廣告量的文獻中，一派是以實驗設計為主的研究，多以廣告的展露 (exposure) 次數與時間，以及廣告版面尺寸等替代性指標做為衡量廣告量多寡的依據，並探討其對消費者心理變數的影響；另一派則是以經濟計量模型為主的研究，著重於探討廣告支出與其他行銷投入變數對銷售量或市場佔有率的影響。為了彌補以往廣告量文獻中的計量模型研究未能探討消費者心理變數的缺口，本研究以計量模式，加入消費者對品牌的態度做為中介變數，探討廣告支出對消費者的品牌態度與購買率的影響。 本研究採用資料庫資料針對廣告量對於消費者的品牌態度與購買率的影響進行分析，分別探討廣告量函數的形狀、廣告的階層效果、遞延效果、與競爭效果，並採用panel data分析法進行分析。研究樣本包括三大類的常購品與四大類的選購品，以及連鎖店的品牌。另外，連鎖店品牌的架構中，納入店數為自變數，因為店數愈多表示其在消費者展露的次數也愈多，類似廣告量的效果。 研究結果發現，不論在常購品、選購品、亦或是連鎖店品牌都顯示廣告量佔比的確對於消費者對該品牌的態度與購買率都有正向的影響。在廣告量佔比對購買率的函數形狀部份，常購品中的食品類與飲料類產品呈現向原點凹進的concave函數，而常購品中的家庭用品類、選購品，以及連鎖店品牌皆顯現出線性函數。 採用Baron and Kenny (1986) 三步驟，檢驗消費者對產品的品牌態度為廣告量佔比與購買率關係的中介變數，進而推論廣告的階層效果。結果顯示，食品類、飲料類、與電器機車類產品中，為呈現部份中介效果，而金融產品類的產品，如信用卡、保險、存款等金融服務，因與長期的金錢投入有關，消費者也較為謹慎，此時消費者對於品牌的評估較為完整與週延，呈現出完全中介效果。 另一方面，透過九年的資料分析並以Koyck model探討廣告量的遞延效果，從結果分析中無法得到前期的廣告量效果影響本期消費者的購買率，反而是前期的廣告效果透過影響消費者前期品牌態度或者是前期購買率，進而間接地影響本期的購買率，說明廣告的展露會隨著時間的經過，轉化成為公司的一項無形資產。 相對廣告量的效果與品牌知名度所帶來的競爭效果顯示，品牌之間相對的廣告投入對標的品牌的購買率有正向影響；而知名度高的品牌較不易受到知名度低品牌所進行的廣告活動所影響，唯獨在服飾配件類產品中，品牌知名度所產生的競爭力並無法在本研究中觀察到，可能與服飾的產品特性有關。 最後，依據分析結果建議行銷人員不應只注重廣告帶來的短期或當下的利益，對於廣告的長期與持續的投入，在日常生活中，逐漸改變消費者的態度，使得廣告在長期投資下，發揮其效果。因此，廠商若能規劃長期的廣告投入，便能夠在廣告持續效果消失之際，減緩消費者對廣告印象消退的速度。再者，新加入市場的品牌愈來愈多，再加傳統的大眾傳播媒體已部份被新興媒體所替代，這些現象已侵蝕了以往最有效率的電視廣告，稀釋了廣告的效果。然而，這些新興媒體的績效尚未有一明確的指標或工具予以衡量之，但其對廣告效果的衝擊不容小覷。企業在面臨前有競爭者不斷地進入市場，還得應付後起之新興媒體帶來的更多無法掌握性，建議行銷人員除了建立品牌的權益之外，更應該時時檢視自己與競爭者之間的相對地位，才能保有品牌的競爭力。 / Most experimental literature took advertising exposure time, frequency, and/or size to substitute real advertising amount, and analyzed how the effects of advertising amount on consumers’ psychological variables. But econometric literature focused on the effects of advertising outlay and other marketing mix variables on sales and/or market share. This study is inspired by these two streams of research and trying to mix them together, that is taking consumers’ brand attitude as mediator of the “ad-sales function”; moreover, explores how the advertising outlay affect consumes’ brand attitude and purchase rate. The current research aims to study the relationship between advertising expenditure and consumers’ attitude and purchase rate. In addition, the store number is included in the framework of chain store brands because the larger store number, the more ad exposure. To fulfill the research purposes, three datasets, Rainmaker XKM’s advertising outlay report, Eastern Integrated Consumer Profile (E-ICP), and Taiwan Chain Store Almanac are adopted. After matching these three databases, 76 frequent purchased brands, 81 selective purchase brands, and 21 chain store brands with 10-year period data are generated. Panel data analysis is selected since it can avoid the estimation bias from single cross-sectional or time-series analysis only. The results show that the higher ad share of voice (ad share), the better consumer’s brand attitude and higher purchase rate in all kinds of product categories. The shape of ad share-purchase rate function is concave in food and drink products, but linear in others. In addition, the shape of ad-attitude function is similar to ad share-purchase rate function. Brand attitude is considered a mediator of the relationship between ad shares and purchase rate base on advertising hierarchy models (e.g. AIDA model) that the advertising influences consumers’ attitudes prior to their behaviors. Baron and Kenny’s (1986) three steps of testing mediation effect is adopted to check the role of consumers’ brand attitude. The results reveal partial mediation effect in food, drink, and electronic product, full mediation effect in financial products, such as credit card, insurance, and saving account. The lagged effect of advertising on the consumers’ purchase rate makes the effect of advertising last from four to eight months, or even one year (Dekimpe and Hanssens, 1995; Winer, 1980). Koyck model shows better model fit than prior ad share direct effect model. Therefore, ad investment is transferred into a business reputation and affect consumers’ purchase rate in the long run. Advertising and brand awareness competition effect are also discussed in this research. The business with higher relative advertising outlay, the higher purchase rate it has. Moreover, the purchase rate of brand with higher awareness is not affect by the advertising of brand with lower awareness. But the clothing is an exception. Because the clothing brand has clear segmentation and position, the consumers loyal to certain brand. Thus, the consumers’ purchase rate of target brand might not be affected by the advertising of other competitive brands. Summary of above results, marketers should not only focus on short run advantages, but also long run advertising investment. Through day-to-day advertising exposure to change or transform consumers’ brand attitude. Therefore, the business could plan a long run advertising exposure schedule to lessen the speed of consumers’ advertising attenuation. Suggesting the marketers should build up their brand equity and identify the position among competitors to survive in the uncontrolled environment.

