Ces dernières décennies, le monde a vécu des épisodes de forte instabilité financière globale, allantde pair avec un mouvement important de capitaux internationaux. Ce paradoxe remet en question lebien-fondé d’une politique de libéralisation financière internationale et soulève de nombreusescontroverses dont l’issue est à ce jour ambigu. L'objectif de cette thèse est d’apporter une contributionà ce débat actuel. Notre démarche s'articule autour de trois grandes parties. D'abord, nous analysonsl'impact de la globalisation financière sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement(PED). Ensuite, dans la deuxième partie, nous étudions le rôle que pourrait jouer la libre circulationdes capitaux internationaux comme un déterminant du déclenchement des crises bancaires dans lesPED. Ceci nous amène dans la troisième partie à analyser les réformes réglementaires proposéespour pallier à ce risque de crises bancaires et tirer profit de la globalisation financière (GF).Les principaux résultats de la thèse peuvent être résumés comme suit : (1) La GF agit positivementsur la croissance économique et la stabilité du secteur bancaire, ces effets étant conditionnés par lanature des flux de capitaux échangés. (2) Les pays en développement peuvent bénéficier de lalibéralisation des mouvements de capitaux s’ils ont atteint un certain seuil de développementinstitutionnel. (3) Le contrôle des capitaux permet aux pays en développement d’assurer un niveau destabilité financière soutenu. Les implications de politiques économiques sont : (a) Les PED ont intérêtà améliorer leurs cadres institutionnels pour tirer profit de la globalisation financière. (b) Les pays endéveloppement doivent renforcer leur cadre règlementaire et mettre en place une politique de contrôledes capitaux qui ciblerait ceux à l’origine de l’instabilité économique et financière. (c) Un tel contrôlene doit pas se faire seulement sur les engagements envers l’étranger mais aussi sur les avoirs. / Over the last few decades, the world has experienced episodes of global financial instability combinedwith significant shifts of international capital movements. This paradox questions the merits of theinternational financial liberalization and raises many controversies whose outcome is inconclusive todate. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to this current debate. The approach is structured aroundthree main parts. First, the impact of the financial globalization (FG) on the economic growth isanalyzed for developing countries. Then, in the second part, we examine the potential role of freemovement of international capital as a major factor responsible for the onset of banking crisis indeveloping countries. This analysis leads us to the third part in which we analyze the regulatoryreforms, proposed to mitigate the risk of banking crisis and to benefit from financial globalization.The main outcomes are summarized as follows: (1)The financial globalization acts positively oneconomic growth and the stability of the banking sector. Furthermore, these effects are conditioned bythe nature of capital flows. (2) The developing countries can benefit from the liberalization ofinternational capital flows, if they have reached a certain threshold level of institutional development.(3) The capital controls allow the developing countries to ensure a sustainable level of financialstability. The economic policy implications are: (a) The developing countries may find it beneficial todevelop their institutional framework to benefit from financial liberalization. (b) the developing countriesmust strengthen their regulatory framework and set up a capital control policy that will target theorigins of economic and financial instability. (c) Such a control should not only be exercised on foreignliabilities but also on domestic assets.

