Esta dissertação é o resultado de um intenso processo de imersão em um dos espaços mais íntimos do fazer científico: o laboratório. O objetivo interposto foi o de realizar uma pesquisa de caráter etnográfico em um laboratório de pesquisa em genética de populações humanas, vinculado ao Instituto de Biociências, ao Departamento de Genética e ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular (PPGBM) da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). O objeto deste estudo não foi o laboratório de pesquisa em si, mas as práticas científicas levadas a cabo por este coletivo ao ser fazer do Consórcio para Análise da Diversidade e Evolução na América Latina (CANDELA), um consórcio de pesquisa multi-cêntrico que, como o próprio nome indica, procura dar conta da diversidade étnico-racial em diversos países na América Latina. Buscou-se etnografar o que acontecia, sobretudo, entre instrumentos e práticas laboratoriais, durante a realização deste consórcio de pesquisa, abordando as escolhas práticas e conceituais que foram adotadas no cotidiano científico durante pouco mais de seis meses. Tentou-se não perder de vista as associações mais amplas que foram estabelecidas nesse contexto, de forma que o laboratório foi o ponto de partida e não o ponto de chegada. Nesse sentido, o que se realizou é o que se denomina aqui de “etnografia a partir do laboratório”. No plano teórico-epistemológico, a proposta é a de colocar em questão dicotomias clássicas da ciência moderna, como cultura-natureza, a partir do estudo etnográfico de um projeto de pesquisa que estaria na fronteira entre as ditas ciências naturais e ciências sociais, contribuindo para a ampliação da discussão em torno da agência dos não humanos e de quanto isso se faz central em uma pesquisa de cunho etnográfico que leve a sério não só o que dizem nossos interlocutores humanos, mas também aqueles que emergem a partir da fala destes e da observação da prática científica. Além disso, ao mesmo tempo que esta dissertação procura mostrar a centralidade dos não humanos na prática científica principalmente através de um evento ocorrido ao longo do trabalho de campo, ela aponta para a possibilidade de interlocução entre as ciências biológicas e as ciências sociais. / This dissertation is the result of an intense immersion in one of the most intimate spaces of the scientific practice: the laboratory. The goal brought was to conduct an ethnographic research in a laboratory in population genetics, linked to the Instituto de Biociências, of Departamento de Genética and to Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular (PPGBM) at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). The object of this study was not to research the laboratory itself, but the scientific practices undertaken by this collective as being part of the Consortium for Analysis of Diversity and Evolution in Latin America (CANDELA), a multi-center research consortium, as its name implies, sought to account for the racial-ethnic diversity in several countries in Latin America. It tries to give an account of what happened, especially among instruments and laboratory practice, within this research consortium, tackling the everyday practical and conceptual scientific choices ocurred during the over six months of fieldwork research. It intends to not lose sight of the broader associations that were established in this context, so that the laboratory was the starting point and not the ending point. In this sense, what took place is what is called here an “ethnography from the laboratory”. In a theoretical-epistemological scheme, the proposal is to discuss traditional dichotomies of modern science, such as culture and nature, from ethnographic study of a research project that was on the border between natural sciences and social sciences, contributing to expanding the discussion on the agency of nonhumans and how this is done in an ethnographic research that takes seriously not only what is said by our human counterparts, but also those that emerge from these talks and from the observation of scientific practice. Moreover, while this dissertation seeks to show the centrality of non-human in scientific practice mainly through an event that occurred over the fieldwork, it points to the possibility of dialogue between the natural sciences and the social sciences.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:34:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:03:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:13:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AlexandreEM_TESE.pdf: 2243848 bytes, checksum: 084d61604c2aa96c5c502207145559c0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-23 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico / The occurrence of human cancer in the municipality of Lucr?cia (RN, Brazil) has shown high frequencies (INCA, 2007). Tests of micronucleus (MN) and nuclear abnormalities (NA) were performed to assess the genotoxic potential of water from the Lucr?cia dam, which is located in a semi-arid region under the influence of crop irrigation and irregular rainfall. Water samples were collected in this source for analyzing the concentration of cyanobacteria, metals and radioactivity. Erythrocytes