This thesis investigates the determinants of the use of debt and leasing in the UK using a comprehensive measure of debt and leases, in recognition of the link between lease and debt-type financing decisions, based on financial contracting theory and the tax advantage hypothesis. The design of the study takes account three lacunae in our current understanding of this topic. Firstly, despite the fact that the capital structure literature is voluminous, it is perhaps surprising that relatively little research has been carried out on lease finance, given its significant role as a major source of finance for many firms. Secondly, the role of tax in the capital structure decision is unclear. Empirically testing for tax effects is challenging because spurious relationships may exist between the financing decision and many commonly used tax proxies. More importantly, our understanding of the impact of taxes on UK financing decisions is far from complete, especially since several major corporate tax reforms have taken place in the last decade. Thirdly, empirical evidence on capital structure determinants is also voluminous but far from conclusive. Notably, contradictory signs and significance levels are commonly observed. Using the standard regression approach invariably involves identification of the average behaviour of firms, and therefore does not measure diversity across firms. In response to these three major issues, this study employs empirical research methods, namely cross-sectional pooled regression, static and dynamic panel data regression, and quantile regression to analyse a large sample of 361 non-financial firms, drawn from the FTSE 350 and FTSE All-Small indices over the tax years 1995 through 2003. The operating lease data are estimated using the constructive capitalisation method while the simulated before-financing marginal tax rate is used to proxy for the firms’ tax status. The endogeneity of corporate tax status is evident since the use of simple tax proxy, the effective tax rate, leads to a spurious negative relation between debt usage and tax rates. The problem was avoided with a better measure of tax variable that is the simulated before-financing marginal tax rate where it is found that the empirical relationships between the tax factor and debt and leasing are consistent with those theoretical predictions. Furthermore, there is a clear distinction between the effect of taxes on debt and leasing where the firm’s marginal tax status is only relevant when managers make decisions on debt financing. The use of quantile regression method in the present study represents a novel approach in investigating the determinants of the use of debt and leasing. The results reveal that the determinants of debt and leasing are heterogeneous across the whole distribution of firms, consistent with the notion of heterogeneity as promoted by Beattie et al. (2006), but contradicting their claim that the large-scale regression approach cannot measure firms’ diversity. This finding implies that average model results (e.g., from OLS or panel data models) may not apply to the tails of debt and leasing levels, and hence assuming that the determinants of debt and leasing decisions are the same for all firms in the economy is clearly unrealistic. Using the dynamic panel data model, this thesis confirms that debt and leasing are substitutes rather than complements, and that the degree of substitutability is more pronounced among smaller firms, where the degree of information asymmetry is greater. More importantly, the use of a joint specification for debt and leasing improves our understanding of the determinants of the two fixed-claim financing instruments. There is also significant evidence to support the view that firm characteristics affect contracting costs which in turn impact on the choice between alternative forms of finance, namely equity, debt and leasing.

