The demographic structure seems to change dramatically over the next 50 years in the Czech Republic. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of expected demographic changes on the future development of a real interest rate and international capital flows. In order to simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes upon the mentioned variables we apply a computable overlapping generations model. The real interest rate development is simulated under a closed economy assumption. As a result of the future expected demographic changes labour-capital ratio tends to fall, i.e. the real interest rate diminishes. The range of a change is significantly affected by a public budget closure rule. In case of an endogenous income tax rate, the real interest rate falls down by 0.5 percentage point. On the contrary, the real interest rate decreases by almost 1 percentage point in case when public transfers adjusted. Assuming an open economy, we simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes on the international capital flows between the domestic economy and the rest of the world. In case of increasing ratio of older agents, the aggregate domestic wealth surpasses the demand for capital by domestic firms. As a result a part of domestic capital is exported abroad. Increasing level of net foreign assets contributes to positive change in ratio of the balance of payment to the domestic production in a range from 2 to 5 percentage points over next 40 years if income taxes or public transfers change respectively.

Development and description of the nominal exchange rate of the dollar since 1945. Specification of determinants, which affected dollar exchange rate in the period. Consequences for United states economy and stability of the world fiscal system. Relation between dollar exchange rate and price of gold, relation between dollar exchange rate and price of crude oil. Relation betweén dollar exchange rate and significant financial crisis. Deskripce vývoje nominálního kursu dolaru v období od r. 1945 do současnosti. Určení faktorů, které tento vývoj ovlivňovaly. Důsledky pro ekonomiku USA a stabilitu světového finančního systému. Souvislost vývoje kursu dolaru se změnami cen zlata a ropy. Souvislost s významnějšími finančními krizemi.

Deflation, today understood mainly as a decrease in price level, is in the eyes of the mainstream economists the threat and danger of the economic development. This view is based on the experience from the Economic Crisis between 1929 and 1933 and later development in Japan. Therefore, the price stability is nowadays comprehended as a non decline in price index; monetary policy actually states the sustainable increase as a goal. The Austrian School of Economics uses the original definition of the words inflation and deflation and defines them as the increase and decrease of money supply. Modern interpretation of these terms means for them a dangerous misunderstanding whose result is misapprehension of causal connections between individual phenomena. This leads not only to incorrect conclusions but, above all, to disruption of the economic system, price and production structure, and development of economic cycles caused by artificial increase in money supply, which brings profit to certain groups.

Thesis "Money, Time and Information: An Austrian Approach" presents analysis on theory of money through classic view of Austrian economics which is combined with mutual dependence of system complexity, time and information. Money are considered as market emergent phenomena and therefore as its basic element. Spontaneous processes leads into origin of complex economic structures which are not static, but in constant evolution. Emerging complexity makes reduction of economic phenomena to aggregates or index numbers impossible. It is therefore important to comprehend these problems in context of structure and time in which structural change come into existence. This thesis emphasizes relation of money to informational and intertemporal role of prices and interest rate. This approach is then applied to possibility of monetary and regulatory policy to perceive all those complex interdependencies.

Inflationen har i många länder varit låg sedan finanskrisen 2008. I försök öka inflationstakten har centralbanker sänkt sina räntor till rekordlåga nivåer. I Danmark, Schweiz och Sverige har styrräntorna varit negativa. John B Taylor föreslog 1993 en makroekonomisk regel med syfte att kunna ge en prognos för styrräntan. Enligt Taylorregeln kan styrräntan förklaras av tidigare perioders inflationstakt och bruttonationalprodukt. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka Taylorregelns empiriska relevans i Danmark, Schweiz och Sverige under perioden 2000 till 2018. Två tester genomförs. Det första är att, med en linjär regressionsmodell, undersöka sambandet mellan styrränta, inflationsgap och BNP-gap. Det andra är ett Granger-kausalitetstest för att se om den implicerade kausaliteten i Taylorregeln stämmer. Granger-testet bygger på resultaten från en vektor autoregression. Resultaten i denna uppsats visar att det finns ett samband mellan inflationstakt och styrränta, men inte mellan BNP-gap och styrränta i de valda länderna under undersökningsperioden. Vidare visar resultaten att kausaliteten går från inflationsgap och BNP-gap mot styrränta, som Taylorregeln föreslår. Resultatet lyckas inte påvisa att negativa styrräntor skulle påverka Taylorregelns relevans. / The rate of inflation has been low in many countries since the financial crisis in 2008. In attempts to increase the inflation rate, central banks have lowered their interest rates to historically low levels. In Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden, the central banks key interest rates have been negative. In 1993, John B Taylor proposed a macroeconomic rule with the aim of providing a forecast for the key interest rate. According to the Taylor rule, the policy rate can be explained by the inflation rate and gross domestic product of previous periods. This paper aims to investigate the empirical relevance of the Taylor rule in Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden during the period 2000 to 2018. To do this, two tests are performed. The first is that, with a linear regression model, investigate the relationship between the key interest rate, the inflation gap and the GDP gap. The second is a Granger causality test to see if the implicit causality of the Taylor rule is correct. The Granger test is based on the results of a vector autoregression. The results of this paper show that there is a correlation between the rate of inflation and the key interest rate, but not between the GDP gap and the key interest rate in the selected countries during the investigation period. Furthermore, the results show that causality goes from the inflation gap and the GDP gap towards the key interest rate, as the Taylor rule suggests. The result does not suggest that negative key interest rates would affect the relevance of the Taylor rule.

