Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir as metodologias de estimação da PD utilizadas na indústria financeira. Além disso, contextualizar a aplicação do trabalho ao IFRS9 e seu direcionamento para o tema de Risco de Crédito. Historicamente os grandes bancos múltiplos utilizam variadas metodologias econométricas para modelar a Probabilidade de Descumprimento (PD),um dos métodos mais tradicionais é a regressão logística, entretanto com a necessidade do cálculo da Perda Esperada de Crédito através do IFRS9, se torna necessário mudar o paradigma de estimação para uma abordagem forward-looking, isto está sendo interpretado por muitas instituições e consultorias como a inclusão de fatores e variáveis projetadas dentro do processo de estimação, ou seja, não serão utilizados apenas os dados históricos para prever o descumprimento ou inadimplência. Dentro deste contexto será proposto uma abordagem que une a estimação da Probabilidade de Descumprimento com a inclusão de um fator foward-looking. / This paper aims to discuss the methodologies used to estimate the Probability Of Default used in the financial industry. In addition, contextualize the application of the work to IFRS9 requirements and its targeting to the Credit Risk theme. Historically large multi-banks use a variety of econometric methodologies to model the Probability of Default, one of the more traditional methods is logistic regression. However, with the need to calculate the expected credit loss through IFRS9, it becomes necessary to change the estimation paradigm to a forwardlooking approach, this is being interpreted by many institutions and consultancies companies as the inclusion of factors and variables projected within the estimation process, that is, not only historical data are used to predict the default. Within this context will be proposed an approach that joins the estimation of Probability of Default with the inclusion of a forward-looking factor.

O objetivo deste trabalho é empreender uma análise de um campo discursivo das práticas que conferem à surdez o estatuto de particularidade linguística e cultural. Para tanto, foi realizada pesquisa etnográfica em espaços caracterizados pela presença de sistemas de comunicação gestuais-visuais normatizados sob a forma da Língua Brasileira de Sinais (LIBRAS). Atentou-se também a aspectos históricos relativos à surdez e a formas disciplinares constitutivas da LIBRAS. Acompanhar o percurso de líderes surdos em espaços variados foi fundamental para revelar uma normatividade na qual a surdez é afirmada e performatizada em termos de língua e cultura. Ao mesmo tempo são constituídas tensões, disputas e lutas em torno dessa normatividade. Categorias identitárias, tais como cultura surda e comunidade surda, são constantemente mobilizadas por profissionais que atuam em defesa da libras e são referidas sobretudo a sujeitos classificados como surdos . Constatou-se, enfim, que líderes surdos ocupam posição de destaque ao atuarem como porta-vozes da coletividade linguística falante de libras. / The objective of this work is to analyze a discursive field of practices that grants deafness a status of linguistic and cultural particularity. For this purpose, ethnographic research was conducted in spaces characterized by the presence of gestural-visual communication systems normalized in the form of the Brazilian Sign Language (LIBRAS). Research on historical aspects regarding deafness and integral disciplinary forms of LIBRAS was also undertaken. Following the course of deaf leaders in varied spaces was crucial in revealing a normativity in which deafness is affirmed and performed in terms of language and culture. At the same time, tensions, disputes and struggles are formed around this normativity. Identifying categories, such as deaf culture and deaf community, are constantly mobilized by professionals that act in defense of LIBRAS and are referenced primarily in terms of subjects classified as deaf. Ultimately, it was determined that deaf leaders occupy a prominent position in acting as spokespeople for the linguistic collective of LIBRAS speakers.

