Dans cette thèse, nous étudions empiriquement les liens de causalité, au sens de Granger, entre le développement financier et la croissance économique dans le cadre de l'UEMOA et de la CEDEAO. La plupart des études dans ce domaine sont réalisées dans les domaine temporel. Ici, nous associons les domaines temporel et fréquentiel par l'utilisation de modèles multivectoriels autorégressifs. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons la méthode de décomposition de Geweke (1982, 1984) améliorée par Chen et al. (2008) afin d'obtenir, en plus des relations causales temporelles et fréquentielles, les causalités instantanées et la dépendance. Cette thèse apporte aussi une contribution théorique en proposant une méthode de calcul des p-values plus adaptée aux échantillons de petite taille. Les applications portent d'abord sur les relations causales entre finance et croissance dans les domaines temporel et spectral. Ensuite, nous examinons l'influence de l'inflation sur ces relations. Enfin, nous étudions les relations causales entre croissance et Investissements Directs Etrangers (IDE) conditionnellement au développement financier et à l'ouverture économique. / The framework of Geweke (1982, 1984) improved by Chen et al. (2008)is used in this thesis to conduct Granger causality between finance and growth in the context of West Africa. We adopt the time - and frequency- approaches to bring out instantaneous causality and dependence by employing vector autoregressive models. In this work, we propose p-values computations more suitable for small sample size. Empirical investigations examine, successively, causal links between finance and growth, the impact of inflation on these links, and the conditional relationships between growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to financial development and economic openness.

Tout au long de l'histoire du Pakistan depuis son indépendance, la domination budgétaire est restée une norme, à la fois dans les régimes démocratiques et militaires. Cette augmentation de la persistance du déficit budgétaire a dilué la performance du secteur réel et affecté négativement la balance des paiements, ce qui provoque l'inflation dans l'économie. L'expérience du Pakistan montre que d'importants déficits budgétaires ont conduit le gouvernement à des emprunts excessifs de la banque d'État du Pakistan (SBP) et par conséquent à une vaste impression de l'argent. Dans une telle situation, la banque centrale se retrouve avec peu d'espace pour exterminer les chiffres croissants d'inflation et d'assurer une croissance saine. Sur la base de toutes ces preuves et l'échec de la politique monétaire pour maintenir les prix dans des limites acceptables, l'économie du Pakistan est supposée victime de la domination budgétaire - également connu sous le régime de non-ricardienne. Cependant, il n'y a guère de preuves où une étude approfondie est menée pour prouver la domination budgétaire au Pakistan, puis définir une politique pour y remédier. Dans ce contexte, notre thèse porte sur la domination budgétaire et le niveau d'inflation élevé en conséquence, qui est resté élevé pendant presque une décennie. Nous allons mener quatre études, allant de l'identification de la domination budgétaire dans l'économie du Pakistan pour évaluer l'impact de la politique budgétaire sur la croissance et l'inflation. La première étude est liée à la littérature sur les théories de dominance fiscale, où la politique budgétaire agit activement et la politique monétaire suit passivement. Le deuxième modèle, la théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix (FTPL), affirme que la dette publique et la politique budgétaire déterminent principalement le niveau des prix dans une économie. Le troisième modèle examine la fiscalisation optimale et le revenu du seigneuriage. Le concept est basé sur Sidrauski (1967) modèle. La notion du modèle est que le niveau général des prix plus élevés déforme la demande de monnaie et augmente ainsi le bien-être. Lorsque les revenus du gouvernement sont en deçà de ses dépenses, le gouvernement finance son déficit budgétaire grâce à la génération des revenus de seigneuriages. Dans notre quatrième étude, nous mesurons la réponse de l'inflation et de la croissance à l'évolution de la politique budgétaire tout en tenant compte des comportements des détenteurs de dépôts et l'industrie bancaire. / The central bank uses policy rates for reducing inflation. However, policy rates become less affective in comparison to bond’s rates when convertibility between bonds of different maturities decreases. This makes monetary policy ineffective if the government borrows heavily from the domestic market and an active fiscal policy, aiming to increase the economic activity, stimulates inflationary pressure. Throughout the history of Pakistan since its independence, fiscal dominance remained a norm, both in the democratic and military regimes. During the last three decades, the economy of Pakistan is faced with serious fiscal deficit tribulations. Increasing public debt stock and dilapidated tax-to-GDP ratio are grave hurdles in reducing the widening fiscal deficit. This persistence increase in the fiscal deficit has diluted the real sector performance and negatively affected the balance of payments position, causing inflation in the economy. Further, it makes government dependent on huge borrowing from internal and external sources and pushed it