Submitted by Laura Nelson (nelson.lkn@gmail.com) on 2015-04-13T21:22:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-04-14T12:04:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-14T12:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges. / A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de 'big data' de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Having the author been involved in banking and finance for almost 25 years, this thesis intends to reflect on the role of banks with emphasis on cross border lending and credit rating, their effectiveness and the impacts of cultural differences. Perhaps this would not differ substantially from a researcher or a scholar, yet the exploratory approach taken in this research will be somewhat different as it deliberately seeks to answer a number of questions relevant to practitioners in today’s banking. In trying to achieve this goal, this thesis hopefully may find its way to international bankers wondering about the perspectives of their business in general and their profession in specific. It even may perhaps improve the understanding of their clients. The Basel committee which published the new Basel II framework on bank regulation and supervision was the result of long and careful discussions, wide consultations and comprehensive impact studies. Whereas Basel II covers the entire risk profile and supervision of financial institutions, this research is limited to the cross border lending by banks to companies and provides the views from both practicing international bankers and their customers on their 3 expectations regarding Basel II, credit rating and the relevance of context and culture differences. Bankers all over the world are being trained on how to read balance sheets, yet less attention is being paid as to by whom they are being created and how precisely these balance sheets came into existence, other than the accountancy standards applied. Bankers furthermore seem to agree on the fact that credit risks in large part are related to the management competencies, effective corporate governance and integrity of management and organization. The argument could be made that the assessment of management capabilities, governance and integrity may be hindered in those cases where the culture is little understood. In a three days conferences titled; “The Future of Relationship Banking”, 80 senior executives from international banks and large companies were gathered in Punta del Este, Uruguay and were asked to speak about these aspects. A transcript of the conference is provided as annex to this thesis (Annex 1) and serves to triangulate the findings of the research. Main findings of three management papers were presented by the researcher during the conference. A survey was performed during the conference and in addition, through an online survey, in total over 100 practitioners in the field participated in the survey. Results show a variation of conclusions, but very especially seem to confirm the view, contrary to the approach taken in Basel II, that cultural differences and context are felt to be highly relevant in cross border lending.

[pt] A situação no Brasil no cenário internacional, principalmente no que tange à entrada de investimentos com fim de desenvolvimento e geração de capital, vem sendo abalada na última década por diversos fatores. A situação global, com as incertezas decorrentes da Pandemia de COVID-19 e a Guerra na Ucrânia é instável, com alta de juros, inflação e uma degradação da situação econômica das pessoas em escala global. A atração de investimentos é importante, historicamente, para o aumento de entrada de capital, empresas, industrialização e consequentemente, empregos, geração de renda e circulação de capital dentro do mercado interno. O Brasil há anos está em um processo de desindustrialização, que traz impactos econômicos significantes. O presente trabalho, portanto, tem como objetivo analisar esse processo de desindustrialização, a relação de Investimentos Diretos Estrangeiros, Risco Brasil e a relação entre estes índices, assim como uma tentativa de proposição de ideias para estimular o crescimento nacional. / [en] The situation in Brazil on the international scene, especially regarding the entry of investments for the purpose of development and capital generation, has been impacted over the years by several factors. The global scenery, with the uncertainties arising from the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine, is unstable, with high interest rates, inflation, and a degradation of the economic situation of people on a global scale. The attraction of investments is desirable, historically, for the increase of capital inflow, companies, industrialization and consequently jobs, income generation and capital circulation within the internal market. Brazil has been in a process of deindustrialization for years, which brings significant economic impacts. The present work, therefore, aims to analyze this process of deindustrialization, the relation of Foreign Direct Investments, Brazil Risk, and the relation between these indexes, as well as an attempt to propose ideas to stimulate national growth.