Esta tesis reune algunas contribuciones al reconocimiento de formas estadístico y, más especícamente, a varias tareas del procesamiento del lenguaje natural. Varias técnicas estadísticas bien conocidas se revisan en esta tesis, a saber: estimación paramétrica, diseño de la función de pérdida y modelado estadístico. Estas técnicas se aplican a varias tareas del procesamiento del lenguajes natural tales como clasicación de documentos, modelado del lenguaje natural y traducción automática estadística. En relación con la estimación paramétrica, abordamos el problema del suavizado proponiendo una nueva técnica de estimación por máxima verosimilitud con dominio restringido (CDMLEa ). La técnica CDMLE evita la necesidad de la etapa de suavizado que propicia la pérdida de las propiedades del estimador máximo verosímil. Esta técnica se aplica a clasicación de documentos mediante el clasificador Naive Bayes. Más tarde, la técnica CDMLE se extiende a la estimación por máxima verosimilitud por leaving-one-out aplicandola al suavizado de modelos de lenguaje. Los resultados obtenidos en varias tareas de modelado del lenguaje natural, muestran una mejora en términos de perplejidad. En a la función de pérdida, se estudia cuidadosamente el diseño de funciones de pérdida diferentes a la 0-1. El estudio se centra en aquellas funciones de pérdida que reteniendo una complejidad de decodificación similar a la función 0-1, proporcionan una mayor flexibilidad. Analizamos y presentamos varias funciones de pérdida en varias tareas de traducción automática y con varios modelos de traducción. También, analizamos algunas reglas de traducción que destacan por causas prácticas tales como la regla de traducción directa; y, así mismo, profundizamos en la comprensión de los modelos log-lineares, que son de hecho, casos particulares de funciones de pérdida. Finalmente, se proponen varios modelos de traducción monótonos basados en técnicas de modelado estadístico . / Andrés Ferrer, J. (2010). Statistical approaches for natural language modelling and monotone statistical machine translation [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/7109 / Palancia

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse concernent l'analyse statistique de cas particuliers du processus de Cox. Dans une première partie, nous proposons une synthèse des résultats existants sur le processus power-law (processus d'intensité puissance), synthèse qui ne peut être exhaustive étant donné la popularité de ce processus. Nous considérons une approche bayésienne pour l'inférence des paramètres de ce processus qui nous conduit à introduire et à étudier en détails une distribution que nous appelons loi H-B. Cette loi est une loi conjuguée. Nous proposons des stratégies d'élicitation des hyperparamètres et étudions le comportement des estimateurs de Bayes par des simulations. Dans un deuxième temps, nous étendons ces travaux au cas du processus d’intensité exponentielle (exponential-law process). De la même façon, nous définissons et étudions une loi conjuguée pour l'analyse bayésienne de ce dernier. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, nous considérons un processus auto-excité qui intègre une covariable. Ce travail est motivé, à l'origine, par un problème de fiabilité qui concerne des données de défaillances de matériels exposés à des environnements sévères. Les résultats sont illustrés par des applications sur des données d'activités orageuses collectées dans deux départements français. Enfin, nous donnons quelques directions de travail et perspectives de futurs développements de l'ensemble de nos travaux. / The work presented in this PhD dissertation concerns the statistical analysis of some particular cases of the Cox process. In a first part, we study the power-law process (PLP). Since the literature for the PLP is abundant, we suggest a state-of-art for the process. We consider the classical approach and recall some important properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Then we investigate a Bayesian approach with noninformative priors and conjugate priors considering different parametrizations and scenarios of prior guesses. That leads us to define a family of distributions that we name H-B distribution as the natural conjugate priors for the PLP. Bayesian analysis with the conjugate priors are conducted via a simulation study and an application on real data. In a second part, we study the exponential-law process (ELP). We review the maximum likelihood techniques. For Bayesian analysis of the ELP, we define conjugate priors: the modified- Gumbel distribution and Gamma-modified-Gumbel distribution. We conduct a simulation study to compare maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian estimates. In the third part, we investigate self-exciting point processes and we integrate a power-law covariate model to this intensity of this process. A maximum likelihood procedure for the model is proposed and the Bayesian approach is suggested. Lastly, we present an application on thunderstorm data collected in two French regions. We consider a strategy to define a thunderstorm as a temporal process associated with the charges in a particular location. Some selected thunderstorms are analyzed. We propose a reduced maximum likelihood procedure to estimate the parameters of the Hawkes process. Then we fit some thunderstorms to the power-law covariate self-exciting point process taking into account the associated charges. In conclusion, we give some perspectives for further work.

