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Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 1987. / Thesis Advisor(s): Boger, Dan C. Second Reader: Andrus, Alvin F. "September 1987." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 23, 2010. DTIC Descriptor(s): Army Budgets, Decision Making, Goal Programming, Antimissile Defense Systems, Army Operations, Coefficients, Computer Programs, Hierarchies, Linearity, Management, Military Strategy, Mathematical Models, Operations Research, Personnel, Sensitivity, Theses, Army Research. DTIC Identifier(s): Army strategic defense command, Analytic hierarchy process. Author(s) subject terms: Goal Programming " Analytic Hierarchy Process, R&D Project Funding Models. Includes bibliographical references (p. 165-167). Also available in print.

Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (fuzzy AHP) is a helpful MCDM approach for the selection of public financing of cooperative R&D projects developed by firms in collaboration with government. A technical committee for Industrial Technology Development Program (ITDP) in Taiwan regularly evaluates and decides proper public financing of cooperative R&D projects. In this study, we first discuss important criteria for R&D projects selection. We apply fuzzy AHP to integrating decisions of members in the technical committee. Especially we utilize crisp judgment matrix instead of interval judgment matrix to integrate subject judgments of these members. Our results indicate that scientific & technology merit criterion (0.389) is most important considered in overall technical committees. Besides that, the project execution (0.260) is more important criteria than potential benefits (0.204) and project risk (0.147) in ITDP selection. Moreover, we utilize the simulation to analyze relative important of criteria under risky environment. Our results also indicate that the relative important of criteria will reverse when technical committee faces different risk level. Generally speaking, the paper reveals below results: (1) the fuzzy AHP is an appropriate method in multi-criteria R&D projects selection; (2) the crisp judgment matrix is suitable to integrate subject judgments of technical committee; (3) the relative important of criteria will reverse under different risky environment.

Bad or failing projects drain organisational resources in vain, affect team morale,and are a detriment to corporate strategy. Theimportance of terminating a project that will not deliver as promised canhardly be overemphasized, however it is still a major managerial challenge. Throughout this papera call is made toidentify andterminate failing projectsvia a benefit realisation management process, as successful projectsare only those thatdeliver the expected benefits. Thus, the research question to answer is:How can benefit realisation management aid in deciding when to terminate a project?The purpose of this study is to understand project termination and its relationship with benefits realisation management in the case of IT and R&D projects. This is done by tacking a critical realist view in an abductive process that goes back and forth between the merge of existing theories and data collected, which will result in a conceptual model that integrates project termination decision making into a benefit realisation management process. In this research project termination is defined as: the cancellation and cessation of a project prior the completion of its intended activities; while benefit realisation management is conceived as: a set of processes that ensure projects, programmes, and portfolios delivervalue via verifying they are realising their intended goals and benefits.From the literature, the projects analysed and the model drawn, it was understood that benefit realisation management has to be conceived as a monitoring and evaluation process on the project performance in relation to its intended benefit. The howto do so, is our model: a total of 8 steps that go from the conception of the business strategy to the post mortem evaluation of a project. Each step includes different essential activities that hypothetically lead to the correct decision. This, requires active participation and communication from the primary stakeholders, focus on the organisational strategy and the reason why the project was started in addition to a well-defined goal with a clear way of measurement. The when is approached as the moment in time where the termination decision making process should start. A stimulus, a difference between the expected standard and the project performance trend, is what triggers the recognition that a termination decision might be needed and therefore starts the whole decision-making process. Hence, it is recommended to pay special attention to three moments in the project life that might give a clearer indication: 1) the completion and approval of the business-case, as most errors can already be spotted at this point, 2) the testing phase of the solution, being often the point where success is easier to predict and 3) on the submission of the deliverables, as their quality reflect the quality of the future product.