Submitted by Afonso Yamaguchi (afonsomy@gmail.com) on 2014-08-31T19:40:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Afonso versao de entrega v6.2.pdf: 1877577 bytes, checksum: 1168740dfad490ae750f655794e79702 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-09-01T12:26:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Afonso versao de entrega v6.2.pdf: 1877577 bytes, checksum: 1168740dfad490ae750f655794e79702 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-01T12:41:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Afonso versao de entrega v6.2.pdf: 1877577 bytes, checksum: 1168740dfad490ae750f655794e79702 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-11 / O trabalho visa mensurar os efeitos das transferências intergovernamentais sobre as políticas públicas voltadas à educação fundamental. A hipótese que investigamos é a de que as transferências incondicionais aumentam a variabilidade das políticas públicas adotas, enquanto as transferências condicionais diminuem a variabilidade das políticas, já as transferências semi-condicionais afetam as políticas públicas de modo intermediário entre esses extremos. Com base nestes argumentos desenvolvemos estratégicas empíricas baseadas em métodos de regressão em painel, com uso de variáveis instrumentais e de designs descontínuos de regressão. / The study aims to measure the effects of intergovernmental transfers on public policies aimed at primary education. The hypothesis we investigate is that unconditional transfers increase the variability of the public policies, while conditional transfers reduce the variability of policies, since the semi-conditional transfers affecting public policy intermediate way between these extremes. Based on these arguments we develop strategic empirical methods based on panel regression, using instrumental variables and regression discontinuous designs.

Esta dissertação tem o propósito principal de fornecer evidências empíricas acerca dos fatores que influenciam as decisões dos gestores quanto ao prazo de divulgação das demonstrações contábeis anuais das companhias não financeiras listadas na BM&FBOVESPA. O prazo de divulgação, chamado defasagem, foi medido como o intervalo em dias entre o encerramento do exercício social e a data da primeira apresentação das Demonstrações Financeiras Padronizadas (DFPs). O foco da pesquisa foi a influência, sobre a defasagem, dos seguintes fatores não observáveis: monitoramento, complexidade contábil, governança corporativa, relatório de auditoria e performance. Com base na literatura revisada, foram formuladas proxies destinadas a captar os efeitos desses fatores. Para a consecução dos objetivos, foram estimados modelos econométricos por meio dos métodos: (i) Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO) com dados em corte transversal; (ii) MQO com dados agrupados (OLS pooled); e (iii) painel de dados. Os testes foram aplicados sobre um painel balanceado de dados, ou seja, 644 observações de 322 companhias, referentes aos exercícios 2010 e 2011. Os resultados das estimações revelaram que tendem a divulgar mais rapidamente suas demonstrações companhias: (i) com maior número de acionistas; (ii) com maior nível de endividamento; (iii) que aderiram a um entre os níveis diferenciados de governança corporativa da BM&FBOVESPA; (iv) que possuem maiores proporções de diretores independentes na composição da diretoria (board); e (v) que foram auditadas por uma entre as firmas de auditoria do grupo Big-4. Por outro lado, constatou-se que tendem a atrasar suas divulgações companhias que: (i) estão sujeitas à consolidação de balanços; (ii) tiveram suas demonstrações contábeis ressalvadas pelos auditores independentes; (iii) e que registraram resultados negativos (prejuízos). Adicionalmente, foram formuladas proxies para captar os efeitos das surpresas contidas nos resultados, uma delas tendo como base o benchmark para as expectativas do mercado, qual seja, a previsão dos analistas, no entanto, não foram constatados impactos das surpresas sobre o prazo de divulgação. Também não foram verificadas influências, sobre o timing, oriundas da proporção de investidores institucionais, da formação de blocos de controle, da regulação estatal, do nível de rentabilidade, do porte e tampouco da negociação de valores mobiliários em mercados estrangeiros. Os achados desta pesquisa podem contribuir não apenas para a literatura dedicada a essa linha de pesquisa, como também para investidores, analistas de mercado e reguladores. As nuances observadas para os exercícios analisados, que marcaram a adoção integral do padrão contábil alinhado às normas IFRS e a recuperação da economia brasileira em relação aos impactos da crise financeira mundial, permitiram relevantes constatações. Além disso, a relevância deste estudo é ampliada pelo ineditismo presente na aplicação de proxies ainda não utilizadas em ambiente nacional para explicar os prazos de divulgação.

