La presente investigación tiene como objetivo examinar el efecto de la política macroprudencial en el riesgo de insolvencia de las entidades bancarias en el Perú. Las herramientas que se estudian son las provisiones dinámicas, los requerimientos de capital, los requerimientos de encaje en moneda nacional y en moneda extranjera. El periodo de estudio comprende desde el año 2011 hasta el 2019 y el análisis se realiza a través de un panel dinámico. Los resultados indican que la política macroprudencial ha sido efectiva para disminuir el riesgo de insolvencia de las entidades bancarias pero de manera parcial, ya que solo los requerimientos de capital y los requerimientos de encaje en moneda extranjera tienen significancia estadística. La no significancia de los requerimientos de encaje en moneda nacional se pueden deber a que estos se han mantenido en valores estables y que pueden ser efectivos para otros objetivos intermedios. Con respecto a las provisiones dinámicas, estas solo han estado activas durante un periodo corto de tiempo, lo cual se podría deber a que el criterio está asociado al ciclo económico y no al ciclo financiero. Asimismo, se encuentra que algunas características originan que los bancos se encuentren menos expuestos al riesgo de insolvencia, tales como el grado de capitalización, la estructura de financiamiento, el tamaño y su nivel de actividad. / The aim of this investigation is to examine the effect of macroprudential policy on the banks’ risk of insolvency in Peru. The tools included are dynamic provisions, capital requirements, and the requirements for assembling in national currency and foreign currency. The study period runs from 2011 to 2019 and the analysis is done through a dynamic panel. The results indicate that the macroprudential policy has been effective in reducing the risk of insolvency of banks, but only partially, because only capital requirements and the requirements on reserve for foreign currency have statistical significance. The non-significance of the reserve requirements in national currency may be due to the fact that they have been maintained at stable values and that they may be effective for other intermediate objectives. With regard to the dynamic provisions, they have only been active for a short period of time, which could be due to the fact that the criterion is associated with the economic cycle and not with the financial cycle. Likewise, it is found that some characteristics cause banks to be less exposed to insolvency risk, such as such as the degree of capitalization, the financing structure, the size and their level of activity. / Trabajo de investigación

L'objectif de cette thèse, composée de quatre articles empiriques et théoriques, est d'étudier l'implication des banques centrales dans la stabilité financière - définie comme un état stable et élevé de confiance dans la capacité du système financier à faciliter l'allocation des ressources économiques, gérer les risques, et à résister aux chocs - et de discuter de leurs nouvelles responsabilités macroprudentielles. La crise financière mondiale a fait évoluer la régulation et la supervision financières d'une perspective microprudentielle basée sur la résilience des institutions prises individuellement à une perspective macroprudentielle qui prend en compte les interactions entre les institutions financières, les externalités liées à leurs décisions, et aussi les effets du cycle financier sur le cycle économique et sur la stabilité financière. Cette thèse analyse le policy-mix des politiques monétaire - ciblant le cycle économique –et macroprudentielle -ciblant le cycle financier -ayant toutes les deux un impact sur la stabilité des prix et les conditions financières. En effet, ces politiques fonctionnent grâce à des canaux de transmission dont certains sont communs. Une attention particulière est accordée, au-delà la politique macroprudentielle dans union monétaire hétérogène comme la zone euro - où les pays connaissent des conditions macroéconomiques différenciées - en termes de stabilisation financière et macroéconomique. Partant du constat qu'un taux d'intérêt unique est adapté à la moyenne de la zone mais pas aux besoins de chacun des pays, la politique macroprudentielle pourrait compenser l'absence de politique monétaire autonome dans chaque pays. Cela améliorerait le degré d'optimalité de la zone monétaire. / The aim of this thesis, composed of four academic papers, is to apply empirical and theoreticalanalyses to study the involvement of central banks in financial stability-confidence in the financial system's ability to facilitate allocation of economic resources, manage risks, and withstand shocks -and to discuss their recent macroprudential responsibilities. The global financial crisis (GFC) shitied the perspective of financial regulation - rules that financial institutions have to comply with in order to ensure effective risk management and to with stand financial shocks - and supervision - ensuring that financial institutions follow these rules - from a microprudential perspective based on the resilience of individual institutions to amacroprudential (henceforth · "MaP") perspective. The MaP perspective takes into account the interactions of financial institutions, the externalities related to their decisions, and also the effects of the financial cycle on central bank policy and financial stability. This thesis analyses the policy mix of monctary and macroprudential policies which both have an impact on price stability and financial conditions and which operate through common or overlapping channels. A particular focus is given to the role of MaP policy in heterogeneous monetary union such as the Eurozone- where countries are experience in different macroeconomic conditions - in terms of financial and macroeconomic stabilisation. Since a single interest rate is unlikely to fit circumstances in all countries, MaP policy could compensate the Jack of autonomous monetary policy in each country as both policies share many transmission channels. This enhances the optimality's degree of the currency area.