Avhandlingens övergripande syfte var att undersöka fonologisk medvetenhet och skriftspråklig förmåga hos talande eller icke-talande barn, med lässvårigheter eller motoriska talsvårigheter. De huvudsakliga fynden i denna avhandling var: (1) För barn med lässvårigheter som befinner sig på en tidig nivå i sin läsutveckling bör intervention kring läs- och skrivförmågor fokusera på barnets svaghet snarare än styrkan vad gäller ordavkodning. (2) För barn med lässvårigheter hade såväl fonologisk som ortografisk intervention effekt på förmågan att läsa och skriva. Fonologisk intervention hade effekt även på barnen med lägst läsförmåga. (3) För barn med motoriska talsvårigheter var det signifikanta skillnader mellan de bästa och de sämsta läsarna vad gäller auditiv fonemdiskrimination och generella språkförmågor. (4) För barn med motoriska talsvårigheter hade fonologisk intervention effekt på förmågan att stava ord men inte på läsförmågan. (5) I en analys av nonsensord undersöktes stavfel hos en flicka med anartri. Fler stavfel återfanns i längre ord och en högre grad av fel återfanns i mitten av ord, vilket tyder på svårigheter med arbetsminne och med att segmentera ord. Fynden diskuteras i relation till fonologisk informationsbearbetning inom fyra delområden: fonologiska representationer, fonologisk produktion, fonologiskt minne och fonologisk medvetenhet. Talets betydelse för läs- och skrivförmågan är komplex. Även ett gravt avvikande tal kan ge fonologisk återkoppling och för barn med anartri tycks bristen på tal spela en viss roll. Denna avhandling har ett handikappvetenskapligt synsätt och bidrar till den övergripande förståelsen av fonologisk medvetenhet och skriftspråklig förmåga. Flera av fynden är direkt applicerbara i kliniska sammanhang. / The general aim of this thesis was to explore phonological awareness and written language in the presence and absence of speech in children with reading impairments and children with motor speech impairments. The main findings of the present thesis were: (1) For children with reading impairments who are at an early stage of reading development, interventions targeting reading and spelling should focus on their weakness rather than their strength in word decoding. (2) For children with reading impairments, phonological as well as orthographic intervention had effects on reading and spelling. The children with the lowest reading performance also showed effects of phonological intervention. (3) For children with motor speech impairments, significant differences were shown between low level readers and high level readers in the areas of auditory phoneme discrimination skills and general language skills. (4) For children with motor speech impairments, phonological intervention had effect on word spelling skills but not on reading skills. (5) In an analysis of non-word spelling errors of a girl with anarthria, more spelling errors were found on longer words, and a higher proportion of spelling errors were found in medial letter positions, implying deficit in segmentation of spoken words and working memory. The findings were discussed in relation to four subfields of phonological processing: phonological representations, phonological production, phonological memory and phonological awareness. The contributions of speech to reading and spelling are complex. Even a severely distorted speech can serve as a phonological feedback and for children with anarthria, the lack of speech does seem to play a role. The present thesis has a disability research approach and is a contribution to the overall understanding of phonological awareness and written language. Many of the findings are directly applicable to the clinical context.

Im Beitrag werden Anwendungen aus dem Web2.0-Bereich, die besonders geeignet sind, bestimmte Behinderungsgruppen in ihrem Kommunikationsverhalten zu unterstützen, identifiziert und klassifiziert. In Verbindung mit der Betrachtung von möglichen Barrieren in diesen Web2.0-Anwendungen kann daraus abgeleitet werden, welche Anwendungen besonders kommunikationsunterstützend für bestimmte Behinderungsgruppen wirken und welche Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Nutzungsraten getroffen werden sollten.

The absence of gold standard criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) impedes the comparison of research findings and the development of primary and secondary prevention strategies addressing the possible conversion to dementia. The objective of Study 1 was to compare the predictive ability of different MCI models as markers for incipient dementia in a longitudinal population-based Canadian sample. The utility of well-documented MCI criteria using data from persons who underwent a clinical examination in the second wave of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) was examined. Demographic characteristics, average neuropsychological test performance, and prevalence and conversion rates were calculated for each classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were employed to assess the predictive power of each cognitive classification. The highest prevalence and conversion rates were associated with case definitions of multiple-domain MCI. The only diagnostic criteria to significantly predict dementia five years later was the Cognitive Impairment, No Dementia (CIND) Type 2 case definition. It is estimated that more restrictive MCI case definitions fail to address the varying temporal increases in decline across different cognitive domains in the progression from normal cognitive functioning to dementia. Using data from the CSHA, the objective of Study 2 was to elucidate the clinical correlates that best differentiate between cognitive classifications. A machine learning algorithm was used to identify the symptoms that best discriminated between: 1) not cognitively impaired (NCI) and CIND; 2) CIND & demented; and 3) converting and non-converting CIND participants. Poor retrieval was consistently a significant predictor of greater cognitive impairment across all three questions. While interactions with other predictors were noted when differentiating CIND from NCI and demented from non-demented participants, retrieval was the sole predictor of conversion to dementia over five years. Importantly, the limited specificity and predictive values of the respective algorithms caution against their use as clinical markers of CIND, dementia, or conversion. Rather, it is recommended that the predictors serve as markers for ongoing monitoring and assessment. Overall, the results of both studies suggest that the architecture of pathological cognitive decline to dementia may not be captured by a single set of diagnostic criteria.