Many entrepreneurs and companies use loans to cover their business needs. Usually it is difficult to choose the best offer. The possible solution is the utilization of methods of multiple-criteria decision-making, which make the decision process easier. The goal of this thesis is to describe these methods and use them practically to choose the best loan offer. It was found out that most of the companies do not use these methods. The results are usually significantly affected by the criterion which was the most preferred. For the most of the companies the offer made by MONETA Money Bank, a.s. was the most favourable.

本研究以免疫理論（Immunization Theory）與投資組合理論（Portfolio Theory）來架構退休基金的資產負債管理模型，希望在免除利率風險的情況下，極大化退休基金的投資報酬率。本文以退撫基金86年到88年實際投資的實證資料及其對未來給付支出的預測模擬值，在不同考慮年限與提撥率下，建議其最適投資組合，並計算出資產負債管理的成本。最後，再以84年到88年市場平均資料的實證結果，支持並驗證我們以退撫基金內部資料所做的實證結果。研究發現： 1、資產負債管理的成本相當少，因此退撫基金應該儘早進行資產負債管理。若以資產負債管理前後效率前緣下投資報酬率的差異為資產負債管理的成本，以退撫基金內部資料的研究顯示，資產負債管理的平均成本為0.133﹪；以市場平均資料的研究顯示，資產負債管理的平均成本為0.234﹪。 2、在進行資產負債管理的分析後，退撫基金的薪資提撥率應提高至14.84﹪，才能確保未來的30年內，退撫基金不會因為利率變動而導致基金破產甚至無力清償。 3、要使退撫基金免於利率風險的年限愈長，其投資重心必須從短期票券和債券移到債券與股票或受益憑證上。 / This paper investigates the Asset-Liability Management for pension fund. We utilize Immunization Theory and Portfolio Theory selection model to immunize the surplus of pension funds against interest-rate fluctuations and to maximize expected return of pension fund simultaneously. In addition, we use the public trading data of the investment market in Taiwan from 1995 to1999 and the data from the Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System（TPERS）from1997 to 1999 to demonstrate the implementation of our model. We calculate the optimal asset allocation and the ALM cost under different time horizons and contribution rates. The empirical results from this study show that: 1、 The ALM cost is very small. Therefore, we suggest TPERS should start to implement ALM as soon as possible. Given the investment performance of TPERS, We find the ALM cost is 0.133﹪. Given the performance of the investment market, the ALM cost is 0.234﹪. 2、 The TPERS must increase its contribution rate to 14.84﹪ in order to make sure that the TPERS will not be insolvent as a result of interest-rate fluctuations in 30 years. 3、 To prolong the period over which the TPERS can immunize its surplus against interest-rate fluctuations, a large proportion of the investment asset should be allocate from commercial paper and bond to bond and stock.

