiekvienas partneris pajėgus investuoti į partnerystę tiek materialinius, tiek ir nematerialinius resursus bei atliktų projektų vertinimą. Magistro baigiamojo darbo tikslas - išanalizuoti viešojo ir privataus sektoriaus partnerystės raidą, privalumus bei trūkumus ir įvertinti partnerystės projekto naudą visoms viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės pusėms. Teorinėje dalyje išanalizuota mokslinė literatūra ir įvertinta viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės raida, privalumai, trūkumai, efektyvumas ir nauda visoms pusėms: viešajam sektoriui, privačiam sektoriui ir visuomenei bei pateikti pasiūlymai kaip spręsti iškilusias problemas. Teoriniu aspektu analizuojama viešojo ir privataus sektorių partnerystės samprata, akcentuojant tokios formos bendradarbiavimo atsiradimo priežastis, išskiriami privalumai ir trūkumai, galimybės ir grėsmės. Pateikiami partnerystės projektų pavyzdžiai, apibendrinti statistiniai duomenis apie projektų raidą, pokyčius ir tendencijas bei pateikiamos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The collaboration between public and private sectors is a controversial object. On one hand, there are innovations that are being attracted to the market, and the work process in the public sector is improved, as well as the competitive ability between the business and regions is motivated, on the other hand such partnership may have negative results like political and democratic costs, distorted authority of the public administration in the society, and unreasonable or ambiguous decisions. Therefore, it is essential, that not only all the parties involved in the partnership would take the aims and intentions of the projects properly, but also each partner is able to invest into the partnership tangible and intangible resources, and could make the estimation of the projects. The aim of the Master's thesis is to analyze the development, as well as the pros and cons of the public - private sectors, and to estimate the advantage of the partnership projects in regard to all the parties of private and public sectors. The theoretical part of final thesis deals with the analyzed scientific literature and the estimated development, pros and cons, efficiency of the partnership with respect of the public and private sectors, as well as the advantage to all the parties including public - private sectors and the society, additionally the potential suggestions and the occurrence of possible problems is given. The conception of public and private sectors is analyzed from the theoretical... [to full text]

Prescriptively, the requirement of fire safety protection systems for distribution substations is not provided in the compliance document for fire safety to the New Zealand Building Code. Therefore, the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) has proposed a list of fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations in a letter, dated 10th July 2002. A review by Nyman [1], has considered the fire safety requirements proposed by the NZFS and discussed the issues with a number of fire engineers over the last three years. Nyman concerned that one of the requirements regarding the four hour fire separation between the distribution substation and the interior spaces of the building may not be necessary when considering the risk exposure to the building occupants in different situations, such as the involvement of the sprinkler systems and the use of transformers with a lower fire hazard. Fire resistance rating (FRR) typically means the time duration for which passive fire protection system, such as fire barriers, fire walls and other fire rated building elements, can maintain its integrity, insulation and stability in a standard fire endurance test. Based on the literature review and discussions with industry experts, it is found that failure of the passive fire protection system in a real fire exposure could potentially occur earlier than the time indicated by the fire resistance rating derived from the standard test depending on the characteristics of the actual fire (heat release rate, fire load density and fire location) and the characteristics of the fire compartment (its geometric, ventilation conditions, opening definition, building services and equipment). Hence, it is known that a higher level of fire safety, such as 4 hour fire rated construction and use of sprinkler system, may significantly improve the fire risk to health of safety of occupants in the building; however, they could never eliminate the risk. This report presents a fire engineering Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on a transformer fire initiating in a distribution substation inside a high-rise residential and commercial mixeduse building. It compares the fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations from the NZFS to other relevant documents worldwide: the regulatory standards in New Zealand, Australia and United States of America, as well as the non-regulatory guidelines from other stakeholders, such as electrical engineering organisation, insurance companies and electricity providers. This report also examines the characteristics of historical data for transformer fires in distribution substations both in New Zealand and United States of America buildings. Reliability of active fire safety protection systems, such as smoke detection systems and sprinkler systems is reviewed in this research. Based on the data analysis results, a fire risk estimate is determined using an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for a total of 14 scenarios with different fire safety designs and transformer types for a distribution substation in a high-rise residential and commercial mixed-use building. In Scenario 1 to 10 scenarios, different combinations of fire safety systems are evaluated with the same type of transformer, Flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer. In Scenario 11 to Scenario 14, two particular fire safety designs are selected as a baseline for the analysis of transformer types. Two types of transformer with a low fire hazard are used to replace the flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer in a distribution substation. These are less flammable liquid (silicone oil) insulated transformers and dry type (dry air) transformers. The entire fire risk estimate is determined using the software package @Risk4.5. The results from the event tree analysis are used in the cost-benefit analysis. The cost-benefit ratios are measured based on the reduced fire risk exposures to the building occupants, with respect to the investment costs of the alternative cases, from its respective base case. The outcomes of the assessment show that the proposed four hour fire separation between the distribution substations and the interior spaces of the building, when no sprinkler systems are provided, is not considered to be the most cost-effective alternative to the life safety of occupants, where the cost-benefit ratio of this scenario is ranked fifth. The most cost-effective alternative is found to be the scenario with 30 minute fire separation and sprinkler system installed. In addition to the findings, replacing a flammable liquid insulated transformer with a less flammable liquid insulated transformer or a dry type transformer is generally considered to be economical alternatives. From the QRA analysis, it is concluded that 3 hour fire separation is considered to be appropriate for distribution substations, containing a flammable liquid insulated transformer and associated equipment, in non-sprinklered buildings. The fire ratings of the separation construction can be reduced to 30 minute FRR if sprinkler system is installed. This conclusion is also in agreement with the requirements of the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA).