of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were collected in dam and cells of human oral mucosa in the urban area of this municipality for the bioassays of MN and NA. In fish were also analyzed concentrations of metals in samples of liver and gills. The genotoxicity tests with biological samples of fish and humans have shown significant increases in the frequencies of MN and NA (p ≤ 0.05) and are indicative of increased DNA damage in relation to the control groups. In conclusion, the results obtained from water samples and biological municipality of Lucr?cia indicates that the presence of chemical and microbiological pollutants, and increase of genotoxic in human of this municipality. We suggest the implementation of advanced water treatment, to prevent further degradation of the aquatic environment and decrease in the life quality. This research of environmental quality assessment was performed in order to contemplate a multi and interdisciplinary character of this water resource and that can induce genotoxic damage in the organisms in this study region / A ocorr?ncia de c?ncer humano na regi?o do munic?pio de Lucr?cia (RN, Brasil) tem mostrado freq??ncias elevadas (INCA, 2007). Foram aplicados testes de micron?cleos (MN) e altera??es nucleares (NA) para avaliar o potencial genot?xico das ?guas do a?ude de Lucr?cia, que est? localizado numa regi?o semi-?rida sob influ?ncia de irriga??o agr?cola e precipita??o irregular. Foram coletadas amostras de ?gua nesse manancial para an?lise da concentra??o de cianobact?rias, metais e radioatividade. Foram coletados eritr?citos de til?pia do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus) no manancial e c?lulas de mucosa oral humana na ?rea urbana desse munic?pio para os bioensaios de MN e NA. Nos peixes tamb?m foram analisadas as concentra??es de metais em amostras de br?nquias e f?gado. Os testes de genotoxicidade com amostras biol?gicas de peixes e humanos mostraram aumentos significantivos nas freq??ncias de MN e NA (p ≤ 0,05) e s?o indicativos de aumento nos danos ao DNA em rela??o aos grupos controles. Concluindo, os resultados obtidos com as amostras de ?gua e biol?gicas do a?ude de Lucr?cia indicam a presen?a de poluentes qu?micos e microbiol?gicos, e tamb?m aumento do potencial genot?xico na popula??o humana desse munic?pio. Sugerimos a execu??o de tratamento h?drico avan?ado, para prevenir futura degrada??o desse ambiente aqu?tico e redu??o da qualidade de vida. Esta pesquisa de avalia??o da qualidade ambiental foi executada de forma a contemplar uma abordagem multi e interdisciplinar da caracter?stica deste recurso h?drico e os danos genot?xicos que possam induzir nos organismos desta regi?o em estudo

Esta dissertação é o resultado de um intenso processo de imersão em um dos espaços mais íntimos do fazer científico: o laboratório. O objetivo interposto foi o de realizar uma pesquisa de caráter etnográfico em um laboratório de pesquisa em genética de populações humanas, vinculado ao Instituto de Biociências, ao Departamento de Genética e ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular (PPGBM) da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). O objeto deste estudo não foi o laboratório de pesquisa em si, mas as práticas científicas levadas a cabo por este coletivo ao ser fazer do Consórcio para Análise da Diversidade e Evolução na América Latina (CANDELA), um consórcio de pesquisa multi-cêntrico que, como o próprio nome indica, procura dar conta da diversidade étnico-racial em diversos países na América Latina. Buscou-se etnografar o que acontecia, sobretudo, entre instrumentos e práticas laboratoriais, durante a realização deste consórcio de pesquisa, abordando as escolhas práticas e conceituais que foram adotadas no cotidiano científico durante pouco mais de seis meses. Tentou-se não perder de vista as associações mais amplas que foram estabelecidas nesse contexto, de forma que o laboratório foi o ponto de partida e não o ponto de chegada. Nesse sentido, o que se realizou é o que se denomina aqui de “etnografia a partir do laboratório”. No plano teórico-epistemológico, a proposta é a de colocar em questão dicotomias clássicas da ciência moderna, como cultura-natureza, a partir do estudo etnográfico de um projeto de pesquisa que estaria na fronteira entre as ditas ciências naturais e ciências sociais, contribuindo para a ampliação da discussão em torno da agência dos não humanos e de quanto isso se faz central em uma pesquisa de cunho etnográfico que leve a sério não só o que dizem nossos interlocutores humanos, mas também aqueles que emergem a partir da fala destes e da observação da prática científica. Além disso, ao mesmo tempo que esta dissertação procura mostrar a centralidade dos não humanos na prática científica principalmente através de um evento ocorrido ao longo do trabalho de campo, ela aponta para a possibilidade de interlocução entre as ciências biológicas e as ciências sociais. / This dissertation is the result of an intense immersion in one of the most intimate spaces of the scientific practice: the laboratory. The goal brought was to conduct an ethnographic research in a laboratory in population genetics, linked to the Instituto de Biociências, of Departamento de Genética and to Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular (PPGBM) at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). The object of this study was not to research the laboratory itself, but the scientific practices undertaken by this collective as being part of the Consortium for Analysis of Diversity and Evolution in Latin America (CANDELA), a multi-center research consortium, as its name implies, sought to account for the racial-ethnic diversity in several countries in Latin America. It tries to give an account of what happened, especially among instruments and laboratory practice, within this research consortium, tackling the everyday practical and conceptual scientific choices ocurred during the over six months of fieldwork research. It intends to not lose sight of the broader associations that were established in this context, so that the laboratory was the starting point and not the ending point. In this sense, what took place is what is called here an “ethnography from the laboratory”. In a theoretical-epistemological scheme, the proposal is to discuss traditional dichotomies of modern science, such as culture and nature, from ethnographic study of a research project that was on the border between natural sciences and social sciences, contributing to expanding the discussion on the agency of nonhumans and how this is done in an ethnographic research that takes seriously not only what is said by our human counterparts, but also those that emerge from these talks and from the observation of scientific practice. Moreover, while this dissertation seeks to show the centrality of non-human in scientific practice mainly through an event that occurred over the fieldwork, it points to the possibility of dialogue between the natural sciences and the social sciences.

Esta dissertação é o resultado de um intenso processo de imersão em um dos espaços mais íntimos do fazer científico: o laboratório. O objetivo interposto foi o de realizar uma pesquisa de caráter etnográfico em um laboratório de pesquisa em genética de populações humanas, vinculado ao Instituto de Biociências, ao Departamento de Genética e ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular (PPGBM) da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). O objeto deste estudo não foi o laboratório de pesquisa em si, mas as práticas científicas levadas a cabo por este coletivo ao ser fazer do Consórcio para Análise da Diversidade e Evolução na América Latina (CANDELA), um consórcio de pesquisa multi-cêntrico que, como o próprio nome indica, procura dar conta da diversidade étnico-racial em diversos países na América Latina. Buscou-se etnografar o que acontecia, sobretudo, entre instrumentos e práticas laboratoriais, durante a realização deste consórcio de pesquisa, abordando as escolhas práticas e conceituais que foram adotadas no cotidiano científico durante pouco mais de seis meses. Tentou-se não perder de vista as associações mais amplas que foram estabelecidas nesse contexto, de forma que o laboratório foi o ponto de partida e não o ponto de chegada. Nesse sentido, o que se realizou é o que se denomina aqui de “etnografia a partir do laboratório”. No plano teórico-epistemológico, a proposta é a de colocar em questão dicotomias clássicas da ciência moderna, como cultura-natureza, a partir do estudo etnográfico de um projeto de pesquisa que estaria na fronteira entre as ditas ciências naturais e ciências sociais, contribuindo para a ampliação da discussão em torno da agência dos não humanos e de quanto isso se faz central em uma pesquisa de cunho etnográfico que leve a sério não só o que dizem nossos interlocutores humanos, mas também aqueles que emergem a partir da fala destes e da observação da prática científica. Além disso, ao mesmo tempo que esta dissertação procura mostrar a centralidade dos não humanos na prática científica principalmente através de um evento ocorrido ao longo do trabalho de campo, ela aponta para a possibilidade de interlocução entre as ciências biológicas e as ciências sociais. / This dissertation is the result of an intense immersion in one of the most intimate spaces of the scientific practice: the laboratory. The goal brought was to conduct an ethnographic research in a laboratory in population genetics, linked to the Instituto de Biociências, of Departamento de Genética and to Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular (PPGBM) at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). The object of this study was not to research the laboratory itself, but the scientific practices undertaken by this collective as being part of the Consortium for Analysis of Diversity and Evolution in Latin America (CANDELA), a multi-center research consortium, as its name implies, sought to account for the racial-ethnic diversity in several countries in Latin America. It tries to give an account of what happened, especially among instruments and laboratory practice, within this research consortium, tackling the everyday practical and conceptual scientific choices ocurred during the over six months of fieldwork research. It intends to not lose sight of the broader associations that were established in this context, so that the laboratory was the starting point and not the