The absence of gold standard criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) impedes the comparison of research findings and the development of primary and secondary prevention strategies addressing the possible conversion to dementia. The objective of Study 1 was to compare the predictive ability of different MCI models as markers for incipient dementia in a longitudinal population-based Canadian sample. The utility of well-documented MCI criteria using data from persons who underwent a clinical examination in the second wave of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) was examined. Demographic characteristics, average neuropsychological test performance, and prevalence and conversion rates were calculated for each classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were employed to assess the predictive power of each cognitive classification. The highest prevalence and conversion rates were associated with case definitions of multiple-domain MCI. The only diagnostic criteria to significantly predict dementia five years later was the Cognitive Impairment, No Dementia (CIND) Type 2 case definition. It is estimated that more restrictive MCI case definitions fail to address the varying temporal increases in decline across different cognitive domains in the progression from normal cognitive functioning to dementia. Using data from the CSHA, the objective of Study 2 was to elucidate the clinical correlates that best differentiate between cognitive classifications. A machine learning algorithm was used to identify the symptoms that best discriminated between: 1) not cognitively impaired (NCI) and CIND; 2) CIND & demented; and 3) converting and non-converting CIND participants. Poor retrieval was consistently a significant predictor of greater cognitive impairment across all three questions. While interactions with other predictors were noted when differentiating CIND from NCI and demented from non-demented participants, retrieval was the sole predictor of conversion to dementia over five years. Importantly, the limited specificity and predictive values of the respective algorithms caution against their use as clinical markers of CIND, dementia, or conversion. Rather, it is recommended that the predictors serve as markers for ongoing monitoring and assessment. Overall, the results of both studies suggest that the architecture of pathological cognitive decline to dementia may not be captured by a single set of diagnostic criteria.

Introdução: Com o envelhecimento da população mundial projeta-se o crescimento das taxas de doenças potencialmente relacionadas à idade como as demências, especialmente a doença de Alzheimer (DA). Os sujeitos com Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve (CCL) são considerados uma população de risco para desenvolver demência, no entanto, as taxas de incidência de CCL e conversão para demência apresentam considerável variabilidade em parte atribuída a características da amostra e aos diferentes critérios utilizados. Objetivos: Determinar a incidência de demência e Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve em uma coorte de idosos saudáveis de base comunitária; determinar as variáveis demográficas, clínicas e sociais associadas ao desenvolvimento de prejuízo cognitivo, e avaliar o risco de progressão dos indivíduos com Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve para demência comparada com sujeitos cognitivamente normais. Métodos: Os dados foram derivados de uma coorte de idosos residentes na comunidade (N = 345), inicialmente saudáveis e independentes (Estudo PALA - Porto Alegre Longitudinal Aging - study). O seguimento inicial com duração máxima de oito anos teve o objetivo de avaliar a incidência de DA e CCL. Para avaliar a progressão de CCL para DA partimos de 10 anos de seguimento, incluindo os oito anos da primeira análise e consideramos um máximo de 70 meses (média de 45 meses) para avaliar a ocorrência dos novos desfechos. Os participantes que preencheram os critérios de inclusão do estudo e consentiram em participar foram