Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007

This thesis examines the impact of institutions, especially the financial institutions, on international trade and foreign direct investments. The first four chapters study the financial institutions and their impact on trade and international specialization. Specifically, the first chapter examines these financial institutions and the determinants of their level of development. The second chapter examines how finance impacts bilateral trade. The third chapter builds a theoretical model and aims to explain the impact of finance on the sectoral trade as a function of the degree of financial intensity of each sector. The fourth chapter analyzes the heterogeneous impact of finance on the different manufacturing sectors. The last chapter of the thesis uses the term "institution" in a broader sense and studies theoretically and empirically whether the similarities and differences in institutional environments across countries explain the international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI).

This thesis focused on the consequences of remittance inflows in developing countries. The first partexplored the causal impacts of remittances on some indicators of aggregate welfare while the secondpart examined the effects of remittances on public policy. Several results emerged. First, remittanceinflows help reduce the proportion of individuals selling low wages and this effect is stronger in acontext of low level of financial development, high macroeconomic instability and less unpredictableremittances (Chapter 1). Second, remittances have a robust stabilizing impact on the privateconsumption. However, this effect tends to decrease with the levels of remittance inflows and financialdevelopment. Moreover, remittance-dependent economies seem to be strongly sheltered against thedamaging effects of various types of shocks affecting consumption (Chapter 2). In Chapter 3, theresults highlighted that remittance inflows dampen the positive effect of natural disasters on the outputgrowth volatility. However, this impact was strongly reduced as the level of remittances increased.The second part of the thesis revealed interesting results regarding the effects of remittance inflows onpublic policy. First, remittance inflows reduce the insurance role played by the governmentconsumption in more open economies and this effect is more likely to hold when remittances exhibit acountercyclical behavior (Chapter 4). In Chapter 5, the results showed that the fiscal retrenchmentinduced by remittance inflows, is particularly marked for the public education and health spending incountries characterized by various types of governance problems. Finally, the thesis showed that theeffects of remittances do not only concern the expenditure side but also the revenue side. Remittancesare more likely to increase the fiscal space in receiving economies that rely on the value added taxsystem. In these countries, remittance inflows help increase both the level and the stability of thegovernment tax revenue ratio (Chapter 6).

Submitted by Fernanda Corrêa Fernandes (ffernandes@fgvmail.br) on 2017-06-22T21:17:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Arq.pdf: 1074006 bytes, checksum: 54d5b0fe4ae8e8358bfb2a68be8a60cb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-06-27T14:31:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Arq.pdf: 1074006 bytes, checksum: 54d5b0fe4ae8e8358bfb2a68be8a60cb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-04T19:21:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Arq.pdf: 1074006 bytes, checksum: 54d5b0fe4ae8e8358bfb2a68be8a60cb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-26 / This thesis is composed by two chapters. In the first one, I develop a framework to quantify the role of sectoral heterogeneity, with regard to credit access, in explaining the effects of financial integration. Financial frictions generate a misallocation of resources, implying a low total factor productivity and output per worker in emerging economies. Given the existence of sectoral heterogeneity in credit access, these frictions also have disproportionate effects on sectoral variables, as well as on exchange rate. These elements are able to explain some development regularities, as the higher relative price of tradable goods and the relative unproductive tradable goods sector in poor countries. Moreover, I show that domestic and external financial integration have different impacts on the economy. While the former is vital to reduce the misallocation of resources, the last is crucial to reduce the domestic interest rate and stimulate a deeper engagement of entrepreneurs in real activity. I quantify these results and show that financial integration has nontrivial effects on aggregate/sector-level productivity, capital accumulation and output per worker. In the second chapter, in turn, I analyse the propagation of shocks throughout a financial network, identifying the relation between heterogeneity of institutions and the resilience of the system. I distinguish banks according to their size and degree of centrality in order to form a core-periphery network, similar to those empirically observed. Regarding the effects of unexpected shocks, I argue that connections work as a way of propagation of losses and prove the possibility of contagion in equilibrium. Unlike the intuitive perception, I point out that a gap between the size of central and peripheral agents is required for the former to achieve the expected systemic relevance. When it occurs, the presence of core banks is crucial for easing the propagation of direct losses, as well as for protecting the system against peripheral shocks. The policy implications are clear in such cases. Monetary authorities do not need to rescue peripheral banks in order to avoid contagion. I conclude by analysing the relative resilience of some networks. I show that the core-periphery network is more resilient than the circular one. Since the last is mostly used, the contagion risk might be overestimated in literature. / Essa tese é composta por dois capítulos. No primeiro, desenvolvo um modelo para quantificar o papel da heterogeneidade setorial, em relação ao acesso a crédito, na determinação dos efeitos da integração financeira. Fricções financeiras geram má-alocação de recursos, resultando em baixa produtividade e produto por trabalhador em economias emergentes. Dada a existência de heterogeneidade setorial no acesso a crédito, essas fricções apresentam efeitos desproporcionais em variáveis setoriais, assim como na taxa de câmbio. Esses elementos são capazes de explicar regularidades do desenvolvimento, como o elevado preço relativo dos bens comercializáveis e a baixa produtividade relativa desse setor nos países em desenvolvimento. Adicionalmente, mostro que a integração doméstica e externa apresentam diferentes impactos na economia. Enquanto a primeira é vital para reduzir a má-alocação de recursos, a segunda é crucial para reduzir a taxa de juros doméstica e estimular um maior engajamento dos agentes na economia real. Quantifico esses resultados e mostro que a integração financeira apresenta efeitos não triviais na produtividade agregada/setorial, na acumulação de capital e no produto por trabalhador dos países. No segundo capítulo, por sua vez, analiso a propagação de choques por uma rede financeira, identificando a relação entre a heterogeneidade das instituições financeiras e a resiliência do sistema. Os bancos são diferenciados de acordo com seu tamanho e grau de centralidade na rede, de modo a formar uma rede núcleo-periferia similar às empiricamente observadas. Em relação aos efeitos de choques inesperados, mostro que as conexões funcionam como meio de propagação de perdas e provo a possibilidade de contágio em equilíbrio. Em contraste com a visão intuitiva, mostro que é necessária uma lacuna entre o tamanho do banco núcleo e periférico para que o primeiro alcance a relevância sistêmica esperada. Nesse caso, a presença de bancos núcleo é crucial para a propagação de choques que os atinjam diretamente, assim como para a proteção do sistema contra choques periféricos. As implicações de política são claras nesse caso. A autoridade monetária não precisa resgatar bancos periféricos para evitar o contágio. Por fim, analiso a resiliência relativa de algumas redes financeiras. Mostro que a rede núcleo-periferia é mais resiliente do que a rede circular. Como a última é utilizada recorrentemente, o risco de contágio pode estar superestimado na literatura.

