In der vorliegenden Arbeit soll der Zusammenhang zwischen Staatsverschuldung und Inflation untersucht werden. Es werden theoretische Übertragungswege von der Staatsverschuldung über die Geldmenge und die langfristigen Zinsen hin zur Inflation gezeigt. Aufbauend auf diesen theoretischen Überlegungen werden die Variablen Staatsverschuldung, Verbraucherpreisindex, Geldmenge M3 und langfristige Zinsen im Rahmen eines Vektor-Fehlerkorrekturmodells untersucht. In der empirischen Analyse werden die Variablen für Deutschland in dem Zeitraum vom 1. Quartal 1991 bis zum 4. Quartal 2010 betrachtet. In ein Vektor-Fehlerkorrekturmodell fließen alle Variablen als potentiell endogen in das Modell ein. Die Ermittlung der Kointegrationsbeziehungen und die Schätzung des Vektor-Fehlerkorrekturmodells erfolgen mithilfe des Johansen-Verfahrens. / In the following study the relation between the public debt and the inflation will be analysed. The transmission from the public debt to the inflation through the money supply and long term interest rate will be shown. Based on these theoretical thoughts the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and the long term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model. In the empirical part of this paper we will evaluate the timeperiod from the first quarter in 1991 until the fourth quarter in 2010 for Germany. In a vector error correction model every variable can be taken as endogenous. The variables in the model will be tested for cointegrated relationships and estimated with the Johansen-Approach.

Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of inflation expectations, especially when monetary policy is rendered ineffective and there is almost perfect substitutability between money and bonds due to the zero bound condition of interest rates. Given the canonical theories of rational and adaptive expectations, this paper will use a simple model of the economy to measure the effect of various macroeconomic variables on the formation of inflation expectations. It will test to see how consumers, economists and the market measure and forecast inflation both in the short and in the long run.

The vacuum of quantum field theory is not empty space but filled with quantum vacuum fluctuations, which give rise to many intriguing effects. The first part of this Thesis addresses cosmic inflation, where the quantum fluctuations of the inflaton field freeze and get amplified in the expanding universe. Afterwards, we turn our attention towards Bose-Einstein condensates, a laboratory system. Since most of our calculations are performed using a mean-field expansion, we will study the accuracy of a finite-range interaction potential onto such an expansion. Exploiting the universality of quantum fluctuations, several aspects of cosmic inflation will be identified in ballistically expanding Bose-Einstein condensates. The effective action technique for calculating the quantum backreaction will be scrutinized. Finally, we consider dynamic quantum phase transitions in the last part of this Thesis. To this end two specific scenarios will be investigated: firstly, the structure formation during the superfluid to Mott-insulator transition in the Bose-Hubbard model; and secondly, the formation of spin domains as a two-dimensional spin-one Bose gas is quenched from the (polar) paramagnetic to the (planar) ferromagnetic phase. During this quench, the symmetry of the ground state is spontaneously broken and vortices (topological defects) form.

published_or_final_version / abstract / Economics / Master / Master of Social Sciences

, Diss--Universität Heidelberg, 2001.

The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.