avaliados com uma detalhada entrevista clínica composta de variáveis demográficas, clínicas e sociais. Os sintomas psiquiátricos foram avaliados pela escala SRQ - Self Report Questionnaire, escala MADRS - Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale e aplicados os critérios para depressão maior do Manual de Diagnóstico e Estatístico de Transtornos Mentais (4ª Edição; DSM-IV). O Mini Exame do Estado Mental (MEEM) e a Escala Clínica de Demência (CDR – Clinical Dementia Rating) foram aplicados para avaliação cognitiva. Adicionalmente a independência para as atividades da vida diária foram acessadas pela escala ADL - Activities of Daily Living. Para diagnóstico dos casos incidentes de doença de Alzheimer foi utilizado os critérios diagnósticos do DSM-IV e do NINCDS/ADRDA, associado à descrição dos critérios de Kawas para DA consistente. Para diagnóstico de Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve, o critério da Clínica Mayo foi aplicado para a primeira análise, e o critério para CCL do tipo Alzheimer (ou DA prodrômica) foi utilizado para a segunda análise tendo em vista a incorporação de dados disponíveis e a evolução dos critérios. As trajetórias possíveis do CCL foram classificadas em três categorias: conversão, estabilização e reconversão. Os sujeitos considerados para a primeira análise - casos incidentes de CCL e DA foram os participantes que apresentavam pelo menos uma visita de seguimento no período de oito anos a partir da linha de base (N = 245) e as análises estatísticas foram baseadas no diagnóstico estabelecido na última visita de seguimento. Para os falecidos durante o período, dados retrospectivos foram obtidos através de uma entrevista telefônica com um informante confiável. Os dados clínicos e demográficos de linha de base foram utilizados para cálculo dos fatores preditivos dos desfechos do estudo. Para a segunda análise – risco de conversão de CCL para DA – trajetórias do CCL, a amostra foi composta dos 21 indivíduos que desenvolveram CCL e 220 indivíduos cognitivamente normais (N = 241). Resultados: Os resultados da primeira análise mostraram taxa de incidência de CCL de 13,2 por 1.000 pessoas-ano e incidência de DA de 14,8 por 1.000 pessoas-ano. O desenvolvimento de prejuízo cognitivo foi associado com educação (razão de chance [RC] = 0,86) e o escore do MEEM de base (RC = 0,81). Os resultados da segunda análise mostraram que dos 21 sujeitos com CCL, 38% desenvolveram demência, 24% permaneceram estáveis e 38% melhoraram. A taxa de conversão anual para DA foi de 8,5%, CCL foi associado significativamente a maior risco de conversão para DA (HR = 49,83; p = 0,004), mesmo ajustado para idade, escolaridade, sexo e escore no MEEM. Conclusão: A incidência de DA nessa amostra foi maior do que a descrita em estudo prévio realizado no Brasil, mas está dentro da variabilidade observada internacionalmente. Escores mais baixos no Mini Exame do Estado Mental na linha de base, mesmo que dentro da normalidade, e níveis mais baixos de educação foram preditores da ocorrência de prejuízo cognitivo. Quanto à trajetória do CCL, independentemente da heterogeneidade observada, os participantes com CCL do tipo Alzheimer apresentaram risco significativamente maior de desenvolver demência na DA, demonstrando o impacto do uso destes critérios que enfatizam o comprometimento da memória episódica de longo prazo e buscam identificar sujeitos com maior probabilidade de ser portadores de patologia Alzheimer. / Background: The increase of the rates of age-related diseases as dementia, especially Alzheimer's disease (AD), is projected with the aging of the world population. Subjects with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) are considered a population at risk for developing dementia. However, MCI incidence rates and rates of conversion to dementia have shown considerable variability that could be partially attributed to characteristics of the sample and to different criteria. Objective: To determine the incidence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in a cohort of community-based