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La décision et les ensembles flous : contributions méthodologiques à la théorie des jeux et l'aide à la décision / The decision and the Fuzzy SetsMauranyapin, Jérémie 17 December 2018 (has links)
En sciences économiques, l'une des questions centrales concerne l'allocation des ressources rares et plus particulièrement leur répartition. La décision apparait ainsi au cœur des thématiques économiques, que ce soit en micro-économie ou en macro-économie. Dans un premier temps, nous revenons sur le fait que l’information, élément central de la prise de décision, est imparfaite. En utilisant la théorie des ensembles flous, qui a pour objet de capturer l’imprécision, nous construisons un nombre flou nommé nombre flou C-Shape qui permet de capter la sensibilité du preneur de décision. Nous étudions ensuite la théorie de la décision au travers de deux axes de recherche à savoir (1) la recherche opérationnelle couplée à la théorie des jeux et (2) l’aide à la décision. En premier lieu, Nous faisons une analogie entre la fonction distance et la fonction d’appartenance. Grâce à l’hypothèse de B-convexité et à la fonction C-Shape nous construisons des classes de jeux pour lesquels les joueurs peuvent être optimistes, pessimistes ou neutres, et pour lesquels l’existence d’équilibre de Nash est avérée. Enfin, concernant l’aide à la décision, nous utilisons la fonction C-Shape pour caractériser un nouveau type de critère nommé pseudo critère C-Shape qui permet de considérer les alternatives comme substituables. Ceci permet de prendre en compte, par exemple le contexte institutionnel dans lequel la prise de décision est prise. / Determining the allocation and the distribution of scarce resources is fundamental in economics. Thus, decision theory is the cornerstone of economic theory. In this thesis, we first provide a state of the art insisting on the fact that information, that is a central element of decision-making, is imperfect. Secondly, using fuzzy set theory, which aims to capture imprecision, we construct a fuzzy number, so-called C-Shape that captures the sensitivity of the decision-maker. Thirdly, we study decision theory through two key concepts of operation research: (1) game theory and (2) multi-criteria decision making. We provide an analogy between the gauge functions of convex sets and the membership functions arising in fuzzy set theory. Coupling a suitable notion of -convexity with the C-Shape function, we introduce a class of games for which the players can be optimistic, pessimistic or neutral. In addition the existence of Nash equilibrium is proved for such a class of games. Finally, concerning multi-criteria decision analysis, we use the C-Shape functions to characterize a new type of criteria called C-Shape pseudo-criterion, which makes possible to consider the alternatives as substitutable. This should be of interest to take into account, for example, the institutional context in which decision-making is taken.
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Mobile Activity Coordination through Integrating Physical and Simulated Software AgentsLin, Shyh-ming 13 August 2007 (has links)
As wireless communication services get more and more pervasively available, mobile people can easily interact with service providers and handily communicate with each other through mobile devices. In the mobile environment, mobile users can plan their activity schedules and run their schedules with the assistance of mobile devices. When mobile users are engaged in their activities, they can instantly perceive contextual information and their activity schedules therefore tend to be context dependent, i.e., mobile users may alter their objectives and decision makings as soon as the environmental context varies. Besides, for a mobile user, once any exception happens, he/she is apt to adapt his/her activity schedule to reduce the impact of the exception. In the mobile environment, since the environmental resources are limited and can¡¦t satisfy all mobile users¡¦ demands, conflicts are likely to occur while mobile users plan, alter or adapt their personal activity schedules. This study concentrates itself on resolving the conflicts. This conflict problem is formulated as a multi-criteria context-dependent DCOP (distributed constraint optimization problem). This problem is complicated and highly dynamic, and the joint optimality to this problem might be time-variant. This study proposes an integrated agents system SPA and a novel problem solving approach 2S-DORA to enable mobile users to coordinate their activities to maintain optimality. The SPA, which integrates the Simulated and Physical Agents, is employed to enhance mobile users¡¦ sensory, analytic, reasoning and social abilities. The 2S-DORA takes advantage of the SPA abilities to help mobile users quickly and effectively adapt themselves to the context variations and to the exceptions. This study takes a traveling backpacker problem as an example to demonstrate how the proposed SPA and 2S-DORA contribute to solve the multi-criteria context-dependent DCOP. Five experiments finally are designed to evaluate the performance of the application of SPA and 2S-DORA.