A pesquisa conduzida nesta dissertação estudou a relação entre a flutuação de índices econômicos e o comportamento de indicadores econômico-financeiros das empresas de capital aberto do agronegócio brasileiro. Inserida num contexto de aumento da importância deste setor na economia do país, concomitante a um período de flutuações macro e microeconômicas negativas. Esta dissertação teve como objetivo geral analisar como aconteceram as relações entre a flutuação de variáveis relacionadas ao contexto econômico do país e do setor, com o comportamento dos indicadores econômico-financeiros de Liquidez, Administração do Capital de Giro e Estrutura Patrimonial das empresas do agronegócio listadas na Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão S.A. (B3 S.A.) no horizonte temporal entre 2010 e 2016. Compuseram as variáveis independentes deste estudo, índices macroeconômicos (Taxa de Juros (SELIC), inflação (IPCA), Taxa de Câmbio (dólar/real) e PIB), índices microeconômicos (Saldo da Balança Comercial e os PIB específicos do setor) e índices relativos à atividade do setor com o mercado externo. As variáveis dependentes (indicadores econômico-financeiros), foram derivadas dos demonstrativos extraídos de 33 empresas da Plataforma Economática. Para a comparação destes dois grupos de variáveis, operacionalizou-se a Análise de Regressão Múltipla pela técnica da Análise de Dados em Painel, levantando-se resultados de suporte, como a evidenciação de que o perfil de atuação das empresas do agronegócio abrange um raio maior do que o proposto nos segmentos agrícolas presentes na bolsa de valores. E constatando-se que mesmo com indicadores microeconômicos positivos (PIB do agronegócio, da agricultura e da pecuária), quando a economia do país está em declínio (2014, 2015 e 2016) o agronegócio tem demonstrado pelo comportamento de seus indicadores econômico-financeiros, ser um setor resistente as intempéries econômicas, em que a perenidade de um contexto macroeconômico desfavorável está associada a uma piora dos índices de atuação do setor no mercado externo. Identificado este perfil de atuação do setor, atuou-se investigando as relações propostas pela análise de 33 painéis balanceados. Como principais resultados, concluiu-se que a relação entre os indicadores de liquidez e os índices econômicos estão associados no curto prazo para as empresas que atuam em atividades de suporte à cadeia, e para o longo prazo a relação foi constatada para as empresas que atuam no agronegócio de modo direto. Para a Administração do Capital de Giro, foram constatados mais indicadores negativos em tempos onde a crise econômica se agravou, e isto piorou a estrutura de capital de giro quanto ao risco de mercado a que se expõe, principalmente para as empresas que atuam nas atividades de suporte. Para os Indicadores de Estrutura Patrimonial, identificou-se a falta de significância estatística entre as relações observadas, lastreada empiricamente pela boa saúde econômico-financeira do setor, evidenciado na gestão eficiente de captação e aplicação de recursos de longo prazo. As tendências gerais estabeleceram que mesmo altamente alavancado, o agronegócio brasileiro apresenta um endividamento de boa qualidade, evidenciando uma sobra de recursos de longo prazo que são aplicados em ativos de alta liquidez entre 2010 e 2016. / The research conducted in this dissertation studied the relationship between the fluctuation of economic indices and the behavior of economic and financial indicators of the Brazilian public agribusiness. Inserted in a context of increasing the importance of this sector in the economy of the country, concomitant with a period of macro and microeconomic fluctuations negative. The purpose of this dissertation was to analyze how the relationships between the fluctuation of variables related to the economic context of the country and the sector occurred, as well as the behavior of the economic and financial indicators of Liquidity, Working Capital Management and Equity Structure of listed agribusiness companies in Brazil, Bolsa, Balcão SA (B3 SA) in the time horizon between 2010 and 2016. The independent variables of this study were macroeconomic indices (SELIC), inflation (IPCA), exchange rate (dollar / real) and GDP), microeconomic indices (balance of trade balance and sector specific GDP) related to the activity of the sector with the foreign market. The dependent variables (economic and financial indicators) were derived from the statements extracted from 33 companies of the Economática Platform. For the comparison of these two groups of variables, the Multiple Regression Analysis was performed using the Panel Data Analysis technique, raising support results, such as the evidence that the agribusiness companies' performance profile encompasses a larger radius than that proposed in the