healthy elderly individuals; to determine the demographic, clinical and social variables associated with the development of cognitive impairment; and to assess the risk of progression of individuals with mild cognitive impairment to dementia compared with cognitively normal subjects. Methods: Data were derived from a cohort of elderly community residents (N = 345), who were initially healthy and independent (PALA – Porto Alegre Longitudinal Aging – study). The follow-up of a maximum of eight years was used to evaluate the incidence of AD and MCI. To evaluate the progression of MCI to dementia due to AD we set off the 10-year follow-up, including the previous 8-year of the first analysis, and consider the maximum of 70 months (mean 45 months) for these new outcomes. Participants who met the inclusion criteria of the study and consented to participate were evaluated with a detailed clinical interview consisted of demographic, clinical and social variables. Psychiatric symptoms were assessed with the SRQ scale (Self Report Questionnaire), the MADRS (Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale), and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th edition, DSM-IV) criteria for Major Depression. Cognitive assessment was checked with the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDR). Independence for the activities of daily living was assessed with the ADL scale (Activities of Daily Living). Incident cases of probable Alzheimer's disease were assigned through the DSM-IV and the NINCDS-ADRDA diagnostic criteria, with the additional designation from Kawas and colleagues of consistent AD. Detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment for the first analysis was carried out with the MCI Mayo Clinic criteria. The MCI of the Alzheimer type criteria (or Prodromal AD) were used for the second analysis, incorporating available data of the sample and the ongoing evolution of the criteria. The possible MCI trajectories were classified into three categories: conversion, stabilization, and reconversion. The subjects for the first analysis – MCI and AD incidence – were the participants who had at least one follow-up visit in the 8-year period from the baseline (N = 245), and the statistical analyzes were based on the diagnosis established in last follow-up interview. For the deceased during the period, retrospective data were obtained through a telephone interview with a knowledgeable collateral source focusing on dementia. The baseline clinical and demographic data were analyzed as predictors of the study outcomes. For the second analysis – risk of MCI progression to AD, and MCI trajectories – the sample was composed of 21 individuals who developed MCI and 220 cognitively normal subjects (N = 241). Results: The results of the first analysis showed the MCI incidence rate of 13.2 per 1,000 person-years and the AD incidence of 14.8 per 1,000 person-years. The development of cognitive impairment was associated with education (odds ratio [OR] = 0.86) and baseline MMSE scores (OR = 0.81). The results of second analysis showed that of the 21 MCI subjects, 38% developed dementia, 24% remained stable, and 38% improved. The annual AD conversion rate was 8.5%, and MCI was significantly associated with increased risk of progression to AD (HR = 49.83; p = 0.004), even adjusted for age, education, gender and MMSE scores. Conclusion: The AD incidence in this sample was higher than that described in a previous study carried out in Brazil, but was within the international estimates. Lower baseline scores on the Mini Mental State Examination, although within the normal range, and lower levels of education were predictors of cognitive impairment. Regardless the observed heterogeneity of the MCI trajectories, participants with MCI of the Alzheimer type showed significantly higher risk of developing dementia due to AD, demonstrating the impact of the emphasis on the episodic long-term memory impairment of the criteria, which finally searches to identify those individuals more likely to have Alzheimer's pathology.

