Este trabalho visa analisar a relação de causalidade existente entre ensino superior e crescimento econômico no período de 1954 a 1999. Para isso abordar-se-á a economia da educação, com ênfase na abordagem do capital humano e o papel do Estado na economia, com destaque para área da educação. Além disso, analisar-se-á através de estudo empírico a relação entre a educação em nível superior e o PIB brasileiro. / The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the causality relationship between higher education and economic growth. It will be broached the education economy with emphasis in the human capital theory and the Estate in economy bring out to the education area. Moreover it will be analyzed through empirical methodology the relationship between higher education and economic growth.

A presente pesquisa enfeixa o exame das relações existentes entre crescimento econômico e inovação tecnológica, empreendedorismo e o papel das políticas públicas direcionadas para o fomento da inovação tecnológica no âmbito das microempresas (ME) e empresas de pequeno porte (EPP). O ponto de partida do trabalho explica que o crescimento econômico constitui objeto de grande relevância para a teoria econômica, considerando que enquanto aumento sustentável do Produto Interno Bruto real per capita revela-se essencial para a elevação do padrão de bem estar da sociedade e que a inovação é amplamente aceita como vetor decisivo para o crescimento do produto e da produtividade total dos fatores. Tanto o modelo exógeno (Solow) quanto o endógeno mostram que o “choque tecnológico” é condição central para o crescimento. A diferença é que o segundo vai além, diz que políticas públicas contam sim como fator de crescimento, pois este requer sistema de Ciência e Tecnologia eficiente, formação de capital humano, regras de jogo e incentivos adequados. Considera também o papel estratégico do empreendedor como agente de inovação, agregador de valor, organizador da produção, responsável por novos processos de produção e de produtos, criador de empregos, de novos mercados, de lucro e de riquezas. No caso do Brasil, ao mesmo tempo em que é confirmado o perfil empreendedor do povo brasileiro, aponta-se, porém, fortes características de não-inovadores. As ME e EPP possuem papel significativo na geração de empregos, mas insignificante participação como agentes de inovação. É que de maneira geral, as empresas brasileiras manifestam clara opção pela compra de tecnologias, ao invés de promover projetos estratégicos de geração de inovações. A dificuldade em produzir conhecimentos que possam ser incorporados como inovação é que no Brasil o mercado tem falhado sistematicamente na realização de investimentos em Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação – CT&I e em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento - P&D, questões tratadas predominantemente na esfera pública. Por sua vez, a maioria dos programas de CT&I tem diretrizes de natureza setorial. É certo que a detenção do conhecimento científico é condição necessária, mas não suficiente para o processo de inovação. Neste sentido, iniciativas governamentais recentes demonstram que dentre os mecanismos de financiamento em vigor, os Fundos Setoriais são as ferramentas principais para o alcance da inovação tecnológica nos setores produtivos e áreas estratégicas. Ao lado disso, constatamos que Roraima também carece de implantação de políticas de desenvolvimento de Ciência e Tecnologia e de mecanismos próprios de financiamento das atividades de P&D. No entanto, quando se percebe a inovação e o empreendedorismo como elementos essenciais do crescimento econômico, pode-se argumentar que o Estado brasileiro vem buscando derivar políticas públicas de metodologias e enfoques teóricos que só têm sentido para o desenvolvimento de tecnologias nas empresas, com a ilusão que existem sistemas nacionais de inovação científico-tecnológicos. Fica evidente que o Brasil muito terá que fazer para criar um ambiente de negócios mais amplo, em que as empresas privadas queiram investir em inovação, assumam riscos e expandam suas atividades produtivas para se tornarem mais competitivas. / This gathers together research examining the relationship between economic growth and technological innovation, entrepreneurship and the role of public policies towards the promotion of technological innovation within the enterprises (ME) and small businesses (EPP). The starting point of the work explains that economic growth is the object of great importance to economic theory, considering that as a sustainable increase in real gross domestic product per capita it is essential to raising the standard of wealth in society and that the innovation is widely accepted as critical to vector output growth and total factor productivity. Both, exogenous (Solow) and the endogenous show that the "shock art" is central condition for growth. The difference is that the second goes further to say that public policies have rather as a growth factor, as this requires system of science and technology effectively, human capital formation, game rules and incentives. It also considers the strategic role of the entrepreneur as an agent of innovation, aggregator value, the organizer of production, responsible for new production processes and products, create jobs, new markets, profit and wealth. In the case of Brazil, while it confirmed the entrepreneurial profile of the Brazilian people, it is noted, however, strong features of non-innovative. The ME and EPP have significant role in generating jobs, but insignificant participation as agents of innovation. Is that in general, Brazilian companies express clear option for the purchase of technologies, rather than promote strategic projects to generate innovations. The difficulty in producing knowledge that can be incorporated as an innovation in Brazil is that the market has consistently failed to engage in investment in Science, Technology and Innovation - ST & I and the Research and Development - R & D issues addressed predominantly in the public sphere. In turn, most programs, T & I has guidelines for sectoral nature. It is true that the detention of scientific knowledge is necessary but not sufficient for the innovation process. In this sense, government initiatives have demonstrated that among funding mechanisms in place, the Sector Funds are the main tools for achieving technological innovation in the productive sectors and policy areas. Besides, we found that Roraima also requires implementation of development policies of Science and Technology and the mechanisms to finance the activities of R & D. However, when one perceives the innovation and entrepreneurship as key elements of economic growth, one can argue that Brazil has tried to derive public policy methodologies and theoretical approaches that make sense only for the development of technologies in enterprises, with the illusion that there are national systems of scientific and technological innovation. It is evident that Brazil has much to do to create a larger business in which private companies want to invest in innovation, take risks and expand their productive activities to become more competitive.