Spectrum, environment and location awareness are key characteristics of cognitive radio (CR). Knowledge of a user’s location as well as the surrounding environment type may enhance various CR tasks, such as spectrum sensing, dynamic channel allocation and interference management. This dissertation deals with the optimisation of adaptive localisation techniques for CR. The first part entails the development and evaluation of an efficient bandwidth determination (BD) model, which is a key component of the cognitive positioning system. This bandwidth efficiency is achieved using the Cramer-Rao lower bound derivations for a single-input-multiple-output (SIMO) antenna scheme. The performances of the single-input-single-output (SISO) and SIMO BD models are compared using three different generalised environmental models, viz. rural, urban and suburban areas. In the case of all three scenarios, the results reveal a marked improvement in the bandwidth efficiency for a SIMO antenna positioning scheme, especially for the 1×3 urban case, where a 62% root mean square error (RMSE) improvement over the SISO system is observed. The second part of the dissertation involves the presentation of a multiband time-of arrival (TOA) positioning technique for CR. The RMSE positional accuracy is evaluated using a fixed and dynamic bandwidth availability model. In the case of the fixed bandwidth availability model, the multiband TOA positioning model is initially evaluated using the two-step maximum-likelihood (TSML) location estimation algorithm for a scenario where line-of-sight represents the dominant signal path. Thereafter, a more realistic dynamic bandwidth availability model has been proposed, which is based on data obtained from an ultra-high frequency spectrum occupancy measurement campaign. The RMSE performance is then verified using the non-linear least squares, linear least squares and TSML location estimation techniques, using five different bandwidths. The proposed multiband positioning model performs well in poor signal-to-noise ratio conditions (-10 dB to 0 dB) when compared to a single band TOA system. These results indicate the advantage of opportunistic TOA location estimation in a CR environment. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / unrestricted

[pt] O principal objetivo desta dissertação é realizar a previsão da reserva IBNR. Para isto foi desenvolvido um modelo estatístico de distribuições combinadas que busca uma adequada representação dos dados. A reserva IBNR, sigla em inglês para Incurred But Not Reported, representa o montante que as seguradoras precisam ter para pagamentos de sinistros atrasados, que já ocorreram no passado, mas ainda não foram avisados à seguradora até a data presente. Dada a importância desta reserva, diversos métodos para estimação da reserva IBNR já foram propostos. Um dos métodos mais utilizado pelas seguradoras é o Método Chain Ladder, que se baseia em triângulos run-off, que é o agrupamento dos dados conforme data de ocorrência e aviso de sinistro. No entanto o agrupamento dos dados faz com que informações importantes sejam perdidas. Esta dissertação baseada em outros artigos e trabalhos que consideram o não agrupamento dos dados, propõe uma nova modelagem para os dados não agrupados. O modelo proposto combina a distribuição do atraso no aviso da ocorrência, representada aqui pela distribuição log-normal truncada (pois só há informação até a última data observada); a distribuição da quantidade total de sinistros ocorridos num dado período, modelada pela distribuição Poisson; e a distribuição do número de sinistros ocorridos em um dado período e avisados até a última data observada, que será caracterizada por uma distribuição Binomial. Por fim, a quantidade de sinistros IBNR foi estimada por método e pelo Chain Ladder e avaliou-se a capacidade de previsão de ambos. Apesar