to increased debt servicing intricacy. Despite recurring efforts on part of government, no evident success is witnessed to reduce the ever increasing fiscal deficit. Large fiscal deficits have led the government of Pakistan to excessive borrowing from central bank of the country (SBP) and consequently to extensive printing of money.Though, SBP imposed an upper ceiling on government borrowing to reduce its public borrowing from central bank. However, the government never respected these ceilings and compromised the independence of central bank. This dependence on local money market for financing budget deficit increased money base, caused crowding out of private sector, resulted in high printing of money and reduced the monetary policy space to exterminate high inflation. Such a situation restricts the monetary policy to offset the distortions existing in the economy and to achieve its desired goals. Such scenario advocates a dire need of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to strike an appropriate balance between growth and inflation. In this context, our thesis focuses on fiscal dominance and the consequent high inflation level, which remained lofty for almost a decade. We conduct four studies, ranging from the identification of fiscal dominance in the economy of Pakistan to gauging the impact of fiscal policy on growth and inflation.The first study is related to literature on fiscal dominance theories, where fiscal policy acts actively and monetary policy follows passively. To establish that the decades long high inflation in Pakistan is solely because of fiscal dominance, a second study is conducted to analyze the interest rate pass through mechanism in Pakistan. In the third step, it uses corporate governance proxies, capital structure proxies and ownership structure proxies to investigate their links with bank’s performance. In our fourth study, we gauge the response of inflation and growth to changes in fiscal policy while taking into account deposit holders behavior and banking industry.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-03T18:35:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Anderson_da_Silva_Pinto.pdf: 593086 bytes, checksum: 0af63bcd9c696fd4ff30b43131d0442b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-11-27 / The systematic restatement that was prohibited by Law 9.249/95, allowed companies to recognize the effects of inflation in the accounting statements, thus enabling users to understand the effects of accounting that inflation generated in the asset and results of the companies. This paper aims to highlight the effects that the lack of indexation causes in equity in earnings and profitability of companies in the mining sector in the period 2006 to 2011, comparing the indicators of net income, shareholders' equity and return on equity extracted from the accounting statements determined in accordance with Brazilian Corporate Law and the accounting statements adjusted considering the effects of inflation over the period. The prohibition of the practice of restatement caused the accounting statements disclosed by companies in the mining sector do not recognize the effects of inflation, distorting the content of the information disclosed and as a consequence affecting the decision-making process of users of accounting. This is a descriptive quantitative, in which we used the methods of descriptive analysis and descriptive statistics to understand the behavior of indicators that were studied and to analyze the accounting statements of companies within the mining sector. Were collected and analyzed indicators of net income, shareholders' equity and return on equity, extracted from the accounting information disclosed in the Revista Exame Melhores e Maiores in the period from 2006 to 2011. Where significant differences were found in the values presented in accordance with Brazilian Corporate Law as compared with the figures considering the effects of inflation. The main results were that the lack of inflation adjustment in the accounting statements cause considerable distortions in the calculation of income for the period, the net asset value and profitability indicator in equity of companies in the mining sector. The distortions affect users of accounting in the process of choosing their investments and analysis of accounting information, as these users are making decisions through accounting statements do not adequately reflect the economic reality of companies in the mining sector. Conclude that the accounting practice of indexation for both corporate as managerial levels are relevant to avoid the distortions that are caused evidenced in equity, results and return on equity of companies in the mining sector, the non-recognition of inflation. / A sistem??tica da corre????o monet??ria que foi proibida pela Lei n. 9.249/95 permitia que as empresas reconhecessem os efeitos da infla????o nas demonstra????es cont??beis, possibilitando assim, aos usu??rios da contabilidade, conhecer os efeitos que a infla????o gerava no patrim??nio e nos resultados das empresas. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo evidenciar as consequ??ncias que a falta da corre????o monet??ria ocasiona no patrim??nio l??quido, no resultado do exerc??cio e na rentabilidade do patrim??nio l??quido das empresas do setor de minera????o brasileiro, no per??odo de 2006 a 2011, comparando os indicadores de lucro l??quido, do patrim??nio l??quido e da rentabilidade do patrim??nio l??quido extra??dos das demonstra????es cont??beis apuradas de acordo com a legisla????o societ??ria e as demonstra????es cont??beis ajustadas considerando os efeitos da infla????o no per??odo. A proibi????o da pr??tica da corre????o monet??ria fez com que as demonstra????es cont??beis divulgadas pelas empresas do setor de minera????o brasileiro n??o reconhe??am os efeitos da infla????o, distorcendo o conte??do das informa????es divulgadas e, como consequ??ncia, afetando o processo decis??rio dos usu??rios da contabilidade. Trata-se de uma pesquisa descritiva quantitativa, na qual foram utilizados os m??todos de an??lise descritiva e a estat??stica descritiva para se entender o comportamento dos indicadores que foram coletados das demonstra????es cont??beis das empresas pertencentes ao setor minera????o brasileiro. Este trabalho analisa os indicadores de lucro l??quido, do patrim??nio l??quido e da rentabilidade do patrim??nio l??quido, extra??dos das informa????es cont??beis divulgadas na revista Exame Maiores e Melhores, no per??odo de 2006 a 2011. Nos indicadores coletados, h?? diferen??as relevantes nos valores apresentados de acordo com a legisla????o societ??ria em compara????o com os valores apresentados considerando os efeitos da infla????o do per??odo. Os principais resultados alcan??ados foram que a falta da corre????o monet??ria nas demonstra????es cont??beis provocam distor????es consider??veis na apura????o do resultado do per??odo, no valor do patrim??nio l??quido e no indicador de rentabilidade do patrim??nio l??quido das empresas do setor de minera????o brasileiro. As distor????es afetam os usu??rios da contabilidade no processo de escolha dos seus investimentos e nas an??lises das informa????es cont??beis, pois estes usu??rios est??o tomando decis??es com base em demonstra????es cont??beis que n??o refletem adequadamente a realidade econ??mica das empresas do setor de minera????o brasileiro. Conclui-se que a pr??tica cont??bil da corre????o monet??ria, tanto para n??veis societ??rios quanto gerenciais, ?? relevante para evitar as distor????es evidenciadas que s??o causadas no patrim??nio l??quido, nos resultados e na rentabilidade do patrim??nio l??quido das empresas do setor de minera????o brasileiro, pelo n??o reconhecimento da infla????o.

Lam Man Kin, Wong Yim Pan. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references. / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.ii / ABSTRACT --- p.iii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE MODELS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE DETERMINATION --- p.6 / Purchasing Power Parity --- p.6 / Flexible Price Monetary Model --- p.9 / Sticky Price Monetary Model -Exchange Rate Dynamics --- p.11 / Portfolio Balance Approach --- p.14 / Insights --- p.16 / Chapter III. --- THE LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM --- p.18 / A Brief Historical Account --- p.18 / The Linked Exchange Rate System and Interest Rate --- p.19 / The Linked Exchange Rate System and Inflation Rate --- p.21 / The Pattern of Interest Rate Since Oct. 1983 --- p.22 / "The Pattern of Inflation Rate Since Oct., 1983" --- p.23 / "The Change of Real Exchange Rate Since Oct.,1983" --- p.23 / Chapter VI. --- METHODOLOGIES FOR THE EMPIRICAL STUDIES --- p.31 / The Data --- p.31 / Statistical Techniques --- p.32 / Models to be studied --- p.32 / Absolute PPP --- p.32 / Relative PPP --- p.33 / Augmented PPP Model --- p.34 / Hong Kong Inflation and US Inflation --- p.35 / Hong Kong Interest Rate and US Interest Rate --- p.36 / Interest Rate and Inflation Rate of Hong Kong --- p.36 / Chapter V. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS --- p.38 / PPP Model --- p.38 / Absolute PPP --- p.38 / Relationship between Exchange Rate and Price Levels --- p.43 / Relative PPP --- p.43 / Inflations of Hong Kong and the US --- p.45 / Percentage change of exchange rate and inflation --- p.46 / Augmented PPP Model: Incorporate Interest Rates in PPP Model --- p.47 / Absolute PPP --- p.47 / Interest Rates and Short Term Fluctuation of Exchange Rate --- p.48 / Relative PPP --- p.49 / Interest Rates and the Percentage Change of Exchange Rate --- p.51 / Hong Kong Inflation and US Inflation --- p.51 / The Divergence of Two Inflation Rates --- p.52 / Hong Kong Interest Rate and US Interest Rate --- p.53 / Hong Kong Inflation and Hong Kong Interest Rates --- p.55 / Chapter VI. --- CONCLUSION --- p.57 / Limitations --- p.59 / APPENDIX / I --- p.61 / II --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.78

Une forte croissance économique en Chine et son rôle important dans le commerce mondial impliquent que nous devons analyser son inflation avec les pressions intérieures et extérieures. Tandis que les papiers récents ont concentrés leur travail sur les processus d'inflation en Chine en utilisant des données nationales (voir, par exemple Brandt et Zhu, 2000; Feyzioglu & Willard, 2006; Porter, 2010), très peu d'attention a été mise sur l'inflation entre les différentes juridictions Chinoises. Ainsi, la compréhension de la dynamique de l'inflation et ses interactions entre les juridictions Chinoise sont des questions importantes pour les décisions des banques centrales en matière de politique monétaire. Dans ma thèse, tout d'abord, en considérant les pressions intérieures et extérieures de l'inflation, j'analyse les dynamiques de l'inflation entre