Este trabalho analisa as relações entre o processo de transição demográfica pelo qual o Brasil está passando e o crescimento econômico. Levando em consideração o que os demógrafos denominam de “janela de oportunidade demográfica”, o Brasil tem hoje uma potencialidade única para acelerar o crescimento econômico e conduzir o país para um desenvolvimento sustentado. O trabalho está dividido em três capítulos. Partindo da discussão filosófica entre o iluminista Marquês de Condorcet e o pastor anglicano Thomas Malthus, apresenta-se a teoria da transição demográfica e a relação entre transição demográfica e desenvolvimento econômico, com destaque para a transição das tendências de mortalidade e de fecundidade. O processo de transição demográfica que o Brasil está passando e as possibilidades de crescimento econômico advindas da demografia são apresentadas no segundo capitulo. No último, são discutidos dois pontos essenciais para o sucesso de qualquer política que vise crescimento econômico sustentável: o mercado de trabalho brasileiro e o sistema educacional do país. Apresenta-se, também, uma análise da desigualdade social no Brasil. Considerando-se que as oportunidades demográficas se apresentam tão somente por este lado, procura-se demonstrar a importância da inserção do componente populacional na agenda das políticas públicas como um fator que pode contribuir para a aceleração do crescimento econômico do Brasil. Caso contrário, o componente demográfico reduzirá sua eficiência e o país se afastará dos objetivos de um desenvolvimento econômico com redução das desigualdades sociais. / This work analyzes the relationship between the process of demographic transition, through which Brazil is going, and the economic growth. Taking into consideration what the demographers call “window of demographic opportunity”, Brazil has a unique potentiality to speed up the economic growth and lead the country to the sustainable development. The work is divided into three chapters. The theory of the demographic transition and the relationship between the demographic transition and the economic development is based on the philosophic discussion between the illuminist Marquis de Condorcet and the Anglican minister Thomas Malthus, with emphasis on the transition of the mortality and fertility tendencies. The demographic transition process Brazil is going through and the possibilities of the economic growth arising from the demography are presented in the second chapter. The last chapter discusses two essential points for the success of any policy that aims at the sustainable economic growth: Brazilian labor market and educational system of the country. Furthermore, the social inequality is analyzed as well. Considering that the demographic opportunities are only presented from this viewpoint, the work tries to show the importance of introducing the populational component in the agenda of the public policies as a factor that may contribute to speeding up the economic growth in Brazil. Otherwise, the demographic component will reduce its efficiency and the country will stray from the objectives of economic development aimed at reducing the social inequalities.