da distribuição de atrasos do modelo proposto se adequar bem aos dados, o modelo proposto obteve resultados inferiores ao Chain Ladder em termos de previsão. / [en] The main objective of this dissertation is to predict the IBNR reserve. For this, it was developed a statistical model of combined distributions looking for a new distribution that fits the data well. The IBNR reserve, short for Incurred But Not Reported, represents the amount that insurers need to have to pay for the claims that occurred in the past but have not been reported until the present date. Given the importance of this reserve, several methods for estimating this reserve have been proposed. One of the most used methods for the insurers is the Chain Ladder, which is based on run-off triangles; this is a format of grouping the data according to the occurrence and the reported date. However this format causes the lost of important information. This dissertation, based on other articles and works that consider the data not grouped, proposes a new model for the non-aggregated data. The proposed model combines the delay in the claim report distribution represented by a log normal truncated (because there is only information until the last observed date); the total amount of claims incurred in a given period modeled by a Poisson distribution and the number of claims occurred in a certain period and reported until the last observed date characterized by a binomial distribution. Finally, the IBNR reserve was estimated by this method and by the chain ladder and the prediction capacity of both methods will be evaluated. Although the delay distribution seems to fit the data well, the proposed model obtained inferior results to the Chain Ladder in terms of forecast.

By issuing interest rate derivative contracts, market makers such as large banks are exposed to undesired risk. There are several methods for banks to hedge themselves against this type of risk; one such method is the stochastic programming model developed by Blomvall and Hagenbjörk (2022). The effectiveness of their model relies on accurate pricing of interest rate derivatives and risk factor analysis, both of which are derived from a term structure. Blomvall and Ndengo (2013) present a discretized multiple yield curve framework for term structure measurement that allows for price deviations. The model uses regularization to deal with noise inherent in market price observations, where the regularization counteracts oscillations in the term structure and retains the smoothness of the curve by penalizing the first and second-order derivatives. Consequently, the resulting model creates a trade-off between a smooth curve and market price deviations. Changes in policy rates adjusted by a country’s central bank significantly impact the financial market and its actors. In this thesis, the model developed by Blomvall and Ndengo (2013) was further extended to include these steps in conjunction with monetary policy meetings. Two models were developed to realize the steps in the risk-free curve. The first model introduced an additional deviation term to allow for a shift in the curve. In the second model, the weights in the regularization were adjusted to allow for rapid changes on days surrounding the closest monetary policy meeting. A statistical test was conducted to determine the performance of the two models. The test showed that the model with adjusted regularization outperformed the model with an additional deviation term as well as a benchmark model without steps. However, both step models managed to reduce in-sample pricing errors, while the model with an additional deviation term performed worse than the benchmark model for out-of-sample data, given the current parameter setting. Other parameter combinations would potentially result in different outcomes, but it remains conjectural.

