Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Despite their lack of merits and demands, Occupy Wall Street (OWS) did become a defining feature in the short aftermath of the Financial Crisis and a part of the global occupy-movements during the protest year of 2011. As the founders and organisers behind the first encampments in Zuccotti Park called out for a "Tahrir moment" in the United States of America (US), few scholars or pundits had seen the leaderless movement coming. OWS spread across the US in the matter of months, hitting the media headlines gradually and more rapidly than any previous protest movement. Scholarly responses to OWS have been plentiful, and their categorisations of the OWS’ structure, demands and impact have been going in many different directions. This study attempts to debate and analyse the main research question; is OWS a new kind of a social movement? Even though there are several ways in which one may approach this question, the following will focus on the organisational structures, the political opportunity structures and the global linkages of OWS. The organisational structures has been debated by most, as the movement has a leaderless structure, it is ruled by consensus and supported by protesters from all social spheres, who came, protested and left as they pleased. The political and economic deficits, which gives way to the political opportunity structures of the movement, has not been this dramatic since the Great Depression. The Financial Crisis of 2008 has not only been defined as an economic crisis, but also a crisis of representative democracy. Furthermore, the global protest movements of 2011 have been similar in several ways. Even as all of them, be it Tahrir, 15M, in Greece or OWS, has been unique in matters of context, time and space, they share similarities in tactics, methods and fundamental demands - democracy and prosperity. The concluding statement to the research question is not clear-cut. Rather, it revokes former debates, which distinguished between old and new social movements, and implements a globalising civil society. A new kind of a social movement has come and gone, with elements of the earlier movements. It has added new modes of tactics, structures and demands, all formed by the present context. OWS is not an exception. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ten spyte van hul gebrek aan eise en tasbare sukses, het “Occupy Wall Street (OWS) wel ’n definiërende kenmerk geword tydens kort naloop van die Finansiële Krisies, asook ’n deel van die globale beset-bewegings tydens die 2011 protesjaar. Daar was min akademici en kenners wat, ten tye van die eerste kamperings in Zuccotti Park en die eis deur die stigters en organiseerders van OWS vir ’n “Tahrir oomblik”, die opkoms van hierdie leierlose beweging voorsien het. Binne ’n kwessie van maande het OWS dwarsoor die VSA versprei, eers stadig en daarna vinniger die hoofopskrifte van die media gehaal as enige ander protes-beweging wat dit voorafgegaan het. Daar is heelwat akademiese bydraes (uit verskillende dissiplines) wat daarop gemik is om OWS te verstaan in terme van hoe om dit te kategoriseer, die struktuur daarvan, die eise wat gestel is en die impak daarvan. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die hoofnavorsingsvraag te bespreek en analiseer, naamlik; is OWS ’n nuwe soort sosiale beweging? Die benadering wat gevolg word is om te fokus om organisatoriese strukture, politieke geleentheidstrukture and die globale verbintenisse van OWS. Die organisatoriese strukture het die meeste aandag gekry in die literatuur tot dusver, aangesien die organisasie ’n leierlose struktuur het. Besluite word deur middel van konsensus geneem en ondersteuning word gewerf van protesteerders uit ’n verskeidenheid van sosiale sfere. Hierdie protesteerders het opgedaag, protes aangeteken, en weer vertrek na willekeur. Die politieke en ekonomiese terkortkominge van die kapitalistiese stelsel in die VSA, waarin die politieke geleentheidstrukture van die beweging geanker is, was, sedert die Groot Depressie, nie so skynbaar dramaties nie. Die Finansiële Krisies wat in 2008 sy hoogtepunt bereik het, word gedefinieer nie alleen as ’n ekonomiese krisies nie,maar ook as ’n krisies van verteenwoordigende demokrasie. Daarby is daar bevind dat die globale protesbewegings wat in 2011 gedy het, soortgelyke kenmerke gehad het. Nieteenstaande die feit dat Tahrir in Egipte, 15M, die Griekse protes-aksies en OWS wel as uniek gesien kan word in terme van konteks, tyd en ruimte, is daar ooreenkomste in taktiek, metodes en fundamentele eise: deelnemende demokrasie en welvaart vir almal. Die slotsom waartoe die tesis kom is nie definitief nie. Eerder, is die gevolgtrekking dat daar teruggegaan moet word na vorige debatte wat onderskeid getref het tussen ou en nuwe sosiale bewegings, en ook na die literatuur oor die moontlikheid van ’n globale burgerlike samelewing. Wat wel vasstaan is dat ’n nuwe soort sosiale beweging verskyn het en weer gekwyn het, wat aspekte van vorige bewegings omvat maar ook in duidelike terme van hulle verskil. In die opsig is OWS nie ’n uitsondering nie, met nuwe taktiek, strukture en eise wat almal gevorm is binne die huidige konteks.