Submitted by Viviane Lima da Cunha (viviane@biblioteca.ufpb.br) on 2016-02-16T12:43:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 13238594 bytes, checksum: 276fb476c19b9bf5bb8160c24835f54d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-16T12:43:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 13238594 bytes, checksum: 276fb476c19b9bf5bb8160c24835f54d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-13 / People with hearing or visually impairment face many di culties to participate in the social life, to communicate with other people and to access information. Their participation in cinemas, theaters, educational environment, among others, is often limited due to the lack of solutions that enable their interaction and participation. For the deaf, for example, the accessibility resources normally provided at the cinema room is limited to subtitle text format. This is the predominant solution on the current scenario. However, on the other hand, there are some studies that are in progress to try to solve these problems, such as the use of second screen devices to project content with sign language. For the blind, the accessibility problem is further aggravated because currently there are few cinema rooms that o er the resources of audio description. Normally, the blind rely solely on the help of family or friends to narrate the events during the exhibition of the lm. The accessibility point of view, these approaches are considered ine cient, since the deaf, for example, have enough trouble reading and writing in the spoken language of their country. Therefore, to minimize these problems, this paper presents a computational solution capable of automatically generating from the subtitles, video tracks with Brazilan Sign Language (Libras) windows for deaf users, and from the movie script, produce audio description for blind users and distribute such content for users using the second screen devices. Experiments using a prototype showed that the solution has the potential to generate e ciently contents intelligible for this users, increasing your access to this technology type. / Pessoas com de ciência auditiva ou visual enfrentam diversos entraves para participar da vida em sociedade, para se comunicar com outras pessoas e ter acesso à informação. A participação dessas pessoas em ambientes como cinemas, teatros, escolas, enquanto navegam na Internet, entre outros, é muitas vezes limitada devido a ausência de soluções acessíveis que viabilizem sua participação e interação. Para os surdos, por exemplo, os recursos de acessibilidade normalmente oferecidos nas salas de cinema se limitam a legendas no formato texto. Esta é a solução predominante no cenário atual. Porém, em contrapartida, existem algumas pesquisas que encontram-se em desenvolvimento para tentar resolver esses problemas, como a utilização de dispositivos de segunda tela para projetar os conteúdos com Língua de Sinais. Para os cegos, o problema de acessibilidade é ainda mais agravante, pois, atualmente, existem poucas salas de cinema que disponibilizam os recursos da Audiodescrição. Normalmente, os cegos contam apenas com a ajuda de familiares ou amigos para narrar os acontecimentos durante a exibição do filme. Do ponto de vista da acessibilidade, essas abordagens são consideradas inefi cientes, uma vez que os surdos, por exemplo, têm bastante dificuldade de ler e escrever na língua oral do seu país. Portanto, para minimizar esses problemas, este trabalho apresenta uma solução computacional capaz de gerar automaticamente a partir das legendas, trilhas de vídeo com janelas de Libras para usuários surdos, e a partir do roteiro do fi lme, gerar Audiodescrição para usuários cegos e distribuir esses conteúdos para usuários usando dispositivos de segunda tela. Experimentos com um protótipo mostraram que a solução tem potencial para gerar de forma e ciente conteúdos inteligíveis para esses usuários, melhorando o seu acesso a esse tipo de tecnologia.

Background: The question on how to account for goodwill has long been a subject that causes big debates among actors within financial accounting. In 2004, the IASB released a new standard, IFRS 3 – Business Combinations, that changed the accounting for goodwill. The interpretation for goodwill impairments according to IAS 36 has led to findings in studies that show patterns of earnings management and that a possible gap exists between the standard setter’s basic aim of IAS 36 and what actually is done by the practitioners. Purpose: Examine what determines the amount of reported goodwill impairment for firms listed on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm (OMXS). Method: To fulfil the purpose of the thesis, the authors takes a quantitative research approach by a using a multiple linear regression model. The regression model is based on proxies for economic impairment, earnings management and corporate governance mechanisms from previous literature (Stenheim & Madsen, 2016; AbuGhazaleh, Al-Hares, & Roberts, 2011; Riedl, 2004). The data used for the regression model has been collected from published annual reports of 69 firms listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm OMX (OMXS), between the years 20072016. Conclusion: The findings of the thesis show that the accounting behaviour of “Big Bath” is exercised for firms listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm OMX (OMXS). The proxies for economic impairment have, to some extent, an impact on the amount of reported goodwill impairment, but the majority of the proxies for corporate governance mechanisms does not affect the amount of reported goodwill impairment. These findings might suggest that the standard IAS 36, which regulates the accounting for goodwill, may not entirely fulfil its purpose of creating a more transparent financial reporting.

