It is difficult to know exactly why leaders and their advisors make decisions. Despite this, scholars have long attempted to gain insight into this largely unintelligible process, especially when the decision is acknowledged by many to be a poor one. In 1972, Irving Janis published a book that intended to explain why groups of seemingly rational and intelligent men could make disastrous decisions, a theory he named groupthink. When groupthink was first introduced, the Vietnam War was provided as an example of the theory in action. Though at the time Vietnam seemed like a plausible case of groupthink, declassified documents now available tell a decidedly different story. It is now evident that Lyndon Johnson agonized over the decision to send combat troops to Vietnam and that he did in fact seek the advice of people with an array of opinions on the best course of action in Vietnam. The application of groupthink to Vietnam becomes even weaker when compared to the cogent role groupthink played in the Iraq War. The Iraq War not only displayed symptoms of groupthink at an executive level, but precipitated it down into the lowest levels of government and the American people. Consequently, the Iraq War has thus far manifested itself as the most potent case of groupthink documented in modern times. While many of the symptoms found in Vietnam could be construed as coincidental, much of the groupthink symptoms found in the case of Iraq appear to be the result of careful calculation by the Bush administration.

Esta tese trata de crédito, não da análise dos demonstrativos financeiros, e sim a partir do momento em que o resultado de uma análise criteriosa e competente é colocada à disposição do comitê para decidir pela concessão ou não do crédito. A decisão de crédito é nosso enfoque principal. A tese está dividida em quatro partes. Na primeira parte fazemos uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crédito, dos fundamentos históricos à aplicação de modelos sofisticados de administração de carteiras (o Creditmetrics), passando pelo Estado da Arte das técnicas de credit scoring. A segunda parte trata dos fundamentos da teoria da análise da decisão, onde discutimos e analisamos o comportamento político e racional nas organizações, e os principais problemas decorrentes de atitudes indesejáveis como escalation, groupthink e bandwagon. A terceira parte discorre, inicialmente, sobre a pesquisa e sua metodologia, apresentando as hipóteses a serem testadas. Na seqüência, com base em dezoito entrevistas com diretores das principais entidades bancárias do país, descrevemos o processo geral para a concessão de crédito para grandes corporações e analisamos sete casos de concessões de crédito malsucedidas. Finalmente, com uma amostra de 54 bancos, realizamos a análise estatística dos resultados buscando comprovar nossas hipóteses de pesquisa. Na quarta e última parte apresentamos o sumário e conclusões da tese. Podemos destacar a relevância dos aspectos comportamentais, como fundamento da tomada de decisão e crédito: os testes realizados comprovam a influência do comportamento racional como redutor do índice de inadimplência; enquanto os sintomas de comportamento político, escalation e groupthink contribuem para o aumento do índice de inadimplência. / This thesis is concerned with credit decision and not with financial statements analysis. More specifically, it is focused on the decision making process of the credit committee once the results of a competent anlysis is avalaible. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the first we present a review about credit, from its historical developments up to the applications of sophisticated portfolio management models and other modern techniques. The second part deals with the fundamentals of decision theory. We discuss ans analyze political and rational decision behaviors within organizations, and phenomenon such as escalation, groupthink and bandwagon. The third part presents, initially, the research problem, its methodology and the hypothesis to be tested. Subsequently, based on eighteen interviews with bank executives in Brazil, we describe the decision processes employed in the concession of credits to large corporations. We also analyze seven cases of unsuccessful credit decisions. Finally we present the statistical analysis of a survey by questionnaires from 54 Brazilian banks. In the fourth and last part we present the conclusions of this thesis. The key results in the importance of behavioral aspects in the credit decision processes: the statistical tests confirm that the rational behavior mitigates the bankruptcy index; while the political behavior, escalation and groupthink contribute to an increment of the banruptcy index.

