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Abstract In 2019 e-commerce market become one of the most important part to push the global economic growth especially in China and US. In 2020 Covid-19 has widely spread around the world which caused a severe economic crisis, but e-commerce market has gained benefit from it. In this study will discuss how e-commerce will perform in future and how e-commerce reacts and defend in this crisis. This study used method of discounted cash flow to track the fundamental information of EC market as representative of Alibaba and Amazon, also used event study method to test influence of COVID-19 in the whole industry

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / This dissertation investigates the long run and short run relationships between Saudi stock market returns and eight macroeconomic variables. We investigate the ability of these variables to predict the level and volatility of Saudi stock market returns. A wide range of Vector autoregression (VAR) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models estimated and interpreted. A Johansen-Juselius cointegration test indicates a positive long run relationship between the Saudi stock price index and the M2 money supply, bank credit, and the price of oil, and a negative long run relationship with the M1 money supply, the short term interest rate, inflation, and the U.S. stock market. An estimated vector error correction model (VECM) suggests significant unidirectional short run causal relationships between Saudi stock market returns and the money supply and inflation. The VECM also finds a significant long run causal relationship among the macroeconomic variables in the system. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Saudi stock market converges to the equilibrium within half a year. Granger causality tests show no causal relationship between Saudi stock market returns and the exchange rate. Impulse response function analysis shows no significant relationship between Saudi stock market returns and the macroeconomic variables. Forecast error variance decompositions suggest that 89% of the variation in Saudi stock market returns is attributable to its own shock, which implies that Saudi stock market returns are largely independent of the macroeconomic variables in the system. Finally, a GARCH-X model indicates a significant relationship between volatility of Saudi stock returns and short run movements of macroeconomic variables. Implications of this study include the following. (i) Prediction of stock market returns becomes more difficult as the volatility of the macroeconomic variables increases in the short run. (ii) Investors should look at the systematic risks revealed by these macroeconomic variables when structuring their portfolios and diversification strategies. (iii) Policymakers should seek to minimize macroeconomic fluctuations considering the effect of macroeconomic variables changes on the stock market when formulating economic policy.

Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka vad det finns för finansiellt syfte med att köpa namnrättigheterna för en arena där det i främsta fall bedrivs idrottsrelaterade evenemang. Delsyftet är att undersöka hur företagets aktiekurs påverkas vid tillkännagivandet av att de blir arenasponsor samt att se huruvida arenasponsorns aktiekurs påverkas efter att ett idrottsevenemang ägt rum. Metod: Undersökningen är en flerfallsstudie av fem företag där en metodtriangulering med en kombination av kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod används för att på så sätt ge en rättvis bild av fenomenet. Uppsatsen utgår från ett positivistiskt vetenskapligt förhållningssätt och ett deduktivt angreppssätt. Den kvalitativa delen av uppsatsen består av primärdata i form av intervjuer med personer från ansvariga positioner på företagen. Den kvantitativa delen består av en eventstudie-metodologi där den insamlade datan användes för att mäta om en avvikande avkastning (AR) uppstod i samband med tillkännagivelsen av namnrättighetsaffären samt en genomsnittlig avvikande avkastning (AAR) vid idrottsevenemangen. Utöver detta undersöktes även om specifika matchutfall påverkade företagens aktiekurs. Eventperioden för idrottsevenemangen sattes till dagen efter evenemanget medan eventperioden för tillkännagivelsen sattes till 75 dagar, 25 dagar innan och 50 dagar efter nyheten. Uppsatsens estimeringsperiod omfattade i båda fall 70 dagar. Resultat: Vid tillkännagivandet av arenarättighetsaffären uppvisar resultatet mellan en positiv AR på 2,48 procent till en negativ AR på 1,44 procent för de sex rättighetsaffärerna. Vid matchutfallen uppvisar resultatet allt från en positiv AAR på 0,26 procent till en negativ AR på -0,06 procent. Slutsats: Arenasponsringens stora finansiella vinning ges genom ett starkt varumärkeskapande vilket på sikt leder till ökade finansiella fördelar för företaget med namnrättigheterna av arenan. Finansiellt påverkades inte företagets aktiekurs av varken matchutfall eller tillkännagivandet av arenasponsringsnyheten. / Purpose: The aim of the thesis is to see what the financial purpose is for buying the naming rights of an arena where the main activity is sporting events. The subsidiary aim is to investigate if the company's share price is affected by the announcement that they became arena sponsors and to see whether the stadium sponsor's share price is affected after a sporting event has taken place. Methodology: The survey is one multi-case study of five companies, which are based on both a quantitative and a qualitative approach. The paper was based on a positivistic scientific approach and deductive approaches. The qualitative part of the thesis consists of primary data in the form of interviews with individuals holding responsible positions in the companies. The quantitative part consisted of an eventstudy, where the collected data is used to measure if an abnormal return (AR) has arisen in connection with the announcement of the name rights deal and an average abnormal return (AAR) in connections with the sporting events. Event period for sporting events is added to the day after the event while the event period for the announcement is added to 75 days, 25 days before and 50 days after the news. The surveys estimationperiod was comprised to 70 days. Results: At the announcement of the arena namingrights deal presented results from a positive AR of 2.48 percent to a negative AR of 1.44 percent. During the match, the outcome showed the results of a positive AAR of 0.26 percent to a negative AR of -0.06 percent. Conclusions: The big financial benefit of buying the naming rights of an arena is the strong brandbuilding which ultimately leads to increased financial benefits for the sponsoring company. The company's share price is not affected  by either match outcomes or the announcement of the sponsorship deal.