Introdução: Com o envelhecimento da população mundial projeta-se o crescimento das taxas de doenças potencialmente relacionadas à idade como as demências, especialmente a doença de Alzheimer (DA). Os sujeitos com Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve (CCL) são considerados uma população de risco para desenvolver demência, no entanto, as taxas de incidência de CCL e conversão para demência apresentam considerável variabilidade em parte atribuída a características da amostra e aos diferentes critérios utilizados. Objetivos: Determinar a incidência de demência e Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve em uma coorte de idosos saudáveis de base comunitária; determinar as variáveis demográficas, clínicas e sociais associadas ao desenvolvimento de prejuízo cognitivo, e avaliar o risco de progressão dos indivíduos com Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve para demência comparada com sujeitos cognitivamente normais. Métodos: Os dados foram derivados de uma coorte de idosos residentes na comunidade (N = 345), inicialmente saudáveis e independentes (Estudo PALA - Porto Alegre Longitudinal Aging - study). O seguimento inicial com duração máxima de oito anos teve o objetivo de avaliar a incidência de DA e CCL. Para avaliar a progressão de CCL para DA partimos de 10 anos de seguimento, incluindo os oito anos da primeira análise e consideramos um máximo de 70 meses (média de 45 meses) para avaliar a ocorrência dos novos desfechos. Os participantes que preencheram os critérios de inclusão do estudo e consentiram em participar foram avaliados com uma detalhada entrevista clínica composta de variáveis demográficas, clínicas e sociais. Os sintomas psiquiátricos foram avaliados pela escala SRQ - Self Report Questionnaire, escala MADRS - Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale e aplicados os critérios para depressão maior do Manual de Diagnóstico e Estatístico de Transtornos Mentais (4ª Edição; DSM-IV). O Mini Exame do Estado Mental (MEEM) e a Escala Clínica de Demência (CDR – Clinical Dementia Rating) foram aplicados para avaliação cognitiva. Adicionalmente a independência para as atividades da vida diária foram acessadas pela escala ADL - Activities of Daily Living. Para diagnóstico dos casos incidentes de doença de Alzheimer foi utilizado os critérios diagnósticos do DSM-IV e do NINCDS/ADRDA, associado à descrição dos critérios de Kawas para DA consistente. Para diagnóstico de Comprometimento Cognitivo Leve, o critério da Clínica Mayo foi aplicado para a primeira análise, e o critério para CCL do tipo Alzheimer (ou DA prodrômica) foi utilizado para a segunda análise tendo em vista a incorporação de dados disponíveis e a evolução dos critérios. As trajetórias possíveis do CCL foram classificadas em três categorias: conversão, estabilização e reconversão. Os sujeitos considerados para a primeira análise - casos incidentes de CCL e DA foram os participantes que apresentavam pelo menos uma visita de seguimento no período de oito anos a partir da linha de base (N = 245) e as análises estatísticas foram baseadas no diagnóstico estabelecido na última visita de seguimento. Para os falecidos durante o período, dados retrospectivos foram obtidos através de uma entrevista telefônica com um informante confiável. Os dados clínicos e demográficos de linha de base foram utilizados para cálculo dos fatores preditivos dos desfechos do estudo. Para a segunda análise – risco de conversão de CCL para DA – trajetórias do CCL, a amostra foi composta dos 21 indivíduos que desenvolveram CCL e 220 indivíduos cognitivamente normais (N = 241). Resultados: Os resultados da primeira análise mostraram taxa de incidência de CCL de 13,2 por 1.000 pessoas-ano e incidência de DA de 14,8 por 1.000 pessoas-ano. O desenvolvimento de prejuízo cognitivo foi associado com educação (razão de chance [RC] = 0,86) e o escore do MEEM de base (RC = 0,81). Os resultados da segunda análise mostraram que dos 21 sujeitos com CCL, 38% desenvolveram demência, 24% permaneceram estáveis e 38% melhoraram. A taxa de conversão anual para DA foi de 8,5%, CCL foi associado significativamente a maior risco de conversão para DA (HR = 49,83; p = 0,004), mesmo ajustado para idade, escolaridade, sexo e escore no MEEM. Conclusão: A incidência de DA nessa amostra foi maior do que a descrita em estudo prévio realizado no Brasil, mas está dentro da variabilidade observada internacionalmente. Escores mais baixos no Mini Exame do Estado Mental na linha de base, mesmo que dentro da normalidade, e níveis mais baixos de educação foram preditores da ocorrência de prejuízo cognitivo. Quanto à trajetória do CCL, independentemente da heterogeneidade observada, os participantes com CCL do tipo Alzheimer apresentaram risco significativamente maior de desenvolver demência na DA, demonstrando o impacto do uso destes