agricultural segments present in the stock exchange. It is evident that even with positive microeconomic indicators (agribusiness, agriculture and livestock GDP), when the country's economy is declining (2014, 2015 and 2016), agribusiness has been shown by the behavior of its economic and financial indicators, be a sector resistant to economic inclement, where the continuity of an unfavorable macroeconomic context is associated with a worsening of the indices of the sector in the external market. Having identified this sector's performance profile, we investigated the relationships proposed by the analysis of 33 balanced panels. As main results, it was concluded that the relationship between liquidity indicators and economic indices are associated in the short term for companies that operate in chain support activities, and for the long term, the relation was verified for the companies that act in agribusiness directly. For the Working Capital Management, indicators that are more negative were observed in times when the economic crisis worsened, and this worsened the working capital structure in relation to the market risk to which it is exposed, especially for companies that operate in the activities of Support. For the Indicators of Asset Structure, the lack of statistical significance between the observed relationships was identified, empirically backed by the economic and financial health of the sector, evidenced in the efficient management of funding and application of long-term resources. The general trends established that even highly leveraged, Brazilian agribusiness presents good quality debt, evidencing a surplus of long-term resources that are applied in highly liquid assets between 2010 and 2016. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

Esta dissertação tem o propósito principal de fornecer evidências empíricas acerca dos fatores que influenciam as decisões dos gestores quanto ao prazo de divulgação das demonstrações contábeis anuais das companhias não financeiras listadas na BM&FBOVESPA. O prazo de divulgação, chamado defasagem, foi medido como o intervalo em dias entre o encerramento do exercício social e a data da primeira apresentação das Demonstrações Financeiras Padronizadas (DFPs). O foco da pesquisa foi a influência, sobre a defasagem, dos seguintes fatores não observáveis: monitoramento, complexidade contábil, governança corporativa, relatório de auditoria e performance. Com base na literatura revisada, foram formuladas proxies destinadas a captar os efeitos desses fatores. Para a consecução dos objetivos, foram estimados modelos econométricos por meio dos métodos: (i) Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO) com dados em corte transversal; (ii) MQO com dados agrupados (OLS pooled); e (iii) painel de dados. Os testes foram aplicados sobre um painel balanceado de dados, ou seja, 644 observações de 322 companhias, referentes aos exercícios 2010 e 2011. Os resultados das estimações revelaram que tendem a divulgar mais rapidamente suas demonstrações companhias: (i) com maior número de acionistas; (ii) com maior nível de endividamento; (iii) que aderiram a um entre os níveis diferenciados de governança corporativa da BM&FBOVESPA; (iv) que possuem maiores proporções de diretores independentes na composição da diretoria (board); e (v) que foram auditadas por uma entre as firmas de auditoria do grupo Big-4. Por outro lado, constatou-se que tendem a atrasar suas divulgações companhias que: (i) estão sujeitas à consolidação de balanços; (ii) tiveram suas demonstrações contábeis ressalvadas pelos auditores independentes; (iii) e que registraram resultados negativos (prejuízos). Adicionalmente, foram formuladas proxies para captar os efeitos das surpresas contidas nos resultados, uma delas tendo como base o benchmark para as expectativas do mercado, qual seja, a previsão dos analistas, no entanto, não foram constatados impactos das surpresas sobre o prazo de divulgação. Também não foram verificadas influências, sobre o timing, oriundas da proporção de investidores institucionais, da formação de blocos de controle, da regulação estatal, do nível de rentabilidade, do porte e tampouco da negociação de valores mobiliários em mercados estrangeiros. Os achados desta pesquisa podem contribuir não apenas para a literatura dedicada a essa linha de pesquisa, como também para investidores, analistas de mercado e reguladores. As nuances observadas para os exercícios analisados, que marcaram a adoção integral do padrão contábil alinhado às normas IFRS e a recuperação da economia brasileira em relação aos impactos da crise financeira mundial, permitiram relevantes constatações. Além disso, a relevância deste estudo é ampliada pelo ineditismo presente na aplicação de proxies ainda não utilizadas em ambiente nacional para explicar os prazos de divulgação.