ending point. In this sense, what took place is what is called here an “ethnography from the laboratory”. In a theoretical-epistemological scheme, the proposal is to discuss traditional dichotomies of modern science, such as culture and nature, from ethnographic study of a research project that was on the border between natural sciences and social sciences, contributing to expanding the discussion on the agency of nonhumans and how this is done in an ethnographic research that takes seriously not only what is said by our human counterparts, but also those that emerge from these talks and from the observation of scientific practice. Moreover, while this dissertation seeks to show the centrality of non-human in scientific practice mainly through an event that occurred over the fieldwork, it points to the possibility of dialogue between the natural sciences and the social sciences.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-20T12:31:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Isabel da Mota Pontes.pdf: 2179836 bytes, checksum: 0b2f33d44ee029fbf560b3505ea884b2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-14 / The present work presents the development of a new system called multiplex Pentaplex-ised, composed of 5 microsatellite loci STR type (D5S198498, D3S18773, GH15, D8S82535 and D11S118590). Such microsatellites have been identified in the human genome, using the program BLAST-N (GenBank). Specific primers were designed for amplification via PCR. Fluorescent primers were synthesized to allow simultaneous analysis of multiple amplicons (multiplex analysis). All microsatellite loci were genotyped confirming the high degree of polymorphism. In the validation, the minimum DNA concentration of for amplification was estimated at 0.25 ng. Several types of biological samples (blood, saliva, urine and semen) were acquired satisfactorily. We built a database of microsatellite allele frequencies for three Brazilian populations -Amazonas, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo. The distributions of allele frequencies showed little variation between population groups. By means of statistical tests of χ2 using the program Arlequim 3.1 most alleles do not adhere to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium if performed separately for each of the populations. However, in the analysis performed with the whole set of three populations, there is high adherence to the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The three populations were grouped and compared pair-to-pair, showing that the genetic variation is greater within populations than between them. Statistical data about the power of exclusion, discrimination power and polymorphism information content for the five loci were determined for each STR and together to assess the potential of the system Pentaplex-ised in human identification. We observed that this multiplex system is suitable for human identification and that can be used in a complementary method with other systems for genetic analysis, by having a cumulative power of discrimination of 99.996% and 93.436% cumulative exclusion / O presente trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um novo sistema multiplex denominado PentaPlex-ISED, composto por 5 loci tipo microssatélites STR (D5S198498, D3S18773, GH15, D8S82535 e D11S118590). Esses microssatélites foram identificados no genoma humano, por meio do programa BLAST-N (GenBank). Primers específicos foram desenhados para amplificação via PCR. Primers fluorescentes foram sintetizados para permitir análise simultânea de vários amplicons (análise multiplex). Todos os loci microssatélites foram genotipados confirmando-se o alto grau de polimorfismo. Na validação do sistema, a concentração mínima de DNA para a amplificação dos loci incluídos nesse multiplex foi estimada em 0,25 ng. Diversos tipos de amostras biológicas (sangue, saliva, urina e sêmen) foram adquiridas satisfatoriamente. Foi construído um banco de dados de freqüências dos alelos microssatélites para três populações brasileiras (Amazonas, Rio de Janeiro e Espírito Santo). Confirmou-se a independência dos loci. As distribuições das freqüências alélicas apresentaram pouca variação entre os grupos populacionais. Por meio dos testes estatísticos de χ2, utilizando o programa Arlequim 3.1 verificou-se que a maioria dos loci não adere as condições do equilíbrio de Hardy-Weinberg se análise for feita separadamente em cada uma das populações. No entanto, na análise feita com o conjunto total das três populações, há aderência ao Equilíbrio de Hardy-Weinberg. As três populações foram agrupadas e comparadas par-a-par; mostrando-se que a variação genética é maior dentro das populações que entre elas. Os dados estatísticos sobre o poder de exclusão, poder de discriminação e o conteúdo de informação do polimorfismo, para os 5 loci foram determinados para cada STR e em conjunto para avaliar o potencial do sistema PentaPlex-ISED na identificação humana. Observou-se que este sistema multiplex é adequado para identificação humana e que pode ser usado de forma complementar com os outros sistemas de análises genéticas, por possuir um poder de discriminação acumulado em 99,996 % e o poder de exclusão acumulado em 93,436 %.

