Atualmente, o ambiente industrial é caracterizado pela intensa globalização, competição entre cadeias de suprimentos, manutenção das competências centrais e terceirização dos demais serviços. Desta forma, a gestão das relações entre os agentes independentes da cadeia de suprimentos e do processo de aquisição são fatores potenciais para o aumento da competitividade empresarial. No contexto da construção civil, a seleção adequada dos parceiros de negócios é um elemento fundamental para o sucesso dos projetos, uma vez que uma grande proporção das atividades podem ser sub-contratadas e possuem relação de precedência entre si. Os suprimentos representam um percentual significativo dos custos das construções, 60%, dado que demonstra o potencial de lucratividade passível de ser atingida ao estruturar o processo de seleção de fornecedores na construção civil. Seleções baseadas no preço prejudicam os sub-empreiteiros e fornecedores mais responsáveis na concorrência, contribuindo para a queda do nível de desempenho e redução da eficiência global do projeto, uma vez que as ineficiências são somadas ao longo da cadeia. Através da estruturação do processo de seleção de fornecedores, é possível mitigar os riscos de suprimentos oriundos de falhas destes contratados ao longo da relação. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver uma sistemática para seleção de fornecedores críticos, considerando diversos critérios além do preço, entre qualitativos e quantitativos. A abordagem visa também, a eliminação da subjetividade do processo e a extração do melhor fornecedor de forma objetiva. Para tanto, foram definidas dimensões competitivas para avaliar os fornecedores e posteriormente foram utilizados dois métodos quantitativos, Teoria dos Conjuntos Difusos (TCD) e Análise de Componentes Principais (ACP), para selecionar o melhor fornecedor dentre as alternativas, com base na avaliação de múltiplos agentes. / Currently, the industrial environment is characterized by intense globalization, competition between supply chains, maintenance of core competencies and outsourcing of other services. Thus, the management of relationships between independent agents of the supply chain and the procurement process are potential factors for increasing enterprise competitiveness. In the construction context, the proper selection of business partners is a key element for the success of projects, since a large proportion of the activities can be sub-contracted and have precedence relationship between them. Supplies represent a significant percentage of the cost of buildings, 60%, information that demonstrates the potential of profitability that can be achieved by structuring the process of supplier selection in the construction industry. Selection based on price take off from competition the sub-contractors and suppliers more responsible, contributing to the decline in the level of performance and reduction in the overall project efficiency, since inefficiencies are summed through the chain. By structuring the supplier selection process, it is possible to mitigate the supply risk arising from failures of these suppliers during the relationship. The objective of this study was to develop a systematic for selection of critical suppliers, considering several criteria other than price, among qualitative and quantitative. The approach also aims at eliminating the subjectivity of the process and the extraction of the best supplier in an objective way. In order to that, competitive dimensions were set to evaluate vendors and subsequently two quantitative methods, Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to select the best supplier among the alternatives based on multiple agents evaluation.

[ES] La eco-innovación se define como el desarrollo de productos y procesos que contribuyen al respeto y avance en ámbito medioambiental, aplicando estrategias hacia la búsqueda de soluciones de diferenciación y posicionamiento en el mercado de manera sostenible. La eco-innovación en clústers industriales tiene como objetivo unir competitividad y sostenibilidad, convirtiendo a los agentes del clúster en unidades vivas de la economía. Entre las ventajas del clúster se denota la especialización y efecto derrame que, al introducir la eco-innovación, logra mucho más rápido la expansión de ventajas ambientales y beneficios a todas las empresas integradas en este, logrando un equilibrio entre la competencia y la colaboración de actividades eco-innovadoras. El objetivo de este estudio es determinar cuáles son esos determinantes o factores que generar eco-innovación en los clústers industriales. Para el estudio empírico, se escogió el clúster metalmecánico de la ciudad de Barranquilla en Colombia, considerado un clúster artificial o iniciativa clúster, siendo su reto principal mejorar la integración, especialización y competitividad por su carácter único y su importancia en la región. Para desarrollar esta tesis doctoral, tras una detallada revisión de la bibliografía, se plantearon 15 hipótesis, que se analizaron a través de la regresión multivariante y de productos cruzados. Se diseñó y aplicó un cuestionario a 40 empresas del clúster industrial metalmecánico compuesto por 44 preguntas, divididas a su vez en 8 factores. La aplicación de los modelos de regresión permitió comprobar la fiabilidad y validez de los constructos establecidos, pero no la comprobación de las hipótesis propuestas, ya que la consistencia era muy débil; es decir se contaba con resultados asimétricos. Se recurrió entonces al análisis de productos cruzados hacia delante para intentar mejorar la asimetría en el análisis de variables, aunque los resultados seguían siendo poco significativos. Finalmente, se aplicó el análisis cualitativo comparativo FsQCA, que trabaja datos asimétricos y relaciones causales. La aplicación de la técnica FsQCA, permitió establecer un conjunto de combinaciones causales que logran generar altos niveles de eco-innovación. Utilizando el