An in depth study of the pricing of Game contingent claims under a general diffusion market model, in which interest rate is non constant, is presented. With the idea of providing a few numerical examples of the valuation of such claims, we present a detailed description of a Bootstrapping procedure to obtain interest rate information from Swaps rates. We also present a Stripping procedure that can be used to obtain initial spot (caplet) volatility from Market quotes on Caps/FLoors. These methods are of general application and could be used in the calibration of diffusion models of interest rate. Then we show several examples of calibration of the Hull--White model of interest rates. Our calibration examples are later used in the numerical approximation of the value of a particular form of Game option.

本文主要評價與分析兩種結構型債券：一為目標贖回雪球型利率連動債、一為雙匯率連動債。 第一個商品利率連動債券為十年期、每季付息債券，其指標利率為三個月期LIBOR利率。本文以BGM市場模型進行評價，同時考慮40個遠期三個月期LIBOR利率的動態過程，而每個動態過程之間的相關係數為一40維度的方陣，為了加速計算速度採用Weigel(2004)運用線性代數降秩的方法，使原本相關係數矩陣由「秩40」降為「秩11」後，不僅可以加快運算速度又不會使原本相關係數矩陣失真。以蒙地卡羅模擬利率路徑評價後並進行敏感性分析。 第二個商品雙匯率連動債券連結到兩個匯率指標：歐元兌日圓及美元兌新台幣。其中連結歐元兌日圓匯率的報酬型態為雙界限出局二元選擇權，而連結美元兌新台幣匯率的報酬型態為下出界選擇權。本文利用Ritchken(1995)三元樹分別建構兩個匯率界限選擇權的評價，並發現歐元兌日圓匯率界限選擇權的價值佔債券面額的比例極小，故之後只針對美元兌新台幣匯率界限選擇權進行敏感性分析。

本文採用BGM模型評價兩個配息型態不同的利率連結商品。利用BGM模型，我們可以直接透過蒐集市場資料，即可描述LIBOR利率的期間結構。同時，對模型內遠期利率波動度與相關係數進行校準(Calibration)，使評價更為正確。 而本文評價的第一個商品為「三年期美元每日計息雙指標利率連動債」，第二個商品則是「10年期歐元逆浮動連動債」。使用BGM模型，並透過最小平方蒙地卡羅模擬，考慮提前買回條款及計算各期的配息，分別求得兩個商品的合理價格並計算避險參數。此外，從發行商與投資人的角度，分別給予避險與投資建議。 關鍵字：利率連動債、每日計息、逆浮動、BGM模型、LIBOR Market Model、Least-Squares Monte Carlo

隨著財務工程學的發展，結構型商品的架構日趨複雜，連結標的也更加多元化，可依投資人對市場未來的預期，設計出不同的商品型態，滿足投資人財富管理的需求或企業理財的規劃。但因為一般投資人不容易了解結構型商品複雜的設計，可能發生投資報酬不符預期或忽略商品潛在風險的情況。 本論文以建華銀行「美金組合式商品連動債券」與「固定期限交換利率利差連動債券」為例，進行評價與避險分析，以互換選擇權推導極小值選擇權的評價方法推導次小值選擇權的封閉解，並與蒙地卡羅模擬結果相較；利用對數常態遠期LIBOR利率模型評價連結固定期限交換利率的商品。最後進行投資與避險策略分析。希望能增進投資人對商品風險與報酬的認識，和提供金融機構未來設計相關類型商品時，對於評價與避險之理論基礎和方法的一個參考。

本論文第一章將 LIBOR 市場模型加入股價動態，並求出其風險中立過程下的動態模型，並利用此模型評價股籌交換契約。第二章將 LIBOR 市場模型擴展成兩國的市場模型，加入兩國股價動態，並求出風險中立過程下的動態模型，並利用此模型評價跨國股籌交換契約。本論文第二部份說明如何實際使用此模型，並使用蒙地卡羅模擬檢驗此評價模型的正確性。 / This thesis includes two main chapters. Chapter 2 is entiled as "Equity Swaps in a LIBOR Market Model" and Chapter 3 is entitled as "Cross-Currency Equity Swaps in a LIBOR Market in a Model". The conclusions of this thesis are made in Chapter 4. In Chapter 2, we extends the BGM (Brace, Gatarek and Musiela (1997))interest rate model (the LIBOR market model) by incorporating the stock price dynamics under the martingale measure. As compared with traditional interest rate models, the extended BGM model is easy to calibrate the model parameters and appropriate for pricing equity swaps. The general framework for pricing equity swaps is proposed and applied to the pricing of floating-for-equity swaps with either constant or variable notional principals. The calibration procedure and the practical implementation are also discussed. In Chapter 3, under the arbitrage-free framework of HJM, we simultaneously extends the BGM model (the LIBOR market model) from a single-currency economy to a cross-currency case and incorporates the stock price dynamics under the martingale measure. The resulting model is very general for pricing almost every kind of (cross-currency) equity swaps traded in OTC markets. The calibration procedure and the hedging strategies are also provided in this paper for practical operation. The pricing formulas of the equity swaps with either a constant or a variable notional principal and with hedged or un-hedged exchange rate risk are derived and discussed as examples.

