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Gegenstand dieser Dissertation ist die Rolle fiskalischen Stresses auf die Größe des Staatsausgabenmultiplikators. Hierbei werden zuerst die Folgen von empirisch identifizierten Staatsausgabenschocks in Italien untersucht. Dies geschieht sowohl in einem Zustand mit hohen Risikospreads auf Staatsanleihen, als auch in einem Zustand mit niedrigen Risikospreads. Das Resultat ist, dass kumulative Multiplikatoren kleiner sind, wenn das Ausfallrisiko von Staatsanleihen hoch ist. Zweitens erklärt die Dissertation dieses empirische Resultat im Rahmen eines DSGE Models. Im Model verdrängt ein Anstieg der Staatsausgaben private Investitionen. Der Verdrängungseffekt wird durch fragile Banken und die Rolle aggregierten Risikos ausreichend verstärkt, so dass fiskalischer Stress zu sehr kleinen oder sogar negativen Multiplikatoren führen kann. Zuletzt untersuche ich die Rolle fiskalischen Stresses auf den Staatsausgabenmultiplikator unter der Nebenbedingung, dass die nominale Zinsuntergrenze bei null bindet. In diesem Szenario kann sich der Effekt fiskalischen Stresses ins Gegenteil verkehren und der Staatsausgabenmultiplikator groß werden. / This thesis examines the role of fiscal stress on the size of the government spending multiplier. First, it explores the dynamic consequences of empirically identified government spending shocks in Italy in a regime with high sovereign bond yield spreads and a regime with low spreads. It finds that cumulative multipliers are lower when sovereign risk spreads are high. Secondly, the thesis explains the empirical result of small government spending multipliers in times of high levels of fiscal stress in the context of a DSGE Model. In this model, an increase in government spending crowds out private investment. A fragile banking sector and aggregate risk amplify the crowding out of investment sufficiently to imply small multipliers in the presence of fiscal stress. Finally, I analyze the role of fiscal stress on the multiplier, when the economy is at the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates and find that in this scenario, the effect of fiscal stress is reversed and the government spending multiplier is large.

Submitted by Marilia Taveira (marilia.taveira@gmail.com) on 2012-11-06T15:02:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Marilia_Final_PosDefesa.pdf: 823265 bytes, checksum: 5a33364964aaba850db6b89019c42d01 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2012-11-06T15:06:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Marilia_Final_PosDefesa.pdf: 823265 bytes, checksum: 5a33364964aaba850db6b89019c42d01 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-04T13:08:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Marilia_Final_PosDefesa.pdf: 823265 bytes, checksum: 5a33364964aaba850db6b89019c42d01 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-31 / Este estudo tem dois objetivos principais. O primeiro, discutir o propósito da popularização das políticas macroprudenciais no pós-crise – que surgiram como uma das soluções para a complexa relação entre estabilidade de preços e estabilidade financeira – suas vantagens em relação à abordagem anteriormente predominante – as políticas microprudenciais – e formas de interação com a tradicional política monetária. O segundo grande objetivo reproduzir um modelo da geração novo-keynesiana que contempla um sistema bancário e características que permitem replicar a condução de uma política macroprudencial (colaterais, depósitos compulsórios, requerimentos mínimos de capital) a fim de analisar a resposta de variáveis macroeconômicas a mudanças nestes parâmetros. / This study has two main goals. The first one is to discuss the popularization of macroprudential policies in the after crisis, as a solution for the complex linkage between financial stability and price stability, its benefits compared to the previous approach – the microprudential regulation – and the interaction between macroprudential and conventional monetary policies. The second main goal is to simulate a DSGE model with a banking system and subject to reserve requirements and collateral requirements that allow one to assess the effects of macroprudential tools utilization over macroeconomic variables.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第24164号 / 経博第658号 / 新制||経||302(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 西山 慎一, 准教授 高橋 修平, 准教授 安井 大真 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DFAM