Análisis Cualitativo Comparativo de Conjuntos Difusos (FsQCA), se persigue identificar si existe algún factor que sea condición necesaria para la eco-innovación, así como combinaciones de antecedentes causales capaces de explicar la eco-innovación en clúster industriales. Los resultados conducen a que no existe una condición necesaria por sí misma y que existen diversos conjuntos de soluciones suficientes que conducen a niveles altos y bajos de eco-innovación y varían conforme a lograr resultados de tipo económico, ambiental y de acceso a nuevos mercados para las empresas del clúster. Así, los resultados indican que: demanda, presión competitiva y las políticas, son ingredientes importantes para lograr efectos de innovación ambiental en el clúster, atendiendo al nivel de consistencia en los resultados (90%). Entre los resultados más destacables se observa que, al combinar los factores de capacidad, presión competitiva y desarrollo e implementación de políticas y regulaciones ambientales, se constata una influencia positiva para las empresas del clúster en los aspectos relativos al acceso a nuevos mercados, siendo esta la combinación con mayor consistencia (con un 91% de las cuatro configuraciones suficientes para lograr acceder a nuevos mercados). Por otra parte, para lograr altos niveles de resultados económicos en el clúster se destaca la combinación causal de ausencia de capacidades, cooperación y ausencia de presión competitiva como factores importantes en esta receta. El análisis arroja una consistencia del 87% y es de notar que, aunque existan niveles bajos de capacidades, y competitividad y poca presión competitiva, basta con que exista alto nivel de cooperación entre las empresa / [CA] L'ecoinnovació es defineix com el desenvolupament de productes i processos que contribueixen al respecte i avanç en l'àmbit mediambiental, aplicant estratègies cap a la cerca de solucions de diferenciació i posicionament en el mercat de manera sostenible. L'ecoinnovació en clústers industrials té com objectiu unir competitivitat i sostenibilitat, convertint als agents del clúster en unitats vives de l'economia. Entre els avantatges del clúster es denota l'especialització i efecte vesse que, en introduir l'ecoinnovació, aconsegueix molt més ràpid l'expansió d'avantatges ambientals i beneficis a totes les empreses integrades en aquest, aconseguint un equilibri entre la competència i la col·laboració d'activitats eco-innovadores. L'objectiu d'aquest estudi és determinar quins són aqueixos determinants o factors que generar ecoinnovació en els clústers industrials. Per a l'estudi empíric, es va triar el clúster metalmecánico de la ciutat de Barranquilla a Colòmbia, considerat un clúster artificial o iniciativa clúster, sent el seu repte principal millorar la integració, especialització i competitivitat pel seu caràcter únic i la seua importància a la regió. Per a desenvolupar aquesta tesi doctoral, després d¿una detallada revisió de la bibliografia, es van plantejar 15 hipòtesi, que es van analitzar a través de la regressió multivariant i de productes creuats. Es va dissenyar i va aplicar un qüestionari a 40 empreses del clúster industrial metalmecánico compost per 44 preguntes, dividides al seu torn en 8 factors. L'aplicació dels models de regressió va permetre comprovar la fiabilitat i validesa dels constructes establits, però no la comprovació de les hipòtesis proposades, ja que la consistència era molt feble; és a dir es comptava amb resultats asimètrics. Es va recórrer llavors a l'anàlisi de productes creuats cap avant per a intentar millorar l'asimetria en l'anàlisi de variables, encara que els resultats continuaven sent poc significatius. Finalment, es va aplicar l'anàlisi qualitativa comparativa FsQCA, que treballa dades asimètriques i relacions causals. L'aplicació de la tècnica FsQCA, va permetre establir un conjunt de combinacions causals que aconsegueixen generar alts nivells d'ecoinnovació. Utilitzant l'Anàlisi Qualitativa Comparativa de Conjunts Difusos (FsQCA), es persegueix identificar si existeix algun factor que siga condició necessària per a l'ecoinnovació, així com combinacions d'antecedents causals capaços d'explicar l'ecoinnovació en clúster industrials. Els resultats condueixen al fet que no existeix una condició necessària per si mateixa i que existeixen diversos conjunts de solucions suficients que condueixen a nivells alts i baixos d'ecoinnovació i varien conforme a aconseguir resultats de tipus econòmic, ambiental i d'accés a nous mercats per a les empreses del clúster. Així, els resultats indiquen que: demanda, pressió competitiva i les polítiques, són ingredients importants per a aconseguir efectes d'innovació ambiental en el clúster, atés el nivell de consistència en els resultats (90%). Entre els resultats més destacables s'observa que, en combinar els factors de capacitat, pressió competitiva i desenvolupament i implementació de polítiques i regulacions ambientals, es constata una influència positiva per a les empreses del clúster en els aspectes relatius a l'accés a nous mercats, sent aquesta la combinació amb major consistència (amb un 91% de les quatre configuracions suficients per a aconseguir accedir a nous mercats). D'altra banda, per a aconseguir alts nivells de resultats econòmics en el clúster es destaca la combinació causal d'absència de capacitats, cooperació i absència de pressió competitiva com a factors importants en aquesta recepta. / [EN] Eco-innovation is defined as the development of products and processes that contribute to respect and progress in the environmental field, applying strategies towards the search for differentiation solutions and positioning in the market in a sustainable way. Eco-innovation in industrial clusters has the objective of uniting competitiveness and sustainability, of converting the agents of the cluster into living units of the economy. Among the advantages of the cluster is the specialization and spillover effect, which by