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is a controversial issue. For developing countries, empirical studies have provided mixed result. This study seeks to empirically explore the relationship and the causal link between financial development and economic growth in two sub-Saharan African countries between 1970 and 2006. The empirical investigation is carried out using time methods and the five most commonly used indicators of financial development in the literature. However, the causal relationship was carried out using two different methods which are the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing (ARDL) and the vector error correction model (VECM). Using this above methodology the study first found that in both countries there is a positive and long-term relationship between all the indicators of financial development and economic growth which was proxied by the real per capita GDP. With respect to the causality test, the two methods used provide mixed results especially in South Africa. In Cameroon the study found that financial development causes economic growth using the two methods, whereas in South Africa economic growth causes financial development when the VECM method is used, while there is an independence relationship between the two variables in South Africa when using ARDL. / Economics / M.Comm. (Economics)

Malgré la diversité des études théoriques et empiriques, la problématique de la relation compte capital – croissance économique reste une question controversée. L’objet de ce travail de recherche consiste donc à expliciter la nature d’une telle relation dans les économies de la région MENA, tout en tenant compte de la qualité institutionnelle. Dans ce contexte, les différentes estimations ont été effectuées par la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM), sur la période allant de 1986 à 2012, pour 11 pays. Les résultats montrent que la corruption et la responsabilité démocratique influencent négativement la croissance économique si la politique de la libéralisation du compte capital est adoptée. Cependant, le terme d'interaction entre la qualité bureaucratique et l'ouverture financière stimulent positivement la croissance économique. Ces résultats suggèrent alors que les avantages de la libéralisation du compte capital sont conditionnés par les facteurs institutionnels. De ce fait, notre thèse contribue aux débats politiques récents sur les mérites et les démérites de la libéralisation du compte capital. En ce qui concerne le lien entre la libéralisation du compte capital et le développement financier en Tunisie, les différentes estimations ont été effectuées par l’approche autorégressive à retards échelonnés (ARDL), sur la période allant de 1986 à 2014. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’effet positif de l’ouverture sur le développement financier est bien plus important à long terme qu’à court terme. Par ailleurs, les résultats confirment l’impact négatif de la corruption sur le système financier tunisien. / Despite the diversity of theoretical and empirical studies, the question of capital account–economic growth relationship remains a controversial issue. This research aims to complete the existing evidence focusing on MENA countries, while taking into account the institutional quality. In this context, various estimates were made by generalized method of moments (GMM) over the period of 1986–2012 for 11 countries. The results show that corruption and democratic accountability have a significant and negative impact on economic growth if capital account liberalization is enacted. However, the interaction term of bureaucracy quality and financial openness has a significant and positive impact on economic growth. These findings therefore show that the benefits of capital account liberalization are not unconditional, but are likely to depend upon the environment in which the liberalization occurs. Hence, our thesis contributes to the recent policy debates on the merits and demerits of capital account liberalization. As regards the link between capital account liberalization and financial development in Tunisia, the various estimates were made by the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) over the period 1986 to 2014. The results show that the positive effect of opening on financial development is much more important in the long term than in the short term. Moreover, the results confirm the negative impact of corruption on the Tunisian financial system.