Esta tese trata de crédito, não da análise dos demonstrativos financeiros, e sim a partir do momento em que o resultado de uma análise criteriosa e competente é colocada à disposição do comitê para decidir pela concessão ou não do crédito. A decisão de crédito é nosso enfoque principal. A tese está dividida em quatro partes. Na primeira parte fazemos uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crédito, dos fundamentos históricos à aplicação de modelos sofisticados de administração de carteiras (o Creditmetrics), passando pelo Estado da Arte das técnicas de credit scoring. A segunda parte trata dos fundamentos da teoria da análise da decisão, onde discutimos e analisamos o comportamento político e racional nas organizações, e os principais problemas decorrentes de atitudes indesejáveis como escalation, groupthink e bandwagon. A terceira parte discorre, inicialmente, sobre a pesquisa e sua metodologia, apresentando as hipóteses a serem testadas. Na seqüência, com base em dezoito entrevistas com diretores das principais entidades bancárias do país, descrevemos o processo geral para a concessão de crédito para grandes corporações e analisamos sete casos de concessões de crédito malsucedidas. Finalmente, com uma amostra de 54 bancos, realizamos a análise estatística dos resultados buscando comprovar nossas hipóteses de pesquisa. Na quarta e última parte apresentamos o sumário e conclusões da tese. Podemos destacar a relevância dos aspectos comportamentais, como fundamento da tomada de decisão e crédito: os testes realizados comprovam a influência do comportamento racional como redutor do índice de inadimplência; enquanto os sintomas de comportamento político, escalation e groupthink contribuem para o aumento do índice de inadimplência. / This thesis is concerned with credit decision and not with financial statements analysis. More specifically, it is focused on the decision making process of the credit committee once the results of a competent anlysis is avalaible. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the first we present a review about credit, from its historical developments up to the applications of sophisticated portfolio management models and other modern techniques. The second part deals with the fundamentals of decision theory. We discuss ans analyze political and rational decision behaviors within organizations, and phenomenon such as escalation, groupthink and bandwagon. The third part presents, initially, the research problem, its methodology and the hypothesis to be tested. Subsequently, based on eighteen interviews with bank executives in Brazil, we describe the decision processes employed in the concession of credits to large corporations. We also analyze seven cases of unsuccessful credit decisions. Finally we present the statistical analysis of a survey by questionnaires from 54 Brazilian banks. In the fourth and last part we present the conclusions of this thesis. The key results in the importance of behavioral aspects in the credit decision processes: the statistical tests confirm that the rational behavior mitigates the bankruptcy index; while the political behavior, escalation and groupthink contribute to an increment of the banruptcy index.

With the election of President Barack Obama, the United States has seen a steady increase in the number of right-wing militia groups. The Southern Poverty Law Center and the Department of Homeland Security have claimed that the various militia groups are a dangerous domestic terrorism threat. Law enforcement perceptions of the threat that these militia groups pose served as the focus of inquiry in this multiple case study. These perceptions were explored through the theoretical frameworks of groupthink, Credulous Bayesianism, and nudge theory. A purposeful sample of 12 local sheriffs in Texas were interviewed in an attempt to identify common themes regarding their perceptions of militia groups. Two common themes emerged from the interviews, which showed that sheriffs' firsthand knowledge and experience with members of the militia were instrumental in their approach to militias. If sheriffs had direct contact with the militia, then they did not believe that it posed a threat to society. However, if sheriffs did not have firsthand experience with the militia and depended on the media for their opinions, then they followed the narrative that the militia groups are dangerous. This research project showed that sheriffs' direct interaction with the militia can decrease law enforcement's fear of militia groups, allowing sheriffs to detect, investigate, and prosecute any actual threats from militia groups to make their communities safer while protecting the rights of all citizens.

Project teams advance a common goal by working together on projects that require a diverse set of skills and are difficult for 1 person to complete. In this study, there was an exploration of the antecedents to groupthink in project teams from the perspectives of project managers. Many companies use project managers to complete critical objectives; avoiding groupthink is crucial to their success. The purpose of this research was to understand why project teams are susceptible to groupthink and what precautions managers can take to avoid it. The conceptual framework utilized in this study was Janis' concept of groupthink, which is reaching consensus without adequate examination of ideas. The study was a qualitative, phenomenological design involving semistructured phone and face-to-face interviews with 16 project managers from a variety of industries with at least 10 years of experience and who hold a project management professional designation. The main research question was: how does groupthink occur and how can project managers mitigate the adverse consequences of groupthink? Data analysis consisted of open sentence analysis and axial coding of patterns in the data using NVivo 11. The key research finding was that project managers with more experience are better at mitigating groupthink. Project managers expressed that groupthink can lead project teams to advance flawed decisions that may cost people their jobs or result in loss of life. This study may affect positive social change by preventing flawed decisions that could adversely impact society. Future researchers should explore possible ways that project managers can develop strategies that can identify and prevent groupthink from occurring.

This thesis suggests that consensus is a critical blind spot in crisis management models. The authors have grounded their argument in one conceptual framework by integrating two model theories in crisis management models and consensus theory and its related behaviors; Abilene Paradox and Groupthink. The authors evaluated these theories against Lehman Brothers between 2007 and September 2008. The results demonstrate that consensus is problematized in the decision-making process throughout the crisis management model. This suggests that consensus is a dormant risk factor that should be viewed as problematic in crisis management models. The authors conclude that the role of a principled constructive dissenter should be formalized in leadership and management of organisations to short circuit problematic consensus in crisis models.