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Holistic Analysis of Fuel Cells for Residential ApplicationOspina Alvarado, Angelica Maria 06 November 2007 (has links)
The development of an index to compare different sources of energy is presented; the index address the appraisal of the source of energy from its sustainable performance and also using the factors that influence the user's decision making process of adopting an alternative energy. The index is used to compare the fuel cell system and the traditional grid system powered by coal fired power plants, for a typical residential unit located in the rural Appalachian region in Ohio.
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Evaluation Of Settlement Sites Beyond The Scope Of Natural Conditions And Hazards By Means Of Gis Based Mcda: Yesilirmak CatchmentCintimur, Mehmet Bilgekagan 01 June 2010 (has links) (PDF)
Our country is a risky position in terms of natural disasters. In the long run, preferentially settlement areas were selected to ensure maximum benefits in terms of both economic and security aspects, other criteria is not taken account when selection of sites.
The main purpose of this study is to examine and compare the properties of settlement location based on natural hazard and environmental constraints to be able to understand the interaction between the settlements and natural conditions at the regional scale of YeSilirmak Basin.
A MCDA was set up with 10 different data layers in two data domains (environmental and natural hazards domains), are evaluated. The results of the MCDA scores are then transferred to settlement databases in order to evaluate the number of existing settlements in different environmental and natural hazard related suitability classes.
It is found that almost 29% of YeSilirmak catchment is environmentally favorable for settlement, and in coherence with that 41% of all existing settlements are located in this zone, indicating a clear preference among the perception of environmentally better places to be settled in.
On the other hand with respect to the natural hazards dataset, the locations of the settlements fail to create any preference, as 73,32% of the area is used by 73,50% of existing settlements, which indicates that the perception of natural hazards are low and do not effect settlement criteria, while the acceptable risk of community is high.
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Comparison of high-speed rail systems for the United StatesZiemke, Dominik 30 August 2010 (has links)
After decades of standstill in intercity passenger rail in the United States, the Obama administration recently started major initiatives to implement high-speed ground transportation projects that are expected to improve the nation's transportation system significantly, addressing most prevailing issues like congestion and energy prices while having positive effects on the economy.
This study evaluates and compares two high-speed ground transportation systems that have the potential to improve intercity passenger transportation in the United States significantly: the wheel-on-rail high-speed system and the high-speed maglev system. Both high-speed ground transportation systems were evaluated with respect to 58 characteristics organized into 7 categories associated with technology, environmental impacts, economic considerations, user-friendliness, operations, political factors, and safety. Based on the performance of each system in each of the 58 characteristics, benefit values were assigned. In order to weight the relative importance of the different characteristics, a survey was conducted with transportation departments and transportation professionals. The survey produced weighting factors scoring each of the 58 characteristics and the 7 categories. Applying a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, the overall utility values for either system were calculated based on the benefit values from the systems comparison and the weighting factors from the survey.
It was shown that the high-speed maglev system is generally slightly superior over the wheel-on-rail high-speed system. Because the magnitude of the difference in the overall performance of both transportation systems is not very big, it is recommended that every project in the high-speed intercity passenger transportation market consider both HSGT systems equally.
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Energy analysis for sustainable mega-citiesPhdungsilp, Aumnad January 2006 (has links)
<p>ABSTRACT</p><p>Cities throughout Asia have experienced unprecedented economic development over the past decades. In many cases this has contributed to their rapid and uncontrolled growth, which has resulted in a multiplicity of problems, including rapid population increase, enhanced environmental pollution, collapsing traffic systems, dysfunctional waste management, and rapid increases in the consumption of energy, water and other resources. The significant energy use in cities is not very well perceived in Asian countries. Although a number of studies into energy consumption across various sectors have been conducted, most are from the national point of view. Energy demand analysis is not considered important at the level of the city. The thesis is focused on the dynamics of energy utilization in Asian mega-cities, and ultimately aims at providing strategies for maximizing the use of renewable energy in large urban systems.