What is the optimal interaction between macroprudential and fiscal policy to foster financial stability? This thesis evaluates whether policy interaction can impact private debt growth. First, a model is built with borrowing constraints that illustrate the links between private and public debt dynamics. The derived hypothesis and theoretical predictions indicate that a tighter macroprudential stance is reinforced by prudential fiscal policies, conditional on the initial level of public debt and scope for countercyclical fiscal policies. Second, the hypothesis is tested by using a dynamic panel data model for a sample of 49 advanced and emerging economies over the period 2000-2013. Whilst the interaction term alone yields insignificant results, interesting inferences can be drawn of the findings within the context of existing literature. The suggestion is that there may exist two opposing effects associated with the interaction between macroprudential and fiscal policy on private debt. Moreover the outcome of this interaction is contingent upon the levels of public debt and private indebtedness.

Submitted by Marilia Taveira (marilia.taveira@gmail.com) on 2012-11-06T15:02:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Marilia_Final_PosDefesa.pdf: 823265 bytes, checksum: 5a33364964aaba850db6b89019c42d01 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2012-11-06T15:06:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Marilia_Final_PosDefesa.pdf: 823265 bytes, checksum: 5a33364964aaba850db6b89019c42d01 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-04T13:08:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Marilia_Final_PosDefesa.pdf: 823265 bytes, checksum: 5a33364964aaba850db6b89019c42d01 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-31 / Este estudo tem dois objetivos principais. O primeiro, discutir o propósito da popularização das políticas macroprudenciais no pós-crise – que surgiram como uma das soluções para a complexa relação entre estabilidade de preços e estabilidade financeira – suas vantagens em relação à abordagem anteriormente predominante – as políticas microprudenciais – e formas de interação com a tradicional política monetária. O segundo grande objetivo reproduzir um modelo da geração novo-keynesiana que contempla um sistema bancário e características que permitem replicar a condução de uma política macroprudencial (colaterais, depósitos compulsórios, requerimentos mínimos de capital) a fim de analisar a resposta de variáveis macroeconômicas a mudanças nestes parâmetros. / This study has two main goals. The first one is to discuss the popularization of macroprudential policies in the after crisis, as a solution for the complex linkage between financial stability and price stability, its benefits compared to the previous approach – the microprudential regulation – and the interaction between macroprudential and conventional monetary policies. The second main goal is to simulate a DSGE model with a banking system and subject to reserve requirements and collateral requirements that allow one to assess the effects of macroprudential tools utilization over macroeconomic variables.

Diploma thesis is focused on the issue of financial cycle. It has theoretical character and it is based on foreign sources. Diploma thesis describes the definition of financial cycle, its interactions with business cycle and moreover it explores sychronization of cycles. Furthermore financial cycle indicators and measures are analyzed. The reactions of macroprudential, fiscal and monetary policy are also discussed in the thesis. In particular, the attention is drawn to theoretical view on countercyclical buffer. The last part is devoted to the setting of countercyclical buffer in chosen european countries.

This thesis deals with stress testing of the banking sector. Stress tests are a set of analytical tools used to test the resilience and financial stability of the banking sector. At the beginning of the work financial stability and systemic risk impact not only in the form of sys-temically important financial institutions are discussed. Followed by a chapter on stress tests, which describes historic development of stress testing approaches to testing of individual banking risks and their implementation in the form of stress testing. Stress testing methodo-logy is described primarily from the perspective of the Czech National Bank, the importance of banking regulation and supervision in Basel III is also presented. In the final chapter of the thesis there are commented results of Czech National Bank's stress tests, and EU wide stress tests 2014, launched in cooperation with European Banking Authority, European Central Bank and the European Systemic Risk Board.