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the vulnerability of four key emerging markets to crises originating in Asia in 1997; Russia in 1998; Brazil in 1999 and Argentina in 2001. The emerging markets examined, Argentina, Malaysia, Poland and South Africa have been chosen to represent different geographic continents. Stock market data is used to measure for changes in unconditional correlation coefficients during and after the crisis periods. This is to establish whether the volatility shocks generated by the crises are what would reasonably be expected. Results suggest that there is evidence of contagion during the Asian crisis but there is little support of significant cross-market correlations transmitted during the Russian, Brazilian or Argentinean crises. Granger Causality tests are calculated to identify the existence of a relationship between stock market returns of countries in crisis and each of the four emerging markets. There is no evidence of causality emanating from the Thai stock market during the Asian crisis or from the Argentinean index during the Argentinean.crisis. Findings show that there is Granger causality from the Russian index during the Russian crisis to the Argentinean stock market but there was no impact on the markets in Malaysia, Poland or South Africa. Interestingly, there is no evidence that the Polish stock market returns were affected by the Russian crisis, the Argentinean returns by the Brazilian crisis or the Malaysian market by the Asian crisis. The paper further examines whether there is a relationship between stock market returns and country credit ratings and if credit risk can explain stock market returns. Significantly for active investment management, past values of country credit ratings can help predict stock market returns in Argentina, Malaysia and South Africa. Therefore, country credit risk contains information about expected stock market returns and potential investors would benefit by devising an asset allocation strategy that incorporates the explanatory powers of credit risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie verslag ondersoek die kwesbaarheid van vier sleutelontwikkelende markte ten opsigte van krisisse wat onstaan het in Asië in 1997; Rusland in 1998; Brasilië in 1999 en in Argentinië in 2001. Die Argentynse, Maleisiese, Poolse en Suid Afrikaanse markte is gekies om verskillende geografiese kontinente te verteenwoordig. Effektebeurs data is gebruik om die verandering in onkondisionele korrelasie koeffisiente gedurende en na die krisis tydperk te meet. Dit is gedoen om vas te stel of die wisselvalligheid-skokke wat veroorsaak is deur die krisis ooreenstem met wat wesenlik verwag sal word. Resultate dui daarop dat daar getuienis is van besmetting ("contagion") gedurende die Asiatiese krisis, maar dat daar min ondersteuning gebied word vir die oordraging van beduidende kruis-mark korrelasie gedurende die Russiese, Brasiliaanse of Argentynse krisisse. Granger "causality" toetse is uitgevoer om die bestaan van 'n verwantskap tussen die effektemark opbrengste van die lande in krisis en elkeen van die vier opkomende markte te identifiseer. Daar is geen bewyse van enige veroorsakende verband voortgebring vanuit die Thai effektebeurs gedurende die Asiatiese krisis, of van die Argentynse indeks gedurende die Argentynse krisis nie. Die bevindinge toon dat daar Granger veroorsaking is vanaf die Russiese indeks na die Argentynse effektebeurs gedurende die Russiese krisis, maar dat daar geen impak was op die markte in Maleisië, Pole of Suid Afrika nie. Dit is interessant dat daar geen bewyse is dat die Poolse effektebeurs opbrengste beïnvloed is deur die Russiese krisis, die Argentynse opbrengste deur die Braziliaanse krisis, of die Maleisiese mark deur die Asiatiese krisis nie. Die verslag ondersoek verder of daar 'n verwantskap bestaan tussen effektebeurs opbrengste en die land se kredietgraderings asook of krediet-risiko effektebeurs opbrengste kan verduidelik. Betekenisvol vir aktiewe beleggingsbestuur is dat die historiese kredietgraderings kan help met die vooruitskatting van effektebeurs opbrengste in Argentinië, Maleisië en Suid Afrika. Dus bevat land kredietgraderings informasie rakende verwagte effektebeurs opbrengste. Potensiële beleggers sal dus baat vind in die ontwikkeling van 'n bate-allokasie strategie wat die verduidelikende kragte van krediet risiko inkorporeer.

Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition. In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability. Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate. A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability. It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign business wishes to operate profitably. What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie. 'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange, sover moontlik beperk word. Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer. 'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede. Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het. Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.