introducing eco-innovation achieves much faster the expansion of environmental advantages and benefits to all the companies attached to it, achieving a balance between competition and a high collaboration of eco-innovative activities. The objective of this study is to determine which are those determinants or factors that generate eco-innovation in industrial clusters. For the empirical study, the metal-mechanical cluster of the city of Barranquilla in Colombia was chosen. This cluster is considered an artificial cluster or cluster initiative, its main challenge being to improve integration, specialization and competitiveness due to its unique nature and its importance in the region. To develop this study, an eco-innovation model in industrial clusters was proposed, consisting of 15 hypotheses analyzed by multivariate regression and cross products, a questionnaire was designed and applied to 40 companies of the metal-mechanical industrial cluster with 44 questions, divided into 8 factors. The application of the regression models allowed to verify the reliability and validity of the established constructs, but not the verification (acceptance or rejection) of the proposed hypotheses, since the consistency was very weak. In other words, there were asymmetric results, so forward cross-product analysis was used to try to improve the asymmetry in the analysis of variables, but it was still not very significant. Finally, the FsQCA comparative qualitative analysis was used, which works with asymmetric data and causal relationships. The application of FsQCA allowed to establish a set of causal combinations that in combination manage to generate high levels of eco-innovation. Using the Fuzzy Sets Comparative Qualitative Analysis (FsQCA) an attempt was made to identify whether there is any factor that is a necessary condition for cluster eco-innovation, as well as combinations of causal antecedents capable of explaining industrial clustering eco-innovation. The results lead to the fact that there is no necessary condition by itself and that there are several sets of sufficient solutions that lead to high and low levels of eco-innovation and vary according to achieving economic, environmental and access to new markets results for the cluster companies.The results indicate that demand, competitive pressure, and policies due to their level of consistency in results (90%) are important ingredients to achieve environmental innovation effects in the cluster. By combining the factors of capacity, competitive pressure and the development and implementation of environmental policies and regulations, a positive influence is presented for the cluster companies to access new markets; This being the most consistent combination with 91% of the four configurations sufficient to gain access to new markets. On the other hand, to achieve high levels of economic results in the cluster, the causal combination of the absence of capacities, cooperation and the absence of competitive pressure stands out as important factors in this recipe. The analysis shows a consistency of 87% and it is noteworthy that, although there are low levels of skills and competitiveness and little competitive pressure, it is enough that there is a high level of cooperation between the cluster companies to be able to generate economic results. / Mercado Caruso, NN. (2022). Determinantes de eco-innovación en clústers industriales. Una aplicación empírica en el departamento del Atlántico [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/181583 / TESIS

This dissertation aims to apply the configurational perspective to organizational surveys. The studies included in this dissertation demonstrate that an increasingly popular configurational method can be applied to large dataset sizes similar to organizational surveys. This method is called fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). Additionally, the incremental insights of fsQCA are illustrated by taking traditional methods into comparison. At the same time, the presented research addresses current methodological challenges to fsQCA in order to shed light on its application in the context of organizational surveys and to reduce reasons inhibiting researchers to use this method. The first study conceptualized and empirically investigated differently complex interplays of core manageable factors predicting and influencing high levels of affective commitment. Specifically, the results indicate that job design, organizational treatment, leadership, and recognition were consistently found to be essential in terms of incremental, relative, and configurational importance for the management of affective commitment. The second study aims to deepen the understanding of the formation of change-supportive intentions by adopting a configurational perspective. Investigating the theory of planned behavior in a longitudinal setting, the results suggest the combination of high change-related attitude and high change-related perceived behavioral control as the most consistent and reliable solution for fostering high change-supportive intentions. Both the first and second study addressed methodological challenges by adopting robustness tests for large-N fsQCA to increase trustworthiness and reduce sensitivity of the results. Additionally, as required for fsQCA data preparation, recommendations for thresholds were made and different calibration techniques investigated. The third study connects these two studies by performing a simulation on artificial small-N and large-N datasets comparing regression analysis, fsQCA, and its different calibration techniques. In particular, new insights on the joint use of both methods and methodological recommendations on the calibration of fsQCA could be given. In sum, the presented research highlights the applicability of fsQCA to organizational surveys and that a configurational approach can further enrich the understanding of organizations and organizational life.