This thesis is based on four essays in exchange rates and international finance. The first essay, examined in the second chapter, considers the long-run performance of the flexible-price monetary model as well as the real interest differential monetary model to explain the dollar–yen exchange rate during a period of high international capital mobility. We apply the Johansen methodology to quarterly data over the period 1980:01–2009:04 and show that the inadequacy of the two monetary models is due to the breakdown of their underlying building-blocks, money demand stability and purchasing power parity. In particular, modifying the monetary models by adjusting them for real stock prices to capture the stability of money demands on one hand and also for real economic variables such as productivity differential, relative government spending, and real oil price to explain the persistence in the real exchange rate on the other provide long-run relationships that appear consistent with the monetary models. Our findings of long-run weak exogeneity tests also emphasise the importance of the extended models employed here. The second essay, examined in the third chapter, is on the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated to produce evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from stock returns to exchange rate changes in the US and the UK, in the opposite direction in Canada, and of bidirectional causality in the euro area and Switzerland. Furthermore, causality-in-variance from stock returns to exchange rate changes is found in Japan and in the opposite direction in the euro area and Switzerland, whilst there is evidence of bidirectional causality-in-variance in the US and Canada. These findings imply limited opportunities for investors to diversify their assets during this period. The third essay, examined in the fourth chapter, considers the impact of net bond and net equity portfolio flows on exchange rate changes. Two-state Markov-switching models are estimated for the exchange rate of the US vis-a-vis Canada, the euro area, Japan and the UK. Our results suggest that the relationship between net portfolio flows and exchange rate changes is nonlinear for all cases considered, except that of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. The fourth essay, examined in the fifth chapter, considers the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as the dynamic linkages between exchange rate volatility and the variability of these two types of flows. Specifically, a bivariate GARCH-BEKK-in mean model is estimated using bilateral data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, the UK, Japan, Canada, the euro area, and Sweden over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia, whilst two countries (Canada and Japan) showed insignificant responses. With regard to the impact of uncertainty on net bond flows, it is shown to be negative in all countries, except Canada (where it is positive). Under the assumption of risk aversion, this suggests that exchange rate uncertainty induces investors, especially those of the counterpart countries to the US, to reduce their financing activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty. This evidence is strong for the UK, the euro area and Sweden as opposed to Canada, Australia and Japan. Furthermore, since exchange rate volatility and the variability of flows are interlinked, exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used to pursue economic and financial stability.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study attempts to analyse the global economic system in light of the ongoing financial crisis, which is seen as a symptom of a larger crisis of the legitimacy of the capitalist system. It takes a critical approach based, first and foremost, on the theories of Karl Marx. To broaden this application, it also adopts the perspective of the World Systems and neo-Gramscian schools of thought. The study analyses, and synthesises, the theoretical contributions of these approaches, allowing for the conceptualisation of a World System, based upon the tenets of capitalism, with a hegemon, the United States of America, at its apex. Using the historical materialist method, it traces the genesis and progress of the capitalist model. It analyses the particular style of accumulation which precipitated the current crisis. From there it examines the situation in the semi-periphery, the locus of past socialist revolutions. To this end, it regards the case of South Africa, an intermediary, between the industrialised core and the underdeveloped periphery. It uses Robert Cox‟s assessment of the importance of social forces in maintaining or supplanting a hegemonic project. Although the study finds South African society fraught with contradictions, alternative social movements currently remain unable to produce a coherent emancipatory programme. While the crisis, and other recent events, have illuminated the contradictions inherent to capitalism, despite widespread popular mobilisation, coherent responses from the Left remain deficient. The hegemonic structures and institutions are bereft of the necessary prescriptions for a resolution to the situation, yet in this moment of opportunity, the Left appears unable to articulate and mobilise sufficiently to bring about an emancipatory, counter-hegemonic, movement. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie probeer om die globale ekonomiese stelsel binne die konteks van die voortslepende finansiële krisis Hierdie krisies word beskou as 'n simptoom van 'n meer omvattende krisies onderliggend aan die legitimiteit van die kapitalistiese stelsel. Dit volg in die eerste plek ʼn kritiese benadering gebaseer op die teorieë van Karl Marx. Om hierdie toepassing te verbreed, word daar ook gebruik gemaak van die Wêreldstelsel- en neo-Gramscian denkskole. Die studie analiseer en sintetiseer, die teoretiese bydraes van hierdie benaderings, met inagneming van die konseptualisering van ʼn Wêreldstelsel, gebaseer op die beginsels van kapitalisme, met ʼn hegemoon, die Verenigde State van Amerika, aan sy spits. Met behulp van die historiese materialistiese metode gaan dit die wordingsgeskiedenis en verloop van die kapitalistiese model na. Dit analiseer die besondere vorm van akkumulasie wat grondliggend is aan die huidige krisis. Daarna ondersoek dit die situasie in die semi-periferie, die lokus van vorige sosialistiese revolusies. Met daardie doel voor oë fokus die tesis op die geval van Suid-Afrika, ʼn tussenganger, tussen die geïndustrialiseerde kern en die onderontwikkelde periferie. Daar word bevind dat die die Suid-Afrikaanse samelewing vol teenstrydighede is, maar, nietemin, alternatiewe sosiale bewegings tans nie daartoe in staat is om ʼn koherente emansipatoriese program tot stand te bring nie. Terwyl die krisies en ander gebeure, lig gewerp het op die teenstrydighede inherent aan kapitalisme, ontbreek, desondanks wydverspreide algemene mobilisering, koherente reaksies vanuit die Linksgesinde kamp. Die hegemoniese strukture en instellings ly gebrek aan lewensvatbare voorskrifte vir 'n oplossing en Linksgesindes, nieteenstaande die opportunistiese oomblik, is nie daartoe in staat is om te ʼn emansipatoriese, teen-hegemoniese beweging te artikuleer en te mobiliseer nie.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / This futures studies research report uses the Six Pillars of Transformation by Inayatullah (2004) as the methodology to explore the future perspective corporate governance may take in light of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown. The problem here being to understand the corporate governance failures that led to the global economic crises and the influences these failures may have in the future of corporate governance. This research report was compiled through secondary research material. The focus of this research report is on corporate governance, in relation to business related activities in particular, as opposed to general governance and not necessarily from a South African perspective only. This is because the South African corporate governance framework, from a legal and principles point of view, is very linked to Anglo Saxon countries’ frameworks and also that the South African economy is globalised (Naidoo, 2009). The description of corporate governance, by Sir Adrian Cadbury of the UK Cadbury Report (1992), as “the balance between economic and social goals, and between individual and communal goals . . . the aim is to align as nearly as possible the interests of individuals, corporations and society” comprehensively describes corporate governance for the purposes of this research report. Of particular note to this description is the multiple stakeholder balance approach, which the South African King Reports subscribe to, for sustainability purposes among other reasons. The anticipation of the future of corporate governance, as the second pillar of futures transformation, is discussed by describing the related emerging issue analysis thereof. These issues include corporate governance convergence and diversity. However, there are significant signs in various parts of the world, including South Africa, and as Keasy, Thompson and Wright (2005) mentioned that show corporate governance convergence more than the increase of corporate governance diversity. The history of corporate governance change patterns, as the third pillar of futures transformation, are explored to bring into perspective the likely changes for exploration on establishing the future alternatives corporate governance systems may take in future. This is in light of the latest major event of the 2008/9 global economic crises. These patterns of history date back from the end of the 19th century through the great depression, the World War II period until the recent major corporate failures that happened worldwide. The future and nature of corporate governance is further deepened, as the fourth pillar of futures transformation, by applying the Causal Layered Analysis and the Four-Quadrant Map in the causes of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown by corporate governance failures. The creation of corporate governance future alternatives, as the fifth pillar of futures transformation, are explored by outlining the possible, probable, plausible and preferred futures of corporate governance from information provided by the referenced writers of this research report. The preferred and ideal corporate governance approach would be a balanced corporate governance approach that has optimally converged due to the impact by the 2008/9 global economic meltdown, globalized and market based. In the last pillar of futures transformation, transforming the future of corporate governance, the policy implications of the preferred and desired future of corporate governance, according to this research report will be outlined, notwithstanding the challenges to achieve this desired future. These policy changes are likely to be both from a self-regulatory and regulatory perspective.