Normalizing flows represent a class of generative models that exhibit a number of attractive properties, but do not always achieve state-of-the-art performance when it comes to perceived naturalness of generated samples. To improve the quality of generated samples, this thesis examines methods to enhance the expressivity of discrete-time normalizing flow models and thus their ability to capture different aspects of the data. In the first part of the thesis, we propose an invertible neural network architecture as an alternative to popular architectures like Glow that require an individual neural network per flow step. Although our proposal greatly reduces the number of parameters, it has not been done before, as such architectures are believed to not be powerful enough. For this reason, we define two optional extensions that could greatly increase the expressivity of the architecture. We use augmentation to add Gaussian noise variables to the input to achieve arbitrary hidden-layer widths that are no longer dictated by the dimensionality of the data. Moreover, we implement Piecewise Affine Activation Functions that represent a generalization of Leaky ReLU activations and allow for more powerful transformations in every individual step. The resulting three models are evaluated on two simple synthetic datasets – the two moons dataset and one generated from a mixture of eight Gaussians. Our findings indicate that the proposed architectures cannot adequately model these simple datasets and thus do not represent alternatives to current stateof-the-art models. The Piecewise Affine Activation Function significantly improved the expressivity of the invertible neural network, but could not make use of its full potential due to inappropriate assumptions about the function’s input distribution. Further research is needed to ensure that the input to this function is always standard normal distributed. We conducted further experiments with augmentation using the Glow model and could show minor improvements on the synthetic datasets when only few flow steps (two, three or four) were used. However, in a more realistic scenario, the model would encompass many more flow steps. Lastly, we generalized the transformation in the coupling layers of modern flow architectures from an elementwise affine transformation to a matrixbased affine transformation and studied the effect this had on MoGlow, a flow-based model of motion. We could show that McMoGlow, our modified version of MoGlow, consistently achieved a better training likelihood than the original MoGlow on human locomotion data. However, a subjective user study found no statistically significant difference in the perceived naturalness of the samples generated. As a possible reason for this, we hypothesize that the improvements are subtle and more visible in samples that exhibit slower movements or edge cases which may have been underrepresented in the user study. / Normalizing flows representerar en klass av generativa modeller som besitter ett antal eftertraktade egenskaper, men som inte alltid uppnår toppmodern prestanda när det gäller upplevd naturlighet hos genererade data. För att förbättra kvaliteten på dessa modellers utdata, undersöker detta examensarbete metoder för att förbättra uttrycksfullheten hos Normalizing flows-modeller i diskret tid, och därmed deras förmåga att fånga olika aspekter av datamaterialet. I den första delen av uppsatsen föreslår vi en arkitektur uppbyggt av ett inverterbart neuralt nätverk. Vårt förslag är ett alternativ till populära arkitekturer som Glow, vilka kräver individuella neuronnät för varje flödessteg. Även om vårt förslag kraftigt minskar antalet parametrar har detta inte gjorts tidigare, då sådana arkitekturer inte ansetts vara tillräckligt kraftfulla. Av den anledningen definierar vi två oberoende utökningar till arkitekturen som skulle kunna öka dess uttrycksfullhet avsevärt. Vi använder så kallad augmentation, som konkatenerar Gaussiska brusvariabler till observationsvektorerna för att uppnå godtyckliga bredder i de dolda lagren, så att deras bredd inte längre begränsas av datadimensionaliteten. Dessutom implementerar vi Piecewise Affine Activation-funktioner (PAAF), vilka generaliserar Leaky ReLU-aktiveringar genom att möjliggöra mer kraftfulla transformationer i varje enskilt steg. De resulterande tre modellerna utvärderas med hjälp av två enkla syntetiska datamängder - ”the two moons dataset” och ett som genererats genom att blanda av åtta Gaussfördelningar. Våra resultat visar att de föreslagna arkitekturerna inte kan modellera de enkla datamängderna på ett tillfredsställande sätt, och därmed inte utgör kompetitiva alternativ till nuvarande moderna modeller. Den styckvisa aktiveringsfunktionen förbättrade det inverterbara neurala nätverkets uttrycksfullhet avsevärt, men kunde inte utnyttja sin fulla potential på grund av felaktiga antaganden om funktionens indatafördelning. Ytterligare forskning behövs för att hantera detta problem. Vi genomförde ytterligare experiment med augmentation av Glow-modellen och kunde påvisa vissa förbättringar på de syntetiska dataseten när endast ett fåtal flödessteg (två, tre eller fyra) användes. Däremot omfattar modeller i mer realistiska scenarion många fler flödessteg. Slutligen generaliserade vi transformationen i kopplingslagren hos moderna flödesarkitekturer från en elementvis affin transformation till en matrisbaserad affin transformation, samt studerade vilken effekt detta hade på MoGlow, en flödesbaserad modell av 3D-rörelser. Vi kunde visa att McMoGlow, vår modifierade version av MoGlow, konsekvent uppnådde bättre likelihood i träningen än den ursprungliga MoGlow gjorde på mänskliga rörelsedata. En subjektiv användarstudie på exempelrörelser genererade från MoGlow och McMoGlow visade dock ingen statistiskt signifikant skillnad i användarnas uppfattning av hur naturliga rörelserna upplevdes. Som en möjlig orsak till detta antar vi att förbättringarna är subtila och mer synliga i situationer som uppvisar långsammare rörelser eller i olika gränsfall som kan ha varit underrepresenterade i användarstudien.