This thesis makes an original contribution to knowledge in the fi eld of data objects' comparison where the objects are described by attributes of fuzzy or heterogeneous (numeric and symbolic) data types. Many real world database systems and applications require information management components that provide support for managing such imperfect and heterogeneous data objects. For example, with new online information made available from various sources, in semi-structured, structured or unstructured representations, new information usage and search algorithms must consider where such data collections may contain objects/records with di fferent types of data: fuzzy, numerical and categorical for the same attributes. New approaches of similarity have been presented in this research to support such data comparison. A generalisation of both geometric and set theoretical similarity models has enabled propose new similarity measures presented in this thesis, to handle the vagueness (fuzzy data type) within data objects. A framework of new and unif ied similarity measures for comparing heterogeneous objects described by numerical, categorical and fuzzy attributes has also been introduced. Examples are used to illustrate, compare and discuss the applications and e fficiency of the proposed approaches to heterogeneous data comparison. / Libyan Embassy

Supply chain disruptions, ranging from epidemics to geopolitical tensions, have been especially evident in recent years and have consequently become a hot topic in both boardrooms and academic literature. Supply chain resilience (SCR) denotes the ability to prepare, respond, recover, and facilitate growth during disruptions and is usually thought of as consisting of several enablers. Initial evidence suggests that one such enabler could be analytics, which broadly refers to the processing of data to support decision-making. This thesis aims to explore the use of analytics for SCR. The research design comprise one conceptual component followed by two empirical components consisting of a survey and interviews. The findings reveal six application areas for analytics in SCR. Three paths to SCR are also identified in terms of configurations of analytics and other SCR enablers, only one of which does not seem to be contingent on the level of supply chain complexity. Finally, obstacles to the use of analytics were identified. Clear consensus was noted for low data availability and/or quality as a major obstacle to SCR, while a somewhat consensus existed concerning the hindrance to quick decision-making, lack of a data-driven culture, and insufficient benefits and/or use. The thesis contributes to the nascent stream of research on the use of analytics and SCR by complementing individual observations with broader and deeper insights through the spectrum of application areas, configurations of analytics and complementary SCR-enablers, and finally, obstacles. For practitioners, the thesis provides insights into using analytics as a potential enabler for SCR. Firms can evaluate their current use of analytics for SCR and adjust their set of application areas and configurations of SCR-enablers as per the options outlined in the findings to better align with their specific needs and prerequisites. Finally, guidance is provided on what obstacles to be cognizant of and attempt to mitigate. / Störningar i försörjningskedjor, orsakade av händelser såsom pandemier och geopolitiska spänningar, har varit särskilt påtagliga under de senaste åren och har därmed blivit ett hett ämne både i näringslivet och akademin. Begreppet Supply chain resilience (SCR) avser försörjningskedjans förmåga att förbereda sig, reagera, återhämta sig och stödja tillväxt under sådana störningar. Det anses vanligtvis bestå av flera möjliggörare. Initiala bevis i litteraturen tyder också på att en av dessa möjliggörare kan vara analytics, som i stora drag betyder bearbetning av data för att stödja beslutsfattande. Denna avhandling syftar till att utforska användningen av analytics för SCR. Forskningsmetoden bestod av en konceptuell studie, följt av två empiriska studier i form av en enkät och intervjuer. Resultaten visar sex tillämpningsområden för analytics med avseende på SCR. Dessutom identifierades tre vägar till SCR när det gäller konfigurationer av analytics och andra SCR-möjliggörare, varav endast en konfiguration är oberoende av försörjningskedjans komplexitetsnivå. Slutligen identifierades hinder för användning av analytics för SCR. Det fanns en tydlig konsensus kring låg tillgänglighet och/eller kvalitet på data, medan det fanns viss enighet om hinder för snabba beslut, bristen på en kultur att basera beslutsfattande på analytics och slutligen otillräcklig nytta och/eller användning. Avhandlingen bidrar till forskning om användningen av analytics för SCR genom att komplettera enskilda observationer med bredare och djupare insikter om spektrumet av tillämpningsområden, konfigurationer av analytics och kompletterande SCR-möjliggörare, och slutligen, hinder. För praktiker ger avhandlingen insikter i att använda analytics som en potentiell möjliggörare för SCR. Företag kan utvärdera sin nuvarande användning av analytics för SCR och förändra tillämpningsområden och konfigurationer av SCR-möjligare enligt de identifierade alternativen för att bättre tillgodose sina behov och förutsättningar. Slutligen ges vägledning om vilka hinder man bör vara medveten om och försöka mildra.

No description available.