過去三、四十年來世界各地發生金融危機的頻率較從前高出許多，探究原因後可以發現，與各國陸續開放金融自由化以及國際金融市場快速成長有極大的關係。除此之外，在各國中，金融危機的發生通常具備一些共同特徵，諸如危機發生時會導致資金外流、匯率大幅貶值、股市重挫、產出減少、進出口減少…等影響。因此，面對這一波次級房貸風暴，本研究也即將檢視美國在總體經濟數據上各方面的表現，希望能利用1970年以來已開發國家和開發中國家歷年來所發生的貨幣、銀行危機下所代表的各種總體經濟數據，經過轉化整理後，透過Logistic迴歸模型建立一個迴歸方程式，以了解金融危機的發生與實質匯率、進出口…等其他解釋變數之間的關聯，並利用此模型探測現階段次級房貸風暴對美國可能引發金融危機的機率值，以探討其合理性。 / We find that the frequencies of the financial crises are higher for the past forty years in the world. It is due to the financial liberalization and international financial markets which grow rapidly. Besides, financial crises usually company with some common characteristics such as capital outflow, the depreciation of the foreign exchange, the shock of the stock market, the decreasing of the production and so on. Therefore, in order to understand this financial crisis of the subprime mortgage, this thesis surveys the economic data of developed countries and developing countries from 1970s and figures out the performances of these countries under balance-of -payments crises or banking crisis. We use the logistic regression model and transform the data to construct a regression model. After understanding the relationship between the explaining variables, we use this model to predict the probability of possible financial crisis in U.S. under the subprime mortgage crisis and then discuss the rationality of those predicted values.

The objective of this study is to consider the credit channel operation under a small open economy by including the banking sector and money in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. This study examines the role of the banking sector in a small open economy and the impact of the degree of economic openness. In the steady state analysis, we find that the banking sector’s efficiency and the degree of the openness of an economy will affect the equilibrium. The dynamic analyses show the exchange rate movement amplifies the responses of the economy to exogenous shocks.

Cikliškas ekonominis augimas yra natūralus ir neišvengiamas reiškinys, tačiau kuo mažesnės šių ekonominių ciklų svyravimo amplitudės, tuo patrauklesnis šalies ūkis yra. Didžiausi ekonominiai sunkumai šalis ištinka tuomet, kai šalyje įvyksta finansų krizės, kurioms pastaruoju metu dažniausiai pasireiškia kainų burbulo sprogimu. Dabartinė finansų krizė, prasidėjusi nuo antrinių būsto paskolų krizės JAV, sprogus nekilnojamo turto kainų burbului, išsiplėtė per visą pasaulį, kur ji neišvengiamai pareikalavo aukų: žlugo du didžiausi pasaulyje investiciniai bankai Lehman Brothers ir Merill Lynch, du didžiausi JAV hipotekos bankai Fannie Mae ir Freddie Mac, stipriai nukrito visų pasaulio akcijų indeksai. Akivaizdu, jog pasaulis supranta šios problemos mastą ir galimas pasekmes, kadangi XX a. tokių krizių jau buvo, jos stipriai paveikė to meto ekonominį bei politinį regionų kursą. Tačiau dabar šalių ekonomikos yra žymiai labiau susijusios, todėl būsimos šios krizės pasekmės bus gerokai didesnės. Įdomu, kaip tokiomis sąlygomis bankai bei kitos finansų institucijos tvarko turimus aktyvus finansų rinkose, kyla klausimas ar geresnio turto diversifikavimo siekis netaps finansų rinkų griūties priežastimi. Tyrimo objektas – vertybinių vertybinių popierių rinka finansinių krizių laikotarpiu. Darbo tikslas – išnagrinėjus ir apibendrinus mokslinę – teorinę literatūrą, suformuoti vertybinių popierių portfelį apsaugotą nuo ciklinių ekonominių svyravimų. Išsikeltą tikslą padeda pasiekti... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Cyclical economical growth is natural and unavoidable phenomenon, at the same time the less amplitudes of economical cycles fluctuations are, the more attractive economy of a country is. Countries sustain ultimate difficulties when financial crises happen in a certain country. Latterly such crises mostly come into play as the prices bubble burst. The current financial crisis started from the crisis of secondary dwelling credits in the USA. After prices bubble burst it has spread worldwide and unavoidably claimed following victims: crashed two most famous underwriting banks of the world Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, two biggest mortgage banks of the USA Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, substantially