本論文以「美元霸權」為核心，討論美國做為貨幣霸權對於國際金融體系的影響。首先介紹霸權穩定論之理論內涵與發展，經過重新檢視霸權穩定論的思想內涵後，筆者發現霸權穩定論有許多缺陷並提出修正。其次，討論美元霸權在布列敦森林體系瓦解之後的形成與運作。美元霸權的起源是1971年尼克森將美元與黃金脫鉤，之後，經由1974年「石油-美元計價機制」與金融全球化進一步鞏固美元的霸權地位。最後，以「石油金融化」現象為例，說明美國是如何結合「石油-美元計價機制」與「金融全球化」來鞏固美元霸權地位，最後也導致國際金融體系的不穩定。 本文認為，美國將石油市場變成了一個大型賭場。石油價格暴漲暴跌將對世界經濟，尤其是發展中國家帶來不利影響。「石油-美元計價機制」是一種「誘捕」，它強化了從屬國家對美元的依賴。憑著不對稱的金融相互依賴，美國穩居霸權地位。然而，一個穩定的國際金融體系不能只靠主導國家權力的使用，一個階層狀態的國際關係，還必須有從屬國家配合的意願。隨著「二次大戰效應」的消失，美國無法再以國內市場的龐大需求滿足發展中國家的出口導向政策，因此，身為主導國家的美國必須運用國際金融發展的不對稱性，提供從屬國家支持美元霸權的誘因，此種不對稱性的互賴關係也是美元霸權的權力來源。此外，霸權權力具有自我毀滅的傾向。在金融全球化的過程中，政府的權威不斷被削弱，導致政治反應能力遠遠落後於經濟力量的發展。若美國不採取行動管理國際金融體系，取得主導國家的正當性，則衰落是不可避免。

La présente thèse tente de savoir s’il est opportun pour les pays en développement les moins avancés de s’engager davantage dans le processus de globalisation financière pour promouvoir leur croissance, et si ce processus influence les effets des instabilités, financière et monétaire, sur cette dernière. A cette fin, la thèse se déroule en trois parties. Avant d’examiner le cadre théorique de la globalisation financière, la première partie esquisse sa genèse avec en arrière-fond la recherche d’une réponse au problème de sa régulation. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la littérature sur les effets de la globalisation financière sur la croissance, afin d’en tirer les enseignements pour une étude de 72 pays en développement à revenu bas de 1972 à 2011. La troisième partie se focalise sur les impacts de la globalisation financière et des deux instabilités considérées isolément, puis en interaction avec la globalisation sur la croissance à travers deux études empiriques basées sur le même cadre spatio-temporel que l’étude précédente. Ces dernières sont précédées par une revue des relations entre la globalisation financière, l’instabilité financière puis monétaire et la croissance, avec une analyse théorique de l’instabilité financière. Il en ressort que les instabilités, financière et monétaire, ont des effets négatifs sur la croissance, tandis que la globalisation financière, et en particulier la globalisation par l’investissement contrairement à celle par l’endettement, promeut les bienfaits des politiques économiques et du commerce extérieur, en plus de son effet positif direct sur la croissance même en présence des deux instabilités dont elle diminue les effets négatifs. / This thesis examines whether or not it is beneficial for least developed countries to engage more in the process of financial globalization in pursuit of their economic growth, and if this process influences the effects of financial and monetary instability on the latter. This thesis is divided into three parts. Before examining the theoretical framework of financial globalization, the first part sketches its genesis on a background of the research for an answer to the problem of its regulation. The second part focuses on the literature on the impact of financial globalization on growth. This is done in order to draw lessons for the establishment of a study covering 72 low-income developing countries over the period 1972-2011. The third part centers on the impact on economic growth of financial globalization and the two aforementioned types of instability, discussed both separately and in conjunction. Evidence is provided by two empirical studies based on the same spatio-temporal framework as the previous one. These studies are preceded by a review of the literature on the relationship between financial globalization, financial and then monetary instability and growth, in addition to a theoretical analysis of financial instability. This illustrates that financial and monetary instability have negative effects on growth, while financial globalization and in particular investment-globalization, unlike indebtedness-globalization, promotes the benefits of macroeconomic policies and international trade. This can be find in addition to its direct positive effect on growth, even in the presence of the two instabilities of which it reduces the negative effects.