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions. / Les gens consacrent une importante part de leur existence à prendre diverses décisions, pouvant affecter leur demande en transport, par exemple les choix de lieux d'habitation et de travail, les modes de transport, les heures de départ, le nombre et type de voitures dans le ménage, les itinéraires ... Les choix liés au transport sont généralement fonction du temps et caractérisés par un grand nombre de solutions alternatives qui peuvent être spatialement corrélées. Cette thèse traite de modèles pouvant être utilisés pour analyser et prédire les choix discrets dans les applications liées aux réseaux de grandes tailles. Les modèles et méthodes proposées sont particulièrement pertinents pour les applications en transport, sans toutefois s'y limiter. Nous modélisons les décisions comme des séquences de choix, dans le cadre des choix discrets dynamiques, aussi connus comme processus de décision de Markov paramétriques. Ces modèles sont réputés difficiles à estimer et à appliquer en prédiction, puisque le calcul des probabilités de choix requiert la résolution de problèmes de programmation dynamique. Nous montrons dans cette thèse qu'il est possible d'exploiter la structure du réseau et la flexibilité de la programmation dynamique afin de rendre l'approche de modélisation dynamique en choix discrets non seulement utile pour représenter les choix dépendant du temps, mais également pour modéliser plus facilement des choix statiques au sein d'ensembles de choix de très grande taille. La thèse se compose de sept articles, présentant divers modèles et méthodes d'estimation, leur application ainsi que des expériences numériques sur des modèles de choix discrets de grande taille. Nous regroupons les contributions en trois principales thématiques: modélisation du choix de route, estimation de modèles en valeur extrême multivariée (MEV) de grande taille et algorithmes d'optimisation non-linéaire. Cinq articles sont associés à la modélisation de choix de route. Nous proposons différents modèles de choix discrets dynamiques permettant aux utilités des chemins d'être corrélées, sur base de formulations MEV et logit mixte. Les modèles résultants devenant coûteux à estimer, nous présentons de nouvelles approches permettant de diminuer les efforts de calcul. Nous proposons par exemple une méthode de décomposition qui non seulement ouvre la possibilité d'estimer efficacement des modèles logit mixte, mais également d'accélérer l'estimation de modèles simples comme les modèles logit multinomiaux, ce qui a également des implications en simulation de trafic. De plus, nous comparons les règles de décision basées sur le principe de maximisation d'utilité de celles sur la minimisation du regret pour ce type de modèles. Nous proposons finalement un test statistique sur les erreurs de spécification pour les modèles de choix de route basés sur le logit multinomial. Le second thème porte sur l'estimation de modèles de choix discrets statiques avec de grands ensembles de choix. Nous établissons que certains types de modèles MEV peuvent être reformulés comme des modèles de choix discrets dynamiques, construits sur des réseaux de structure de corrélation. Ces modèles peuvent alors être estimées rapidement en utilisant des techniques de programmation dynamique en combinaison avec un algorithme efficace d'optimisation non-linéaire. La troisième et dernière thématique concerne les algorithmes d'optimisation non-linéaires dans le cadre de l'estimation de modèles complexes de choix discrets par maximum de vraisemblance. Nous examinons et adaptons des méthodes quasi-Newton structurées qui peuvent être facilement intégrées dans des algorithmes d'optimisation usuels (recherche linéaire et région de confiance) afin d'accélérer le processus d'estimation. Les modèles de choix discrets dynamiques et les méthodes d'optimisation proposés peuvent être employés dans diverses applications de choix discrets. Dans le domaine des sciences de données, des modèles qui peuvent traiter de grands ensembles de choix et des ensembles de choix séquentiels sont importants. Nos recherches peuvent dès lors être d'intérêt dans diverses applications d'analyse de la demande (analyse prédictive) ou peuvent être intégrées à des modèles d'optimisation (analyse prescriptive). De plus, nos études mettent en évidence le potentiel des techniques de programmation dynamique dans ce contexte, y compris pour des modèles statiques, ouvrant la voie à de multiples directions de recherche future.