Cette thèse analyse les conséquences et les implications des annonces de dividendes sur le marché boursier français dans un contexte de crise financière. Elle comporte quatre chapitres dont un premier, théorique qui trace les orientations des trois études empiriques réalisées. À l’issue de ce chapitre, il est proposé un cadre d’analyse de l’impact de la crise sur la politique de dividendes. Le deuxième chapitre traite de l’impact de la crise sur les réactions du marché. Il a testé et validé l’hypothèse d’une réaction différenciée des investisseurs aux annonces de dividendes en fonction du contexte économique. De surcroît, il met en évidence des réactions asymétriques des investisseurs en période de crise. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle explication à ces réactions asymétriques à travers la théorie de l’ambiguïté. L’hypothèse selon laquelle la nature et le degré d’incertitude de l’environnement macroéconomique auraient un impact sur la manière dont les investisseurs réagissent suite aux annonces de dividendes a été testée et validée. Le quatrième chapitre analyse la prévision des bénéfices comptables par les dividendes en période de crise, au regard de la théorie du signal. Nos résultats valident globalement les théories du signal et de l’ambiguïté. Même si la crise a affecté les réactions du marché français, elle n’a pas eu d’impact sur la relation significative qui existe entre les changements de dividendes et les variations de bénéfices futurs. Cette thèse analyse les conséquences et les implications des annonces de dividendes sur le marché boursier français dans un contexte de crise financière. Elle comporte quatre chapitres dont un premier, théorique qui trace les orientations des trois études empiriques réalisées. À l’issue de ce chapitre, il est proposé un cadre d’analyse de l’impact de la crise sur la politique de dividendes. Le deuxième chapitre traite de l’impact de la crise sur les réactions du marché. Il a testé et validé l’hypothèse d’une réaction différenciée des investisseurs aux annonces de dividendes en fonction du contexte économique. De surcroît, il met en évidence des réactions asymétriques des investisseurs en période de crise. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle explication à ces réactions asymétriques à travers la théorie de l’ambiguïté. L’hypothèse selon laquelle la nature et le degré d’incertitude de l’environnement macroéconomique auraient un impact sur la manière dont les investisseurs réagissent suite aux annonces de dividendes a été testée et validée. Le quatrième chapitre analyse la prévision des bénéfices comptables par les dividendes en période de crise, au regard de la théorie du signal. Nos résultats valident globalement les théories du signal et de l’ambiguïté. Même si la crise a affecté les réactions du marché français, elle n’a pas eu d’impact sur la relation significative qui existe entre les changements de dividendes et les variations de bénéfices futurs. / This dissertation investigates the consequences and implications of dividend announcements on French stock market in a context of financial crisis. It consists of four chapters including a first theoretical chapter that draws directions of the three empirical studies we realised. After this chapter, we provide an analysis framework of the impact of the crisis on the dividend policy. The second chapter discusses the impact of the financial crisis on french market reactions following dividend announcements. It tested and validated the hypothesis of a differentiated reaction of investors to dividend announcements based on the economic environment. Furthermore, it highlights asymmetric reactions of investors in times of crisis. The third chapter provides a new explanation for these asymmetric reactions through the ambiguity theory. The hypothesis according to which the nature and the degree of uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment has an impact on the way in which capital market prices react to dividend announcements was tested and validated. The fourth chapter analyses earnings forecast by dividends in times of crisis, according to the signaling theory. Our findings generally support the signaling and ambiguity theories. But, although the crisis affected the French market reactions to dividend announcements, it has no impact on the significant relationship between dividends changes and future earnings variations.

<div> <p>First Essay: We study the effect of entry of ethanol plants on the spatial pattern of corn prices. We use pre- and post-entry data from corn elevators to implement a clean identification strategy that allows us to quantify how price effects vary with the size of the entrant (relative to local corn production) and with distance from the elevator to the entrant. We estimate Difference-In-Difference (DID) and DID-matching models with linear and non-linear distance specifications. We find that the average-sized entrant causes an increase in corn price that ranges from 10 to 15 cents per bushel at the plant’s location, depending on the model specification. We also find that, on average, the price effect dissipates 60 miles away from the plant. Our results indicate that the magnitude of the price effect as well as its spatial pattern vary substantially with the size of the entrant relative to local corn supply. Under our preferred model, the largest entrant in our sample causes an estimated price increase of 15 cents per bushel at the plant’s site and the price effect propagates over 100 miles away. In contrast, the smallest entrant causes a price increase of only 2 cents per bushel at the plant’s site and the price effect dissipates within 15 miles of the plant. Our results are qualitatively robust to the pre-treatment matching strategy, to whether spatial effects are assumed to be linear or nonlinear, and to placebo tests that falsify alternative explanations.</p><p><br></p></div> <p>Second Essay: We estimate the cost of transporting corn and the resulting degree of spatial differentiation among downstream firms that buy corn from upstream farmers and examine whether such differentiation softens competition enabling buyers to exert market power (defined as the ability to pay a price for corn that is below its marginal value product net of processing cost). We estimate a structural model of spatial competition using corn procurement data from the US state of Indiana from 2004 to 2014. We adopt a strategy that allows us to estimate firm-level structural parameters while using aggregate data. Our results return a transportation cost of 0.12 cents per bushel per mile (3% of the corn price under average conditions), which provides evidence of spatial differentiation among buyers. The estimated average markdown is $0.80 per bushel (16% of the average corn price in the sample), of which $0.34 is explained by spatial differentiation and the rest by the fact that firms operated under binding capacity constraints. We also find that corn prices paid to farmers at the mill gate are independent of distance between the plant and the farm, providing evidence that firms do not engage in spatial price discrimination. Finally, we evaluate the effect of hypothetical mergers on input markets and farm surplus. A merger between nearby ethanol producers eases competition, increases markdowns by 20%, and triggers a sizable reduction in farm surplus. In contrast, a merger between distant buyers has little effect on competition and markdowns.</p><p><br></p> Third Essay: We study the dynamic response of local corn prices to entry of ethanol plants. We use spatially explicit panel data on elevator-level corn prices and ethanol plant entry and capacity to estimate an autoregressive distributed lag model with instrumental variables. We find that the average-sized entrant has no impact on local corn prices the year of entry. However, the price subsequently rises and stabilizes after two years at a level that is about 10 cents per bushel higher than the pre-entry level. This price effect dissipates as the distance between elevators and plants increase. Our results imply that long-run (2 years) supply elasticity is smaller than short-run (year of entry) supply elasticity. This may be due to rotation benefits that induce farmers to revert back to soybeans, after switching to corn due to price signals the year the plant enters. Furthermore, our results, in combination with findings in essay 2 of this dissertation, indicate that ethanol plants are likely to use pricing strategies consistent with a static rather than dynamic oligopsony competition.