p. 1-167 / Submitted by Santiago Fabio (fabio.ssantiago@hotmail.com) on 2013-03-19T19:37:54Z No. of bitstreams: 2 tftftf252525.pdf: 1091012 bytes, checksum: cf4a029d52a4863becc197b02a5903e0 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO de Miguel - Capa, Sumário e listas.pdf: 75204 bytes, checksum: e486c0dc92333eb9f2255da791c3ade0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lima(tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2013-04-09T18:48:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 tftftf252525.pdf: 1091012 bytes, checksum: cf4a029d52a4863becc197b02a5903e0 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO de Miguel - Capa, Sumário e listas.pdf: 75204 bytes, checksum: e486c0dc92333eb9f2255da791c3ade0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-04-09T18:48:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 tftftf252525.pdf: 1091012 bytes, checksum: cf4a029d52a4863becc197b02a5903e0 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO de Miguel - Capa, Sumário e listas.pdf: 75204 bytes, checksum: e486c0dc92333eb9f2255da791c3ade0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004 / Este trabalho analisou a regulamentação do sistema financeiro nacional, procurando verificar se esta contribui eficazmente para o desenvolvimento do País, nos termos definidos pela Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil. Como referencial teórico para a análise dos dados retomou-se a discussão entre a concepção clássica da intermediação financeira, para a qual a atividade bancária seria passiva na determinação das variáveis reais da economia, e os pós-keynesianos, que, a partir da capacidade de criação de moeda pelos bancos, defendem a idéia de que o papel do sistema financeiro no crescimento econômico ultrapassa a simples alocação de recursos poupados pelas unidades familiares. As pesquisas consistiram na análise de leis e regulamentos referentes a cinco itens escolhidos, referentes ao sistema financeiro, e na verificação dos correspondentes resultados observados na economia do País. A conclusão foi que a regulamentação atende prioritariamente aos interesses do Capital e não contribui para a promoção do desenvolvimento do País nem para que haja uma boa prestação de serviços financeiros à coletividade. / Salvador

Submitted by Bruno Delalibera (brunodelalibera@gmail.com) on 2014-07-22T18:41:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EducInfantil.pdf: 439321 bytes, checksum: 0479cb0363508d107667a98ac02fdaa7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2014-07-23T17:46:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EducInfantil.pdf: 439321 bytes, checksum: 0479cb0363508d107667a98ac02fdaa7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-08-01T11:55:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EducInfantil.pdf: 439321 bytes, checksum: 0479cb0363508d107667a98ac02fdaa7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-01T11:55:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EducInfantil.pdf: 439321 bytes, checksum: 0479cb0363508d107667a98ac02fdaa7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-19 / The objective of this work is to understand, from the perspective of education, the divergence in per capita income and the convergence of schooling among the sub-Saharan and European countries between 1960 and 2010. This study uses a general equilibrium model where there are two sectors in the economy and homogeneous consumers who choose consumption, formal education and early childhood education. According to the results of the work, despite the evolution of early childhood education for the countries of sub-Saharan those countries did not reach early childhood education that Europeans had in 1960. Moreover, the life expectation and total factor productivity were important for understanding the increasing the distance in per capita income between sub-Saharan and European countries. Finally, the main result in terms of educational policy is that policies to encourage early childhood education are more effective to increase the per capita income than policies encouraging formal education. / O objetivo deste trabalho é entender, pela ótica da educação, a divergência da renda per capita e a convergência dos anos de escolaridade entre os países da África Subsaariana e os países europeus entre 1960 e 2010. Para tanto, o presente trabalho utiliza um ferramental de equilíbrio geral, no qual existem dois setores na economia e consumidores homogêneos que escolhem consumo, educação formal e educação infantil. De acordo com os resultados do trabalho, apesar da educação infantil para os países subsaarianos ter evoluído entre 1960 e 2010 os países subsaarianos em 2010 não alcançaram a educação infantil que os europeus tinham em 1960. Além disso, a produtividade total dos fatores e a expectativa de vida foram fatores importantes para compreender esse aumento da distância da renda per capita entre os países subsaarianos e os europeus. Por fim, o principal resultado em termos de política educacional é que políticas de incentivo à educação infantil são mais eficazes em impactar a renda per capita do que políticas de incentivo à educação formal.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 antonioienagaturma2004.pdf.jpg: 10691 bytes, checksum: 0fe5cc4be9957ee7f4ca83874f7e2e3c (MD5) antonioienagaturma2004.pdf: 444225 bytes, checksum: 15fab88fea0426b37366358caef533b7 (MD5) antonioienagaturma2004.pdf.txt: 84165 bytes, checksum: 31ec391cdf46450c87f929f3558bd7d1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-03-09T00:00:00Z / This study has the objective of making an analysis of the investment price in Brazil between 1970 and 2005. During this period, the investment price increased consistently, measured by the GNP and investment deflators, increased consistently. Through the analysis of the series that constitutes the investment, mainly investment in construction and in machinery and equipments, this study objective to determine what are the main responsible for the investment price increase in real terms. The discussion about the investment price is part of a broader discussion about the country economic growth that encompasses studies about Brazilian growth decomposition, capital productivity and impacts of commercial openness. Decrease the investment price comes up as an important question for the economic growth and the present study intends to collaborate in building a clear understanding about the topic. / O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar o preço do investimento no Brasil entre 1970 e 2005. Neste período, o preço do investimento, detectado pela série do deflator da formação bruta de capital fixo sobre a série do deflator do PIB, aumentou de forma acentuada. Através de uma análise do comportamento das séries que compõem o preço do investimento, ou seja, das séries que representam o preço do investimento em construção e em máquinas e equipamentos, objetiva-se determinar quais os principais responsáveis por esse aumento expressivo ao longo dos anos. A discussão a respeito do preço do investimento faz parte de uma discussão maior a respeito do crescimento econômico do país que envolve estudos a respeito da decomposição do crescimento, da produtividade do capital e dos impactos da abertura comercial. Baixar o preço dos investimentos surge, então, como uma questão importante para o crescimento e o presente estudo pretende colaborar para construção de um entendimento sobre o assunto.

Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre Economia do Empreendedorismo. O primeiro deles trata sobre os determinantes do empreendedorismo no Brasil a partir de modelos de escolha ocupacional, usando os microdados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra por Domicílios (PNAD) do ano de 2012. A estratégia empírica adotada empregou os modelos de escolha discreta na estimação da escolha ocupacional. Os resultados demonstraram que existem efeitos significativos para as variáveis: anos de estudos iniciais, sexo, estado civil assim como pensionista e aposentado. Para completar a análise foram estimadas as equações de rendimento, as quais explicam a escolha pela ocupação empreendedora em função dos ganhos relativos ao trabalho assalariado. Já o segundo ensaio tem como objetivo apresentar uma evidência empírica para a relação existente entre empreendedorismo e corrupção nos estados brasileiros, utilizando uma abordagem teórica e empírica. Este artigo utiliza um indicador objetivo de corrupção governamental estadual baseado no Cadastro de Contas Irregulares do Tribunal de Contas da União (CADIRREG) como proxy para a corrupção regional e a abertura de novas empresas per capita como medida para a atividade empreendedora. Foram utilizados o método de dados de painel estático, dinâmico e o método GMMSYS, estes últimos empregados para corrigir possíveis problemas de endogeneidade. Os resultados encontrados mostraram-se coerentes com a hipótese teórica “grease in the wheels”, na qual a corrupção influencia positivamente a atividade empreendedora em países em desenvolvimento com elevada burocracia. Por fim, o terceiro ensaio avalia os impactos do empreendedorismo via inovação a partir do Global Trade Analysis Project – GTAP, um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC), destacando os impactos no crescimento econômicoe no bem-estar geral da economia. Os resultados mostraram-se coerentes com a literatura da Economia do Empreendedorismo, mostrando que aumento no empreendedorismo conduz a uma elevação no crescimento econômico e bem-estar. / This thesis consists of three essays on the Economics Entrepreneurship. The first deals with the determinants of entrepreneurship in Brazil from occupational choice models, using the data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) of 2012. The empirical strategy adopted has employed discrete choice models in the estimation of occupational choice. The results showed that there are significant effects on the variables: years of initial studies, gender, marital status as well as pensioners and retired. To complete the analysis were estimated earnings equations, which explains the choice by the entrepreneurial occupation in terms of earnings for paid employment. The second test aims to present empirical evidence for the relationship between entrepreneurship and corruption in the Brazilian states, using a theoretical and empirical approach. This article uses an objective indicator of state government corruption based on the Register of Irregular accounts of the Court of Audit (CADIRREG) as a proxy for regional corruption and the opening of new companies per capita as a measure for regional entrepreneurial activity. They used the method of static panel data, dynamic and GMM-SYS method to correct the endogeneity problem. The results proved to be consistent with the theoretical hypothesis "grease in the wheels" in which corruption positively influence the entrepreneurial activity in developing countries with high bureaucracy. Finally, the third test evaluates the impacts of entrepreneurship via innovation from the Global Trade Analysis Project - GTAP, a model of computable general equilibrium (CGE), highlighting the impacts on economic growth and overall well-being economy. The results were consistent with the literatureof Entrepreneurship Economics, showing that increased entrepreneurship leads to a rise in economic growth and well-being.

This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector. / This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector.