Die Dissertation untersucht ob partizipative Governance ein effektives Mittel ist um lokale Regierungen in Guatemala dazu zu bewegen ihren Wählern gegenüber verstärkt Rechenschaft abzulegen und den Haushalt mehr an den Bedürfnissen der Armen auszu-richten. Das erste Papier bereitet die wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisse zur Wirkung von und den Bedingungen für effektive partizipative Governance auf. Das zweite Papier stellt ein neues Verfahren zur Kalibrierung qualitativer Interviewdaten für fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) vor. In einer qualitativ-vergleichenden Ana-lyse von zehn ländlichen Gemeinden untersucht das dritte Papier wie sich effektive par-tizipative Governance, politischer Wettbewerb und Zugang zu lokalen Medien auf die Haushaltsgestaltung einer Lokalregierung auswirken. Das vierte Papier analysiert mit derselben Methode die Bedingungen für effektive partizipative Governance. Das fünfte Papier präsentiert eine Fallstudie zweier Gemeinden und diskutiert Politikoptionen für die Implementierung von partizipativer Governance in Guatemala. Die Ergebnisse der Papiere zeigen, dass effektive partizipative Governance in Kombination mit starkem politischem Wettbewerb zu einer armutsorientierteren Ausrichtung öffentlicher Ausga-ben in den zehn Gemeinden führt, da Wähler besser informiert sind. Jedoch deuten die Ergebnisse auch darauf hin, dass partizipative Governance wegen des geringen Grades zivilgesellschaftlicher Organisation, des niedrigen Bildungsniveaus und hoher Armut in Guatemala nicht effektiv implementiert wird. Partizipative Governance kann also lokale Regierungen dazu bewegen Rechenschaft abzulegen und den Haushalt armutsorientier-ter zu gestalten. Ihre effektive Implementierung wird jedoch in Guatemala lange dauern und einen hohen Ressourceneinsatz erfordern. Daher sollten politische Entscheidungs-träger und Geber auch die Stärkung anderer Informations- und Rechenschaftslegungs-mechanismen, wie der Gemeinderäte, in Betracht ziehen. / This thesis analyses whether participatory governance is an effective means for increas-ing local government accountability and for making local government spending more responsive to the needs of the poor in rural Guatemala. The first paper evaluates the scientific evidence on the impact of and the conditions for effective participatory gov-ernance. The second paper presents a new technique for calibrating qualitative interview data for fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). In a qualitative compara-tive analysis of ten rural Guatemalan municipalities the third paper examines how effec-tive participatory governance, competitive elections, and access to local media influence the allocation of local government spending. The fourth paper analyses the conditions for effective participatory governance with the same empirical method. The fifth paper presents a comparative case study of two municipalities and discusses policy options for implementing participatory governance in Guatemala. Overall, the papers’ findings show that effective participatory governance is sufficient for local government responsiveness in the study area when it is combined with competitive elections, because it increases voter information about local government performance. Yet, the findings also suggest that it will be difficult to implement participatory governance effectively in Guatemala due to the low degree of civil society organization, the low level of education of the population and the high level of poverty. The conclusion drawn from these findings is that effective participatory governance arrangements can make local governments more accountable and responsive, but that it will require much time and resources to implement them. Policy makers and donors should therefore also consider strengthening other information mechanisms, as well as existing accountability mechanisms, such as elected Municipal Councils.

Die Bodenzone, in der Literatur vielfach auch Wurzelzone, Aerationszone oder ungesättigte Zone genannt, ist geprägt durch variabel-wassergesättigte Verhältnisse und nimmt in vielen Disziplinen eine wichtige Rolle ein. Aus Sicht des Schutzguts Grundwasser stellt sie eine Schutz- und Pufferzone vor oberirdischen Umwelteinflüssen dar, in der eindringende oder eingebrachte Schadstoffe durch die dort ablaufenden Transport-, Abbau- und Sorptionsprozesse retardiert, teilweise bis vollständig abgebaut oder in andere Stoffe umgesetzt werden können, und somit eine Verunreinigung des Grundwassers verhindern kann. Um potenzielle Gefährdungen des Grundwassers anhand einer Altlast oder eines Schadensfalls abschätzen zu können, ist in Deutschland eine Sickerwasserprognose nach dem Bundesbodenschutzgesetz und der Bundesbodenschutzverordnung vorgeschrieben. Hierbei übernimmt die ungesättigte Zone die Funktion des Quell- und Transportterms für den Schadstoff. Der Quellterm dient der Beschreibung des zeitlichen Austragsverhaltens von Schadstoffen aus der Schadstoffquelle mit dem Sickerwasser, der