Submitted by JONAS DOI (jonas.nevasca@gmail.com) on 2015-09-04T23:26:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL JONAS.pdf: 427402 bytes, checksum: e027f128b8dbb648fec63fc2a1c487c3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-08T17:33:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL JONAS.pdf: 427402 bytes, checksum: e027f128b8dbb648fec63fc2a1c487c3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-08T20:04:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL JONAS.pdf: 427402 bytes, checksum: e027f128b8dbb648fec63fc2a1c487c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / O prêmio de inflação é calculado pela diferença entre a inflação implícita (diferença entre a taxa de juro nominal e a taxa de juro real encontrada nos títulos públicos) e a projeção de inflação dos agentes econômicos. A mediana do prêmio de inflação no Brasil varia entre 0.2% e 0.5% ao ano. O presente artigo encontra evidência empírica de que um aumento na incerteza dos agentes sobre a expectativa de inflação impacta positivamente o prêmio de inflação. O grau de incerteza dos agentes é medido neste trabalho pelo desvio padrão das projeções de inflação no relatório Focus do Banco Central. O primeiro modelo VAR foi testado com o desvio padrão e os prêmios de inflação para os horizontes de 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 e 36 meses, e apresentou resposta estatisticamente significativa positiva a um impulso no desvio padrão para todos os prêmios exceto os de horizontes de 3 e 6 meses. As respostas ao impulso são semelhantes para os diferentes horizontes. Um segundo modelo VAR foi testado com o desvio padrão, o prêmio de inflação com horizonte de 12 meses, a inclinação entre os prêmios de horizonte de 6 e 24 meses e uma borboleta entre os prêmios de horizonte de 3, 12 e 36 meses para verificar se a incerteza impacta também a forma da curva de prêmio de inflação. Esse não apresentou resposta estatisticamente significativa a um impulso no desvio padrão. Concluiu-se que a incerteza dos agentes impacta a curva de prêmio de inflação em nível, porém sem efeitos significativos no formato da curva. / The inflation premia is calculated by the difference between the inflation breakeven (difference between the nominal yield and the real yield embedded in the government bonds) with the inflation projection of the economic agents. The median of the inflation premia in Brazil vary from 0.2% to 0.5% per year. This article finds empirical evidence that an increase of the agents’ uncertainty over the inflation projections positively impacts the inflation premia. The uncertainty of the agents is measured by the standard deviation of the projections in the Focus report from the Brazil Central Bank. The first model VAR was tested with the standard deviation, the inflation premias for 3, 6, 9, 12, 25 and 36 months, and presented a statistically significant positive response to an impulse on the standard deviation to all inflation premias except for the 3 and 6 month maturities. The responses to the impulse are similar for all the maturities. The second model VAR was tested with the standard deviation, the 12 month inflation premia, the slope between 6 and 24 months and a butterfly between 3, 12 and 36 months inflation premia. This model did not presented a statistically significant response to an impulse on the standard deviation to the shape of the inflation premia curve. We concluded that the uncertainty of the projections impacts the level of the inflation premia curve, but without the significant effect on the shape of the curve.

Submitted by Carlos Roberto Simões Chaves (carloschaves_88@hotmail.com) on 2017-07-20T14:14:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Carlos Chaves_final_entrega.pdf: 1016182 bytes, checksum: e5eeabf21bc225b6b1308e739fd8bf80 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-08-29T15:27:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Carlos Chaves_final_entrega.pdf: 1016182 bytes, checksum: e5eeabf21bc225b6b1308e739fd8bf80 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-06T19:49:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Carlos Chaves_final_entrega.pdf: 1016182 bytes, checksum: e5eeabf21bc225b6b1308e739fd8bf80 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-19 / This paper examines the impact of expected inflation on stock returns and earnings per share projections for the next 12 months. We used the Ibovespa's weekly real returns and FOCUS survey for IPCA and Industrial Production growth. A one-percentage point increase in projected inflation over the next 12 months is associated with a decline of 0.56 percentage points in the weekly Ibovespa real change to a significance level of 1%. No statistically significant relationships were found between the expected inflation and the projections for Ibovespa's profits. It was verified that the Ibovespa's weekly returns also react negatively to the 5-year CDS oscillations and the VIX index. / Este trabalho examina o impacto da inflação esperada sobre os retornos das ações e as projeções de lucros por ação para os próximos 12 meses. Utilizamos os retornos reais semanais do Ibovespa e as expectativas da pesquisa FOCUS para o IPCA e crescimento da Produção Industrial. Um aumento de 1 ponto percentual na inflação projetada paras os próximos 12 meses está associado a um declínio de 0.56 pontos percentuais na variação real semanal do Ibovespa para um nível de significância de 1%. Não foram encontradas relações estatisticamente significativas entre a inflação esperada e as projeções para os lucros das empresas do Ibovespa. Verificou-se que os retornos semanais do Ibovespa também reagem negativamente às oscilações do CDS de 5 anos e o índice VIX.