隨著金融市場的開放，越來越多的金融商品被開發出來以迎合市場參予者的需求，利率衍生性金融商品是一種以利率為標的的一種新金融商品，而這種新金融商品的交易量也是相當的可觀。我們在設計金融商品的第一步就是要去定價，在現實社會中利率是隨機波動的而不是像在B-S的選擇權公式中是固定的。隨機利率模型的用途就是在描述利率隨機波動的行為，進而對利率衍生性金融商品定價。本文嘗試以隨機利率模型估計台灣公債市場的殖利率曲線，而殖利率曲線的建立對於固定收益證券及其衍生性金融商品的定價是很重要的。在台灣大部分的利率模型的研究都是利用模擬的方式做比較，這也許是因為資料取得上的問題，本文利用CKLS(1992)所提出的方式以GMM(Generalized Method of Moment)的估計方法，利用隨機利率模型估計出台灣公債市場的殖利率曲線。本文中將三種隨機利率模型做比較他們分別為: Vasicek model (Vasicek 1977),、隨機均數的Vasicek 模型 (BDFS 1998) ，以及隨機均數與隨機波動度的Vasicek 模型 (Chen,Lin 1996). 後面兩個模型是首次出現在台灣的研究文獻中。在本文的附錄中將提出如何利用偏微分方程式(PDE)的方法求解出這三個模型的零息債券價格的封閉解(Closed-Form Solution)。文中利用台灣商業本票的價格當作零息債券價格的近似值，再以RMSE (Root mean squared Price Prediction Error)作為利率模型配適公債市場價格能力的指標。本文的主要貢獻在於嘗試以隨機利率模型估計出台灣公債市場的殖利率曲線，以及介紹了兩種首次在台灣研究文獻出現的利率模型，並且詳細推導其債券價格的封閉解，這對於想要建構一個新的隨機利率模型的研究人員而言，這是一個相當好的一個練習。 / With the growth in the area of financial engineering, more and more financial products are designed to meet demands of the market participants. Interest rate derivatives are those instruments whose values depend on interest rate changes. These derivatives form a huge market worth several trillions of dollars. The first step to design or develop a new financial product is pricing. In the real world interest rate is not a constant as in the B-S option instead it changes over time. Stochastic interest rate models are used for capturing the volatile behavior of interest rate and valuing interest rate derivatives. Appropriate models are necessary to value these instruments. Here we want to use stochastic interest rate models to construct the yield curve of Taiwan Government Bond (TGB) market. It is important to construct yield curve for pricing some financial instruments such as interest rate derivatives and fixed income securities. 　In Taiwan Although most of the research surrounding interest rate models is intended towards studying their usefulness in valuing and hedging complex interest rate derivatives by simulation. But just a few papers focus on empirical study. Maybe this is due to the problems for data collection. In this paper we want to use stochastic interest models to construct the yield curve of Taiwan’s Government Bond market. The estimation method that we use in this paper is GMM (Generalized Method of Moment) followed CKLS (1992). I introduce three different interest rate model, Vasicek model (Vasicek 1977), Vasicek with stochastic mean model (BDFS 1998) and Vasicek with stochastic mean and stochastic volatility model (Chen,Lin 1996). The last two models first appear in Taiwan’s research. In the Chapter 3, I will introduce these models in detail and in the appendix of my thesis I will show how to use PDE approach to derive each model’s zero coupon bond price close-form solution. In this paper we regard Taiwan CP (cmmercial Paper) rates as a proxy of short rate to estimate the parameters of each model. Finally we use these models to construct the yield curve of Taiwan Government Bonds market and to tell which model has the best fitting bond prices performance. Our metric of performance for these models is RMSE (Root mean squared Price Prediction Error). The main contribution of this study is to construct the yield curve of TGB market and it is useful to price derivatives and fixed income securities and I introduce two stochastic interest rates models, which first appear in Taiwan’s research. I also show how to solve the PDE for a bond price and it is a useful practice for someone who wants to construct his/her own model.