Transportterm beschreibt den Wirkungspfad im Boden von der Geländeoberkante bis zur Grundwasseroberfläche. Die Anforderungen und Aufgaben des vom BMBF geförderten Forschungsvorhabens „Prognose des Schadstoffeintrags in das Grundwasser mit dem Sickerwasser“ (SiWaP) motivierten die Entwicklung des Programms PCSiWaPro. Innerhalb des Vorhabens sollte die Möglichkeit geschaffen werden, mit geringem Aufwand eine modellgestützte Sickerwasserprognose unter Berücksichtigung der Forschungsergebnisse aus SiWaP durchführen zu können. Kommerziell verfügbare Software blieb dabei außen vor, da die Implementierung eigener Prozesse, Datenbanken und Parameter damit nicht möglich ist. Gleichzeitig war eine komplexe Betrachtung der ablaufenden Prozesse erforderlich sowie die Dokumentation der Ein- und Ausgabedaten für eine entsprechende Nachweispflicht. Dies führte zur Entwicklung einer grafischen Benutzeroberfläche (GUI) mit einem Assistenten, der den Anwender in 5 sequenziell ablaufenden Schritten zu einem physikalisch begründeten Ergebnis führt (Protokoll). Alle notwendigen Eingaben werden dazu mit sinnvollen Werten vorbelegt und bei Änderung durch den Nutzer auf Plausibilität geprüft. Gleichzeitig sollte die Funktionalität nicht auf die Möglichkeiten des Assistenten beschränkt bleiben und dem erfahrenen Modellierer alle Optionen der numerischen Simulation bereitstellen. Die Dokumentation der Ein- und Ausgabedaten wird dabei durch die Verwendung von Datenbanken sichergestellt. Für den Einsatz in Ingenieurbüros, Behörden oder auch international war die GUI mehrsprachig zu implementieren. Diese Anforderungen begründeten die Entwicklung eines Simulationssystems, um den Wasserhaushalt und Stofftransport in ungesättigten Böden auch unter komplexen Bedingungen berechnen zu können. Das aus dem zuvor genannten BMBF-Verbundvorhaben SiWaP entstandene Programm PCSiWaPro war wesentlicher Bestandteil nachfolgender Forschungsvorhaben, deren Ergebnisse in die weitere Entwicklung des Programms einflossen und dessen Anwendungsgebiete außerhalb der Sickerwasserprognose erweiterten. So sind erforderliche Eingangsdaten wie bodenhydraulische und Stofftransportparameter oft mit Unsicherheiten behaftet oder können nur in Wertebereichen gefasst werden. Um derartige Unschärfen auch in den Berechnungsergebnissen von numerischen Simulationen ausweisen zu können, wurde die Fuzzy-Set-Theorie verwendet, die eine Zuordnung der Unsicherheiten über sogenannte α-Schnitte ermöglicht. Für jeden unscharfen Parameter kann dessen Schwankungsbreite definiert und in der Simulation berücksichtigt werden. Die Ausweisung der Unschärfen im Ergebnis erfolgt unter Angabe des sich ergebenden Minimums und Maximums der berechneten Größe (Druckhöhe, Konzentration). Anhand verschiedener Beispielanwendungen werden die in der Arbeit vorgestellten Problemstellungen durch Einsatz von PCSiWaPro behandelt. Die Arbeit gibt ebenso einen Ausblick auf weiterführenden Forschungs- und Entwicklungsbedarf, der sich aus den in der Arbeit erzielten Ergebnissen und Betrachtungen ableiten lässt.:Abbildungsverzeichnis Tabellenverzeichnis Abkürzungsverzeichnis Symbolverzeichnis 1 Einleitung 2 Wasserhaushaltsberechnung in variabel gesättigten porösen Medien 2.1 Zugrundeliegende Gleichung 2.2 Numerische Lösung 3 Transport- und Umsetzungsprozesse 3.1 Erhaltungsgleichung 3.2 Transportprozesse 3.3 Umsetzungsprozesse 3.4 Basisgleichung für den Stofftransport in PCSiWaPro 3.5 Numerische Lösung 4 Entwicklung des Programms PCSiWaPro 4.1 Softwarearchitektur 4.2 Datenbankkonzept 4.3 Benutzeroberfläche für das Preprocessing 4.4 Ergebnisvisualisierung und Postprocessing 4.5 Parallelisierung des Rechenkernels 4.6 Dual-Porosität nach DURNER 4.7 Strömungsrandbedingung als zeitvariable Polygonfunktion 4.8 Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten in den Eingangsdaten 5 Anwendungsbeispiele 5.1 Deichdurchströmung 5.2 Modellgestützte Sickerwasserprognose mit unscharfen Eingangsdaten 5.3 Test der Parallelisierung am synthetischen Beispiel 5.4 Zusammenfassung Anwendungsbeispiele 6 Zusammenfassung und Ausblick 7 Literaturverzeichnis 8 Anhang / The soil zone, often referred to as root zone, aeration zone or unsaturated zone in the literature, is characterized by variably saturated conditions and is of particular importance in many disciplines. From the groundwater point of view, it is a zone for protection and buffering of environmental processes at the surface. Penetrating hazardous substances can be retarded or even completely decayed due to the transport, degradation and sorption processes which occur and thus, can prevent a contamination of the groundwater. In order to estimate potential threats to the groundwater based on a contaminated site or a damage, a leachate forecast is required in Germany according to the Federal Soil Protection Act (BBodSchG) and the Federal Soil Protection Ordinance (BBodSchV). The unsaturated zone takes on the function of the source and transport term for the pollutant. The source term function is used to describe the temporal discharge behavior of