由於資訊科技的發達，使全球資訊的分享加速，一方面使得企業創新的刺激源源不絕，另一方面也使得消費者的需求慾望越來越廣，造成產品生命週期不斷縮短，在現今的環境下，企業若要長久經營甚至維持成長，就必需積極從事創新之新產品開發。雖說新產品或技術的創新對企業的貢獻相當大，但研發專案往往存在高度不確定性且耗時耗力，一旦專案失敗，亦會對企業造成相當程度的傷害，導致許多企業望之卻步。因此，1960年代初期，Mansfield(1968)等學者開始從事研發支出費用與產業或公司生產力相關性的研究。其後，由於財報資料取得的方便性與客觀性，加上個別研發專案的效益較難追蹤、亦難以評估，大多數研發投入與研發績效相關的研究，首先，在變數上都是以財報上的財務數字為基礎，如研發費用、研發密度、公司獲利、營收等；其次，在研究個體上則是以企業整體為主。然而，過去許多研發投入與績效相關之研究，不論在投入面或效益面皆提出了許多非財務性的項目，此外，在現今即將邁入第四代研發管理的環境下，組織企業的研究發展工作多以「專案」的方式來進行，而非以年度企業整體預算進行管理。綜合上述兩點過去此類研究與實務上之落差，本研究採用經濟部工業局「主導性新產品開發計劃」之計劃成效追蹤問卷資料，以個別研發專案為研究對象，並將投入面擴大區分為成本、人力、時間三個構面，探討研發專案投入對非財務面之技術產出及財務績效之影響，期能彌補過去此類研究與實務上之落差。 本研究依照研發專案投入所產生之非財務與財務績效構面，分成兩大研究主題，研究結果顯示： 一、研發專案投入對技術產出之影響：專案投資金額對專利權與創新技術數有顯著正向的影響，專案研發人員之教育程度只對創新技術數有顯著正向之影響，研發時間與專案技術產出皆無顯著相關。 二、研發專案投入對財務產出之影響及其遞延效果：專案投資金額與專案研發人員之教育程度對開發產品銷售額具有顯著之正向影響，且從產品銷售第一年起，沒有時間上的落差，且專案投資金額之影響可延續三年，專案研發人員之教育程度之影響可延續兩年，研發時間與開發產品銷售額無顯著相關。 此外，吾人並針對實證結果與實務界人士進行訪談，瞭解與假說不符者之原因，結果發現：專案研發時間較長，不完全是因為企業願意投入較多的心力，有很大的可能是研發瓶頸的發生與研發人員的不效率，這些部份不但對專案產出沒有顯著貢獻，還可能危害專案的成功。 / As a result of the progression of information technology, the speed of information sharing is getting higher and higher. On one hand it makes companies get the stimulation of innovation more easily than before, on the other it also makes the desire of customers becomes wider and wider. Thus, the life cycles of all products in the world then become shorter and shorter. In this environment, companies who want to survive or even get growth have to do their development and research activities more aggressively than before. Although the benefits of R&D is great, lots of companies still shrink back at the sight. That’s because of the high uncertainty of R&D and the needs of huge amount of time and money, and companies always get incredible harm once they fail. Therefore, many researchers have tried to clarify the relationship between R&D inputs and R&D performance. Due to the accessibility and objectivity of financial report, the past researches in this field always used the information from financial reports, and set their research objects as the whole companies. But many researchers have pointed out that there are not only financial inputs and outputs of R&D activities but also non-financial ones. In the global trend to 4th generation of R&D management, R&D organizations have changed their management way form total budgeting to project management. To eliminate these two gaps between theory and practice, in this research we use the questionnaire data of Leading Product Development Programs from Industrial Development Bureau Ministry of Economic Affairs to make our research stand on a project view point and get other non-financial inputs and outputs data that we can’t get from financial reports. Hope we can earn more practical results to help companies making their decisions of R&D activities. According to the two perspectives of R&D project performances, non-financial and financial, we separated this research into two subjects, the results showed that: 1. The effects of R&D project inputs on technical outputs: we found that the project dollar investment has significant effect on the number of patents and innovative techniques, and the education degree of the project’s R&D engineers only has significant effect on innovative techniques but on patents. On the other hand, R&D time of the project has no significant effect on both patents and innovative techniques. 2. The effects of R&D project inputs on financial performance, their time-lag effect and their continuity: we found that project dollar investment has significant effect on sales of the product that developed from the project since the first year it was sold, which means the time-lag doesn’t exist in this situation, and this effect can last for three years or even more. The education degree of the project’s R&D engineers has significant effect on sales of the product that developed from the project, from the first year it was sold. So, there is no time-lag, but this effect can only last two years. Besides, R&D time of the project has no significant effect on any year’s sales of the product that developed