x, 132 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / This dissertation examines the role that institutions play in the existence of multiple equilibria in models of economic development. In addition, it examines the dynamics of transition between such equilibria. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I build a dynamic model of institutional choice, wherein the government invests in the legal infrastructure in response to the need for the protection of output from appropriation. A unique equilibrium exists only under commitment, not under discretion. This would suggest that a measure of institutional quality must not only consider the extent to which current policies protect property rights but also include the ability of the government to commit to reform in the long run. The second chapter of this dissertation examines the effect of adaptive learning on stability and transitional dynamics between multiple equilibria in a growth model with human capital externalities. I find that there are two equilibria, one a poverty trap with no education. Only the poverty trap is locally stable under learning. However, productivity shocks are not sufficient to generate transitions between the equilibria. Indeed, productivity shocks must lie below a threshold in order for the economy to escape the poverty trap. These escape paths do not allow the economy to transition to the upper steady state. I propose instead the use of shocks to expectations to permit such a transition. The third chapter of this dissertation presents an empirical test for the role that human capital and institutions may play in transitions between equilibria by estimating a Markov-switching regression. This methodology allows me to characterize both distinct growth regimes and transitions between them. I explore the effects of time-varying institutional measures and human capital on transition probabilities. I find that political and economic institutions are similar in their effects on transitions arid that the time variation in the institutional measure increases the probability of identifying both miracle growth and stagnation regimes. Furthermore, human capital has a significant effect on switches between miracle growth, stable growth and stagnation. / Committee in charge: George Evans, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Shankha Chakraborty, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Member, Economics; Yue Fang, Outside Member, Decision Sciences

A l’intersection de trois branches de la science économique, l’économie du développement, la nouvelle économie institutionnelle et l’histoire des faits économiques, cette thèse revient sur la problématique abondemment traitée mais toujours entourée de controverses et de confusions, de l’impact de la nature d’un régime politique sur le processus de développement économique. Dans ce cadre, nous souhaitons la traiter d’une manière dynamique et globale. Pour cette raison, nous allons passer en revue diverses séquences historiques afin d’étudier les trajectoires politiques et économiques des nations et de détecter ainsi les points de convergence et de divergence qui les lient. Notre démarche ne consiste pas à établir les corrélations qui peuvent exister entre la nature d’un régime politique et le taux de croissance économique, mais plutôt à chercher des liens de causalité entre les caractéristiques d’une démocratie ou d’une dictature et le développement économique d’un pays. En analysant cette relation dans la durée, nous allons mettre en avant les changements importants qu’elle peut subir mais aussi les influences mutuelles que peuvent avoir les évolutions politiques et économiques. Nous allons ainsi analyser le rôle que peut avoir la structure politique dans la pauvreté et la richesse des nations. En suivant d’abord le processus de développement économique en Europe occidentale et en observant comment ce processus va réagir face à l’avènement des monarchies absolues et à l’émergence de régimes politiques plus libres. Ensuite, il sera question du rôle des dictatures prédatrices dans la persistance des problèmes de sous-développement dans les pays du Tiers-Monde. La comparaison de l’impact de la démocratie et des régimes autoritaires développeurs sur le processus de développement économique nous amènera dans un premier temps à analyser théoriquement les effets positifs et négatifs des deux régimes, d’abord dans le court et le moyen terme, ensuite dans le long terme. Par la suite, il sera question de l’analyse des trajectoires politico-économiques du Chili, de la Corée du Sud et de la Chine afin de confronter l’analyse théorique à l’épreuve des cas empiriques. / At the intersection of three branches of economic science, namely, development economics, the new institutional economics and economic history, this dissertation re-examines a problem which is still surrounded by confusion and controversy in spite of the abundant literature which has been devoted to it: the impact of the nature of a political regime on the process of economic development. In this perspective, we shall deal with it in a dynamic and global manner. We will thus overview several historical sequences in order to study the political and economic paths of nations with the hope of isolating points of convergence and divergence that link them. Our endeavour does not consist in establishing correlations that may exist between the nature of a political regime and the rate of economic growth, but rather in identifying the causal links between the characteristics of a democracy or a dictatorship and the economic development of a country. Through the analysis of this relationship over a long span of time, we shall highlight the significant changes that it can undergo, but also the mutual influences that political and economic evolution can entertain. We shall thus analyse the role that the political structure can have on the poverty and the wealth of nations. First, we shall analyse the process of economic development in Western Europe by pointing out how this process reacted to the advent of absolutist monarchies and to the emergence of freer political regimes. We shall then analyse the role of predatory dictatorships in the persistence of underdevelopment in countries of the Third World. The comparison of the impact of democracy and authoritarian-developmentalist regimes on the process of economic development will lead us in a first step to the theoretical analysis of the positive and negative impacts of these two regimes in the short and the medium term, and then in the long term. It will then be left to us to analyse the political-economic historical paths of Chile, South Korea and China so as to subject our theoretical analysis to the test of empirical cas