pollutants from the contaminant source with the leachate, the transport term describes the action path in the soil from the top of the site to the groundwater surface. The requirements and tasks of the BMBF-funded research project 'Prognosis of Pollutant Infiltration into Groundwater with Leachate' (“Prognose des Schadstoffeintrags in das Grundwasser mit dem Sickerwasser”) (SiWaP) motivated the development of the PCSiWaPro program. Within the project, the possibility should be created to be able to carry out a model-based leachate forecast with little effort, taking into account the research results from the SiWaP project. Commercially available software had to be left out, since the implementation of new processes, databases and parameters is not possible. At the same time, a total consideration of the complex processes taking place was necessary, as was the documentation of the input and output data to provide evidence. This led to the development of a graphical user interface (GUI) with an assistant that leads the user in 5 sequential steps to a physically based result including a protocol. All necessary input data are pre-assigned with useful values and checked for plausibility when changed by the user. At the same time, the functionality should not be limited to the possibilities of the assistant and the GUI must provide all available options of a numerical simulation to advanced users. The documentation of the input and output data is ensured by using databases. The GUI provides multiple languages for use in engineering offices, authorities or international projects. These requirements justified the development of a simulation system to be able to calculate the water balance and solute transport in unsaturated soils even under complex conditions. The PCSiWaPro program, emerged from the BMBF joint project SiWaP mentioned above, was an integral part of subsequent research projects, the results of which were incorporated into the further development of the program and expanded its fields of application outside of the leachate forecast. Required input data such as soil hydraulic and solute transport parameters are often subject to uncertainties or can only be captured in value ranges. In order to show such blurring in the calculation results of numerical simulations, the fuzzy set theory was used, which enables the uncertainties to be assigned using so-called α-cuts. The fluctuation range for each uncertain parameter can be defined individually and considered in the simulation. The blurring in the result is indicated by specifying the resulting minimum and maximum of the calculated quantity (pressure level, concentration). Using various sample applications, the problems presented in the thesis are dealt with by using PCSiWaPro. The thesis also gives an outlook on further research and development perspectives, which are derived from the results achieved in this thesis and the demands from the daily practice.:Abbildungsverzeichnis Tabellenverzeichnis Abkürzungsverzeichnis Symbolverzeichnis 1 Einleitung 2 Wasserhaushaltsberechnung in variabel gesättigten porösen Medien 2.1 Zugrundeliegende Gleichung 2.2 Numerische Lösung 3 Transport- und Umsetzungsprozesse 3.1 Erhaltungsgleichung 3.2 Transportprozesse 3.3 Umsetzungsprozesse 3.4 Basisgleichung für den Stofftransport in PCSiWaPro 3.5 Numerische Lösung 4 Entwicklung des Programms PCSiWaPro 4.1 Softwarearchitektur 4.2 Datenbankkonzept 4.3 Benutzeroberfläche für das Preprocessing 4.4 Ergebnisvisualisierung und Postprocessing 4.5 Parallelisierung des Rechenkernels 4.6 Dual-Porosität nach DURNER 4.7 Strömungsrandbedingung als zeitvariable Polygonfunktion 4.8 Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten in den Eingangsdaten 5 Anwendungsbeispiele 5.1 Deichdurchströmung 5.2 Modellgestützte Sickerwasserprognose mit unscharfen Eingangsdaten 5.3 Test der Parallelisierung am synthetischen Beispiel 5.4 Zusammenfassung Anwendungsbeispiele 6 Zusammenfassung und Ausblick 7 Literaturverzeichnis 8 Anhang

本研究的目的在於結合部份計分模式(partial credit model, PCM)與模糊集合論(fuzzy set theory)，提出評定量表的不同計分方式：模糊部份計分法(fuzzy partial credit scaling, FPCS)。FPCS是根據 PCM 所估計出的梯度參數(step parameters)來建構三角形模糊數，三角形模糊數代表選擇某個特定選項的受試者的能力分配情形。接著，利用中心法(center of gravity method) 將三角形模糊數解模糊化為純量。最後，利用隸屬度當作權重，計算個別受試者的模糊觀察分數，並且用模糊觀察分數當作量表的總分。 本研究採用貝克憂鬱量表(Beck Depression Inventory-II, BDI)中文版為研究工具。本研究的樣本分為憂鬱症病患與非憂鬱症的一般大學生兩大類。240位憂鬱症病患樣本是由台北市立和平醫院精神科門診募集而來；321位大學生則以便利抽樣的方式募集而來。 為了驗証FPCS的有效性，本研究進行三個子研究，來比較FPCS與傳統計分法在信度、效度、集群分析的分類正確性。 子研究一探討FPCS的信度。本研究以Cronbach alpha係數來衡量量表的內部一致性，並且以結構方程式模式(structure equation modeling)進行驗證性因素分析所估計的各試題的變異數被潛在構念解釋的比例當作信度的指標。由研究結果顯示，以量表整體而言，FPCS計分的結果得到較高的內部一致性；以各題而言，量表各試題的變異數被潛在構念解釋的百分比高於傳統的原始分數。此結果顯示FPCS的計分方式可以降低測量誤差，提升信度。 子研究二探討FPCS的效度，本研究以精神科醫師的診斷當作效標，分別以FPCS與原始分數兩種不同的計分法當作自變項，以預測效度當作效度的指標。首先，將是否罹患憂鬱症編碼為二元變數，不同計分法所得到的量表分數當作自變數，進行Logistic迴歸分析。研究結果顯示，相較於原始分數，FPCS預測罹患憂鬱症的正確率由 74.8% 提升到 77.2%。接下來，依照所有樣本的憂鬱程度，區分為一般樣本、憂鬱症且緩解、憂鬱症無緩解三類，進行區別分析。研究結果顯示，相較於原始分數，FPCS分類正確率由 71.2% 提升到 80.7%。上述的研究結果顯示，FPCS具有較高的效度，可以降低誤判憂鬱症的機率。 子研究三比較模糊集群分析(fuzzy c-means, FCM)與傳統明確邏輯的集群分析。