Este trabalho faz uma reconstituição histórica da política monetária praticada no Brasil desde a implementação do Plano Real, revisa uma determinada discussão teórica sobre o tema da taxa de juros brasileira e suas possíveis relações perversas com outras variáveis macroeconômicas, e apresenta um modelo para tentar captar esses possíveis efeitos perversos da política monetária, tais como descritos na maior parte dos trabalhos apontados na discussão teórica. No último decênio, a taxa de juros nominal doméstica sempre esteve acima dos 15% ao ano, sendo que em grande parte do período analisado, a taxa de juros real ficou acima deste patamar. Com efeito, essa condução da política monetária trouxe à tona determinados efeitos indesejados, tais como a contaminação do risco-País pela taxa de juros doméstica. Entre os principais resultados obtidos seguindo uma análise com base num modelo VAR em que se avaliam choques nas variáveis por meio de funções impulso-resposta generalizadas (GIR), encontra-se que o risco soberano brasileiro, no período pós-desvalorização cambial, tem como determinantes os fundamentos macroeconômicos, em particular variáveis fiscais, como a dívida líquida do setor público consolidado como proporção do PIB, e a participação da dívida externa como proporção da dívida total. Outro determinante do risco percebido de moratória é a taxa de juros nominal interna. Quanto mais elevada a taxa de juros, mais elevado o risco. Em terceiro lugar, um aumento da taxa de juros pode levar a uma desvalorização cambial, desde que as expectativas dos agentes sejam afetadas pelo aumento dos riscos provocados pela elevação dos juros. / This dissertation revisits the historical background of the monetary policy regime adopted in Brazil in the period after the implementation of the Real stabilization plan, addresses to a determined theoretical framework about the domestic interest rates and its possible undesired relations with other macroeconomic variables, and presents a model to capture these possible relations of monetary policy. In the last decade, domestic nominal interest rate have always been above 15% p.a., and in a significant period of time the real interest rate stood above this level. Therefore, the conduct of monetary policy has brought up some undesired effects, such as the contagion of the Country-Risk to the domestic interest rate. Amongst the main results obtained in this paper, using a VAR model in a Generalized Impulse Response (GIR) framework for the period after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime, stands out that the sovereign risk of Brazil is determined by macroeconomic fundaments, especially fiscal variables such as the Net Debt of the Public Sector and the share of foreign debt in the total debt. Another significant determinant of the perceived risk of default is the domestic interest rate. The higher the domestic nominal interest rate, the higher the risk. Lastly, a domestic interest rate increase may take to exchange rate depreciation if expectations are affected by the augmented risk derived from the higher domestic interest rate.

Este trabalho faz uma reconstituição histórica da política monetária praticada no Brasil desde a implementação do Plano Real, revisa uma determinada discussão teórica sobre o tema da taxa de juros brasileira e suas possíveis relações perversas com outras variáveis macroeconômicas, e apresenta um modelo para tentar captar esses possíveis efeitos perversos da política monetária, tais como descritos na maior parte dos trabalhos apontados na discussão teórica. No último decênio, a taxa de juros nominal doméstica sempre esteve acima dos 15% ao ano, sendo que em grande parte do período analisado, a taxa de juros real ficou acima deste patamar. Com efeito, essa condução da política monetária trouxe à tona determinados efeitos indesejados, tais como a contaminação do risco-País pela taxa de juros doméstica. Entre os principais resultados obtidos seguindo uma análise com base num modelo VAR em que se avaliam choques nas variáveis por meio de funções impulso-resposta generalizadas (GIR), encontra-se que o risco soberano brasileiro, no período pós-desvalorização cambial, tem como determinantes os fundamentos macroeconômicos, em particular variáveis fiscais, como a dívida líquida do setor público consolidado como proporção do PIB, e a participação da dívida externa como proporção da dívida total. Outro determinante do risco percebido de moratória é a taxa de juros nominal interna. Quanto mais elevada a taxa de juros, mais elevado o risco. Em terceiro lugar, um aumento da taxa de juros pode levar a uma desvalorização cambial, desde que as expectativas dos agentes sejam afetadas pelo aumento dos riscos provocados pela elevação dos juros. / This dissertation revisits the historical background of the monetary policy regime adopted in Brazil in the period after the implementation of the Real stabilization plan, addresses to a determined theoretical framework about the domestic interest rates and its possible undesired relations with other macroeconomic variables, and presents a model to capture these possible relations of monetary policy. In the last decade, domestic nominal interest rate have always been above 15% p.a., and in a significant period of time the real interest rate stood above this level. Therefore, the conduct of monetary policy has brought up some undesired effects, such as the contagion of the Country-Risk to the domestic interest rate. Amongst the main results obtained in this paper, using a VAR model in a Generalized Impulse Response (GIR) framework for the period after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime, stands out that the sovereign risk of Brazil is determined by macroeconomic fundaments, especially fiscal variables such as the Net Debt of the Public Sector and the share of foreign debt in the total debt. Another significant determinant of the perceived risk of default is the domestic interest rate. The higher the domestic nominal interest rate, the higher the risk. Lastly, a domestic interest rate increase may take to exchange rate depreciation if expectations are affected by the augmented risk derived from the higher domestic interest rate.