Asset pricing implications of a DSGE model with recursive preferences and nominal rigidities. I study jointly macroeconomic dynamics and asset prices implied by a production economy featuring nominal price rigidities and Epstein-Zin (1989) preferences. Using a reasonable calibration, the macroeconomic DSGE model is consistent with a number of stylized facts observed in financial markets like the equity premium, a negative real term spread, a positive nominal term spread and the predictability of stock returns, without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. The interest rate smoothing in the monetary policy rule helps generate a low risk-free rate volatility which has been difficult to achieve for standard real business cycle models where monetary policy is neutral. In an application, I show that the model provides a framework for analyzing monetary policy interventions and the associated effects on asset prices and the real economy. Macroeconomic news and the stock market: Evidence from the eurozone. This paper is an empirical study of excess return behavior in the stock market in the euro area around days when important macroeconomic news about inflation, unemployment or interest rates are scheduled for announcement. I identify state dependence such that equity risk premia on announcement days are significantly higher when the interests rates are in the vicinity of the zero lower bound. Moreover, I provide evidence that for the whole sample period, the average excess returns in the eurozone are only higher on days when FOMC announcements are scheduled for release. However, this result vanishes in a low interest rate regime. Finally, I document that the European stock market does not command a premium for scheduled announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB). The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market. We examine the impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on German excess stock returns and the possible reasons for such a response. First, we conduct an event study to asses the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on stock returns. Second, within the VAR framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose excess stock returns into news regarding expected excess returns, future dividends and future real interest rates. We measure conventional monetary policy shocks using futures markets data. Our main findings are that the overall variation in German excess stock returns mainly reflects revisions in expectations about dividends and that the stock market response to monetary policy shocks is dependent on the prevailing interest rate regime. In periods of negative real interest rates, a surprise monetary tightening leads to a decrease in excess stock returns. The channels behind this response are news about higher expected excess returns and lower future dividends.

Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur le défaut souverain en offrant une nouvelle approche d'analyse, réconciliant les approches statistiques et structurelles. Avec comme fil rouge le lien entre crises financières, accumulation de dette et défaut souverain, ce travail répond à trois questions principales.En premier lieu, quand les pays font-ils défaut ? En posant un simple regard sur les principales variables macroéconomiques et les composantes cycliques des défauts souverains, je montre que le défaut se produit quand le pays subit un retournement brutal de croissance, ajouté à un large choc discontinu sur son ratio de dette sur PIB, apporté en majorité par une crise de change ou une crise bancaire.En second lieu, en quoi le risque souverain au sein d'une zone monétaire (par exemple la zone euro) diffère de celui d'une petite économie ouverte en change flexible, majoritairement décrit dans la littérature ? Je construis un modèle DSGE néo-keynésien dans lequel j'introduis du risque souverain ; je mets l'accent sur le rôle clé des comportements de consommation, à la fois dans la préférence pour l'union monétaire et dans la décision de défaut. Je regarde également l'efficacité de certaines politiques fiscales sur la réduction du risque souverain dans une zone monétaire.Enfin, les instruments de politique monétaire ont-ils été efficaces pendant la crise pour réduire les taux souverains ? J'évalue la transmission de la politique monétaire de la BCE, à la fois conventionnelle et non-conventionnelle, aux taux et aux volumes d'émissions de titres souverains pour les quatre plus importantes économies européennes. Je montre que seule la transmission du taux directeur vers les taux souverains a été effective ; les instruments non-conventionnels ont eu des résultats contrastés et essentiellement sur les taux d'intérêt. / This thesis offers a new approach to sovereign default analysis, by tackling both statistical and the structural approaches to sovereign default. Starting from the link between financial crises, debt accumulation and sovereign default, it answers three main questions.First, when do countries default? Taking a simple look at macroeconomic variables and business cycles around default, I show that economic defaults occur when the country experiences a switch from a boom to a bust, combined with a large discontinuous shock on its debt-to-GDP ratio, brought mainly by a currency or a banking crisis.Second, how sovereign risk in a monetary union (e.g. the Eurozone) differs from sovereign default risk in a small open economy usually described in default literature? Constructing a New-Keynesian DSGE model with sovereign default risk, I exhibit the key role of habit persistence in the preference for a monetary union and the default decision. I am also able to test the efficiency of various policy tools on sovereign risk.Third, have monetary policy tools been efficient to reduce sovereign spreads in the Eurozone? I assess the transmission of ECB monetary policies, conventional and unconventional, to both interest rates and bond issuance for the four largest economies of the Euro area. The main result is that only the pass-through from the ECB rate to interest rates has been effective. Unconventional policies have had uneven effects and primarily on interest rates.