les juridictions Chinoises (Chapitre 3). Ensuite, grâce à la libre circulation des biens et les migrations intérieures en Chine, je m'intéresse aux effets d'interactions de l'inflation à travers le pays avec les pressions intérieures et extérieures (Chapitre 4). Enfin, nous conjuguons la variation provinciale dans la dynamique de l'inflation Chinoise et les caractéristiques d'économie ouverte en estimant la courbe de Phillips hybride dans l'économie ouverte pour les provinces chinoises (Chapitre 5). / China's swift economic development and share in global trade increasing rapidly imply a need to understand its inflation dynamics with internal and external pressures. While recent papers focus on inflation process analysis in the mainland of China by using a country-level data (see, e.g. Brandt & Zhu, 2000; Feyzioğlu & Willard, 2006; Porter, 2010), less attention has been paid to differences across China's jurisdictions. Thus, understanding of inflation dynamics and its interaction among the Chinese provinces are the important issues for central bank's monetary policy decisions. Firstly, considering the internal and external inflation pressures, I analyze the inflation dynamics among the CMU (Chapter 3). Secondly, because of the free flow of goods and internal migration across the country, I'm interested in analyzing the effect of inflation interaction among its provinces with internal and external pressures (Chapter 4). Finally, we combine the interest in the provincial variation in China's inflation dynamics with its characteristic of economic openness by estimating hybrid open-economy Phillips curves for the Chinese provinces(Chapter 5).

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo estimar o grau de impacto da política monetária sobre alguns agregados monetários, tendo foco principalmente na evolução das taxas de inflação e no produto agregado. Para tanto, é discutida a estrutura teórica do Novo Consenso Macroeconômico, que fundamenta o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI), e apresentadas as características deste regime. Com o objetivo de elucidar o RMI no Brasil, é exposto o ambiente macroeconômico em que ele foi implantado e as suas características. Sobre o debate da conveniência da adoção do RMI, adotamos uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana, apresentando as críticas desta escola do pensamento econômico a este regime monetário. Para o caso brasileiro, estas críticas vão em direção à concepção de inflação que fundamenta esse regime monetário, à forma institucional adotada e à política monetária. Com o objetivo de esclarecer melhor as origens e fundamentos do RMI e suas críticas, apresentam-se as principais teorias de inflação existentes dentro do debate econômico e os principais regimes monetários. Com respeito aos aspectos quantitativos relacionados ao objetivo principal, apresenta-se um breve histórico da inflação brasileira pós-1999, faz-se uma análise do comportamento dos principais índices de inflação, apresentam-se os índices de referência para a meta inflacionária utilizados pelos países que adotaram o RMI e, por fim, expõe-se o efeito passthrough. Em relação ao crescimento econômico brasileiro pós-adoção do RMI, apresentam-se dados comparativos da evolução do PIB e da inflação brasileira com a de outros países, que adotaram ou não este regime monetário. Também é descrito o mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária na economia brasileira. Por fim, mostra-se a evidência do canal da taxa de juros da política monetária para a economia brasileira, por meio de um modelo de correção de erros, Vector Error Correction (VEC). / This dissertation aims to estimate the impact of monetary policy on some monetary aggregates, and focus mainly on the development of inflation and aggregate output. To this end, we discuss the theoretical framework of the New Macroeconomic Consensus, who moved the inflation targeting regime (RMI), and presented the characteristics of this regime. In order to elucidate the minimum wage in Brazil is exposed to the macroeconomic environment in which it was implemented and its characteristics. Debate on the desirability of the adoption of the RMI has adopted a post-Keynesian perspective, presenting the criticism of this school of economic thought in this monetary regime. For the Brazilian case, these criticisms go toward the design of inflation that underlies the monetary regime, the institutional form adopted and monetary policy. In order to clarify the origins and rationale of the RMI and its critics, presents the main existing theories of inflation in the economic debate and the main monetary regimes. With respect to quantitative aspects related to the main objective, we present a brief history of the Brazilian inflation after 1999, it is an analysis of the behavior of core inflation indices, we present the benchmarks for the inflation target used by countries that adopted the RMI, and finally, it exposes the passthrough effect. For the Brazilian economic growth after adoption of the RMI presents comparative data on GDP development and inflation in Brazil with other countries that have adopted or not this monetary regime. Also described the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Brazilian economy. Finally, it shows evidence of channel interest rate monetary policy for the Brazilian economy by means of a model error correction, Vector Error Correction (VEC).