[pt] Este trabalho objetiva, por meio da utilização de um modelo de paridade coberta de juros ajustada aos riscos país e demais riscos (sobretudo domésticos), verificar, estatisticamente, quais são os determinantes da taxa de juros brasileira para títulos públicos pré-fixados de longo prazo - no caso, as Notas do Tesouro Nacional Série F (NTN-Fs) de prazo aproximado de 10 anos, com vencimento em 2017. A variável dependente foi definida como a taxa de retorno das respectivas NTN-Fs, ao passo que as variáveis independentes ou explicativas foram a taxa livre de risco dos Treasuries norte-americanos de 10 anos, o prêmio de risco Brasil e o risco cambial. Os demais riscos (especialmente domésticos), por se tratarem do diferencial entre as NTN-Fs e as outras variáveis, encontram-se dentro do componente de termo do erro. Tendo em vista que as variáveis independentes possuem fortes relações de multicolinearidade - o que trouxe resultados visados para o coeficiente de determinação e aqueles individuais -, optou-se por rodar um modelo VAR e, a partir do mesmo, extrair os graus de endogeneidade de cada variável. Assim, foi possível observar o grau de importância e causalidade das variáveis individualmente e se o modelo estava corretamente especificado - ou seja, se a taxa de juros das NTN-Fs de longo prazo foi de fato explicada pelas demais variáveis. As principais ferramentas do modelo VAR - decomposição de variância e funções impulso-resposta - permitiram tirar importantes conclusões acerca dos impactos defasados de variações ou choques ocorridos nas variáveis independentes sobre a taxa de juros das NTN-Fs analisadas. Os resultados comprovaram que a taxa de juros das NTN-Fs é a variável mais endógena do modelo e, portanto, a dependente, além disso, mostrou que o risco cambial é a variável menos endógena, indicando sua importância cada vez menor na formação das taxas de juros de longo prazo no Brasil. A conclusão mais relevante, contudo, foi a evidência de que existe uma correlação negativa entre a taxa de juros livre de risco e a taxa dos títulos de longo prazo brasileiros, contrariando, pelo menos em 2007, a Teoria das Carteiras, que prevê uma relação positiva entre a taxa livre de risco e o retorno de um ativo. / [en] This study aims to verify statistically, through the utilization of an interest rate covered parity model adjusted to the country-risk and other risks (domestic, mainly), what are the determinants of Brazilian interest rates for long-term public fixed income securities - in this case, the so-called National Treasury Notes - Series F (NTN-Fs) with maturity in approximately 10 years, more precisely, in 2017. The dependent variable was defined as being the yield- to-maturity of the respective NTN-Fs, whereas the independent or explanatory variables were the risk-free rates of the US 10-year Treasuries, the Brazilian country-risk and the exchange rate risk. The other risks (especially domestic ones), as well as they reflect the differential between the NTN-Fs and the other variables, are one of the error term components. Given that the independent variables have strong multicollinearity - which brings biased results to the determination and individual coefficients -, we opted for using a VAR model and, based on it, obtain the endogenous degrees of each variable. Then, it was possible to observe the causality and importance level of the variables individually and if the model was correctly specified - that is, if the long-term NTN-Fs interest rates were in fact explained by the other variables. The main VAR model tools - which are the variance decomposition and the impulse-response functions - allowed us to make important conclusions about the delayed impacts of variations or shocks occurred in the independent variables over the analyzed NTN- Fs interest rates. The results proved that NTN-Fs interest rate is the most endogenous variable of the model and, therefore, the dependent one. The results also showed that the exchange rate risk is the less endogenous variable, suggesting it has a decreasing importance for the long-run interest rate building in Brazil. However, the most important conclusion was the evidence that there is a negative correlation between the risk-free rate and Brazilian long-run securities interest rates, opposing, at least in 2007, the Portfolio Theory, which foresees a positive relationship between the risk-free irate and the return of an asset.