critérios que enfatizam o comprometimento da memória episódica de longo prazo e buscam identificar sujeitos com maior probabilidade de ser portadores de patologia Alzheimer. / Background: The increase of the rates of age-related diseases as dementia, especially Alzheimer's disease (AD), is projected with the aging of the world population. Subjects with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) are considered a population at risk for developing dementia. However, MCI incidence rates and rates of conversion to dementia have shown considerable variability that could be partially attributed to characteristics of the sample and to different criteria. Objective: To determine the incidence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in a cohort of community-based healthy elderly individuals; to determine the demographic, clinical and social variables associated with the development of cognitive impairment; and to assess the risk of progression of individuals with mild cognitive impairment to dementia compared with cognitively normal subjects. Methods: Data were derived from a cohort of elderly community residents (N = 345), who were initially healthy and independent (PALA – Porto Alegre Longitudinal Aging – study). The follow-up of a maximum of eight years was used to evaluate the incidence of AD and MCI. To evaluate the progression of MCI to dementia due to AD we set off the 10-year follow-up, including the previous 8-year of the first analysis, and consider the maximum of 70 months (mean 45 months) for these new outcomes. Participants who met the inclusion criteria of the study and consented to participate were evaluated with a detailed clinical interview consisted of demographic, clinical and social variables. Psychiatric symptoms were assessed with the SRQ scale (Self Report Questionnaire), the MADRS (Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale), and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th edition, DSM-IV) criteria for Major Depression. Cognitive assessment was checked with the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDR). Independence for the activities of daily living was assessed with the ADL scale (Activities of Daily Living). Incident cases of probable Alzheimer's disease were assigned through the DSM-IV and the NINCDS-ADRDA diagnostic criteria, with the additional designation from Kawas and colleagues of consistent AD. Detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment for the first analysis was carried out with the MCI Mayo Clinic criteria. The MCI of the Alzheimer type criteria (or Prodromal AD) were used for the second analysis, incorporating available data of the sample and the ongoing evolution of the criteria. The possible MCI trajectories were classified into three categories: conversion, stabilization, and reconversion. The subjects for the first analysis – MCI and AD incidence – were the participants who had at least one follow-up visit in the 8-year period from the baseline (N = 245), and the statistical analyzes were based on the diagnosis established in last follow-up interview. For the deceased during the period, retrospective data were obtained through a telephone interview with a knowledgeable collateral source focusing on dementia. The baseline clinical and demographic data were analyzed as predictors of the study outcomes. For the second analysis – risk of MCI progression to AD, and MCI trajectories – the sample was composed of 21 individuals who developed MCI and 220 cognitively normal subjects (N = 241). Results: The results of the first analysis showed the MCI incidence rate of 13.2 per 1,000 person-years and the AD incidence of 14.8 per 1,000 person-years. The development of cognitive impairment was associated with education (odds ratio [OR] = 0.86) and baseline MMSE scores (OR = 0.81). The results of second analysis showed that of the 21 MCI subjects, 38% developed dementia, 24% remained stable, and 38% improved. The annual AD conversion rate was 8.5%, and MCI was significantly associated with increased risk of progression to AD (HR = 49.83; p = 0.004), even adjusted for age, education, gender and MMSE scores. Conclusion: The AD incidence in this sample was higher than that described in a previous study carried out in Brazil, but was within the international estimates. Lower baseline scores on the Mini Mental State Examination, although within the normal range, and lower levels of education were predictors of cognitive impairment. Regardless the observed heterogeneity of the MCI trajectories, participants with MCI of the Alzheimer type showed significantly higher risk of developing dementia due to AD, demonstrating the impact of the emphasis on the episodic long-term memory impairment of the criteria, which finally searches to identify those individuals more likely to have Alzheimer's pathology.