fell down all stock indexes. It is evident that the world realizes the extent of this problem and probable results because similar crises had place during XX century. They impacted on economical and political regional course of that time rather strongly. But modern economies of various countries are involved in more noticeable degree, so forthcoming consequences of this crisis will be rather heavier. It is interesting how in such circumstances banks and other financial institutions manage their assets in financial markets. Also the question is whether an object of the better property diversification wouldn’t become the ground for a financial markets fall. Research object – stock market during financial crisis period. Purpose of this study is to explore and summarize theoretical... [to full text]

There has been much hype in vocational and academic circles surrounding the emergence of web 2.0 or social media; however, relatively little work was dedicated to substantiating the actual concept of web 2.0. Many have dismissed it as not deserving of this new title, since the term web 2.0 assumes a certain interpretation of web history, including enough progress in certain direction to trigger a succession [i.e. web 1.0 → web 2.0]. Others provided arguments in support of this development, and there has been a considerable amount of enthusiasm in the literature. Much research has been busy evaluating current use of web 2.0, and analysis of the user generated content, but an objective and thorough assessment of what web 2.0 really stands for has been to a large extent overlooked. More recently the idea of collective intelligence facilitated via web 2.0, and its potential applications have raised interest with researchers, yet a more unified approach and work in the area of collective intelligence is needed. This thesis identifies and critically evaluates a wider context for the web 2.0 environment, and what caused it to emerge; providing a rich literature review on the topic, a review of existing taxonomies, a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the concept itself, an investigation of the collective intelligence potential that emerges from application usage. Finally, a framework for harnessing collective intelligence in a more systematic manner is proposed. In addition to the presented results, novel methodologies are also introduced throughout this work. In order to provide interesting insight but also to illustrate analysis, a case study of the recent financial crisis is considered. Some interesting results relating to the crisis are revealed within user generated content data, and relevant issues are discussed where appropriate.

Rating agencies provide service by offering information about different kinds of securities and/or investment opportunities. This paper addresses questions often asked during the 2008 U.S. financial crisis: Why did no one see this coming? Why were all the explanations given afterward, not given before as precautions? Or if they were given before, why did nobody listen? Using Giddens’ idea of disembedded systems [Giddens A (1991a) The Consequences of Modernity (Polity Press, Cambridge, UK)], the paper describes and frames the phenomenon of U.S. financial crisis and the role of rating agencies in particular as a disembedded service system. Hereby it offers an explanation of the crises in contrast to the common incentive-oriented or moralizing perspectives. The paper shows that the U.S. financial crisis emerged from a disembedded service system, a simulacrum of ratings, which after a while was no more connected to the reality of securities. Information-providing service systems are in danger to become simulacra, and with it they can disembed. The paper offers a new insightful perspective on how to analyze and understand information-providing service systems and hence offers a perspective to avoid crises based on disembedded systems. This is the first paper to our knowledge to analyze information-providing service systems based on Giddens’ theory of abstract disembedded systems. It provides a new understanding of information-providing service systems that can help to avoid crises based on disembedded systems.