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung eines effizienten parametrischen Schätzverfahrens für den Drift einer durch einen Lévy-Prozess getriebenen Sprungdiffusion. Zunächst werden zeit-stetige Beobachtungen angenommen und auf dieser Basis eine Likelihoodtheorie entwickelt. Dieser Schritt umfasst die Frage nach lokaler Äquivalenz der zu verschiedenen Parametern auf dem Pfadraum induzierten Maße. Wir diskutieren in dieser Arbeit Schätzer für Prozesse vom Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Typ, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Prozesse und Lösungen linearer stochastischer Differentialgleichungen mit Gedächtnis im Detail und zeigen starke Konsistenz, asymptotische Normalität und Effizienz im Sinne von Hájek und Le Cam für den Likelihood-Schätzer. In Sprungdiffusionsmodellen ist die Likelihood-Funktion eine Funktion des stetigen Martingalanteils des beobachteten Prozesses, der im Allgemeinen nicht direkt beobachtet werden kann. Wenn nun nur Beobachtungen an endlich vielen Zeitpunkten gegeben sind, so lässt sich der stetige Anteil der Sprungdiffusion nur approximativ bestimmen. Diese Approximation des stetigen Anteils ist ein zentrales Thema dieser Arbeit und es wird uns auf das Filtern von Sprüngen führen. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit untersucht die Schätzung der Drifts, wenn nur diskrete Beobachtungen gegeben sind. Dabei benutzen wir die Likelihood-Schätzer aus dem ersten Teil und approximieren den stetigen Martingalanteil durch einen sogenannten Sprungfilter. Wir untersuchen zuerst den Fall endlicher Aktivität und zeigen, dass die Driftschätzer im Hochfrequenzlimes die effiziente asymptotische Verteilung erreichen. Darauf aufbauend beweisen wir dann im Falle unendlicher Sprungaktivität asymptotische Effizienz für den Driftschätzer im Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Modell. Im letzten Teil werden die theoretischen Ergebnisse für die Schätzer auf endlichen Stichproben aus simulierten Daten geprüft und es zeigt sich, dass das Sprungfiltern zu einem deutlichen Effizienzgewinn führen. / The problem of parametric drift estimation for a a Lévy-driven jump diffusion process is considered in two different settings: time-continuous and high-frequency observations. The goal is to develop explicit maximum likelihood estimators for both observation schemes that are efficient in the Hájek-Le Cam sense. The likelihood function based on time-continuous observations can be derived explicitly for jump diffusion models and leads to explicit maximum likelihood estimators for several popular model classes. We consider Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, square-root and linear stochastic delay differential equations driven by Lévy processes in detail and prove strong consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency of the likelihood estimators in these models. The appearance of the continuous martingale part of the observed process under the dominating measure in the likelihood function leads to a jump filtering problem in this context, since the continuous part is usually not directly observable and can only be approximated and the high-frequency limit. In the second part of this thesis the problem of drift estimation for discretely observed processes is considered. The estimators are constructed from discretizations of the time-continuous maximum likelihood estimators from the first part, where the continuous martingale part is approximated via a thresholding technique. We are able to proof that even in the case of infinite activity jumps of the driving Lévy process the estimator is asymptotically normal and efficient under weak assumptions on the jump behavior. Finally, the finite sample behavior of the estimators is investigated on simulated data. We find that the maximum likelihood approach clearly outperforms the least squares estimator when jumps are present and that the efficiency gap between both techniques becomes even more severe with growing jump intensity.