Production of electric energy is continuously affected by many factors. Therefore, tools for predicting the future production are needed. In turn, the production affects the electric energy price, which is set on electric energy exchanges. This thesis is intended to find out if the software SDDP can be used for hydrothermal power production simulations in the Nord pool area. By building a simplified model of the electric energy production in Sweden with a focus on hydro, thermal and wind power, the intention is to see how the model is affected by different conditions. The investigated conditions are several; higher and lower water inflows to the hydro power reservoirs; different amounts of installed wind power production; different price levels of emission allowances for CO2. By using the simulation software SDDP, more wind power was seen to lower the electric energy prices, as well as reduce the need of transmission of power from the northern to the southern parts of Sweden. In the simulation, Sweden was divided into four areas, connected where the main bottlenecks in the power grid are located. Water inflows to the reservoirs are crucial in the model. Actual inflow data can be bought from SMHI. However, due to the limited thesis budget, estimations were constructed instead. The estimations were difficult to make and turned out to be too high. Consequently, no reliable evaluation of the SDDP software could be done using this data.

Purpose: To examine how IR-related press releases affect share price for stock companies, and to explore how said companies practice Investor Relations. Methods: The study was conducted using an event study as well as e-interviews. The event study has a quantitative deductive research approach where the market model is used for calculating the abnormal return based on press releases. The e-interviews have a qualitative research approach and follow a semi structured interview guide. The study includes all listed stock companies within the Swedish construction industry and includes press releases from the last decade. Theory: The study is based on the efficient market hypothesis and its semi strong form, theories within Investor Relations and previous research. Results: The event study shows a significant negative abnormal return during a four day period starting the day after the press release event. The negative abnormal return could derive from investor relations being used by companies as damage control, or that the investors’ expectations are too high as a result of IR. No significant differences in how companies practice IR was found in e-interviews. To the contrary, companies show similar tendencies in IR practice. It can be concluded that stock companies, through investor relations, are able to affect their share price. / Syfte: Att undersöka hur IR-relaterade pressmeddelanden påverkar aktiekursen hos börsnoterade företag samt att undersöka hur företagen arbetar med Investor Relations. Metod: Studien är utförd med hjälp av en eventstudie tillsammans med e-intervjuer. Eventstudien har en kvantitativ deduktiv ansats där marknadsmodellen används för beräkning av avvikande avkastning baserat på pressmeddelanden. E-intervjuerna har en kvalitativ ansats och följer en semistrukturerad intervjuguide. Studien innefattar alla börsnoterade företag i den svenska byggindustrin och pressmeddelanden från det senaste decenniet. Teori: Den effektiva marknadshypotesen och dess halvstarka form, teorier inom investor relations tillsammans med tidigare genomförda forskning har legat till grund för studien. Resultat: Resultatet från eventstudien visar på en signifikant negativ avvikande avkastning med start dagen efter händelsedagen till och med fyra dagar efter händelsedagen. Den negativa avvikande avkastningen kan bero på att arbetet med IR försöker dämpa befintlig negativitet hos investerare, alternativt kan det bero på att investerares förväntningar är för höga på grund av positiv IR. Utmärkande strategier för hur IR-arbetet går till i praktiken bland de observerade företagen har inte funnits i e-intervjuerna, istället liknar företagens IR-arbete varandra i stort. Slutsatsen dras att börsnoterade företag kan påverka sin aktiekurs med hjälp av investor relations.