Cette thèse a pour objet l'évaluation du risque de crédit par une approche comportementale dans un contexte d'information asymétrique et de rationalité limitée. Nous cherchons à travers cette analyse, à concilier les « experts métiers » et les statisticiens, en intégrant le comportement humain dans la conception des outils quantitatifs d'évaluation du risque de crédit, en vue d'optimisation de la gestion de ce risque.L'évaluation du risque de crédit est basée sur des modèles et techniques statistiques de plus en plus avancées. Nous citons à titre d'exemple les modèles du Crédit Metrics et JP Morgan, le modèle KMV et le modèle Crédit Portfolio de Mekinsey ou encore les modèles de scoring introduits pour évaluer la qualité du risque des emprunteurs. Plusieurs travaux soulignent l'intérêt de ces modèles quantitatifs. En effet, Scot FRAME et al, ont montré que le recours aux modèles de scoring contribue effectivement à réduire le coût d'information dans les grandes banques américaines. Les résultats de ces modèles dépendent de la réalisation des facteurs de risque spécifiques à chaque emprunteur et de facteurs de risque systémique. Cependant, la crise financière actuelle a mis en lumière la défaillance de ces modèles, aussi bien les modèles théoriques de notation que les modèles opérationnels utilisés par les praticiens, dans l'évaluation du risque de crédit. Toutes ces constructions n'ont pas su intégrer parfaitement l'ensemble de l'information et traiter la complexité d'interactions entre les variables déterminant le risque car elles sont basées sur des techniques purement statistiques qui ne savent représenter que des relations linéaires entre le risque de défaut et les variables qui en sont à l'origine sans prendre en compte le comportement du gestionnaire du risque crédit, dans l'optimisation de sa gestion. Etant données les limites de l'approche quantitative, nous avons convergé vers une approche comportementale qui concilie les techniques statistiques et le comportement humain basée sur la prise en compte et la validation collective des règles de décision émergeant des discussions et confrontations. Cette approche comportementale qui prend en compte la rationalité des décideurs à travers un modèle expert nous permettra d'une part de construire un cadre d'analyse normatif permettant d'identifier et d'évaluer le risque de crédit et d'autre part intégrer ces règles dans les systèmes de décisions opérationnels.Notre recherche a un intérêt multiple. Elle apporte un éclairage théorique sur l'optimisation de la décision des banques, dans un contexte d'incertitude, à travers un modèle portant à la fois sur le caractère quantitatif des modèles d'évaluation du risque de crédit et le comportement humain. L'évaluation du risque de crédit à travers notre approche permettra également de déterminer le montant de capital économique nécessaire à la couverture du risque de crédit. Ainsi, elle permettra aux banques de mettre en place une allocation optimale des fonds propres et une tarification adéquate des crédits basée sur une évaluation précise du risque de crédit. Ce qui porte un grand intérêt aux banques et aux clients aussi. / This thesis focuses on the assessment of credit risk with a behavioral approach in a context of asymmetric information and bounded rationality. We seek through this analysis, to reconcile the "business experts" and statisticians, incorporating human behavior into the design of tools for quantitative assessment of credit risk in order to optimize the management of this risk.The assessment of credit risk is based on models and statistical techniques more advanced. We cite as examples of models JP Morgan Credit Metrics, model and KMV's Portfolio Credit Model Mekinsey or scoring models introduced to assess the quality of the risk of borrowers. Several studies underline the importance of these quantitative models. Indeed, Scot FRAME and AL showed that the use of scoring models is effective in reducing the cost of information in large U.S. banks. The results of these models depend on the realization of the risk factors specific to each borrower and systemic risk factors. However, the current financial crisis has highlighted the failure of these models, both theoretical models that rating business models used by practitioners in assessing credit risk. All these constructions have not been able to integrate fully all the information and treat the complexity of interactions between variables determining the risk because they are based on purely statisti cal techniques who can represent the linear relationships between risk default and the variables that are at the origin without taking into account the behavior of credit risk manager, in optimizing its management.Given the limitations of the quantitative approach, we have converged on a behavioural approach that combines statistical techniques and human behaviour based on consideration and validation of collective decision rules emerging from the discussions and confrontations. This behavioural approach that takes into account the rationality of decision makers through an expert model we will firstly build a normative framework for analysis to identify and assess credit risk and also integrate these rules systems in operational decisions.Our research has a substantial multiple. It sheds light on the theoretical optimization of the decision of the banks in a context of uncertainty through a model bearing both on the quantitative assessment models of credit risk and human behavior. The assessment of credit risk through our approach will also determine the amount of capital necessary to cover credit risk. Thus, it will allow banks to establish an optimal allocation of capital and adequate pricing of loans based on an accurate assessment of credit risk. This brings great interest to banks and customers too.