The final thesis follows the effort of the European Union to transfer responsibility for issues in the banking sector from taxpayers to its shareholders and creditors. It adopts many new tools and measures. The first part of the thesis is devoted to the banking union project, which unifies the supervision and procedures for solving the crisis at the European level. Emphasis is placed on the newly adopted Single resolution mechanism. Since the adopted legislation does not apply exclusively to the Eurozone countries the second part of the thesis analyses the implementation of the BRRD into Czech law, and the related amendments concerning the Czech banking sector. The aim of the thesis is to analyse the crisis resolving procedure, which is specified in the third chapter on the example of a fictitious bank. The example monitors tools and measures that can be used in various life stages of a bank. It is mainly based on the rules laid down in BRRD and the Czech legislation ZOPRK.

This thesis consists of three papers that makes independent contributions to the fields of forecast evaluation and financial econometrics. As such, the papers, chapter 1-3, can be read independently of each other. In Chapter 1, “Inferring an agent’s loss function based on a term structure of forecasts”, we provide conditions for identification, estimation and inference of an agent’s loss function based on an observed term structure of point forecasts. The loss function specification is flexible as we allow the preferences to be both asymmetric and to vary non-linearly across the forecast horizon. In addition, we introduce a novel forecast rationality test based on the estimated loss function. We employ the approach to analyse the U.S. Government’s preferences over budget surplus forecast errors. Interestingly, we find that it is relatively more costly for the government to underestimate the budget surplus and that this asymmetry is stronger at long forecast horizons. In Chapter 2, “Monitoring Systemic Risk”, we define systemic risk as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis. This conditional probability is modelled in a fixed effect binary response panel-model framework that allows for cross-sectional dependence (e.g. due to contagion effects). In the empirical application we identify several risk factors and it is shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, we illustrate how the forecasts of systemic risk map into dynamic policy thresholds in this framework. Finally, by conducting a pseudo out-of-sample exercise we find that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early-warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies. Finally, in Chapter 3, “Equity Premium Predictability”, we reassess the evidence of out-of- sample equity premium predictability. The empirical finance literature has identified several financial variables that appear to predict the equity premium in-sample. However, Welch & Goyal (2008) find that none of these variables have any predictive power out-of-sample. We show that the equity premium is predictable out-of-sample once you impose certain shrinkage restrictions on the model parameters. The approach is motivated by the observation that many of the proposed financial variables can be characterised as ’weak predictors’ and this suggest that a James-Stein type estimator will provide a substantial risk reduction. The out-of-sample explanatory power is small, but we show that it is, in fact, economically meaningful to an investor with time-invariant risk aversion. Using a shrinkage decomposition we also show that standard combination forecast techniques tends to ’overshrink’ the model parameters leading to suboptimal model forecasts.

1 Abstract This master thesis deals with the arrangement of the supervision of the financial system in the European Union. Its content and structure is strongly tied with two principal supervisory pillars - European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS) and Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). The first chapter starts with the historical background of the European financial supervision and proceeds to the recent global Great recession which motivated the reforms that led to the current state of the supervisory structure. The operation of the ESFS and SSM is thoroughly explained in chapters two and three respectively, moreover I cover their interaction with national supervisory authorities and special emphasis is put on the role of the Czech National Bank. Several controversial issues are also reflected in the course of the thesis, ie. rather regulatory than supervisory role of the European supervisory authorities which contradicts the initially declared intentions, their low operability or quite illusory legislative demand of extensive independence of national representatives when they stand for their respective home authorities in the European institutions. The emphasis on the Czech Republic is evident from the sub-chapter regarding the potential entry into the close cooperation with the Single Supervisory...

Este trabalho faz uso de um modelo DSGE com fricções financeiras para analisar as consequências da existência de uma modalidade subsidiada de crédito para a recuperação da economia frente a choques. Os resultados indicam que o crédito subsidiado auxilia a mitigar os efeitos de choques que incidem especificamente sobre o mercado de crédito, como é o caso de choques financeiros ou de política macroprudencial. As respostas das principais variáveis da economia a esses choques se tornam menos intensas e duradouras. Para o caso de choque de política monetária, entretanto, a presença do crédito subsidiado não altera de forma significativa as respostas de variáveis reais, como consumo e investimento. / This paper uses a DSGE model with financial frictions to analyze the consequences of the existence of a subsidized credit line for the recovery of the economy against shocks. The results indicate that the subsidized credit helps to mitigate the effects of shocks that are specifically related to the credit market, as in the case of financial shocks or macroprudential policy shocks. The responses of the main variables of the economy to these shocks become shorter and less intense. In the case of monetary policy shock, however, the presence of subsidized credit does not change significantly the responses of real variables, such as consumption and investment.