Sustainability is a broad concept where sustainability factors have become more fundamental during the recent years. However, the importance of these factors has not been as central when explaining stock returns. Thus, we perform this study with the aim to investigate the relationship between sustainability factors and financial performance. Specifically, by investigating the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) variables and risk premiums. This is evaluated during the period 2014 to 2021, based on stocks included in the MSCI ACWI index. The explanatory variables are used as different levels of sustainability factors, where they reach from ESG scores at the top, down to raw data points at the bottom. To investigate this relation, Panel regression is used, which is a common method when analyzing data including both time series and cross-sectional data. Further, we evaluate if the dependencies vary across sectors, different market performance periods, time periods, and geographical regions. The results obtained show a clear general trend, that sustainability factors have had a positive impact on financial performance. However, this result diverges depending on sectors, time periods, regions, and market performance. Further, we see an increasingly positive effect from sustainability factors over time, and differences arise when analyzing individual sectors. To sum up, from results, we can not conclude that highly ranked companies, in the shape of ESG scores, have yielded higher risk premiums over the observed period.  Based on that the relation has diverged during different time periods, which implies that further outcomes become more unreliable. The relationship between sustainability factors and financial performance is not the same in all sectors, which opposes the general result. We recommend that investors should be aware when investing sustainably because sectors and time periods have a great impact on potential outcomes. / Hållbarhet är ett väldigt brett begrepp, där flertalet hållbarhetsfaktorer under senaste åren har fått en större betydelse inom finans. Hållbarhetsfaktorer är dock oftast inte lika centralt när det kommer till att förklara avkastning. Därför genomförs denna studie för att undersöka relationen mellan hållbarhetfaktorer och finansiell prestationsförmåga, mer specifikt genom att undersöka sambandet mellan ESG variabler och riskpremier, vilket undersöks under perioden 2014 till 2021 på företag som är inkluderade i MSCI ACWI index. Som förklarande variabler används olika nivåer av hållbarhetsfaktorer, där skalan sträcker sig från sammanvägda poäng högst upp till rådatapunkter längst ner. För att undersöka denna relation används Panel regression, vilket är vanligt förekommande i studier som undersöker data som innehåller både tidsserier samt tvärsektioner, vilket även kallas för Panel data. Vidare undersöker även studien ifall detta samband varierar beroende på sektorer, geografiska regioner, tidsperioder och olika marknadsfaser. De erhållna resultaten visar en tydlig generell linje, att hållbarhetsfaktorer har haft en positiv påverkan på finansiell prestanda. Dock uppstår divergenser beroende på vilken tidsperiod, region och marknadsprestanda och sektor som analyseras. Resultatet påvisar att den positiva effekten från hållbarhetsfaktorer ökar över tiden, samt att den uppstår tydliga skillnader beroende på vilken sektor som analyseras. Slutligen, från resultatet, kan vi inte dra slutsatsen att högt rankade företag, i form av ESG scores, har generellt generat högre riskpremier under den observerade tidsperioden. Detta baserat på att hållbarhetsfaktorers påverkan har divergerat över den observerade tidsperioden, vilket betyder att framtida utfall blir mer oberäkneliga. Samtidigt är relationen mellan hållbarhetsfaktorer och finansiell prestanda inte den samma över sektorer, vilket går emot det generella resultatet. Vi rekommenderar därför investerare att vara varsamma vid investeringar baserade på hållbarhetsfaktorer, där sektorer och tidsperioder har centrala roller i potentiella utfall.