在次級房貸風暴之後，各國赤字大幅增加。如希臘與愛爾蘭，其主權債務違約風險皆大幅升高。面對這樣的困境，政府該如何實施財政政策，以防止主權債務危機的發生?本篇文章在DSGE模型之下，以Uribe(2006)的設定為基礎架構，額外增加了產出方程式以使國家產出能由模型內生決定。並加入了政府支出與產出之間的關係式，以討論在面對正的景氣衝擊與負的景氣衝擊時，政府使用正向景氣循環政策和負向景氣循環政策對於政府倒債率的影響。最後發現當政府使用負向景氣循環政策和較弱的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有反向的關係。而當政府使用較強的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有正向的關係。從此結果，我們推論在後金融海嘯時期，希臘與愛爾蘭等國家，應使用較強的順景氣循環政策以降低其主權債務危機的發生機率。 / After the subprime crisis, many government deficits rose sharply, especially Greece and Ireland. Their default rate rose greatly than before. Under this difficult situation, what kind of fiscal policy should the government enforces to prevent it from bankruptcy? We follow the model in Uribe (2006) as our framework but adding the production function and the government expenditure function to analyze the effects of different fiscal policies on the government default rate. The results tell us that when the government uses countercyclical fiscal policy and weak procyclical fiscal policy, the change of the default rate is opposite to the technical shock. On the contrary, when the government uses strong procyclical fiscal policy, the default rate is positive relation with the technical shock. This implies that governments, such as Greece and Ireland, should use strong procyclical fiscal policy to reduce their sovereign risk under the recession.

La thèse explore la transmission des variations du taux de change aux prix d’importation, un phénomène que l’on appelle « pass-through » du taux de change. Ce dernier a été et sera au centre des débats économiques, plus particulièrement en ce qui concerne la politique monétaire, car elle conditionne la propagation des différents chocs au niveau international. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons des données individuelles sur les firmes importatrices françaises qui nous ont été fournies à titre confidentiel par l’Institut National de la statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE) ainsi que de nouveaux indices de prix à l’importation, et non des indices de valeur unitaire, pour plusieurs pays de la zone Euro. A travers différentes approches, à la fois empirique et théorique, nous avançons quelques faits stylisés concernant les prix à l’importation et trouvons que le pass-through du taux de change est incomplet à court terme et complet à long terme. La transmission incomplète à court terme est surtout liée à l’existence du phénomène de rigidité nominale. De plus, nous montrons l’important rôle que joue la monnaie de facturation dans l’étendue du pass-through. En termes de politique monétaire, et à travers un modèle DSGE multi-pays, nous avançons que la rigidité nominale implique que l’impact d’une variation du taux de change sur la variation du prix à l’importation est faible et persistent. Combiné avec l’existence d’un biais de consommation de biens domestiques, l’impact sur la variation du prix à la consommation est fortement réduit, permettant ainsi aux autorités monétaires de poursuivre une politique de stabilisation de l’inflation avec peu d’action. D’autant plus que la stabilisation de l’écart à la loi du prix unique ne peut se faire qu’au détriment de l’écart de production. / The thesis explores the transmission of exchange rate movements into import prices, the phenomenon known as “exchange rate pass-through”. This phenomenon is at the heart of open macroeconomics. For policy makers, it is an important issue when making appropriate decisions in terms of economic policy (in particular monetary policy and exchange rate regime). Analysis of the exchange rate pass-through is conducted using unpublished micro-data of import prices made available to us by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic studies (INSEE) and new database of actual import price data, and not unit value indices, for several Euro-area countries. Using different both empirical and theoretical approaches, we provide some new stylized facts on import prices and show evidence in favor of incomplete pass-through in the short run but complete at the long run. Mainly, we argue that incomplete pass-through is the result of nominal import price rigidity. Moreover, we show the important role of the currency invoicing strategy of firms in determining the extent of exchange rate pass-through. In terms of monetary policy, we argue using a multi-country DSGE model, that nominal rigidity induces a persistent but lower impact of the exchange rate changes on import price inflation, which combined with the home consumption bias imply that the monetary authority could pursue a stable inflation target with less action. This is reinforced by the trade-off between output and law of one price gap stabilization generated by the new independent channel of monetary policy arising from incomplete ERPT assumption.