De nombreuses méthodes ont été développées dans le but d’estimer les apports génétiques (taux de mélange) de populations parentales au pool génétique d’une population mélangée. Certaines de ces méthodes ont été implémentées dans des logiciels, permettant une estimation plus ou moins rapide et précise des taux de mélange. Une comparaison complète des logiciels ADMIX (méthode des moindres carrés pondérés), ADMIX95 (méthode basée sur les identités géniques), Admix 2.0 (méthode basée sur la coalescence), Mistura (méthode de maximum de vraisemblance), LEA (méthode bayésienne de vraisemblance), et LEADMIX (méthode de maximum de vraisemblance basée sur la coalescence) a été menée. L’analyse a été faite à deux niveaux : intra-logiciel (test de chaque logiciel sous un jeu de paramètres définis), inter-logiciel (comparaison des logiciels entre eux). Les taux de mélange ont été estimés à partir de quatre types de marqueurs : autosomaux (groupes sanguins et gènes KIR), et uniparentaux (ADNmt et chromosome Y). Notre étude révèle que la précision et la fiabilité des estimations dépendent de l’adéquation du mélange étudié avec le modèle de la méthode employée, mais également d’un choix judicieux des loci et des populations parentales utilisés. La variabilité des estimations lors de modifications, même minimes, des paramètres de l’étude, nous amène à considérer que les contributions ne doivent pas être présentées sous forme de taux de mélange, mais d’« intervalles indicatifs de mélange » soulignant les tendances migratoires générales. / Different methods have been developed to estimate the genetic admixture contributions of parental populations to a hybrid one. Most of these methods are implemented in different software programs that provide estimates having variable accuracy. A full comparison between ADMIX (weighted least square), ADMIX95 (gene identity), Admix 2.0 (coalescent-based), Mistura (maximum-likelihood), LEA (likelihood-based) and LEADMIX (maximum-likelihood) software programs has been carried out, both at the “intra” (test of each software programs) and “inter” level (comparisons between them). We tested all of these programs on a real human population data set, using four kinds of markers, autosomal (Blood groups and KIR genes) and uniparental (mtDNA and Y-Chromosome). We demonstrated that the accuracy of the results depends not only on the method itself but also on the choice of loci and of parental populations. We consider that the results of admixture contribution rates obtained from human population data set should not be considered as an accurate value but rather as an indicative result and we suggest using an “Admixture Indicative Interval” as a measurement of admixture.

The Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network of BirdLife International aims to identify sites that are essential for the long-term conservation of the world’s avifauna. A number of global change events have the potential to negatively affect, either directly or indirectly, most bird species, biodiversity in general and associated ecological processes in these areas identified as IBAs. To assist conservation decisions, I assessed a suite of ten landscape scale anthropogenic pressures to 115 Important Bird Areas (IBAs) in South Africa, both those currently placing pressures on IBAs and those that constitute likely future vulnerability to transformation. These threats are combined with irreplaceability, a frequently used measure of conservation importance, to identify the suite of IBAs which are high priority sites for conservation interventions: those with high irreplaceability and are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. A total of 22 (19%) of the South African IBAs are highly irreplaceable and are highly vulnerable to at least some of the pressures assessed. Afforestation, current and potential future patterns of alien plant invasions affect the largest number of highly irreplaceable IBAs. Only 9% of the area of highly irreplaceable IBAs is formally protected. A total of 81 IBAs (71%) are less than 5% degraded or transformed. This result, together with seven highly irreplaceable IBAs found outside of formally protected areas with lower human densities than expected by chance provides an ideal opportunity for conservation interventions. However, all the pressures assessed vary geographically, with no discernible systematic pattern that might assist conservation managers to design effective regional interventions. Furthermore, I used the newly emerging technique of ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change on endemic birds in relation to the IBAs network. I used 50 endemic species, eight bioclimatic envelope models, four climate change models and two methods of transformation to presence or absence, which essentially creates 2400 projections for the years 2070-2100. The consensual projection shows that climate change impacts are very likely to be severe. The majority of species (62%) lose climatically suitable space and 99% of grid cells show species turnover. Five species lose at least 85% of climatically suitable space. The current locations of the South African Important Bird Areas network is very likely ineffective to conserve endemic birds under climate change along a “business a usual” emissions scenario. Many IBAs show species loss (41%; 47 IBAs) and species turnover (77%; 95 IBAs). However, an irreplaceability analysis identified mountainous regions in South Africa as irreplaceable refugia for endemic species, and some of these regions are existing IBAs. These IBAs should receive renewed conservation attention, as they have the potential to substantially contribute to a flexible conservation network under realistic scenarios of climate change. Considering all the global change threats assessed in this study, the Amersfoort-Bethal-Carolina District and the Grassland Biosphere Reserve (IBA codes: SA018; SA020) are the key IBAs in South Africa for conservation prioritisation. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted

