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Der aktuelle demographische Wandel umfasst nicht nur den Rückgang der Bevölkerung und die Alterung der Gesellschaft, sondern auch das Abnehmen der Haushaltsgrößen und veränderte Familienstrukturen. Das betrifft in erster Linie Veränderungen von Lebensformen insbesondere von Frauen, die eine große Rolle im Prozess des gegenwärtigen demographischen Wandels spielen. Am Beispiel der Stadt Leipzig stehen diese Entwicklungen im Mittelpunkt der vorliegenden Studie. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit wird – neben einem generellen Überblick über Trends des demographischen Wandels in Leipzig nach der politischen Wende – in einer empirischen Analyse von veränderten Lebensformen junger Frauen in Leipzig liegen.

Calculating the numbers of people, their age, and income demographic in our future not only gives the idea of how people’s lifestyle will change, but also provides a clue of how planners should prepare the future. In this perspective, planners should pay close attention to any possible changes in demographic profile. By closely researching the cause and effect of the changes, they are able to be more responsible to the future and design an environment that better meets the needs of the population. According to many researches about population projection, we will experience a significant shift in population pyramid and this can be traced to the Baby Boomer generation’s aging. This report starts with connecting the population change to the recent development theories in urban planning and design field. To make our living environment better, and to make the urban theories, such as Infill Development, or New Urbanism, more sustainable, I think the development patterns should be more flexible to reflect our future demographic changes. By doing so, we will be able to maximize the advantages of those theories and make our built environment more sustainable stage. / text

This thesis investigates the impact of rural to urban migration on long-standing commons regimes in the Sierra Norte (northern highlands) of Oaxaca – the most biologically and culturally diverse state in Mexico. Since the second half of the twentieth century, local communities have been engaged with regional, national and international markets for wage labour, with many losing a significant percentage of their resident populations. The study shows how demographic and cultural change is impacting the two social institutions – cargos and tequios – that underpin the highly autonomous form of governance the region is famed for. The loss of able-bodied men and women has meant that these customary systems are struggling to remain operational. In response, a number of far-reaching changes have been introduced, including institutional adaptations and the forging of strong translocal ties that show potential for reducing the vulnerability of affected communities. However, while migration was temporary or circular for much of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, thus helping to maintain a balance between subsistence production and market engagement, a form of semi-permanent or permanent migration has come to dominate over the past decade and a half. This critical yet poorly recognised shift in migration dynamics has seen new and increased pressures emerge, and served to reduce the effectiveness of adaptive strategies at the community level. Within this context, the implications for commons theory are discussed, with two alternate frameworks (rational choice vs. moral economy) utilised to explain why institutions may persist, transform or fail in the face of change. In addition, a layer of complexity is added to the body of work examining the consequences of rural depopulation on Mexican forest landscapes and associated biological diversity. The study questions the assumption that rural to urban migration necessarily stimulates ecosystem recovery and enhances biodiversity conservation at a landscape scale. In fact, because of abandonment of a mosaic of use, the net effect may be an overall loss of biodiversity. From a policy perspective, the principal contributions of the study are especially pertinent at a time when funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.

This thesis investigates the impact of rural to urban migration on long-standing commons regimes in the Sierra Norte (northern highlands) of Oaxaca – the most biologically and culturally diverse state in Mexico. Since the second half of the twentieth century, local communities have been engaged with regional, national and international markets for wage labour, with many losing a significant percentage of their resident populations. The study shows how demographic and cultural change is impacting the two social institutions – cargos and tequios – that underpin the highly autonomous form of governance the region is famed for. The loss of able-bodied men and women has meant that these customary systems are struggling to remain operational. In response, a number of far-reaching changes have been introduced, including institutional adaptations and the forging of strong translocal ties that show potential for reducing the vulnerability of affected communities. However, while migration was temporary or circular for much of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, thus helping to maintain a balance between subsistence production and market engagement, a form of semi-permanent or permanent migration has come to dominate over the past decade and a half. This critical yet poorly recognised shift in migration dynamics has seen new and increased pressures emerge, and served to reduce the effectiveness of adaptive strategies at the community level. Within this context, the implications for commons theory are discussed, with two alternate frameworks (rational choice vs. moral economy) utilised to explain why institutions may persist, transform or fail in the face of change. In addition, a layer of complexity is added to the body of work examining the consequences of rural depopulation on Mexican forest landscapes and associated biological diversity. The study questions the assumption that rural to urban migration necessarily stimulates ecosystem recovery and enhances biodiversity conservation at a landscape scale. In fact, because of abandonment of a mosaic of use, the net effect may be an overall loss of biodiversity. From a policy perspective, the principal contributions of the study are especially pertinent at a time when funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.