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:14:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 61070100624.pdf: 139346 bytes, checksum: b7db5e3a50a7aa43241c708ea8aacd14 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-06-23T00:00:00Z / As teorias sobre risco sistemático iniciadas em 1932 com Knight sempre buscaram determinar variáveis que pudessem explicar e determinar o nível de risco sistemático de um sistema financeiro. Neste sentido, este estudo propôs-se a investigar as variáveis que possam determinar o nível de risco sistemático de um país, utilizando um modelo de mercado para estimação de betas e regressões com dados em painel sobre uma base de dados de janeiro de 1997 a setembro de 2008 para 40 países. Utilizou-se como variáveis, o PIB, inflação, câmbio, taxa real de juros e concentração de mercado. Verificou-se que o modelo apresenta indícios que as variáveis utilizadas podem ser consideradas como determinantes do risco sistemático e ainda, que o nível de concentração de um mercado acionário pode determinar o nível de risco sistemático de um país. / The theories about systematic risk initiated in 1932 with Knight always sought to determine variables that could explain and determine the level of systematic risk of a financial system. In this sense, this study proposes to investigate the variables that may determine the level of systematic risk of a country, using a market model to estimate the betas and regressions with panel data in a database on January 1997 to September 2008 for 40 countries. As variables, were used GDP, inflation, exchange rate, real interest rate and market concentration. It was verified that the model shows evidence that the variables used can be considered as determinants of systematic risk and that the concentration level of a stock market may determine the level of systematic risk of a country.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T21:42:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SERGIO LUIZ NASCIMENTO.pdf: 981514 bytes, checksum: 2b19c2940a97c73dc593c53833e64185 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-06 / In the contemporary moment, there is an intense movement of financial capital, either because of mergers and acquisitions of companies, is the natural expansion of capitalism itself, thus leading organizations to seek alternative financing at lower costs, when it considered rates interest charged by financial institutions. Concurrent with this, monetary authorities seek to reduce circumstantially interest rates that drive the economy in order to to attract new investment in production and still preserve those existing. So even paradoxical, the reduction in interest rates promulgated by the authorities, does not display the same reduction rate from those practiced by the market. This leads individuals, whether or not investment managers to seek alternative investments that provide monetary gains in excess of those which are based on rates set by monetary authorities. Combining the search for resources by organizations and the pursuit of higher monetary gains by investors, the stock market becomes a relevant alternative. In order to achieve the best results in this environment, no need to use templates and other tools that provide the best balance between risk and return given that every investor emits at least some risk aversion. Several instruments are available to perform these relationships, however, many of them not available to the investor on the condition of an individual. And by this point, the model developed by Edwin Elton and Martin Gruber appears as an alternative to any investor, whether by their construction, whether for its operation. / Atualmente, nota-se uma intensa movimentação de capitais financeiros, seja por conta de fusões e incorporações de empresas, seja pela expansão natural do próprio capitalismo, levando então as organizações a buscarem alternativas de financiamento com menores custos, isso quando consideradas as taxas de juros praticadas por instituições financeiras. Concomitantemente a isso, autoridades monetárias, circunstancialmente buscam a redução das taxas de juros que norteiam a economia, no intuito de se atrair novos investimentos produtivos e ainda preservar aqueles existentes. De maneira até paradoxal, a redução das taxas de juros promulgada por autoridades, não exibe a mesma proporção de redução daquelas praticadas pelo mercado. Este aspecto leva os indivíduos, sejam eles gestores de investimentos ou não, a buscarem alternativas de investimentos que proporcionem ganhos monetários superiores àqueles que são fundamentados nas taxas estabelecidas pelas autoridades monetárias. Conciliando a busca de recursos por organizações e a busca por maiores ganhos monetários por parte dos investidores, o mercado de capitais se torna uma alternativa relevante. De modo a conseguir os melhores resultados nesse ambiente, há necessidade de se utilizar modelos e outros instrumentos que propiciem a melhor relação entre risco e retorno, haja vista que todo investidor emite ao menos alguma aversão ao risco. Vários são os instrumentos disponíveis para realizar essas relações, entretanto, muitos deles não acessíveis ao investidor na condição de pessoa física. E mediante esse aspecto, o modelo desenvolvido por Edwin Elton e Martin Gruber surge como alternativa a qualquer investidor, seja por suas características construtivas, seja por sua operacionalidade.