Introduction: The Aedes aegypti mosquito is responsible for the transmission of Yellow Fever, Dengue, Chikungunya and Zikavirus, making it a deadly vector and global public health threat. Zikavirus and Chikungunya, which were previously restricted to smaller geographic areas, have both appeared in the Western Hemisphere in the past three years and spread to areas where A. aegypti are present. This means that the pathogens have now entered areas in which the population has no previous immunity, which can lead to extensive outbreaks and epidemics. As the effects of global climate change become apparent, the areas of the globe that are suitable for inhabitance by A. aegypti may change. Additionally, this vector prefers human hosts for blood meals and requires standing water to breed, which is often created by water storage containers. This means that increasing urbanization and human population density are likely to put populations at higher risk of exposure to this vector. Methods: To create maps of the future risk of exposure to Aedes aegypti globally, species occurrence data for the vector and the Maxent modeling approach were used. Current and projected climate data were downloaded from WorldClim.org for the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used to model future climate change. Human population density, projected to 2050, the same timeframe as the future climate data, were used to model changes in human populations. To identify areas at high risk for future presence of A. aegypti populations, current and future models were compared across areas with at least a 50% probability of increased risk. These results where then used to create maps displaying high risk areas. Results: The AUC, an indicator of model fit, signaled that the models had high predictive power. However, high omission rates indicated that the trade-off of risk mapping may be a need to decrease probability thresholds below 50% to capture the full at-risk population. Future high-risk areas were most often those surrounding current cities, which supports the idea that the combination of urbanization and increasing human population density will work synergistically to increase the disease burden within and around urban centers. Additionally, expansion at the current geographic margins of this species shows that incursion into currently non-endemic areas is possible. Conclusions: Urban and peri-urban populations are likely to be at higher risk of exposure compared to rural areas due to global climate change and changes in population density. Attempts to model expansion of vector habitats should consider how these human population characteristics will change the risk to populations and how to best identify the areas at highest risk. Thresholds for the probability of a population being at risk of exposure to a vector may need to be different from those required to determine whether or not a habitat is suitable for a species. Appropriately determining which areas are high-risk results in maps and models can then be used to identify areas where climate change mitigation and vector control efforts are likely to have the highest impacts.

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is responsible for transmission of four vector-borne diseases that cause considerable global morbidity and mortality. Projections of the future effects of global climate change indicate that expansion of this species due to changing habitats is possible. Furthermore, since A. aegypti is highly dependent on human populations for feeding and egg-laying sites, changing human population characteristics are likely to alter the risk of exposure for humans based on geographic location. This study aims to create future potential risk maps for human exposure to A. aegypti using human population density as a predictor. Using current population density data and future growth trajectories, high-resolution human population density forecasts were created for 2050, then included as variables in ecological niche models developed using Maxent. Species occurrence data and high resolution climate data for current and future conditions (best and worst case scenarios) were included in the model, as well. Model fit indices and variable contributions indicated that the inclusion of human population density improves model accuracy for A. aegypti. Risk maps created by these models showed that areas currently adjacent to large cities within endemic regions, such as central Africa and western Brazil, are likely to see the greatest increase in risk to human populations. This corroborates current projections on increasing urbanization in the future and suggests that these models can be used to target interventions in high risk areas.