差額互換是一種能提供投資人在不直接引起匯率風險的情況下，參與他國貨幣市場，以增加投資收益及降低資金成本的新金融商品。依照支付與計價貨幣的不同，可分為以本國貨幣、外國貨幣以及第三國貨幣為支付與計價貨幣三種不同的型態。由於Wei(1994)、唐英傑(1997)的定價模型僅評價出上述前兩種型態的差額互換，本研究的主要目的即為延續Wei(1994)的定價方法，評價出最一般化的差額互換，即本國與外國利率交換而以第三國貨幣為支付貨幣的差額互換，並且證明上述的兩種差額互換為此一般化差額互換的特例。三種差額互換詳細的評價過程均附於附錄，提供有興趣的讀者參考。 評價方法主要是分別計算本國與外國的現金流量，再以本國與外國的期望值折現到目前的時點，同時透過匯率效果將外國的期望值轉換為本國的期望值，於是可將每期所支付利息的現值整理為各國零息債券價格與相關參數的組合。 最後分別針對三種差額互換的評價結果與避險比率從事敏感度分析，以及嘗試由模擬數據探討評價與利差、到期日以及相關係數的關聯性，由模擬數據分析顯示以下結果： 1.利率隨機過程的風險市價並未直接出現在公式中，而隱含在各國的零息債券中。 2.國內的利率風險對差額互換的評價影響程度較國外大。 3.利率風險相較於匯率風險對評價影響更劇烈。 4.差額互換的評價中，利率與匯率的相關性風險比利率間的相關性風險所佔的份量更為吃重。 5.匯率主要是透過利率與匯率的相關係數來影響差額互換的評價。 6.差額互換的到期日越長，目前市場上的利差對評價的影響越小，尤其是以第三國貨幣為支付貨幣的差額互換。 7.契約訂定升水的絕對值會小於目前的利差的情況，僅在以本國貨幣為支付貨幣的差額互換發生，而其餘兩種差額互換則因被匯率風險所干擾，而無法直接從模擬數據中看出契約訂定升水能否反映兩國利率期間結構的相對性。 8.利率與匯率的相關性風險對差額互換評價的影響效果最明顯，其次為匯率間的相關性風險，利率間的相關性風險則居最末位。 此篇論文主要探討一般化的差額互換評價與避險，以及變數對差額互換評價與避險的影響。透過模擬數據的整理與分析，能讓我們對該新金融商品的特性與所面臨風險有更進一步的了解，以期在從事該商品的交易與操作更能得心應手。 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的………………………………………………1 第二節 研究方法與研究架構………………………………………………2 第二章 差額互換概述………………………………………………………4 第一節 差額互換簡介………………………………………………………4 第二節 差額互換的產生動機………………………………………………6 第三節 差額互換的應用……………………………………………………8 第四節 差額互換的風險…………………………………………………14 第三章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………16 第四章 理論模型與評價……………………………………………………18 第一節 理論模型假設……………………………………………………18 第二節 差額互換評價……………………………………………………19 第五章 差額互換避……………………………………………………27 第六章 模擬與相關問題探討………………………………………………32 第一節 參數變動對差額互換評價的敏感度分析………………………32 第二節 敏感度分析模擬總結……………………………………………35 第三節 問題探討…………………………………………………………36 第四節 避險比率相關模擬………………………………………………39 第七章 結論…………………………………………………………………40 附錄A…………………………………………………………………………41 附錄B…………………………………………………………………………44 附錄C…………………………………………………………………………50 附錄D…………………………………………………………………………57 附錄E…………………………………………………………………………65 附錄F…………………………………………………………………………67 附錄G…………………………………………………………………………69 附錄H…………………………………………………………………………75 參考書目與文獻……………………………………………………………100

近年來台灣的市場利率持續下滑，可能造成保險公司無法實現對被保險人之高預定利率的保單給付承諾，利率風險已經成為壽險公司是否能繼續經營之重要關鍵。壽險公司如未能衡量利率變動風險而貿然推出保單，將對財務造成極大的負擔，不但會影響公司清償能力，亦會對社會造成衝擊，因此壽險公司應先衡量現在及未來將面臨多大的利率風險，做適當資產負債管理，以避免將來失卻清償能力。 　　本研究利用財務上平均存續期間（duration）觀念與Barney（1997）所提出之K值來衡量利率風險，以民國87-89年財務報表資料，實證研究利率風險會對那些經營指標產生影響，以喚起業界對於利率風險之重視。研究結果發現： 　　1.利率風險對於壽險公司之投資報酬率、股東權益報酬率有顯著的影響，並且呈負相關。 　　2.利率風險對於壽險公司之流動比率無顯著相關；與負債比率有顯著之正相關。 　　3.利率風險對於新契約保費成長率、保單繼續率無顯著影響，顯示國內並無明顯之逆中介情況。 　　4.壽險公司可藉由投資較長期之公債、公司債及減少保單貸款、不動產投資與固定資產項目之利率敏感度，以增加壽險公司之獲利性。 / The interest rates have been decreasing recently. Under this circumstance, it might be difficult for insurance companies to gain sufficient investment returns to fulfill the commitment of insurance policies. The interest-rate risk has become one of the critical factors for the solvency of life insurance companies. Therefore, life insurance companies should evaluate the impact of interest-rate risk and perform asset-liability management to prevent insolvency. 　　This study applies the concept of duration and K value (Barney 1997) to measure interest-rate risk and its impact on the operations of life insurance companies in Taiwan. The empirical analysis is conducted based on the financial data of life insurance companies in Taiwan during the period of 1998-2000. The empirical findings are listed as follows: 　　1.Interest-rate risk has a significantly negative impact on both investment return and ROE.. 　　2.Interest-rate risk does not have significant impact on current ratio of the life insurance companies, but it is positively related to debt ratio. 　　3.Interest-rate risk does not have significant impact on either new contract growth rate or policy renewal rate, which indicates that the process of disintermediation does not happen in life insurance industry in Taiwan. 　　4.By investing in the long-term government bonds and corporate bonds and reducing the interest-rate sensitivity of policy loans、investment on real estates and fixed assets , life insurance companies may be able to increase their profits.