from the project. Finally, we have interviewed some practitioners discussing about our results that were not consistent with our hypotheses. According to their opinions, the reason why some projects spend longer R&D time is not just because those companies intend to pay more effort on those projects. It also includes the inefficiency of R&D engineer and the bottleneck of that project. These inefficiency and bottlenecks are not only non-value-added but also sometimes harmful to a R&D project. That’s why we found in this research that there is no significant relationship between R&D time of a project and its performances, neither financial performances nor non-financial ones.

本文的研究主題為利用實質選擇權的觀念，來協助手機ODM廠商計算並評估各種專案的投資效益，或採取適當的方法提高投資效益。 實質選擇權很適合用來分析具有高度不確定性的計畫的投資價值。一般的廠商自行做研發，是新產品研發的實質選擇權買方。但ODM廠商是幫客戶做研發，產品開發專案的決定權通常在客戶手上，ODM廠商變成新產品研發的實質選擇權賣方。所以要計算ODM廠商的研發專案的投資效益，會和傳統的方法不太一樣。 本文設計出一種分析方式，將ODM廠商提供的”設計與製造的整合服務”中間隱含新產品研發的選擇權賣權的成本估計出來。這些成本，會導致整個ODM的研發計畫的投資價值下降，尤其當產品風險高的時候更嚴重。研究結果發現風險愈高的產品越不適宜由ODM廠商來開發。風險較低的成熟產品則非常適合交給ODM廠商來開發。 另外本文利用這種分析方法，比較各種型式的手機專案的預期投資價值與機會成本，以提供管理者在比較與選擇不同專案時參考。也利用這種方法來分析手機ODM廠針對智慧型手機研發上的各種策略對投資價值的影響，以提供管理者在排定策略優先次序時參考。 / The Real Options approach has recently been growing in popularity in the valuation of R&D projects. It can help to evaluate the chances and risks of R&D investment by reflecting the values of of timing and operational flexibility. In most cases, these investments can be treated as “buying Real R&D Options”. However, the R&D projects of ODM (original design manufactor) companies are quite different. They “sell Real R&D Options” to their Brand-Name customers. To sell Options will increase the risks, so it’s definitely not free. This research utilizes the Real Options concept to evaluate the cost of these Real Options sold by Mobile Phone ODM companies to their customers. With this information, ODM companies can have a reasonable finaicial analysis before they sign the contacts based on market risks and opportunities. Futhermore, in this study we design a method to compare different types of projects based on the Real Options analysis. Companies can prioritize projects based on the results of the analysis. We also propose several approachs to increase the value of these R&D investments by reducing the cost of the Real R&D Options they sold.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:50:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseLCS.pdf: 2067913 bytes, checksum: fe03f2f8092b1ff62a76fa171f4216c2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-08-11 / Studies comparing two technological institutes in Mercosul -The Industrial Technologic Institute, in Argentina, and the Technological Research Institute, in Brazil - focus on management projects in research and Development, in institutional level. Through the literature, it is identify, areas and subjects that allow the analyses of institutional management R&D projects (IMRDP). The history of the two institutes was study to identify the similarity and the differences of them. The field research is composed by an interview which was framed through literature subjects and documents in the following topics: general vision and IMRDP operations in the institutes; institutional management; process effectives results; people´s communication involved with projects and the institution; experiences acquired in the institutions. Of all interviews, one quarter was directed to high management, one quarter to functional gerency and two quarter to project managers. The discussion results, thanks to the methodology and schedule, determined that institutions did not have IMRDP, although both institutions considered the importance of its implementation. It was clear that the IMRDP structure, in any institution, have to consider the institutional culture, history, staff, structure and market, even though there are similar subjects and areas between the two institutions. / Estudo de casos comparativo de dois institutos tecnológicos em países do Mercosul o Instituto de Tecnologia Industrial (INTI), na Argentina e o Instituto de Pesquisa Tecnológica (IPT), no Brasil com foco na gestão de projetos de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (P&D), no nível institucional. Identifica na literatura áreas e temas pelos quais é possível analisar a Gestão Institucional de Projetos de P&D (GIPPD), para então voltar-se ao estudo da história das duas instituições, contextualizando-as e identificando pontos de identidade e diferenciação. Elabora uma pesquisa de campo utilizando-se de entrevista estruturada, a partir do mapeamento que resultou na solução gráfica representativa dos temas identificados no estudo da literatura e dos documentos: visão geral da GIPPD e seu funcionamento em cada instituição; estrutura organizacional; projetos de P&D e o planejamento institucional; Gestão Institucional; resultados efetivos dos processos; comunicação entre os atores dos projetos e a instituição e experiências adquiridas na instituição. As entrevistas foram dirigidas numa proporção de um quarto à Alta Direção (AD), um quarto aos Gerentes Funcionais (GF) e dois quartos aos Gerentes de Projeto (GP). A discussão dos resultados, facilitada pela metodologia e a tabela dinâmica empregadas, permitiu que se concluísse pela nãoexistência de uma GIPPD estruturada nas instituições estudadas, embora os entrevistados considerem válida a sua implantação nas suas organizações. Observa-se que a estruturação de GIPPD em qualquer instituição deverá levar em conta sua cultura institucional, sua história, seu quadro funcional, sua estrutura e seu mercado, no sentido amplo, embora elas venham a ter sempre um conjunto básico de áreas e temas comuns.

Using certain practices for managing projects is a critical factor in successfully executing projects. For a firm where there are few set practices by the organization for managing projects, project managers have to create their own practices with varying degrees of success. Experienced project managers often have had plenty of time to develop fully functioning practices whereas new project managers struggle to find any practice to use. This thesis examines how learning from previous projects at Saab Dynamics can improve the project management practices project risk management and intra-project communication. Further, this thesis proposes how Saab Dynamics can improve continuous risk management and intra-project communication.  A qualitative approach is utilized for this thesis where the data is collected from five separate interviews with project managers from various development projects at Saab Dynamics. The result from the interviews partly contains successful practices used by project managers, such as how to integrate sub-projects or how to manage risks continuously, but also highlights issues for the projects. These findings are analyzed by applying relevant research from the fields of learning in project-based organizations, project risk management and intra-project communication which resulted in a discussion and conclusion providing various recommendations for Saab Dynamics to improve each project management practice.  Key findings include that functions are needed to facilitate learning and how post-project reviews need to be structured to transfer tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge, where focus needs to be on documenting using stories. Further, this thesis utilizes a model for risk maturity with five steps where only the top two allow for continuous risk management. To progress to these steps the importance of building a risk culture is recognized where the issue is in communicating the set process of risk management to project managers. Here, having a risk manager is identified as important. Intra-project communication focuses on the areas of information distribution, sub-project integration and communication planning. It was found that the information distribution needs to be balanced between forced and voluntary communication. Moreover, five mechanisms for integration are covered where some are more important for complex projects and some during high uncertainty. Lastly, a model for a communication plan is presented.