Inflationen har i många länder varit låg sedan finanskrisen 2008. I försök öka inflationstakten har centralbanker sänkt sina räntor till rekordlåga nivåer. I Danmark, Schweiz och Sverige har styrräntorna varit negativa. John B Taylor föreslog 1993 en makroekonomisk regel med syfte att kunna ge en prognos för styrräntan. Enligt Taylorregeln kan styrräntan förklaras av tidigare perioders inflationstakt och bruttonationalprodukt. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka Taylorregelns empiriska relevans i Danmark, Schweiz och Sverige under perioden 2000 till 2018. Två tester genomförs. Det första är att, med en linjär regressionsmodell, undersöka sambandet mellan styrränta, inflationsgap och BNP-gap. Det andra är ett Granger-kausalitetstest för att se om den implicerade kausaliteten i Taylorregeln stämmer. Granger-testet bygger på resultaten från en vektor autoregression. Resultaten i denna uppsats visar att det finns ett samband mellan inflationstakt och styrränta, men inte mellan BNP-gap och styrränta i de valda länderna under undersökningsperioden. Vidare visar resultaten att kausaliteten går från inflationsgap och BNP-gap mot styrränta, som Taylorregeln föreslår. Resultatet lyckas inte påvisa att negativa styrräntor skulle påverka Taylorregelns relevans. / The rate of inflation has been low in many countries since the financial crisis in 2008. In attempts to increase the inflation rate, central banks have lowered their interest rates to historically low levels. In Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden, the central banks key interest rates have been negative. In 1993, John B Taylor proposed a macroeconomic rule with the aim of providing a forecast for the key interest rate. According to the Taylor rule, the policy rate can be explained by the inflation rate and gross domestic product of previous periods. This paper aims to investigate the empirical relevance of the Taylor rule in Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden during the period 2000 to 2018. To do this, two tests are performed. The first is that, with a linear regression model, investigate the relationship between the key interest rate, the inflation gap and the GDP gap. The second is a Granger causality test to see if the implicit causality of the Taylor rule is correct. The Granger test is based on the results of a vector autoregression. The results of this paper show that there is a correlation between the rate of inflation and the key interest rate, but not between the GDP gap and the key interest rate in the selected countries during the investigation period. Furthermore, the results show that causality goes from the inflation gap and the GDP gap towards the key interest rate, as the Taylor rule suggests. The result does not suggest that negative key interest rates would affect the relevance of the Taylor rule.