[pt] O Prêmio de Risco do mercado acionário, infelizmente, não possui uma definição universalmente aceita. O material já publicado sobre o tema Prêmio de Risco do mercado acionário é muito vasto e abrangente, abordando desde análises ex- post sobre dados históricos (com diversos períodos amostrais, intervalos de observação, fatores de ajuste e em diversos países) até estimativas do prêmio ex-ante através dos mais variados modelos baseados em variáveis tais como aversão a risco, crescimento do consumo, dados contábeis e dividend yield, entre outros. O objetivo desta dissertação será analisarmos uma condensação das várias abordagens utilizadas, seus resultados e contribuições. Frente as significativas diferenças encontradas ao se computar o prêmio de risco, é fundamental o usuário da estimativa do prêmio de risco saber claramente qual a definição usada na estimativa e por que tal definição seria apropriada para seu propósito particular. No final dessa dissertação realizaremos uma estimativa do prêmio de risco no Brasil com base em um estudo de 1993 realizado pela McKinsey e Company, Inc. / [en] Unfortunately, there is no universally accepted definition of the Equity Risk Premium. Available material on the theme are very broad and deep, ranging from ex-post analysis on historical data -with distinct samples in different time periods- to ex-ante estimates of the equity premium making use of several models based in variables such as risk aversion, consumption growth, accounting data and dividend yield, among others. The objective of this paper will be to analyze a compilation of several approaches taken, their results and contributions. In face of the significant differences presented when computing the equity premium, it is key for the investor who will make use of the equity premium estimate to know clearly which definition of the premium he will be using and why is that definition appropriate for his particular purpose. In the final chapter we will estimate the equity risk premium in Brazil based on a study developed in 1993 by McKinsey and Company, Inc.

本研究最主要的貢獻為建構一具台灣股市投資人情緒指數並檢測投資人情緒指標與台灣股市的關係。本研究以台灣股票市場為背景，研究期間為2001年1月至2010年12月。利用Baker, Wurgler and Yuan在2009年提出的方法以Volatility Premium, Number of IPOs, First Day Return of IPOs, Turnover Rate四個變數編製台灣股市投資人情緒指數，並探討台灣股市投資人情緒指數變動量與台股大盤報酬之間的領先落後關係。 實證結果發現，在較短的時間，如月資料，台股大盤報酬會影響下一期的台灣股市投資人情緒指數變動量，而在較長的時間，如季資料，台灣股市投資人情緒指數變動量會影響四期後的台股大盤報酬，即短期台灣股市投資人情緒指數變動量為大盤報酬之落後指標，長期則為大盤報酬之領先指標，短期原因為投資人情緒指數受大盤報酬影響，而易有追高殺低現象，長期雖投資人情緒領先大盤報酬的結果在統計上顯著，但經濟上並無顯著意義，另一方面，台股大盤報酬與台灣股市投資人情緒指數變動量間存在正相關，即不能以台灣股市投資人情緒指數變動量預測股市泡沫。 / The main contribution would be the construction of the sentiment index in Taiwan stock markets and examining the relationship between the variation of the sentiment index and Taiwan stock market returns. The background is Taiwan stock markets. The sample period is from January 2001 to December 2010. We use the method in Baker, Wurgler and Yuan (2009) to measure investors’ sentiment and explore the relationship between the variation of the sentiment index and Taiwan stock market returns. The empirical result reveals that in monthly data, Taiwan stock market returns is the leading indicator of the variation of investment sentiment. In a longer term, we mean the quarterly data in this paper, the situation changes. In quarterly data, the variation of the investment sentiment is the leading indicator of the Taiwan stock market returns. In addition, instead of a negative correlation between the stock market returns and our sentiment index, we prove that our sentiment index have a positive impact on stock market returns. Therefore, we could not use this sentiment index to forecast future economic bubbles.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 cassiohannavaldujoturma2004.pdf.jpg: 20231 bytes, checksum: 62e51410ac906f6e00f1e12da5316a49 (MD5) cassiohannavaldujoturma2004.pdf: 413423 bytes, checksum: 8213eb03aca7db7895e101c61e2a7f51 (MD5) cassiohannavaldujoturma2004.pdf.txt: 79476 bytes, checksum: 55d018233791503e2867b643e0a8d988 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-01-04T00:00:00Z / We examine whether non-return-based measures of stock market uncertainty, like the volatility from equity indexes and detrended stock turnover can be linked to timevariation in the correlation between daily stock and bonds returns. We find a positive relation between the uncertainty measures and the future correlation of stock and bond returns. Furthermore, we find that bond returns tend to be high (low), relative to stock returns, during days when volatility varies substantially (a little) and during days when stock turnover is unexpectedly high (low). Our findings suggest that stock market uncertainty has important fixed income pricing influences, implying a crossmarket approach in the asset allocation process. / Estudamos a possibilidade de que medidas de incerteza no mercado acionário estejam relacionadas com a variação temporal da correlação entre os retornos dos mercados de renda fixa e renda variável. Encontramos evidências de uma relação direta entre as medidas de volatilidade e a correlação futura dos retornos dos mercados estudados. Além disso, percebemos que o retorno do mercado de renda fixa tende a ser maior (menor) em comparação ao do mercado de renda variável quando a volatilidade deste apresenta variações maiores (menores) e em dias em que o volume de operações é inexplicavelmente alto (baixo). Nossos resultados sugerem que incertezas do mercado acionário têm influência no apreçamento do mercado de renda fixa, trazendo implicações de efeitos de cross-market pricing na gestão de recursos.