Submitted by ALISHAN KHAN (alishank@gmail.com) on 2018-08-15T19:48:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO ALISHAN KHAN.pdf: 1255135 bytes, checksum: 192d7cc249526c248b352510678166b5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-08-15T19:57:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO ALISHAN KHAN.pdf: 1255135 bytes, checksum: 192d7cc249526c248b352510678166b5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-08-16T12:21:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO ALISHAN KHAN.pdf: 1255135 bytes, checksum: 192d7cc249526c248b352510678166b5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T12:21:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO ALISHAN KHAN.pdf: 1255135 bytes, checksum: 192d7cc249526c248b352510678166b5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-09 / Esse trabalho busca estudar a relação entre o recente desenvolvimento do mercado financeiro brasileiro e seus possíveis impactos na distribuição de renda e na pobreza. Para isso, o estudo se baseou no Índice de Gini de todos os Estados da Federação e sua influência por duas óticas de expansão do mercado financeiro: (i) evolução dos créditos dados às Pessoas Físicas e Jurídicas em cada Estado de 2004 a 2014; e (ii) evolução do Crédito Privado e de M3 ponderados pelo PIB de Intermediação Financeira de cada Estado de 1995 a 2009. Tais dados foram trabalhados em regressões dissociadas utilizando Dados em Painel por Método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, assim como foram realizados Testes de Robustez utilizando o Método dos Momentos Generalizados. Adicionalmente, foram feitas as mesmas abordagens para se analisar o impacto dessas variáveis financeiras no percentual da população abaixo da linha da pobreza, bem como na participação dos 20% mais pobres sobre a renda total. Em grande parte dos resultados obtidos, as variáveis financeiras tiveram impacto significativo nas variáveis sociais exploradas de forma a, eventualmente, reduzir a concentração de renda, reduzir a população abaixo da linha da pobreza e aumentar a renda dos 20% mais pobres. / This study intends to assess the relationship between the recent Brazilian financial development and its potential impacts in the income distribution and poverty. Given this, the thesis it was based on the Gini Index of each State of Brazil and its behavior through two approaches in terms of financial market expansion: (i) the growth of the total credit disbursed to individuals and to companies in each State from 2004 to 2014; and (ii) the growth of Private Credit and M3 weighted by a multiple of GDP of Financial Intermediation of each State from 1995 to 2009. These data were handled in separate regressions using Panel Data by Ordinary Least Square Method as much as it was added robustness’ tests with Generalized Method of Moments. Additionally, these same approaches were made for the poverty ratio and for the income of the last quintile of population. In most part of results, the financial development coefficient significantly influenced the social variables explored, being able to potentially reduce the income concentration, reduce the poverty ratio and increase the income of the last quintile.

Por que mesmo entre os países com condições econômicas semelhantes o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro é tão diferente? Diversas variáveis políticas e institucionais já foram ressaltadas pela literatura, no entanto desconectadas uma das outras. Esse artigo visa contribuir para a questão fornecendo um modelo que analise as principais variáveis de forma concomitante, tornando endógena a interação entre elas. Para tanto, selecionamos uma amostra de países de renda média alta que compartilham de outras variáveis econômicas centrais e utilizamos o QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis), como método de análise. O estudo conclui que a estabilidade política é a única condição necessária, porém não suficiente. Entre aqueles países estáveis politicamente foi necessário mais um de dois atributos: um alto grau de proteção aos investidores minoritários ou, surpreendentemente, um regime político autocrático. / Why even among countries with similar economic conditions the financial development level is so different? Several political and institutional variables have already been highlighted in the literature, however disconnected from each other. This article aims to contribute to the issue by providing a model to analyze the main variables simultaneously, making endogenous the interaction between them. To achieve this, we selected a sample of middle-income countries who share other core economic variables and use the QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) as the analysis method. The study concludes that political stability is the only necessary condition, but still not sufficient. Those politically stable countries need another one of attributes: a high degree of protection to minority investors or, surprisingly, an autocratic political regime.

In this study, we analyze the impact of financial development and market conditions on investment-cash flow sensitivity during the 2006-2014 for 76 countries. First, the results show a relationship between investment-cash flow sensitivity and an index of financial development and its components. Second, 68 countries are affected by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but only 16 countries exhibit a higher investment-cash flow sensitivity during the crisis. Third, investment-cash flow sensitivity is lower in countries with a larger primary debt market, while the size of the primary equity market has no impact. Finally, analyzing investment-cash flow sensitivity over time, we find lower sensitivity during years associated with higher primary debt market activity. / Neste estudo, analisamos o impacto do desenvolvimento financeiro e das condições de mercado sobre a relação fluxo de caixa-investimento (\"investment-cash flow sensitivity\") para 76 países no período de 2006 a 2014. Primeiro, os resultados mostram que existe relação entre \"investment-cash flow sensitivity\" e o indicador de desenvolvimento financeiro e seus componentes. Segundo, 68 países são afetados pela crise financeira de 2008-2009, mas apenas 16 países apresentam um incremento da relação fluxo de caixa-investimento durante o período de crise. Terceiro, a relação fluxo de caixa-investimento decresce em países com maiores mercados de títulos de dívidas, enquanto o mercado acionário não apresenta efeito sobre o coeficiente. Por fim, ao analisar a relação fluxo de caixa-investimento no tempo, encontramos que o coeficiente decresce na presença de maior atividade de emissões de títulos de dívidas por parte das empresas.