Submitted by Guido Couto Penido Guimarães (guido.guimaraes@fgvmail.br) on 2015-05-15T19:21:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 20150516035825408.pdf: 2427180 bytes, checksum: 7d04b8fe0a5b09cdefb5e1395b3e7dbd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2015-05-20T14:02:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 20150516035825408.pdf: 2427180 bytes, checksum: 7d04b8fe0a5b09cdefb5e1395b3e7dbd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-06-12T20:07:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 20150516035825408.pdf: 2427180 bytes, checksum: 7d04b8fe0a5b09cdefb5e1395b3e7dbd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-12T20:07:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 20150516035825408.pdf: 2427180 bytes, checksum: 7d04b8fe0a5b09cdefb5e1395b3e7dbd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-13 / In this paper we investiga te the impact of initial wealth anel impatience heterogeneities, as wcll as differential access to financia! markets on povcrty anel inequality, anel cvaluate some mechanisms that could be used to alleviate situations in which these two issues are alarming. To address our qucstion we develop a dynamic stochastic general cquilibrium modo! of educational anel savings choicc with heterogeneous agents, where individuais differ in their initial wealth anel in their discount factor. We find that, in the long run, more patient households tend to be wealthier anel more educated. However, our baseline model is not able to give as much skewness to our income distribution as it is rcquircd. We then propose a novel returns structure based on empírica! observation of heterogeneous returns to different portfolios. This modification solves our previous problem, evidencing the importance of the changes made in explaining the existing levels of inequality. Finally, we introducc two kinds of cash transfers programs- one in which receiving thc benefit is conditional on educating the household's youngster (CCTS) anel one frec of conditionalities (CTS) - in order to evaluate the impact of these programs on the variables of concern1 Wc fine! that both policies have similar qualitativo rcsults. Quantitatively, howcvcr, the CCTS outperforms its unconclitional version in all fielcls analyzecl, revealing itself to be a preferable policy.

Submitted by Guilherme Kater (guikater@hotmail.com) on 2015-09-14T18:36:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação FINAL ENG.pdf: 720256 bytes, checksum: 7f7ae7b4da61d9a474e3e3ccea9f4a64 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-14T19:01:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação FINAL ENG.pdf: 720256 bytes, checksum: 7f7ae7b4da61d9a474e3e3ccea9f4a64 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-14T19:08:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação FINAL ENG.pdf: 720256 bytes, checksum: 7f7ae7b4da61d9a474e3e3ccea9f4a64 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-25 / This work aims to analyze the interaction and the effects of administered prices in the economy, through a DSGE model and the derivation of optimal monetary policies. The model used is a standard New Keynesian DSGE model of a closed economy with two sectors companies. In the first sector, free prices, there is a continuum of firms, and in the second sector of administered prices, there is a single firm. In addition, the model has positive trend inflation in the steady state. The model results suggest that price movements in any sector will impact on both sectors, for two reasons. Firstly, the price dispersion causes productivity to be lower. As the dispersion of prices is a change in the relative price of any sector, relative to general prices in the economy, when a movement in the price of a sector is not followed by another, their relative weights will change, leading to an impact on productivity in both sectors. Second, the path followed by the administered price sector is considered in future inflation expectations, which is used by companies in the free sector to adjust its optimal price. When this path leads to an expectation of higher inflation, the free sector companies will choose a higher mark-up to accommodate this expectation, thus leading to higher inflation trend when there is imperfect competition in the free sector. Finally, the analysis of optimal policies proved inconclusive, certainly indicating that there is influence of the adjustment model of administered prices in the definition of optimal monetary policy, but a quantitative study is needed to define the degree of impact. / Este trabalho tem o objetivo de analisar a interação e os efeitos dos preços administrados na economia, por meio de um modelo DSGE e pela derivação das políticas monetárias ótimas. O modelo utilizado é um modelo DSGE padrão Novo Keynesiano de uma economia fechada com empresas de dois setores, no primeiro setor, de preços livres, há um contínuo de empresas, e no setor de preços administrados uma única empresa. Adicionalmente, o modelo possui inflação positiva no steady state. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que os movimentos de preços em qualquer setor terá impacto em ambos os sectores, por duas razões. Em primeiro lugar, a dispersão de preços faz com que a produtividade seja menor. Como a dispersão dos preços é uma mudança no preço relativo de qualquer sector, em relação aos preços gerais da economia, quando um movimento nos preços de um setor não é seguido pelo outro, seus pesos relativos mudarão, levando a um impacto sobre a produtividade em ambos os sectores. Em segundo lugar, o caminho seguido pelo setor de preços administrados é considerado na expectativa futura de inflação, que é utilizado pelas empresas do setor livre para ajustar o seu preço ótimo. Quando este caminho leva a uma expectativa de inflação mais elevada, as empresas do sector livre irão escolher um mark-up maior, para acomodar esta expectativa, conduzindo assim a uma maior tendência de inflação, quando há uma concorrência imperfeita no setor livre. Por fim, a análise das políticas ótimas se mostrou inconclusiva, certamente indicando que há influencia do modelo de ajuste dos preços administrados na definição da política monetária ótima, porém sendo necessário um estudo quantitativo para definir o grau de impacto.