Förutom i Stockholm uppvisar den lokala kollektivtrafiken en nedåtgående trend i trafikutvecklingen, trots en årlig subvention om 10 miljarder kronor. Drift av lokal kollektivtrafik i mindre och medelstora städer baserat på samhällsekonomiska kriterier skulle bl a medföra en prispolitik som kräver en subvention om drygt 50%. Att detta ungefär motsvarar rådande subventioneringsgrad är dock inte ett tecken på att kollektivtrafiken bedrivs på samhällsekonomisk grundval, eftersom det visar sig att prisstrukturen är grovt suboptimal. Vad gäller investeringspolitik framgår det dessutom av en enkätundersökning att trafikhuvudmännen inte använder samhällsekonomisk kalkyl (CBA) vid planering och drift av lokal kollektivtrafik, så syftet med avhandlingen är att visa på de möjligheter till förbättringar av den lokala kollektivtrafiken som skulle uppstå om den bedrevs på samhällsekonomisk grundval. Operationaliseringen av teorin kräver först att några grundfrågor för en tillämpning av allmän välfärdsekonomisk teori på bedrivande av lokal kollektivtrafik benas upp. Det är väsentligt att göra en åtskillnad av utbudet av kollektiva transporttjänster mellan ett grundläggande utbud som är att betrakta som ”merit goods” och övrigt utbud där nyttan på normalt sätt mäts genom konsumenternas betalningsvilja. I en omfattande fallstudie av den lokala kollektivtrafiken i Linköping exemplifieras vad effekten blir, dels av vissa utbudsförändringar, som har sållats fram i strävan mot systemoptimum, dels av ändamålsenlig efterfrågestyrning, och med CBA beräknas vad nettoresultatet kan tänkas bli. Om förbättringar som ger lika stor nettonytta som i Linköping kan göras hos flertalet andra trafikhuvudmän med en samhällsekonomisk ansats, skulle den totala nettonyttan aggregerad över hela Sverige vara betydligt större än vad vissa av de omskrivna jätteprojekten inom kollektivtrafiksektorn kan prestera. / Except in Stockholm, local public transport shows a declining trend in spite of an annual total subsidy from the County councils of 10 billion SEK. This is fair enough. Running local bus services in small and medium sized towns in accordance with welfare economic criteria implies among other things a pricing policy which requires subsidization just above 50%, which happens to be the same as the present degree of tax-financing. However, this is just a coincidence, and not a mark of optimality, because it is found that the structure of fares is clearly suboptimal. As regards investment policy it is furthermore confirmed by a questionnaire survey that neither the principals (the County councils) nor their agents (bus companies) use cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for the design of local public transport systems, so the purpose of the thesis is to demonstrate the potential improvements of public transport in small and medium sized towns run on the basis of welfare economics. The operationalization of the welfare economic foundations requires some theoretical reorientation in the particular case of local public transport. A fundamental division of the supply is made between the “merit goods” part of total supply and the “normal goods” part, where benefit is measured by the individual willingness-to-pay. In a case study of the bus transport system of Linköping a number of generally applicable minor improvements are found by the welfare economic approach, which aggregated to the national level would imply a total net benefit which more spectacular projects in the public transport sector rarely can present.