En environnements hostiles, les signaux GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)peuvent être soumis à des risques de brouillages intentionnels. Basées sur un réseau d'antennes adaptatif, les solutions spatio-temporelles (STAP) ont déjà montré de bonnes performances de réjection des interférences. Toutefois, lorsque le module GNSS est placé sous les pales d'un hélicoptère, des effets non-stationnaires, appelés Rotor Blade Modulation (RBM), créés par les multiples réflexions du signal sur les pales du rotor, peuvent dégrader les techniques usuelles d’antibrouillage. Le signal utile GNSS n’est alors plus accessible. Le travail de la thèse consiste donc à élaborer un système de protection des signaux GNSS adapté à la RBM. Pour cela, un modèle innovant de multitrajets, adapté à ce type de phénomène, a été développé. La comparaison de simulations électromagnétiques représentatives et de mesures expérimentales sur hélicoptère EC-120 a permis de valider ce modèle. Celui-ci permet d'estimer, par maximum de vraisemblance, les paramètres de la contribution non-stationnaire du signal reçu. Enfin, l'association d'un algorithme de filtrage des multitrajets par projection oblique et d'un traitement STAP permet d'éliminer la contribution dynamique puis statique de l'interférence. Les simulations montrent que le signal utile GNSS est alors de nouveau exploitable. / In hostile environments, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can be disturbed by intentional jamming. Using antenna arrays, space-time adaptive algorithm (STAP) isone of the most efficient methods to deal with these threats. However, when a GNSS receiver is placed near rotating bodies, non-stationary effects called Rotor Blade Modulation (RBM) are created by the multipaths on the blades of the helicopter. They can degrade significantly the anti-jamming system and the signal of interest could belost. The work of the thesis is, consequently, to develop a GNSS protection system adapted to the RBM. In this way, an innovative multipath model, adapted to this phenomenon, has been developed. The model is then confirmed by comparison with a symptotic electromagnetic simulations and experiments conducted on an EC-120helicopter. Using a Maximum Likelihood algorithm, the parameters of the non-stationary part of the received signal have been estimated. And finally, the RBM anti-jamming solution, combining oblique projection algorithm and academic STAP, can mitigate dynamic and static contributions of interferences. In the end, the navigation information is available again.

En esta Tesis se aborda la estimación óptima de señales caóticas generadas por mapas unidimensionales y contaminadas por ruido aditivo blanco Gaussiano, desde el punto de vista de los dos marcos de inferencia estadística más extendidos: máxima verosimilitud (ML) y Bayesiano. Debido al elevado coste computacional de estos estimadores, se proponen asimismo diversos estimadores subóptimos, aunque computacionalmente eficientes, con un rendimiento similar al de los óptimos. Adicionalmente se analiza el problema de la estimación de los parámetros de un mapa caótico explotando la relación conocida entre muestras consecutivas de la secuencia caótica. Por último, se considera la aplicación de los estimadores anteriores al diseño de receptores para dos esquemas de comunicaciones caóticas diferentes: conmutación caótica y codificación simbólica o caótica. / This Thesis studies the optimal estimation of chaoticsignals generated iterating unidimensional maps and contaminated by additive white Gaussian noise, from the point of view of the two most common frameworks in statistical inference: maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian. Due to the high computational cost of optimum estimators, several suboptimal but computationally efficient estimators are proposed, which attain a similar performance as the optimum ones. Additionally, the estimation of the parameters of a chaotic map is analyzed, exploiting the known relation between consecutive samples of the chaotic sequence. Finally, we consider the application of the estimators developed in the design of receivers for two different schemes of chaotic communications: chaotic switching and symbolic or chaotic coding.