</p><p>The study aims at providing an in-depth understanding of the complex dynamics of energy utilization in urban mega-centers. An initial general analysis is complemented by a detailed study of the current situation and future outlook for the city of Bangkok, Thailand. An integrated approach applied to the study includes identification of the parameters that affect the utilization of energy in mega-cities and a detailed analysis of energy flows and their various subsystems, including commercial, industrial, residential and that of transportation. The study investigates and evaluates the energy models most commonly used for analyzing and simulating energy utilization. Its purpose is to provide a user-friendly tool suitable for decision-makers in developing an energy model for large cities. In addition, a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process has been developed to assess whether or not the energy systems meet the sustainability criteria.</p><p>A metabolic approach has been employed to analyze the energy flow and utilization in selected Asian mega-cities, including Bangkok, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tokyo. The approach is applied to measure the majority of indirect energy flows or the energy embodied in the flows of goods and services involving the residents of those cities. Since the function of cities is to serve the lives of the residents, indirect energy consumption could be regarded as being of equal importance as that of direct energy use. The essence of embodied energy is that an indirect reflection upon behavior following direct energy consumption. It can illustrate how a city relies on the outside, for example other cities, countries, etc. and provides some interesting information that cannot be easily drawn from the direct energy demand. The study reveals that the indirect energy demand is more significant than the direct energy demand in Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tokyo, while direct energy demand is greater than the indirect energy demand in Beijing. This can be explained by the fact that Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tokyo have a greater reliance upon the outside in terms of energy demand.</p><p>The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system has been selected to perform Bangkok energy modeling. In a Bangkok case study a range of policy interventions are selected and how these would change the energy development in Bangkok by the year 2025 is examined. Different policies can be grouped by the sectors analyzed. The only supply-side policy considered meets an existing target of having 10% of electricity generated from renewable sources. The study period for the model started in 2005 and ends in 2025, with the year 2000 taken as the base year. The proposed scenarios were evaluated using the MCDM approach to rate their sustainability. Team members found that this method provided a methodology to help decision-makers to systematically identify management objectives and priorities.</p>
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Gyvenmųjų teritorijų transporto sistemų plėtros daugiatikslis vertinimas darnos požiūriu / Multi-criteria assessment of urban areas transport systems development according to sustainabilityJakimavičius, Marius 19 January 2009 (has links)
Disertacijoje nagrinėjama gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistema darnos požiūriu. Pagal sukurtą susisiekimo sistemos analizei naudojamą rodiklių sis-temą, disertacijoje nagrinėjami sprendimų paramos sistemos metodai, tinkantys gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos analizes uždaviniams spręsti, tai pat analizuojamos šių metodų integracijos galimybės su geografinėmis informa-cinėmis sistemomis (GIS). Pagrindinis darbo tikslas – sudaryti teorinį modelį, kuris leistų daugiatiksliais sprendimų priėmimo metodais bei GIS technologi-jomis įvertinti gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos darną ir darniai planuoti gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos vystymąsi ateityje. Dis-ertacijoje siūlomas modelis suteikia galimybę atlikti skirtingų gyvenamųjų teri-torijų susisiekimo sistemų rangavimą, analizuoti įvairias gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos vystimosi alternatyvas, jas palyginti bei atrinkti geriausią. Modelis yra integruotas su GIS ir suteikia galimybė atlikti gyvenamųjų teritorijų plėtros tendencijų modeliavimą. / The main goal of the current PhD thesis is urban transport system analysis according sustainability. In dissertation have been analyzed urban areas transport system using integrated decision support system methods with GIS. These methods have been adopted for urban transport system analysis, urban territories ranking according transport system level. Also the indicators system for urban transport system analysis was filled with other important indicators groups for urban sustainability (environmental, socio economic). The aim of the paper cov-ers creation of theoretical model, which could evaluate urban transport system sustainability and perform rational planning of urban future development ac-cording decision support methods and GIS technologies. Also this model could allow executing urban transport system ranking by engineering infrastructure, socio economic and environment aspects. Model could perform comparing of urban development scenarios and to indicate the best one, which satisfies trans-port systems indicators.