Submitted by Michelle Chan (michellechan@bancobbm.com.br) on 2010-05-30T23:53:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_MichelleChan.pdf: 348582 bytes, checksum: a78d92ef3ddcf4c0fd546de43352a06d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza(vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2010-05-31T13:33:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_MichelleChan.pdf: 348582 bytes, checksum: a78d92ef3ddcf4c0fd546de43352a06d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-06-01T19:58:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_MichelleChan.pdf: 348582 bytes, checksum: a78d92ef3ddcf4c0fd546de43352a06d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-16 / The central purpose of this essay is to analyze the important variables of the inflation for the central bank’s monetary decision. Having in mind the importance of forward looking reaction of the monetary authorities in an inflation targeting regime, we study some short term inflation forecast models in order to find out which one has the most accurate prediction. In order to understand the brazilian inflacionary dinamics in these last years since the introduction of the inflation targeting regime, we analyse the dinamics of the inflation inercia and the passthrough. / O objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar as variáveis importantes da inflação para a decisão de política econômica do Banco Central. Considerando a importância de reações forward looking das autoridades monetárias num regime de metas de inflação, estudam-se alguns modelos de projeção de inflação de curto prazo para verificar qual modelo possui maior capacidade de previsão. Com o objetivo de entender a dinâmica inflacionária brasileira ao longo desses anos desde a implementação do sistema de metas de inflação, procura-se analisar a dinâmica da inércia inflacionária e do repasse cambial.

La découverte de nombreuses planètes extrasolaires depuis 1995 est une source d’inspiration pour les modèles de formation et évolution des systèmes solaires. Une fraction de ces planètes ont un demi-grand axe inférieur à 0.1 UA; une planète qui migre à proximité de son étoile subit donc d’abord un fort vent solaire et, après son entrée dans la magnétosphère stellaire, un fort champ magnétique. Nous étudions séparemment l’interaction entre ces planètes et la composante périodique et indépendente du temps du champ magnétique dipolaire stellaire. L’interaction périodique est associée à des courants induits confinés dans la planète. Nous étudions deux effets qui pourraient augmenter le moment angulaire d’une planète gaseuse géante qui migre vers son étoile: un torque de Lorentz qui transferre du moment angulaire de la rotation de l’étoile vers l’orbite de la planète et une perte de masse induite par la dissipation ohmique dans la planète qui peut donner du moment angulaire à la planète lorsque cette masse est accrétée sur l’étoile. Nous modellisons l’interaction indépendente du temps comme un modèle d’inducteur unipolaire, dans lequel le courant induit circule dans une boucle fermée formée par la planète, le flux de tube, et le pied du flux de tube dans l’atmosphère stellaire. Nous calculons de fa con cohérente la dissipation ohmique dans la planète et le pied du flux de tube ainsi que le couple de Lorentz. Nous utilisons alors ce modèle pour expliquer l’aspect enflé de certaines planètes géantes. Finalement, nous suggérons que ce modèle permettrait également d’estimer la conductivité électrique des super-Terres qui interagissent magnétiquement avec leur étoile. / The numerous and diverse extrasolar planets detected since 1995 provide much inspiration for planetary astrophysics. A fraction of these extrasolar planets orbit their host stars at semi-major axes less than 0.1 AU; a planet which has migrated toward its host star would thus first encounter a strong magnetized wind and, as it enters the stellar magnetosphere, strong magnetic fields. We model the interaction of such a close-in extrasolar planet with the dipolar magnetic field of its host star and study separately the time-dependent and independent components. The time-dependent interaction gives rise to Eddy currents confined in the planet. We investigate two effects that may transfer angular momentum to a planet approaching its host TTauri star through type II migration: a Lorentz torque that transfers angular momentum from the stellar spin to the planetary orbit and a mass loss induced by the ohmic dissipation in the planet, which may transfer angular momentum to the planet as the gas is accreted onto the star. We model the time-independent interaction with the unipolar inductor model, which allows the current induced in the planet to flow along a closed loop constituted by the planet, the flux tube, and its footprint on the stellar atmosphere. We self-consistently calculate the ohmic dissipation in the planet and the star and the associated Lorentz torque. We then suggest that the ohmic dissipation may provide the extra energy needed to explain some planets with inflated radii. Finally, we propose that the model may also be used to remotely infer the electric conductivity of the outer layers of super-Earths interacting magnetically with their host stars.