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-29T14:17:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Elisabete Borgianni.pdf: 11486390 bytes, checksum: ac4c2bf55cc713ed8b7c9f5c5787741c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-03 / This paper examines, based on the principles of the Marxist theory, the Country-Risk rating as well as the risk ratings developed by specialized agencies. We show how mystified the social relations which characterize the monopolistic stage of capital are presented. The main finding is that, although the Brazilian government refers to investment grade as an achievement of the society as a whole, such ratings just consider the needs for capital reproduction, mainly in its financial and rentist form, never focusing on the true welfare of the working class. We show that, instead, for a country to reach the best country risk ratings, it needs to follow a macroeconomic agenda that implies social rights suppression through budgetary restraints of social policies. We also maintain that these mystification processes, typical of capitalist production, may be uncovered through critical analysis and a political attitude to oppose this form of social organization based on private property of the main means of production. We also examine the critical-analytical and political-organizational potential the Brazilian Social Work has developed in the last years, and defend the idea that this potential enables it to play a stronger and more meaningful role in the debate about the course of the economical and social policy of the country. Such role may be stimulated by creating a system to monitor violation of human rights - to be implemented by or in the Federal and Regional Social Work Boards - , to counteract ratings that only measure risks to capital, such as Country-Risk / A presente Tese examina, nos marcos da tradição marxista, o índice Risco-País, bem como as classificações de risco que são elaboradas por agências especializadas. Verifica-se que essas classificações expressam a forma mistificada como as relações sociais próprias do estágio monopolista do capital dão-se a conhecer. A constatação central é a de que, embora o governo brasileiro cite o grau de investimento como uma conquista de toda a sociedade, tais classificações levam em conta tão somente as necessidades de reprodução do capital, notadamente em sua forma financeirizada e rentista, não tendo como foco, em nenhum momento, o real bem-estar da população trabalhadora. Demonstra- se aqui que, pelo contrário, para que um país atinja os melhores graus de classificação de risco do capital é preciso cumprir uma agenda macroeconômica que suponha a supressão de direitos sociais via constrangimentos orçamentários das políticas sociais. Defende-se ainda que esses processos de mistificação, próprios do modo de produção capitalista, podem ser desvelados através de uma análise crítica e de uma postura política que se contrapõem a essa forma de organização societária cuja base é a propriedade privada dos meios fundamentais de produção. Examina-se aqui também o potencial crítico-analítico e político-organizativo que o Serviço Social brasileiro desenvolveu nos últimos anos, propugnando-se que esse potencial o habilita para desempenhar um protagonismo mais forte e mais significativo no debate sobre os rumos da política econômica e social do País. Tal atuação pode ser estimulada com a criação de um sistema de monitoramento de violação de direitos, a ser implementado junto aos Conselhos Regionais e Conselho Federal de Serviço Social, que permita a polarização com os índices que só medem os riscos do capital, a exemplo do Risco-País

Every business involves risk, but due to its nature, construction business involves more risk than many other industries. Therefore, risk assessment is indispensable to the success of construction companies in terms of, preventing dramatic financial losses. When the decision process for expanding the operations in the international construction market is concerned, it becomes more important for companies to analyze the risk of the target country. For this reason, construction firms benefit from many different risk assessment methods. Contractors prevalent practice of risk assessment is identifying related risks and making an evaluation relying on their personal judgments (without substantial explicit support), but none of the applied methods is construction specific. To overcome this, a construction specific country Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is prepared. While preparing this construction specific RBS, not only macro level country risks but also market risks for construction are considered in order to reflect the real risks of performing construction business in foreign countries. Consequently, a tentative country RBS specific for construction industry is constructed and its reliability is tested by interviews carried out with six professionals from four Turkish construction companies operating in international markets. After finalization of the RBS, utilization method of practical aspects of RBS is questioned by interviewing the experts. Finally, a case study is conducted to propose a company-specific system for iv the implementation of RBS. The case study findings demonstrate the applicability of RBS and its potential as a systematic country risk assessment tool.