Although Republicans and Democrats frequently disagree ideologically, the leaders of both parties share one commonality in particular--they inevitably make flawed judgments. To adequately understand the extent to which psychological filters act as a fundamental factor in decision making, this thesis shall analyze current political events and observe how partisans within both administrations deal with information incompatible with their own values and beliefs. Specifically referencing the war in Iraq, weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), civil unrest, national security, the national economic climate, and the housing market, this study examines the way leaders deal differently with conflicting information. Although all subjects in the latter shall be discussed, the primary focus is directed towards weapons of mass destruction during the Bush administration and the economic climate during the Obama administration. During their presidencies, both administrations faced different circumstances and congruently possessed different ideologies in respect of how to resolve current problems. Therefore, both President Obama and Bush shall equally be observed in order to adequately compare the extent to which each succumbs to cognitive biases when faced with dissonant information. In addition, groupthink theory, schema theory, and self-justification shall be discussed as complimentary forces which impair political members' decisions. Overall, qualitatively assessing both Republican and Democratic parties in one comprehensive examination breaks the bounds of usual political science studies because both partisans are linked more by their similarities than differences.

Forskningsfrågor: •Hur upplever ledare fenomenet Groupthinkinom innovation och utvecklingsarbete och hur det yttrar sig i deras team? •Hur kan en förståelse för Groupthinkförändra processer för beslutsfattanden? Syfte: Huvudsyftet med studien är att öka kunskapen om GT och dess förekomst upplevs hos ledare för innovation och utvecklingsprojekt inom svenska organisationer. Vidare är syftet att skapa en uppfattning av hur en bredare förståelse för GT kan förändra ledares arbetssätt vid beslutsfattande. Metod: Flermetodsforskning med tvärsnittsdesign. Kvalitativ delen är intervjuer med tematisk analys och den kvantitativ del är enkäter som analyserats genom olika delkodningar. Slutsats: GT uttrycker sig i innovationsteam i svenska organisationer, men på ett positivt sätt. Problematiken ligger i när orsaker och symptom slår över till konsekvenser (Aronson et.al., 2020). Beroende på organisationens storlek och bransch så kan denna gräns variera, det tyder däremot på att organisationer inom offentlig sektor har en större risk att slå över till konsekvenserna. Det beror på att de har mer restriktioner och färre som besitter mandat, vilket minskar flexibiliteten och i sin tur ens innovativa förmåga. De finns däremot också risker för mindre organisationer då risken för starkt sammanhållna grupper ökar när de inte besitter samma resurser eller är lika belägna till att arbeta ad hoc. / Research questions: •How do leaders experience the phenomenon groupthink in innovation and development work and the way groupthinkexpressesitselfintheirteams? •How can an understanding of groupthinkchange the process of decision making? Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to increase knowledge about GT and how it ́s occurrence is experienced by leaders in innovation and development work within Swedish organizations. Furthermore, the aim is to get an apprehension of how a broader understanding of GT can change the way leaders work in decision-making. Method: Mixed methods research with a cross-sectional design. The qualitative method uses interviews with a thematic analysis, the quantitative method uses questionnaires analyzed through different partial coding's. Conclusion: GT expresses itself in innovation teams in Swedish organizations, though in a positive way. Problematic here is when antecedent conditions and symptoms emerges into consequences (Aronson et al., 2020). Depending on the branch of industry and size of the organization the line between antecedent/symptoms and consequences differs, it also seems that organizations within public sector runs a bigger risk of reaching the consequences of GT. This because of higher restrictions and fewer with mandate to reach a conclusion, this decreases the flexibility leading to a decrease in innovative abilities. There are also risks within smaller organizations because of the risk for more cohesive groups since they do not have the same personnel resources or aren't as inclined to work ad hoc.

This thesis deals with policy failure and policy success and aims at introducing this issue into the context of the Czech Republic. The main perspective of the thesis follows approaches to analysis of policy success and policy failure developed by Mark Bovens, Paul 't Hart, and Allan McConnell. Their theoretical assumption is complex, as they evaluate the policies upon the criteria of the more general dimensions (process, program, and politics). The goal of the thesis is not only to utilize their theoretical background but also to refine and reconceptualize current theory of policy success and policy failure, respectively. The thesis is based on case study research design. The chosen case - organizational reform of labor offices - is considered as a typical policy failure. I describe and analyze in detail the selected case with a wide range of qualitative and quantitative methods. This reform was extensive and was realized in two stages. The first stage focused on the organizational structure (from decentralized to centralized management). The second stage included changes in the content of the public employment services provided by the labor offices (the newly introduced services were all non-insurance social benefits). The analysis of labor offices reform seeks to answer the following questions,...

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