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Tinkamiausios žemsiurbės ežerams valyti vertinimas, taikant daugiakriterinę analizę / The Evaluation Of The Most Suitable Dredger To Clean Lakes Based On Multiobjective AnalysisBučionis, Edvardas 03 June 2009 (has links)
Visų Lietuvoje esančių ežerų valymo darbai, sapropelio kuopimas atliekamas mechaniniu bei hidrauliniu būdais. Pastarasis sapropelio gavybos bei ežero išvalymo būdas paplitęs plačiausiai, nes gamybinės organizacijos dažniausiai naudoja technologiją, kai sapropelis pumpuojamas į specialiai tam paruoštus sėsdintuvus. Sapropelio gavyba bei ežero išvalymas atliekamas žemsiurbės pagalba. Tyrimų tikslas - parinkti geriausią žemsiurbę užpelkėjantiems ežerams valyti. Darbe pateikiama metodika, leidžianti tinkamiausią žemsiurbę išsirinkti pagal penkis kriterijus. Vertintos rusiškos, baltarusiškos, vakarietiškos taip pat anksčiau Lietuvoje naudotos žemsiurbės. Žemsiurbės vertintos daugiakriterinės analizės ELECTRE ir MAUT metodais. Daugiakriterinė analizė atlikta panaudojant programines įrangas HYPSE ir DAM. Už konsultacijas, rengiant, magistrantūros studijų baigiamąjį darbą reiškiu padėką: Doc. dr. A. Ciūniui, lekt. E. Laurinavičiui ir prof. habil. dr. L. Katkevičiui. / The cleaning works of all Lithuanian lakes, excavation of sapropel are carried out either by mechanical or hydraulic means. The latter is the common means of sapropel extraction and lake cleaning. Industrial organizations usually apply technologies so that sapropel is pumped to specially prepared sedimentation tanks. The cleaning of a lake and extraction of sapropel is carried out by the means of a dredger. The aim of the research is to choose the best dredger for the cleaning of swampy lakes. The work discusses methods which allow choosing the best dredger according to five criteria. Russian, Byelorussian, western dredgers and dredgers used in Lithuania earlier have been evaluated following the multi-criteria ELECTRE and MAUT methods. Multi-criteria analysis was carried out using HYPSE and DAM software.
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Urban congestion charging : road pricing as a traffic reduction measure / W. HeynsHeyns, Werner January 2005 (has links)
Urban traffic congestion is recognised as a major problem by most people in world cities. However, the
implementation of congestion reducing measures on a wide scale eludes most world cities suffering from
traffic congestion, as many oppose the notion of road pricing and despite economists and transportation
professionals having advocated its benefits for a number of decades. The effects of road pricing have
attracted considerable attention from researchers examining its effects, as it is thought to hold the key in
understanding and overcoming some inherent obstacles to implementation. Unfortunately, many of the
attempts consider the effects in isolation and with hypothetical, idealised and analytical tools, sometimes
loosing sight of the complexities of the problem.
This research empirically investigates the effects of road pricing in London, and identifies factors, which
may prove to sustain it as a traffic reduction instrument. The results indicate that an integrated approach
has to be developed and implemented, based upon the recognition of local perceptions, concerns,
aspirations and locally acceptable solutions, if the acceptance of road pricing is to be improved. The key
to dealing with the effects of road pricing, is to encourage a concerted effort by various stakeholders
developing strategies considering a range of differing initiatives, coordinating and managing them in the
realm of the political-economic context in which they exist. / Thesis (M.Art. et Scien. (Town and Regional Planning))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2005.
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Multi-criteria assessment of urban areas transport systems development according to sustainability / Gyvenmųjų teritorijų transporto sistemų plėtros daugiatikslis vertinimas darnos požiūriuJakimavičius, Marius 19 January 2009 (has links)
The main goal of the current PhD thesis is urban transport system analysis according sustainability. In dissertation have been analyzed urban areas transport system using integrated decision support system methods with GIS. These methods have been adopted for urban transport system analysis, urban territories ranking according transport system level. Also the indicators system for urban transport system analysis was filled with other important indicators groups for urban sustainability (environmental, socio economic). The aim of the paper cov-ers creation of theoretical model, which could evaluate urban transport system sustainability and perform rational planning of urban future development ac-cording decision support methods and GIS technologies. Also this model could allow executing urban transport system ranking by engineering infrastructure, socio economic and environment aspects. Model could perform comparing of urban development scenarios and to indicate the best one, which satisfies trans-port systems indicators. / Disertacijoje nagrinėjama gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistema darnos požiūriu. Pagal sukurtą susisiekimo sistemos analizei naudojamą rodiklių sis-temą, disertacijoje nagrinėjami sprendimų paramos sistemos metodai, tinkantys gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos analizes uždaviniams spręsti, tai pat analizuojamos šių metodų integracijos galimybės su geografinėmis informa-cinėmis sistemomis (GIS). Pagrindinis darbo tikslas – sudaryti teorinį modelį, kuris leistų daugiatiksliais sprendimų priėmimo metodais bei GIS technologi-jomis įvertinti gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos darną ir darniai planuoti gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos vystymąsi ateityje. Dis-ertacijoje siūlomas modelis suteikia galimybę atlikti skirtingų gyvenamųjų teri-torijų susisiekimo sistemų rangavimą, analizuoti įvairias gyvenamųjų teritorijų susisiekimo sistemos vystimosi alternatyvas, jas palyginti bei atrinkti geriausią. Modelis yra integruotas su GIS ir suteikia galimybė atlikti gyvenamųjų teritorijų plėtros tendencijų modeliavimą.
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