Les crises financières successives qu’a connues récemment le monde et qui ont failli mettre en péril l’économie mondiale et ébranler le système économique et financier international ont obligé les autorités politiques et les institutions à renforcer les législations en la matière et à multiplier les normes. Ce renforcement et cette multiplication des normes ont pour but de limiter l’apparition de crises et de risques pour le système financier. La présente thèse vise à décrire l’impact de la multiplicité des normes dans le secteur bancaire qui se traduit par des contraintes, contradictions et coût important pour la banque. Il s’agit dans ce travail de présenter les dispositifs mis en place par l’établissement bancaire pour répondre aux exigences réglementaires ainsi qu’analyser les conséquences, cohérences et enjeux des normes sur la maitrise des risques et sur l’organisation interne de l’établissement. Les résultats soulignent l’intérêt de la gestion complète et intégrée des normes dans ce secteur d’activité. En effet, les résultats de la recherche montrent que la performance d’une banque de détail dépendra directement de sa capacité à anticiper et à gérer les divers corpus de normes auxquelles elle est confrontée. La gestion de la « norme » devient actuellement un sujet majeur dans le secteur bancaire au même titre que la gestion des risques. Les deux étant intrinsèquement liés.Le fondement de ce travail repose sur une étude de cas longitudinale de quatre années construite à partir d’une recherche-action auprès d’une banque de détail. Cette approche se base sur des entretiens semi-directifs, analyse de contenu des documents internes, réunions… Nous avons mobilisé la théorie du contrôle et du risque ainsi que la théorie de la tétranormalisation afin d’analyser la gestion de la norme dans l’établissement bancaire. / The recent global financial crises that have almost jeopardized the world economy and shaken the global economic and financial systems have forced political authorities and institutions to strengthen their current laws and regulations to help safeguard against any future crises. In this context, risk control, transparency and visibility of information have become the foundations which standards seek to put in order to keep future crises at a distance. This thesis aims to describe the impact of the multiplicity of norms in the banking sector which can result in constraints, contradictions and significant costs for the bank. The purpose of this work is to present the mechanisms put in place by the banking establishment to meet the current regulatory requirements as well as analyze the consequences, coherences and stakes of the standards on risk management and on the internal organization of the establishment. The results underline the interest of the integral management of norms in the financial sector. The research results show that the performance of a retail bank will depend directly on its ability to anticipate and manage the various sets of standards it faces. The management of the "standard" is now becoming a major topic in the banking sector as well as risk management. Both are intrinsically linked.The foundation of this work is based on a four-year longitudinal case study built from action research at a retail bank. This approach is based on semi-structured interviews, content analysis of internal documents, meetings ... The study has mobilized control and risk theory as well as “tetranormalization” theory in order to analyze the management of norms in banking institutions.

Wu, Zhouheng. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 44-46). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.3 / Chapter 3. --- Overview of Key Factors that affect inflation in China --- p.6 / Chapter 3.1 --- Output Growth --- p.6 / Chapter 3.2 --- Money Supply --- p.7 / Chapter 3.3 --- Exchange Rate --- p.7 / Chapter 3.4 --- Wage --- p.8 / Chapter 3.5 --- Other Exogenous Shocks --- p.10 / Chapter 4. --- The Model --- p.11 / Chapter 4.1 --- Households --- p.12 / Chapter 4.2 --- Production Firms --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Non-Traded Sector --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Traded Sector --- p.19 / Chapter 4.3 --- Import Prices --- p.20 / Chapter 4.4 --- Monetary Policy Rules --- p.21 / Chapter 4.5 --- Domestic and External Shocks --- p.23 / Chapter 4.6 --- Market Clearing Conditions --- p.24 / Chapter 5. --- Calibration --- p.26 / Chapter 5.1 --- Calibration of parameter values --- p.26 / Chapter 5.2 --- Theoretical Impulse Responses and Variance Decomposition --- p.28 / Chapter 6. --- Model Fitness --- p.33 / Chapter 7. --- Conclusion Remarks --- p.35 / References --- p.38 / Appendix / Appendix A Equilibrium Conditions --- p.41 / Appendix B Steady State --- p.43 / Appendix C Simulation --- p.45 / Appendix D Data Description and Empirical Results --- p.56

<p>The economic policy of the Swedish Social Democrats has undergone major changes during the last thirty years. From using a so-called Keynesian policy to promote full employment in the economy, the Social Democrats have switched to a more monetaristic policy to promote low inflation instead. What I intend to do with this study is to see if the policy change also can be noticed in how the party describe their own policy. Have the Social Democrats been open and transparent with their change in priorities, or have they tried to hide this in their rhetoric?</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine if one can notice a change from a Keynesian to a monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy. The main research question, which I intend to answer, is: "Is it possible to notice a change from a Keynesian to monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy?"</p><p>I have chosen to study the descriptions found in the financial forecasts, presented by the Social Democrats during their time in government rule between 1970 and 1999. The research method I use is the qualitative text analysis.</p><p>After analyzing the descriptions found in the financial forecasts I present an answer to the main research question: Yes, it is partly possible to notice a change from a Keynesian to monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy.</p><p>I only say partly possible because it is possible to notice the policy change that took place between the 1970s and 1980s, when low inflation was given the same priority as low unemployment. Whereas it is not possible to notice the change that took place between the 1980s and 1990s, when low inflation was given the highest priority, above low unemployment.</p>