Background: People who are religiously unaffiliated (including self-identifying atheists and agnostics, as well as those who say their religion is "nothing in particular") made up 16.4% of the world's population in 2010. Unaffiliated populations have been growing in North America and Europe, leading some to expect that this group will grow as a share of the world's population. However, such forecasts overlook the impact of demographic factors, such as fertility and the large, aging unaffiliated population in Asia. Objective: We project the future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations around the world. Methods: We use multistate cohort-component methods to project the size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations. Projection inputs such as religious composition, differential fertility, and age structure data, as well as religious switching patterns, are based on the best available census and survey data for each country. This research is based on an analysis of more than 2,500 data sources. Results: Taking demographic factors into account, we project that the unaffiliated will make up 13.2% of the world's population in 2050. The median age of religiously affiliated women is six years younger than unaffiliated women. The 2010-15 Total Fertility Rate for those with a religious affiliation is 2.59 children per woman, nearly a full child higher than the rate for the unaffiliated (1.65 children per woman). Conclusions: The religiously unaffiliated are projected to decline as a share of the world's population in the decades ahead because their net growth through religious switching will be more than offset by higher childbearing among the younger affiliated population.

Gentrification applies not only to the largest and oldest cities; it is a multi-scalar phenomenon playing out in smaller and less prominent settings as well. This study examines temporal changes in property values, demographic characteristics, and types of businesses in the central Oklahoma City area. A major urban revitalization project which began in 1993 created strong gentrification characteristics near the renewal's epicenter, the Bricktown entertainment district. Data suggest that several specific neighborhoods in the surrounding area exhibited rising property values, improving educational attainment rates, decreasing household sizes, and a shift toward cosmopolitan retail activity. While it is evident that Bricktown has been transformed, the socio-economic traits of surrounding neighborhoods have been altered by the ripple effects of urban renewal.

Der Abwassersektor in Deutschland sieht sich mit zunehmend turbulentem Umfeld konfrontiert. Auf Grund der langen Nutzungsdauer ihrer Infrastruktur und ihrer Kapitalintensität ist die Abwasserwirtschaft durch hohe Fixkosten und durch ihre Anfälligkeit gegenüber Pfadabhängigkeiten charakterisiert. Dies zeigt sich besonders im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels in den letzten Jahren, in Folge dessen abnehmende Bevölkerungszahlen zu einem Verlust von Gebührenzahlern geführt haben. Zusätzlich wurde dieser Effekt durch einen beträchtlichen Rückgang der Wassernachfrage pro Kopf verstärkt. Die herkömmlichen Planungsansätze in der Siedlungsentwässerung basieren hauptsächlich auf Prognosen und Trendfortschreibungen und berücksichtigen somit nur unzureichend sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht diese Dissertation inwiefern die geringe Anpassungsfähigkeit, die im Zusammenhang mit dem demografischen Wandel offensichtlich wurde, durch eine Stärkung der strategischen Planungskompetenzen, und speziell durch die Anwendung der Szenarioplanung, erhöht werden kann. Hierfür werden sowohl die prediktiven als auch die explorative Möglichkeiten der Szenarioplanung bewertet. Im ersten prediktiven Ansatz liegt der Fokus auf den spezifischen Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Abwassergebühren. Der zweite explorative Ansatz basiert auf einer Kombination der Delphi-Technik mit der Szenarioplanung, in der die bedeutendsten zukünftigen Herausforderungen identifiziert und in vier Szenarien zusammengefasst werden. / The sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios.

Die Arbeit analysiert die Bedeutung des demografischen Wandels für die Entwicklung der Gesundheitsausgaben in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2050. Anhand von Querschnittsdaten der amtlichen Statistik für den Bereich der Krankenhäuser wird unter der Annahme konstanter Altersprofile der Gesundheitsausgaben pro Kopf sowie konstanter Inzidenzraten der isolierte demografisch bedingte Ausgabenanstieg prognostiziert. Der theoretische Teil der Arbeit stellt weitere Einflussfaktoren sowie die Medikalisierungs- und Kompressionsthese zur Entwicklung von Morbidität im Alter vor. Als Antwort auf den diagnostizierten Anstieg der Ausgaben werden mögliche Reformansätze diskutiert. / The paper analyses the effects of continued demographic change on health expenditure in Germany until 2050. Using cross sectional data from official statistics for hospitals the isolated effect of demographic change on future expenditure is predicted by assuming time-invariant age-specific expenditure profiles per capita and incidence for specific groups of diagnoses. Further influencing factors as well as competing theories of compression versus expansion of morbidity are presented. As a reaction to the challenge of expected further increases in health expenditure, possible reforms are discussed.

The impact of demographic changes on the real estate market Abstract This diploma thesis monitors changes in the demographic behavior of the population of the Slovak Republic and their impact on the real estate market. The aim is to analyze consumer behavior on the demand side for residential real estate. Within the population development of the Slovak Republic between 1990 and 2060. The purpose of the analysis is to construct the function of the demand for residential real estate in the Slovak Republic. Which expresses the impact of demographic changes on demand for housing. The model reflects changes in demographic behavior of the population into quantitative and structural changes in residential property demand. We expect that despite the uncertainty of the uncertainty, the forecast for residential property demand is high inertia. This stems from the stable age structure of the population. We assume that the period of the next sixty years will be characterized by a change in the trend of population growth and the continuous aging of the population. What negatively affects the demand-side real estate market Keywords: demograpic change, real estate market, Slovakia