In the last three decades of the twentieth century and the first of the internal forces of the capitalist system have changed in such a way, that show has achieved a new kind of capitalism that currently in force. It is a type of financial capitalism - with the globalization of high finance as its ultimate expression. This new corporate arrangement is characterized by chronic instability that leads to many problems on a global scale. From which highlights the supremacy of the financial sphere on the production. This supremacy is a destabilizing component of investment, the financing of productive activities, employment and income. Moreover, dismantled the National States and its ability to intervene in order to bring discipline and order to the system. National states were also affected in their capacity to create and effectively implement policies aiming at full employment and better generation and distribution of income and wealth. From the middle of last century, historical and structural forces emerged and were expanded in contemporary capitalism. This junction with the structural history has made possible the dominance of finance mainly through their higher aspect: the financial globalization (Chapter I). The effort of this dissertation focuses on the argument that the supremacy of finance is a characteristic inherent in the modus operandi of capitalism and that if the system does not suffer the imposition of rules and discipline, crises and instability are increasing, and entail more harm to society as a whole. To consolidate this argument, the study draws on the analysis of three thinkers who, in their conceptions and theoretical formulations, pointed to a clear and endogenous tendency in capitalism for the supremacy of finance. Marx's analysis of the actual movements of capital and its developments culminating in the absolute form of wealth expressed by the fictitious capital (Chapter II); Keynes with his revolutionary interpretation of an economy that is essentially monetary and in which the agents, faced with the expectations arising from an uncertain future, opt for more liquid assets, thus depressing the investment and productive activity (Chapter III), and Minsky with his hypothesis of financial fragility, which is a result of a complex economy that needs funding for the growth in a world characterized by unpredictability of economic activity over time (Chapter IV). Are the theoretical and analytical here used to undergird and support the argument that the supremacy of finance is an inherent feature of the development of the capitalist system of production. / Nas últimas três décadas do século XX e na primeira deste, as forças internas do sistema capitalista se alteraram de um tal modo, que denotam ter surgido um novo tipo de capitalismo que atualmente vigora. É um capitalismo de tipo financeiro tendo a globalização das altas finanças como sua expressão máxima. Este novo arranjo societário é caracterizado por uma instabilidade crônica que acarreta inúmeros problemas em escala global. Dentre os quais, destaca-se a supremacia da esfera financeira sobre a produtiva. Tal supremacia é uma componente desestabilizadora do investimento, do financiamento das atividades produtivas, do emprego e da renda. Além do mais, desarticulou os Estados Nacionais e sua capacidade de intervenção visando dar disciplina e ordem ao sistema. Os Estados Nacionais também foram afetados na sua condição de criarem e efetivamente implementarem políticas objetivando o pleno emprego e a melhor geração e distribuição da renda e da riqueza. A partir de meados do século passado, forças histórico-estruturais surgiram e se ampliaram no capitalismo contemporâneo. Uma tal junção do estrutural com o histórico tornou possível à supremacia das finanças, principalmente por intermédio de sua vertente maior: a globalização financeira (Capítulo I). O esforço desta Dissertação está centrado no argumento de que a supremacia das finanças é uma característica inerente ao próprio modo de funcionamento do capitalismo e que, se o sistema não sofrer a imposição de regras e disciplina, as crises e a instabilidade serão cada vez mais intensas e acarretarão mais males para o conjunto da sociedade. Para embasar este argumento, o estudo se vale das análises de três pensadores que, nas suas concepções e formulações teóricas, apontaram para uma nítida e endógena tendência no capitalismo para a supremacia das finanças. Marx com a análise dos movimentos reais do capital e seus desdobramentos que culminam na forma absoluta da riqueza expressa pelo capital fictício (Capítulo II); Keynes com a sua revolucionária interpretação de uma economia que é essencialmente monetária e na qual os agentes, ao se depararem com as expectativas advindas de um futuro incerto, optam por ativos mais líquidos, deprimindo assim, o investimento e a atividade produtiva (Capítulo III); e Minsky com sua hipótese da fragilidade financeira, que é conseqüência de uma economia complexa que necessita de financiamento para o seu crescimento em um mundo caracterizado pela imprevisibilidade da atividade econômica ao longo do tempo (Capítulo IV). São os referenciais teórico-analíticos aqui utilizados para embasar e sustentar o argumento de que a supremacia das finanças é uma característica imanente do desenvolvimento do sistema capitalista de produção. / Mestre em Economia