Using three different models, we examine the determinants of average stock returns on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during 2012-2016. By using time-series data, we find that a Fama-French three-factor model (directed at capturing size and book-to-market ratio) functions quite well in the Swedish stock market and is able to explain the variation in returns better than the traditional CAPM. Additionally, we investigated if the addition of a Price/Earning variable to the Fama-French model would increase the explanatory power of the expected returns of the different dependent variables portfolios. We conclude that the P/E ratio does not influence the expected returns in the sample we used.

已實現投資報酬率與無風險利率之差、被稱為超額報酬，而股票的預期報酬率超過無風險利率的部份則為股票風險溢酬，是許多資產評價模型的重要依據，例如資本資產定價模型。有不同的理論架構解釋說明風險溢酬值，例如；股票風險溢酬的迷思、短期損失的憎惡、生還存留因素和回歸與偏離平均值等等。 研究台灣股市的超額報酬與股票風險溢酬，有助投資大眾和企業理性面對股市的預期報酬和風險，對台股才有合理的期望報酬值。分析1967年迄2003年的台灣金融市場，計算過去37年長期的幾何平均年報酬率，以臺灣證券交易所發行量加權股價指數為台股市場報酬率，已實現台股實質年報酬率為6.71%。無風險報酬率使用第一銀行的一年期定期存款利率，實質台幣存款年利率為3.07%，消費者物價指數年增率則為4.80%。以年資料計算的台股實質超額報酬，算術和幾何值分別為12.48%和3.63%(年)，計算月資料算術平均和幾何平均值分別為0.77%和0.25%(月)。過去37年長期的台股超額報酬現象未較歐美市場的情況更加明顯，也比一般市場的預期報酬率低。 因資料取得的限制、台股的理論超額報酬方面，1991年迄2003年的近十三年來，經固定股利成長模式和盈餘成長模式的兩種計算方式，台股的實質超額報酬分別為 0.6%和-4.3%，此時期台股的投資報酬率比起台幣存款並不突出、且是低超額報酬。同期的已實現的實質超額報酬值；算術平均1.69%和幾何平均-3.35%。評估目前台股風險溢酬，將十分接近過去37年長期歷史資料得到的超額報酬數值，算術年均值為12.48%(年)和0.77%(月)，幾何平均分別為3.63%(年)和0.25%(月)，低風險溢酬是當前台灣股票市場的一般現象。 / The difference between the observed historical investment return and the risk-free interest rate is the excess return. The equity risk premium, ERP is the expected rate of return on the aggregate stock market in excess of the rate of risk-free security. ERP is one of important factor of many asset-pricing models, including Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM. There were many theories and factors to explain the equity risk premium; equity premium puzzle, myopic loss aversion, survivorship bias, mean reversion & aversion and etc. Studying the value of Taiwan equity excess return and risk premium is fundamental for investors and institutions evaluating the expected market investment return and risk. Analyzing the data from year 1967 to 2003 for thirty-seven years long holding period, Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index as Taiwan stock market return, the realized real return was 6.71%. One-year bank time deposit rate as NT dollars risk-free asset rate and real interest rate was 3.07% and consumer price index, CPI annual growth rate was 4.80%. The historical real yearly excess return was 12.45% for arithmetic mean and 3.63% geometric mean; the historical real monthly excess return was 0.77% for arithmetic mean and 0.25% geometric mean. Taiwan realized equity excess returns were not higher than the returns in the developed countries and were also lower than the market's expectation. Due to the limits of available data, the theoretical equity excess returns that were calculated on two theoretical models; Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model (dividend yield model) and earnings yield model were 0.6% and -4.3% from year 1991 to year 2003. Comparing the same period of historical realized excess returns of 1.69% for arithmetic mean and -3.35% geometric mean, Taiwan stock market returns were not spectacular. The current equity risk premium of Taiwan stock market is low and should be near the level of the long historical realized equity excess return.