The informal sector has emerged as an important sector in Africa where many countries are striving to attain Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 8 on decent work and economic growth. The presence of a growing number of individuals and firms in the informal sector in Africa and the need to attain SDG 8 through formalisation have reignited the debate on informality and its possible causes and effects on the growth trajectory of African economies. Empirical questions on the determinants of informality are still not adequately answered. One question which continues to generate a lot of debate and contrasting results is the relationship between the informal sector and corruption. Both informality and corruption have emerged as ‘twin challenges’ in Africa, with a far reaching impact on economic development. The relationship between the informal sector and corruption has been an inconclusive and a polemical issue in both academic and developmental discourse. From a theoretical perspective, the two can be substitutes or complements, but the exact nature of the relationship is not clear. The main objective of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship between the informal sector, corruption and economic development in Africa, over the period 2005 to 2015. The objective of the study was answered through two ways: theoretical and empirical methodology. In the theoretical methodology, a classical approach was applied. The classical theory suggests that in the presence of a market for corruption, corruption control can reduce the size of the informal sector through reducing the supply of corruption, thereby raising the price of corruption. The negative relationship between corruption control and the size of the informal sector is supported by the described empirical data for Africa. The results from descriptive statistics, in particular the scatter plots, demonstrate that control of corruption, government effectiveness and economic development as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI) are negatively associated with the size of the informal sector. The negative association between the control of corruption and the size of the informal sector entails that corruption increases the size of the informal sector. With regards to the empirical solution, the total population of 54 African countries was considered for the study. However, a panel of 46 countries was analyzed as the other eight countries, although considered together with the rest, were scientifically isolated from the panel due to data challenges. Robustness checks were carried out to check if estimates are not sensitive to sample size or region. Further, for purposes of this study, the sample was also divided into Southern and Eastern Africa, and Northern and Western Africa. Panel data was applied in order to account for both time and country-specific heterogeneity. The use of panel data allows one to study variability through comparability of the level of informality in countries such as Zimbabwe where the economy has remained largely informalised. Four panel estimators, namely, the Pooled Effects, Fixed Effects or Within Effects, Random Effects or GLS, and Dynamic Panel Model (Arrelano-Bond), were applied. Model specification tests identified the Fixed Effect Model as the most appropriate model. Hence, the discussed results are largely from the Fixed Effects Model. On measurement of informality, the study relied on the shadow economy estimates constructed by Medina and Schneider (2018) for 158 countries from 1991 to 2015. On corruption, the study used the Control of Corruption Index (COCO) published by the World Bank, in the Governance Index Report. Unlike previous studies which used GDP per capita only as a proxy for economic development, this study went a step further and used Human Development Index (𝐻𝐷𝐼) as a proxy for economic development. Profit tax as a percentage of GDP was also tested as a potential determinant of informality. The endogeneity of the corruption variable was corrected using an instrumental variable. The findings show that an improvement in the control of corruption or government effectiveness reduces the level of informality in Africa while, an increasing informal sector is a breeding ground for corruption. The two variables are complements or jointly determined. Countries with large underground economies possess high levels of corruption, and countries with high levels of corruption are associated with large underground economies. The complementarity of corruption and the size of underground economy implies that policies that target one of the two will also help in tackling the other. In addition, the results show that economic development reduces the magnitude of informality, while a larger informal sector today implies a bigger informal sector in the future. One of the findings of this study is that previous studies which applied GDP per capita as a measure of economic development largely underestimated the impact of economic development on the size of the informal sector. The findings of the study show that the negative association between the control of corruption and the size of the informal sector holds for both the Northern and Southern regions of Africa. The impact is however bigger in the Northern Region, as a marginal improvement in corruption control has a bigger impact in reducing the size of the informal sector compared to the Southern Region. The results from the study also show that the level of informality in a country has a memory. A bigger informal sector today is likely to propel the level of the informal sector in the future. The findings show that a growth of the informal sector by one percentage point today will increase the informal sector by about 0.185 percentage points in the following year. The results from time dummies also indicate that the size of the informal sector in Africa started to grow significantly during the financial crisis period in 2009. The main implication of these findings is that African countries can target one of the two in order to reduce both the size of the underground economy and corruption. The other implication is that a policy that targets curing one of the problems will have positive external effects in curing the other unintended problem. Furthermore, the findings imply that African countries with large underground economies may continue to experience growing informal economies due to lack of regulatory capacity and weak enforcement. Solving the two problems is a double hurdle for African countries. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)