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2017-11-20T14:20:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Anderson Severino de Oliveira Tavares.pdf: 813840 bytes, checksum: 334f9c575c2a579e62b03421981758cf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-20T14:20:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Anderson Severino de Oliveira Tavares.pdf: 813840 bytes, checksum: 334f9c575c2a579e62b03421981758cf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02 / O presente estudo tem como objetivos (1) colocar sob exame os pressupostos analíticos de Berger (1985) e de Guerra (2000), mais precisamente seu Paradigma da Semelhança, segundo o qual instituições religiosas operando em uma situação de mercado religioso, na medida em que competem pelos mesmos segmentos de consumidores, tendem a assemelhar uma parte significativa de seus modelos de religiosidade; (2) estudar o lado da demanda dos católicos, analisando o consumo que estes fazem - os que viveram os modelos anteriores de Igreja Católica, agora vivenciando esse novo “modo de ser” católico, e os que já nasceram nesse modelo assemelhado de igreja - dos produtos semelhantes observados, compreendendo o consumo a partir das apropriações práticas que os fiéis fazem daquilo que consomem. Nossa metodologia consistiu da comparação de sites de uma amostra de Paróquias da Diocese de Campina Grande - PB com os sites de uma amostra de igrejas neopentecostais da mesma cidade, verificando o que vem se assemelhando em termos do que oferecem enquanto atividades religiosas. Além disso, realizamos entrevistas semi-estruturadas com uma amostra não aleatória de fiéis católicos, estratificados por idade e paróquias cujos sites foram analisados, como acima indicado. Dentre as nossas conclusões, destacamos a confirmação das proposições gerais do Paradigma da Semelhança, no caso estudado, no qual se verificou a assemelhação de produtos oferecidos para o segmento dos jovens pelas paróquias da IC e pelas igrejas evangélicas analisadas. Ainda destacamos que os fiéis católicos mais jovens que entrevistamos demonstram maior adaptabilidade a esse novo modo de ser da Igreja Católica, já que os eventos tornaram-se uma forma de “entretenimento sagrado”, enquanto os mais velhos demonstraram certo desconhecimento das atividades assemelhadas que encontramos. / The present study aims to (1) bring into focus the analytical assumptions of Berger (1985) and Guerra (2000) about the religious market dynamics, more precisely its Similarity Paradigm, whereby religious institutions operating in a situation of religious market, insofar competing for the same consumer segments, tend to resemble a significant part of their models of religiosity; (2) study the demand side of the Catholics, analyzing the consumption that they make - those who lived through the previous models of the Catholic Church, now experiencing this new "way of being" Catholic, and those who were born in this model of resembled Church – of similar products observed, understanding the consumption from the practical aprropriations consumers do of that they consume. Our methodology consisted of the comparison of a non-randomized sample of Catholic Parishes from the Diocese of Campina Grande (Paraiba State) sites with a nonrandomized sample of neo-Pentecostal churches sites in the same town, checking out what comes resembling in terms of that they offer as religious activities. In addition, we conducted semi-structured interviews with a nonrandomized sample of Catholics parishioners, stratified by age and parishes whose sites were analyzed as described above. Among our findings, we highlight the confirmation of the general propositions of the Paradigm of Similarity, in the case studied, which revealed the resemblance between products offered to the segment of young people by the IC parishes and evangelical churches analyzed. We also highlight that younger Catholics we interviewed demonstrate greater adaptability to this new way of being of the Catholic Church, as the events have become a form of "sacred entertainment", while the olderones showed a certain lack of knowledge about the similar activities we found out.