首先利用分群效度(clustering validity)指標，決定群數為三群。並以此結果，指定模糊集群、Wald法、k-means法之群數。為了比較分類的效果，將模糊集群之樣本，指定給獲得最大隸屬度之集群。並且以醫師的診斷的憂鬱程度當作評估分類結果之標準。研究結果顯示，相較於傳統明確邏輯的集群分析(Wald法、k-means法)，模糊集群分析得到分群結果，與醫師的診斷的結果有最高的相關。結果顯示模糊集群分析更能夠忠實的反映資料結構。 整體而言，相較於原始分數，FPCS有較高的信度、效度、分類正確性。此實証性研究結果支持了模糊集合論應用於心理學研究的可行性；多值的模糊邏輯比二值明確邏輯更能夠正確反映出人類的思維。 / The aim of this study was to propose and validate the new scaling method, fuzzy partial credit scaling (FPCS), which combines fuzzy set theory with the partial credit model (PCM) to score rating scales. To achieve this goal, the Chinese version of BDI (Beck Depression Inventory-II) was administrated to a depressed sample of patients and a non-depressed sample. The depressed sample consisted of 240 outpatients who were diagnosed as depressed by a psychiatric doctor, while 321 undergraduate students were recruited for the nondepressed sample. In FPCS, triangular fuzzy numbers were generated by step parameters to characterize distributions of each alternative value. Next, the center of gravity (COG) method was applied to “de-fuzzify” the fuzzy number into a scalar. Then, the “observed fuzzy scores” defined in FPCS were calculated as the sums of fuzzy number values weighted by membership degrees for the following analysis. Three studies were performed to compare the differences in reliability, validity and clustering precision between the raw score and FPCS. In Study One, the reliability issue of FPCS was discussed. The results of confirmatory factor analysis demonstrate that the BDI reliability was higher in FCPS than in raw scoring. That is, compared with raw scoring, scoring via FPCS produced fewer measurement errors, meaning that more variances in an item of BDI were explained by depression. In Study Two, the predictive validity issue of FPCS was investigated. First, logistic regression analysis was used to predict the odds of suffering depression based on FPCS and the raw scores. The analytical results showed that, via FPCS, the probability of correct classification of depressed and non-depressed was raised from 74.8% to 77.2%. Next, discrimination analysis was performed to classify the subjects according to the severity of depression into three categories: non-depression, depression with remission and depression without remission. The analytical results exhibited that, via FPCS, the probability of correct classification of severity of depression was raised from 71.2% to 80.7%. These two statistical analyses consistently show that FPCS exhibited higher predictive validity than did the raw score. That is, BDI scoring via FPCS makes more accuracy predictions for depression than raw score. In Study Three, fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering was applied to partition the sample according to severity of depression. To examine explore whether fuzzy-based clustering methods uncover the information inherent in the latent structure more accurately than crisp clustering, FCM, Wald’s method, and k-means method were performed. The analytical results reveal that the association between the original and classified membership generated by FCM was stronger than that of the Wald and k-means methods. Hence, FCM revealed the data structure most accurately. Overall, FPCS has been consistently shown to be superior to raw scoring in terms of reliability, validity, and clustering accuracy. This study has empirically shown that fuzzy set theory is applicable to psychological research.

Korea and Japan stand out in the group of OECD countries for their rapid increase in, and high levels of, non-standard employment. The empirical evidence leads us to a two-part puzzle: Why are there so many precarious workers in Korea and Japan? And what are the institutional determinants of such labour market risks? This thesis commences by introducing the concept of 'risk shift', and the fuzzy-set ideal type approach is employed to conduct a comparative study of 18 countries. The labour market risks in Korea and Japan are then compared in an international context with 16 selected OECD countries. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis is employed to investigate the institutional determinants of labour market risks. It then focuses on the increase in non-standard employement in Korea and Japan. Taiwan is also included as a contrasting case, the study taking an institutional approach employing Comparative Historical Analysis. Chapters employing CHA examine how the different welfare production regimes evolved and how they matter in explaining the high rate of non-standard employment in East Asia. The new risk discussion, the argument on the definition and impact of deindustrialization and lastly theories on East Asian welfare states are revisited in the conclusion of this thesis. Finally, I critically discuss the notion of precarious workers and highlight the centrality of social policy that their organizational configuration affects political culture, the formation of the production system, the structure of the labour market and the kind of risk a country could experience.